sustainability

Article
Prediction of Transport Performance Development Due to the
Impact of COVID-19 Measures in the Context of Sustainable
Mobility in Railway Passenger Transport in the Slovak Republic
Jozef Gašparík , Zdenka Bulková * and Milan Dedík

Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Žilina,

010 26 Žilina, Slovakia; [email protected] (J.G.); [email protected] (M.D.)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +421-917088473

Abstract: The disease COVID-19 negatively affected sustainable mobility, including public passenger
transport, as it was necessary to take several measures to reduce the population’s mobility. It also
limited rail passenger transport. Railway operators suffered from a significantly reduced number of
passengers. An analysis of the transport performance of railway passenger transport is conducted in a
case study in Slovakia. Based on the decline in transport performance in railway passenger transport
and the degree of measures introduced, a new methodology and procedure for introducing pandemic
measures are proposed in the context of reducing the scope of rail passenger transport. The measures
are proposed under the condition that it is necessary to monitor the roles and responsibilities of
railway infrastructure managers and rail passenger operators. The proposed methodology includes
a transport performance forecast according to the defined transport reduction measure level and
the train traffic diagram variants on the model railway line in the case of levels of the implemented
measures. These proposals will contribute to higher quality and more efficient railway transportation,
including optimal use of railway infrastructure capacity during emergency situations. The novelty of
the research lies in the new methodological procedure and its practical application.

Keywords: mobility; sustainability; COVID-19 measures; railway passenger transport

Citation: Gašparík, J.; Bulková, Z.;
Dedík, M. Prediction of Transport
Performance Development Due to the
Impact of COVID-19 Measures in the
Context of Sustainable Mobility in
1. Introduction
Railway Passenger Transport in the High-quality railway infrastructure is necessary for efficient railway operation and
Slovak Republic. Sustainability 2024, transportation. Only in such circumstances can railway passenger transport guarantee peo-
16, 5283. https://doi.org/10.3390/ ple’s sustained mobility as the public passenger transport system’s supporting mechanism.
su16135283 Public mass transit systems, however, are subject to a variety of outside influences that
Academic Editor: Antonio Comi affect how well they function. An epidemiological danger may be posed as one of them.
The global COVID-19 epidemic of 2020 had a major effect on both passenger travel and the
Received: 29 April 2024 global economy [1,2]. The transportation market’s supply (the number of connections) and
Revised: 26 May 2024 demand (the number of passengers) were impacted by numerous imposed regulations [3].
Accepted: 19 June 2024
The most common limitations included limiting the number of connections, lowering the
Published: 21 June 2024
maximum number of passengers in a car, limiting the network of transportation connec-
tions, and similar measures [4]. Ensuring a suitable degree of safety during an epidemic
poses a significant challenge because of the subjectivism of social members, their varied
Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.
perspectives, and their life histories. In response, authorities everywhere released the requi-
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. site guidelines and legislation. Mobility styles were immediately and severely impacted
This article is an open access article by this. The economic and social effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on public transport
distributed under the terms and go beyond service performance and health risks to financial viability, social equity, and
conditions of the Creative Commons sustainable mobility [5].
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// Circumstances related to the outbreak of the disease COVID-19 are beyond the control
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ of railway undertakings, which face significant liquidity problems, large losses, and, in
4.0/). some cases, the risk of insolvency. To avoid the negative economic effects of the outbreak

Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16135283 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 2 of 22

of the disease COVID-19, railway companies may need financial support with the fees for
access to the railway infrastructure. This option should be granted for the period during
which the effects of the outbreak of the COVID-19 disease on the railway market have
already been felt and during which they are expected to be felt. That is why the European
Union decided to accept Regulation (EU) 2020/1429 of the European Parliament and the
Council of establishing measures for sustainable rail markets in view of the COVID-19
outbreak [6].
Numerous nations have implemented diverse strategies to halt the transmission of
COVID-19. Using social distancing to avoid touch is one of the most crucial of these
strategies. Travel demand and activity participation are significantly impacted by a lack of
social contacts [7]. Many nations quickly responded with effective accessibility limitations
to stop the virus’s spread and assure passengers that they were safe while traveling by
train. Pandemic interventions mostly took the form of altered long-distance and regional
transportation patterns, as well as a decrease in population mobility in public passenger
transit [8]. The most common measure introduced by almost all EU countries was the
introduction of an emergency [9]. Demand for travel saw an unprecedented overall decline,
falling dramatically with peaks of 90–95% of public transport passengers. During the
reopening phase, demand has gradually returned to pre-crisis levels, although some
structural changes in travel behavior have been observed, and some restrictive measures
are still in place to reduce the risk of contagion.
The basic background of the mentioned contribution and the established research is
to contribute to a complex solution to the problem of public passenger transport during
a pandemic. It will have a fundamental practical benefit for society, which will consist
of increasing the quality and efficiency of rail passenger transport and providing safer
conditions for passengers. There will also be a significant theoretical–scientific contribution,
which will consist of enriching the science of transport processes with new progressive
outputs. This paper analyzes the impact of the introduced pandemic measures on transport
performance in railway passenger transport in the Slovak Republic and other EU countries.
Based on a precise professional analysis of the current situation and problems, a methodical
procedure is developed in which several scientific methods are used. The basic aim of the
research is to propose a new system of pandemic measures that will be effectively applied
in the railway system to increase the safety of passengers and maintain attractive railway
passenger transport. Based on them, the dependence between the degree of measures and
the expected development of transport performance is broken.
The proposed conceptual system of measures, including the established methodology
in the context of the prediction of transport performance, will significantly contribute to
sustainable mobility and sustainable development. It is very important to realize that
sustainability is a social goal for people to co-exist on Earth for a long time. Therefore,
society must be prepared to handle various threats and crises, and it is necessary to have a
plan for solving such crisis situations. Therefore, the current research on the mentioned
issue will partly contribute to the fulfillment of this common vision, specifically in railway
passenger transport.
More specifically, this paper aims to (1) provide a structure for COVID-19 common
policy measures and their impact on transport goals, (2) give an overview of findings in this
area, and (3) synthesize the literature, discuss its policy relevance, and suggest avenues for
future research. We review measures and their direct impacts (on mobility and activities)
and indirect impacts on the economics of the transport system. We limit ourselves to
passenger mobility and focus on the railway transport mode. The literature review in
Section 2 focuses on the research outputs in the field of railway transport during pandemic
measures. From a scientific point of view, we examined the procedures of the government,
the dependence between the degree of the declared measure and the degree of reduction
in transport performance in rail transport, and, subsequently, transport performance in
the number of passengers. Section 3 first describes the methodology; Section 4 presents
the results. Section 5 discusses the findings, and finally, Section 6 summarizes the main
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 3 of 22

conclusions and provides reflections on the transport policy implications and suggestions
for future research.

2. Literature Overview
Public transport services, which are a vital link for many working people, were
severely disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. As institutions gradually return to
normal operations, it is important to understand and examine how the pandemic affected
people’s basic commute to work and what will be needed to ensure the effective recovery
of transit traffic and increase the long-term resilience and equity of public transportation
systems. A study [10] used focus group discussions with grassroots workers who were
pre-pandemic commuters to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their per-
ceptions, experiences, motivations, and challenges of commuting and explore potential
changes in their post-pandemic travel behavior. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a
significant change in urban mobility habits, leading to a significant decline in the use of
public urban transport in many countries. This was only partially and unevenly reversed.
In this context, many cities are still analyzing what factors hinder this recovery process.
The intention is to propose measures to support sustainable mobility. The authors of [11]
conducted research in the city of Almeria (Spain) and tried to analyze whether the main
operational variables of the city bus network have an impact on the annual number of
renewed users in 2022 compared to 2019. In [12], the authors analyzed the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic on mobility behavior and public transport strategy formulation after
COVID-19.
Traveling by train during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic and the perception
of safety with the support of political measures were addressed in the research [13]. To
minimize the risk of contracting the coronavirus while traveling by train, the national
government and the Dutch railway operator in The Netherlands adopted several policy
measures. These included passengers being required to wear masks and instructions being
issued for working from home and teaching online. In addition, other policy measures
were considered, such as the introduction of a reservation system. The authors of [14]
synthesized the latest status up to early June 2020 on key developments regarding public
transport and the COVID-19 pandemic, including the various responses adopted by gov-
ernments and public transport agencies around the world, and research on critical issues
that minimize the risk of contagion in public transport in the so-called post-blocking phase.
The range of less researched factors, such as attitudes and beliefs about train use, were
examined [15], including the perceived risk of influenza-type infection, alongside more
traditional factors that together influence decisions about whether to continue using the
train. In [16], the authors focused on supporting policies and decision-makers in defining
the most appropriate strategies to manage the COVID-19 crisis.
World governments have enacted and continue to enact many regulations and rules
to minimize the level of risk to which the population is exposed. Most of them focus on
ensuring social distancing of people, and in this context, the public transport sector plays
a key role [17]. A study by [18] provides scientific evidence for designing more effective
COVID-19 policies in the transport and public health sectors. The effectiveness of each
policy is measured using nine indicators of infection and mobility corresponding to the
three periods before and after the policy implementation. The purpose of the research
in [19] was to examine the impact of COVID-19 on movement behavior with reference
to public transport users in terms of their willingness to travel and their perception of
safety criteria.
The pandemic measures were mainly manifested in the reduction in population mo-
bility in public passenger transport [20,21] and in changes in mobility at the regional level.
In the Slovak Republic, this change manifested itself to varying degrees. The research
teams of the University of Zilina published partial results of intensive research during the
years 2020–2023 within the framework of the project “Identification and possibilities of
implementation of new technological measures in transport to achieve safe mobility during
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 4 of 22

