Spatial Analysis,

Modelling and Planning

Edited by Jorge Rocha and José António Tenedório
SPATIAL ANALYSIS,
MODELLING AND
PLANNING

Edited by Jorge Rocha

and José António Tenedório
Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74452
Edited by Jorge Rocha and José António Tenedório

Contributors
Ana Cristina Gonçalves, Adélia Sousa, Lenwood Hall, Ronald Anderson, Khalid Al-Ahmadi, Andreas Rienow, Frank
Thonfeld, Nora Schneevoigt, Diego Montenegro, Ana Da Cunha, Ingrid Machado, Lili Duraes, Stefan Vilges De Oliveira,
Marcel Pedroso, Gilberto Gazêta, Reginaldo Brazil, Brooks C Pearson, Brian Ways, Valentina Svalova, Andreas Koch,
Hélder Lopes, Paula Remoaldo, Vítor Ribeiro, Toshiaki Ichinose, Norman Schofield, Fred Bidandi, John James Williams,
Jorge Rocha, José António Tenedório

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 Meet the editors

Jorge Rocha is a geographer and was born in Lisbon in

1970. He has an MSc in Geographic Information Sys-
tems (2003) and in Spatial Planning (2013) and a PhD in
Geographic Information Science (2012). He is currently
an Assistant Professor at the Institute of Geography and
Spatial Planning and a member of the Modelling, Urban
and Regional Planning, and Environmental Hazard and
Risk Assessment and Management research groups at the Centre of Geo-
graphical Studies, all at the University of Lisbon. His fields of expertise are
Geosimulation and Geocomputation involving Artificial Neural Networks,
Graphs Theory, Cellular Automata, and Multi-agent Systems. Jorge’s
works are quite diverse, focusing mainly on, but not exclusively, in Urban
Morphology, Remote Sensing, Epidemiology, Health Geography, Smart
Cities and Big Data (Geomarketing and Tourism).

José António Tenedório is a geographer and an associate

professor at the Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, NOVA
FCSH, Lisbon, Portugal. He is also a Visiting Professor
at Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Barcelona Tech,
Barcelona School of Architecture (ETSAB), Spain. He
graduated with a degree in Geography and Regional
Planning. He attended the Sorbonne University, Faculty
of Sciences (UPMC), where he undertook postgraduate studies (DESS) in
Remote Sensing. At the University of Paris-Est Créteil (UPEC), he obtained
his PhD in Urbanism. His main scientific areas of research are Urban
Remote Sensing, Spatial Analysis, and Geographical Modeling. He has
published more than one hundred papers (book chapters, papers in pe-
riodicals with scientific refereeing, and papers in conference proceedings
with scientific refereeing). He was won the first prize in the SANTANDER
Award for the Internationalization of the NOVA FCSH Scientific Produc-
tion (2013 and 2015 (ex aequo)).
Contents

Preface VII

Section 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Introductory Chapter: Spatial Analysis, Modelling, and

Planning 3
José António Tenedório and Jorge Rocha

Section 2 Data Analytics and Spatial Analysis 17

Chapter 2 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding

of Rickettsiosis Integrating Multi-Criteria Analysis Techniques
and Spatial Statistics 19
Diego Montenegro, Ana Paula da Cunha, Ingrid Machado, Liliane
Duraes, Stefan Vilges de Oliveira, Marcel Pedroso, Gilberto S.
Gazêta and Reginaldo P. Brazil

Chapter 3 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water

Concentrations in California Waterbodies from
2001 to 2017 39
Lenwood W. Hall and Ronald D. Anderson

Chapter 4 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very

High Resolution Satellite Images 61
Ana Cristina Gonçalves and Adélia M. O. Sousa

Chapter 5 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore,

Maryland 79
Brian Ways and Brooks C. Pearson
VI Contents

Chapter 6 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New

Tourist Destination: Analysis of Clusters in a GIS
Environment 95
Hélder Tiago da Silva Lopes, Paula Cristina Almeida Cadima
Remoaldo and Vitor Ribeiro

Section 3 Spatial and Spatiotemporal Modelling 113

Chapter 7 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy

Sets and GIS 115
Khalid Al-Ahmadi

Chapter 8 Quantification and Prediction of Land Consumption and Its

Climate Effects in the Rhineland Metropolitan Area Based on
Multispectral Satellite Data and Land-Use Modelling
1975–2030 151
Andreas Rienow, Nora Jennifer Schneevoigt and Frank Thonfeld

Chapter 9 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental

Engineering 169
Toshiaki Ichinose

Chapter 10 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-

Based Social-Spatial Network Modelling Perspective 187
Andreas Koch

Section 4 Geographic Knowledge and Spatial Planning 209

Chapter 11 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban

Planning: Perspectives on Kampala, Uganda 211
John J. Williams and Fred Bidandi

Chapter 12 Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning 229

Valentina Svalova

Chapter 13 Political Economy and the Work of Kenneth Arrow 243

Norman Schofield
Preface

The academic community, companies, and local and central administration all use digital
data extensively. New and powerful technology solutions, including geographic informa‐
tion systems (GIS), have been evolving to enhance spatial data analysis. Spatial analysis is a
type of analysis based on geographic exploratory techniques (data mining) and confirmato‐
ry facts and phenomena with space expression, contributing to policy issues and spatial
planning. Currently, spatial analysis has acquired more importance than ever, due to the
large volumes of spatial data (big data) available from different sources, such as social net‐
works and mobile phones. Moreover, one now has the opportunity to establish relationships
and mathematical statistics in time and space (geosimulation).
Strictly speaking, spatial analysis can be seen as a way of analyzing spatial data, that is,
turning data into information. In broad terms, it consists of enlightening and describing the
processes and structures of spatial phenomena. It is the heart of GIS because it comprises the
changes, uses, and procedures that can be applied to geographic data, adding value, expos‐
ing patterns and outliers that are not instantaneously recognizable, and creating new infor‐
mation that provides new insights and supports decisions. It embraces a diversity of data
processing functions designed for deriving spatial relationships, patterns, and trends that
are implicit in the data. The results could be used immediately on spatial problem solving
and decision-making or as input for posterior spatial analysis and modeling. Eventually,
spatial analysis is used for decision-making, to assist spatial planning and to support the
creation of management policies.
Spatial modeling is an analytical procedure usually used in connection with a GIS in order
to define the processes and properties of spatial features: it is a crucial technique of spatial
analysis. Using models, within a GIS environment, for analyzing spatial data, one can accu‐
rately analyze the output data for an enhanced understanding by nonspecialists. Its spatial
nature aids researchers in understanding the data and explaining the conclusions that are
tough to express based on numeric and/or text data alone. The final goal of spatial modeling
is to be able to simulate geographic phenomena in order to facilitate problem solving and/or
planning. The information handling is done in numerous steps, each one of them represent‐
ing a phase in a complex analysis process.
This book aims to explain both Geographic Information Science and Spatial Science using a
group of twelve unique research contributions that reflect some of the state-of-the-art ad‐
vances in spatial analysis and location modeling. The incorporated research goes from theo‐
retical to applied work, passing through some methodological insights. It is subdivided into
three main parts: the first focuses on the research of Knowledge Discovery, Geographic Data
Mining, Multi-Scale Representation and Spatial Analysis, the second studies aspects of, Spa‐
VIII Preface

tial Modelling, System Dynamics and Geosimulation, and the third present’s contributions
in the field of Spatial Planning, Decision Making and the formulation of driving rules. This
book is suitable for those that are interested in Geography, Geographic Information Science
and Spatial Sciences.

Jorge Rocha
Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning
University of Lisbon
Lisbon, Portugal

José António Tenedório

Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA)
Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH)
Universidade NOVA de Lisboa
Lisbon, Portugal
 Section 1

Introduction
 Chapter 1

Introductory Chapter: Spatial Analysis, Modelling, and

Planning

José António Tenedório and Jorge Rocha

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.81049

1. Introduction

It can be difficult to separate spatial analysis from other fields of interest such as geography,
location analysis, geographic information science, etc. Yet, its beginnings are to some extent
easy to identify. It started with both the “spatial thinking” paradigm and the geography
quantitative revolution in the 1950s–1960s [1, 2].
The first promoters of this paradigm shift (Brian Berry, Waldo Tobler, Art Getis, etc.) had a
geography background and, as such, conducted their work in a multidisciplinary crossroad
approach, allowing crossing ideas and spatial analysis approaches from substantially differ­
ent disciplines (e.g., statistics and computer science). One of the most marking add-ins to
spatial analysis was Peter Haggett’s [3] work, which remains as a reference for spatial analysis
researchers and scholars.
Spatial analysis stands over the principle that there is some spatial component—absolute,
relative, or both—in data. Indeed, in the beginning of the twentieth century, 80% of all data
have already some kind of spatial explanation [4]. Spatial analysis comprehends numerous
representational models of reality based on the spatial properties of the data features [5].
The importance gathered by spatial analysis within geography, its achievement in getting
into the analytical framework of several sciences (e.g., natural, social, and physical), and its
prominence as a pillar of geographic information science [6] reflects that geographic space
does matter and greatly influences the way natural, social, and physical processes evolve.
Spatial patterns and processes have idiosyncratic properties [7] that establish the core of the
spatial analysis paradigm. One is spatial dependence, which postulates that the spatially
located semantic information gives some insights about the existent information in nearby

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4 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

locations. This is known as spatial autocorrelation (i.e., a kind of statistical dependence rela­
tionship) and when it applies to univariate analysis is often understood as some kind of spatial
expansion process. Here it is impossible not to mention Tobler’s (1970) First Law of Geography,
stipulating that all things are related, but near things are more related than distant things [8].

Another basic principle of spatial analysis is known as spatial heterogeneity. Here univariate/
multivariate analysis is possibly not static throughout the geographic space, that is, anisot­
ropy. Thus, one may find local hot and cold spots [9], because the parameter calibration of
these models may vary athwart the study area, mirroring local variations of the global model
adjusted for the study area as an all [10].

In a narrow view, one can consider that spatial data is special [11]. Yet, a rigid interpretation
has often resulted in the postulate that the geographic space exists objectively and indepen­
dently of the social and natural processes that operate across the spatial extension and in the
conceptual and operational separation of spatial and semantic information in spatial models.
Most recently this idea has been considered dogmatic and detached from the authenticity of
the geographic space [12].

Geography has a history of a, sometimes crispy, relation between law-seeking (nomothetic)

and description-seeking (idiographic) knowledge [13]. Wisely, physical geographers get
away from these debates, but the nomothetic-idiographic tension keeps on in human geogra­
phy [13–15]. Possibly without surprise, geography has been censured for invalidated theories,
results that cannot be reproduced, and a division among practice and science [16].

Goodchild and Li [17] debate that old synthesis process, which is usually hidden from general
view and not easily related to the final result, will be more explicit and of serious importance
in the new big data era. Much of the geographic knowledge is made of formal theories, mod­
els, and equations that need to be processed in an informal manner. By the contrary, data
mining techniques require explicit representations, for example, rules and hierarchies, with
straight access deprived of processing [18].

One can state that multiple regression is undoubtedly the most widely used statistical
approach in geography. This model assumes that the model that is being used in the analysis
is the most correct [19]. Regrettably, the background theories are hardly ever satisfactorily
developed to include even the most pertinent variables. Also, often many researchers do not
even know what can be those missing variables. Hence, one often finds us testing a limited set
of variables, and the incapacity to include crucial mislaid variables can have severe implica­
tions in the model’s accuracy and thus in the conclusions drawn from the data [20].

In opposition to this traditional methodology, the data analytic approach trusts on multiple
models or a group of models. Instead of selecting the only best model and accepting that
it properly defines the data generation process, a group of models analyze all the possible
models to be resultant from the existing variables set and combine the results through a mul­
tiplicity of techniques, for example, bootstrap aggregation, bagging, boosting, support vector
machines, neural networks, genetic algorithms, and Bayesian model averaging [21, 22]. The
subsequent group of models constantly achieves better results than the designated best model
making higher accurate predictions across a wide group of domains and techniques [23, 24].
 Introductory Chapter: Spatial Analysis, Modelling, and Planning 5
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However, one should note that the new advanced data analytic techniques do not always
outperform the more traditional techniques [25].
This book is a gathering of original research contributions focusing on recent developments
in spatial analysis and modelling with implications to—spatial—planning. The book is orga­
nized in three parts that make use of spatial analytic approaches in a progressively integrated
and systemic way. It pretends to show how computational methods of spatial analysis and
modelling in a geographic information system (GIS) environment can be applied on systems
comprehension and allow a more informed spatial planning and, thus, theoretically improved
and more effective. The 12 topics comprise new types of data, analysis to distinguish the
importance of data in structures, functions and processes, and the use of approaches to back­
ing decision-making.

2. Spatial analysis

The emergence of critical geography (mainly physical), critical GIS, and radical approaches
to quantitative geography fostered the idea that geographers are well prepared to combine
quantitative methods with technical practice and critical analysis [26]. This proved to be not
quite true, but presently big data opens, specially through data mining, new possibilities for
spatial analysis research [27] and can extend the limits of quantitative approaches to a wide
array of problems usually addressed qualitatively [27, 28].

Despite that big data puts challenges to conventional concepts and practices of “hard” sciences,
where geographic information science is included [29, 30], the predominance of big data will
undoubtedly lead to a new quantitative turn in geography [31]. This is clearly a new paradigm
shift in geography research methodologies: a fourth—data-intensive—paradigm [32].

The alleged spatially integrated social sciences intend to influence GIS in order to analyze
the enormous amounts of available geocoded data [33]. Making sense of these data requires
both computationally based analysis methods and the ability to situate the results [34] and
brings together the risk of plunging traditional interpretative approaches [35]. The big data
era calls for new capacities of synthesis and synergies between qualitative and quantitative
approaches [36].

This paradox alliance between “poets and geeks” [37] can be a unique opportunity for geog­
raphy, stimulating wider efforts to create a bridge over the qualitative-quantitative crater [15]
and enabling smart combinations of quantitative and qualitative methodologies [38–40].

It is a similar case to the rebirth of social network theory and analysis where due to the grow­
ing availability of relational datasets covering human interactions and relationships, network
researchers manage to implement a new set of theoretical techniques and concepts [41].

Surveys are an example of this new paradigm. This methodology is at a crisis because of the
decline of response rates, sampling frames, and the narrow ability to record certain variables
that are the core of geographical analysis, for example, accurate geographical location [42].
6 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Gradually, self-reported surveys quantifying human motivations and behaviors are being
studied and compared with more “biological” data sources [43].

These limitations are still more pronounced if one considers two additional features: (i) the
majority of social survey data is cross-sectionally deprived of a longitudinal temporal facet
[44] and (ii) most social datasets are rough clusters of variables due to the limitations of what
can be asked in self-reported approaches.

Big data is leading to advances on both aspects, shifting from static snapshots to dynamic
recounting and from rough aggregations to high resolution, spatiotemporal, data. Here, what
matters the most is the likelihood of an increased emphasis of geography on processes rather
than structures. Again, network analysis works as a good example as the availability of lon­
gitudinal relational data generated the latest procedural and theoretic advances on network
dynamics [41].

Big data and its influence on geographic research have to be interpreted in the context of the
computational and algorithmic shift that is progressively influencing geography research
methods. To fully understand such shift, one can make the distinction between two mod­
elling approaches [45]: (i) the data modelling approach which assumes a stochastic data
model and (ii) the algorithmic modelling approach that considers the data as complex and
unknown. The first evaluates the parameter values from the data and then uses the model
for information and/or prediction, and in the second, there is a move from data models to
algorithms properties.

This is precisely the type of data created from immense complex systems simulations [46],
but a big percentage of it is provided by sensors and/or software that collect a wide range
of social and environmental patterns and processes [47, 48]. The geographic sources of this
spatial and temporal data embrace location-aware tools such as mobile phones, airborne (e.g.,
unmanned aerial vehicles) and satellite remote sensors, other sensors attached to infrastruc­
tures or vehicles, and georeferenced social media, among others [18, 49, 50].
There is in big data an enormous potential for innovative statistics [51]. Perhaps the upmost
importance is the necessity for a distinct mind-set because big data points toward a paradigm
shift, comprising an increased and improved use of modelling practices [52, 53]. Taking in
consideration the growing importance of location, it is fundamental for geographers to stop
just questioning “where?” but also start to enquire “why?” and “how?” [47].

Spatial analysis is defined as a way of looking at the geographical patterns of data and ana­
lyzes the relationships between the entities. In spatial analysis, the tendency in the direction
of local statistics, for example, geographically weighted regression [54] and (local) indica­
tors of spatial association [9], characterizes a concession where the main rules of nomothetic
geography can evolve in their own way across the geographic space. Goodchild [55] sees GIS
as a mix of both the nomothetic and idiographic characteristics, retained, respectively, on the
software and algorithms, and within the databases.

Hence, spatial analysis is some sort of modelling procedure that relates data features over a
geographic space (2D), across several spaces (3D), and along time dimension (4D).
 Introductory Chapter: Spatial Analysis, Modelling, and Planning 7
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3. Spatial modelling

What is a model? Well, in a broad sense, a model is a simplification of the reality: thus, all
models are wrong [56]. As one can understand, it is impractical or even functionally impos­
sible to collect cartographic information using an exact match between the representation
and the real objects; the elements generated would be a replica of the studied area and not a
model. The acquisition of information is therefore a numerical relationship between reality
and the cartographic representation and, therefore, requires a semantic transfer, inseparable
from the graphic and thematic generalization processes.

Lewis Carroll, the world-renowned writer for his book Alice in Wonderland, in his poetic tale
The Hunting of the Snark (An Agony in 8 Fits) [57], presents a very particular vision of the
relation: greater abstraction versus less information versus more extensive understanding,
by proposing an empty map (the Bellman’s Map, Figure 1). This blank sheet of paper, with
suggestions for navigation (North, South, etc.) and very mysterious, can represent the total
ignorance of humans in relation to their location but at the same time was a map that everyone
understood. The point is only the simplification/selection, since in the middle of the ocean,
this map can be quite accurate, if there is nothing else to consider than water itself.

Chorley and Haggett [58] mention that one of the approaches to model building can start
with the simplification of a system to its essential and then start building an increasingly
complex structure, by induction, a priori reasoning, and so on. Hardly there may be a
standard procedure for the construction of a system model never before modeled, but
the suggestion of ways to address the problem given by the authors can help in a first
approach to the problem. The original thought processes are difficult to understand and
explain, and the solutions of the problems auto-suggest in strange shapes and times. It is
not expected that two researchers working on the same subject address two models in the
same way. What is expected is that they start with a topic of interest and then try to model
it their own way.
All information is gathered at a certain range. This can be set, in a somewhat crude manner,
as the number of real-world metrics units that correspond to a same unit in the spatial model.
As one reduces the operating scale, the level of detail decreases according to the implicit
generalization. However, before doing it, this option should be weighted because, in practice,
it is not always possible to reduce and then enlarge a map, without such procedures will lead
to a loss of information.
According to a story collected by Jorge Luís Borges from “Travels of Praiseworthy Men” writ­
ten by Suárez Miranda (1658), and published in the chapter “Of Exactitude in Science” of the
book named A Universal History of Infamy [59], this would not have been the understanding
of a group of cartographers who, perhaps compelled by the thirst for the power of an empire,
intended to make a map of their country. More driven by the greatness than by the desire to
better understand that territory, these cartographers endeavored to design or, rather, copy
the shape of their territory in increasing scales—1:10,000, 1:1000, 1:100, and 1:10—until 1 day
they reached what they considered the perfect representation, that is, a map with a 1:1 scale.
8 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Inevitably, “less attentive to the Study of Cartography, succeeding generations came to judge
a map of such magnitude cumbersome, and, not without irreverence, they abandoned it to
the rigors of sun and rain” [59].

The Empire’s cartographers had copied the territory in an obsessive way as if it were a text.
It is possible that, except if the Empire comes to decline, the next step would have been to
represent each of the transformations of any details of that territory to the extent that it would
be impossible to distinguish the importance between the representation and the object repre­
sented. These cartographers though believed achieving an increasingly better representation,
through a perfect copy of the geometry of place, distorted, in inverse proportion, the ability of
these maps to explain the territory of the Empire. Today we can associate modernity, to which
Marc Augé refers [60], to the excess of information that submerges us with spatial data; but
at the same time reduces the distances due to information and communication technologies
(ICT).

Nowadays, spatial modelling and in a broad sense geography have shifted from a data-scarce
to a data-rich environment. Contrary to the generalized idea, the critical change is not about
the data volume, but relatively to the variety and the velocity at which georeferenced data can
be taken. Data-driven geography is (re)emerging due to a massive georeferenced dataflow
coming from sensors and people.

The notion of data-driven science defends that the generation of hypothesis and theory creation
is up to date by an iterative process where data is used inductively. Hence, it is possible to
name a new category of big data research that leads to the creation of new knowledge [61]. One
should note that the inductive process should not start in a theory-less void. Preexisting knowl­
edge is used to outline the analytic engine in order to inform the knowledge discovery process,
to originate valuable conclusions instead of detecting any-and-all possible relations [62].
Data-driven geography raises some issues that in fact have been long-lasting problems debated
within the geographic community. Just to name a few, one can point dealing with large data
volumes the problem of samples versus populations, the data fuzziness, and the frictions
between idiographic and nomothetic approaches. Yet, the conviction that location matters
(i.e., spatial context) is intrinsic to geography and acts as a strong motivation to approaches
such as spatial statistics, time geography, and geographic information science as an all.

Models can have very distinct applications, from the conception of suitability, vulnerability,
or risk indicators, to simulation to the assessment of planning scenarios. In a GIS framework,
modelling can provide insights about the way real systems work with enough precision and
accuracy to permit prediction and assertive decision-making.

