In this chapter, we will diseuss the eoncept of eonditional probability of an event given that another: vent has occurred, which will be helpful in understanding the Baye’s theorem, multiplication rule of probability and independence of events. We will also study random variable, its probability distribution; mean of probability distribution, PROBABILITY ITOPIC 1] Basic of Probability and Conditional Probability SOME BASIC DEFINITIONS Experiment An operation which can produce some well-defined outcomes is called an experiment. Random Experiment An experiment is called random experiment, if it satisfies the following two conditions {) Tehas more than one possible outcomes. (i) Its nor possible eo predict the outcome in advance. eg. When a far coin is tossed, it may turn up a head oF til but we ate not sure which one of these results will be actually obtained. Outcomes and Sample Space A possible result of random experimentis called its outcome. The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called its sample space. It is usually denoted by S. Each element of a sample space is called a sample point or an event point. eg The sample space of tossing a coin is S=(H. T}. Trial When a random experiment is repeated under identical conditions and it does not give the same result each time but may result in anyone of the several possible outcomes, then each such action is ealled a wial and the outcomes are called cases. The number of times the experiment is repeated, is called the ‘number of trials, eg. One toss of a coin is a trial, when the coin is tossed 1 times. & CHAPTER CHECKLIST + Basic of Probabi Conditional Prol * Multiplication Theorem on Probability and Independent Events © Theorem of Total Probability and Baye’s Theorem » Random Variable and Its Probability DistributionEvent ‘A subset of the sample space associated with a random experiment is called an event. eg. On tossing a coin, we have sample space §'={H, T} The event of getting a head is given by F = (11) Cleatly, ES, so B = {#1} isan event ‘TYPES OF EVENTS (i) Impossible and Sure Events’The empry set and the sample space § describe events (as 5 and 6 are also subset of 5). The empty set is called an impossible event and whole sample space 5 is called the sure eg, When we throw, adie, then the event of getting number greater than 6 is a impossible event and the event of getting a number les than 7 isa sure event. (Gi) Simple Event Ian event has only one sample point of a sample space, then it is called a simple or elementary event. eg Let adie is thrown, then sample space S=11,2,3,4,5,64 Again, lec A = cvent of geting 3 = (3) Here, Aisa simple event (Gi) Compound Event If an evene has more than one sample point, then it is called a compound event. ‘eg, In the experiment of tossing a coin twice, the ‘events E = exactly one head appeared and F = atleast one head appeared are compound ‘events. The subsets of S associated with these events HT’, TH) and F = (HT, TH, HH} (iv) Equally Likely Events ‘The given events are said wo be equally likely, ifnone of them is expected to eccur in preference co the other. ‘eg. In throwing an unbiased dic, all the six Faces are ‘equally likely 9 come, Mutually Exclusive Events Two or mote events are said to be mutually exclusive, ifthe happening of one ‘excludes the happening of the other ic. if no two of them can occur together. If A and B are mutually ‘exclusive events, then (AM B) = 6. ‘eg. In throwing die, all the 6 faces numbered 1 10 6 are mutually exclusive, fanyone ofthese faces comes, the possibilty of others in the same rials ruled ou. © (vi) Exhaustive Events A set of events are said to be exhaustive, if one of them necessarily occurs Whenever the experiment is performed. Let Ey, Ey...E, be subset of sample space S. Then, events E,, Eye E., a¥@ exhaustive events WE, UE,0..UE, 5. eg In the experiment of throwing a dic, ,2,3,4, 5,6) Let £, = event of getting an even number (ii) Complement of an Event Let A be an event ina sample space, then complement of Ais the set ofall sample points, which are notin Aand itis denoted by Aor A, inne Sue Ab ‘eg: In the random experiment of throwing.a die, the sample space 5 = (1,2, 3.4,5.6) and if we define the ‘event as getting multiple of 3, chen complement of Bie F=(124,5} PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT If there are m elementary equally likely events associated with a random experiment and m of them are favourable co an event A, then the probability of happening or occ of A is denoted by P(A) and defined as ‘Number of elementary events favourable to event A Total aumber of elementary events to the experiment Note @osAayst @ Probatiy of impossible event is to (i Probabity of sure events 1 9 PQuAy= PAnay=0 (a PAT =PIA) (7) Sometimes, we nave to select objects tom dsinetabjact, then we ue the formas, 0, = — PE Toacoi A coin has wo sides, head and ta. Ian expriment SY cnsite of mee tan ane coin thon cons re sonadered ‘dst. Kat ohernis tated (0 Sample space of can = (71 (0 Sompespace eva coe = 1.) (HIATT i sample space fee cor SION H TIAA TAD. (AT DUT ANAT THAT LD Die Ale has sic faces mathed 1, 2.3, 4, Sand 6. ne have ‘mote than ane dle, tn al ice are considered as dine, ‘not otherwise state. (0) Sample space of de = (1, 2.3 4,5,6) (i Sample space of wo ce 0.0, 0.3, 0.9, 4, 20, 22,29 2a, 2. Bue2eaane 9, 0.8) 9), - 9) 4.439) 4 8) 9, 9), 9), « 2.8) 3.6] 8) 8) 4 & 6 ( 50.62.69 64,6, 60, 62,169, Al, 6 Playing Cards ‘A pack of playing cards hes 52 cards. There are 4 suits ramly spade, neat, clamond and club, each hawng 13 Cards. There are tho colours, red (heart and diamend) and back (spade and club), each having 26 cad In 13 cards ofeach sue, there ate 3 face cares namely king, quoen and jack, so ther ao al 12 face cares. 12 face ‘cards along wth 4 ace cards ae together known 33, 16 honour cards, 2. 4368, hing, 4 queen and 4 ck Cards & ae % 2 t t Mowe Danond chs spice 3 3 8 EXAMPLE |1| 4 cards are drawn from a well-shulffled ‘eck of 52 cards. What is the probability of obtaining 3 diamond cards? Sol: Total numberof carde in a deck = 52 Ieiven] “otal numberof way of selecting cards out of 52 cards nis)="C, Let = event of geting 3 diamond and one anather ead Thea, n(E)= Nex "Cy nie) PCC “+ Required probebibity, () = guirod p fee Important Results on Probability 1. Addition Theorem of Probability (0) For evo evems Aand 3. P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B)~ P(A B) Tf A and B are mutually exclusive events, then [For mutually exclusive events, P(A B) =0) (Gi For three events 4, 8 and C, P(AUBUC)= PA) + MB) + PIC) = PUAN B)~P(BNC) = PANO + PAD BOO) IFA, BandC are mutually exclusive events, then P(AUBUC)=MA)+ PB)+ PO) {for mutually exclusive event, PAN B)= PBC) = PCN A)= AN BNO) = 0) 2. IFA and B are two events associated with a random experiment, chen (B)- P(A B) (A) P(ADB) man Buda) (Aye PLB) =20AB) (iv) P(AN B)=1- P(AUB) P(AUB)=1-P(ANB) i) P(A) (AN B+ PANE) (vii) P(B)= P (An B)+ P(BN A) Plexactly one of A, B occurs) P(A) + P(B) - 2P(ANB) P(Av B)- P(An B) 3. IFA, Band C are three events, then ‘Pleactipone of A B.C oon) = P(A)+ P(B) + PC)-2P (AM B)-2P(BOC) =2P(ANC)+3P LAN BAO) Pa) 4. PA= EXAMPLE |2| If A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.42, P(B) = 048 and P(AM 5) =0.16, then find PALS). Sol. Given, P(A)= 042, P(8)=048 and P(ANB)= 0216 +: P(AUB)= P(A) + PB) ANB) =042 4048-016 =0 90-016 = 0.74 EXAMPLE |3| There are 25 tickets bearing numbers from 1 to 25. One ticket is drawn at random. Find the probability that the number on it is a multiple of 5 or 6.Sok Let E = event of getting a multiple of 5 F =event of geting a rmultiple of and E OF = event of geting a multiple of and 6, Le. 30 s we fF = 151015, 20, 25) n= beF= (1238 24) and MEOF [vEOF <1. Required probity, EUF)=HE)+ AF) EOF) CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IFA and B are ewo events associated with the same sample space ofa random experiment, then conditional probability f the event A given that B has occurred, «. P(AIB) is given by af 4) PUOB) a) Mm Probability of occurrence of event B, when A has already ‘occurred ie. P(B /A) is given by (2) PROM) provided P(A) #0 al” pay . provided P(B) #0 Properties of Conditional Probability Let A and B be the events of a sample space 5 of an cesperiment, then (@ PUS/A)=P(A/A)=1 (ii) IFA and Bare any two events ofa sample space and Cis an event ofS, such that P(C) #0, then. PAU BIC] =P (AIC) + P(BIC)—P (A 0 BIC) In particular, fA and Bare disjoint events, then f2et)af )os(2) a Gi) 4°18) =1— PAL By whee As complenent of A. tae hac erat ochte cons hen A450. METHOD TO SOLVE PROBLEM BASED ON CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY Tosa palens ben codons! pba, we we the ling sep 1. Firstly, write the sample space for given experiment and then assume che given events as A, B, which are associated with sample space. I, Find the probability of that event A or B, which is already occureed and find P(A7 8). IL, Find the required conditional probability by using suitable formula PAN B) 0(4)= PNB) 2) .aon 3)" PB) 4)" a) Note If elementary events ofthe sample space are nt equaly Ke, then rebabiies Plan 2) and P(A) or F(8) being alte scaring 5 =f, > anc EXAMPLE [4 If F(a) = ©, P (6) = 3 and PAB =z, then find () P(AOB) Gi) PCA/B) (iti) PB/A). ——_INCERT) Sol. Given, Pays P(B) Sandr(ausynd 0 PAG B= P(A)# PCB) = P(A BY 2.8 won’ =P(ANB) = nann=5 P(ang=* (ans Pind) (4) ww o(2)-P8e B)_ Plans) on (3) EXAMPLE |5| Two dice are thrown. Find the probability of getting an even number on first die, if the outcomes on the two dice always exhibits a sum of 8. Sol. Here, wodice are thrown, So, sample space is (o.0.0.2.0.3.0.8).0.5).06). (23), (2.29(2,3)424)(2.5)42.9), 5 =[60.42.69.69.65.60. 1). 2408,9).4.4).4,5).449) (s1.6.2)45.9.15..65).6.0), Wc. 2).(63) (68).465). mS) =36 Let A = event of getting an even number on first die (23), (2.29(2,8)424) (2.5426), be A= H(0,06.2404,3)60),45).(49), 61.66 2,.169.(64).(65).16.6) m(A)=18 and B= event of getting a sum of 8 =(2.0.8.9.64.41.(5.31.6.2) 4a)=5and ‘Since, we have to find the conditional probal {getting an oven number on frst di, when the dice always exhibits a sum of B ~ seu psbny = (2) PANS) _ 306 3 AB) 56 EXAMPLE |6| Given that the two numbers appearing on throwing two dice are different. Find the probability of the events (@) the sum of numbers on the dice is 4. (Gi) the sum of numbers on the dice is not 4. INCERT] Sol. Here, wo dice are thrown, so:numnber of outcomes in the sample space. $ = 6% 6 = 36 (equally likely sample events) ie. m(S)= 35. Let E be the event of geting sum ofthe numbers on the dice is 4 and F be the event that numbers appearing on the two die are different Then, £= (0, 9.