a pandemic caused by COVID-19”, co-financed by the European Regional Development

Fund. Transport-oriented researchers created a comprehensive study focusing on measures
during the pandemic in all modes of transport. The changes in mobility at the regional
level were assessed in research by [22]. The paper [23] deals with the impact of measures
introduced in the first half of 2020 on railway passenger transport in the Slovak Republic to
slow down the spread of the virus during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In
other research [24], authors optimized timetables on the Bratislava–Zilina–Kosice route in
the period after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the paper [25], the authors focused
their research on the analysis of the impact of the pandemic and implemented measures
on the passenger rail transport sector in the Slovak Republic and on the development
of rail passenger and freight transport during the pandemic. Their research defines the
proposed measures against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in rail transport in
Slovakia during the ongoing pandemic. The impact of the pandemic and the measures
taken on the development of transport performance in rail passenger transport in Slovakia
during the COVID-19 pandemic were examined in [26]. The authors propose operational
and organizational measures against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in railway
passenger transport in the Slovak Republic. However, the risk of transmission of the
coronavirus disease (COVID-19) between individual train passengers remains unclear. The
authors of the paper [27] quantified the risk of transmission of COVID-19 to passengers on
high-speed trains. The authors analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of COVID-19
transmission among train passengers to elucidate the associations between infection, spatial
distance, and time spent traveling together. The authors of the paper [28] addressed the
draft scope of public rail passenger transport during the COVID-19 pandemic. Paper [29]
investigated the impact of pandemic measures on the scale of passenger rail transport with
very partial results.
The research in [30] assessed the extent to which maintaining a one-meter distance
between people in trains is sustainable for public transport companies. An optimization
model for assigning seats in long-distance trains to ensure the spread of the SARS-CoV-2
disease was solved in their research [31]. The authors proposed a new seat assignment
policy that aims to mitigate the risk of the virus spreading among passengers by reducing
interaction between them.
Public transport, especially rail passenger transport over long distances and large
areas, is the most potential risk source of a pandemic. This is also evidenced by the research
of [32], who analyzed the relationship between the probability of contracting COVID-19
and the use of public transport through an analysis of survey data, taking Madrid (Spain)
as a case study. This research uses a survey campaign with more than 15,000 responses
that captures sociodemographic aspects, COVID-19 infections, daily habits, and mobility
patterns at high risk of COVID-19 infection. Through a multilevel probit model, this
paper examines the extent to which higher public transport use is associated with a higher
probability of infection with COVID-19. The results suggest a relationship, although not
very strong, between the probability of infection and the association between a higher
frequency of use of metro services and the degree of overcrowding during the trip, while
the use of bus services and travel time in the vehicle do not seem to be affected. Similar
research was conducted by [33], who discussed that the resumption of public passenger
transport operations during the pandemic was questioned due to the high risk of the
spread of the COVID-19 disease in public transport vehicles and mass cases of this infection.
The results of this study showed that there has been a significant decrease in the use of
public transport modes, a trend that is likely to continue, given the preferences of the
participants. While previous health crises such as SARS have affected the transport sector,
the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented, resulting in exceptional impacts on the sector.
Paper [34] analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the transport sector and the subsequent
consequences in selected cities around the world. The authors focused their research on
public air transport, where traffic performance decreased by more than 71% during the
pandemic. Authors of the paper [35] presented evidence in their research that the risk of
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 5 of 22

infection in humans can be extremely high due to the length of the exposure time window,
transmission routes, and structural characteristics during travel or work. This can result
in rapid spread of infection. Based on the characteristics of the transmission of severe
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the nature of public transport
locations, we have identified comprehensive countermeasures for the prevention and
control of COVID-19, including strengthening personnel management, personal protection,
cleaning, and disinfection of the environment. Another proof is the increased risk of
possible infection, and this problem was solved in [36]. Using focus groups and data
collected through telephone interviews during the different phases of the pandemic, the
authors investigated the current concerns of passengers regarding public transport and
what measures would help alleviate their fear of using it again. The findings show that
the pandemic has increased passengers’ sensitivity to phenomena that they perceived
negatively even before the pandemic, such as overcrowded vehicles, odors, or insufficient
cleaning of vehicles. There are many other studies that dealt with the impact of COVID-
19 on the mobility of the population in public passenger transport, for example, [37–43].
All the research cited indicates or seeks evidence that public passenger transportation
(especially those with high occupancy rates) is a major source of contagion.
In rail passenger transport, real-name ticket checking can effectively track the path [44]
and the spread of the pandemic, which is most important for the prevention of the spread
of COVID-19. In [45], the authors first established an evaluation index system for checking
the real name of a train ticket. The authors proposed a comprehensive evaluation model of
the control of the real system, in which the normalized work of various indexes was carried
out, and the key factors affecting the evaluation were determined.
To understand whether passengers will use rail transport during the COVID-19 pan-
demic, a logistic regression model was created based on 559 valid questionnaires from
the three aspects of personal attributes, travel attributes, and perception of COVID-19.
Authors of the paper [46] found that employment, commuting tools before the COVID-19
pandemic, walking time from residence to the nearest subway station, the possibility of
getting infected in a private car, and the possibility of getting infected on public transport
have a significant effect on travel for work by rail transport.
In [47], researchers addressed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the operation
of regional rail transport in the border areas of the Lower Silesian Voivodeship and the
Liberec Region in the context of changes in the functioning of regional rail transport. The
return to the level before the transport restrictions should be associated with encouraging
passengers to use rail transport again. The assessment of rail transport capacity according
to current regulations aimed at ensuring social distancing conditions against the COVID-19
pandemic was addressed in [48]. The authors proposed a methodology to optimize the
operation of railway transport, thus satisfying the demand for mobility.
Overall, however, relatively few scientific articles covering the issue of COVID-19 and
rail transport have been published in the world. Most were published between 2020 and
2022. The research [49] focused on modeling the variability of transport capacity during
pandemic restrictions. The authors of the paper [50] evaluate the development of transport
demand in Poland and other countries in the context of the end of pandemic measures
and the subsequent increase in fuel prices after the crisis in Ukraine. Authors of the
papers [4,51] proposed a policymaking support approach that is effective in evaluating the
acceptance of anti-pandemic policies from the public’s perspective, assessing the balance
between policies and people’s demands, and conducting the response analysis of a series
of policy adjustments based on people’s feedback. The case study suggests that the Wuhan
COVID-19 transport anti-epidemic policies did not adequately consider the roles and
interests of various segments of the public before the effective vaccine and medical aid were
distributed. Moreover, public concerns mainly focus on the commuting of anti-epidemic-
related staff, necessary travel for vulnerable groups in the community, information and
communication mechanisms, disinfection of available travel tools, logistics and courier
services, the safety of resuming production, and unstable policy decisions. This study also
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 6 of 22

used social media-based analytical methodology for the monitoring phase of policymaking.
Within the mentioned and other current publications, there are many papers, scientific
outputs, and studies where the issue of the COVID-19 pandemic is addressed in the
context of the impact on transport, but always only from a certain point of view. In other
contributions, this issue is applied only to selected specific countries, such as France [52],
India [53], Indonesia [54], and Mozambique [55]. The ways in which the pandemic was
solved in these specific countries, which political strategies were implemented, and how
the measures in the field of transport were determined and accepted are described and
analyzed. However, it is necessary to solve the mentioned problem comprehensively
and to offer new challenges and generally applicable solutions throughout the world so
that in the future, our society is better prepared for potential pandemics and can find
a more suitable solution in the field of public passenger transport. This issue is partly
addressed in [56], where certain post-COVID-19 challenges are also mentioned. Therefore,
the research, models, and practical application presented in this research follow up on
current bottlenecks that were not addressed in previous outputs.
From the aspect of research focus, it can also be stated that several scientific studies
were created during the duration of the pandemic or just after its end, but after 2022,
there are not many analyses focused on transport. It is obvious that the issue of the tasks
of public transport using rail transport has not yet been comprehensively covered, and
no recommendations have been established for the scope of transport during pandemic
measures.