Nowadays, two distinct cultures of modelling coexist [45, 63]. By one side, one can start
imaging a stochastic data model in what can be called a data modelling culture. The other
one, the algorithmic modelling culture, assumes that the core of the model is complex and
unidentified. The former uses the model for both information and prediction after retrieving
the parameter values from the data. In the latter, a shift exists from the data models to the
algorithms properties.
 Introductory Chapter: Spatial Analysis, Modelling, and Planning 9
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Putka and Oswald [64] indicate how geography could benefit by implementing the data algo­
rithmic philosophy. They claim that the actual data modelling philosophy prevents the ability
to predict results more accurately, generates models that do not integrate a phenomenon’s key
drivers, and cannot incorporate models’ uncertainty and complexity in a satisfactory manner.

4. Modelling and planning

The history of territories reveals cycles, both of progress and decline, if we consider only the
opposites. Each cycle mirrors, in scales, dimensions, and variable rhythms, the importance
of political decisions. Planning the territory constitutes an instituted praxis from which the
models of the desired evolution are derived. As a general rule, the models are drawn up on
the basis of essentially qualitative assumptions. They establish themselves as models that
transpose the dominant ideas resulting from the interpretation of the spirit of the laws and
regulations, from the debate of the technical solutions, and from public participation.

However, in the light of the recent theories on the territorial dynamics, there is the possibility
to resort to quantitative models that reveal the self-organizing systems of the territories (e.g.,
cellular automata, multi-agent systems, fractal analysis, etc.). These models use intensively
spatial modelling in a GIS environment and future scenarios simulation based on historical
information of geographical changes. When, for instance, one quantifies the land use/cover
changes and relates them with what is predicted in the plans, the conditions for quantitative
modelling are created, favoring the dialectic between models. Therefore, it is not a question of
using the confrontation between qualitative and quantitative models to nullify the relevance
and/or excessive valorization of one of them. On the contrary, it is to evaluate the potential of
each other and make use of it to improve the technical efficiency in the moment of prepara­
tion, monitoring, and evaluation of the territorial management instruments.

The legal systems and regulations of each country can be an opportunity to use geosimulation
models, of quantitative root, to enrich the political and technical debate, about the planning
of the territories in the future. It was in this context that we captured the questions relating to
the analysis and spatial modelling as fundamentals of urban planning and regional planning,
which, as we know, are complex processes of geographic space organization.

5. Conclusions

The difficulties to interpret and understand the territory, particularly with regard to the
mixing of subsystems, inevitably require using the notion of complexity. Thus, it is essential
to provide tools that could address complexity, linking both spatial organizations and the
system of actors who make them evolve. Therefore, the systems approach presents itself as a
paradigm capable of guiding the use and understanding of complex systems and as a prereq­
uisite for more advanced modelling approaches.
10 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Understanding social complexity requires the use of a large variety of computational app-
roaches. For instance, the multiscale nature of social clusters comprises a countless diversity of
organizational, temporal, and spatial dimensions, occasionally at once. Moreover, computation
denotes several computer-based tools, as well as essential concepts and theories, varying from
information extraction algorithms to simulation models [65, 66].

Location analysis and modelling as an integrating part of spatial analysis [67] come out from
Weber’s industrial location theory. Location models might embrace a descriptive methodol­
ogy, but they can also be very operative as normative environments. Hence, spatial analysis
overlaps typical data analytic methods such as statistics, network analysis, and several data
science viewpoints, such as data mining and machine learning.

Whereas there is an interesting discussion between statistics and machine learning research­
ers about the advantages and disadvantages of each method, it is unmistakable that the huge
mainstream of quantitative analytical methods falls inside the concept of data modelling cul­
ture. This enables a profounder knowledge about the importance of spatial values in shaping
the geographic space.

The spatial analysis overlapping with numerous fields of application leads to the coin of the
designation spatial science [68], which seems to better represent its singularities. In addition
to geography, spatial analysis has a clear linkage to regional science.

Ever since its beginning, regional science has dealt with knowledge discovery adopting a
neopositivism approach. It embraces the emerging architype of geospatial data integration
rooted in geographic information science [69–71] to analyze the complex systems and the
spatiotemporal processes that make them. It also extended the procedural boundary of spatial
analysis, through both exploratory spatial data analysis [72] and confirmatory spatial data
analysis [73].

Thus, spatial analysis and modelling is an interesting area of application within geographic
information science, directing analysis, modelling, and improving the comprehension of spa­
tiotemporal processes. It comprises a group of narrowly connected subareas, for example,
geographic knowledge discovery, data analytics, spatiotemporal statistics, social network
analysis, spatiotemporal modelling, and agent-based simulation.

Author details

José António Tenedório1 and Jorge Rocha2*

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

1 Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), Faculty of Social Sciences and

Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

2 Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

 Introductory Chapter: Spatial Analysis, Modelling, and Planning 11
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.81049

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 Section 2

Data Analytics and Spatial Analysis

 Chapter 2

One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic

Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating Multi-
Criteria Analysis Techniques and Spatial Statistics

Diego Montenegro, Ana Paula da Cunha,

Ingrid Machado, Liliane Duraes,
Stefan Vilges de Oliveira, Marcel Pedroso,
Pedroso,
Gilberto S. Gazêta and Reginaldo P. Brazil

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78364

Abstract
Among the human diseases caused by etiological agents transmitted by ticks in Brazil,
the most prevalent and public health interest is that one caused by species of Rickettsia—
Spotted Fever (SF). We applied the concept “One World, One Health” to achieve a proper
understanding of SF and determine risk scenarios for human infection by pathogenic
Rickettsia in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ). Multi-criteria decision analysis and spatial
statistics were performed on data encompassing epidemiology, health care, biotic deter-
ments, and socioeconomic and demographic variables. The construction of multi-criteria
descriptors used 33 indicators ordered in 12 sub criteria of 5 major categories: public
health, environmental health, acarology, veterinary health, and microbiology. SF hap-
pened nonrandomly in RJ and the risk was heterogeneous in the weight of indicators con-
tribution mainly associated with the criteria acarology (35.11%), microbiology (33.25%),
and veterinary medicine (23.96%). Spatially, and according to the PROMETHEE algo-
rithm, ticks from Amblyomma sculptum class and dogs are determinants for the occurrence
of human cases of SF in RJ. To define indicators of SF and plan health actions, the “One
World, One Health” concept proved to be applicable at three levels: (i) the local or pos-
sible areas of infection, (ii) the population or municipality, and (iii) the ecosystem or
state. The model of study is flexible according to the reality of the endemic areas and also
demonstrates its applicability from a national to a local (home) scale.

Keywords: one world, one health, tick-borne diseases, risk, spotted fever, multi-criteria
decision analyses

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
20 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

1. Introduction

A total of 1415 species of infectious agents have been associated with human diseases
throughout the world. From these, about 60% (868) are considered zoonosis [1], representing
75% of emerging diseases and 80% of agents with bioterrorist potential [2]. These high preva-
lence have led to new considerations regarding understanding pathogens that have negative
impacts on public and veterinary health [2].
“One World, One Health” is a holistic and interdisciplinary vision that integrates ecosystem
or environmental health, animal health, public health and food safety at local, country and
global scales [3–7].

The concept, which has many historical backgrounds, was presented in 2004 by the Wildlife
Conservation Society [8]. It is now widely accepted, incorporated, and disseminated by the World
Health Organization (WHO), the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The first joint efforts of this vision gave rise
to the Global Early Warning System for Major Animal Diseases including Zoonosis – GLEWS [9].
Several interdisciplinary, cooperative, and holistic studies have been developed toward
understanding and combating a wide variety of pathogenic diseases [3, 5–7, 10–17].
In the present work, we consider the concept “One World, One Health” sensu lato; that is, as
synonymous with “One Medicine”, “One Health”, Universal Health and Risk, and Disease
Ecology and Eco-epidemiology [3, 5, 6, 10, 16, 17] for the prevention, surveillance, and control
of infectious diseases of zoonotic origin.
Among zoonosis, rickettsiosis are produced by Gram-negative proteobacteria of the genus Rickettsia
that are transmitted mainly by ticks to mammalian hosts and, accidentally, to man [18–21].

In Brazil, among the diseases caused by etiological agents transmitted by ticks, the most
prevalent and of most interest to public health are Brazilian spotted fever (FMB) produced by
Rickettsia rickettsii, and caused by other species of Rickettsia that are considered as emerging
(species of the spotted fever group of Rickettsia-SFGR) such as Rickettsia strain Atlantic rainfor-
est [22–24]. However, for the purposes of the present study all these types of spotted fever will
be treated collectively as spotted fever (SF).
In the transmission cycle of Rickettsia, different co-specific relationships between ticks and
vertebrate hosts have been identified that involve geographical, ecological, and evolutionary
processes [19, 25–27].

Recent studies [24, 27–29] indicate that the dynamics of SF in the endemic states of Brazil
is of a seasonal nature, with the highest incidence rates in the second part of the year (June
to October). This seasonality has been associated with the population dynamics of species
of ticks of the genus Amblyomma, but particularly high densities of larvae and nymphs of
Amblyomma sculptum [22, 30–34]. This tick is considered the main vector of R. rickettsii among
the human population of Brazil [22, 23, 27].
However, there are a number of species of ticks that could be considered reservoirs and vectors
of pathogenic Rickettsia and some mammalian species that could function as amplifiers and
reservoirs of these bioagents. These elements are potentially responsible for the occurrence
 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating… 21
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and maintenance of epizootic cycles and the emergence and/or reemergence of epidemic out-
breaks of SF in Brazil. Although they are main determinants of bacterial transmission cycles,
they are not significant hazards due to the establishment of vulnerability and risk areas, and
surveillance programs, as well as efforts to control human outbreaks, as demonstrated by the
findings of a number of studies [25, 35–39].
An integrated approach is a promising strategy for understanding the dynamics of SF and
determining risk scenarios for infection of humans by pathogenic Rickettsia because it would
result in the establishment of SF surveillance and environmental control programs. This is
precisely what we aim to achieve in the present work by employing the concept of “One
World, One Health”. With the establishment of a clear risk scenario, clinically suspected cases
in high risk areas may be treated early [40, 41].

2. Materials and methods

2.1. Study area

The state of Rio de Janeiro is located in the eastern portion of Brazil’s Southeast Region and
occupies an area of 43,777.954 km2 divided into 92 municipalities. It is the fourth smallest
state (by area) in Brazil, yet has the highest population density (365.23 inhabitants/km2) with
an estimated population of 16,640,00 inhabitants. It is also the most urbanized state in the
country, with 97% of the population living in cities [42].

2.2. Epidemiological data and health care

The epidemiological data presented here was obtained from the Sistema de Informação de
Agravos de Notificação—SINAN (Notifiable Diseases Information System) [43] and provided
by the Secretaria de Estado de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro—SES/RJ (State Secretary Health of Rio
de Janeiro). The data comprised cases confirmed by laboratory tests (PCR or serology) and/or
clinical and epidemiological nexus of SF between 2007 and 2016.
These data were made available with the protection of the identity of the patients; therefore,
information such as names or addresses cannot be displayed at any time to comply with
national ethical regulations of Brazil [44].
To assess access to health care, the following municipal indicators were used: number of health
professionals (HP) and number of hospital beds (HB) per 100 thousand inhabitants. For these
indicators, we used the average of the information from the years 2010 and 2016 obtained
from the Secretaria de Atenção em Saúde-SAS (Health Care Secretary) of the Ministério da
Saúde do Brasil (Ministry of Health-MH) [45].

2.3. Biotic determinants

Information regarding potential vectors of SF and hosts of the tick was obtained from the data-
base of the Laboratório de Referência Nacional em Vetores das Riquetsioses (LIRN—Labortory
of the National Reference of Rickettsial Vectors), built from samples received and analyzed
within the workflow of the Rede Nacional de Vigilância de Ambiental para Febre Maculosa
22 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

e outras Rickettsioses (National Network for Environmental Monitoring for spotted fever and
other rickettsial diseases) of MH from 2007 to 2016. The samples were collected in sampling units
(specimens originating from the same host or environment), by cloth-dragging, visual searches
on hosts and inspection of plant litter and abiotic surfaces by state and municipal health teams
from Rio de Janeiro for environmental surveillance and investigation of cases of SF.
Ticks were identified using dichotomous keys, while species of Rickettsia infecting ticks were
identified using PCR [see in detail in Montenegro et al. [27]].
To characterize conditions of climatic suitability throughout the study region, potential distri-
bution models for A. sculptum, Amblyomma autreolatum, and Amblyomma ovale, the main vec-
tors of SF in Brazil [22], were produced using the Maxent algorithm version 3.2.1 [46]. For this,
we used seven climatic variables that we considered crucial to the biology of the species and
which had already been evaluated for collinearity by principal component analysis (PCA)
in Niche Software version 3.0: annual mean temperature, mean diurnal temperature range,
maximum temperature in the warmest month, minimum temperature in the coldest month,
annual precipitation, and precipitation in the wettest and driest months [37, 38, 47, 48].
To generate the final models, we selected the logistic values for the final output of the 25 bootstrap
interactions. The mean number of repetitions was selected as the final model and converted into
binary models to generate adequacy maps that were overlaid as a shape-file to subtract informa-
tion about adequacy in relation to the municipality of occurrence of these vectors (Figure 1).

2.4. Socioeconomic and demographic data

Data for socioeconomic and demographic indicators are being used to understand the
dynamics of spotted fever [49–51]. It was obtained from Brazilian census data acquired by
the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística-IBGE [52]. The following indicators were
used for the analysis: Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI), GINI Index (IG),
Demographic Density (DD), Land Use Municipality (LUM), Percentage of Poverty in the
Rural Area (PPRA), Degree of Urbanization (DU), and the Percentage of the Agricultural
Contribution to the Municipal GDP (GDP-AM).

2.5. Analysis of data

The first phase of analysis evaluated whether human infections with SF-causing pathogens
occur randomly with respect to time. Three statistical tests were used in statistical software
[53], with at least two coincident tests with confidence levels of 95% determining randomness,
or not, of human cases of SF.

In the second phase of analysis, two multi-criteria decision analyses (MDA) were performed,
for the risk of human infection with pathogenic tick-borne Rickettsia. Multi-criteria decision
analysis is a method that approaches a certain object from different characteristics that influ-
ence the occurrence of a given problem. The method has become increasingly used for under-
standing of events of interest in public health [54].
 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating… 23
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78364

Figure 1. Location of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (A), its municipalities (B) and potential distribution models for
A. sculptum, A. aureolatum, and A. ovale by Maxent algorithm (C).

The following phases of MDA were defined: Structuring Phase, Modelling Phase and
Evaluation Phase. The objective of the Structuring Phase is to understand the decision tree
formed by the determinant variables of SF. The Modelling Phase mathematically expresses
human risk to SF and the Evaluation Phase presents the results of the model.

2.5.1. MDA structuring phase

To construct multi-criteria descriptors and decision-making processes, three criteria compris-

ing 13 subcriteria, which in turn include 34 indicators of similar nature and that are consid-
ered determinants of SF, were used (Box 1).

2.5.2. MDA modelling phase

For modelling MDA, numerical values of criteria, subcriteria, and indicators were incorpo-
rated into the decision-making model by employing peer-to-peer comparison. This compari-
son method attributes a preferential value to two criteria, two sub-criteria or two indicators,
which are graphically compared to one another using the D-sight program [55]. Theoretical
weights, ranging from 1 to 100, for the components of the decision-making model were gener-
ated using the PROMETHHE method (preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation)
through peer-to-peer comparison [56].
24 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Criteria Subcriteria Indicators Sources

Public Health Health care HP SAS

HB

Ratio HP/HB

Social MHDI IBGE

GI

PPRA

Environmental Health Land use LUM IBGE

DU

GDP-AM

Demographic DD

Vector fitness (presence of vectors in the Modeled presence LIRN

environment (not hosts))
Real presence LIRN

Acarology Tick vector (proven R. rickettsii A. aureolatum LIRN

transmission)
A. sculptum

A. ovale

R. sanguineus

Tick carrier synanthropic (infected A. dubitatum

with Rickettsia but without proof of
transmission to hosts and associated D. nitens
with anthropized environments) Rh. microplus

A. longirostre

Tick wild (infected or not with Rickettsia) Ha. leporispalustris

Ornithodoros sp.

Veterinary health Reservoir animals (proven infection of C. familiares LIRN

tick)
H. hydrochaeris

Host animals (has not been shown to E. caballus

function as a reservoir)
B. taurus

F. catus

E. asinus

Mula

Parasitism in humans H. sapiens

Microbiology Etiological agent R. rickettsii LIRN and Montenegro

et al. [27]
Spotted fever group of
Rickettsia – SFGR
Rickettsia

Box 1. Criteria, sub-criteria, and indicators of multi-criteria decision analysis (MDA).

 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating… 25
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78364

It should be noted that the PROMETHEE method was developed in order to help the indi-
vidual or collective decision maker. These methods serve to solve problems by selecting, or
making arrangements of, possible alternatives (municipality, options, and shares), subject to
an assessment of various of criteria (variables, qualitative and quantitative indices, indicators,
attributes, and any criteria with numerical or nominal values), which may be in conflict with
each other, and seek to simultaneously satisfy different solutions for decision making [56, 57].

The third phase of analysis involved using the scores resulting from the PROMETHEE model
for spatial statistical analysis. Spatial dependence of risk for each area assessed was analyzed
using the Moran Local Index—LISA (Anselin 2010), with 9999 permutations, no spatial auto-
correlation and statistical significance (LISASig) considered to be greater than 0.05. All spatial
statistical analyses were performed using the program TerraView [58].

Finally, using data points from data on probable infection sites for confirmed SF cases (using
addresses reported in the epidemiological form with Google Maps), we sought to focus on
areas with the highest probability of human SF infection within the biomes, and the greatest
spatial association with hosts and ectoparasites in RJ, using the program QGis [59].

2.5.3. MDA evaluation phase

This is the phase where the results of the modelling are presented

3. Results

Human infections with pathogenic Rickettsia in RJ occur mainly between the months of
March–April and August–October, with it being more pronounced in the latter (Figure 2).

Two of the three tests employed showed that the temporal dynamics of SF cases is not a
sequence of temporally random events. The first test counted the number of times the data
sequence was above and below the median and determined that the sample size was too small
to perform a valid test (it was inconclusive).

The second test counted the number of times a sequence went up or down (number of execu-
tions up and down = 46, expected number of runs = 77, and Z statistic = 6.77, Pv = 1.3−11) and
the third was based on the sum of squares of the autocorrelation coefficients—Box Pierce test
(based on the first 24 autocorrelation coefficients, Z = 37.3, Pv = 0.040).

Multi-criteria modelling found the risk to tick-borne transmission of spotted fever group of
Rickettsia in Rio de Janeiro to be heterogeneous with regard to the contribution of the weights
of the two scenarios examined. The main sources of variation are in the contributions of
the criteria acarology (35.11%), microbiology (33.25%), and veterinary medicine (23.96%)
(Table 1). The five criteria are made up of 13 subcriteria, and 21 of the original 34 priority
indicators and variables, contributed at least 2% to the two models of MDA.

With the exception of environmental health, all criteria contributed equally to the determina-
tion of risk scenarios for SF; the greatest influence was by acarology, with 27.3% of the total
26 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 2. Temporal (monthly) dynamics of human infection with tick-borne pathogenic Rickettsia that causes spotted
fever in the state of Rio de Janeiro.

weight of the model. On the other hand, the risk scenario was found to be more associated
with acarology and microbiology (Table 1). The five criteria are made up of 13 subcriteria, and
21 of the original 34 priority indicators and variables; the indicators contributed at least 2% to
the two models of MDA (Table 1).
According to the weight of each indicator, the largest (5%) absolute value generated by the
PROMETHEE algorithm for the occurrence of infection with SFGR is the criteria associated
with the subcriteria health care (rate HP/HB), reservoir animals (C. familiares), human parasit-
ism, tick vector (A. sculptum), and etiological agent (R. rickettsii and SFGR) (Table 1).
The multi-criteria evaluation of the results of the PROMETHEE method found heterogeneous
risk scores for the 92 municipalities of the state of RJ. Based on the scores, 25% (23/92) of the
territories are located in the highest level (4th quartile) of risk for SF (Figure 3a).
The LISA technique identified 48.9% (45/92) of the municipalities as having high spatial
dependence, with 19.6% (18/92) are in the category High (High-High) and 29.3% (27/92) in the
category Low (Low-Low). For the same categories of spatial dependence mentioned for risk
were found (Figure 3b). Statistically significant spatial correlation was found in 13.0% (12/92)
of the municipalities (LISASig ≤5%) (Figure 3c).
The risk model was sensitive to identifying areas with human SF infection (Figure 3d).
Finally, it was possible to georeference 50% (39/78) of the confirmed cases of SF with probable
areas of infection (PAIs) in RJ. The PAIs are located mainly in the areas where the Atlantic
Forest biome and anthropic areas intersect (Figure 4). The ticks A. sculptum and R. sanguineus
were the most frequent and abundant species in the PAIs, while dogs and the environment
are the most significant host and site of infestation, respectively, with the most ticks occurring
in places where humans acquire rickettsias.
 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating… 27
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78364

Criterion Subcriterion Indicators Theoretical Absolute weight

weight (%) (%)—PROMETHEE
Public Health 18.16

Health care 75

Rate HP/HB 50 6.81

HP 25 3.4

HB 25 3.4

Social 25

PPRA 33.33 1.51

GI 33.33 1.51

MHDI 33.33 1.51

Environmental Health 11.98

Land use 29.7

GDP-AM 42.86 1.52

DU 28.57 1.02

LUM 28.57 1.02

Demographic 16.34

DD 100 1.96

Vector fitness 53.96

Real presence 66.67 4.31

Modeled presence 33.33 2.16

Veterinary Health 23.96

Reservoir animals 31.89

H. hydrochaeris 33.33 2.55

C. familiares 66.67 5.09

Host animals 22.11

Mula 9.59 0.51

E. asinus 9.59 0.51

F. catus 14.53 0.77

B. taurus 30.46 1.61

E. caballus 35.83 1.9

Parasitism in humans 46

H. sapiens 100 11.02

Acarology 35.11

Tick vector 52.78

R. sanguineus 13.16 2.44

A. aureolatum 25.23 4.68

A. sculptum 42.43 7.86

28 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Criterion Subcriterion Indicators Theoretical Absolute weight

weight (%) (%)—PROMETHEE
A. ovale 19.17 3.55

Tick carrier

Rh. microplus 33.33 3.89

D. nitens 33.33 3.89

A. dubitatum 33.33 3.89

Tick wild 13.96

Ornithodoros sp. 33.33 1.63

Ha. leporispalustris 33.33 1.63

A. longirostre 33.33 1.63

Microbiology 33.25

Etiological agent 100

Rickettsia 9.53 1.03

SFGR 24.99 2.7

R-rickettsii 65.48 7.07

Table 1. Weights of the criteria used for determining vulnerability for tick-borne transmission of the spotted-fever group
of Rickettsia to humans.