(2.2).(8 0) Sme)=3 (0. 2.4.3) (4, 4), 5), 8), (2.0.23)... (25).(2 6) and Pe /GXG2E9.69,69) 4.0.6. 2),4,3.4.5) 440), 61,6. 2.6.9.6.9,6.6), fone awaentes | = nte)=30 Here, EOF =((3,(8 = 2 _ Number of fave =Total mumber of outcomes 36” 6 ne) outcomes _30_ 5 and P(E NE 368 (0 The proabity thatthe su of numbers an the dice shoving dierent mabe is p(B) MEOD 81 FRR) 5615 (a) Te probity tht the sum of numbers on the dice showing ciferent mmbersis a EXAMPLE |7| Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head, toss it again but if it shows tail, then throw a die. Find the conditional probability of the event that ‘the die shows a number greater than 4° iven that there is atleast one tail. (NCEIT; Delhi 2014C] ‘Sol. The outcomes ofthe experiment can be represented i the following tee diagram. “The sample space Sof the experiment is given as $= AEH), (HT) (T,2) (7,247, 3), (7.4.7, 9).(7,6)) a) Head (a wn a «2 wa vs as ws) ca) The probabilities ofthese elementary events are 7 7 1 a eH Heas(+) “e a #9 a fhe 0.2) 1 an “al We 7.3) Sas ao Consider the following events the die showe a number greater than 4 there is atleast one tail. andWe have, (7.5. (7.9). B= (HT), (1,1) (T, 2)47, 9) (7, 4) (T, 9. (T 9} and A. = ((T,5}.(T.90) AB)= PU T)FPUT. D}+ PUT. 24 PUT. DE + PAT, 4))+ PUT, 5+ PUT, 6} and AA 7 B)= PUT, S)}+ PUT, SE nn mt 8) 2 aa iso Note Here, the eeentary events ate nat equally Hey. So, we cannot say that 6) = 2 PA 8} TOPIC PRACTICE 1 | OBJECTIVE TYPE QUESTIONS 1 Adieis thrown once. Let Abe the event that the number obtained is greater than 3. Let Bbe the event that the number obtained is less than 5. ‘Then, P(AU B)is [allindia 2020) 2 3 2 w2 wo @r 2 From the set (42, 8,4, 5), wo numbers a and 6(@ #5) are chosen at random. The probability that Zs an integer, is tein 2020) 1 1 1 3 we we Ss 2 3. Three dice are thrown simultaneously. The probability of obtaining a total score of Sis [Dethi 2020} 5 1 ox of 1 1 = oF of 4 Acardis picked at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Given that the pieked card is a queen, the probability of this card to be a card of spade is [alltndia 2020) ? 1 fi ot ot @s VERY SHORT ANSWER Type Questions 5 Events £ and F are such that P (not E or not F) = 025, State whether E and F are mutually exclusive, 6 se{ Ap msrenpovesae{ ra, SHORT ANSWER ‘Type I Questions 7 Three distinct numbers are chosen randomly from the first 50 natural numbers, Find the probability that all the three numbers are divisible by both 2 and 3 {Dethi 2020) 8 Find P(B/ A) + PLA/ B)) iF PLA) = 53, PUB) = 3 and (ALB) = 3, PALA =s {Dethi 2020} 9. ‘The probability that atleast one of the two events Aand B occurs is 0.6. If And Boceur simultaneously with probability 0.3, then. evaluate P(A) + P(B). INCERT Exemplar 10 If P(not A) =07, PB) =0-Tand P{B/A)=05, then find P{A/B), SHORT ANSWER Type IT Questions If Ablack and a red die are rolled together Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, glven that the red die resulted in a number Tess than 4 (case 2018) (allindia 2019) 12. Given that E and Fare events such that 5 PCF) = 0.3 and P(E oF) = 0.2. rr mer B LPy= INCERT 8, P(B) = 0 Sand =) =0.4,then find the value of P(A B) 3 INCERT] 14 PB) 1 4 (4/8) =1and P(AvB)=4,then 3 P(A/a)= Sand (Av B)=4 find P(AUBY + P(A’). INCERT Exemplar} PUATB') PBA, INCERT Exemplar!16 18 2 2 24 Aand B are two events such that P(A) #0. rnd 2) ir A () AisasubsetofB (ji) ANB=@.— INCERT] fair die is rolled. Consider the following events A=Q46),B= (49) and C= (34,56) Find () P(AUB/C) (i) PAN B/C) Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two children, ‘then what is the conditional probability that both are gis, given that () the youngest is a girl?” (i) atleastoneis a gin!?—— [NCERT;Delhi2014] Acouple has 2 children, Find the probability that both are boys, ifit is known that () one of them is a bos. (i) the older child is a boy, Wethi 201401 Acouple has two children. Find the probability that both children are males, if tis known that atleast one of the children is male. (NCERT] ‘Two coins are tossed once, if F: tail appears on ‘one coin and F: one coin shows head, then find 45) Adic is thrown three times. Events A and Hare defined as below A: 4oon the third throw B: Gon the first and 5 on the second throw. Find the probability of 4, given that Bhas already occurred. INCERT] Adie is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 8. What is. the conditional probability that the number 5 hhas appeared atleast once? INCERT] Ablack and a red die are rolled, Find the conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9, given that the black die resulted inas. INcERT ‘An instructor has a question bank consisting (of 200 easy true/false questions, 200 difficult true/false questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 difficult multiple choice questions. [Fa question is selected at random from the question bank, then what is the probability that it will be an easy question, given thatit is amultiple choice questions? (NCERT] 7 Ina college, 70% students pass in Physics, 78% students pass in Mathematics and 10% students fail in both. One student is chosen at random. What is the probability that i) he passes in Physics and Mathematics? (i) he passes in Mathematics, given that he passes in Physics? (ii) he passes in Physics, given that he passes in Mathematics? In ahostel, 60% of the students read Hindi newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and 20% read both Hindi and English newspapers. A student is selected at random, () find the probability that he/she reads neither Hindi nor English newspaper. i) if he/she reads Hindi newspaper, then find the probability that she reads English newspaper. (Gi) ithe/she reads English newspaper, then find the probability he/she reads Hindi newspaper. INCERT; Delhi 2011} Consider the experiment of throwing a die, if multiple of 3 comes up, then throw the die again andif any other numbers comes, then toss a coin, Find the conditional probability of the event ‘the coin showsa tail’, given that ‘atleast one die shows 3”? INCERTI HINTS & SOLUTIONS (@ Wehave, A= (4.5.6) and B= (2.44) Now, (AU B)=P(A)+F(B)= ANB) a3 oy aoe 6 (o) We have cots of ruber {1,2,3, 4,5}. Sample space of chaosing two numbers Required probability (@) Three dice are thrown simultaneously favourable 1.1.3) (0,3. 9)..1. 0.0. 2.2)02, 1.2) @2y ‘Total numberof outcomes Required probabiiy= $= 2fe) Let A be the event that card draven is a spade and & be the event that card drawn is aqueen. We have a total (of 13 spadee and 4 queen and one queen is from spade. L sad an=Z (3) PAB) vst 1 a)” ma) Tama Given, PlaotF or not F)=0.25 = OREUF)=RENFY PUE AE) + P(E AF): PEN F)=1- PEO EY PCE F)=1- 025207520 Hence, Eand F ate not mutually exchusive. A HAnB, coven 1(4}> may TASS ay ane) 8 = B29), wm) > o2)> 209 125 Hence proved. 7. ‘ree distinct numbers are chosen from first 50 natural numbers in *C, ways. Total numbers which ix divisible bby 2 and 3 from first 50 natural numbers is 6,12, 18,24, 30, Soy sxtxe 1 + Required probability = 7o# = S*7*6- = 1 Eecuired pr Be, Soxaoxas 350 Wetare, a)e2, AB)ad a3 snd rave) =2 We know that AAUB)= P(A) + (8) = ANB) 3 so 2- mans) 5 231 io _ Hans) , NAB) Nowin ssa) + n(4 r= ASOD Roe aon ao, to. dl7 Sno” 253° 4 12 3 > Aan-5 . We know that AU denotes the gecurrence of atleast tone of A and Band A 7 Bedenotes the occurrence ofboth ‘Aland B,simultancously. Then, P(A UB) =O6and FLA AB) =03 + RAUB)=A)+ B)- NAO) 06 A) + AB) - 039 F(A) + AB)= 09) =P AEM =09_ _ Fs A) 1~ AA) and 8) =1-AB) = AG) +PB)~ 2-09-11 Given, A") =07,9(8)= 07 and (2) 08 Cleasy, HA) =1= A’) =1~07 = 08 BY, Maas) Now, v3) mans) 03 3 Mans=01s °(4) FANS) 035 >9(4)-2 3) mm 07 Nad ie Let us denote the numbers on black die by Bye and the numbers on re die by By “Then, we get the fllowing sample space. 5a [Be RMB RB By BB. - (ByRy), ns (BR) ABR). (BR) Clearly. aS) =36 Now, let Abe the event that sum of ruber obtained ‘on the die is # and be the event that red die shove a ‘umber less than 4 = 2 ‘Then, A = {(B,,R,), (BuRz),(ByRs).( By Rs), (ByRe)} and p= {(8-BMB,Ry)BRelABy R83.) (BR) - SFLRNB BBR) SS ANB= (BR) (BeR I Now. reed potatliy, 2 A RAnm 21 (Gs 36 2g! Snoop nt [Am Zant] Hint (4.048) = P(A) x P(B/A) and (AW B)= P(A) + P(B)~ P(A OB) Ans. 0.98] Hae) =3,014/B)= Land RAUB) ANB) CB) 2 Rane) = Ma/B) P18) = 2x2 Also, P(A) = P(A)+ PCB) PAB) matty det Since, PA/B)= io =nA- A) A) = RAN) = MAUBy ERAT.15 minre( of 16. Hint P(ANB) DeAAeBT Iau 2] T-renn- Aan |e (a)tan 01 699 17. Given events aze A= (24,6), B=[6.5}and C= (34.56) Sample space, $=, 2.3.4,5,6} Now, AUB={24,56,ANB= (4) (AUBINC = (24,5. 6104,5.6}= (4.5, 6 is} AM BAC)=1 {AV Maviind mtavenncias € RC) Ca) aie 8 te ANB) RANENC)_ AnsncyAs) ody RO) OTS) aan “a6 18. Let B represents elder child which is a boy and b represents younger child which is also a boy. Also, G represents elder child which is » gist and g represents yomger cid whichis da gt Tra fail has two chien, then all posible cases are 52 (ah By Gy 3) fo Let ws define vent Ath both chien te gil then A={Gs} = nA)=1 (9 Le, be event that youngest child ia gi then (4) A408) =) FED 2, = (ig. Ge) 9 MED=2 = 2 Now, wd And fa) omangy=t tins, {A} RADE 1 E) ME) 122 2. Required probabil (i) Let B, be event that atleast one child is git. ‘Then, E, = (Bg, Og, Gb} = ,)=3 9 AE)=2 Now, (AN E,)= {63} MANE, Thus (2)- F Required probability = Mane) vt 1 mE) 3 in 20. 24. 24. serves Quen 8 [Ans 2 cS} Hint A =both children are male and B=atleost one children is male P(Ay= PaoB FB 5 xow.9(4)= wnt 6)=3.00 nenres sont (2) EEO ta An Hint P(B)=—., AN 8) (B)= SB ae sone(S) team] Hint Let £: sum of numbers is 8 and F : number § appears atleast once re A=, te) Wanrenei=2 red ptr 5) [ae Hint and P(A). Now, 9(4)-2408 Ans HI 3) Pw 3 Total number of questions, ‘S)=300 + 200+ 500 + 400 =1400 Let Ebe the event tht question ig easy and F be the ten that question i2iutpe dice. Then, of) Nomber of easy questions Total number of questions 3) ‘Also, m()= 300 + 400 = 900 ey Nae of ip ie quests Total numberof questions xf) _ 900.9 iS) 1400 14 PE) oo, my ‘oo 7 and P(E OF) _ Total number of easy multiple choice questions - “Total number of questions 500 Too o(z)-nean F) PF)(8) = Probability of students passed in Mathematics =7500 (A' 7B’) = Probability of students fil in both = 2° PA) =1- AUB) =H AaB) (© P(be passes in Physics and Mathematics) = MA MB)= MA) + MB)- MAUS) (ii) Moe passes in Mathematics given that be passes in Physice) 55 -(2)-2408 100, “Nay ray 0 (ii) Pe passes in Physics given that he passes in Mathematics) = 5s wo, 75 100 [TOPIC 2] Multiplication Theorem on 27. Let = stent reading Hind newspaper and = student reading English newpaper Let a(S) =100, then n() = 0, andn(ff ME =m) 745) 7 109 nH) 20 Tas) 0075 (0) Rogie probability = Aatudent reads neither Hinds or English newspape) SAH nF) =A UEY=1- AH UE) =1-[ FH) + AE) AH) 3, 2_17. 