3. Materials and Methods

As countries across the world modify their travel in the face of the COVID-19 pan-
demic, the first casualty becomes the public transport sector. Worldwide transportation
authorities have reported a 95% decrease in users at the COVID-19 peak, a fall in fare box
income, and additional expenses for cleaning and putting in place physical distancing
measures [57]. During the initial wave of the pandemic, domestic rail passenger numbers
decreased by up to 90% compared to the prior year. Numerous carriers, particularly the
more recent ones, were forced to cease operations. The second wave of the pandemic,
which began in the fall of 2020, compelled many nations to enact additional restrictive
policies pertaining to population mobility. The outbreak of the third wave of the pandemic
prevented a rapid revival of rail transport, especially passenger rail transport [58].
In train kilometers, passenger transportation fell by 16.9% on average compared to
the same month in 2019. The worst decline in performance happened in April 2020, when
there was a 40.6% drop in passenger transport performance, similar to what happened in
Slovakia. The second quarter of 2020, from April to June, saw the biggest impact. In the
second quarter of 2020, domestic travel fell by 18%, while international travel fell by an
average of 85%. Passenger travel was more severely impacted than freight travel. In the
initial months of the crisis, the public authorities’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic
(passenger mobility restrictions) and the overall impact of the global economic slowdown,
which generally resulted in a decrease in transport demand, directly contributed to the
reduction in rail transport [59].
Between January and September 2021, there were almost the same number of passen-
ger trains on the network as during the same period in 2019, but there were 7.8% fewer
passenger trains in 2020 than in 2019. However, the number of commercial passenger trains
between January and September 2021 was still 21.5% lower than the same period in 2019,
indicating that there has been no recovery compared to the same period in 2020 when it
was 23.3% lower than in 2019. Comparing the first nine months of 2021 with the same
period in 2019, the number of passengers carried by public service trains was 5.2% lower.
In terms of train kilometers, commercial passenger transport in 2021 was 25.6% lower than
in 2019, which is in line with the (low) level already reached in 2020 [60]. Figure 1 shows
the evolution of transport performance from 2019 to 2022.
 when
when itit was
was 23.3%
23.3% lower
lower than
than in in 2019.
2019. Comparing
Comparing the the first
first nine
nine months
months ofof 2021
2021 with
with the
the
same
same period
period in in 2019,
2019, the
the number
number of of passengers
passengers carried
carried byby public
public service
service trains
trains was
was 5.2%
5.2%
lower.
lower. In In terms
terms ofof train
train kilometers,
kilometers, commercial
commercial passenger
passenger transport
transport in
in 2021
2021 was
was 25.6%
25.6%
Sustainability lower
lower
2024, 16,than
5283 in
than in 2019,
2019, which
which isis in
in line
line with
with the
the (low)
(low) level
level already
already reached
reached in
in 2020
2020 [60].
[60]. Figure
Figure 7 of 22
11 shows
shows the the evolution
evolution ofof transport
transport performance
performance from
from 2019
2019 toto 2022.
2022.

3,400,000
3,400,000
3,200,000
3,200,000
kilometres
trainkilometres

3,000,000
3,000,000
2,800,000
2,800,000
Numberofoftrain

2,600,000
2,600,000
2,400,000
Number

2,400,000
2,200,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
2,000,000

Month
Month
Total train kilometres 2019 Total train kilometres 2020
Total train kilometres 2019 Total train kilometres 2020
Total train kilometres 2021 Total train kilometres 2022
Total train kilometres 2021 Total train kilometres 2022
Figure 1. Comparison of transport performance in the period 2019–2022. Source: authors, according
Figure 1. Comparison of transport
Figure performance
1. Comparison in the
of transport period 2019–2022.
performance Source:
in the period authors,
2019–2022. according
Source: authors, according
to [60].
to [60]. to [60].

The
The number
number ofof passengers
The numbertransported
passengers by
of passengers
transported rail
rail in
in Slovakia
bytransported by railis
Slovakia isinanother
Slovakiaindicator
another is anotherof
indicator of the
indicator
the of the
shift in mobility. Figure
shift in 2 shows
mobility. the growth
Figure 2 in
showsthe
thenumber
growth of
in passengers
the number
shift in mobility. Figure 2 shows the growth in the number of passengers transported be- transported
of passengersbe-
transported
tween
tween 2019
2019 and
and 2022.
between 2019 and 2022.
2022.

7,000,000
passengers

7,000,000
transportedpassengers

6,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
Numberofoftransported

4,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
Number

1,000,000
1,000,000

Month
Month
2019 2020 2021 2022
2019 2020 2021 2022

Figure 2. Comparison of total

Figure number of
Comparison oftransported
total numberpassengers by passengers
of transported rail in Slovakia
by railin
in the period
Slovakia in the period
Figure 2. Comparison of 2.
total number of transported passengers by rail in Slovakia in the period
2019–2022. Source: authors, according to [60].
2019–2022. Source: 2019–2022. Source: authors,
authors, according to [60].according to [60].

A A significant decrease in the number ofpassengers

transported passengers per year can also be
A significant
significant decrease
decrease in
in the
the number
number of of transported
transported passengers per per year
year can
can also
also be
be
observed observed in the example of the specific regional railway line (Figure 3).
observed in
in the
the example
example of
of the
the specific
specific regional
regional railway
railway line
line (Figure
(Figure 3).
3).
024, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 8 of 23
8 of 22

2,150,000
COVID-19
Number of transported passengers

1,950,000

1,750,000

1,550,000

1,350,000

1,150,000

950,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year
Figure 3. Comparison of 3.the
Figure number ofoftransported
Comparison passengers
the number of per
transported year on the
passengers specific
per year regional
on the specific regional
railway line. Source: authors, according to [60].
railway line. Source: authors, according to [60].

Based on
Based on our research, weour research,and
analyzed we analyzed
evaluatedand
allevaluated all themeasures
the pandemic pandemic intro-
measures intro-
duced
duced in the Slovak in the Slovak
Republic Republic
and their and on
impact their impact on
mobility in mobility in rail passenger
rail passenger transport transport
according to 5-degree
according to the established the established 5-degree
so-called so-called
COVID COVID
machine machine
(Table 1). (Table 1).
Table 1. COVID machine for measures to restrict the movement of residents in Slovakia. Source:
Table 1. COVID machine for measures to restrict the movement of residents in Slovakia. Source:
authors, according to [61].
authors, according to [61].
Color Risk Description Degree
Color Risk
Description Degree
White No White
restrictions
No restrictions
Unlimited Unlimited 0 0
Monitoring Green Unlimited 0
Green Monitoring
Unlimited Unlimited; No visits to hospitals, welfare
0
Orange Unlimited; No visits
Vigilance to hospitals,
homes, welfareall
services, prisons, homes,
school ser-
field trips, 0
Orange Vigilance vices, prisons, all school
events, field trips,centers,
shopping events, shopping
churches. 0
centers, churches. Limited movement with exceptions from 9:00
Red 1st level of threat p.m. to 5:00 a.m.; Curfew, except for traveling 1
Limited movement with exceptions from 9:00 p.m. to
to work, for testing, stay in nature.
Red 1st level of threat 5:00 a.m.; Curfew,Limitedexcept movement
for travelingwithtoexceptions
work, forfrom 9:001
Burgundy testing,
2nd stay
level of in nature.
threat p.m. to 5:00 a.m.; Curfew with exceptions 1
Limited movement valid
with during holidays
exceptions and 9:00
from Christmas.
p.m. to
Burgundy 2nd level of threat 5:00 a.m.; Curfew Extended curfew from
with exceptions valid5 during
a.m. to 1holi-
a.m.; 1
inter-district travel ban; restricted movement
days and Christmas. with exemptions from 5 a.m. to 1 a.m.;
Extended curfew from measures5 a.m.
wereto tightened
1 a.m.; inter-district
while exemptions
Black travel
3rd levelban; restricted
of threat thatmovement
applied duringwithholidays
exemptions
and Christmas 2
were removed. Orders
from 5 a.m. to 1 a.m.; measures were tightened whilefrom the Home Office
included restrictions on visiting other
exemptions that applied during holidays and Christ-
Black 3rd level of threat people’s homes, spending time only in the 2
mas were removed. Orders from and
borough’s parks the Home Officeareas.
other natural in-
cluded restrictions on visiting other people’s homes,
spending time only in the borough’s parks and other
The aim of this system is to ensure measures that are simple, understandable, pre-
natural areas.
dictable, targeted, feasible, safe, and in accordance with the legislation [61]. Throughout the
period of validity of the specified type of COVID machine, this evaluation system provides
The aim of this system on
information is to
theensure
currentmeasures that with
risk associated are simple, understandable,
the applied measure at weekly pre- intervals.
dictable, targeted, feasible, safe, and in accordance with the legislation [61]. Throughout
In this study, the effect of COVID-19 measures on mobility in rail passenger transport in
the period of validity of the specified type of COVID machine, this evaluation system pro-
vides information on the current risk associated with the applied measure at weekly in-
tervals. In this study, the effect of COVID-19 measures on mobility in rail passenger
transport in Slovakia was assessed using the COVID machine system. As an example, we
used the measure that had the greatest impact on the mobility of the population among
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 9 of 22