Figure 3. Spatial vulnerability for SF in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The letter a corresponds to the range of absolute
values, b to spatial dependence, c to the statistical significance of spatial correlation and d to the number of cases with
local infection.
 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating… 29
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78364

Figure 4. Distributions of biological and environmental determinants of probable areas of infection (PAIs) of pathogenic
Rickettsia in the state of Rio de Janeiro, 2007–2016: (a) PAIs relative to the biomes of RJ, (b) tick species, (c) hostpots for SF
with 5Km radius, and (d) host and environment infested with ticks.

The municipalities of Porciúncula, Natividade, and Itaperuna are located in a hostpot for
human acquisition of bacteria (Figure 4).

4. Discussion

In the state of RJ, human infections with pathogenic Rickettsia are an event of significant pub-
lic health interest that do not happen randomly; there is seasonality with occurrence between
March and April and between August to October, as in all endemic states of Brazil [24, 28, 29,
60]. This understanding requires that collective health actions be deployed before, during,
and after these periods, in order to combat the scenario of high mortality in RJ [27, 60].
There exists a spatial association between increased frequency and abundance of the tick species
A. sculptum and R. sanguineus, the presence of dogs and the environment (grass and vegetation)
infested. At least spatially, and according to the PROMETHEE algorithm, A. sculptum and dogs
are essential determinants for the occurrence of human cases of SF in RJ. However, we empha-
size the need for focused studies on the participation of R. sanguineus in outbreaks in RJ [27].
This tick (R. sanguineus) functions as reservoir and vector among hosts, keeping other Rickettsia
wild strains brought to the peridomicile environment by other species of ticks that parasitize
dogs (A. aureolatum), as happens in the state of São Paulo, Brazil [61].
Recent studies of SF epidemiology in RJ [60] have found that 69% (72/104) of SF cases con-
firmed in the last 10 years were in urban areas and the rate of lethality for people infected in
30 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

the peri-urban environment is greater (86.6%, 13/15). Thus, in addition to solving this prob-
lem, it is also necessary to determine the degree to which the dog tick participates in urban
outbreaks and what strains of Rickettsia it amplifies.
The application of the concept of “One World, One Health” in the present study addresses three
scales for defining indicators and health actin plans: (i) the individual or PAIs; (ii) the popula-
tion or municipality; and (iii) The ecosystem or state. The first level includes hotspots for
human acquisition of the bacteria (Figure 4c). These same areas possess the greatest number
of biological elements in the PAI and thus are the places where advertising posters should be
placed announcing the risk of SF acquisition [41].
Note that health care represents a considerable weight in the categorization of risk (13.61%),
indicating that intersectoral municipal policies (second level) could have an impact on this
indicator. Ensuring that the number of health care sites, the number of health professionals
and, above all, the actions of epidemiological surveillance and health care, including treat-
ment of suspected patients are sufficient to reverse the lethality coefficients in the state, even
without confirmatory evidence [40, 41].
The third level serves to define and prioritize indicators in public health and environmental
health, as well as interdisciplinary, to intervene and monitor in the state of RJ. The adequacy of
resources and the development of pilot eco-epidemiological studies at a sub-regional level, fol-
lowing the patterns of risk and spatial dependence (Figure 3a and b), are also recommended.
Despite the fact that climate data were used for modelling suitability for the presence of the
principal vectors in Brazil, these variables (temperature, humidity, rainfall, elevation, etc.)
did not permit a local evaluation, as recommended [26, 37, 38, 47, 48, 62–66]. This limitation
is associated with the low number of georeferenced cases (50% of the cases confirmed with
PAIs were in RJ) and the lack of a necessary control of georeferenced unconfirmed cases of SF.
We urgently recommend that all cases (suspected and confirmed) be georeferenced. For this pur-
pose, we recommend using the free, Internet-based GPS application essentials, which also func-
tions from satellites without the need of an internet connection (http://www.gpsessentials.com/).
Although this is not the first interdisciplinary effort to integrate different determinants for
understanding SF [22, 61], it is the first in Brazil to use multi-criteria analysis with mathemati-
cal algorithms applied to that pathology.
The present work uses the PROMETHEE algorithm to transform qualitative perceptions to
quantitative values of the different dangers and threats that comprise the socio-environmental
risk of human infection and defines the spatial dependence for infection with SF. Therefore, in
addition to being a model study for cases where weights of the contributions of each element
of the transmission chain are flexible according to the realities of the endemic areas, this study
also demonstrates applicability from a national to local (domicile) scale.

Acknowledgements

We thank the Secretarias Municipais e Estaduais de Saúde (Secretary Municipal and of State
of Health) of RJ for logistic and administrative support in acquiring information. This chapter
 One World, One Health Challenge: The Holistic Understanding of Rickettsiosis Integrating… 31
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78364

is part of the doctoral thesis of D. Montenegro and was supported by the PhD scholarship
program funded by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes—
Brasil sem Miséria) /FIOCRUZ.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that we have prepared the manuscript in accordance with the standards
of the journal, possess exclusive responsibility for the accuracy and correctness of the con-
tents of the submitted article and declare that we have no conflicts of interest. The opinions
expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the
journal or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated.

Author contributions

DM—contributed to the concept, design, and application of MDA techniques and spatial statistics;
APC and MP—contributed to the design and application of MDA techniques; SVO made the cli-
mate suitability modelling for vector; IBM, LD, SVO, GSG and RPB—contributed to research project
design and concept, data gathering and interpretation of results. All authors contributed to critically
revising for important intellectual content, final approval of the version to be published, and all are
in agreement to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the
accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved.

Author details

Diego Montenegro1,2,3,6*, Ana Paula da Cunha4, Ingrid Machado2, Liliane Duraes2,

Stefan Vilges de Oliveira5, Marcel Pedroso4, Gilberto S. Gazêta2,5* and Reginaldo P. Brazil1

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected] and [email protected]

1 Laboratório de Doenças Parasitária, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2 Laboratório de Referência Nacional em Vetores das Riquetsioses—Secretaria de Vigilância
em Saúde/Ministério da Saúde, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

3 Fundación Chilloa/Santa Marta, Colombia

4 Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnologia em Saúde-ICICT/Fiocruz,

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
5 Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde—Ministério da Saúde, Brasilia, Brazil

6 Research Group in Evolution, Systematics and Ecology Molecular, Universidad del

Magdalena, Santa Marta, Colombia
32 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

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 Chapter 3

Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water

Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to
2017

Lenwood W. Hall Jr and Ronald D. Anderson

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

Abstract
The objective of this study was to summarize and map bifenthrin sediment and water
column monitoring data from California waterbodies (2001–2017) and determine where
detected bifenthrin concentrations were reported and potential toxicity to aquatic biota
may exist. Bifenthrin sediment data based on targeted sampling in depositional areas were
available for more sites (982) than water column data (716 sites), and sediment sites had a
lower percent of nondetected concentrations (36%) when compared with water values
(77%). Comparison of results from three ambient sediment toxicity tests from sediment sites
and six ambient toxicity tests from water sites showed no toxicity from 43% of the sediment
sites and 65% of the water sites. A comparison of sediment measurements with acute
toxicity data from two test species (Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans) showed no
toxicity at 80–99.5% of the sites. Bifenthrin total water concentrations compared with a
proposed 2015 chronic criterion of 0.01 ng/L showed no exceedances at 77% of the sites.
Due to the conservative assumptions used in this analysis, bifenthrin ecological risk to
aquatic life in California water bodies from both sediment exposure based on only targeted
sampling from depositional areas and water column exposures based on using only total
concentrations (not the bioavailable phase) is generally judged to be low statewide.

Keywords: bifenthrin monitoring, bifenthrin toxicity, California water bodies,

depositional areas

1. Introduction

Pyrethroids are a class of insecticides that are registered for use in both agricultural and urban
areas. These insecticides are specifically registered for use on a wide variety of agricultural crops,

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
40 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

home and garden, landscaping, nurseries, structural sites, vector control and golf courses [1]. In
recent years, pyrethroid use in urban areas of California has increased as the use of organophos-
phate insecticides has declined [2]. Agricultural use of pyrethroids has remained relatively stable
over the past decade in California with some exceptions such as increased use on almonds and
fruit production concurrently with reductions in organophosphate use [3].
Water column and sediment toxicity data from water bodies in the State of California from
2001 to 2009 were summarized by Hunt et al. [4]. These investigators reported that organo-
phosphates and more recently pyrethroids were the primary pesticides suspected in causing
toxicity. For the pyrethroids, bifenthrin was the specific pyrethroid that was implicated in
causing toxicity more frequently in both sediment and water than the other pyrethroids based
on toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs). Hunt et al. [4] displayed the results of their
analysis using a series of maps, and the general “Big Picture” message from these maps is that
sediment and water column toxicity (i.e., from pesticides such as bifenthrin) is widespread
throughout California. What is lacking in the Hunt et al. [4] analysis is an objective presenta-
tion of data from California water bodies showing sites where bifenthrin has been measured in
sediment and water (including both detected and non-detected concentrations) and
corresponding toxicity or lack of toxicity has been reported. A previous analysis was
conducted where the California bifenthrin sediment data but not water column data were
summarized from 2001 to 2010 [5]. The general objective of this study was to update the
bifenthrin sediment analysis and include water column data to address the research question
described above using data collected from 2001 to 2017 in California water bodies.
The specific objectives of this study were to collect and summarize bifenthrin sediment and
water column monitoring and corresponding toxicity data from 2001 to 2017 in order to develop
a series of maps in California water bodies to show the following: (1) all sites where bifenthrin
measurements in sediment and water have been conducted; (2) identify from this universe of
sites which sites have non-detected and detected concentrations of bifenthrin in sediment and
water (e.g., bifenthrin measurements were made but concentrations were below or above the
level of detection); (3) identify from this universe of sites which sites have significant ambient
toxicity, nonsignificant ambient toxicity, or mixed results based on concurrent ambient sediment
and water toxicity tests and bifenthrin measurements; (4) identify sites with significant ambient
toxicity with co-occurring nondetected bifenthrin sediment and water concentrations (toxicity
due to stressors other than bifenthrin) and (5) identify the sites showing significant sediment
toxicity where bifenthrin is implicated as a contributor to the toxicity based on comparisons with
acute laboratory sediment toxicity values with Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans (dilutus)
(geometric mean of multiple values used for each species) or significant water column toxicity is
implicated based on a comparison with species sensitivity distributions (SSD) fifth centile of
14.4 ng/L or proposed acute (0.06 ng/L) or chronic (0.01 ng/L) criteria [6].

2. Methods

The primary source of all data used in this study was the California Environmental Data
Exchange Network (CEDEN), which was also the primary data source used by Hunt et al. [4]
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 41
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

in their analysis. CEDEN data are considered high-quality data compatible with California’s
Surface Water Ambient Monitoring Program (SWAMP). We also used sediment and water
column chemistry and toxicity data from Central Valley Water Quality Coalitions and our
own data sets (University of Maryland) if these data sets were not available in CEDEN.
The first step of this project was to identify and obtain bifenthrin sediment and water column
monitoring data and ambient sediment and water column toxicity data from California water
bodies from CEDEN in order to develop a series of maps. Coordinates for the sites were
required if the bifenthrin data were used in the maps, and in some cases, a web research was
used to determine site coordinates when they were not provided in the CEDEN database.
Coordinates for all sites are presented in other reports [7, 8]. Only sediment data with concur-
rent total organic carbon (TOC) data were used in the analysis. All sediment sites were from
depositional areas (fine grain sediment). All the water column monitoring data were from
whole water samples (not filtered or dissolved fraction).
Multiple acceptable acute sediment toxicity values were available for both the amphipod Hyalella
azteca and the midge Chironomus tentans (dilutes) as presented in Table 1 [9–15]. The geometric
mean of five Hyalella azteca acute toxicity values normalized to 1% TOC was 6.1 ng/g. The
geometric mean of three Chironomus tentans (dilutus) toxicity values was 177.5 ng/g normalized
to 1% TOC. Both the bifenthrin sediment measurements and the toxicity values were normalized
to 1% TOC to allow for an accurate comparison. There were no California bifenthrin sediment
quality criteria that could be used for comparison with field measurements.
Bifenthrin acute water column toxicity data from laboratory studies (generally clean filtered
water) were available for 17 species as presented in Table 2 [16–28]. These data were used to
develop a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) using a log normal distribution with a corresp-
onding fifth centile of 14.4 ng/L as presented in Figure 1. Bifenthrin total water column concen-
trations were compared with this fifth centile to determine the frequency of exceedances. We also

Species 10-day LC50 (ng/g) Geometric mean Reference

H. azteca 5.1 [9]

10.1 [10]
8.3 [11]
9.9 [12]

2.0 [13]
6.1
C. tentans 81 [13]
>455 [14]

152 [15]
177.5

Table 1. Acute (10-day) freshwater sediment toxicity data normalized to 1% TOC for Hyalella azteca and Chironomus
tentans used to calculate a geometric mean for each species. These geometric means were compared with field bifenthrin
sediment measurements normalized to 1% TOC as presented in Figures 5 and 6.
42 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Species Endpoint Concentration (ng/L) Reference

Hyalella azteca 96 h LC50 7.5 Geomean: [12, 16]

Procloeon sp. 48 h LC50 84.3 [16]
Ceriodaphnia dubia 96 h LC50 105 Geomean: [17, 18]

Gammarus pulex 48 h LC50 110 [19]

Oncorhynchus mykiss 96 h LC50 120 Geomean: [20, 21]

Trichoptera 48 h LC50 180 [19]

Lepomis macrochirus 96 h LC50 300 Geomean: [22, 23]

Hexagenia sp. 48 h LC50 390 [19]

Pimephales promelas 96 h LC50 405 Geomean: [24, 25]

Daphnia magna 48 h EC50 420 Geomean: [26, 27]

Enallagma/Ischnura 24 h LC50 1100 [28]

Simulium vittatum 24 h LC50 1300 [28]

Heptageniidae 24 h LC50 2300 [28]

Chironomus dilutus 96 h LC50 2615 [16]

Hydrophilus spp. 24 h LC50 5400 [28]

Thamnocephalus platyurus 24 h LC50 5700 [19]

Hydropsyche/Cheumatopsyche 24 h LC50 7200 [28]

Table 2. Summary of acute water column bifenthrin toxicity data used to develop a species sensitivity distribution (SSD)
and fifth centile.

Figure 1. Species sensitivity distribution for bifenthrin based on a log-normal distribution from water column toxicity
data for 17 species. The fifth centile was 14.4 ng/L.
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 43
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

compared the bifenthrin total water concentrations with the 2015 University of California Davis
proposed acute criterion of 0.06 ng/L and proposed chronic criterion of 0.01 ng/L [6].
Maps were developed from Arcview using bifenthrin sediment and water column data summa-
rized by site coordinates in Excel spread sheets. Bifenthrin acute ambient sediment toxicity data
were available for Hyalella azteca, Chironomus tentans (dilutus) and Eohaustorius estuarius. Sediment
maps comparing bifenthrin measurements with acute Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans
(dilutus) single species sediment toxicity data values were developed at sites where concurrent total
organic carbon (TOC) values were reported. For the water column data, maps were developed with
concurrent water column measurements and concurrent ambient toxicity data with the following
test species: water flea (Ceriodaphnia dubia); fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas); amphipod
(Hyalella azteca); copepod (Eurytemora affinis); Topsmelt silverside (Atherinops affinis) and midge
(Chironomus dilutes). Frequency of exceedance for all sediment and water column endpoints was
determined. Maps were also developed for nondetected sediment and water concentrations and
co-occurring ambient toxicity data to demonstrate toxicity, mixed results and no toxicity. If toxicity
was reported and bifenthrin was not detected, then toxicity was attributed to other stressors.

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Bifenthrin sediment data

A total of 2312 bifenthrin sediment measurements normalized to 1% TOC for California sites
from 2001 to 2017 including site names, site coordinates, sampling dates, TOC, bifenthrin
concentration (ng/g) and bifenthrin concentration normalized to 1% TOC (ng/g) are presented
in a report [7]. Concentrations normalized to 1% TOC ranged from nondetected to 697.4 ng/g.
Many duplicate/composite bifenthrin measurements were removed from the dataset if the
samples were collected within 1 h and had the exact same bifenthrin and TOC values.
Bifenthrin sediment measurements with concurrent TOC values were available from 982 sites
in California from 2001 to 2017 as presented in Figure 2. From a spatial perspective, these
sediment sites appeared to represent most of the state, although most of these sites were in the
Central Valley, Central Coast and Southern California.

Bifenthrin detection limits for nondetected measurements ranged from 0.025 to 1.00 ng/g for
most of the data set. Detection limits ranged from 1.01 to 440 ng/g for 68 nondetected mea-
surements that were removed from the dataset (prior to matching them with TOC data)
because these high detection limits were judged to be unacceptable for the current analysis.
Based on a review of CEDEN, it appears that all of these bifenthrin measurements were
collected in depositional areas containing fine grain material such as silt and clay according to
the SWAMP Protocols [29]. Therefore, these data do not represent the results of random
sampling. This is a critical “ecological relevance issue” because the sediment from at least
some of the water bodies sampled are dominated by non-depositional areas (larger grain
deposited sediment such as sand or gravel) as previously reported [30]. These nondepositional
areas generally do not accumulate hydrophobic chemicals such as bifenthrin. Hence, all the
results presented below represent worst-case conditions from a watershed perspective because
only sediment data from depositional areas are considered.
44 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 2. All California sediment sites (green dots) where samples were taken for bifenthrin with concurrent TOC
measurements from 2001 to 2017.

Based on this universe of 982 sites, measurements below the level of detection were reported at
358 sites (36%) while detected concentrations were reported at 516 sites (53%) (Figure 3).
Mixed results including both detected and non-detected concentrations were reported for 108
sites (11% of the total).
Ambient sediment toxicity data based on Hyalella azteca, Chironomus dilutus, and Eohaustorius
estuarius were available for 499 sites where concurrent bifenthrin measurements were repo-
rted. The following results were reported in Figure 4: (1) significant toxicity was reported at
180 sites (36%); (2) nonsignificant toxicity was reported 212 sites (43%) and (3) mixed results
of significant and nonsignificant toxicity based on two or more tests were reported at 107
sites (21%).
One percent TOC normalized bifenthrin measurements were reported from 982 sites to allow a
comparison with both Hyalella and Chironomus acute laboratory toxicity values. Nondetected
values with detection limits ≤1.00 ng/g were assigned a value of ½ the detection limit for this
analysis. Bifenthrin concentrations from these sites were compared with the geometric mean of
five acute Hyalella azteca toxicity values in Table 1 normalized to 1% TOC (6.1 ng/g). The
results of this analysis in Figure 5 showed the following: (1) bifenthrin measurements below
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 45
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

Figure 3. California bifenthrin sediment monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 with detected concentrations only (red dots),
nondetected concentrations only (blue dots) and mixed results of detected or non-detected concentrations on two or more
sampling events (yellow dots).

Figure 4. California bifenthrin sediment monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 with significant ambient sediment toxicity
(red dots), no significant ambient sediment toxicity (blue dots) and mixed results of significant and nonsignificant
ambient toxicity based on two or more tests (yellow dots).
46 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 5. California bifenthrin sediment monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 that exceeded the 1% TOC normalized
(6.1 ng/g) H. azteca sediment toxicity value (red dots) did not exceed the sediment toxicity value (blue dots) and mixed
results of exceeding and not exceeding the sediment toxicity value based on two or more measurements (yellow dots).

6.1 ng/g were reported at 786 sites (80%); (2) bifenthrin measurements above 6.1 ng/g were
reported at 103 sites (11%) and (3) mixed results were reported for 93 sites (9%).
The 1% TOC normalized bifenthrin values from 982 sites were compared with the geometric
mean of three 1% TOC normalized Chironomus tentans (dilutus) acute toxicity values (177.5 ng/
g in Table 1) presented in Figure 6. There were no exceedances of the 177.5 ng/g value for
99.5% of the sites. There were only two sites (Del Puerto Creek at Highway 33/Mulberry Road
and Santa Clara River (403S39062)—see [7]) where the Chironomus acute value was exceeded
(0.2%) and three sites (Alamo River Outlet, Bouquet Canyon Creek and Dual Storm Drain at
Opal and Parkside Way) where mixed results of exceedances and nonexceedances (0.3%) were
reported.
In the absence of sediment criteria, this begs the question of which species (Hyalella or
Chironomus) should be used to determine toxicity in California water bodies. Hyalella is clearly
much more sensitive to pyrethroids such as bifenthrin [31], but the case could certainly be
made that Chironomus, which is a chironomid that is both dominant and representative in
many California water bodies [32] may be more appropriate for assessing toxicity. Another
“weight of evidence” approach to also consider is to use a suite of toxicity tests with a number
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 47
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

Figure 6. California bifenthrin sediment monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 that exceeded the 1% TOC normalized
(177.5 ng/g) C. tentans acute sediment toxicity value (red dots) did not exceed the sediment toxicity value (blue dots) and
mixed results of exceeding and not exceeding the sediment toxicity value (yellow dots).

of different test species before a final judgment is made for determining toxicity in a water
body. This approach has been used and accepted in other areas of the United States such as the
Chesapeake Bay [33].