4.1 its and PUTA E)= (i) Requited probability = Astudent reads English newspaper, if he/she reads Hind newspaper) E)_ MEOH) 1s n) ray 35 3 (Gi) Required probability = Pstudent seads Find ‘newspaper when i is given that he/she reads English newspaper) HY AMOR) 1 =) RE) 28 2 28, Similar as Example 7. (Ans. 0] Probability and Independent Events MULTIPLICATION THEOREM Let A and B be «wo events associated with a random ‘experiment, then P(AnB) P(A): P(A), where P(A) #0 P(B): P (ALB), whese P(B) #0 Here, AM B denotes the simultaneous occurrence of che events A and B. The event A B is also writen as AB. The above result is known as the multiplication rule of probability. EXAMPLE |1| Find the probability of drawing a diamond card in each of the two consecutive draws from a wwoll-shuffled pack of cards, if the card drawn is not replaced after the first draw. Sol. Let be the event of drawing a diamond card inthe first draw and ibe the event of drawing a diamond card inthe second draw: Then, P(A)= = 2 ‘After demwing a diamond card in fist draw, 51 cards are ief\out of which 12 cards sre diamond ea (B/A)=Probabilty of drawing a diamond card in ‘second draw when a diamond card has already been drawn in first draws ( 4) ws = (2)j-B-4 a) ai ‘Now, required probability = P(AnB)= FAY (2) AEXAMPLE |2| A bag contains 19 tickets, numbered from 1 to 19. A ticket is drawn and then another ticket is drawn without replacement. Find the probability that both tickets will show even numbers. Sol. Let A be the event of drawing an even numbered ticket fn fret drow and i be the event of drawing an even smumbered ficket in the second draw. Then Required probability = P(A .B)= P(A): P(B/A) -.@) Since, there are 19 tickets numbered to 19 i the bag, ‘out of which 9are even numbered vi. 4,6 8,10, 12, 14, Ioan 18, 2 ‘Therefore, P(A)= (=5 Since, the ticket drawn in the first draw is no therefore socond ticket drawn is frm the remaining 18, tickete, out of which § are even numbered * (2) S.4 A Hence, roquited probability = P(A 0B) = P(A) P(B/A) o 44 p59 Multiplication Rule for More than Two Events Let E, F,Gand H be four events of sample space S. Then, E vi o£) of & 0 PMENFAM=Pe) “(E) (ea) ( PENFaGAH) srl) oe) faa] EXAMPLE |3] Three cards are drawn successively without replacement from a pack of 52 well-shuffled [from Bq.) cards, What is the probability that first two cards are king land the third card dawn is an ace? ‘Sol. There are 52 cards ina pack. and 5 event that the card drawn ie an ace. obability of drawing second king when one kking has already been drawn = 3 b> remaining cards are(52—1)= 51) {BIAA) =Probability of drawing third card to be an ‘ ace when two kings have already been drawn: Now. probability of getting first two eards are king and Ihinl eard isan ace = ANA NB) wv) ws tion theorem] EXAMPLE |4| Abagcontains 5 white, 7red and 8 black balls. If four balls are drawn one by one without replacement, then find the probability of getting all white balls. Sol. Let, B,C and D denote events of geting 2 white ball in firs, second, third and fourth draw, respectively. Then, required probability = P(A BCD) =P(A)P(BIA)PICIAMB)PIDIAM BAC) Ai) Now, P(A) = Probability of drawing a white ball in Gest draw -S-1 wa ‘When a white bal s drawn in the frst draw, there are 19balls left in the bag. out of which 4 are white. 4 * peiaye* (Bias Since, the ball drawn is not replaced, therefore after drawing a white ballin second draw. there are 18 balls left in the bag, out of which 3 are white 3.1 = PICIANB, Be After rang» white alin hid draw, there are 17 Bas et int ag out of which 2 are we 2 molAnanc)=2 7 ence, routed probability = P(A BCA) (A): FBLA) P(C/ ANB) P(DIA BNC) betta a TDs" 0 INDEPENDENT EVENTS ‘Two events A and B are said to be independent, ifthe ‘ccurtence of non-occurtence of one event does nor affect the occurrence or non-occurtence of another event. Two events E and F ate said to be independent, if 4g | P(E), provided P(E) #0 ~ 1G F In other words let Z and F be two event associated wid the same random experiment, then £ and F are said to be independent, if P(E F) = P(E). PAA). (E), provided PCF) #0.Some Important Results 1, Two events £ and F are said to be dependent, they ae not independent ie. P(EO F)# P(E): PF) 2. Two experiments are said to be independent, if for every pair of events E and F, where F is associated with the first experiment and F with the second experiment, the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of the events E and F's the product of P(E) and P(F) calculaced separately on the basis of two experiments. ie MEN P= ME) PP 3. Difference between independent events and mutually exclusive events (Term independent is defined in terms of probabiliy of events whercas mutually exclusive is defined in terms of subset of sample space. (Gi) Mutually exclusive events never have an ‘outcome common, but independent events. ‘may have common outcome. In other words, two independent events having, non-zero probabilities of occurrence cannot be mutually Exclusive and conversely ie. two mutualy ‘exclusive cvents having non-zero probabilities of occurrence cannot be independent. 4, Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually P(A): PC) (B)- PIC) and MAN BAC)= PLA): PB) PO) Ifatleast one of the above is not true for three given, events, then events are not independent. ie. dependent. PROPERTIES OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS IF A and Bare independent events, chen () A and Bate also independent events. (ii) A’ and B are also independent events. (ii) A’ and B” ate also independent events. EXAMPLE [5| An unbiased die is thrown twice. Let the event A be ‘odd number on the first throw’ and 8 be the event ‘odd number on the second throw: Check the independence of the events A and B . Sol. On throwing adie twice, we get 36 elementary events of the experiment which are to be considered to be equally likely. Odd numbers are 1, 3 and. A)= P (odd number on the frst throw) lt 2 [possible outcomes (1 1), (1,2) (1,3). (1, 4), (1,5) (8) 6.2),6.2.(8.9,6.9(.5).6.0) (9.6.2), 6.3). (6.4). 5) and 6.6) ie. 18 outcomes] events are. 2). (0. 3).0,9) (80.6.3). 6.5)... 3) and (55) ie. 9 outcomes} Now, A4)-7(B) Thus, PAB) = PA) AB) Hence, A and Bare independent events. EXAMPLE |6| Two dice are thrown, find the probability of getting an odd number on the first die and a multiple of 3 on the other die. Also, show that both events are dependent. SOL Let Abe the event of geting an odd number on the first deand Bethe event of getting a multiple of 3 on the second die Onthrowing two dic, total outcomes = 36 Outcomes favourable to A.9 Bie. an odd number on fist die and 2 multiple of $on the other die are {0.23.0 .6,3).0,0.65.9).6,0) 2 RAB) Hence, A and are dependent evens Note 1A ar 8a two ceperdent eres, ten we cant apps) PANE) = PAP) EXAMPLE |7| If each element of a second order determinant is either zero or one. What is the probability that the values of the determinants is postive? Assume that the individual entries ofthe determinant are chosen independently, each value being assumed with probability V2. INCERT]Sol A second order determinant has four entries which may beOort ‘Total aumber of determinants = 2 =16 menameusonn ‘Som i} Since, each entry of the above determinant can be selected with probability 1/2 ‘Therefore, required probability oo dxtnd) 3 EXAMPLE [8] 4 and B throw a pair of dice alternately. ‘A wins the game, if he gets a total of 7 and B wins the game, if he gets a total of 10. If A starts the game, then find the probability that B wins. [Delhi 2016} Sok Here. n5)=6x6= 3% Let A-=Event of geting a sum of 7 in pair of dice (1.6) (2,5). (3.4). 6. 9.6.2) (4, 9) = maje6 rent of gelling a sum of 10in pair of dice =14.0.6,5).(6.4)) = nB=3 may 6 ot PAE ad -BB 3-4 mar bed ant pyar belt é ne Now: the probability that iA start the game, then B AB wins)= AN B)+ P(A BOA NB) +AU BO ANB Ans\+ = PIA) ACB) + P(A) PCA) PCB) + P(A\PCB)PA) PCB) AA) PB) + [events ae independent] 4,33 (8 nnn n\n, =3[n8s(2)+ | mp -S5(4).5 “nlim) 7 | TOPIC PRACTICE 2| OBJECTIVE TYPE QUESTIONS. 1 Abag contains 8 white, 4 black and 2 red balls. 1f2 balls are draven at random (without replacement) then the probability that both the balls are white, is (Delhi 2020) wd ot ot wt Fs 36 B u 2 Four cards are successively drawn without replacement from a deck of 52 playing cards. ‘The probability that al the four cards are king is © roma wom Tom Toms 3 three mutually independent events are A, B and G,then (2) PCB) = PEAY- PB PLANC)~ PLA)-PIC) ()FEn0)= F(R). C) (6) PAaBae)~ PLA) PIB) PIC) (€) Allof the above 4 If Aand B are two independent events with Pa) then P(A’ 0B) equals to INCERET Exemplar} 4 8 os ws 1 2 woz (2 5 Two events Aand Bare said to be independent, if INERT (2) And 2 are mutually exclusive (PLANE) lt- PLA)|NL- AB) (6) (4) = P08) (a) PLAys PDD VERY SHORT ANSWER Type Questions 6 Given two independent events 4 and 8 such that P(A) =0.3 and P(B) = 06, find P(A mB, {All India 2020) 7 Adie is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting an even number atleast once. INCERTI SHORT ANSWER Type I Questions 8 Two cards are drawn at random and without replacement from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that both the cards are black. INERT]9 Anum contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one afterthe other without replacement. What is the probability that both dravm balls ae black? 10 Adie marked 1, 2,3im red and 4,5, 6in green, is tossed, Let A be the event ‘numbers even’ and Bbe the event number is marked red’. Find ‘whether the events A and B are independent or hot {Delhiz019} 11 Prove that ifE and F are independent events, then the events E and F’ are also independent. [ethi 2017] 12 Adie, whose faces are marked 1,2, 3in red and 4,5, 6in green, is tossed, Let Abe the event “number obtained is even’ and B be the event “number obtained is red’. Find if and B are independent events {all nda 2017), 13. Adie marked 1,2, 3in red and 4, 5, 6in green is, tossed. Let A be the event, ‘number is odd’ and B be the event, ‘number is green!. Are A and B independent? INCERT] SHORT ANSWER Type II Questions 14 IfAand Bare independent events, then prove that Pla)= P(ANB)+ Plan B) PUALUB)= PMB) + Pda) + PA na) INCERT Exemplar! 