Sustainability 2024, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 23

Slovakia was assessed using the COVID machine system. As an example, we used the
measure that had the greatest impact on the mobility of the population among all the
measures implemented. The COVID machine for restricting residents’ mobility is shown in
shown
Table 1,intogether
Table 1,with
together with the COVID-19
the COVID-19 measure. Itmeasure.
lists the It lists
risk the risk categories
categories with whichwiththe
which
color ofthe
thecolor of the
alleged alleged(or
warning warning
threat) (or threat) is associated.
is associated. Each riska includes
Each risk includes a de-
description of
the measures
scription of theimplemented and the level
measures implemented andofthe
infection
level ofrisk associated
infection with thosewith
risk associated measures.
those
The method
measures. Thefor evaluating
method the 5-degree
for evaluating COVID machine
the 5-degree in relation
COVID machine to the recognized
in relation to the rec-
COVID-19
ognized measuresmeasures
COVID-19 in the Slovak
in theRepublic is presented
Slovak Republic in Figurein
is presented 4. Figure 4.

Figure 4. Evaluation
Figure 4. Evaluation system
systemofofpandemic
pandemicmeasures
measuresaccording
according
to to
thethe 5-degree
5-degree COVID
COVID machine
machine in
in the
the Zilina region. Source: authors.
Zilina region. Source: authors.

The quantitative research was focused on measuring and testing the data from the
pandemic measures as well as transport performance in rail transport. There were tests of
the causal
causal relationships
relationshipsbetween
betweenvariables,
variables,making
making predictions
predictions andand generalizing
generalizing the the re-
results
sults to wider populations.
to wider populations.
The literature
literature review
reviewinvolved
involvedsearches
searchesfor foracademic
academicliterature
literature(peer-reviewed
(peer-reviewed jour-
journal
nal papers
papers only)only) performed
performed on Scopus
on Scopus and Google
and Google Scholar,
Scholar, as wellasaswell as searches
searches for expertfor papers,
expert
papers,
news sourcenewsinformation,
source information, and government
and government analysis.analysis.
This was This was performed
performed mainly mainly
during
the pandemic
during period between
the pandemic June 2020
period between Juneand January
2020 2022. 2022.
and January
combinationsused
Keyword combinations usedfor foracademic
academicand andgrey
grey literature
literature searches
searches were
were used
used as
as follows:
follows:
(1) “Covid 19” OR “covid19” OR “COVID-19” OR “coronavirus” OR “SARS-CoV-2”; “SARS-CoV-2”;
(2) “Measures”
“Measures” OR OR“response(s)”
“response(s)”OR OR “roadmap”
“roadmap” OROR “intervention”
“intervention” OR OR “strategy”
“strategy” OR
OR “strategies”;
“strategies”;
(3) “Recovery” OR “policy” OR “policy response” OR “phase-out”;
(4) “Strategy”
(4) “Strategy” OR OR “exit
“exit strategy(ies)”;
strategy(ies)”; OR OR “lifting
“lifting restrictions”
restrictions” OR OR “phased
“phased lifting”;
lifting”;
(5) “Railway transport” OR “railway transportation”
(5) “Railway transport” OR “railway transportation” OR “mobility”; OR “mobility”;
(6) “Impact”
(6) “Impact” OR OR“behaviour”
“behaviour”OR OR“travel”
“travel”OROR “travel
“travel behaviour”
behaviour” OR OR “perceptions”
“perceptions” OR
OR “transport”;
“transport”;
(7) “Mobility”
(7) “Mobility” OR OR “mobility”
“mobility” OROR “transport
“transport performance”.
performance”.
In each
In each case,
case, wewe searched
searched forfor aa combination
combination of of two
two or
or more
more ofof these
these strings. Due to
strings. Due to
the novelty of the topic, citations were not considered an important
the novelty of the topic, citations were not considered an important filter. filter.
A search
A search of ofwebsites
websiteswaswascarried
carriedout outusing
using thethe
Google
GoogleIGO (International
IGO (International Governmen-
Govern-
tal Organization) search engine [62]. A search of government websites
mental Organization) search engine [62]. A search of government websites of other inter- of other international
organizations
national for information
organizations on measures
for information on was conducted
measures (e.g., European
was conducted (e.g.,Commission/EU
European Com-
sites, UNECE, IRU, IMF, UNCTAD, UN-Habitat,
mission/EU sites, UNECE, IRU, IMF, UNCTAD, UN-Habitat, UN-WTO, UN-WTO, WTTC, the government
WTTC, theofgov- the
Slovak Republic).
ernment of the Slovak Republic).
The application and impacts of COVID-19 measures are in the academic literature,
The application and impacts of COVID-19 measures are in the academic literature,
catching up at some level, but impacts on railway transport are only a small range of pub-
catching up at some level, but impacts on railway transport are only a small range of pub-
lished research (e.g., EU COVID-19 transport measures, COVID Mobility Works, UNECE).
lished research (e.g., EU COVID-19 transport measures, COVID Mobility Works,
UNECE).
Therefore, news websites or blogs were also searched as needed to create a more up-
to-date picture of the experiences of the measures in different countries. Among all the
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 10 of 22
Sustainability 2024, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 23

Therefore, news websites or blogs were also searched as needed to create a more
up-to-date picture of the experiences of the measures in different countries. Among all
sources mentioned, several research databases with records of the types of COVID-19
the sources mentioned, several research databases with records of the types of COVID-19
(transport) measures worldwide were found and searched.
(transport) measures worldwide were found and searched.
In transport, the reductions in the scope of performance were influenced by political
In transport, the reductions in the scope of performance were influenced by political
decisions limitingthe
decisions limiting themobility
mobilityofof the
the population,
population, and and subsequently,
subsequently, thethe operators
operators of rail-
of railway
way transport reacted with certain measures for the reduction
transport reacted with certain measures for the reduction in transport performance. in transport performance.
An important
An important research
research procedure
procedure included
included the the discussion
discussion of of experts
experts within
within thethe re-
re-
search team, which was created at the Faculty of Operation
search team, which was created at the Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Economics of Transport
andCommunications
and Communicationsof ofthe
theUniversity
Universityof ofZilina.
Zilina. AsAs part
part ofof the
the solution
solutionto tothe
theCOVID-19
COVID-19
project, the impacts and measures for all modes of transport
project, the impacts and measures for all modes of transport were investigated. were investigated.
The main
The main brainstorming
brainstorming formatformat was was panel
panel discussions
discussions with with approximately
approximately 50 50 core
core
researchersinintransport
researchers transportfrom fromthetheUniversity
University ofof Zilina
Zilina asas well
well as as experts
experts from
from thethe Ministry
Ministry of
of Transport of the Slovak Republic, the railway infrastructure
Transport of the Slovak Republic, the railway infrastructure manager (Zeleznice Slovenskej manager (Zeleznice Slov-
enskej Republiky),
Republiky), and railwayand railway
operators operators
operating operating
passenger passenger rail transport
rail transport (Zeleznicna (Zeleznicna
Spoloc-
Spolocnost Slovensko Inc., Regiojet Inc.
nost Slovensko Inc., Regiojet Inc. Czech Republic). Czech Republic).
The quantitative
The quantitative research
research waswas conducted
conductedusing usingbrainstorming
brainstormingmethods, methods,the theaimaimof
which
of which waswas
to model
to model measures in passenger
measures rail transport.
in passenger DuringDuring
rail transport. the qualitative research
the qualitative
step, westep,
research examined
we examined the opinions,
the opinions, behaviors,
behaviors,andand experiences
experiences ofofexperts
experts in railway
in railway
transport.They
transport. Theycollected
collectedand andanalyzed
analyzeddata dataand
and findings
findingsin in research
researchpapers.
papers. This
This research
research
methodology was
methodology was drawn
drawn fromfrom research
research topics
topics atat the
the faculty,
faculty,which
whichconsists
consistsof ofexperts
expertsin in
transport in all transport modes. Results and findings for railway
transport in all transport modes. Results and findings for railway transport are used in transport are used in
thispaper.
this paper.
Tovalidate
To validatethe thefindings
findingsandand explain
explain anyany unexpected
unexpected results
results obtained,
obtained, a mixed-meth-
a mixed-methods
research methodology
ods research methodology waswasused usedto verify if the
to verify if the results
results observed
observedusing usingbothbothmethods
methods
were
werecomplementary.
complementary.
Based
Basedon onthe
the mentioned
mentionedmethods,
methods,the the authors
authors proposed
proposedaa universal
universalmethodology
methodologyfor for
the pandemic measures system in railway passenger transport.
the pandemic measures system in railway passenger transport. There were several useful There were several useful
scientific
scientificmethods
methodsthat thatarearegeneral
generaland anduniversal,
universal,but butthey
theyareareespecially
especiallyapplicable
applicableto tothe
the
given
givenissue.
issue. The
The methodology
methodologyconsistsconsistsof ofseveral
severalsteps,
steps,which
whichare areshown
shownin inFigure
Figure5.5.