There were 244 California sediment sites sampled from 2001 to 2017 with nondetected concen-
trations of bifenthrin and co-occurring ambient sediment toxicity data as presented in Figure 7.
Sixty-four percent of these sites had nondetected bifenthrin sediment concentrations and no
significant toxicity. Thirty-six percent of these sites had nondetected bifenthrin sediment con-
centrations with some significant sediment toxicity which indicates that toxicity at these sites is
caused by stressors other than bifenthrin.

3.2. Bifenthrin water column data

Bifenthrin water column concentrations from California sites from 2001 to 2017 including site
names, sampling dates, coordinates, bifenthrin concentrations (ng/L) are presented in a report
[8]. Water column concentrations of bifenthrin based on 3256 measurements ranged from
nondetected to 5634 ng/L (influent sample at wastewater treatment facility) with only 16% of the
measurements above the level of detection. Bifenthrin detection limits for nondetected values
48 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 7. California bifenthrin sediment monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 with nondetected bifenthrin concentrations
and significant ambient sediment toxicity (red dots), no significant ambient sediment toxicity (blue dots) and mixed
results of significant and non-significant ambient sediment toxicity based on two or more tests (yellow dots).

ranged from 0.1 to 6 ng/L and the range for detected values ranged was 0.05–17.0 ng/L. Nondete-
cted measurements from 84 samples with extremely high detection limits (6.44–400 ng/L) were
removed from the dataset because these detection limits were substantially higher than proposed
effect thresholds.
Bifenthrin water column measurements were available from 716 sites in California from 2001
to 2017 as presented in Figure 8. Most of the bifenthrin water measurements were conducted
in the Central Valley, Central Coast or southern areas of California. Based on this universe of
716 sites, 549 sites (77%) had nondetected values while detected concentrations were reported
at 63 sites (9%) (Figure 9). Mixed results of both detected and nondetected concentrations by
site were reported at 104 sites (14%). In Figure 10, ambient water column toxicity data based
on the following single species ambient tests were available for 467 sites where concurrent
bifenthrin measurements were conducted: Ceriodaphnia dubia (1438 tests); Pimephales promelas
(1155 tests); Hyalella azteca (527 tests); Eurytemora affinis (25 tests); Atherinops affinis (20 tests);
and Chironomus dilutus (23 tests). No significant toxicity was reported at 304 sites (65%) while
mixed results of significant and no significant toxicity at a site or significant toxicity at a site
was reported at 163 sites (35%).
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 49
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

Figure 8. All California water column sites (green dots) where samples were taken for bifenthrin from 2001 to 2017.

Figure 9. California bifenthrin water column monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 with detected concentrations only (red
dots), nondetected concentrations only (blue dots) and mixed results of detected or nondetected concentrations on two or
more dates (yellow dots).
50 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 10. California bifenthrin water column monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 (467 sites) with significant ambient
water column toxicity (red dots), no significant ambient water column toxicity (blue dots) and mixed results of significant
and nonsignificant ambient toxicity based on two or more tests (yellow dots).

There were 429 California water sites sampled from 2001 to 2017 with nondetected concentra-
tions of bifenthrin in water and co-occurring water column toxicity data as presented in
Figure 11. The data presented in Figure 11 showed the following: (1) 69% of the sites showed
nondetected bifenthrin concentrations and no significant toxicity and (2) 31% of the sites
showed nondetected bifenthrin concentrations with significant toxicity (or mixed results)
which suggests that toxicity at these sites is due to factors other than bifenthrin.

Bifenthrin water column concentrations from 716 sites were compared with the fifth centile of
14.4 ng/L from an SSD (Figure 1) to determine which sites had exceedances of this fifth centile
(Figure 12). There were no exceedances of the 14.4 ng/L fifth centile at 630 sites (88%) while 64
sites (9%) had mixed results of exceedances/no exceedances based on two or more samples
(Figure 12). The SSD fifth centile was exceeded at 22 sites (3%).
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 51
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

Figure 11. California bifenthrin water column monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 (429 sites) with non-detected bifenthrin
concentrations and significant ambient water column toxicity (red dots), no significant ambient water column toxicity
(blue dots) and mixed results of significant and nonsignificant ambient water column toxicity based on two or more tests
(yellow dots).

Bifenthrin water column monitoring data were also compared with the 2015 proposed acute
criterion of 0.06 ng/L [6]. Exceedances of the 0.06 ng/L acute value in Figure 13 showed:
(1) there were no exceedances of the 0.06 ng/L acute value for 77% of the sites (554); (2) there
were exceedances of the acute criterion for 9% the sites (63); and (3) there were mixed results of
exceedances and no exceedances for 14% of the sites (104). The percent exceedance calculations
for the 0.01 ng/L proposed chronic criterion in Figure 14 were: (1) there were no exceedances of
the 0.01 ng/L chronic criterion for 77% of the sites (549); (2) there were exceedances of the
chronic criterion for 9% the sites (63); and (3) there were mixed results of exceedances and no
exceedances for 14% of the sites (104). Various categories of exceedances (exceedances, mixed
results and no exceedances) were identical in Figures 13 and 14 thus demonstrating that at
least for bifenthrin water monitoring data based on total concentrations the proposed 0.06 ng/L
52 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 12. California bifenthrin water column monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 that exceeded the 14.4 ng/L fifth centile
based on an SSD using a log-normal distribution (red dots), did not exceed the fifth centile (blue dots) and mixed results of
exceeding and not exceeding the fifth centile based on two or more measurements (yellow dots).

acute criterion and proposed chronic criterion of 0.01 ng/L do not provide any difference in the
level of protection for aquatic life based on the current data set. Typically, the lower chronic
criteria values offer a greater level of protection.
The use of the bifenthrin chronic value for predicting risk has uncertainty given the hydropho-
bic properties of bifenthrin which suggests that this pyrethroid would only remain in the water
column for relatively short periods of time (corresponding with acute exposures) before
partitioning to suspended and dissolved organic matter. However, due to the sorption/desorp-
tion properties of bifenthrin [34], chronic exposures to freely dissolved bifenthrin are certainly
possible in the aquatic environment if benthic taxa remain in the depositional areas in streams
for extended periods of time where these exposures may occur.
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 53
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

Figure 13. California bifenthrin water column monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 that exceeded the 2015 0.06 ng/L
regional board acute criterion (red dots), did not exceed the criterion (blue dots) and mixed results of exceeding and not
exceeding the criterion based on two or more measurements (yellow dots).

A critical uncertainty issue with the comparison of whole water bifenthrin environmental
concentrations and toxicity data derived from laboratory studies (primarily conducted with
clean filtered water) is bioavailability. The bifenthrin measurements from natural whole water
samples in the CEDEN monitoring data set can contain suspended and dissolved organic
carbon matter which can bind bifenthrin and reduce or eliminate bioavailability to aquatic
organisms [35]. Therefore, measurements of bifenthrin from whole water field samples
overestimate the actual exposure concentration (bioavailable dissolved fraction) for resident
taxa. Furthermore, a comparison of the environmental bifenthrin whole water measurements
with toxicity data derived from laboratory filtered water is also an overestimation of ecological
risk since only a small fraction (less than 10%—see [35]) of the environmental concentration is in
the dissolved or bioavailable form. Additional research is recommended using a bioavailability
54 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 14. California bifenthrin water column monitoring sites from 2001 to 2017 that exceeded the 2015 0.01 ng/L
regional board chronic criterion (red dots), did not exceed the chronic value (blue dots) and mixed results of exceeding
and not exceeding the chronic value based on two or more measurements (yellow dots).

equation to convert whole water bifenthrin concentrations to the dissolved fraction so these
dissolved values can be compared with regulatory thresholds.

4. Conclusions

The results from bifenthrin sediment mapping and toxicity evaluations conducted from
2001 to 2017 in California water bodies showed that bifenthrin measurements ranging from
non-detected to 697.4 ng/g @ 1% TOC were available from depositional areas at 982 sites
with concurrent TOC measurements. Thirty-six percent of these sites had measurements
that were below the level of detection. Sediment toxicity data based on Hyalella azteca,
Chironomus dilutus and Eohaustorius estuarius ambient toxicity tests were available for 499
 Spatial Analysis of Bifenthrin Sediment and Water Concentrations in California Waterbodies from 2001 to 2017 55
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76835

sites with concurrent bifenthrin measurements and 43% of these sites showed no significant
toxicity. One percent of TOC normalized bifenthrin measurements reported from 982 sites
showed no significant toxicity at 80% of the sites based on a Hyalella acute value of 6.1 ng/g
while 99.5% of the sites showed no significant toxicity based on a Chironomus acute toxicity
value of 177.5 ng/g. The test species toxicity data (i.e., Hyalella or Chironomus) used to
predict bifenthrin sediment toxicity in the field are critical as the use of Hyalella toxicity
data (a highly sensitive species to bifenthrin) may be overprotective and this species may be
less representative of most California water bodies when compared with Chironomids.
Thirty-six percent of the 244 California sites with nondetected bifenthrin concentrations
had some concurrent significant sediment toxicity thus suggesting that toxicity at these
sites is due to factors other than bifenthrin.
All sediment measurements used in the current bifenthrin analysis were from deposi-
tional areas where bifenthrin is most likely to be measured if sources exist. However,
available sediment mapping data from California streams suggest that depositional areas
are not the dominant type wetted stream bed sediment in these water bodies, but rather
these aquatic systems are dominated by nondepositional areas where bifenthrin is not
likely to be found. Therefore, based on this information, ecological risk from bifenthrin
sediment exposure to resident aquatic life in California water bodies is judged to be low
statewide.

The results from bifenthrin mapping of water column and toxicity data conducted from
2001 to 2017 from California water bodies showed bifenthrin water column measurements
were available from 716 sites and values from 77% of these sites were below the level of
detection. Water column ambient toxicity data based on six different ambient test species
were available for 467 sites with concurrent bifenthrin measurements, and 65% of these
sites showed no significant toxicity. Thirty-one percent of the 429 sites with nondetected
bifenthrin concentrations showed some significant toxicity which suggests that toxicity at
these sites is due to factors other than bifenthrin. A comparison of bifenthrin water column
concentrations from 716 sites with a fifth centile (14.4 ng/L) from an SSD with 17 species
showed no exceedances of this fifth centile at 88% of the sites. A comparison of bifenthrin
water column concentrations from 716 sites using an acute provisional criterion of 0.06 ng/L
or a proposed provisional chronic criterion of 0.01 ng/L showed no exceedances at 77% of
the sites.
The ecological risk from water column exposures of bifenthrin to aquatic life in California
water bodies is generally judged to be low statewide based on the following: (1) relatively
few detected bifenthrin concentrations over a 17-year period (only 16% of the samples); (2) 77%
of the samples did not exceed proposed acute or chronic bifenthrin criterion; (3) the hydropho-
bic properties of bifenthrin (binding to organic matter) eliminate or greatly reduce bioavail-
ability from water exposures to aquatic organism; and (4) comparison of environmental whole
water concentrations of bifenthrin with toxicity values used in the proposed UC Davis criteria
based on filtered (bioavailable) concentrations is an overestimation of ecological risk. Future
research is needed to convert total water bifenthrin measurements to the dissolved phase in
order to accurately compare these values with regulatory thresholds.
56 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge FMC Agricultural Products for sponsoring this study.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare they have no conflict of interest.

Author details

Lenwood W. Hall Jr* and Ronald D. Anderson

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]
University of Maryland, Wye Research and Education Center, Maryland, USA

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 Chapter 4

Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with

Very High Resolution Satellite Images

Ana Cristina Gonçalves and Adélia M. O. Sousa

Additional
Additional information is available
information is available at
at the
the end
end of
of the
the chapter
chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

Abstract
Assessment and monitoring of forest structure is frequently done with absolute density
measures with field forest inventory data and expansion methods. The development of
basal area and the number of trees estimation functions with data derived from very
high spatial resolution satellite images enable their short-term and cost-effective evalu-
ation, allowing also the estimation for the area not requiring extrapolation methods.
The functions of basal area and the number of trees per hectare are based on crown
cover obtained with very high spatial resolution satellite images for two evergreen oaks
and umbrella pine. The three tree species are especially important in the agroforestry
systems of the Mediterranean region. The linear functions fitted for pure stands of the
three species and mixed stands of cork and holm oak and of cork oak and umbrella pine
showed a better performance for basal area than for the number of trees per hectare.
The inclusion of dummy variables for species composition improved the accuracy of
the functions.

Keywords: quickBird image, multi-resolution segmentation, crown horizontal

projection, absolute density measures, regression

1. Introduction

Holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia), cork oak (Quercus suber), and umbrella pine (Pinus pinea) are
three of the most representative species in agroforestry systems in the Mediterranean basin
[1, 2]. Their stands have usually low density, open heterogeneous canopies and as main produc-
tion bark for cork oak and fruit for all [3–5]. They also have other productions, such as agricul-
tural crops, pasture and extensive grazing. Due to the climate variability of the Mediterranean
region, these multiple use systems enable risk dispersion and the sustainability in time [1, 2, 6].

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
62 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Absolute density measures, especially the number of trees and basal area, are referred in silvi-
culture textbooks as a proxy for competition and growing space at tree level and thus for grow-
ing conditions at stand level [7–15]. These measures are reported as a single value per stand, as
the sum of the tree values, reported for a standard area, usually the hectare [7, 13, 16–19], and
have the advantage of enabling comparison between different stands [7–15].
The conventional approach to calculate the number of trees and basal area is using field plots
of forest inventories, which have a statistical sampling design and an expansion factor when
working on an area basis [20–25]. Though a high accuracy is attained at field inventory plots,
they have disadvantages related to the area sampled and the extrapolation methods needed
for the evaluation on an area basis.

Remote sensing-derived data have been used to estimate both the number of trees [26–33] and
basal area [26, 29, 30, 32, 34–40]. The advantages are the estimation for small and large areas
[25, 41–43]; enabling time series analysis in short time cycles [25, 42]; data collection at differ-
ent scales, depending on the imagery spatial resolution [42, 43]; and enabling the evaluation
of the area not requiring extrapolation methods [44–49]. The disadvantages are related to the
imagery spatial resolution; accuracy decreases with the increase of the pixel size [50–52].

2. Materials and methods

2.1. Satellite images and inventory data

Two satellite images were acquired as four-band products (Blue, Green, Red and Near-
Infrared), with the bands pan-sharpened with the UNB algorithm [53]. The image from
QuickBird satellite (hereafter Mora) was collected in August 2006, has an area of 80 km2 (cen-
tral coordinate 8°4′53.98”W and 38°51′16.12”N) and a spatial resolution of 0.7 m. The image
from WorldView-2 satellite (hereafter Alcácer) was collected in June 2011, has an area of
35 km2 (central coordinate 8°40′28.20”W and 38°27′45.71”N) and has a spatial resolution of
0.5 m. The forest area is composed of holm oak and cork oak in the former and cork oak and
umbrella pine in the latter.
The images were orthorectified, georeferenced and atmospherically corrected. Ortho-rectification
was carried out with the rational polynomial coefficient model (RCP) using the image metadata
and ASTER GDEM digital elevation model (resolution 30 m) in Envi 4.8 [54]. For georeferencing
the images, field data points obtained with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) were used,
which resulted in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.49 m for Mora and 0.30 m for Alcácer.
Atmospheric correction was done using the image digital number for top of atmosphere (ToA)
reflectance to convert it to soil level reflectance using dark-object subtraction method [55].
From each image a vegetation mask per specie by a set of sequential steps was derived, using
object-oriented analysis [56, 57]. Contrast split segmentation based on the normalized differ-
ence vegetation index image (NDVI, [58] in eCognition, version 8.0.1 [59]) was used to isolate
tree crowns, resulting in a vegetation mask. In the second step multi-resolution segmentation
 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very High Resolution Satellite Images 63
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

[60] enabled the separation of the vegetation mask in different objects, using an algorithm
with scale, shape and compactness as splitting parameters. The third step used the nearest
neighbor algorithm to classify the objects per tree specie, in Weka 3.8.0 software [61], based
on the descriptive statistics of the bands and on vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, SAVI, and SR).

2.2. Inventory data

Each image was divided into a square grid, a function of their resolution, 65 × 65 pixels
(45.5 × 45.5 m, 2070.25 m2) for Mora and 90 × 90 pixels (45 × 45 m, 2025 m2) for Alcácer. The
grid area is similar to other studies with very high spatial resolution satellite images (e.g.,
[62]). Composition and crown cover (defined as the percent ratio between crown horizontal
projection and grid area) were derived from the vegetation mask per specie using ArcGIS
version 10 [63]. The grids were classified as monospecies if only one specie was present and
multispecies otherwise. To design forest inventory, crown cover was grouped in three strata
(10–30, 30–50 and >50%) and a random stratified sampling by proportional allocation was
applied.

The field surveys took place in 2011 in Mora and 2013–2014 in Alcácer, measuring 17, 24 and
32 monospecies plots of holm oak (QR), cork oak (QS) and umbrella pine (PP), respectively,
and 23 and 49 multispecies plots of holm oak and cork oak (QRQS) and cork oak and umbrella
pine (QSPP), respectively. The total number of plots is 145. The main stand was defined as all
individuals with diameter at breast height equal or larger than 6 cm for holm and cork oaks
and 5 cm for umbrella pine. In each plot, for the main stand, diameter at breast height, total
height and four crown radii (directions in north, south, east and west) were measured [16], as
well as recorded tree location by GNSS. The number of trees per hectare (N) was defined as
the sum of all individuals of the main stand per plot, scaled to a reference area, the hectare.
Basal area per hectare (G) was defined as the sum of the sectional area of all the trees of the
main stand in the plot, scaled to a reference area, the hectare [7, 16].

2.3. Statistical analysis

In the development of the functions for the number of trees and basal area per hectare, four
types of functions were considered (Figure 1): (i) per composition classes (QR, QS, PP, QRQS
and QSPP); (ii) not considering composition; (iii) considering crown cover per specie; and (iv)
considering composition as dummy variables. Dummy variables were defined as a dicho-
tomic variable where 1 refers to a specific composition (QR, QS, PP, QRQS or QSPP) and 0 to
the other compositions. For (i) and (ii) the functions were fitted using ordinary least square
linear regression through the origin (Eq. (1), where D is N or G, CC the crown cover and α the
regression coefficient) and for (iii) and (iv) multiple linear regression with stepwise method
and AIC as selection criteria (Eq. (2), where α and β are regression coefficients, d the dummy
variables, i = QR, QS and PP and j = QR, QS, PP, QRQS and QSPP). For multiple regression,
multicolinearity among explanatory variables was analyzed with the variance inflation fac-
tor (VIF), where no serious multicoliniarity is expected for VIF ≤ 10 [64, 65]. As suggested
by several authors (e.g., [66, 67]) the sum of squares of the residuals (SQR), the coefficient of
64 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 1. Model flow diagram (where CHP the crown horizontal projection in m2, CC the crown cover, QR holm oak, QS
cork oak, PP umbrella pine, and p the plot).

determination (R2) and the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2aj) were used to evaluate
the statistical properties of the models.

Whenever an independent data set is not available for model validation, re-sampling or jack-
knifing methods are recommended. One of these methods uses PRESS residuals, calculated as
the difference between the observed and the estimated value of a variable (in this study N or
G), as a cross-validation statistic [68–70], which is considered also to improve reliability in the
accuracy assessment [43]. PRESS residuals are attained by fitting the model iteratively k times
with n-1 observations (where n is the total number of observations) guaranteeing their inde-
pendence [68–70]. The validation of the models was tested for bias and precision—the former
with the mean of the PRESS residuals (Eq. (3), where PRESSrm is the mean of the PRESS
residuals, y the observed value, ŷ the estimated value and i the number of the observation)
and the latter with the mean of the absolute PRESS residuals values (PRESSram, Eq. (4)). To
the former was added the analysis of the 5th and 95th percentile of the PRESS residuals [70].
Heteroscedasticity associated with the error term was evaluated graphically with the plots
of the studentized residuals and the estimated values and the normality of the studentized
residuals with normal quantile-quantile plots and Shapiro Wilk normality test, for a prob-
ability level of 0.001 [68, 71]. To enable comparison with other studies (e.g., [36]), the relative
root mean square error (RMSEr, Eq. (5)) was also computed. The statistical analysis was done
using R statistical software [72].