15. Given two independent events 4 and Bsuch that P(4)= 0.3 and P() = 06 Find (@ P(andnotB) Gi) PAorB} 16 If A and B are two independent events, then prove that the probability of oceurrence of at least one of A and Bis given by 1 P(A’)-P(B’) {all india 2017¢} ‘ 1 17 Af Aand B are two events such that P(A) dand Pans) =4 PUB) not B) then find P (not A and 2 INERT] 18. One card is drawn at random from a \well-shufled deck of 52 cards. Events E and F are defined below E: the card drawn is a spade F:the card drawn is an ace (Check whether the events are dependent or independent. INCERT] 19 Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box containing 10 black and § red balls. Find the probability that (9 both balls are red, (i) first ball is black and second ball is red. INERT] 20 Probability of solving specific problem independently by Aand Bare 1/2 and 1/3, respectively. If both try to solve the problem independently, then find the probability that () the problem is solved. (i) exactly one of them solves the problem. INceRT] 21 Acan hit a target 4 times out of 5 times, B can hit the target 3 times out of d times and can hit the target 2 times out of 3 times. They fire simultaneously. Find the probability that (9 any two out of A, B and will hit the target. (i) none of them will hit the target. 22. Aand B throw a pair of dice alternately. A wins the game, ifhe gets atotal of 6 and Bwins, if she gets a total of 7. If Astarts the game, then find the probability of winning the game by Ain third throw of the pair of dice. 23. Aand B throw a pair of dice alternately, till one fof them gets a total of 10 and wins the game. Find their respective probabilities of winning, if Asstarts first. lallindia 2016) LONG ANSWER Type Questions 24 ‘Two dice are thrown together and the total score is noted. The events E, F and G are‘a total of #2 total of 9 or more’ and ‘a total divisible by5’, respectively. Calculate P(E), P(F) and P(G) and decide which pairs of events, ifany are independent? INCERT Exemplar] 25 If and B are two independent events such that 1 P€nB)= 2 and PAB) = 1, then find PCA) and P(E). (etki 20151 HINTS & SOLUTIONS | 1. (@)We have 3 white 4 black and 2 red balls. Total numberof balls =(3-+4 + 2)=9 ‘ovo balls are drawn at random (Without replacement) Then, the probability that both the balls are white2 (@)Let A denotes the event that the first card is king ‘Bdenotes the event thatthe second card is kang. CC denotes the event that the third card is king ‘nd D denotes the event thatthe fourth card i king. Now, MANBAC ND) = A) BIA) x C/A) x AD/ANBAC) 3. We know, three events A, Band C ate sid to be soutually independent if PAN B)= MAY FB MANC)=MAy-AC) BOC) = HB-AC) and RANOC)= MA)-AE)-MC) any one ofthe above conditions snot true For thece sven event, we sy thatthe events are not mately Independe 4 PAB) =1- AUB =1-[P(A)+ 9(6)~ (4B) P(AG B= PA) PL = [ES 5.) Aand Bare independent f P(A 0.8) = A) A) P(A’ BY) = PAUBY =1- RAUB) 1=[P(A) + P(B)= P(A NB) =1-a)~ 18) + AA) AB) = [Fay] - A] 6. Given, HA) =0Sand PUB) =06 Now Ra‘ |=P(A UY =1- [AB] (PA) +1) = AB) = 03+ 06~03%06} "A and Bare independent events PANE) =PANBY = {9-015} = 072} = 028 7. P(getting even number on adie)= 62 Probability of getting an even number in none of the thraw _sRequired probability = 10. Thera 2 ck carina pack of cards eguedpotbiy = PE and) r oneal) nes) has Pt car de lack TNF Aca Sad tere Narnber of fav Total number oF out rable outcomes [afer ding 1 ask ad hee rile 25 Back ed eqite pai, £ ne-a(2) as as Sr 102 2 [am 3] Given, adie marked 1,23 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green. is toned. Clearly, $= 24.4.5.6) Also, we have the following events A the number is even and Bi the aumber is red "Now, two events A and Bare independent, if AANB)= PA)-AB) A= (46) = MA) FEAF Hint P (BB ‘Since, P(A MB) # P(A): P(B) “Therefore, Aand Bare nt independent. Given, © and F ave independent evens, therefore FEOF )=AE) AF) ® Now, we have PUENF')+ EOF (E) = MEOP)=RE)-RENF) = PUENF')= P(E) PE JF ) = REA) = REAP) > PUENE * EPUE’) Jo and F ‘re also independent events {using £9.) Hence proved.12, When a dies thrown, then sample space is S= 0284.56) => 5)=6 ‘Also, A: number is even and B: number is re. Am [246,80 23) nd AN B= (2) Now, P(A) x P(8) = P(AOB)2 P(A)x FOB) ‘Thus, A ond 8 are not independent events 1B, When a die is thrown, then sample space, S=123456) > m(5)=5 ‘Also, A: Number ix odd and B: Number is green B48) B= HS end A= seen Silane eb mampatisaat ANB) * P(A) AB) Thus, Aand Bare not independent events 14. @) Hint RHS = FA. 8)+ LAB) = NA)-P(B)+ MA)-PB)= PLA)LPH)+ AB) = AVLAB) H1- FB] = PA) = LS (i) Similar as part (@, 15. Hint (9 P(A and not B)=P(A)= P(A AB) =03~(03)(06) [+ Aand Bare independent events) (A)+ PB)=-P(AB) 3406-018 [Ans. () 0.12 (i) 072) 16, Required probability = (AU) = P(A)+ F(B)—P{A)-7(8)= P(A) (41-8) PLAYPIB') AB’) +1 I-PUB Y= (A)]=1-M ANB) Hence proved. 17. Hint P (not A and not B)= P(A’) PB) [b:A and Bare independent events] ~n- aan r0oy=(1-2)(0-4) [ane 3] 18, Hint e(2)= 1 ee) = 2 (i) P(Aor nenn-t is Now, P(E MF) = P(E)x P(F) [Ams. E and P are independent events] 19. Hint () PRR) i PBR) Aa)=! and B)=1-1)=1- (6 Piprobtem is solved) = Patleast one of them wil salve the problem) = 1-P{none of them salve the pola) =~ PA)-PB) {And Bare independent events then A and B are alo independent evens] 12d? Pa aa (0? (exactly one of them salves the problem) = AAI) + AA AB PA) PH) + PA) PB [ Aand Bare independent evens, then A.B and A, Bare ao independent evens] 2 3 (0 P (any two of them hit the target) Plan anc) KANEnc)+AAnancy = P(A)-P(8)-PE)+ PLAY: POB)- POC) + PG) P(BPO) Independent events} 4 Sty 595, Rs, bs a rails ) aS, ooo wow (i) P (none of them bit the target) = PCA)-A(B)- AC) [: A Band C are independent events] Aa 22. Hint P(4) Required probability = P(2)-P()-m.4) ‘ann, 76,24. Here, fs) =6x6=36 Let £ = Event of geting atotal 10 9) (5.5) (64) me . = ME 2: Meeting 2 total of 0) = 12) = 2D esting yan m(S) 36 12 and Poot geting ota of 1) PCE) nyai- belt BB 1 i and PVA ss not getting 10) = PSs nt getting 10) 3 Now. FA winning) = Ha) +AT A 0A) +AANEAANB A+ = LA) ADAB) ALA) + UAV ABV AA) BPA) ‘Thus, AA getting 10) = PUB getting 10) B Hence, the probabilities of winning A and B are Baal respectively, "ana spective gg “Two dice ae thrown together, so number of outcomes in the sample sonce i636 rf 2.2.€40).0.9) F = Total of 9 or more -{a0 (63).4,5).5.4)4 2} (6 4). 5115 6)465),46.8) = WF)=10 and G= Total divisible by 5 C9.41.23.6.2.6.9.66.9.6.9) = wi Fen (PriF)=9 ani (FaG)=9 Ako (F92)= (40.665) 9) SKE AOS ankEn rT =6 m3 MO) 362 me) ae 28) ont roy 8Q. soa neno=dek 5.73 ant F)-90)=2x 228 PUF)- AG). 5 a Here, we se that AF 0) # AUF): {G) [since only F and G have common events swonlyF and Gare used here] Hence, thee sno pair whichis independent. ‘Given, and # are wo independent events with RA on)= Zand HANI) <2 We know that, fA and Bare independent events, then Fi Band, Bare independent evens. 2 Now, MAnB)= 5 AB) NA)= = 2 = FEL HAN) = 2 = 28) ~ P(A) AB) = “ = Fay t= P= 2 = FA) PA) On subiracting Eq, (i) rom Eg. (i, we get «iy Now. on subsiuting the value of Van ka, () we get A 2 no-[Leno}.an-2 et P(B)= x, then [bes = 0x —(1+30%) = Bix? =e 44=0—9 (6x -T\Sx-4)=0 14 Lote > sob or SAB) 7 or 5 ex = BI] Now, if (6) =, then PLA) = using Fa. i] and if P(B)=4, then P(A) = PB) = 2, then F|TOPIC 3] Theorem of Total Probability and Baye’s Theorem PARTITION OF A SAMPLE SPACE Acer ofevents EE, ofthe sample spaceS, iit satisfies the following conditions @ E/E, 2088 pi felon (i) UE .0E, (i) PE)>OV I=L 20 In other words, the events Ey, Ey. Ey represent 2 partition of the sample space, if they are pairwise ‘exhaustive and have non-zero probabilities. Note Te parton ofa sample spaoe fe not unique. There ean be several partons ofthe same sample space. THEOREM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY Let By, Bayo} be partition ofthe sample space Sand suppose cha each of che events £,, E,,..,2, has non-zero probability of occurrence. Io €. Dp SH Ler A be any event associated with S, then P(A) = P(E\)- P (AIE\) + P(E,)- P(AIE,) +t PUE,): PUAIE,) 1 E, issaid to represent a partition =¥ repre) EXAMPLE [1[ Let bag A contains 4 black and 6 red balls andbag Scontains 7 black and 3 zed balls. A dieis thrown. If or 2 appears onit, then bag A is chosen, otherwise bag B. If two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) from the selected bag, then find the probability of one of them being red and another black. (Delhi 20151 Sol. Given, bag A =4 black and 6 sed balls and bog, B=7 black and 3 re balls, Let £, = the event that die show or 2 2, = the event that die show 3 or dor S or and E =the event that among two drawn balls, ‘one of them is red an other is black eyes Now, PE, [e-total number ina die esi] (getting one red and one black from bag A) (getting one red and one black from bag 5) 2x ke ‘Total probability, ene 2) nee nen E}enes {2} 2 (sxox2),4 (rxax2 xs }*6'( aoxs ax 109 4 X6%11 x10 (en: EXAMPLE [2| Abag contains (en +1) coins. Its known that (n=) of these coins have a head on both sides, ‘whereas the rest of the coins are far. A coins picked up at random from the bag and is tossed. Ifthe probability that , determine the value of. lallindia 201661 Sol. Number of coins with head on both sides =(n—1) Picking a coin with head on both sides icing a fair coin and A = Getting a head on tossing the coin nat Bnet 5 = fale AAIE,)=12 PLA) = PEALE, )+ ME, YPVAVE,) mot yy me2 tan Bev" bast 2 Waar) Sot ans) a2 = onemBAYE’S THEOREM UF Ey, Faye By, ane n nonempty events, which constiute a partition of sample space S, ic. Ey, Bayon E, are pairwise disjoint EGE, U.UE, 28 and PE) >0, i123, Also, let A be any event of non-zero probability, then P(E pAy= PEN PAD foe any 7 =1,2,3 005 SPE,)- PAE, or Let Fy, Fay EyvoesE, be m mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated with a random experiment. IFA is an event, which occurs together with E's. Then, P(E JAy= PE PALE) Yrie)) Pale, fa Here, events Ey, E, are called hypothesis. ‘The probability PCE;) is called che priori probability of the hypothesis £, and the conditional probability P(E,/A) is called a posteriori probability of the hypothesis E,Baye's theorem is abo called che formula for the probability of METHOD TO SOLVE PROBLEMS BASED ON BAYE'S THEOREM. To solve problems based on Baye’s theorem, we use the following steps 1. Identify che events, which constitute a partition of sample spaceS and name them Ey, EE, and son. IL. Assume the otherevent of non-zero probability 25-4 IL. Find the probabilities of Ey. Ey, Ej... IV. Find the conditional probabilities of A with Fy, En Ey, V. Use Baye’s theorem to find requited probability. i. PE, 1A). EXAMPLE |3| A box contains 4 orange and 4 green balls, another box contains 3 orange and 5 green balls, one of the two box is selected at random and a ball is dravm from the box, which is found to be orange. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first box. Sol. Let £, = event of selecting box E, = event of selecting box It and {A= event of drawing an orange ball, vow ME) Land RE) = 2 ‘Now, P(A /£,)= Probability of selecting an orange ball ‘from box | [total balls = 8 and orange balle= 4] and (A/£,)= Probability of selecting an orange ball from box It [total balls =8 and orange balls = 3} 3 robobilty that drawn ball fs from the fist box. R{E,)-ALE,) EAA LE) + PE) RATED Hence, the probability that the ball is drawn from: the fintboxi Note HAE) = AE) =P) = = PE. hen re 1e)= Pe 3 PEED EXAMPLE |4| There are three coins, one is 2 two headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows head. What is the probability ‘that it was the two headed coin?) (NCERT:All India 2014) Sol. tet us define the events 2 2, = selecting a two headed coin, selecting a biased coin, selecting an unbiased coin, head comes up. Here, ME,)= PE) = FUE) =183 [‘alleoins have equal chances] #(A/E,)= Probability that head comes up on a two headed coin ty that head comes up on 2 biased coin = 75100 sbabiity that head comes up on an ‘unbiased coin‘Now, by Baye's theorem, we get RE)-RAIE) mee [REORAE RE ATE me) a76,) | Hence, the required probability is 4 EXAMPLE |5| In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively, 30%, 50% land 20% of the bolts. OF their outputs, 3%, 4% and 7% respectively are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. Find the probability that this is not manufactured by machine B. lallindia 2015) "= bolt is manufactured by machine A .£, =bolt is manufactured by machine B Sol. Let 20 and Ae,)= am ‘Also, given that 3%, 4% and 1% bolts manufactured by machines A, Band C respectively ar defective. So. 34 {E) an = Sand xoa "LF i00 10), ‘Now, ftstly find the probability that selected bolt which fs defective is manufactured by machine Bis a 00 * i00 200 ‘Soy a0 20 0 ‘The probability that selected bolt which is defective is ‘not manufactured by machine B is 200 0 a 310 310 3T EXAMPLE |6| Three persons 4, B and C apply for a job of Manager in a private company. Chances of their selection (A, B and C) are in the ratio 1:2:4. The probabilities that A, B and C can introduce changes to improve profits of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0. respectively. If the change does not take place, find the probability that itis due to the appointment of C. (Delhi z0161 Sol. Let us define the following events A= selecting person A selecting person B selecting person C y= MOT 2 nelnn- Let E = person introduce the changes in ther profit wagons} fs ome and “The probability that change does not take place bythe appointment of C EXAMPLE |7| A letter is known to have come either from TATANAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the envelope, just ‘two consecutive letter TA are visible. What is the probability that the letter came from TATANAGAR? INCERT Exemplari etter has come from CALCUTTA ter has come from TATANAGAR wo consecutive letters (ie alphabets) TA are ‘sible on envelope 1 1 fe preoes{e] MEOE) 1 aE) 7 [7 pairs of consecutive eters are (CA, AL, LC, CU, UT, TT, TA]wna) MEE Ey ay 8 {Spal of consecutive letter ate TA. AT. TA, AN, NA, AG. GA, AR] ney = wont {using Baye's theorem] 2 25 ig 2x77 yi,2 Ste 3°7*o% 8 Bxtxe ei aii at hee FA cane TaTANAGAR a TOPIC PRACTICE 3 | OBJECTIVE TYPE QUESTIONS 1 The events Ei, £2... E, represent a partition of the sample space Sif @) EE = 912 hh 0) FURU. UF, = (© PAE) > Ofor alli =1.2.3,..0 @) Allofthe above 2 Let (££, Eq) be a partition of the sample space § and Abe any event associated with S, then (@) PLA) ~ PEE PLALED + PLE:)P(A/ES) + + PE PATE,) © P= FRENPAE,) © Bomn(a) and) ——_(@) None of these 3. IF, Ez, E, constitute a partition of sample space S and Ais any event of non-2er0 probability, then P(E,/ Ais equal to @ PEPE) topanyini.23, SPE NPLALE,) PEI YPEIPALE;) a ce) PEEYPCEA) co ay Ona (@) None ofthe above for anyi=1,2,3,-.9 SHORT ANSWER Type II Questions 4 Suppose that 5 men out of 100 and 25 women, cout of 1000 are good orators. Assuming that there are equal number of men and women, find the probability of choosing a good orator. (Deis 2020) 5 ‘Three machines F , Ez and E3 in a certain factory producing electric bulbs, produce 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, of the total daily output of electric bulbs. It is known that 4% of, the bulbs produced by each of machines £, and E, are defective and that 5% of those produced by machine £, are defective. IFone bulb is picked up at random from a day's production, then calculate the probability that itis defective. [Foreign 2015] 6 Suppose a girl throws a die. IFshe gets 1 oF 2, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of tlls. If she gets 3, 4, 5 or 6, she tosses # coin once and notes whether a hea. ‘tai'is obtained. If she obtained exactly one ‘tail, what isthe probability that she threw 3,4, Sor 6 with the die ? {cBse 2015) 7 bag contains red and 4 black balls, a second bag contains 3 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected al random and two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) both of which are found fo be red Find the probability that the balls are drawn from the second bag tall india 2019) 8 Abag contains 4 red and 4 black balls and another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is draven from the bag which is found to be red. Find the prababilty thatthe balls drawn from the frst bag. iNceRT 9 ‘There are three coins, First is a biased that comes up tails 60% of the times, second is also a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the times and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads. What isthe probability that it was the first coin? Wethi 2016) 10. Abag X contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls, while another bag contains 3 white balls and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn (without replacement) at random from one of the bags and were found to be one white and one black. Find the probability that the balls were drawn, from bag V. dia 2016]LONG ANSWER Type Questions 11 Bag 1 contains 3red and 4 black balls and bag I! contains 4 red and 5 black balls. One ball is transferred from bag Ito bag Il and then ball is «drawn from bag Il. The ball so drawnis found to be red in colour. Find the probability that the transferred ball is black. INCERT) 12. Inanswering a question on a rmultiple choice test,a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let 3/4be the probability that he knows the answers andt/4be the probability that he guesses. Asstiming that a student who guesses the answer willbe correct with probability 1/4 ‘What isthe probability that the student knows the answer, given that he answered it correctly? 13. Ashopkeeper sells three types of lower seeds Ay, Aand Ay They are sold as a mixture, where the proportions are 4: 4:2, respectively. The germination rates of the three types of sceds are 45%, 60% and 35%, Calculate the probability () of arandomily chosen seed to germinate (i) that it will not germinate given thatthe seed ‘sof type As (ii) that itis of the type Aa given that a randomly chosen seed does not germinate INCERT Exemplar! 14 Amanis known to speak the truth 3 out of 5 mes. He throws a die and reports that itis 1 Find the probability that it is actually 1 [Dethi 2014) 15 Alaboratory blood testis 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when itis infact present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healtiny person tested (Le. ifa healthy person is tested, then with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease) If 01% of the population actually has the disease, then what is the probability that a person has disease, given that his test result is positive? INCERT] 16 By examining the chest X-ray, the probability that TB is detected when a person is actually suffering is 0.99. The probability of an healthy person diagnosed to have TB is 0.001 Ina certain city, 1in 1000 people suffers from ‘TB. Aperson is selected at random and is diagnosed to have TB. What is the probability that he actually has TB? [NCERT Exemplar] 17 ‘Two groups are competing for the position on the board of directors of a corporation. The probability that the first and the second groups ‘will win are 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. Further, iF the first group wins the probability of introducing a new product is O.7and the corresponding probability is0.3, ifthe second ‘group wins. Find the probability that the new product introduce was by second group. [NCERT] 18 Anitem is manufactured by three machines, ‘A, Band. Out of the total number of items ‘manufactured during a specified period, 50% are manufactured on A, 30% on B and20% on C.2% of the items produced on A and 2% of items produced on B are defective and 3% of these produced on Care defective. All the items are stored at one godown. One item is drawn at random and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured on machine A? INGERT Exemplar] 19 A doctoris visit to a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he wall come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport, are respectively 31 1 snd? The probabilities that he will be sos late are +, 4 and +, ithe comes by train, bus rar and scooter respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When he arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he comes by train? ([NCERT] 20 An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probabilities of an accident for them are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15, respectively. One