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    Historical Unemployment Recent Unemployment: Productivity and Costs

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    andrewblogger
    The document contains charts and graphs related to various US employment indicators such as the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, productivity and labor costs. The unemployment rate declined gradually from over 10% in late 2009 to around 8.5% currently. Non-farm payrolls increased steadily over the past year but growth has slowed recently. Average hourly earnings have risen about 2% year-over-year while productivity growth has exceeded increases in labor costs. The labor force participation rate has continued falling, reflecting long-term demographic trends.

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    Historical Unemployment Recent Unemployment: Productivity and Costs

    Uploaded by

    andrewblogger
    287 views4 pages
    The document contains charts and graphs related to various US employment indicators such as the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, productivity and labor costs. The unemployment rate declined gradually from over 10% in late 2009 to around 8.5% currently. Non-farm payrolls increased steadily over the past year but growth has slowed recently. Average hourly earnings have risen about 2% year-over-year while productivity growth has exceeded increases in labor costs. The labor force participation rate has continued falling, reflecting long-term demographic trends.

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    Employment

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    The document contains charts and graphs related to various US employment indicators such as the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, productivity and labor costs. The unemployment rate declined gradually from over 10% in late 2009 to around 8.5% currently. Non-farm payrolls increased steadily over the past year but growth has slowed recently. Average hourly earnings have risen about 2% year-over-year while productivity growth has exceeded increases in labor costs. The labor force participation rate has continued falling, reflecting long-term demographic trends.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    287 views4 pages

    Historical Unemployment Recent Unemployment: Productivity and Costs

    Uploaded by

    andrewblogger
    The document contains charts and graphs related to various US employment indicators such as the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, productivity and labor costs. The unemployment rate declined gradually from over 10% in late 2009 to around 8.5% currently. Non-farm payrolls increased steadily over the past year but growth has slowed recently. Average hourly earnings have risen about 2% year-over-year while productivity growth has exceeded increases in labor costs. The labor force participation rate has continued falling, reflecting long-term demographic trends.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    Historical Unemployment

    Recent Unemployment

    Unemployment Rate (%)

    Unemployment Rate (%)

    11%

    12

    10%

    10

    8.6%

    9%
    8
    8%

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Average Hourly Work Week

    Sep-11

    May-11

    Non-Farm Payrolls (000's)

    34.6
    34.4
    34.2
    34
    33.8
    33.6
    33.4
    33.2

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Unit Labor Costs QoQ%

    Productivity and Costs

    Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY%)


    Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM%)

    0.7%

    4.0%

    0.6%

    3.5%

    Non-Farm Productivity QoQ%


    4 per. Mov. Avg. (Unit Labor Costs QoQ%)

    10%
    8%

    6%

    0.5%

    3.0%

    0.3%

    2.5%

    0.2%

    2.0%

    0.1%

    1.5%

    4%
    2%

    YoY %

    0.4%

    0%

    -2%

    0.0%

    -4%

    1.0%

    -0.1%
    -0.2%

    0.5%

    -0.3%

    0.0%

    -6%
    -8%
    Jun-11

    Apr-11

    Feb-11

    Dec-10

    Oct-10

    Aug-10

    Jun-10

    Apr-10

    Feb-10

    Dec-09

    Oct-09

    Aug-09

    Jun-09

    Apr-09

    Feb-09

    Dec-08

    Oct-08

    Aug-08

    Dec-11

    Oct-11

    Aug-11

    Jun-11

    Apr-11

    Feb-11

    Dec-10

    Oct-10

    Aug-10

    Jun-10

    Apr-10

    Feb-10

    Dec-09

    Oct-09

    Aug-09

    -10%
    Jun-08

    MoM %

    Jan-11

    34.8

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    1/8/2012

    Sep-10

    Avg. Weekly Hours

    Nov-11

    Jun-11

    Jan-11

    Aug-10

    Mar-10

    Oct-09

    May-09

    Dec-08

    Jul-08

    Feb-08

    Sep-07

    Apr-07

    Nov-06

    Jun-06

    Jan-06

    Aug-05

    Mar-05

    Oct-04

    May-04

    Dec-03

    Jul-03

    500
    400
    300
    200
    100
    0
    -100
    -200
    -300
    -400
    -500
    -600
    -700
    -800

    Average Hourly Earnings

    May-10

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Non-Farm MoM (000's)


    Manufacturing MoM (000's)
    Private MoM (000's)

    Change in Payrolls

    Jan-10

    Sep-09

    May-09

    Jan-09

    Sep-08

    May-06

    May-08

    4%
    Jan-08

    Sep-07

    5%
    May-07

    Sep-06

    6%

    Jan-06

    Jan-07

    7%

    2008

    1996

    1984

    1972

    1960

    1948

    Employment Charts

    Unemployment Claims

    Initial Claims

    Nov-11

    Sep-11

    Jul-11

    May-11

    Mar-11

    Jan-11

    Nov-10

    Sep-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    200
    Mar-10

    2000
    Jan-10

    250
    Nov-09

    2500
    Sep-09

    300

    Jul-09

    3000

    BLS - Non-Farm Payrolls (L)


    ADP Payrolls (R)

    500
    400

    200
    100
    0
    -100
    Sep-11

    Jul-11

    May-11

    Mar-11

    May-10

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Nov-11

    -200

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Employment / Population Ratio

    Non-Farm Payroll Diffusion

    Non-Farm Diffusion

    Employment / Population Ratio (%)