D = α × CC (1)
 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very High Resolution Satellite Images 65
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

D = αi × CCi + βj × dj (2)

∑i=1(yi − ŷ i,−1)
n

PRESSrm = __________
n (3)

∑i=1 yi − ŷ i,−1
| |
n

PRESSram = _________
n (4)

_________

√ ∑i=1 (yi − ŷ i) 2
n

_________
n
RMSE = r
________
y¯ × 100 (5)

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Satellite image analysis

The vegetation mask per species accuracy resulting from the multi-resolution and object-
oriented classification, illustrated in Figure 2, depends on several factors, namely the forest
tree density, the limits between forest trees and other land uses, image date, forest tree spe-
cies reflectance and crown shape. Stands with low density and isolated forest trees, such as
holm oak, cork oak and umbrella pine in agroforestry systems, enable the distinction and
separation of the tree crowns with accuracy in very high spatial resolution satellite images
(e.g., [62]), minimizing the confounding effects of shadow pixels which occur in tree crowns
at closer spacings [73]. Conversely, the diffused boundaries between forest tree crowns and
other land uses can decrease classification accuracy [74]. Thus image dates with the highest
contrast between different land uses, especially between herbaceous vegetation and forest
trees, such as the summer (June–August) in the Mediterranean region, produce the smallest
confounding influence [75, 76]. The other two variables that influence accuracy of the vegeta-
tion mask per species are the reflectance similarity between species and crown shapes, the
more similar the lower the accuracy. The forest areas of Mora and Alcácer are composed pre-
dominantly of isolated trees, though some clusters occur, and the images were acquired in the
dry summer period (June and August), thus with high contrast between the forest trees and
the other land uses, especially the forest understory that was composed of soil and dry herba-
ceous vegetation. Regarding reflectance and crown shape, holm oak and cork oak have larger
similarities with wide ranges of reflectance and an irregular crown shape when compared to
umbrella pine that has a narrower reflectance range and nearly circular crowns. Nonetheless,
the spectral signatures of the tree species are different enough to enable a good classification
[44, 46–49]. The accuracy evaluated with Kappa statistic [77, 78] encountered true positives
for 90% of the holm oak and 87% of the cork oak for Mora and 98% of the umbrella pine and
74% of the cork oak for Alcácer.
66 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 2. Illustration of vegetation mask for two small areas (left) Mora (cork and holm oak) and (right) Alcácer (cork
oak and umbrella pine).

3.2. Number of trees and basal area functions

The variability for N is larger than for G and for QS, QRQS and QSPP than for QR and PP,
denoted by the larger coefficient of variation (Table 1 and Figure 3). The number of trees and
their spatial distribution in the stand determine their growing space and the tree crown area
is also a function of the species epinastic control [12] and spacing, with crown closure origi-
nating crown shyness [14], thus unbalancing the relation between crown cover and basal area
and crown cover and number of trees. Holm oak, cork oak and umbrella pine have, especially
in adult trees, weak epinastic control and are shade intolerant [5, 79], thus justifying the wide
variability observed in the plots. However, positive correlations are observed for CC and G
for all plots (0.72), stronger for QR (0.86) and QSPP (0.85) and weaker for QS and PP (0.66
each) and QRQS (0.62). These results are expected due to the almost direct relation between
crown and stem diameters [80, 81]. Conversely, the correlation between CC and N is weaker
when compared to the former. Positive correlations are found for all plots (0.47), stronger for
QS (0.72), QR (0.57) and QSPP (0.54) and weaker for QRQS (0.36) and no correlation for PP
(−0.04). The number of trees per hectare is frequently associated with the individual stems
and the stage of development and the stand structure [7–15], giving rise to a higher variability
in the number of trees (Figure 4).

In general, for the functions fitted for all composition classes (Table 2), there is an improve-
ment in the statistical properties of the models from those not considering composition (N3
and G3) to those that included it as crown cover per specie (N2 and G2), with the best prop-
erties attained by those with composition as dummy variables (N1 and G1). For the number
of trees, a reduction of −27.4% for SQR and an increase of 3.2% for R2aj from N3 to N1, a
reduction of −18.0% for SQR and an increase of 2.1% for R2aj from N2 to N1 and a reduction
 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very High Resolution Satellite Images 67
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

Min Max Mean SD CV Min Max Mean SD CV

(%) (%)
All QR

N 5 140 67 28.0 42.4 29 116 72 27 37.1

G (m ha )
2 −1
2.6 18.2 8.9 3.3 37.5 4.0 11.1 6.7 2.1 32.0

CC (%) 9.7 72.6 37.1 15.1 40.6 13.7 67.6 37.6 15.9 42.3

PHC (m ) 2
195.8 1470.0 756.1 306.5 40.5 284.2 1399.0 777.7 329.2 42.3

QS PP

N 5 135 60 33 54.2 5 119 72 23 32.4

G (m ha )
2 −1
5.2 15.4 9.1 2.8 30.7 3.8 15.9 9.5 2.6 27.5

CC (%) 13.4 70.5 35.3 14.0 39.7 13.0 66.7 40.5 17.1 42.3

PHC (m2) 271.3 1460.2 723.9 293.0 40.5 263.5 1350.3 819.1 346.7 42.3

QRQS QSPP

N 19 140 62 29 47.7 15 123 69 30 43.1

G (m2 ha−1) 2.6 14.7 6.7 2.7 40.3 2.9 18.2 10.3 3.7 36.0

CC (%) 14.3 58.8 29.4 11.4 38.6 9.7 72.6 39.8 14.5 36.5

PHC (m ) 2
296.9 1216.7 607.8 233.6 38.4 195.8 1470.0 804.9 293.9 36.5

Table 1. Descriptive statistics per composition classes (where N is the number of trees per hectare, G the basal area per
hectare, CC the crown cover calculated with satellite data, PHC crown horizontal projection, max the maximum, min the
minimum, SD the standard variation and CV the coefficient of variation).

of −8.0% for SQR and an increase of 1.0% for R2aj from N3 to N2 was observed. For basal area
a reduction of −60.0% for SQR and an increase of 2.7% for R2aj from G3 to G1, a reduction
of −53.5% for SQR and an increase of 2.5% for R2aj from G2 to G1 and a reduction of −4.3%
for SQR and an increase of 0.2% for R2aj from G2 to G3 was observed. This is reflected in the
better function performance of N1 or G1 when compared with N2 and N3 or G2 and G3.
Bias is the lowest for N1 and G1 while precision is similar for all functions. The better sta-
tistical properties of N1 and G1 when compared with N3 and G3 could be, at least partially,
explained by the inclusion of the composition variable in the functions as N and G have dif-
ferent behavior per composition classes (cf. Table 2). Comparing N1 and N2 or G1 and G2,
the better performance of N1 and G1 can be explained by the relations between crown cover
and the number of trees or basal area, for the different composition classes and probably by
the influence of the clusters of mixed trees. When comparing N1 or G1, with the functions
per composition class (Ni or Gi, i = 4,5,6,7,8), better model statistical properties are attained
for N4 and N5 and G8 and G4, which correspond to the composition classes with smaller
variability between CC and N and G (cf. Table 2), respectively. Nonetheless, in general, bias
is larger for the number of trees than for the basal area. Similar results were attained for
above-ground biomass functions with crown horizontal projection as an explanatory vari-
able [44–46, 49]. The regression coefficients are presented in Eqs. (6)–(9) and Table 3.
68 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 3. Boxplots of N and G for all plots and per composition class.

Figure 4. Crown cover and number of trees and basal area per composition class.
 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very High Resolution Satellite Images 69
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

Model Independent SQR R2 R2aj PRESSrm PRESSram Percentile RMSEr

variables
5th 95th
N

N1 CC, dQR, 89,148 0.884 0.879 0.002 0.828 −1.362 1.920 37.0
dQS, dPP,
dQRQS,
dQSPP
N2 CCQR, 105,215 0.863 0.860 0.145 0.794 −1.178 1.966 40.1
CCQS, CCPP
N3 CC 113,595 0.852 0.851 0.172 0.802 −1.105 2.062 41.7
N4 CCQR 9870 0.900 0.893 0.196 0.912 −1.445 1.404 33.7
N5 CCQS 11,176 0.899 0.895 0.014 0.862 −1.146 1.873 35.9
N6 CCPP 37,293 0.795 0.788 0.300 0.776 −0.667 2.113 47.6
N7 CCQRQS 19,842 0.836 0.830 0.148 0.748 −1.303 1.873 44.6
N8 CCQSPP 31,382 0.878 0.875 0.111 0.833 −1.227 1.969 38.0
G
G1 CC, dQR, 585 0.955 0.953 0.001 0.794 −1.528 1.763 22.7
dQS, dPP,
dQRQS,
dQSPP
G2 CCQR, 898 0.931 0.929 0.171 0.806 −1.690 1.729 28.1
CCQS, CCPP
G3 CC 936 0.928 0.927 0.162 0.810 −1.727 1.661 28.7
G4 CCQR 39 0.953 0.950 0.237 0.899 −1.301 1.602 22.8
G5 CCQS 142 0.935 0.932 0.202 0.883 −1.882 1.356 26.6
G6 CCPP 267 0.913 0.910 0.277 0.873 −1.304 1.627 30.5
G7 CCQRQS 136 0.898 0.894 0.136 0.805 −1.168 2.104 34.3
G8 CCQSPP 162 0.971 0.970 0.098 0.776 −1.432 1.654 18.1

Table 2. Statistical properties of the fitted functions (where CC is the crown cover, QR Quercus rotundifolia, QS Querus
suber, PP Pinus pinea and d the dummy variable).

Model α Model α
N3 1.68195 G3 0.22776
N4 1.7749 G4 0.16797
N5 1.7041 G5 0.2436
N6 1.5324 G6 0.21361
N7 1.9839 G7 0.21583
N8 1.65806 G8 0.255849

Table 3. Regression coefficients of the N and G functions.

70 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 5. Studentized residuals (a) and normal probability (b) graphics for N1, N2, and N3.

N1 = 0.8982 × CC + 37.7851 × dQR + 28.3933 × dQS + 35.4451 × dPP

(6)
+ 35.4373 × dQRQS + 33.1026 × dQSPP

N2 = 1.7334 × CCQR + 2.03536 × CCQS + 1.50642 × CCPP (7)

 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very High Resolution Satellite Images 71
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

Figure 6. Studentized residuals (a) and normal probability (b) graphics for G1, G2, and G3.

G1 = 0.14992 × CC + 1.04399 × dQR + 3.84375 × dQS + 3.39116 × dPP

(8)
+ 2.25474 × dQRQS + 4.37992 × dQSPP

G2 = 0.19954 × CCQR + 0.2234 × CCQS + 0.237722 × CCPP (9)

72 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

The coefficient of determination of the functions to estimate the number of trees per hectare
with explanatory variables derived from satellite data is rather variable from 0.38 to 0.88
[26, 29, 30, 32]; an even wider variation is found for the functions to estimate the basal area
per hectare, from 0.07 to 0.92 [26, 29, 30, 32, 35, 40]. In general, the functions for N and G
estimation developed in this study have higher R2 than those of the aforementioned studies.
RMSEr decreases from N3 and G3 to N1 and G1 (Table 2) and is smaller than that attained
value for the basal area as studied by reference Hyvönen et al. [36] (46–53%) and Günlü et al.
[40] (29–34%).

For N1, N2, G1 and G2, no serious multicoliniarity is expected as VIF for all explanatory
variables is smaller than 7.7. The studentized residuals of N1, N2, N3, G1, G2 and G3 do
not show systematic variations; the normal probability graphs approach the straight line
(Figures 5 and 6), thought with deviations in the extremes, which is corroborated by the
residuals not meeting normality (all, p < 0.001). Similar results were attained for N3–N8 and
G4–G8.

4. Conclusions

The vegetation mask per species from very high-resolution satellite images enables deriving
accurately crown cover. In spite of the similarities between holm oak, cork oak and umbrella
pine, the methods of multi-segmentation and object-oriented classification allow their distinc-
tion with accuracy.

The functions with the best performances for the number of trees per hectare and basal area
per hectare for the three species were attained with the explanatory variable crown cover and
composition classes as dummy variables.

The agroforestry systems in general, and those of holm oak, cork oak and umbrella pine in
particular, have high spatial variability which makes these functions well suited to evaluate
and monitor their stands in space and time.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all the forest producers for permission to undertake forest
inventory; Paulo Mesquita for image processing; and Carla Coelho, David Gomes and Pedro
Antunes for their fieldwork. The work was financed by Programa Operativo de Cooperação
Transfronteiriço Espanha–Portugal (POCTEP), project Altercexa–Medidas de Adaptación
y Mitigación del Cambio Climático a Través del Impulso de las Energías Alternativas en
Centro, Alentejo y Extremadura (Refª 0317_Altercexa_I_4_E and 0406_ALTERCEXA_II_4_E),
TrustEE–innovative market based Trust for Energy Efficiency investments in industry (Project
ID: H2020–696140) and National Funds through FCT–Foundation for Science and Technology
under the Project UID/AGR/00115/2013.
 Absolute Density Measures Estimation Functions with Very High Resolution Satellite Images 73
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76817

Conflict of interest

Both authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Author details

Ana Cristina Gonçalves* and Adélia M. O. Sousa

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]
Department of Rural Engineering, School of Sciences and Technology, Institute of
Mediterranean Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (ICAAM), Institute of Research and
Advanced Information (IIFA), University of Évora, Évora, Portugal

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 Chapter 5

Evaluating
Evaluating the
the Effectiveness
Effectiveness of
of CCTV
CCTV in
in Baltimore,
Baltimore,
Maryland
Maryland

Brian
Brian Ways
Ways and
and Brooks
Brooks C.
C. Pearson
Pearson

Additional information
Additional information is
is available
available at
at the
the end
end of
of the
the chapter
chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79076

Abstract

This report reviews the results of an investigation into the effectiveness of public surveil­
lance systems in Cherry Hill, Baltimore City, Maryland. Its chief objective is to discern
whether closed circuit television (CCTV) cameras are a successful crime control measure
and whether their implementation displaced crime or generated a diffusion of benefits to
the areas outside a camera’s viewshed. Previous research on the efficacy of CCTV leaves
much to be desired, and the debate is still inconclusive. Thus, this study attempts to move
toward new ways of analyzing crime data gathered pre- and post-implementation of
cameras in a given target area. To conduct this research, the investigation utilizes a com­
bination of existing and new geographical information systems (GIS) spatial techniques
to visualize and measure crime distribution and uses light detection and ranging (LiDAR)
data to produce a precise mapping of a camera’s line of sight. Findings from each analyti­
cal method are compared, contrasted, and combined to provide rounded results. These
findings suggest that the implementation of GIS techniques in crime mapping have huge
potential and could provide innovative uses for CCTV within law enforcement crime
control programs.

Keywords: GIS, CCTV, crime displacement, crime, LiDAR, spatial, crime distributions,
surveillance, WDQ analysis, spatial analysis, hot spot analysis, viewshed analysis, crime
mapping

1. Introduction

Crime can be defined as a type of action that is considered wrong and punishable by society
[1], although some have argued that the term “crime” does not have any basic or widely
accepted definition [2]. Crimes of various types happen every day in the world, and each

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
80 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

event occurs at an exact geographical location. Whether it is the victim’s physical location, a
cybercrime IP address, or a computer where data are stored, all crime has a connection to a
place. Thus, with the study of crime, emerges the field of crime mapping. Crime mapping has
applications to many fields, including law enforcement and geographic information systems.
The technology used to map crime can also be employed to monitor, reduce, and/or displace
criminal activities. One such example is the use of closed circuit television (CCTV). There are
many different arguments and opinions as to whether CCTV cameras actually help to reduce
crime or whether they merely displace crime around the corner.
CCTV cameras are currently used in the United States and in other parts of the world [3]
with the intention of reducing criminal activity in large urban centers. The city of Baltimore
has a history of high crime rates. Of late, this has been directly addressed by one of the most
extensive camera systems in the United States, in the hope of improving the lives of citizens
and the economic status of the city [4]. However, systematic studies to assess the validity of
this approach have not yet been published [5]. For this reason, Baltimore City’s extensive use
of CCTVs renders it a suitable candidate to determine whether there is a correlation between
the implementation of CCTVs and a decrease in criminal activity. More specifically, this study
employs impact analysis, as well as geostatistical methods and theory, to characterize any
positive/negative associations of crime pattern alterations in CCTV camera viewshed areas in
Baltimore. This investigation has the potential to greatly improve our general understanding
of the role that CCTV devices play in crime control. It also provides informed recommenda­
tions to justify the investment and systematic use of these devices to improve safety in large
urban centers. Moreover, this study will potentially increase community awareness of the
reliability of crime cameras and thereby influence other law enforcement agencies to follow
in Baltimore’s footsteps.

Baltimore has had a well-documented history of widespread criminal activity. In 1978, the
Baltimore Police Department (BPD) reported 197 homicides, a number that then almost tripled
by 1993 to 353 homicides. As recently as 2013, a total of 235 murders were documented in the
city. Baltimore’s rate of violent crime is above the nation’s average, as national violent crime
in 2009 summed to 1,318,398 incidents, an equivalent rate of 0.4 incidents per 100 people [6].
In 2003, Baltimore was ranked seventh in total violent crime in the United States, experiencing
a total of 11,183 violent crimes and 48,653 total crimes [7].
In an attempt to control and reduce criminal activity, in September of 1995, the Baltimore
Police Department was awarded the $75,000 federal Byrne Memorial Grant to start a video
control project [5]. The overall expectations for the project were to decrease violence in the
downtown business district and to increase business in downtown centers which had become
unpopular due to high criminal activity [5]. Sixteen fixed position cameras were installed for
$47,000 to view sidewalks, public parks, and streets, with the ultimate goal of monitoring
crime activities [5]. Subsequently, in 2004, the mayor of Baltimore visited London and real­
ized that public surveillance technology may help in crime solution and prevention [4]. In
CCTV, he hoped for a new and effective combatant to the city’s high crime rates.

Currently, the City of Baltimore has one of the most extensive camera systems in the United
States. The City has spent over $16 million in acquisition, installation, and maintenance of the
 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 81
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79076

CCTV system. Most of the funding came from federal homeland security grants. The cameras
are composed of both fixed- and hard-wired systems and portable units, or Police Observation
Devices (PODS). PODS are camera units that can be easily moved around and set up, but foot­
age must be downloaded directly from each digital recording system for post-incident review
and analysis [4]. The fixed hardwired systems, on the other hand, are mounted at certain loca­
tions and monitored by police officers from a centralized watch center. Officers at the watch
center can zoom, pan, and follow a moving object. One Baltimore citizen stated that “From
time to time, thanks to surveillance camera, crooks are caught in the act. It helps put down
some of the crime that’s going on in the area” [8]. The general consensus among Baltimore
citizens who live near one of the camera locations is that the system provides a certain degree
of increased comfort [5]. Thus, CCTV cameras, including PODS, are useful tools that allow us
to characterize and deter criminal activity, serving the community directly.

2. Materials and methods

The methods used to determine whether CCTV cameras displace crime, decrease its frequency,
or leave it unchanged are detailed in the following sections. This methodology involves both
descriptive and inferential geographical statistics to evaluate criminal instances in Baltimore
city, by using the procedures of data collection, study area identification, spatial analysis
tools, map creation, and data analysis. Also examined are descriptive statistics for overall
crime, significant changes in crime rates, and if these changes are due to the crime cameras.

3. Data collection

This study uses data collected by the Baltimore City Police Department (BPD). In order to
obtain the required data for this study, a request letter was sent to the commissioner of BPD,
Mr. Anthony W. Batts. Once the commissioner approved the release of requested data, a
subsequent formal request to export the data was sent to the BPD Information Technology
Department. The BPD provided camera locations with installation dates for all cameras
installed throughout the city from 2005 to 2014. Additionally, BPD provided victim-based
incident crime data for the period of January 2009 through January 2015 for the entire city
of Baltimore. The crime camera data were given in a spatial events file used in GIS software
(shapefile format), which contains the field attributes of camera number, location, project
type, date installed, latitude, and longitude. BPD was not able to supply victim-based incident
crime data from the year January 2003 to January 2009 due to a fire in the police department.
Alternatively, the victim-based incident crime data from January 2003 to January 2009 were
obtained from John Hopkins University GIS department’s library database. The attributes
that came with this data were nearly identical.

The data were collected by BPD using protocol GPS handheld devices to record the exact
location of each incident. Additionally, BPD uses satellite imagery to record the latitude and
longitude coordinates of the precise location of the crime for the crime camera data. The data
82 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

are projected to Maryland’s NAD83 state plane coordinate system. The crime events are
recorded by BPD using CitiStat, which is an extension of the CompStat software used by the
entire city of Baltimore. CitiStat was originally a way for the city to handle complaints but
has evolved into a program capable of handling many issues within the city, such as policing,
homelessness, public works, and waste management. The data in CompStat are collected by
the minute and analyzed, then presented in a visual form by BPD [9]. BPD has been working
to incorporate the crime cameras into CompStat to make it easier to identify suspects whose
criminal activity was recorded by the cameras [4].

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were collected from the US Geological Survey
(USGS) website and was captured by USGS for Baltimore City in 2008. LiDAR is a type of
remote sensing technology that can measure distance by lighting up a target area with a laser,
then computing the reflected light [10]. LiDAR systems collect elevation (z) and positional
(x, y) data for the reflected objects scanned by the laser under an aircraft, which can create
three-dimensional generations of the landscape with multipoints [11]. This file was down­
loaded from USGS’s website and then converted into multipoint data for this study using
Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcMap.

4. Study areas

Following the work of Bowers and Johnson [12], we measured the frequency of crimes that
occurred 5 years prior to and 5 years after the installation of cameras in given areas. The
cameras used in this study were installed in Baltimore during the month of February in 2008.
Camera cluster analysis (CCA) provides additional evaluation of appropriate areas for this
study, where cameras have overlapping buffers [13]. It is important that these camera clusters
are adequately distanced from individual cameras, to avoid a buffer zone that could conflict
with the analysis [13]. A buffer is an area around a map feature that is measured in units of
distance or time (ESRI GIS Dictionary, n.d).