of the insured person meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver or a car driver? [Foreign 2014] 21 Suppose a girl throws a die. Ifshe gets a5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and notes the ‘number of heads. If she gets 1,2, 3 0r 4,she tosses a coin once and notes whether 2 head or tail is obtained. If she obtained exactly one head, then what is the probability that she threw 1,2, 30% 4 with the die? INCERT] 22. Abag contains $red and 7 black balls. Wo balls are selected at random one-by-one without replacement. Ifthe second selected ball happens tobe red, then what isthe probability that he fiystselectedballis also red? [Delh12014C]23 eee Acard from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn and are found to be diamonds. Find the probability of the lost card being a diamond. INERT) Anum contains 4 balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the urn (without replacement) and are found to be white, What isthe probability that alltheballs in the urn are white? [All India 2014C] | HINTS & SOLUTIONS (@) Hint By definition of partition ofa sample space. (O)Hint By the statement of thearem of total probability (a) Hint By the statement of Bayes theorem Let Ey be the event that selected person is men and E, be the event that selected person is women, and Ey are ‘mutually exclusive and exhaustive event” moreover NedenE) = Late ee NEI selected person is good orator tana me = ot 00” 20 yoo “10 “The probability of choosing a good orator, PEE) = P(E,) x PEE LE,) + E,) x PLE VE.) iar 3 Let A be the event that the picked up bulb is defective Let A,,Az and A, be the events that the bulb produce by amachines ,,E, and E,, respectively Given, PLA, 2 By using total probability theorem, P (geting a detective bulb) 4 A A =a) (4) P14) of }eriaye® maya A} ery a(S) eran 4} ebxtet ded Pei So nL. se443 17 Hence, the peababiity that the picked up bub is tke saz, 0125 Let F be the event thatthe gal gets Tor 2 Bz be the event thatthe girl gets 3. 4.5 0r6 and Abe the event thatthe gel gets exact “tail 1 Then, PED) EL) = (geting exactly one tall when a coin is toseed three times) (geting exactly a tal when a coin is tossed once) Let EE and A denote the following events £, = first bag is chosen, £, = second bag is chosen and. A= wo balls drawn at random are red. Since, one of the bag is chosen at random. AE) = KE.) I has already occurred, i. frst bag is chosen. Therefore, the probability of drawing two sed balls in (3) MEY) (A) ey (A) Ey 3 B, Fe} 2362" mon Solve as Example 3. (Ans. 2/3}10. Let the events he Ey = Choosing frst coin, E, = Choosing second coin, £5 and A= Getting head PE)= PE, Choosing third eoin PUE,)PLATE,) TE )RATE,)= RE, MALE.) REALE) Let ue define the following events 1 Bag Xi eclocted Ey : Bag is selected and E: Getting one white and one black ballin a draw ‘of to balls Here, PUE,)= MEE) =+ 2 [:-probabiltyof selecting cach bag.is equal] Now 1f B potityofiavig on white and 1 ‘one black ball from bag X toxic, 4x2 16 8 cc, ORS ex 15 bea Probability of drawing one white and one black ball from bag Y axa tc, BESS 2x ‘Probability thatthe one white and one black balls are drawn from bag, 2) meg teh Ene 33 i. Ta = 2 Ey sn Wst2"s ets as Gs et 5, = Red balls transferred rom bag bg.T and E,~ Blac bls transfered from bg to bag IL So, and Fare muvalyensarive and exhaustive crn AE, Let E be the event thatthe ball drawn is red, tne, fE)o PO Ey wae? and £)-_4_.-14.2 a) Ten 73 *, Required probability, a8 16 2. Student knows the answer ‘Student guesses the answer Student answered correctly 3 i Sand AE, jam PED Now, 44): » (euudent answered correctly, when te gress) (he answersconecly given hat he knew the answer) - - eguied probaly xe) 4) [neva mene {using Baye’s theorem] aa as Hence, the probability thatthe student knows the 2 8 newer, given that he answered it correctly,BB. Wehave, Ay :AyiAy =424:2 4 4 2 PAD =F Plda)= 5 and A= where 4,, A, and A, denote the event of choosing lower sceds A, z and A,, respectively. Let be the event that a seed germinates and F be the event that a eed doce not germinate, -\ As)” 100 mbes o GED SHES (© Probability that a randomly chosen seed to germinate, nena, erees = Jef S| | wo pled = 1000 = stares = Za, Wo, TO” 510” 5p OTS OS 1000 * i000 * Y000 i000 14, Let Ebe the event that the man reports thet 1 oceurs in| throwing ofa die, E, be the event that 1 oceurs and E, be the event that 1 does not occur. ‘Then, PUE,) = Probability that 1 occurs (E,) = Probability hat # doe ot osu =2 é 42] = P (mon sports that occurs, wen 1 has E sctually occured om the die) ‘= P (an speaks the truth) = 5 42 = P (ran report that 1 occurs, when Ua not A ‘occured on the die) = P(man does not speak the truth) 3 Probability that the report of the man that 1 has ‘occurred i actualy 1, ie given by [by Baye’s theorem] 3 x Ze 8 3030 once, the probability that tis acualy 1s: ‘vent thatthe person has disease vent thatthe person i healthy. ‘Then, Ey and E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive ed rn1-u ese iE wpe 2 1) pee eonsren teen . ‘has disease) s {Epo renii sine tpn : very 25-6005 00 Probability that a person has disease given that test result e positive, i given by a), __rerdi] (2) ney £) nen Z) [by Raye’s theorem] 0.001% 099, ‘oar x 0.99 40.999 0008 0.00099 Toone» + 0.008095 0.005985 5985 665 153 2 Hence, the required probability is =, ited probability is = Let £, be the event that person is suffering from TB and 2, be the event that person is not suffering from TB. Let Ee the event that the doctor diagnoses thal person has 1B.7. 9. (TR is detected when a person is actually Suffering) ont o( Ere nde wen person is not : . actually suffering) =0001= wm Anke penal ny : oe nene(e) o(B ele) (he (2a) Cs) Hence the probability that a selected person hoe actually rai 22 mal Hint £, and £, be the events of first group and second troup wins and £ be the new product is introduced, Then 1E,)=06 FE) sat {E)-09 F Dewey win ne tewen Am 2] Hint P(A)= Sox, P(B)=30%, P(C) = 20% o(B)=2n.r(2)=2n o(2)=o= a 5 c Required probability. (4) Son x20 [as 5] D) Sonn Dee wE xen ORK LT iB, = Doctor will ome by train Doctor will come by bus, E, =Doctor will come by scooter £2, =Doctor will come by other transport. rao] (home Required probability, af (Am. a8 12, beat at ers shorn onde aE, = Event tat 2, 14s shown odie tan) 2andtey xoor+} xaos Je 0(&) eee a 2 xaoi+ 2 xo03 + + x 1s é 3 2 (exactly one head show up when coin is tossed thrice) = Pun. Der, TrH}= 8 [total number of outcome : 1[E)- romana ‘The probability that the gil threw 1, 2,3 ar 4 with the dic if she obtained exactly one head, is given by ic22. Hint £, =First balls red E, = First balls black and A =Second balls red re)=2r . rem(2) Gs) mapa Jorceycate) Om ‘= Missing card is diamond Ey = Missing card isnot diamond and A =Drawing two diamond cards from the remaining carde TOPIC 4| 4 neere() Tones mma rere (3) 24. Hint E, = There are two white and two other colour balls inthe bag There are three white and one other colour balls in the bag ££, = There are all white balls in the bag and A = Drawing two white blle from the bag PU) = PE) = PE Random Variable and Its Probability Distribution RANDOM VARIABLE AA random variable isa real valued function, whose domain is the sample space ofa random experiment. Generally. ie denoted by capital leter X. Also, more than one random variables can be defined on the same sample space eg. Leta coin be tossed twice. ‘Then, sample space, § ={HTTH,HH,IT} TEX denotes the number of heads in ewo tosses, then X isa random variable and for each outcome. its value is X(T) =0, X(HT) = 1, X(TH)= Vand X(HH) Cleat, valucs of X ate 0, land 2 Let ¥ denotes the number of heads minus the number of tails for each outcome of the above sample space $ and for each outcome, its value is Y(HH)=2-0=2, and Thus, X and ¥ are wo different random variables defined ‘on the same sample space S. EXAMPLE |1| A bag eontains 2 black and 1 green balls. One ball is drawn at random and then put back in the box after noting its colour. The process repeated again. Let X denotes the number of green balls recorded in the two draws, deseribe X. Sol. Given a bag contains 2 black and 1 green balls. Black tulls are denoted by 2, b, anu green balls denoted by an-then the sample space for tro draws is S= fb yb Dabs Pub, Pu, Pas iP abe asd Now, X denotes the number of green balls Then, X(GhI= XGBI= X(BAHI= Xb) =O, % (ag) = ¥ (bags) = X (gih)= X ails) 1 and X (64) =2 Hence, X 6a random variable whose range (0 1,2) Probability Distribution of a Random Variable ‘The system in which the values of a random variable are given along with their corresponding probability is called probability distributionIf X is a random variable and takes the values of po ¥qeXyso00%y With respective probabilities Poe Pae Paves Bae Then, the probability distribution of X is represented by xl le [as he PO mo | mm bs 12,3, whew p,>0and Sp Noe I sone ofthe possible waives of rancor viable X, then Slalement X= 3, ve only at some points) offre Ssnple space Hence, the probaly that X takes val i alas nomzei, be Axa a)70 EXAMPLE |2| Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a welleshuffled deck of 52 cards. Find ‘the probability distribution of the number of aces. INCERT] Sol. Let the number of aces isa random variable denoted by X. Here, two cards are drawn. Let A denotes an ace card and B denotes a non-ace card, then sample space for two card is = [AB BA, AA 88} ‘Then, X (AB) =1. X (BA)=1. X(AA) = and X (BB) =0. So, X takes the values 0,1 0F2-Since, the draws are done with replacement, wo draws form independent experiments 2 PUX=O)= P(BB)= AUS) x PB) = 4548 ua RR 18 [ein 52 cards, 4 aces and remaining 48 fare non-ace cards] BUX =1)= PLABor BA)= AB) + LBA) AY FOB) + B)-MA) 52°82 ies" 169 io and P(X =2) = M(AA)= P(A)-P(A) Hence, the required probability distribution is xleolt|e2 pom | me) | 4 ve | ts | io Verification Sum of probabilities, Pp o Tg 169 EXAMPLE [3] From a lot of 15 bulbs which include 5 defectives, a sample of 2 bulbs is drawn at random (without replacement). Find the probability distribution of the number of defective bulbs. [Dethi2015¢1 Sol. Total number of bulbs = Number of defective bulbs =5 Mean of a Random Variable Lee X be a random variable taking values with probabilities p,, ps, Pyr--Pa» tespectively Then, mean of X denoted by Ut is the number x; pj. ie. the mean of X's the weighted average ofthe possible values of X,cach value being weighted by its probability with which it accurs. Iris also called the expectation of X, denoted by FOO). Then, £(X) Sepennesotornn Thus, in other words we can say that the mean or expectation of a random variable X is the sum of the products of all possible values of X by their respective probabilities. Note () Mezn isa meesure of eation or conta tendeney the sense that it roughly cates a mide or average value of the random vesiabe. (@ Random variates with dierent probabity cstibutons. can have equal means. METHOD OF FINDING MEAN OF A RANDOM VARIABLE Suppose a random experiment is given to us, chen co find mean and variance of a random variable associated with random experiment, we use the following steps 1. First, identify the random variable (say X) associated given random experiment and then find all possible values x,.:¥3.33...