Figure5.5.Proposed
Figure Proposed methodology
methodology of the
of the pandemic
pandemic measures
measures systemsystem for railway
for railway transport.
transport. Source:
Source: authors.
authors.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 11 of 22

Analysis and identification of established pandemic measures by the government—In

this step, quantitative research was used for measuring and testing the data from the
pandemic measures. The literature review involved searches for academic literature as well
as news sources and government analysis. A search of the government websites of other
international organizations for information on measures was conducted. Subsequently,
these levels of measures were structured so that they could be more deeply analyzed
and compared.
Analysis and identification of established pandemic measures in railway operations—In
this step, quantitative research was used to measure and test the data from the pandemic
measures in railway transport. The literature review involved searches for academic
literature as well as expert papers. We acknowledge that there is some subjectivity in our
choice of materials and that our literature list is bound to be incomplete due to the constant
appearance of new publications about COVID-19. We think our analytical framework and
conceptualization of links between measures are not sensitive to the selection of literature,
but some of the empirical findings could be influenced to some extent.
Proposal of a system of pandemic measures in railway operation for the pandemic
period—The system analysis method was used to improve an analyzed system of a variety
of announced measures to create and implement a new system. The main activities in
system analysis were problem definition, research, and analysis of affiliated systems,
determining the method of solving the problem, and the introduction of a new structure.
System analysis is a specific method for precise and empirically intuitive investigation of
the basic properties and goals of simple and complex systems in various areas.
Proposal and implementation of 3 stages of pandemic measures and their optimization—
On the grounds of information research and system analysis, a panel of experts in railway
transport was organized. This contained forecasting based on input data and provided
a vision or recommendations for future options and needs related to the examined trans-
portation topic. The method involves approximately 30 to 60 experts who deal with the
specific problem for a set amount of time (1 to 2 years). The basis is the development of
final outputs based on joint compromises and joint scientific and professional research.
We propose to divide the measures into three levels according to the severity of the
epidemiological situation. Within these levels, we will propose a set of new measures—
operational and organizational measures—that will follow from the general measures
adopted by the government.
Proposal of a new system of pandemic measures at the government level—A panel of
experts proposed the new system of 3-stage pandemic measures at the government level,
which is proposed conceptually for all economies in the region (country).
Proposal of operational and organizational measures in railway transport—A panel of
experts proposed the new system of 3-stage pandemic measures at the railway transport
sector level. In passenger transportation, there are conceptualized measures for infrastruc-
ture managers as well as for the railway operators operating passenger transport in all
segments (regional, long-distance, and international).
Adjustment of train connections in the train traffic diagram according to pandemic
measure level (regional transport, long-distance transport, international transport)—In the
frame of quantitative research procedures, the key is the discussion of experts within the
research team, which was created at the Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport
and Communications of the University of Zilina. The main brainstorming format was
panel discussions with approximately 50 core researchers in the field of transport from
the university as well as from practice. The percentage reduction in railway connections
in regional, long-distance, and international transport was carried out based on previous
pandemic experiences, scientific methods, and expert discussions from practice.
In addition, the SFMEA (System Failure Mode Effects Analysis) method was devel-
oped. It is a particular management technique that evaluates systems and subsystems early
on (during the conceptual stage), focuses on the interconnections between systems and
system elements, and then suggests improvement processes and procedures.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 12 of 22

Prediction of traffic performance in railway passenger transport (regional transport,

long-distance transport, and international transport)—The panel expert method was used
for forecasting, which, based on input data, provided a vision or recommendations for
future pandemic options and needs related to the examined transportation topic. The
method involves approximately 30 to 50 experts who deal with the specific problem
for a set amount of time (1 to 2 years). The basis is the development of final outputs
based on joint compromises and joint scientific and professional research. In addition
to predicting passenger flows in individual measures, it was important to establish the
minimum value of traffic performance (number of train connections per day) during the
strictest pandemic measures.
The individual parts of the research follow each other, and it is very important to
preserve their hierarchy. In the case of the risk of the spread of a potentially infectious
disease, it is necessary to analyze and correctly identify certain measures by the state, which
will be applied in a comprehensive framework. Based on them, it will be necessary to adapt
and adopt specific measures in railway operations at the level of the infrastructure manager
and carriers.
This research in determining the size of the volume of traffic services provided during
pandemic measures is prompted by the importance of precisely setting the functioning of
the transport system during pandemic measures. For this, it is important to define the basic
levels of government measures to limit mobility, for which the desired range of transport
can be further explored. The goal is to prevent the waste of public resources on public
passenger transport while maintaining a certain amount of basic transport service during
the restrictions so that the operation of the national economy is not threatened.
The benefit and novelty of the proposed structure of measures lie in the fact that within
them we can mutually establish current knowledge and experience in traffic processes,
railway operation technology, and transport management for the needs of pandemic
mobility. The system analysis method and SFMEA methods help to create a synergistic
effect between these areas, which will result in a unique solution based on the proposal of a
methodical procedure. The expert method panel significantly helps to propose systematic
and professional solutions for individual parts of the methodological procedure and their
appropriate practical application, including forecasts and predictions for the future.
All these methods will help to conceptually solve the issue, which will solve the
current bottlenecks of current research in the field of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
in the future. From the point of view of the complexity, specification, and uniqueness of our
research, it was, therefore, most appropriate to use these methods. Other methods would
not be able to adequately cover this issue.
An important scientific part of the support of the proposal is the setting of hypotheses,
scientific research assumptions, or research questions. Within the conducted research, we
have determined the following research questions:
(1) Does the number of transported passengers depend on the level of measures taken
based on the current epidemiological situation?
(2) Is it possible to assume that a suitable conceptual and systemic setting of measures in
railway passenger transport will not significantly reduce transport performance even
during a worsening of the epidemiological situation?
Such a procedure for researching the impact of pandemic measures on ensuring
mobility can be used in the future when restrictions are introduced. This will be possi-
ble according to prepared procedures with predictable impacts on the population and
the economy.

4. Results
One of the strategies that successfully lessen the negative economic effects on passen-
ger (and freight) transportation is the development of policies for a sustainable rail transport
market. The use of these criteria by each member state needs to be transparent, unbiased,
and free from prejudice. As part of EU initiatives for a sustainable rail transport market,
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 13 of 22

infrastructure managers should be permitted to determine market surcharges for the use
of infrastructure or reduce, release, or postpone payment of infrastructure access costs.
The infrastructure manager’s operational and employee-focused COVID-19 preventive
strategies are listed in Table 2. The goal of these tactics is to halt the virus’s spread.

Table 2. Proposal of measures introduced by the infrastructure manager. Source: authors.