    80

    66

    70
    64

    60

    62

    50
    40

    60

    30
    58

    20

    56

    10
    2011

    2011

    2010

    2010

    2009

    2009

    2009

    2008

    2008

    2007

    2007

    2007

    2006

    2006

    2005

    2005

    2004

    2004

    2004

    2003

    2003

    2002

    2002

    2002

    2001

    2001

    2000

    1999

    2011

    2010

    2010

    2009

    2009

    2009

    2008

    2008

    2007

    2007

    2007

    2006

    2006

    2005

    2005

    2004

    2004

    2004

    2003

    2003

    2002

    2002

    2002

    2001

    2001

    2000

    2000

    1999

    2011

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Job Hires YoY%


    1/8/2012

    2000

    54

    Employment Charts

    Thousands

    300

    Mar-10

    Oct-11

    Jul-11

    Apr-11

    Jan-11

    Oct-10

    Jul-10

    Apr-10

    Jan-10

    Oct-09

    Jul-09

    Apr-09

    Jan-09

    Oct-08

    -1000

    Jul-08

    350

    Jan-11

    -800

    Apr-08

    3500

    Nov-10

    -600

    Jan-08

    400

    Sep-10

    -400

    Oct-07

    4000

    Jul-10

    -200

    Jul-07

    450

    Mar-08

    Apr-07

    4500

    350
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    -50
    -100
    -150

    200

    Jan-07

    500

    Change in Payrolls Compared

    December
    400

    Oct-06

    5000

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    ADP Payrolls

    ADP's Change in Private Payrolls

    Jul-06

    550

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    4 per. Mov. Avg. (Initial Claims (Thousands))

    Apr-06

    5500

    Dec-11

    Nov-11

    Oct-11

    Sep-11

    Aug-11

    Jul-11

    Jun-11

    May-11

    Apr-11

    Mar-11

    Feb-11

    Jan-11

    360

    600

    May-09

    380

    6000

    Mar-09

    400

    650

    Jan-09

    420

    6500

    Nov-08

    440

    700

    Sep-08

    Continuing Claims

    460

    Continuing Claims (Thousands)

    7000

    Jul-08

    480

    May-08

    Weekly Unemployment Claims

    Initial Claims (Thousands)

    Job Hires YoY%


    Job Separations YoY%
    Job Openings YoY%

    JOLTS Job Reports

    Corporate Announced Layoffs


    3.5%

    250

    3.3%

    200

    3.1%
    2.9%

    150

    2.7%

    100

    2.5%
    2.3%

    50

    2.1%

    1.9%

    30.60%

    1.7%

    Employment Cost Index

    Dec-11

    Nov-11

    Oct-11

    Sep-11

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Extended Benefits
    Emergency Benefits
    Continuing Claims

    Unemployment Claims

    ECI YoY%
    4.5
    4

    12
    10

    3.5
    3

    2.5

    2
    1.5

    1
    2

    0.5

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Labor Force Participation Rate

    Oct-11

    Jul-11

    Apr-11

    Jan-11

    Oct-10

    Jul-10

    Apr-10

    Jan-10

    Oct-09

    Jul-09

    Apr-09

    Jan-09

    Jul-08

    Oct-08

    2011

    2011

    2010

    2010

    2010

    2009

    2009

    2009

    2008

    2008

    2008

    2007

    2007

    2007

    2006

    2006

    2006

    2005

    2005

    2005

    2004

    2004

    2004

    2003

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Labor Force Participation Rate

    Labor Force Participation

    Labor Force Participation

    70%

    68.0%

    68%

    67.0%

    66%

    64%

    66.0%

    62%

    65.0%

    60%
    58%

    64.0%

    56%

    63.0%

    54%

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    1/8/2012

    Sep-11

    Feb-11

    Jul-10

    Dec-09

    May-09

    Oct-08

    Mar-08

    Aug-07

    Jan-07

    Jun-06

    2008

    Nov-05

    2002

    Apr-05

    1996

    Sep-04

    1990

    Feb-04

    1984

    Jul-03

    1978

    Dec-02

    1972

    May-02

    1966

    Oct-01

    1960

    Mar-01

    1954

    Aug-00

    1948

    62.0%

    Jan-00

    52%

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Employment Charts

    Millions

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Aug-11

    Jul-11

    Jun-11

    May-11

    Apr-11

    Mar-11

    Feb-11

    Jan-11

    Dec-10

    Nov-10

    Oct-10

    Sep-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    -100

    Nov-11

    Sep-11

    Jul-11

    May-11

    Mar-11

    Jan-11

    Nov-10

    Sep-10

    Jul-10

    May-10

    Mar-10

    Jan-10

    Nov-09

    Sep-09

    Jul-09

    May-09

    Mar-09

    Jan-09

    Nov-08

    Sep-08

    Jul-08

    1.5%

    -50

    BLS Private MoM (000's)


    ADP Payrolls MoM (000's)

    Comparison of Private Payrolls

    Under-Employment

    280

    U-6 Underemployment Rate (%)

    18%

    180
    16%

    80
    -20

    14%

    -120

    12%

    -220

    10%

    -320
    -420

    8%

    -520

    6%

    -620
    -720

    4%

    Dec-11

    Oct-11

    Aug-11

    Jun-11

    Apr-11

    Feb-11

    Dec-10

    Oct-10

    Aug-10

    Jun-10

    Apr-10

    Feb-10

    Dec-09

    Oct-09

    Aug-09

    Jun-09

    Apr-09

    Feb-09

    Dec-08

    -820

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    Challenger Job Hires

    Announced Hiring and Firing

    Challenger Job Cuts


    250,000
    200,000
    150,000
    100,000
    50,000

    Nov-11

    Sep-11

    Jul-11

    May-11

    Mar-11

    Jan-11

    Nov-10

    Sep-10

    Jul-10

    May-10

    Mar-10

    Jan-10

    Nov-09

    Sep-09

    Jul-09

    May-09

    Mar-09

    Jan-09

    Nov-08

    Sep-08

    Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

    1/8/2012

    Employment Charts

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