Theoretically, there is no reason to examine displacement of crime if crime in the target area
has not changed over time [13] because the results would not show any significance. As illus­
trated in Map 1, downtown Baltimore City is made up of 50 city blocks, which range from
Center Street to Camden Street and from Green Street to Cathedral Street with a camera in
nearly every intersection [13]. The neighborhood of Cherry Hill was chosen for this study as
crime data was available from BPD for 5 years prior to installation in 2008 and 5 years post-
installation. Cherry Hill as seen in Figure 6 is located on the southwest border of Baltimore
City and is mostly positioned around an outer edge of the Chesapeake Bay estuary. Cherry
Hill’s population consisted of 96% African American in 2000 and 94.6% in 2010, compared to
64% in the city. There was a total population of approximately 7772 in 2000 and 8367 in 2010.
Cherry Hill’s housing consists of low-income public housing, including the largest public
housing development in the city. It is a dense urban residential neighborhood. The median
rent is $442 in 2000, which is comparatively lower than the city as seen in Table 1. Minimal
gentrification has taken place during this study’s time period, based on the census data. The
number of nonfatal shootings per 10,000 residents in Cherry Hill is at a rate of 96.3 compared
 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 83
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Figure 1. WDQ equation.

to Baltimore City at 46 between the years 2005 to 2009 [14]. Baltimore City’s level of violent
crime is much higher than the national average: violent crimes were reported at a rate of
1,318,398 or 0.4 incidents per 100 people in 2009 (Figure 1) [7].

5. WDQ and DiD analysis

This study assesses the hypothesis that the presence of the CCTV crime camera decreases the rate
of crime within the visibility of the cameras. An impact analysis test is used to examine the valid­
ity of the crime cameras in Baltimore City for crime distribution. In order to perform the weighted
displacement quotient (WDQ) and difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, the following steps
were implemented: (1) buffer zones were assigned around the individual selected crime cameras
in the study area, (2) displacement was determined using concentric buffer zones, thus allowing
for a distinction between a decrease in displacement and the influence of diffusion [12] buffer
zones to be implemented to capture the presence of displacement or any change or potential
displacement for the crime distribution.
The WDQ was computed using the GIS software ESRI ArcMap (Standard Desktop version
10.2.2) to produce three concentric buffer zones that are placed around each individual CCTV
crime camera using the “buffer” tool in the geoprocessing toolbar. The size of each class of buf­
fer is determined by the BPD’s internal requirements for crime analysis of CCTV effectiveness
84 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

for 28 days before and after the camera installation period. Buffer zone “A” represents the
project area set at a 0.05 mile radius, buffer zone “B” represents displacement area with a 0.1
mile radius, and buffer zone “C” represents the control area with a 0.2 mile radius. Buffer
zone “B” accounts for a proportion of crime committed in buffer zone “C.” Displacement of
crime is shown by movement of crime sites; area “B” should increase, while crime in buffer
zone “A” should decrease. If the results of the buffer WDQ analysis are positive, then there is
sufficient evidence for diffusion of benefits; if the results are negative, displacement of crime
may be more likely. This analysis is a type of interpretation of the WDQ. Thus, WDQ is used
as an indicator of potential diffusion of benefits and displacement of crime prior to and post-
camera installation within the target area of the crime camera buffers. WDQ values can be
inferior, equal to or greater than 0 and can be used to indicate whether diffusion of benefits of
spatial displacement has occurred.

The crime data is separated into six categories: grand theft auto, larceny, robbery, assault,
rape, and homicides. Data is then spatially joined to the buffer zones using GIS before being
exported into individual feature classes in the project geodatabase. A report generated by
ArcMap arranges the crimes within each buffer zone in a tabular format to further visualize
the data for pattern analysis. The crime codes are generalized for each crime into one category
(e.g., all types of robbery are placed into one category). This is to maintain consistency and
to reduce error. The data were linked in ArcGIS using a spatial join to count the number of
different crimes for each buffer. A report with charts was subsequently developed to eas­
ily visualize these findings. Additionally, a percentage of change was calculated from before
and after the comparison. An additional chart was made to visualize the percentage change.
Finally, a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) is calculated to quantitatively measure the amount
of displacement and diffusion of benefits and to determine how much impact the crime cam­
eras have in the distribution of crime beyond the visibility of the camera and into surrounding
areas. In this study, DiD was used to compute the average percentage increase or decrease
for displacement within the Baltimore City CCTV crime camera’s visibility zone, taking the
values for buffer zone “A” and subtracting them from the values from buffer zone “C”.

6. Spatial analysis and map creation

Tools used to visually display the patterns of CCTV crime camera distribution in Baltimore
City consist of spatial analyses and map generations. Environmental Systems Research
Institute’s (ESRI) ArcGIS ArcMap Desktop Standard 10.2.2 is used in this study to perform
these two functions. Spatial data included in the project are: crime camera locations, crime
events, streets where crimes occurred, neighborhood boundaries, digital elevation model,
Bing aerial base map, traffic lights, neighborhood boundaries, buildings, county boundaries,
and municipality boundaries. GIS software is employed in this study to create maps and to
implement spatial analysis tools to evaluate whether the presence of the CCTV crime camera
decreases the rate of crime within the visibility of the cameras. All geographic files for the
entire study are assembled into an ArcCatalog Geodatabase. To properly map the crime data
 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 85
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from the cameras in Baltimore City using crime mapping, hot spots must be identified. The
following type of spatial analysis tools and scripts were used to identify hot spots in ESRI
ArcMap: fishnet, spatial join, incremental spatial auto-correlation, and optimized hot spot
analysis. In order to characterize the occurrence of crime diffusion of benefits and displace­
ment, hot spot analysis maps are created.

The process to create these maps required the determination of a grid size for the aggregated
crime data up to 5 years before and 5 years after the installation. The tool in ArcMap to cre­
ate a grid is Fishnet. In order to determine the appropriate grid size for the crime data, the
1
__

formula (__ [15] is used, where A represents the study area, the Cherry Hill neighborhood,
2
A
N)
and N is the number of crime incidents.

Subsequently, the number of incidents within each grid cell is calculated in ArcMap using
the spatial join tool. The incremental spatial auto-correlation tool is then used in ArcMap to
determine the fixed distance band, which uses a critical distance to decide what neighbors
to use in the grid cells. This ensures that the scale of the analysis will not change and will be
consistent across the study area. Every feature within a fixed distance is included, and every
feature outside that distance is excluded. The fixed distance band is ideal for point data, as
it ensures that all points have a neighbor. The tool performs the Global Moran’s I statistic
for a series of increasing distances to measure the amount of clustering for each distance.
The output of the incremental spatial auto-correlation tool will produce a report and a graph
of “Z-scores” at each distance. The peak value of the z-score distance is used for the fixed
band distance value. Then the optimized hot spot tool will be used to produce the “Z-scores”
and p-values of the crime data. A small p-value and high “Z-score” will indicate a substantial
hotspot. Alternatively, a low “Z-score” and small p-value will show a significant cold spot. A
“Z-score” near zero means minimal or no spatial clustering. The optimized hot spot analysis
tool uses the hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) tool using parameters from the count of the
crime incidents in each grid cell from the fishnet tool with the spatial join. The output of
this tool creates a “Z-score”, p-value and GI_Bin result for each feature. The GI_Bin identifies
hotspots corrected for multiple testing and spatial dependences suing the false discovery rate
(FDR) method.

This study also uses the spatial analysis method for calculating the viewshed of the crime
cameras, using the viewshed analysis tool in ArcMap. The LiDAR data in the study area is
converted into a multipoint using ArcMap. The multipoint is then converted into a raster
using ArcMap point to raster tool, which will create a raster elevation model. The parameter
used in the analysis for the viewshed of the crime cameras is the crime camera height of
25 feet. This is called the offset, the vertical distance in surface units to be added to the z-value
of the location of the surface. In this case, it is called OFFSETA, which adds the vertical dis­
tance to the z-value of the observation point. A viewshed analysis requires two input data sets,
usually a point layer of viewpoints and an input of a DEM or TIN, which represents the land
surface [16]. In this case, the inputs for the tool are the raster elevation model derived from the
LiDAR data and the Cherry Hill crime camera points. The result of the viewshed analysis is a
raster that categorizes cells into the visible and nonvisible classes [16].
86 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

7. WDQ and DiD analysis results

The WDQ Chart as seen in Figure 2 displays the amount of each crime incident before the
installment of the crime camera and after. These reported crime incident totals for each buffer
area are variables to produce the WDQ results.

It is worth noting that in 2008, the “Before” column displays a low crime incidence value,
due to crime taking place in the month prior to installation in February. The “After” column

Figure 2. WDQ count chart.

 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 87
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indicates crimes committed after installation in 2008. This chart was used to produce a trend
graph as seen in Figure 3. The intervention line as seen in Figure 3 displays when the cam­
eras were installed in Cherry Hill at the end of February 2008. This graph shows the crime
trend from 2003 to 2014. Overall, the average number of crimes has increased slightly, but not
appreciably.

Results from the WDQ seen in Figure 4 show that post camera installation, the reported
crime incidents in the target buffer area (A) increased by 29%. The reported crime inci­
dents in the buffer area (B) increased by 10%. In the control buffer area (C) the reported
crime incidents increased by 53%. The success measure for the analysis was at −0.586.
This means that the reported crime incidents in the target area were increased, but it
performed better than the control area. The buffer displacement measure came in at −0.366
and the weighted displacement quotient (WDQ) at 0.624. Significantly, the buffer dis­
placement and success measure indicate an effective scheme with a diffusion of benefits.
It must be remembered that diffusion of benefits only occurs when there is a decrease of
crime outside the camera’s surveillance area. This means that displacement buffer area (B)
suffered proportionally less crime in comparison to the control buffer area (C) after CCTV
implementation.

Overall, the WDQ analysis determined that crime in the target area was higher and per­
formed better than the control area. However, total crime in the combined buffer area and
target area increased by 25%. The total net effect (TNE) for the Cherry Hill area was the
prevention of the possibility of 490 crimes. Conclusively, it can be said that there is a posi­
tive benefit to the operation of installing crime cameras in the target area. It should be noted

Figure 3. Crime trend in Cherry Hill, Baltimore, MD, 2003–2014.

88 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 4. (a) WDQ analysis: before and after; (b) green: buffer A; yellow: buffer B; orange: buffer C.

that although crime incidents after the intervention are higher, this could be due to cameras
recording more criminal activity. So, in reality, crime may have been occurring prior to
CCTV interpolation but not officially recorded as an incident by police, due to lack of evi­
dence and reportage.

8. Viewshed and hot spot analysis

The viewshed analysis provides a great visual understanding of the visible landscape from
the Cherry Hill BPD crime cameras. Seen in Figure 5 are the results of the viewshed analysis
in the study area Cherry Hill, the transparent purple layer representing the area visible by the
 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 89
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Figure 5. Viewshed analysis.

crime cameras, and a transparent red for the non-visible areas. The identifications of build­
ings are placed on top of the visible or non-visible viewshed layer to demonstrate what is
actually seen by the crime cameras.

The viewshed analysis result layer was then used as a parameter to calculate the Getis-Ord
Gi* optimized hot spot analysis. The results of the Getis-Ord Gi* optimized hot spot analysis
tool created a new feature class of the crime incident data, for pre- and post-installation of
CCTV cameras. It was signified by whether it is part of a statistically significant hot spot, a sta­
tistically significant cold spot, or if it is not part of any statistically significant cluster as seen
in Figure 6(a). The red areas are hot spots, or areas where a high number of crime incidents
have taken place. The cold spots would be the blue areas, but there are none on this map for
the data. The beige areas represent a statistically insignificant cluster of crime incidents.

The magnitude results from the hot spot analysis can be visualized as a − 0.50774 change rate
in average magnitude (in comparing before and after CCTV implementation), outside of the
camera’s viewshed as seen in Table 1. In the viewshed of the camera, the average rate of crime
increased with a value of 0.039368. The degree of crime decreased after intervention outside
CCTV view, but the level increased after intervention within the cameras’ line of vision. The
decrease in magnitude of crime incidences outside the camera’s viewshed after the installation
is analogous to diffusion of benefits. The increase of magnitude inside the camera’s viewshed
could be comparable to the WDQ results. In the qualitative thematic map produced as seen
in Figure 4, the change from densest (darker) crime zones from pre- to post-installation offers
a strong visual depiction of the magnitude of the measure of crime. Some of the movement
90 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 6. (a) Getis-Ord Gits* optimized hot spot analysis comparison. (b) Getis-Ord Gits* optimized hot spot analysis
magnitude comparison.
 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 91
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Table 1. Magnitude change rate.

depicted may be due to the awareness of perpetrators of the location of CCTV units, and thus
their blind spots, to commit a crime. The results below compare crime rates outside of the
viewshed, before and after camera installation. Their findings gesture toward a good method
to select new camera sites. These can be obtained by comparing maps of hotspots pre- and
post-CCTV fitting, outside of the viewshed, as noticeable, as seen in Figure 6(a) and (b).

9. Discussion and conclusion

As opposed to other similar studies, this study differs when displaying the evaluation of
crime distribution from CCTV cameras. Its practical and scholarly value is shown through
this unique approach, overcoming limitations in previous studies. Other investigations were
not able to obtain the exact viewshed for their results, due to limitations like land use and
road infrastructures. This work has obtained the exact view of sight of the crime cameras by
using LiDAR data to calculate the viewshed. The analysis for a portion of this study is just
contained within the boundaries of what is visible to the cameras and what is out of sight:
a new practical application that police departments could use to analyze criminal hot spots.
The use of LiDAR data to produce a viewshed of exactly what cameras see has not been
undertaken prior to this study, and its practical value can be seen in the results. The results
from WDQ analysis are exhibited as a decrease of crime in the control area, but an increase of
crime in the camera’s target area. Along with this tactic, the methods and results of previous
studies were also utilized to conclude to a well-rounded result.

The WDQ analysis used buffer sizes based on the BPD procedure measures for camera line of
sight. These measurements of the buffer sizes are based on camera vendors, local law enforce­
ment officers, and camera monitor’s typical zooming ability. When the hot spot analysis
used the exact viewshed to calculate its results, its comparison with the WDQ was similar.
This demonstrates that there is a clear benefit to installing crime cameras. It is worth noting
that the hot spot analysis calculated the magnitude of the rate of crime. Thus, it can only
give an idea of if there is displacement or diffusion of benefits taking place versus the WDQ
analysis, as the WDQ results provide an exact measure to demonstrate both displacement and
92 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

diffusion of benefits. Conversely, it could be argued that the hot spot analysis gives a better
idea of criminal incidence patterns due to its recreation of the exact viewshed of the CCTV
surveillance. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses, but together, they work in tan­
dem to bolster each other. It should be pointed out that both results of WDQ and the hot spot
analysis demonstrate an increase of crime post-installation within the parameters of CCTV
surveillance. The analyses of both sets of results also corroborated the decrease of crime out­
side the camera’s surveillance area: for WDQ, surveillance areas mean target area buffer (A)
within .05 mile radius, but for the hot spot analysis, this represents its exact viewshed. This
could indicate that both results had a diffusion of benefits.

With the use of the weight displacement quotient, it needs to be pointed out that the result
measure should not be used as an exact quantification of displacement or diffusion of ben­
efits, but it should be used to indicate the possible existence of these. The only way to obtain
this exact measure would be through conducting extensive interviews with large numbers
of local criminals. Overall, this type of research approach would be costly and error laden,
potentially outweighing its practical benefits. Most research in this vein is with offenders who
are incarcerated or on probation.

The crime data used in this research is restricted in interpreting and understanding the ‘true’
picture of crime. It must be understood that not every crime that occurs is reported then
recorded, and that not every crime that is recorded is investigated. This means that caution
should always be observed with interpreting and analyzing any crime data. Another issue
with the crime data used in this research is that it was not possible to get the exact consistency
from BPD for the data from 2003 to 2014. BPD could only supply data from 2009–present, due
to a fire in their data facility in 2011. This data could have been extracted, but for an unrealistic
cost. The 2003–2008 data were obtained through John Hopkins University’s GIS data library:
despite claiming that it originated from the BPD, the data differed slightly. With a few adjust­
ments, however, it was successfully reconciled to BPDs’. This provided confidence in using it
for this study, but it must be heeded as a limitation. Additionally, policing behavior over time
can vary. A change before and after installation of cameras could lead to a change in crime dis­
tribution. A further variable to be considered is a possible shift in the demographics in Cherry
Hill during this period. One more point of deliberation is over the possibility for human error
when dealing with any large data set, such as the crime incident data. The complexity of crime
must be re-emphasized, and other uncontrollable variables could play a part in the outcome
of the results listed. If these limitations are understood, then they can be better accounted for.

Results from the viewshed and hot spot analysis show a decrease in magnitude outside the
area of view of the CCTV. The magnitude of crime increased, however, after the installation
of the cameras, in the line of the camera’s visibility. This could be accounted for simply by
the fact that after camera intervention, more criminal incidents are detectable, versus out­
side the viewshed where fewer incidents can be recorded. Whether this is directly due to
camera footage, more victims coming forth, or police programs actively working in detected
hot spots with CCTV is unclear, due to lack of acknowledgement in the crime incident
data. Nonetheless, CCTV crime cameras have a small, desirable impact on crime, generally
 Evaluating the Effectiveness of CCTV in Baltimore, Maryland 93
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79076

speaking, judging by the presence of diffusion of benefits. It has to be acknowledged that

a successful CCCTV operation in a particular area’s parameters may not be the same as in
another crime fighting location. This is where the opportunity for the use of GIS within polic­
ing operation broadens. Research indicates that where people think they are being watched,
crime reduces. GIS forecasts based on CCTV could forestall displacement and create a mobile
and anticipatory police presence in crime hot spots, thus enhancing the capability of existing
CCTV operations.

Baltimore patrons think that the city’s public surveillance system prevents crime, and that it
helps solve criminal activity that would have not been apprehended otherwise due to lack of
identification, failure to recover the weapon, or even the absence of a witness willing to come
forward. It has encouraged witnesses to cooperate with the police, where they would not
otherwise. This ties in to theses previously proposed in this paper, about the elevated rates
of general crime in hot spots post-installation of cameras. Although there are some compli­
cations with its usage, it has been observed that key investigations and prosecutions lie in
the evidence provided by camera technology. It is important to view the evaluation of the
crime surveillance cameras in the context of a larger community policing framework. These
devices are not flawless, but just another—albeit useful—crime control and investigative tool.
Cameras may make some difference, but this cannot be confidently stated. Ideally, this tool
should be used as part of a process with all other law enforcement strategies. This technol­
ogy is only as effective as the police program running it. GIS techniques merely enhance the
CCTV’s capabilities.

Author details

Brian Ways* and Brooks C. Pearson

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

University of Central Arkansas, Conway, United States

References

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[2] Farmer L. The New Oxford Companion to Law. England: Oxford University Press; 2008

[3] Skogan W. Community Policing: Common Impediments to Success: The Past, Present
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[4] La Vigne N, Lowry S, Markman J, Dwyer A. Evaluating the Use of Public Surveillance
Cameras for Crime Control and Prevention. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute; 2011
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[5] Nieto M. Public Video Surveillance: Is it An Effective Crime Prevention Tool? Sacramento:
California Research Bureau; 1997. [Accessed: Sep 17, 2016]

[6] FBI: UCR. Crime in the United States. 2003. [Online]. Available from: https://ucr.fbi.gov/
crime-in-the-u.s/2003 [Accessed: 2013]

[7] Federal Bureau of Investigations. FBI Releases 2009 Crime Statistics. 2009. [Online]. Available
from: https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2009-crime-
statistics [Accessed: Feb 18, 2015]

[8] Television Broadcast. National: Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, a
division of Time Warner. Mar 29, 1997
[9] Rosenberg T. Armed with Data, Fighting More than Crime. 2012. [Online]. Available
from: https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/02/armed-with-data-fighting-more-
than-crime/ [Accessed: Dec 2, 2014]

[10] National Ocean Service. What is LIDAR? 2013. [Online]. Available from: https://ocean­
service.noaa.gov/facts/lidar.html [Accessed: Jun 4, 2013]

[11] Zhang K, Chen S, Whitman D, Shyu M, Yan J. A progressive morphological filter for
removing nonground measurements from airborne LIDAR data. IEEE Transactions on
Geoscience and Remote Sensing. 2003;41(4):872-882

[12] Bowers K, Johnson S. Measuring the geographical displacement and diffusion of

benefit effects of crime prevention activity. Journal of Quantitative Criminology.
2003;19(3):275-301

[13] Lowry S, La Vigne N. Measuring potential diffusion of benefits and crime displacement
near public surveillance systems. Geography and Public Safety. 2011;3(1):10

[14] Aimes A, Evans M, Fox L, Petteway R, Rutledge R. Neighborhood Health Profile: Cherry
Hill. 2008. [Online]. Available from: https://www.baltimorehealth.org/dataresearch/
[Accessed: Sep 17, 2016]

[15] Burt J, Barber G, Rigby D. Elementary Statistics for Geographers. New York: Guilford
Press; 2009

[16] Chang K. Introduction to Geographic Information Systems. Boston: McGraw-Hill; 2006

 Chapter 6

The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a

New Tourist Destination: Analysis of Clusters in a GIS
Environment

Hélder Tiago
Hélder Tiago da
da Silva
Silva Lopes,
Lopes,
Paula Cristina Almeida Cadima Remoaldo
Paula Cristina Almeida Cadima Remoaldo and
and Vitor Ribeiro
Vitor Ribeiro
Additional information is available at the end of the chapter
Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78598

Abstract

The use of new photo­sharing services in social networks has favoured a perception of the
interests of locals and visitors. The photos presented in these networks are geocoded by the
users, residents or visitors, allowing extensive databases to be obtained. The research that
was conducted between 2015 and 2016 followed an essentially quantitative approach. Based
on the georeferenced photos on social networks, the main distribution patterns of places of
interest to tourists, visitors and residents were analysed in a rural emergent tourist destina­
tion in northeastern Portugal. We used geographical information systems (GISs) to apply
various spatial and statistical analysis techniques. One the main conclusions was that there
is a high number of natural and cultural heritage locations with tourism potential, and, in
some cases, their accessibility standards make them favourable destinations for tourists.