« which X can take, Il, For cach value of X obtained in step 1, find the probability. IIL. Wite the probability distribution table for random variable X.IV. Caleabte men by using the formula, mean Fe Se, play) ie uliply ech value of , by the corresponding probability and then find the sum to get requited mean, EXAMPLE [4] The random variable X can take only the values 0, 1, 2, 3. Given that P(X =0) = P(X =1)=p and P(X = 2) = P (X =3) such that 3p,xf = 25p,x;, find the value of p. Delhi 2017) Sol. Given, X =0,1,2,3and AX =0)= AX = 1) =p, PX=2)= P(X) such that Sp,x} =23p,x, Now, Spat pot prt pet Ps = ptptsteet Let X= 2)= 1X =3)= x] ine z “The probability distribution of X is given by xox] o | 1 [2 | 3 pe | ep | heed > mer =2 =p Now, Epa? =23pa5, = past pal t pod + toad = AApoxe + Pixs + Pars + pars] 9 pxor pe x(a Bx apne pare > pein apn 2ed-apyxe = p+0-29)+0-29)x2] recip danpea[p stein daa] EXAMPLE |5| Ina game, a man wins ® 5 for getting a number greater than 4 and loses 1 otherwise, when a fair dieis thrown. The man decided to throw a die thrice but to quit as and when he gets a number greater than 4. Find the expected value of the amount he wins/loses. {All tndia 2016) Sol tect X be a random variable that denotes the amount received by the man. Then, X can take values 5.4.3 and -3. Now. P(X =5)= P (getting a number greater than #in the first throw) a2el 63 (gctting a number less than or equal to 4 in the firet throw and getting a number greater than 4 in the second throw) (getting 2 number less than or equal to 4 in first tivo throws and getting a number greater than 4in ‘the third throw) to 4 mall three throws) im of Xs a] 3 4/8 FaneZ "Now, expected value ofthe amount Degg 4g A FO) = Bap, ast ee See kag k ‘ Pe sstenen—a4 579 ue EXAMPLE |6| Two cards are drawn simultaneously (without replacement) from a welleshuffled deck of 52 ‘ards. Find the mean of number of red cards. Sol. Here, we have to dravya two cards simultaneously from 2 deck. Let X denotes the number of red cards (since mean and variance of red card tobe calculated here), then X can take values 0 (no red card} 1 (one red card) and 2 (both red cards) For X =, A(X =0) = P(getting no red card) = =°2 a [ thore are 26 red and 2s black cards in a deck] 225 2ei 125 25 Be nim 2x1ForX=1, XX =1) ‘P(getting one red and other black eard) AMC, | 26% 2602 _ 26 Yo, sexs st 26x25 "caer _ 3s ForX=2, X= 2)= a Fo,” xs ime PK) We know that mean, X= $x, plx,) R= (<3) «(vx 4) (ox 3) ina) OS) "Pte 28, 26, 25D i231 sts Hence, mean =1 EXAMPLE |7| Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from positive integers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Let X denotes the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the mean of the probability distribution of X. [Foreign 2015}, Sol. The total numberof pairs will be formed by taking two numbers at atime ="C, x °C, =80 Let X denotes larger ofthe two numbere be obtained. Obviously may have values 3,4, 5,6 and. Now, FX Plgeing (2), 6.2) ow of pare] wo Lxtting (2.4, G9), (42), (43) out of 30 1188), (52), 4.545.) out cof 30 pairs] PX =6) =P [getting (26). (62.86), (69, (66,69) (6.0. 65) out of 3 pairs] a4 6 PX =1)= Pgetting (27), (7.2) (8). 0.9) (47). 04), 05 (52%, 34 (67,028) ou of 3 pais = = ‘Therefore required probability distribution is x [sa fs[s [ela Poo | ins | ans | ans | ans | sis “+ Required mean = =Esp, saxtoaxtasxdeoxterxd aa is 1524 35857 Bis *is is 3 EXAMPLE [8] An um contains 4 white and 3 red balls, Let X be the number of red balls in a random draw of 3 balls. Find the mean of X. Sol. When 3 bas are draven at random, there may be no red ball, 1 rod ball 2 red bolls or 3 red ball. Let X denotes the random variable showing the number of red balls ina draw of 3 balls Then, Kea take the values 01, 20° AX =0)= Petting no red ball) P (getting 3 white balls) AUX =1)= P (getting 1 red and 2 white balls) 20x Ce _ (SxS, S20) 18 "e 2 “7xox3) 35 (getting 2red and 1 white balls) te (Seaen)-2 aad “7xox3) 35 fey _sxaxt_t Ax. P (getting 3 red balls FC, TKexS ‘Thue, the probability distribution of Xi given below x-n| 0) 1 [2] 3 28) 2s a SB Es & Es Mean, w= 2p sox dere aesh= a2 as Bo? TOPIC PRACTICE 4 | OBJECTIVE TYPE QUESTIONS 1 Let X represent the difference between the ‘number of heads and the number of tails ‘obtained when a coin is tossed 6 times. Then, the possible values of X are @onas 0.12.3 our (0.2462 The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is given below x|2][afs«fs s |}? }s}u rm ik x & x ‘The value of kis INCERT Exemplar] @s 16 (ox (as, 3 For the following probability distribution. x] =a | -3 poo] or | 02 | os | o2 F(X) is equal to INCERT Exemplar] @o w- (0-2 @ts 4 ‘The mean of the number obtained on throwing, adic having written Ion three faces, 2.0n two faces and 5 on one face is INcERT} jt 2 @s oy VERY SHORT ANSWER Type Questions 5 Anum contains 6 red and 3 black balls. Two balls are randomly drawn, Let X represents the number of black balls, What are the possible values of X? 6 State whether the following distribution is a probability distribution of a random variable or ot x 2 1 poy | oa | 02 | a4 | 01 | 005 INCERT SHORT ANSWER Type II Questions 7 Find the probability distribution of X, the number of heads in a simultaneous toss of two coins. {alltndia 2019) 8 The random variable has a probability distribution P(X) of the following form, where “Wis some number. Determine the value of ‘k. (Dethi 2019} 10 TT 2 B 14 16 7 18, ‘Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first five positive integers. Let X denotes the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the mean of X. [eBse 2018} Abised ts uch that 7) «hand other scores being equally likely. The die is tossed twice. IFX is the ‘number of four seen’, then find the mean of the random variable X. INCERT Exemplar} 3 defective bulbs are mixed up with 7 good ‘ones. 3 bulbs are drawn at random. Find the probability distribution of defective bulbs. Accoin is biased so that the head is three times as likely to occur as tail. If the coin is tossed twice, find the probability distribution of number of tails. Hence, find the mean of the number of tails, (Delhi 2020) ‘Three cards are drawn at random (without replacement) from a well-shuffled pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability distribution ‘of number of red cards and also find the mean of the distribution. [Foreign 2014] ‘Three cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability distribution of the number of spades. Also, find the mean of the distribution. {AM India 2015) ‘Two cards are drawn simultaneously (or successively without replacement) from a well- shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the mean of the number of kings Delhi 2019} From alot 30 bulbs, which includes 6 defectives, 3 bulbs are drawn one-by-one at random with replacement. Find the probability distribution of number of defective bulbs. Hence, find the mean of the distribution, (allindia 2017¢) Ace likely to occur as tail. Ifthe coin is tossed twice, find the probability distribution of number of tails. Hence, find the mean of the distribution. [Dethi 20166) Ina meeting, 70% of the members favour a certain proposal, 30% being opposite. A member is selected at random and let X he opposed and X =i he is in favour. Find F(X). INERT) is biased so that the head is 2 times as if19. Suppose 10000 tickets are sold in a lottery each for 1. First prize is of ¥ 3000 and the second prize is of @ 2000. There are three third prizes of € 500 each, Ifyou buy one ticket, then what is your expectation? [NCERT Exemplar] 20 There are 4 cards numbered 1, 3,5 and 7, one number on one card, Two cards are drawn at random without replacement. Let X denotes the sum of the numbers on the two drawn cards. Find the mean of X. {All India 2017 LONG ANSWER Type Questions 21 The probability distribution of a random variable X is given as under fix?, 2-12, PKax)= [kr 1-486 Jo, ” otherwise where kis a constant. Caleulate @ FW) ( PX24) 22. Avandom variable X has following probability distribution. INCERT Exemplar) xJoltl2|s|«[sle| 7 Pen] 0 | k 2k] 2k] om | A [ant ra + Find (@k Gi) PX <3) (iii) PER > 6) iv) PO a)afapaca Po loi ws 5 | s/w S44s0si2si4 sate 0 25. mun roe ean srug=t an! x (Number of tails) ‘ 2 a a) eo PO) as| vs | es ee o 8) ws eal 1s Ss 35 8 Mean = Ex0«x) = 7% ) 125,Consider, p = probability of get and q= probability of getting a white ball = Let X denotes the number of red balls in four draws “Then, Xcan take values 0,1. 2,9and 4 Now, ‘P(r rec balls)= P (al black balls) PSs a UX =1) =P (one rod and three blacks balls) won bee AX=3)= P (Uae red and one back ball) 232 a4xt® an 16 16 POC = 4) = Pll red balls) =1x 16 = 16 Ax =4)= 76 Jax a Hence, the probability distribution is shown below xlolil2l[ala4 po 1 8 # 2) we Hoel a el a 39%) wok Soa es ag lO aa aa a lost as 496464] Now, mean of distebution, OX 2168 a8 27. Similar as Example 7 Ans. x[2[ala[sle pt 2/3 4 8 si sls 6 28. Given, X denotes the largest of the three postive integers So, the random variable X may have values 34, 5 0° 6 AUX =3)= Petting Sand two numbers less thon 3) GR *c, )= P (geting 4 and two numbers les than 4) tec, _ 3 8 (geting Sand two numbers less than 5) late, 6 sc, "20 {X= 6)= Petting 6 and two mumbeslss than ) 212g 2 cao bability distsbution is shown blow x [aflals|e rfalel« Peo | me | | | Now, mean of distubution, £(2)= EX-A(X) 0 wsxtsaxSssxbsox 2039 0 3412430460 _ 105 _ 21 0 24SUMMARY + Probability ofan Event rer an elorertary cqualy oly events assocted witha random expetirert and of em are ‘avaabieto an eset A then te probably of happening or ecaurene of ie deroted by {Aan dared ae A) =, + Condtonal Probab it Aand aro wo overs assodatd wi fo saro samp space oa rendom epotnert han codon [probability of the event A gnen that 8 has occured, ie. P (A/E) is given by = 2220 ae P20 = Muitiplication Theorem (0 Lot Aand bo two evonts ascociatod with a random experenant, thon P(A)-PIBIA), where PIA)# 0 P(8)-P(ALB), where PIB) + 0 Hee, ANB denotes the simultaneous occurence ofthe evens Aand 8 (0 LetE, Fand be three events of sample space S. Ten penenayarere(}(=2) ‘= Theorem of Total Probability Let {F, F;,..F,} bea pation of he sample space’ and suppose that each of the events, Es... Ey has non-zero probability of occurence. Let Abe any avent associated withS, ven PA) = PE) PALE) + PIE) PIAIE:) + 4 P(E) PUVE,) = SPE) PIAIE)) = Baye’s Theorem It. E.G» ater non-empty events, which constitute a parton of sample spaces, ie EE, Ey are panwise disbint, E, UE, u...UE, =8 aid PIE) >0.