Infrastructure Manager Measures

Employees Operation
Cleaning and disinfecting the surfaces, handles,
Provide safe and hygienic goods to staff
handrails, armrests, tables, and other areas of
members who interact with passengers.
the train station
Public education on how to stop the spread of
Permit the infrastructure manager’s staff to the virus when using public transportation
work from home if their line of work permits it. through pamphlets and information
technology in stations
Making room for stopping trains or wagons in
If the nature of the work and the working
case of an emergency, introducing the use of an
environment permit it, reduce the number of
infrastructure manager/employee to mediate
personnel present during the shift.
the sale of travel papers (contract)

Table 3 contains a list of the planned actions for train operators (railway undertakings)
at the station and onboard the train. Passengers will be able to travel by train in comfort,
safety, and responsibly by implementing air conditioning, higher cleanliness standards,
and other crucial steps in the compartment.

Table 3. Proposal of measures introduced by the railway operator. Source: authors.

Operators Measures
In the Train
In the Station
Passenger Operation
Introduce the requirement
Make seat reservations in Establish a daily inspection of
to always wear a face mask
long-distance trains (apart from the air conditioner’s
or respirator while traveling
passenger trains) mandatory. operation.
on any of the carrier’s trains.
Introduce the sale of or
Limit client seating (every
requirement to buy travel
other table) in restaurant
papers in advance (through Monthly filter replacement
wagons to preserve the
online stores, mobile apps, SMS
required distance.
tickets, etc.).
Beyond routine cleaning,
Permit passengers to disinfection should occur at
Suspension of the storage consume food to go or use least once per day. Polymer
room’s luggage reception an app to order food directly disinfection should be done
from their seat twice per week and last for
6–7 days.
Increase the safety of all
Do not distribute and transfer
Permit passengers to employees working for the
objects that have been found on
purchase food from carrier by placing
trains even after getting in touch
mobile bars disinfectants in all train
with the person who lost them.
wagon access areas.

The influence of the number of transported passengers on the degree of measures

introduced in the period from March 2020 to February 2021 is shown in Figure 6, and in the
period from March 2021 to February 2022 in Figure 7.
Sustainability
Sustainability2024,
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2024, 16,xx5283
16, FOR
FOR PEER
PEER REVIEW
REVIEW 14
14 of
of 22
14 of 22

6.00
6.00

(mil.)
passengers(mil.)
5.00
5.00

Numberofofpassengers
4.00
4.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Number
1.00
0.00
0.00
00 0.5
0.5 11 1.5
1.5 22 2.5
2.5 33 3.5
3.5
Measures
Measures level
level

Figure
Figure6.6.
Figure The
6.The
The influence
influence of
of the
of the
influence number
number
the of
of transported
of transported
number passengers
passengers
transported on
on the
on the degree
passengers degree
theof of
of measures
measures
degree in the
measures in
in th
th
period
period from
from March
March 2020
2020 to to February
February 2021.
2021. Source:
Source: authors.
authors.
period from March 2020 to February 2021. Source: authors.

6.00
6.00
(mil.)
passengers(mil.)

5.00
5.00
Numberofofpassengers

4.00
4.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Number

0.00
0.00
00 0.5
0.5 11 1.5
1.5 22 2.5
2.5 33 3.5
3.5
Measures
Measures level
level

Figure
Figure7.7.
Figure
The
7.The
The influence
influence
influence
of
of the
of the the number
number
number
of
of transported
transported
of transported
passengers
passengers
passengers
on
on the degree
theof
on the degree degree of
of measures
measuresmeasures
in the
in
in th
th
period from
periodfrom
from March
March 2021
2021 to February
to February 2022. Source: authors.
period March 2021 to February 2022.2022. Source:
Source: authors.
authors.

As
As part
partofof
Aspart further
further
of research,
research,
further the
the dependence
the dependence
research, dependence of theof the
train
of train
train kilometers
thekilometers as well as
kilometers well
well as
as the as th
th
number
number of transported passengers on the degree of the implemented
number of transported passengers on the degree of the implemented measure has been
of transported passengers on the degree of the measure
implemented has
measurebeen has bee
worked
worked out (see Figure 8). 8).The graph shows that the number of train kilometers was
worked out out (see
(see Figure
Figure 8). TheThe graph
graph showsshows that that the
the number
number of of train
train kilometers
kilometers wa wa
slightly
slightlyreduced
reduced in the
in spring
the months
spring of
months 2020
of and
2020 the
and winter
the months
winter of 2021.
months The
of number
2021. The numbe
slightly reduced in the spring months of 2020 and the winter
of transported passengers changed more significantly. A major drop was recorded in months of 2021. The numbe
of
of transported
transported passengers
passengers changed
changed more
more significantly.
significantly. AA major drop
drop was
majormonths, was recorded
recorded in i
April 2020, but gradually these values began to increase in the following but from
April 2020,
April 2020,2020
September
but gradually
butuntil
gradually these
these
February
values
values
2021,
began
theybegan
to increase
to increase
decreased again. in
in the
In the
following
the following
months,
spring andmonths,
but
summer but from
from
September
September
months 2020
of 2021, theuntil
2020 until
numberFebruary
February 2021,
2021, they
of transported they decreased
decreased
passengers again.
again.
decreased, In the
Infrom
but spring
spring and
the September andto summe
summe
months
months of 2021, the number of transported passengers decreased, but from September tt
December, of 2021,
they oncethe number
again of transported
decreased. In the passengers
course of 2022, decreased,
there was an but from
increase in September
their
December,
number
December, they
they once
once again
and subsequent decreased.
decreased. In
stabilization.
again In the
the course
course of of 2022,
2022, there
there was
was anan increase
increase in in thei
thei
Based
number on
and previous
subsequent measures that
stabilization.
number and subsequent stabilization. were introduced in the Slovak Republic, a new
system of measures is proposed, the so-called COVID machine, which will be applied in
railway passenger transport. For better clarity and efficiency, only three levels of measures
are proposed. The individual levels will correspond to measures taken by the state, which
are shown in Table 4.
tainability 2024, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 15 of 22

6,000,000 3.5

5,000,000 3
2.5
4,000,000
2
3,000,000
1.5
2,000,000
1
1,000,000 0.5
0 0
jun

august

jun
december

august

december
april

october

april

october
march

may

march
february

may

february
july

november

july

november
september

september
january

january
degree number of train kilometres number of passengers

Figure 8. Dependence
Figure ofofthe
8. Dependence thetrain kilometers
train kilometers transported
transported passengers
passengers andofdegree
and degree of implemen
implemented
measure (period March 2020–February 2022). Source: authors.
measure (period March 2020–February 2022). Source: authors.

Table 4. New system of proposed anti-pandemic measures. Source: authors.

Based on previous measures that were introduced in the Slovak Republic, a new s
tem ofLevel
measures is proposed,Measures the so-called
Introduced COVID
by the machine,
State within which
the Particular will be applied in ra
Level
way passenger transport.
Shops For better
and establishments clarity
are open andsmall
(possible efficiency,
restrictionsonly three
regarding the levels of measu
limitation
of the number of customers);
are proposed. The individual levels will correspond to measures taken by the state, wh
Home office introduced only in necessary cases in certain jobs;
are shown in Universities
Table 4. are closed, secondary and primary schools are open (possibly with
1
small restrictions);
Capacityof
Table 4. New system limitation
proposed at mass events;
anti-pandemic measures. Source: authors.
Slight restrictions on travel abroad;
Level No curfews.
Measures Introduced by the State within the Particular Level
Shops andCertain shops and establishments
establishments are closed (possible
are open (possible restrictions regarding
small restrictions regarding thethe limitation o
limitation of the number of customers);
the number
Homeof customers);
office is recommended for most jobs;
break/Home
2 officeareintroduced
Universities only and
closed, secondary in necessary cases
primary schools areinopen
certain
(withjobs;
strict restrictions);
Certain mass events are closed, strict capacity limitations
break/Universities are closed, secondary and primary schools are open at other mass events;(possibly with sm
1 Certain restrictions on travel abroad, possibly in certain areas within the state;
restrictions);
Possibly curfews in certain areas or regions.
break/Capacity limitation at mass events;
Most shops and establishments are closed;
break/Slight restrictions on in
Home office is required travel
most abroad;
jobs (if possible);
break/No Close universities and secondary schools, possibly even elementary schools;
curfews.
3
All mass events are canceled;
CertainTravel
shopsrestrictions
and establishments are closed (possible restrictions regarding the limitatio
or prohibitions abroad, possibly also between districts;
of the number
Curfews of customers);
at certain hours.
break/Home office is recommended for most jobs;
break/Universities
Table 5 contains theareproposal
closed, secondary and primary
of specific operational andschools are open
organizational (with strict
measures in
2
restrictions);
the railway operator in the case of particular levels of the introduced measures.
break/Certain mass events are closed, strict capacity limitations at other mass events;
break/Certain restrictions on travel abroad, possibly in certain areas within the state;
break/Possibly curfews in certain areas or regions.
Most shops and establishments are closed;
break/Home office is required in most jobs (if possible);
break/Close universities and secondary schools, possibly even elementary schools;
3
break/All mass events are canceled;
break/Travel restrictions or prohibitions abroad, possibly also between districts;
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 16 of 22

Table 5. Overview of the proposed operational and organizational measures in terms of railway
operator. Source: authors.