Keywords: rural tourism, spatial analysis, accessibility, photo­sharing services, GIS

1. Introduction

The development of new methods of analysis of the images of various destinations has
accompanied the emergence of extensive research that uses the method of analysing photos
[1–5]. Another fact is due to the massive use of the Internet, which is increasingly introducing
significant changes in the way people interact in society [6, 7]. This new dimension of com­
munication has made the expression of multiple cultural values possible [8]. Because of the

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
96 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

evolution of the Internet and the advent of smart technology, the proliferation of the number
of photos registered per trip has occurred in recent decades [9]. However, the habit of sharing
them with co­workers, family and friends, as well as in the broader media, comes as a result
of online sharing, often in real time and synchronously on various websites, such as Flickr,
Picasa, Facebook, Panoramio and Pinterest [4, 10–15].
Images have assumed a fundamental role in the dissemination of the dimensions and
amplitudes of tourist spaces. The sharing of photos of a place through social networks has
an increasingly strong power in promoting tourism, where the dissemination of the tourist
image has an effective and lasting role. Different social media platforms have been accom­
modating new features, and coupled with their simplicity of handling and attractiveness,
they are competing increasingly with traditional travel guides or leaflets because they allow
people to post photographs on the Internet immediately after they are taken [4, 12, 13, 16–21].
However, it should be noted that these platforms still tend to be used by the younger age
groups and by groups with higher socioeconomic characteristics.
Conversely, research centred on the analysis of online images of rural destinations has not
been explored extensively [22–24]. Increasingly, urban dwellers’ interest in staying overnight
and visiting rural areas shows that it is essential to market and promote rural destinations
online [18, 25–29].
With the evolution of geographic information technologies, it is possible to analyse distribu­
tion patterns (intensity, concentration and dispersion) of tourism resources in different spaces
through density maps, central trend measures or with the use of indicators of distribution
patterns (e.g. Getis-Ord General G or Moran’s Index).
Based on these assumptions, the main objectives of this research are (i) to identify the spatial
distribution patterns of the photos of visitors and residents; (ii) to characterise the different
“looks” of the tourist destination and (iii) to contribute to the development of a tourist image
that is closer to the interests of visitors and locals. This study complements other approaches
undertaken in the territory, resulting mainly from an exploratory analysis of existing and
potential tourism resources, the results of the focus group that was conducted, and the results
of a self­administered survey [30, 31].
This chapter consists of four sections. After the introductory section, the second section presents
the main methods and sources used to acquire the data that were used. Section 3 is a summary
of the main results that were achieved, and it highlights the main potentialities of the analysis
of the images and how they can contribute to the segmentation of the visitors. Section 4 presents
our discussions. Section 5 presents the conclusions concerning the main results, proposes some
challenges for future research and identifies the main limitations that were intrinsic to the study.

2. Materials and methods used in the study area

2.1. Geographical context

The case study was based on the municipality of Boticas, which is located in the Nomenclature of
Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) III of Alto Tâmega in the northeast of Continental Portugal.
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 97
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Figure 1. Geographical context of the municipality of Boticas: Population by subsection, TIPAU and MDT. Source: Own
elaboration (based on the Census, 2011; TIPAU 2014 (INE) and Atlas of the Environment).

According to the Typology of Urban Areas (TIPAU) of 2014, seven of the parishes are considered
Medium Urban Areas (MUA) and three as Predominantly Rural Areas (PRA) [32]. The area is sub­
divided into 10 parishes, with an area of 322 km2 (Figure 1). In 2011 (last census), the population
of the municipality of Boticas was 5750, of which 1510 residents (26.3% of the population) lived
in Boticas and Granja. In fact, this municipality, like other territories located in the interior of the
country, has lost its vitality. One of the municipality’s main potentials is the use of its endogenous
resources to attract tourists, associated economic activities and to enhance its population.

2.2. Materials and methods

The database used in this research was constructed with data from Panoramio’s photo plat­
form, Google Earth. The period from January 2005 to March 2016 was used, and 728 photos
were used. The photos were analysed by two quantitative methods, that is, (1) univariate
and multivariate statistical analysis using the SPSS 22.0 statistical package and (2) geospatial
analysis using the ArcGIS 10.3 package. The data were grouped into several typologies con­
sidering the assumptions defined in previous studies [3–5]:

i. Four categories—(1) built heritage (e.g. monuments, historic buildings, churches and
typical homes), (2) nature (landscape, fauna and flora), (3) culture (combining expres­
sions of local culture, traditions or festivals) and (4) tourist services (comprising all forms
98 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

of tourism equipment and infrastructures, such as accommodations, catering and signs).

The situations in which images with more than one set of elements were verified always
opted for the predominant set.

ii. Zoom of the image—this was analysed by checking the following assumptions: (1) if the
image is focused on a single element (e.g. a window of a dwelling or a church), (2) in
its context (a church in the housing complex) or (3) whether it is a panoramic view or a
scenery (e.g. a mountain or a river).

iii. Presence of people.

iv. Origin—whether the image originates from locals or visitors.

After defining the cataloguing criteria of the images, the main assumptions that are inherent
to the analysis of the spatial distribution of the photos should be emphasised:

1. the data were aggregated in hexagons with 150 m of side and 300 m of diameter;

2. standard distance calculations were performed to infer the degree of concentration or the
dispersion of resources around the mean geometric centre;

3. two indices were used to determine global localization patterns, that is, Getis-Ord General
G and Global Moran’s I. These served to identify the degree of agglomeration of high and
low values and the spatial correlation based on local resources and attribute values;

4. Anselin Local Moran’s statistics (LISA statistics) were used, making it possible to deter­
mine emerging local trends for the intensification of Boticas’ tourism.
These typologies were the basis of the identification of clusters. This technique allows the
identification of groups with high homogeneity within the group as well as intergroup het­
erogeneity [3]. The k­means method was used considering the following assumptions: (i) the
choice of a sample was made based on a sample in each group, from a group of groups (2–5);
(ii) minimum loss of information through the merging of the elements and (iii) instead of
considering the categories per se, items were used to segment the groups. After obtaining the
clusters, an ANOVA test was performed to determine the differences between the groups.

3. Results

The destination image can be promoted based on the sets of photos that residents and visitors
take, considering their ability to become souvenirs, postcards or tourists’ objects. Photo density
analysis of Sightsmaps (http://www.sightsmap.com/, developed by [33]) clearly showed a den­
sity of photos in more urbanised areas (e.g. Oporto Metropolitan Area (OMP), Braga, Guimarães,
Viana do Castelo, Chaves and Bragança) in the course of the Douro River (in Portugal, Barca
d’Alva to the mouth between Porto and VN Gaia) or in the Peneda and Gerês National Park
(PNPG), which was different from what occurs in territories such as Boticas.

In the municipality of Boticas, as with the other municipalities of Alto Tâmega (with the excep­
tion of Chaves), there is a density of photos that were much smaller and circumscribed to the
central area of the municipality. Figure 2 summarises the distribution of the photographic
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 99
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Figure 2. Geographic distribution of photos of visitors and residents. Source: Panoramio photos, collected during the
period from January 2003 through March 2015.

series, differing according to whether they were taken by residents or visitors. In general,
there is a concentration of photos in the northwest and central areas of the municipality of
Boticas, although most of the photos are distributed somewhat throughout the municipality,
mainly along the main axes of the road network.

However, it is in the parish of Boticas and Granja that there was a greater density of photos,
which was due to the amount of equipment available to visitors. For this reason, in all parishes,
there are more photos of visitors than residents (258 for locals and 470 for visitors—Table 1).
The maximum of photos recorded per hexagon for this group was 55 photos (Table 2).

The grouping of the photos in hexagons shows a concentration of photos to the north of the
municipality, and the areas with the lower densities of photos are located to the south, espe­
cially in the parish of Pinho (three photos—Figure 3).
To identify the clusters, the G-statistics were analysed, and the Moran index was used. The
G­statistics indicated that there was a tendency for the concentration of values (high clusters),
with high levels of significance (p-value < 0.01). Likewise, the Moran index indicated a very
strong spatial correlation for the formation of spatial agglomerates (p-value < 0.01, Figure 4).
The Anselin local Moran’s statistic was calculated with the intention of mapping the presence
of these groups, and it was found that the number of clusters with High­High (HH) values
was not very significant. Concerning the distribution of these clusters, there was a spatial
100 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Parish Locals Visitors Total

No. % No. % No. %

Alturas do Barroso and Cerdedo 85 32.9 105 22.3 190 26.1

Dornelas 7 2.7 16 3.4 23 3.2

Ardãos and Bobadela 15 5.8 15 3.2 30 4.1

Boticas and Granja 49 19.0 201 42.8 250 34.3

Beça 38 14.7 72 15.3 110 15.1

Pinho 0 0.0 3 0.6 3 0.4

Codessoso, Curros and Fiães do Tâmega 15 5.8 14 3.0 29 4.0

Covas do Barroso 10 3.9 9 1.9 19 2.6

Vilar and Viveiro 28 10.9 24 5.1 52 7.1

Sapiãos 11 4.3 11 2.3 22 3.0

Total 258 100 470 100 728 100

Source: Panoramio photos, collected for the period from January 2003 through March 2015.

Table 1. Distribution of photos by parish (in number and percent).

Number of photos D.P. Maximum of photos per hexagon

Total 728 1.56 66

Locals 238 0.43 17

Visitors 490 1.22 55

Source: Panoramio photos, collected for the period from January 2003 through March 2015.

Table 2. Statistics of photos taken by visitors and locals.

agglomeration in several villages typical of the municipality (e.g. Vilarinho Sêco, Coimbró),
in places of landscape-natural interest (e.g. Carvalhelhos, Mosteiró, Vilarinho de Mó) and
in the village centre, either by locals or visitors. There are some differences between places
photographed by locals and visitors. The former has High­High (HH) clusters in Coimbró,
Serra do Barroso Wind Farm and in Fiães do Tâmega, while the latter have an agglomeration
in Sapiãos (e.g. anthropomorphic graves, some typical houses, river beach), which are not
present in the photographs made by the residents. It should be noted, however, that there
were small clusters expressed in Low­High values, which correspond to atypical values.
Figure 6 presents the typologies created for the photos. The concentration of photos is strongly
associated with two types of characteristics, that is, built­heritage (57%) and natural elements
(35%). Tourism services (5%) and local culture (4%, Figure 5A) appear less often.
The distances from which the images were photographed were very different. In some cases,
the person taking the photos focused only on the details, while others sought to take photo­
graphs of the entire scene. Therefore, we chose to classify the photographs into three sub­
groups, as shown in Figure 5(B). The results allowed us to conclude that 57% of the sites/
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 101
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Figure 3. Density of photos: (A) locals, (B) visitors, (C) total. Source: Own elaboration, based on Panoramio photos for the
period from January 2003 through March 2015.

visitors photographed elements in the context, which reflected the demand of visitors and
residents to capture what is within a context, so that it can be recognised easily. Another
element used for analysis was the degree of the presence of people in the photos (Figure 5C).
102 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 4. Anselin local Moran’s statistics. Source: Own elaboration, based on Panoramio photos for the period from
January 2003 through March 2015.

The most common circumstance for visitors and residents was to take photos without the
presence of people (93%; Figure 5D), and only 7% of the photos included people. In addition,
67.3% of the photos were taken by visitors, showing their renewed interest, which is perfectly
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 103
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Figure 5. Typologies of photos (%): (A) category, (B) human presence, (C) zoom, and (D) origin. Source: Own elaboration,
based on Panoramio photos for the period from January 2003 through March 2015.

understandable. In fact, it is surprising that there were a significant number of locals placing
Panoramio photos, which may indicate the recognition of the natural and built heritage that
exists in the municipality.

Figure 6 represents the temporal distribution of the photos taken by visitors and locals. It
should be noted that the figures do not refer to all of the photos sent to the Panoramio plat­
form over the review period; rather, they refer only to the photos that contain information
concerning the dates they were taken.

There were 528 photos with year­to­year, intra­annual and intra­day information that were
included among the 729 previously classified photos. In fact, the year with the highest num­
ber of photographs taken by visitors was 2014, while in the case of locals, the highest number
of photographs taken occurred in previous years, that is, between 2006 and 2008 (Figure 6A).
Thus, in cumulative terms, there has been a redoubled interest in taking photographs by
visitors in recent years. However, when analysing the values recorded monthly in the period
from 2013 through 2015, there is a seasonality of the photo records, with a concentration in
August (Figure 6B). Concerning the hourly range, these photographs generally were taken
between 10:00 am and 5:00 pm (Figure 6C).

It should be noted that residents contributed most to post­5:00 pm photographs, which may be
due to the return of excursions to the place of departure after an overnight visit to the Boticas
municipality, indicating that the municipality had visitors but not tourists. There are some records
104 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 6. Temporal patterns of locals’ and visitors’ photos: (A) photos taken per year with registration of the number of
photos and cumulative percentage (% cum) for locals, visitors and both; (B) photos taken per month with percent (%)
recorded for locals, visitors and both; (C) photos taken per hour with percentage (%) for locals, visitors and both and
cumulative percentage (% cum). Source: Panoramio photos collected for the period from January 2003 through March
2015.

during the night period, but they should be viewed with caution because there may have been
errors associated with the instruments’ recordings of the time when the photographs were taken.

An analysis also was conducted for the areas with the highest concentration of photos (i.e. the
areas classified in Figure 7 with High­High (HH) clusters).

It should be noted that these concentration areas received a larger number of photos than
the others, and it was decided to compare the evolutionary rhythms by year and month with
respect to the total records of photos in the municipality.

Although there was a trend toward the concentration of photographs in some areas of the
Boticas municipality, as was previously indicated, this centralization only began to occur
in 2014 (Figure 7A). Even so, these photos were taken mostly in the summer months, with
emphasis on the month of August, which should result from visitors to the country (Figure 7B).
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 105
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Figure 7. Time patterns in photos in agglomeration areas (high-high (HH) clusters) in comparison with all photographs:
(A) cumulative percentage (% cum) of captured photos per year from 2003 through 2015; (B) percentage (%) of photos
per month. Source: Own elaboration, based on Panoramio photos for the period from January 2003 through March 2015.

Cluster A (n = 250) Cluster B (n = 325) Cluster C (n = 153) F-ratio p-value

Built heritage 0 89.8 78.4 4698.348 00.000*

Local culture 0 2.5 12.4

Nature 100 0 0.7

Tourist services 0 7.7 8.5

Element 10 29.2 17.6 163.294 00.000*

Element in context 34.4 64.9 76.5

Scenario 55.6 5.8 5.9

Without people 96 93.8 85 3.008 00.050**

With people 4 6.2 15

Residents 34 0 100 94.401 00.000*

Visitors 66 100 0

*
p < 0.01.
**
p ≤ 0.05.
Source: Own elaboration, based on Panoramio photos for the period from January 2003 through March 2015.

Table 3. Analysis of the clusters of the photos.

Table 3 summarises the results of grouping items into clusters. It was observed that the char­
acteristics of the photographs indicated that there were two types of patterns, that is, tourists
and residents. Note that, during the analysis, it was verified that all the items presented a
106 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

p-value of ≤0.05. The ANOVA test result also showed that the variables included in the model
were sufficiently different for their grouping, and, thus, three groups were created. Cluster
A (n = 250) essentially presents photographs of nature (100%), and the cluster is associated
with photos that focus on scenarios (55.6%) and includes the visitors who most often take
this type of photos. Cluster B represents only the class of visitors, highlighting the elements
in the context (64.9%) and the built heritage category (89.8%). Cluster C represents the least
expressive group and incorporates photographs that focus on elements located in the context
(76.5%) and in the category of the built heritage (78.4%). Clusters B and C contain essentially
photographs that do not include people.

4. Discussion

As demonstrated during the study, Boticas is a tourist destination with seasonal demand, par­
ticularly during the summer period (Figure 8), a fact substantiated by the intersection of the
number of visitors registered in Interactive Shop Porto and North Tourism and the number of
photographs available in Panoramio. In any case, it is important to mention that some of the
rural tourism houses in the municipality have a higher number of visitors during the winter
period, as was evident from direct observation and discussions with these local agents.
The relationship between the photos that were taken and the promotion conveyed by various
means of communication does not always present a direct relationship. In fact, although the
Nadir Afonso Arts Center and the Boticas Nature and Biodiversity Park present a significant
number of photographs and are key tourist resources for the promotion of the territory, there
are other resources that the municipality presents that are underutilised due to the lack of the
dissemination of information about their existence.
When the number of photographs is considered with respect to the tourist resources identi­
fied in the territory (Figure 9), it was verified that there are villages in which some of the
traditional customs have been preserved, for example, Vilarinho Sêco and Coimbró. Although
such considerations also are woven by residents and other stakeholders (i.e. [23, 30, 31]) when

Figure 8. Photos recorded in the Panoramio (from 2003 through 2015) and visitors (from 2011 through 2015) in comparison
with the minimum and maximum temperatures registered in the climatological normal for the period from 1971 through
2000 in Vila Real. Source: Own elaboration, based on Panoramio photos for the period from January 2003 through March
2015, in data from the Interactive Tourism Store and http://www.ipma.pt/pt/oclima/normais.clima/1981-2010/023.
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 107
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78598

Figure 9. Relationship between the number of photographs and tourist resources identified in Boticas. Source:
Photographs of Panoramio, collected for the period from January of 2003 through March 2015 and in the tourist resources
referenced in http://patrimonio.cm-boticas.pt and in loco.

they identify the valued tourist attributes or those with high potential for appreciation, they
are still not as effective in the tourism promotion strategy.
The results also show that visitors and local people more often have photographed patri­
monial and natural elements. However, it should be noted that this difference was more
significant in the case of the local people. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that
these evidences present a high degree of similarity with the results obtained by [3]. The
perceived image of Boticas is very much related to the built heritage rather than to nature,
although the differences are not so significant when compared with the categories of tour­
ist services and local culture. This was a surprising discovery, and, if it is true that this
municipality has a unique built­heritage (especially churches and museums), there also
were some atrocities committed during the patrimonial recovery processes with profound
changes to the structures of churches and chapels. However, the relevance of nature, espe­
cially on the part of the visitors, is consistent with the reading made by the various stake­
holders, considering the magnificence of the natural ecosystem, that is, the mountains and
valleys, of this territory.
Another element of analysis that allows us to infer the image of visitors is associated with
the degree to which people are present in the photographs. While in some European desti­
nations the captured heritage photographs do not have individuals present, in others they
appear more frequently, especially in exotic or allocentric destinations. Photographs with the
108 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

presence of visitors occur commonly in destinations where there is a degree of interaction

between the receiving community and visitors [3].

A careful analysis of the photographs allowed us to infer that those taken in the Boticas ter­
ritory were largely free of the presence of both local people and visitors. This situation is not
uncommon, as was evident in the investigations conducted by Girona [3, 34, 35] and Vale
de Boí [3]. One of the reasons that support the absence of people in the photos is the ideal of
individual consumption of places, which is supported by the assertion that the presence of
people in the photographs could represent a kind of alteration of reality [36].

Nevertheless, in most cases, tourists who visit a destination such as Boticas seek to eliminate
any vestige of humanity to avoid detracting attention away from the element or the land­
scape, for example, empty churches or the splendour of the landscape. These photographs
usually also have a smaller focus, where the elements in the context (56.9%) are the most
photographed, which may be due to the search for a broader framework than they are visiting
(global vision of the place), to facilitate their later recognition.

In fact, visitors’ behaviours may be framed in accordance with the photographs that are taken
in the sense that the length of stay in the municipality is very small. Most of the photos with
a visiting author occur between 10:00 A.M. and 4:00 P.M, which may denote (i) the absence
of tourist facilities that are open for a longer time period, (ii) the absence of other interesting
activities in the municipality, (iii) the absence of catering services that are open until later
hours during the weekly period and (iv) the lack of desirable hotel accommodations that meet
visitors’ expectations.

Considering these elements, it would seem reasonable to start some efforts to counteract
this trend and to create a precise and accurate image of this territory. This could be done
in the form of tourism products, based, for example, on nature, health and well­being. This
approach could attract visitors who have an interest in these locations, and it may allow the
maintenance of sustainable tourism practices.

5. Conclusion

The photos taken by locals and visitors show that there are certain observable distribution
patterns and that these patterns have some similarities and some significant differences.
In fact, visitors take photos less concentrated in certain housing areas than in locals,
which shows a certain predisposition to value elements of the intangible heritage. It
should be noted that 34.5% of the photos that were taken were associated with the natural
component.

In some cases, there is a certain disarticulation between the promotion of tourism conducted
by the municipality and the image of the destination based on photographs. In this way, there
are some clues that can be put forward for future work, namely (i) assessing the seasonality
of photographs taken by residents and visitors and, thus, which potential sites to promote
and at which time of the year; (ii) verification of the distribution of the photographs at the
supra­municipal scale, given that this sample is incipient and that it is possible, based on
 The Use of Photos of the Social Networks in Shaping a New Tourist Destination: Analysis… 109
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78598

photographs standards on a broader scale, to develop common strategies with other adjacent
territories; and (iii) objectives, goals and strategies that can be outlined in the short term and
medium term for the development of tourism.

Such research has some limitations. While it is critical to take into consideration that residents
or visitors only share the photos they deem to be most relevant, only some groups are fre­
quent users of these platforms. Nonetheless, these approaches must be used in combination
with other approaches, such as surveys, focus groups and interviews, to determine important
information concerning the use of the territory’s resources from the perspective of enhancing
tourism.