¥/ =12,.... ‘Aso et Abe any event of non-zer0 probabil, then Pana) =| PE (A= PEEP yi nt2:8.0 BP) Pale) Hote, events p....E, are called hypothesis. The prcbabity (Eis called the prior probably of tie hypothesis £, and the conditional probabity P(E A)s called a posterior probability othe hypothes's F; ‘= Random Variable A random vatable is areal valved function, whose domain isthe sample space of arancom experiment Generally, itis denoted by capa letter X * Probability Distibution of a Random Variable I is a rendom variable and ies the Values Maung WA FeSpeCtne probabilties p, pa, Py.Py- Then, the probably distribution of Kis represented by ow [ee me Po | | B where, A> Oand 3p) = 1-12.80 + Mean denote number 34 ts abo cle tne oxpectaton of cect EOCHAPTER PRACTICE OBJECTIVE TYPE QUESTIONS A)_,{B 1 iAane aceasta r()=7{ 2) then (yacRmut sek dae anes (@)14)~ P18) 2 tfAand Baretwo events such that P(2) = 5, (ara) =Land PUA B) = then PA eas to INCERT Rxemplar] 3 1 1 3 io oF > @: Ss 3 IfAand B are two events such that Ac B and. PB) #0, then which ofthe followings correct? " owns 2) 7 8-22 afd}eren © P(e) PUA) (a) None of these 4 Aflashlight has 8 batteries out of which 3 are ead. If two batteries are selected without replacement and tested, then probability that both are dead is INCERT Exemplar] 33 2 - Or we 1 3 @t @s OF as 5 The probability of obtaining an even prime number on each die when a pair of dice is rolled is : (NCERT] ® ws m3 Os O35 6 Afewo events are independent, then INCERT Exemplar] (a) they must be mutually exclusive (0) the sum oftheir probabilities must be equal to {) Both (a) and (b) are correct (@) None of the above is correct 7 Ifa dicis thrown anda card is selected at random from a deck of 52 playing cards, then the probability of getting an even number on the die anda spade card is [NCERT Exemplar] 1 1 1 2 @t mt of VERY SHORT ANSWER ‘Type Questions 8 Acard is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting an ace card. 9 Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting a doublet. 10 Let £ and F be the events with P(E) -3 a 1 PUP) = Gand P(E 0 F) == Find whether the events are independent or not. I Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards one-by-one without replacement. What is the probability of getting first card red and second eard jack? [CBSE Sample Paper 2021 (Term 1D} SHORT ANSWER Type I Questions 12. Inclass X11 of a school, 40% of students study Mathematics, 30% of students study Biology and 10% of class study both Mathematics and Biology. Ifa student is sclected at random from the class, then find the probability that he will studying Mathematics or Biology. 13. Adie has two faces each with number I, three faces each with number? and one face with number 3.If die is rolled once, then determine probability of not getting 3. P= 2.) = Zand AnD) eae 4 Sithen INCERT Exemplar]15 16 P(4)=04,7(8)=0.8and F{ 2)=05 then sind PAU). INCERT Exemplar] 16 Acoinis tossed 4 times. Find the mean of the probability distribution of the number of tails. 17 Abag contains 1 red and 3 white balls. Find the probability dist balls, if2 balls are drawn at random from the bag one-by-one without replacement. [CBSE Sample Paper 2021 (Term 1D) ution of the number of red SHORT ANSWER Type II Questions 18 1A and B are two events such that P(4) 2 Pe) = Land (2) ~ J then find Pa’ 9B). INCERT Exemplar) 19 If Aand Bare two events such that P(A) = 3 = Band P48) =5 then find aha} Ble INCERT Exemplar] 20 Ifamother, father and son line up at random for a family picture as E (son on one end) and F (Gather is on middle), then find P (E/#). poem) 21 12 cards, numbered | to 12 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly and then a eard is drawn, at random from the box. If itis known that the ‘number on the drawn card is more than 3, then find the probability that it is an even number. 22 ima college, 30% students fal in Physics, 25% fain Mathematics and 10% fail in both. One student is chosen at random. Find the probability that she fails in Physics, if she failed in Mathematics. INERT Exemplar} 23 Abag contains 5 red, 7 green and 4 white balls. Sballs are drawn one after another without replacement. Find the probability that (©) the bas are white, green and green, respectively. (4) out of 3 balls, one is white and 2s green. 24. Abag contains 4 red and5 black balls. Another bag contains 3 red and black balls. One ball is drawn from bag | and two balls are drawn from bag I Find the probability that out of three, two are black and one is red. 26 oy 28 29 30 3 32, A box contains 3 orange balls, 3 green balls and ‘2 blue balls. Three balls are drawn at random from the box without replacement, Find the probability of drawing 2 green balls and one biue ball INCERT Exempl ‘Two events £ and F are independent. If P(E) =0.3 and P(EWF) =05, then find Ape) HAE P(A)=3, PAU B) = Sand PB) =p Find p, if INCERT Exemplar] mneyate say xe (9 ndeensot In aon of stderr ys aed dist adentsae ote sclsed st ondom tine gronp Find the roby tat her Stuy ane gor ghisandlooy oe ed Ana appertor annem for posts Ime roby ofA selec and ht of slime Find the roby tht ‘only one of them is selected. (i) none is selected. ‘Three persons 4, B and C fire at a target in turn, starting with A. Their probability of hitting the target are 0.4, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. Find the probability that exactly two of them hit the target [NCERT Exemplar] ‘Three bags contains a number of red and white balls as follows, Bag 1:3 red balls, Bag Il:2red balls and I white ball and Bag II13 white balls. ‘The probability that bag iwill be chosen and a ball is selected from itis 1.2, 3 What. where isthe probability that ( ared ball will be selected? ‘a white ball will be selected? [NCERT Exemplar] Abox contains 2 gold and 3 silver coins. Another box contains 8 gold and silver coins box is chosen at random and coin is drawn from it. Ifthe selected coin is a gold coin, then find the probability that it was drawn from second box33. There are two bags, bag I and bag Il Bag 1 contains 2 white and 4 red balls and bag It contains 5 white and 3 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag IL {All India 2010) 34. Find the probability distribution of number of doublets in three tosses of a pair of dice. [all India 2011€; Deths 2010¢] 35. Two cards are dravm simultaneously (vithout replacement) from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the mean of number of red cards. {hit 3012 36 Ina die game, a player pays a stake of I for each throw of adie. She receives €5,i'the die shows :£2, ifthe die shows al or 6 and nothing otherwise. What isthe player’ expected profit per throw over along series of throws? INCERT Exemplarl LONG ANSWER Type Questions 37. Bag I contains 3red and 4 black balls and bag I contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red Find the probability that it was drawn from bag I {Dethi 2013, 2010) 38. Amanis known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that itis a six. Find the probability that itis actually a six. etm 20101 39 Afactory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of items of output and machine B produced 40% of items. Further, 2% oF items, produced by machine Aand 1% produced by machine B were defective. All the items are put into a stockpile and then one item is chosen at random from this and this is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by machine Be (Foreign 20111 40. na bulb factory, machines A, B and manufacture 60%, 30% and 10% bulbs, respectively. 1%, 2% and 3% of the bulbs produced, respectively by A, Band are found to be defective. A bulb is picked up at random from the total production and found to be defective. Find the probability that this bulb was produced by machine A. AL Ifa machine is correctly setup, it produces 90% acceptable items. Ifit Is incorrectly setup, it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that 80% of the setups are correctly done. If after a certain setup, the ‘machine produces 2 aeceptable items, then find the probability that machine is correctly setup. (NCERT} 42. There are three coins. One is atwo tailed coin (having tail on both faces) another isa biased coin that comes up heads 60% ofthe times and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three ‘coins is chosen at random and tossed and it shows tail. What is the probability that itis a two tailed coin? {All India 2011C) 43. suppose 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. Agrey haired person is selected at random. What is the probability of this person being male? (assume that these are equal number of males and females) INCERT, Delhi 2011) 44 Acrime is committed by one of two suspects A and B initially, there is equal evidence against both of them. In further investigation at the ccrime scene. [tis found that the guilty party had ‘a blood type found is 20% of the population. If the suspect A does match this blood type, ‘whereas the blood type of suspect Bis unknown, then find the probability that Ais the guilty party. 45. Aletter is known to have come either from LONDON or CLIFTON. On the envelope just ‘two consecutive letters ON are visible. What is the probability that the letter has come from (i) LONDON (ii) CLIFTON? 46 Suppose we have four boxes 4, B, C,D containing coloured marbles as given below: Boxes Red Black a 1 6 3 8 6 2 2 © a 1 1 o ° 6 4 One ofthe boxes has been selected at random and a single marble drawn from it. Ifthe marble is red, then what is the probability that it was drawn from (box 4? (i) box ©? (i) box B? (Ncerr}