Chapter 5
Probability
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Learning Objectives
Upon completion of this chapter, you will be able to:
▪ Understand the concept of probability
▪ Understand counting rules, combinations, and
permutations
▪ Understand the three general techniques of assigning
probability
▪ Understand general and special rules of addition and
multiplication
▪ Understand the concept of conditional probability and
Bayes’ theorem
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Definition of Probability
Probability is the likelihood or chance that a particular
event will occur. The theory of probability provides a
quantitative measure of uncertainty or likelihood of
occurrence of different events, resulting from a random
experiment, in terms of quantitative measures ranging from
0 to 1. This means that the probability of a certain event is
1 and the probability of an impossible event is 0.
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Figure 5.1: Probability as a numerical measure of the
likelihood of the occurrence of an event
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Basic Concepts
▪ An experiment is a process which produces outcomes.
▪ An event is the outcome of an experiment. If an event
has a single possible outcome, it is called a simple (or
elementary) event. A subset of outcomes corresponding
to a specific event is called an event space.
▪ The joint occurrence of two or more simple events is
known as a compound event.
▪ Two events are said to be independent events if the
occurrence or non-occurrence of one is not affected by
the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
▪ Symbolically, if X and Y are two independent events, then
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Basic Concepts
▪ Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if
the occurrence of one implies that the other cannot occur.
▪ A list of events can be termed as collective exhaustive
when the outcome of an experiment consists of all possible
events that can occur in the experiment.
▪ Two or more events are said to be equally likely if each
has an equal chance of occurrence.
▪ The complement of an event is the set of all the
outcomes in a sample space that are not included in the
event.
▪ The sample space denoted by S is the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
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Figure 5.4 : Two mutually exclusive events X and Y
Figure 5.5 : The complement of event A
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Figure 5.6: Possible outcomes for rolling a pair of dice
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Counting Rules, Combinations, and Permutations
▪ Multi-step Experiment
In an experiment involving the tossing of six coins, the total
possible outcomes are:
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Counting Rules for Combinations
▪ The second counting method uses the concept of
combinations. Sampling of n items from a population of
size N (usually larger) without replacement provides:
▪ A third rule of counting known as the counting rule for
permutations helps in computing the possible number of
experimental outcomes when n items are to be selected
from a set of N items in a particular order. The same n
items selected in a different order would be considered a
different experimental outcome. The number of
permutations of N items taken n at a time is given by:
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Probability Assigning Techniques
There are three general techniques of assigning probability.
These are
(1) Classical technique
(2) Relative frequency technique and (3) Subjective
approach.
(1) Classical Technique
This is a mathematical approach of assigning probability. If
for an experiment there are N exhaustive, mutually
exclusive, and equally likely cases, and out of these, ne are
favourable to the occurrence of an event E, then as per the
classical approach of probability, the probability of
occurrence of the event E is given by:
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For example, if a company employs a total of 400 workers.
Out of these, 150 workers are skilled and 250 workers are
unskilled. The probability of randomly selecting a skilled
worker is
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Classical Technique (Contd.)
Probability of not selecting a skilled worker from a total
of 400 workers is:
The probability of an event happening or not happening is
always equal to 1. This also indicates that the probability of
the occurrence of any event always lies in between 0 and
1, that is, 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1. Probability of a certain event is
always equal to 1 and probability of an impossible event is
equal to 0.
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Relative Frequency Technique
This method uses the relative frequencies of past
occurrences as the basis of computing present probability.
In this method, assigning probability is based on cumulated
relative frequencies. In other words, past data is used to
predict future possibility.
In this method, probability is defined as the proportion of
times an event occurs in a large number of trials. For an
event E:
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Example 5.3: A company retains a team of 10 quality control
inspectors for maintaining good quality of raw material. This team
checks the quality of the raw material at regular intervals. As per the
past data of the company, the quality control team has rejected 10
batches out of 50. What is the probability that this team is going to
reject the new batch of raw material from the supplier?
From the relative frequency approach, the probability of rejecting
the next batch is
Hence, the required probability of rejecting the next batch is
10/50 = 0.2. So, the probability of rejecting a new batch is 0.2.