Level Operational and Organizational Measures

Increased disinfection of trains, stations, and common areas, distribution of mini
vitamin packages, preventive random temperature measurement of passengers,
1
recommendation to purchase travel documents online (partial restriction of sale of
travel documents at personal ticket offices).
Increased disinfection of trains, stations, and common areas, distribution of classic
vitamin packages, installation of special equipment to identify symptoms of the
2 COVID-19 disease (including additional hand disinfection), a strong
recommendation to purchase travel documents online (significant restriction of
sales of travel documents at personal cash registers), closure of customer centers.
Significant disinfection of trains, stations, and common areas, distribution of maxi
vitamin packages, installation of special equipment to identify symptoms of the
COVID-19 disease (including additional hand disinfection), possibility to purchase
3
travel documents only online (sales at personal ticket offices suspended), closure
of customer centers, provision of basic transport services only for critical
infrastructure employees.

It is also critical to emphasize that, should the actions be implemented, fewer train con-
nections will be made. Long-distance rail passenger transport, international rail passenger
transport, and regional and suburban rail passenger transport must all be distinguished,
nevertheless. Every one of the aforementioned varieties has unique characteristics and guar-
antees that the needs of other passenger groups are met. Table 6 displays the suggestion for
reducing specific modes of transportation within the individual measure levels.

Table 6. Relative values of reduction proposal of train performance in train kilometers according to
the measures level. Source: authors.

Number of Connection Reduction

Level Regional and Suburban Rail Long-Distance Rail International Rail
Passenger Transport Passenger Transport Passenger Transport
1 10% 20% 30%
2 20% 30% 50%
3 30% 50% 100%

Based on the proposal and data on transport performance in previous years in Slovakia
(number of train kilometers), there is a possibility to create a prediction in the event of a
reduction in regional and long-distance rail passenger transport. An example of prediction
data is shown in Table 7.

Table 7. Train performance prediction in train kilometers, according to the measures taken.
Source: authors.

Prediction in the Case Without 1st Level 2nd Level 3rd Level
of Introduced Restrictions [Train [Train [Train [Train
Measures (per Week) Kilometers] Kilometers] Kilometers] Kilometers]
Regional and
suburban passenger 495,238.97 445,715.08 396,191.18 346,667.28
transport
Long-distance rail
212,245.27 169,796.22 148,571.69 106,122.64
passenger transport

The prediction of total train kilometers per week in the case of introduced measures is
shown in Figure 9.
ty 2024,Sustainability
16, x FOR PEER2024,REVIEW
16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 23 17 of 23

The predictionThe
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 prediction
of total of total train
train kilometers perkilometers per
week in the week
case in the case of
of introduced introduced measures
measures 17 of 22
is shown
is shown in Figure 9. in Figure 9.

600,000.00 600,000.00

Total train kilometres

500,000.00
Total train kilometres
500,000.00

400,000.00 400,000.00

300,000.00 300,000.00

200,000.00 200,000.00

100,000.00 100,000.00

- -
0 10 21 32 43 54 5
Degree of measures
Degree of measures
Regional
Regional and suburban and suburban
passenger passengerLong-distance
transport transport railLong-distance rail passenger transport
passenger transport

Figure
Figure 9. Prediction of 9.
thePrediction
transport of the transport
performance of performance of measures.
the introduced the introduced measures.
Source: authors.Source: authors.
Figure 9. Prediction of the transport performance of the introduced measures. Source: authors.

The last part of Thethelast

The
part
research
last
of thetheresearch
part ofisthe proposal
research
is the
thethe
is of
proposal of thetrain
train traffic
proposal
traintraffic
of the diagram,
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where diagram, where
the where
diagram, the
the
specific
specific examples examples
of theexamples
specific reducedof of the
number reduced
of train
the reduced number of
connections
number train
of train onconnections on
the modelonrailway
connections the model
the model railway
linerailway lineline
A–B
A–B are shown.A–B are
Theare shown.
shown. The
proposals The proposals are implemented
proposals are implemented
are implemented according
according to according to the
to thelevels
the individual individual
individual levels
(1–3) levels (1–3)
(1–3)
and
and types of railand types of rail passenger
types oftransport.
passenger rail passenger transport.
Thetransport.
number ofThe The number
number
trains of trains
of trains
is reduced is
byisthereduced
reduced
valueby by the value shown
the value shown
shown
inincircuits
in Table 6. The Table
Table 6.ofThe
The circuits
thecircuits
train of setofinthe
the thetrain
train set settheinregional
in
regional the regional
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passengerpassenger passenger
transport are transport
transport are shownare
shown
shown in Figure in10; in Figure
Figure
the 10; the 10;
individual the
individualindividual
connections connections
connections
are in are
are marked
marked marked
in
color. color. in color.

Figure
Figure
Figure 10. Impact 10.
10.Impact
Impact
of introduced of
ofintroduced
introduced
measures measures
on themeasures onthe
regionalon theregional
railway regional railway
railway
operation. operation.
operation.
Source: Source:
Source:
authors. authors.
authors.

On the model On Onthethemodel

railway model
line, 20 railway
railway
pairs ofline, 20 pairs
20
regional pairs ofregional
of
trains regional trains
operatetrains operate
in anoperate
hourly in
anan
incycle. hourly
hourly
In cycle.
cycle. In In
thecase
the caseofofaareduction
reduction of 10%, two two pairs
pairs ofoftrains
trains are
areomitted,
omitted, namely
namely thethe
first morning
first morning
the case of a reduction of 10%, two pairs of trains are omitted, namely the first morning
trainservice
train service onrouteroute A–B and and three
threeinconnections in the
theevening saddle. InIn the case of a
train service on route A–B on and threeA–B connections connections
the eveninginsaddle. evening
In the saddle.
case of a the case of a
reduction
reduction of 20%,
of 20%, two more pairs of train services are omitted in addition to the reduction
reduction of 20%, two more pairstwo moreservices
of train pairs of are
train services
omitted in are omitted
addition in addition
to the reduction to the reduction
ofof 10%
10% (one
(one pair
pair in
in the
the morning
morning saddle
saddle and
and one
one pair
pair at
atthe
theend
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the afternoon
afternoon rush
rushhour).
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of 10% (one pairIninthe
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reduction of one
30%, pair
two atvariants
the endare of the afternoon
proposed. In rushfirst
the hour).
case, two extra
In the case of In the case of
apairs
reduction ofa30%,
are reduced
reduction
two
(one
of 30%,are
variants
pair
twoproposed.
at the beginning
variants are
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proposed.
the
morning firstrush
case,In two
the first
hour and extra case, two extra
one pair at the
pairs
pairs are reduced are reduced
(one pairofatthe (one pair
theafternoon
beginning at the beginning
of the morning of the morning rush hour and
theone pair at the
beginning rush hour), and in rush hour and
the second caseonealso,pair
two atextra pairs (one
beginning
beginning of the afternoon of the
rush afternoon
hour), rush
and inrushhour),
the hour and
second in the second case also, two
(one rushpairs
extra (one
pair at the end of the morning andcasethe also,
othertwopair extra
at thepairs
afternoon hour).
pair at the endpair at the
of the end ofrush
morning the morning
hour andrush hour and
the other pair the other
at the pair at the
afternoon rushafternoon
hour). rush hour).
Sustainability 2024, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 23
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 18 of 22

Also, one pair of trains in the evening saddle hour is removed, but in addition, the first
Also, one
morning pair of trains
connection in theA–B
on route evening saddle
and the lasthour is removed,
evening buton
connection in route
addition,
B–Athe first
is added.
morning connection on route A–B and the last evening connection on route
However, it is comprehensively true that even in the case of a reduced number of B–A is added.
However, it is comprehensively true that even in the case of a reduced number of
train connections, the train set circulation must be ensured as efficiently as possible, and
train connections, the train set circulation must be ensured as efficiently as possible, and
basic transfer links to other railway lines must also be observed. In the case of the worst
basic transfer links to other railway lines must also be observed. In the case of the worst
pandemic situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the increased disinfection of partic-
pandemic situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the increased disinfection of particular
ular train
train sets.sets.
TheThe circuits
circuits of train
of the the train sets
sets in in long-distance
long-distance railway
railway passenger
passenger transport
transport are
are shown
shown in Figure
in Figure 11. 11.

