Definition of Probability:

• Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring.

• It's measured on a scale from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).

Basic Concepts:

• Experiment: A process that produces outcomes

• Event: The outcome of an experiment

• Independent events: Occurrence of one doesn't affect the other

• Mutually exclusive events: Occurrence of one precludes the other

• Sample space: Set of all possible outcomes

Counting Rules:

• Multi-step experiments

• Combinations: Selecting items without replacement or order

• Permutations: Selecting items with order considered

Probability Assigning Techniques:

• Classical: Based on equally likely outcomes

• Relative frequency: Based on past occurrences

• Subjective: Based on intuition or experience

Types of Probability:

• Marginal: Probability of a single event

• Union: Probability of either event occurring

• Joint: Probability of two events occurring together

• Conditional: Probability of an event given another has occurred

Probability Rules:

• General Rule of Addition: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

• Special Rule of Addition (for mutually exclusive events): P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

• General Rule of Multiplication: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)

• Special Rule of Multiplication (for independent events): P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

Conditional Probability:

• Probability of an event given that another has occurred

• Formula: P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

Bayes' Theorem:
 • Used to update probabilities based on new information

• Involves prior probabilities, likelihood, and posterior probabilities

Probability Matrices:

• Two-dimensional tables showing probabilities of combined events

Comprehensive Overview of Probability Distributions and Sampling

1. Introduction to Sampling

Sampling is a statistical method used to gather information about a population by examining only a
part of it (the sample). This is often more practical and cost-effective than examining every item in
the population (a census).

• Population: The entire group being studied.

• Sample: A subset of the population.

• Statistic: A characteristic of a sample.

• Parameter: A characteristic of a population.

Sample statistics are used to estimate population parameters.

2. Types of Sampling

2.1 Random (Probabilistic) Sampling

In random sampling, every item in the population has a chance of being selected. This method
reduces bias and allows for statistical inference.

2.1.1 Simple Random Sampling

• Each possible sample has an equal probability of being selected.

• Each item in the population has an equal chance of inclusion.

• Often uses random number generators or tables.

2.1.2 Systematic Sampling

• Elements are selected at uniform intervals (time, order, or space).

• Each element has an equal chance of selection, but not each sample.

• Advantages: May be faster and less costly.

• Disadvantages: May be inappropriate if elements have a sequential pattern.

2.1.3 Stratified Sampling

• Population is divided into homogeneous groups (strata).

• Elements are then randomly selected from each stratum.

• Useful when the population is already divided into groups of different sizes.

• Advantage: Can more accurately reflect population characteristics.

• Population is divided into clusters.

• A random sample of clusters is selected.

• All items in selected clusters are included in the sample.

• Differs from stratified sampling in that there's variation within clusters but similarity between
clusters.

2.2 Non-Random (Judgment) Sampling

Non-random sampling doesn't provide known chances of selection and involves some subjectivity.

2.2.1 Convenience Sampling

• Based on the researcher's convenience.

• Least effective method, but easy to implement.

2.2.2 Judgment Sampling

• Based on the researcher's judgment to draw a representative sample.

• Better than convenience sampling, but limited by personal bias.

2.2.3 Quota Sampling

• Quotas are set based on certain parameters to make the sample representative.

• One of the most commonly used non-random methods.

2.2.4 Shopping Mall Intercept Sampling

• Samples are drawn in marketplaces, shopping malls, fairs, etc.

• Popular due to convenience and representativeness.

2.2.5 Snowball Sampling

• Initial respondents are selected randomly, then additional respondents are referred by them.

• Useful for studying rare populations.

3. Design of Experiment

Proper planning of experiments is crucial for meaningful results. Phases include:

1. Defining objectives

2. Deciding what to measure

3. Determining sample size

4. Conducting the experiment

5. Analyzing the data

4. Sampling Distributions
A sampling distribution is the probability distribution of all possible values of a sample statistic.

• Standard Error: The standard deviation of a sampling distribution.

4.1 Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean

• For normal populations: Follows normal distribution with mean μ and standard error σ/√n.

• For non-normal populations: Central Limit Theorem applies as sample size increases.

4.2 Central Limit Theorem

Describes the relationship between the shape of the population distribution and the sampling
distribution of the sample statistic. It allows for inferences about population parameters without
knowing the population's distribution shape.

4.3 Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion

For large samples, follows normal distribution with mean p and standard error √(pq/n).

5. Relationship Between Sample Size and Standard Error

• Standard error decreases as sample size increases, improving precision.

• Decision-makers should assess the cost-benefit of larger samples.

• Finite Population Multiplier: Used when sampling without replacement from a finite
population.

6. Discrete vs Continuous Probability Distributions

• Discrete Random Variable: Takes on a finite or countably infinite number of values.

• Continuous Random Variable: Can take any value within an interval.

7. Discrete Probability Distributions

7.1 Mean (Expected Value)

For a discrete distribution: E(X) = Σ [x * P(x)]

7.2 Variance

Var(X) = Σ [(x - μ)² * P(x)] = E(X²) - [E(X)]²

8. Binomial Distribution

Describes discrete data from a Bernoulli process (e.g., coin tossing).

8.1 Assumptions

1. Fixed number of identical trials

2. Two possible outcomes per trial (success/failure)

3. Independent trials

4. Constant probability of success (p) and failure (q = 1-p)

8.2 Formula
P(X = k) = C(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)

Where:

• n = number of trials

• k = number of successes

• p = probability of success on each trial

8.3 Mean and Variance

• Mean: μ = np

• Variance: σ² = np(1-p)

9. Poisson Distribution

Describes the number of discrete occurrences over an interval.

9.1 Properties

1. Independent occurrences

2. Equal probability for equal intervals

3. Discrete occurrences over a specific interval

4. Constant expected number of occurrences

5. Occurrences range from zero to infinity

9.2 Formula

P(X = k) = (e^-λ * λ^k) / k!

Where:

• λ = long-run average rate of occurrence

• k = number of occurrences

• e = base of natural logarithm

9.3 Poisson as Approximation of Binomial

Used when n ≥ 20 and p ≤ 0.05 in binomial problems.

10. Hypergeometric Distribution

Related to binomial distribution but with non-independent trials and changing probability of success.

10.1 Characteristics

1. Two possible outcomes per trial

2. Discrete distribution

3. Sampling without replacement

4. Known, finite population size (N)

10.2 Formula

P(X = k) = [C(r,k) * C(N-r, n-k)] / C(N,n)

Where:

• N = population size

• n = sample size

• r = number of successes in population

• k = number of successes in sample

This comprehensive overview covers the main topics from both documents, providing a detailed
explanation of sampling methods and probability distributions.