Suppose this batch is rejected, then the probability of rejecting the
next batch (52nd) is 11/51 = 0.21.
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Subjective Approach
The subjective approach is based on the intuition of an
individual. Though this is not a scientific approach, it is
based on the accumulation of knowledge, understanding,
or experience of an individual.
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Types of Probability
Figure 5.8 : Marginal, union, joint, and conditional probabilities
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Definitions (Types of Probability)
A marginal or unconditional probability is the simple
probability of the occurrence of an event. Marginal probability is
generally denoted by P(E), where E is some event. Hence,
marginal probability is given by:
Example 5.4 : In a die rolling experiment, calculate the
probability of getting three on the upper face of the die.
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Union Probability and Joint Probability
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General Rule of Addition
Example 5.7: From a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, a card is
drawn at random. Find the probability that it is an ace or a
heart.
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Probability Matrices
Probability matrix is a two-dimensional table with one variable
on each side of the table. This table is also referred to as the
contingency table.
Example 5.10: A company is interested in understanding the consumer
behaviour of the capital of the newly formed state Chhattisgarh, that is,
Raipur. For this purpose, the company has selected a sample of 300
consumers and asked a simple question, “Do you enjoy shopping?” Out
of 300 respondents, 200 were males and 100 were females. Out of 200
males, 120 responded “Yes,” and out of 100 females, 70 responded
“Yes.” A respondent is selected randomly. Construct a probability matrix
and ascertain the probability that:
1. The respondent is a male
2. Enjoys shopping
3. Is a female and enjoys shopping
4. Is a male and does not enjoy shopping
5. Is a female or enjoys shopping
6. Is a male or does not enjoy shopping
7. Is a male or female.
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Solution (Ex 5.10)
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Special Rule of Addition for Mutually Exclusive
Events
▪ If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability of
the union of the two events is the marginal probability of the
first event plus marginal probability of the second event.
▪ The additive rule can be generalized to any number of
events, provided the events are mutually exclusive. So, the
additive rule for n mutually exclusive events is
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Example 5.11: In the experiment of a fair die rolled twice, find the
probability of getting a sum of 9 or a sum of 10.
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General Rule of Multiplication
General rule of multiplication is given as
Example 5.12: A company accepted a lot of 70 picture tubes of a
colour television. Out of the 70 picture tubes, 10 are defective.
1. If two picture tubes are drawn at random, one at a time without
replacement, what is the probability that both the picture tubes are
defective?
2. If two picture tubes are drawn at random, one at a time with
replacement, what is the probability that both the picture tubes are
defective?
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Solution (Example 5.12)
▪ 1. If two picture tubes are drawn at random, one at a time
without replacement, then the required probability will
be
▪ 2. If two picture tubes are drawn at random, one at a
time with replacement, then the required probability
will be
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Special Rule of Multiplication
Example 5.14: A fair coin is tossed. Find the probability of
getting two heads on two successive tosses and also find
the probability of getting three heads on three successive
tosses.
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Solution (Example 5.14)
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Conditional Probability
Example 5.15: Two coins are tossed. What is the probability of
getting two heads, given that at least one coin shows a head?
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Independent Events
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Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ theorem allows revision of the original
probability with new information. We begin the analysis
with special or prior probability estimates for a specific
event of interest. Then, from any source like a sample or
product test, we get additional information. Given this new
information, we update the prior probability values by
calculating the revised probabilities, referred to as
posterior probabilities. Bayes’ theorem provides a
platform for calculating these probabilities.
Figure 5.10: Steps in computing posterior probabilities for Bayes’ theorem
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Two Supplier Example
A manufacturing firm which receives shipment of parts from
two different suppliers. The historical quality levels of these
two suppliers are as shown in Table 5.3.
After the parts are received, they are used in a particular
machine. The machine breaks down owing to a defective part.
Given the information that the part is a defective one, what is
the probability that it came from the first supplier or from the
second supplier?
The Bayes theorem can be applied to solve this problem.
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Figure 5.11 : Probability tree for two supplier example
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Two Supplier Example
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Table 5.4: Summary of Bayes’ theorem calculations for the
two-supplier example
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