Figure
Figure11.
11.Impact
Impactof
ofintroduced
introduced measures onthe
measures on thelong-distance
long-distancerailway
railway operation.
operation. Source:
Source: authors.
authors.

InInthe
thecase
caseof oflong-distance
long-distance transport,
transport, we
weare
areconsidering
consideringa abasic
basictransport
transport operation
operation
ofof1010pairs
pairsofoflong-distance
long-distance trains
trains on
on routes
routes A
Aand
andBBinina atwo-hour
two-hour cycle.
cycle.InIn
thethecase of aof a
case
20% reduction, two pairs of train connections are omitted, namely, the train
20% reduction, two pairs of train connections are omitted, namely, the train set marked set marked in in
gray. In the case of a 30% reduction, in addition to the grey set, one more pair
gray. In the case of a 30% reduction, in addition to the grey set, one more pair is omitted, is omitted,
namely,the
namely, thetrain
trainset
set marked
marked in in red,
red, which
whichdeparts
departsfrom
fromstation
stationAAatat
9:00 a.m.
9:00 a.m.and from
and from
station B at 2:00 p.m. In the case of a 50% reduction, five pairs of long-distance trains are
station B at 2:00 p.m. In the case of a 50% reduction, five pairs of long-distance trains are
proposed on the mentioned railway line in a regular four-hour cycle. The circulation of the
proposed on the mentioned railway line in a regular four-hour cycle. The circulation of
train sets is subsequently adapted to this concept of operation. Longer stays of the train
the train sets is subsequently adapted to this concept of operation. Longer stays of the
sets in the stations could be used for increased disinfection.
train sets in the stations could be used for increased disinfection.
5. Discussion
5. Discussion
In particular, a number of initiatives must be put in place to improve the effectiveness
andInallure
particular, a number
of railway of initiatives
passenger must be
transportation. Theput
keyingoal
place tobe
will improve the effectiveness
to continue providing
dependable, safe, sustainable, and high-quality public passenger transportation,
and allure of railway passenger transportation. The key goal will be to continue providing even in
extreme circumstances.
dependable, Encouraging
safe, sustainable, passengers
and high-quality to usepassenger
public public transportation
transportation,as much
even in
as possible,
extreme even during
circumstances. an epidemic,
Encouraging is just as to
passengers crucial as adequately
use public protecting
transportation them as
as much
from illnesses.
possible, Thus, an
even during the epidemic,
paper’s central
is justtheme revolved
as crucial around the protecting
as adequately specified core
thempoint.
from
illnesses. Thus, the paper’s central theme revolved around the specified core point.forThe
The analysis of transport flows and the current situation served as the foundation
the proposal’s implementation. Its key theoretical contribution lies in the proposal of
analysis of transport flows and the current situation served as the foundation for the pro-
new systems and procedures in rail passenger transport in the event of a worsening
posal’s implementation. Its key theoretical contribution lies in the proposal of new systems
pandemic situation. The key practical benefit lies in the provision of efficient and safe
and procedures
passenger in rail
mobility in passenger transport
the aforementioned in the event
emergency of a worsening
situation. Currently,pandemic
there is no situation.
similar
The key practical benefit lies in the provision of efficient and safe passenger mobility in the
aforementioned emergency situation. Currently, there is no similar methodical procedure
and no crisis plan for dealing with similar emergency situations in railway passenger
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 19 of 22

methodical procedure and no crisis plan for dealing with similar emergency situations in
railway passenger transport. Therefore, the proposed plan is one of the options to ensure
more efficient functioning of railway passenger transport even during possible crises and
emergency situations in the future.
Within the mentioned research, two research questions or hypotheses were also es-
tablished. Research question 1 dealt with whether the number of transported passengers
depends on the level of individual measures. Considering the results shown in the graphs
in Figures 6–8, we can conclude that this dependence is significant, although the situation in
the first, second, and third COVID-19 waves between 2020 and 2022 was slightly different.
However, hypothesis no. 1 can be accepted. Research question 2 dealt with whether the
conceptual and systematic setting of measures will not cause a significant reduction in
transport performance even when the epidemiological situation worsens. The best answer
would be detailed monitoring and analysis based on the current real situation in practice.
However, the predictions in Figure 9 indicate that the individual levels of measures will
cause a reduction in train kilometers, which logically can also cause a decrease in transport
performance, but expert estimates indicate that this decrease will not be as significant as it
was in the first and second COVID-19 waves when measures were taken by the state hastily
and unsystematically. Therefore, based on the mentioned outputs and expert estimates, it
is possible to accept this hypothesis as well.
The mentioned proposal and methodological procedure will contribute to the increase
and efficiency of the operation of railway passenger transport, especially in times of crisis,
when it is necessary to reduce the number of train connections. On a global scale, it
establishes a systematic solution for the entire passenger transport sector. A functional
transportation system is extremely important for a functioning economy, as well as other
important sectors of the national economy. It follows that the practical contribution of
the proposals is societal and has a significant impact on the development of society and
sustainable development for people’s lives in the long term.
The limitations of the proposed methodology lie in the correct linking of measures to
limit public rail transport in the context of government pandemic measures. In the lessons
learned from the crisis development and from the discussion within the research team, it
is possible to clearly define the need to ensure a certain level of the scope of operation of
railway transport, especially in regional transport. With the strictest pandemic measures,
it is necessary to maintain this minimum range of performance in public transport. We
consider two hours as the minimum interval between connections in suburban transport.
The risk of achieving the optimal variant of the graph from the point of view of the
economy is achieving a balanced circulation of sets with the necessary operational breaks
for the necessary disinfection. Furthermore, the research should move in the direction of
determining the safety of passengers from the point of view of preventing the spread of the
disease. This will have the effect of reducing the population’s fears of travelling by public
transport and increasing the number of passengers, especially commuters.

6. Conclusions
The presented research in the contribution analyzes and describes the development
trend of the selected indicators of railway passenger transport in the Slovak Republic in
the period 2019–2022. Based on the available materials, analyzed indicators, and selected
scientific methods, a new system and procedure for pandemic measures introduction has
been elaborated with respect to supporting and developing public passenger transport
during a pandemic period. The output of the complex research is, from a scientific point of
view, the structuring of procedures for limiting mobility during a pandemic, the dependence
between the degree of the announced measure and the degree of reduction in traffic
performance in rail transport, and subsequently, transport performance in the number of
passengers. To set traffic reduction measures depending on pandemic measures comes
across as setting a minimum traffic service that should be guaranteed. The novelty of the
research brings the new methodological procedure and its practical application.
Sustainability 2024, 16, 5283 20 of 22

These proposals provide a comprehensive tool for managing constraints in the railway
passenger transport system, where both the railway infrastructure manager and the carrier
have their roles. The development of the mentioned issue will be the subject of further
scientific and research activities of the authors. Specifically, we will focus on increasing
the attractiveness of railway passenger transport through deeper timetable optimization
and introducing other measures to increase its efficiency. Current research, as well as
possible future research, will significantly contribute to sustainable public mobility as well
as cognitive mobility during a pandemic period that brings solutions for public transport.
The results of this study show that there has been a significant decrease in the use
of public transport modes, a trend that is likely to continue, given the preferences of the
participants. Such a shift in trends is not only a threat to the environment but also a
major challenge to the global goals of sustainable development. Based on these trends,
this study further makes recommendations to make the use of public transport safe and
resilient in the long term. The findings of this study can be beneficial for transport planning
during epidemics in the context of properly setting faulty mobility restriction measures
and determining travel restrictions by considering people’s travel motives and transport
mode choices.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, J.G., Z.B. and M.D.; Data curation, Z.B. and M.D.; Formal
analysis, Z.B.; Funding acquisition, J.G.; Investigation, Z.B. and M.D.; Methodology, J.G., Z.B. and
M.D.; Project administration, J.G.; Resources, Z.B. and M.D.; Supervision, J.G.; Visualization, M.D.;
Writing—original draft, Z.B. and M.D.; Writing—review and editing, Z.B. and M.D. All authors have
read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the
Contract no. APVV-19-0444.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the
study.
Data Availability Statement: Data are contained within the article.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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