MA2172 Take-home assignment 1 Semester A 2020/21

Due Date: 3 October 2020 (Saturday of Week 5)

Question 1 [20 marks]

In a production process, a total number of 50 items were produced by machines Mi, Ma

and M. Of those items being produced, 27 were made by machine M, 13 were made
by M, and 10 were made by M. The three machines work independently, however,
they do not work perfectly. From the past experience, 9% of the items produced by M;
are defective, 7% of the items produced by M, are defective, and 4% of the items
produced by M3 are defective.

(a) Given that a randomly selected item is non-defective, what is the probability that
it is produced by machine A5? [10 marks]

(b) If two items which are not produced by machine A are selected at random
without replacement, what is the probability that at least one of them is
non-defective? [10 marks]

Question 2 [20 marks]

The probabilities that John will choose Physics, Chemistry and Biology in the summer
semester are 0.4, 0.7 and 0.6, respectively. If John has decided to choose Physics, the
probabilities of choosing Chemistry and Biology are increased to 0.8 and 0.75,
respectively. On the other hand, if he has decided not to choose Biology, the probability
of choosing Physics only becomes 0.05. The probability that John will choose both
Chemistry and Biology but not Physics is 0.15.

(a) What is the probability that John will choose Physics only? [4 marks]

(b) What is the probability that John will choose all three courses? [8 marks]

(c) What is the probability that John will not choose any course in the summer
semester? [8 marks]
Question 3 [20 marks]

A system consists of five components in two branches as shown in the following

diagram:

In other words, the system works if components 4 and B work or components C, D, and
E work. Assume that the components fail independently with the following
probabilities:

P(A fails) = P(B fails) = 0.3 and P(C fails) = P(D fails) = P(E fails) = 0.2.

(a) What is the probability that the system works? [6 marks]

(b) Given that component 4 works, what is the probability that the system does not
work? [7 marks]

(c) Given the system does not work, what is the probability that component C also
does not work? [7 marks]

Question 4 [20 marks]

A fair die is thrown five times. Let 4, B and C be events defined as

A = {an even number in the first throw},

B = {anumber greater than ‘4’ in the second throw},
C = {at least one ‘6’}.

(a) Find P(4 and C). [5 marks]

(b) Find P(4 or Bor C). [10 marks]

(¢) Find P[(4 or B)C]. [5 marks]

Question 5 [20 marks]

A certain type of fish is susceptible to three types of diseases. A large sample was
inspected with the following observations. The proportion of disease-free fish was 91%,
and the proportions of fish having disease I, II and III were 7%, 5% and 4%,
respectively. The proportion of fish having disease I and II was 4%, the proportion of
fish having disease I and III was 3%, and the proportion of fish having disease II and I1I
was 2%.

(a) What was the proportion of fish having all three types of diseases? [8 marks]

(b) Let X denote the number of diseases of a randomly chosen fish. Find the
probability distribution, mean, and standard deviation of X. [12 marks]

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 Question 5 [12+20=32 marks]
A certain type of fish is susceptible to three types of diseases. A large sample was inspected with
the following observations. The proportion of discase-free fish was 91%, and the proporti
ons
of fish having disease I, IT and III were 7%, 5% and 4%, respectively. The proportion of fish
having disease I and IT was 4%, the proportion of fish having disease I and ITT was 3%, and
the
proportion of fish having disease II and IIT was 2%.
(a) What was the proportion of fish having all three types ol diseases?

(b) Let X denote the number of diseases of a randomly chosen fish. Find the distribution,
mean, and standard deviation of X.

Fvw(of Hong o oliseage © 0. 3) A T« 0.0% , ooy , 7 : 0.0%

Tod I: 00y | T oud 2&: 008 T o-d T 002

a) (f‘t acdT ad YE) T p [ $0u~c J-‘sc-qg)\ F(.Z‘) - f(:tc)-r(y__rr)

+ ((r..Jur) “plzed T) + p(T oAI)

= 0085-0.072-005-0.04 « 9,04 +0.03 + 0.02

= 0.02

]o) X = no. aq[ Arsen sey [ PIXs )

0.3)
|- P(x=0)~ Plx=2)~plx=3) < 0.04
2 | P(Tod T) 4 PUT oL W) s p(I ok 1)~ 3 p(X=3):003
0.92

PIX)= 0-0.8) «1- 004 +2:0.03+3-0.02 =1t

2 (X)) 0-08] +[.0.04+ 4 P.03 +%-0.0L — O.I6
= 0.3/4y
6 (X)) = Joany - 05407