Acknowledgements

This work has the financial support of the Project Lab2PT—Landscapes, Heritage and Territory
Laboratory—AUR/04509 and FCT through national funds and when applicable of the FEDER
cofinancing, in the aim of the new partnership agreement PT2020 and COMPETE2020—POCI
01 0145 FEDER 007528.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Author details

Hélder Tiago da Silva Lopes1,2*, Paula Cristina Almeida Cadima Remoaldo1 and
Vitor Ribeiro1

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

1 Laboratory of Landscape, Heritage and Territory, Department of Geography,

University of Minho, Braga, Portugal

2 Group of Climatology, Water Research Institute, Department of Geography, University of

Barcelona, Spain

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 Section 3

Spatial and Spatiotemporal Modelling

 Chapter 7

Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy

Sets and GIS

Khalid Al-Ahmadi

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78646

Abstract
Urban growth occurs in conjunction with a series of decision-making processes and is, on
the whole, not deterministic but rather is the outcome of competing local demands and
uncontrolled, chaotic processes. Fuzzy sets theory is ideally suited to treat the complexity
and uncertainties in the decision-making process. This chapter presented an example of
how fuzzy sets can be applied to model urban growth driving forces within geographical
information system environment. The mathematical models for measuring, computing
and defining 10 fuzzy urban growth factors to form fuzzy driving forces of urban growth
in Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia, were discussed. Four factors were considered as the driving
forces for urban growth in Riyadh City: the transport support factor, urban agglomeration
and attractiveness factor, topographical constraints factor, and planning policies and
regulations factor. The urban growth factors were established using fuzzy set theory,
which quantified the effect of distance decay using fuzziness. This approach is a transpar-
ent method of interpreting the curve of distance decay using linguistic variables. This
feature does not exist in the linear, negative exponential or inverse power functions. The
results indicate that fuzzy accessibility and fuzzy urban density factors are capable of
mimicking and representing the uncertainty in the behaviour of the human decision-
making process in land development in a very efficient manner.

Keywords: urban growth, fuzzy sets, GIS, driving forces, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

1. Introduction

Urban growth takes place in conjunction with a series of decision-making processes. This is a
feature of the complexity and uncertainties of reality and decision-making in planning. While
matters of high policy regarding urban growth are determined by senior urban planners and
elected personnel, site selection is usually a subjective process which follows individuals’

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
116 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

preferences. This process is, on the whole, not deterministic, but is the outcome of competing
local demands and uncontrolled and chaotic decision-making processes. This approach is
founded on the supposition that people in general use linguistic constructs for the evaluation
of environmental or social situations [1]. It is, therefore, valid to specify rules on the basis of
studied judgment, as opposed to definitive attributes. Heuristic decision-making processes
would thus guide the rules of urban growth [2]. As the complexity of an urban system
increases, the utility of traditional mathematical methods decreases. Where urban growth
decisions are noted for a high level of complexity and uncertainty, this is more relevant [1].
Proponents of this approach contend that for handling uncertainties and complexity in
decision-making, fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic are ideally suited [3, 4].
Uncertainty, under the fuzzy approach, is assumed to have an inherently vague nature such
that it becomes identified through ‘possibility’ and not ‘probability’, which is the norm in
statistical calculations [2]. Modelling urban development, then, is made possible by integrating
heuristic decision-making processes with simulation such as cellular automata (CA). ‘Heuris-
tic’ is taken to mean that the transition rule is not decided on the basis of numbers but rather on
linguistic variables using fuzzy sets that describe certain preconditions of a decision. Develop-
ment propensities are, then, assessed not using explicit mathematical formula but by adopting
indistinct and subjective natural language statements using linguistic variables [1, 2]. For
example, where a house is in close proximity to a road, the accessibility can be rated as being
‘Very good access’. If a system is represented by a series of ‘linguistic variables’ such as ‘good’,
‘very good’ or ‘moderate’ [2, 5–8], a concept of degree of membership is defined in a fuzzy set.
This is employed in illustrating the extent of uncertainties within the fuzzy set. The processes
of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’ make it possible to model the behaviour of human
thought in decision-making in an appropriately multifaceted manner [3]. Fuzzy set theory is
used in many different fields of study to address a range of imprecise problems and issues [9].
Since mathematics deals with ideal figures, it does not always provide accurate representa-
tions for modelling the behaviour of complex systems. Zadeh [10] proposed a solution through
a different set of computations. The cloudy quantities or mathematics of fuzzy are not realized
with respect to statistical probability distributions. While the fuzzy set theory is conceptualised
to deal with mathematical problems which have only approximate values and in which events
are vague, fuzzy logic is applied to show how fuzzy variables interact in a complex system [3].
Several applications of fuzzy set theory for spatial planning have been attempted in recent
years. Notable amongst these have been the multi-dimensional evaluation of areas on the land
market [1]. Leung [11] applied fuzzy linear programming for urban land-use planning. Fuzzy
clustering methods have been employed in transport modelling [12] and in geo-demographic
[13]. Davidson et al. [14] and Hall et al. [15] have made use of applications of fuzzy set theory
and fuzzy logic in land suitability analysis. In Expert and Spatial Decision Support Systems,
Leung and Leung [16] have proposed an expert system shell for an intelligent knowledge-
based geographic information system (GIS) that is governed by a fuzzy logic inference engine.
For long-term agricultural planning, Davidson et al. [14] developed a fuzzy logic-based land
evaluation. Indeed, academic literature investigating the possible integration of fuzzy reason-
ing and fuzzy query into GIS has flourished since the 1990s [6, 7, 17–19].
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 117
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78646

According to Tobler’s so-called first law of geography, ‘everything is related to everything else
but near things are more related than distant things’ ([20], pp. 236). It is implicit that there is a
spatial interaction between any two localities, and this interaction can be measured by a distance
decay function which is based on the premise that the interaction between two localities declines
as the distance increases. Most urban models quantify the distance decay effect of accessibility
using either a negative exponential function or an inverse power function [21–24]. These two
methods describe, however, distance decay as a rapid decline in accessibility with distance from
a centre. There are some difficulties when one tries to interpret these calibrated parameters [25,
26]. However, a quantified distance decay effect of accessibility using fuzzy sets provides a more
realistic set of results and an efficient manner in terms of interpretation. The calibrated parame-
ters of fuzzy distance decay can directly be read and understood from the shape of the member-
ship function [27]. Therefore, the meaning of the figure can be read linguistically and describes
an individual’s preference for selecting an urban area.
A fuzzy cellular urban growth model (FCUGM), which is capable of simulating and predic-
ting the complexities of urban growth for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was presented by
Al-Ahmadi et al. [27–31]. The work within this chapter has reviewed the driving forces of
urban growth in both the scientific literature and in the context of Riyadh, and also reviewed
the principles of fuzzy set theory and presented an example of how these principles are
applied for modelling urban growth driving forces. Additionally, the mathematical models
for measuring, computing and defining fuzzy input variables (accessibility and urban density
(UD)) and fuzzy driving forces of urban growth of Riyadh were also discussed.

2. Driving forces of urban growth

Urban growth indicates a transformation of a vacant land or a natural environment to the

urban fabrics including residential, industrial and infrastructure developments. It mostly
occurred in the firings of urban areas. Urban expansion is driven by many factors such as
population growth and urbanization, the development of urban economy, the increase of
investment on fixed assets such as infrastructure (utility networks and roads) and the increase
of income and living standard in urban areas (better housing, health, social and recreational
services) [32]. According to the scientific literatures, these factors are considered to some extent
as driving forces in both western and eastern countries. However, the driving factors of urban
growth might differ from one place to another, according to political, economic, demographic,
social and physical factors.
In terms of the driving forces that have been used in most urban models to model urban growth
of cities, the main urban growth forces mentioned already can be dealt with as spatial factors such
as (1) travel time or spatial distance to road networks, railways or subways, (2) travel time or spatial
distance to a town centre or a metropolitan sub-centres, (3) development density, (4) proximity
to protected sources (such as drinking water, forest or wetland), (5) physical properties such
as altitude, slope or soil and geology type, (6) proximity to socioeconomic services, commercial
118 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

or industrial districts, (7) environmental suitability or (8) Government’s zoning regulations.

Although most of the studies in the literature relate to different contexts such as countries in North
America, Europe and Asia, there are very limited studies being applied to investigate the relation-
ship between spatial patterns of urban growth and its divining forces for Middle East cities
such as Riyadh.
Given that, in this research, the urban growth driving forces were selected based on three criteria:
(1) characteristics of urban growth in Riyadh based on the understanding of the historical
documents, master plans, and its attached studies and opinion of expert planners, (2) scientific
literature and (3) some empirical structural analysis. According to these three criteria, in this
research, four factors are considered as the driving forces for urban growth: (1) transport support
factor (TSF), (2) urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor (UAAF), (3) topographical con-
straints factor (TCF) and (4) planning policies and regulations factor (PPRF). These four driving
forces are formed by integrating 10 input variables (in this research). Table 1 illustrates the input
variables and its corresponding driving forces. However, the authors argue that these driving
forces are potentially comprehensive and can be applied in most contexts, since they are capable
of covering most of the urban growth factors which have previously been used in the study as
the driving forces of urban growth. These four driving forces can be seen as general containers,
where one can remove or add different input variables for a driving force according to the
context (different study areas) and data availability.

This section gives an examination of the four ‘driving forces’ (TSF, UAAF, TCF and PPRF) and
their corresponding 10 ‘input variables’ listed in Table 1. Firstly, each driving force will be
examined in the context of international scientific literature and, secondly, in the context of
Riyadh city.

Raw data Input files Input variables Driving

forces

Road network maps Road network Accessibility to local road (ALR) TSF

Road network maps Road network Accessibility to main road (AMR) TSF

Road network maps Road network Accessibility to major road (AMJR) TSF

Satellite images Classified urban areas Urban density (UD) UAAF

Land-use maps Town centre Accessibility to town centre (ATC) UAAF

Land-use maps Employment centres and Accessibility to employment centres and UAAF
Socioeconomic services socioeconomic services (AECSES)

DEM Topographical characteristics Slope gradient (SG) TCF

DEM Topographical characteristics Altitude (A) TCF

Master plans Planning and zoning regulation areas Planned areas (PA) PPRF

Master plans Planning and zoning regulation areas Excluded areas (EA) PPRF

TSF: transport support factor; UAAF: urban agglomeration & attractiveness factor; TCF: topographical constraints factor;
PPRF: planning policies and regulations factor.

Table 1. The raw data, input files, input variables and driving forces of urban growth in Riyadh.
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 119
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78646

2.1. Transport support factor

The transport network has proved to be the key factor in the urban evolution process because of its
influence over urban form and land price. Although the relationships between the road network
and the urban form are rarely apparent, it is considered an intersecting process. Transport is
considered as a significant factor in accelerating urban growth and attracting new development.
It offers easy and efficient access from a certain location to other supporting activities such as
employment centres, socioeconomic services and amenities. An efficient and affordable transport
network increases the accessibility to land, and land with good accessibility is usually more
attractive for urban development. The use of a transport network as a factor influencing urban
growth can be traced back to Alonso’s [33] theory of urban land markets. Before that, of course,
Van Thunen’s [34] theory of agricultural rent, firms and households established the basic eco-
nomic relationships. These theories can be used to demonstrate that land or locations with good
accessibility are more attractive and have a higher market value than less accessible locations.

One of the early attempts in United States to examine the inter-relationships between transport
and urban development was by Hansen [35] in which he argued that locations with good
accessibility had a higher chance of being developed and at a higher density, than less accessi-
ble or remote locations. Torrens [36] argued that developing transport systems and improving
accessibility will alter the decisions of landlords, developers, firms and households about
where to locate a new business or a home. For example, the private automobile along with
good transport networks has made most areas across a city almost evenly appropriate as a
place to live or work [37]. But according to travel-cost minimization theories and discrete
choice theories, each household pursues a location that yields the greatest utility or satisfaction
by minimizing the travel time or travel cost from a place to live to human activities such as
working, shopping, education or leisure [36, 38].

Transport is a crucial factor influencing land use and is usually one of the chief factors in
contemporary urban land-use models and urban CA models. It can be noted apparently that
the accessibility of urban land to the transport network factor has been widely employed in most
urban CA models [22, 24, 39–45] With respect to Riyadh, the early development of the city was
tightly connected to the development of its road networks. Since 1970, the urban area of Riyadh
expanded outwards along the radial roads. Most urban construction was carried out alongside
roads for easy access to reduce development costs. Therefore, transport is a vital factor that
should be introduced into the model in this research. The concept of accessibility is widely used
in urban and regional planning, land use and transport modelling. Accessibility has been defined
‘as the ease with which activities at a given destination may be reached from an origin location
using a particular mode of transport’ ([36], pp. 49). Urban accessibility can be defined ‘as the
capability to get from place to place and the connectivity of a place with other places’ ([46], pp. 1).
Accessibility is the spatial constraint on urbanization and can be measured by the distance, travel
cost, travel time or several other measures based on these variables. From a spatial perspective,
accessibility to different human activities is a major factor in urban development [36, 46].

Thus, the transport support factor (TSF) is chosen in this research as a driving force. In the
Riyadh context, it is formed by integrating three types of roads—accessibility to local road
120 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

(ALR), accessibility to main road (AMR) and accessibility to major road (AMJR). As such,
integration is more appropriate in modelling practices because it reduces the number of vari-
ables that lead to a more understandable model.

2.1.1. Accessibility to local road

The road network of Saudi Arabia is classified based on the width. Roads with a width between
3 and 20 m are called local roads. Most residential uses are located along the sides of this class of
roads, and the neighbourhood usually has a relatively low urban density (<10 dwellings/hect-
are). In addition, light commercial uses (groceries) and educational services (primary or interme-
diate schools) that serve one quarter of the neighbourhood, which extends over an area typically
of about 4 km2, are located on local roads [47]. The availability of a paved local road is a further
indicator that land adjacent to a local road is ready for development, that is, mostly covered with
key infrastructure such as electricity supply, water and drainage, sewage and telephone lines.

2.1.2. Accessibility to main road

Roads with a width between 30 and 40 m are called main roads. Most mixed uses such as
residential and commercial land use are located beside main roads, and the density of the
population is commonly average or medium (20–40 dwellings/hectare) [47]. Commercial use
includes retail, education (high schools), light industrial uses and services (administrative
offices, branch of companies) that serve one neighbourhood (approximately 2  2 km) and
are usually located on main roads.

2.1.3. Accessibility to major road

Roads with a width more than 40 m are called major roads. They are typically found in
commercial areas (firms and establishments), governmental uses (ministries and main admin-
istrative offices) and some mixed uses, that is, residential/commercials are located along such
roads. The urban density is generally high (>40 dwellings/hectare). Additionally, the high
levels of educational services (universities and colleges) and heavy industrial uses (factories)
that serve the whole city are usually located on main roads.

2.2. Urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor

UAAF driving force comprises three input variables including urban density (UD), accessibil-
ity to employment centres and socioeconomic services (AECSES) and accessibility to town
centre (ATC). Of course, other factors can also be included such as accessibility to sub-centres.

2.2.1. Urban density

Proximity to an existing urban area is a significant factor in land development. Non-developed
land adjacent to an existing development usually has a higher possibility of imminent devel-
opment than other land. Land near to urban agglomerations is more attractive for households
and developers, because they can take advantage of the existing facilities, infrastructures and
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commercial and social activities such as electricity, water supply, drainage and sewage, tele-
phone lines and business opportunities. Many urban CA models include urban density or
development density, which is the proportion of developed land within a specific area
(neighbourhood), as a factor for urban development [22, 24, 39–45]. In this research, the
number of neighbouring developed cells that surround a non-developed cell influences the
transformation of the state of that non-developed cell. For instance, a central cell with a non-
urban state located within a neighbourhood with a high urban density (the majority of cells are
urban cells) will be forced to transform into an urban state by its urban neighbours.

2.2.2. Accessibility to employment centres and socioeconomic services

The AECSES is an important factor for residential development because most people wish to
minimise commuting distance, time or cost from home to work. This argument can be
supported by the notion of Lowry’s framework that examines the relationship between resi-
dential development and employment centres. Lowry’s [48] Model of Metropolis, which is the
first operational attempt to implement an urban land-use transport model, proceeds on the
assumption that the place of residence is governed by the place of employment, that is, jobs
decide where people live, and this idea continues to be at the heart of several of the contempo-
rary urban models [36, 37]. With respect to Riyadh city, in this research, the AECSES factor
includes most employment centres (such as administrative offices, firms and establishments)
and services (such as schools, hospitals, mosques and community centres). AECSES has been
considered as an urban growth factor in much of the urban CA literature [2, 40, 41, 44, 45].

2.2.3. Accessibility to town centre

The ATC factor is important for urban development because the town centre of the capital of Saudi
Arabia (SA), Riyadh city, functions as the key administrative and commercial centre not only for
Riyadh but for all surrounding regions. According to the bid-rent theory [34], the new develop-
ment will happen as near as possible to the city centre while at the same time trying to minimize the
land cost which controversially may lead to a trend of finding new sites far away from the urban
centre. Land development usually takes place around the city centres first, then further away. The
town centre provides better facility services, more working and business opportunities, etc. In
Riyadh, the town centre includes Government offices, ministries, retail centres and headquarters
of major companies. Hence, the city provides opportunities that are unlikely to be found anywhere
else in Riyadh city. This does not necessarily mean that living in the town centre is the most
appropriate choice but the greater the distance to the town centre, the less attractive is a location
for development. This factor is usually included in urban CA models [24, 42, 49].

2.3. Topographical constraints factor

The physical characteristics of a site or a location can be an important factor in deciding whether
or not to proceed to develop the site. The physical characteristics typically include the sub-
surface and surface geology, soil, elevation, slope, vegetation and other factors. Although all of
these physical characteristics could be considered for use in modelling urban growth in this
122 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

research, there is no reason to consider soil, geology or vegetation in the case of Riyadh because
most of the soils are sandy, the geology is stable and there is very little vegetation for much of the
year. Hence, slope and altitude or elevation are the only physical factors included in the model.
But other factors could, of course, be considered and used in the model if they were felt to be
important at a different geographical location.

2.3.1. Slope gradient

The slope of the land surface is important because it influences the use that can be made of the
land, costs of building houses, access roads and other infrastructure and safety. Urban growth
can be constrained by slopes, typically the steeper a slope the greater the constraint. For
example, land with steep slopes requires substantially more investment to develop. Land-
owners or developers would develop a site if they judge that they can make a profit on a
development site with very steep slopes. The profit margins can be calculated as a function of
the compromise between input costs (the costs of developing a site) and the anticipated selling
price of the development [36]. The steepness of slopes has been considered to be a significant
factor influencing the attractiveness of a site and its potential for development in many
scientific research papers [22, 39, 43, 49].

2.3.2. Altitude
Altitude can similarly affect the attractiveness of a site for development. If a site is low-lying, it
might be subject to flooding; if it is at a relatively high altitude, it might be more or less
attractive depending on the local topography, scenery and views. The topography of Riyadh
area includes mountains and relatively large variations in altitude from 200 to 1200 m above
the sea level. Urban development can occur in areas of steep terrain and high altitude under
certain circumstances, for instance, where there is great demand for building land and there is
a short supply of relatively flat land, or when people with high income prefer to live in
elevated areas in order to secure attractive scenic views from their windows [43]. But the cost
of building in general is greater with an increase in elevation. Altitude is therefore one of the
prime factors in the model of this research.

2.4. Planning policies and regulations factor

Just as urban growth is generally constrained by physical or site-specific factors, it is also

constrained by institutional controls and planning policies. The urban growth process is subject
to local planning regulations and policies imposed by the national, regional or local authorities.
Planning regulations and policies serve diverse purposes but one of the most important is to
control the urban expansion and prevent unplanned urban sprawl. Wegener [50] argued that
uncontrolled urban sprawl in the USA was generally regarded to be undesirable, often results in
unidentified and undistinguished neighbourhoods, reduces or damages open spaces, annihilates
natural habitats and leads to a significant increase in traffic volume. The PPRF has therefore been
used in several urban CA models [22, 24, 43]. The PPRF is introduced to the model in this
research as two variables: (1) planned area (PA) and (2) excluded area (EA).
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2.4.1. Planned area and excluded area

The planned area refers to areas outlined in the Master Plan of Riyadh and depicts the spatial
boundary of the area planned for urban growth. The excluded area denotes the area where
urban growth cannot be considered either owing to its physical characterises such as river
courses, low-lying valleys subject to seasonal flooding, or water bodies, or to cultural, environ-
mental or governmental policies to conserve the land for cultural pursuits such as heritage
places, wildlife-protected areas, groundwater areas or pollution mitigation areas. The EA cannot
be developed because it is forbidden by law or by urban-zoning regulations and policies.

3. Fuzzy sets

In set theory, a classical set is usually defined as a collection of abstract objects or elements,
which are characterized as a finite, distinct, crisp, sharp, countable object that has an unam-
biguous boundary. The universe of discourse or the set domain is all possible elements which a
set can contain [51]. The classical set is defined by distinct or crisp boundaries, that is there is
no uncertainty about the objects or location of the boundaries of the set, as shown in Figure 1a,
where the boundary of the set A is an unambiguous line [9].
In classical set theory, a single element is assessed using Boolean logic; the element either belongs
or does not belong to the set [52]. This can be expressed with the characteristic function for the
elements of a given universe to belong to a certain subset of this universe. Mathematically, a set
can be expressed as follows:
Let X be a universe of discourse (collection of objects), whose generic element is denoted as x.
Thus, X = {x}. A crisp set A in X is described by the characteristic function, whereby XA of A is
defined as XA: X ! {0, 1} and expressed mathematically as follows:

Figure 1. Diagram for (a) crisp set boundary and (b) fuzzy set boundary (after Ross, [9]).
124 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

ð1Þ

where the symbol, ∈, denotes membership and ∉, non-membership. It maps the universe to
the set of only two elements, 0 and 1. One can indicate whether an element belongs or does not
belong to a distinct or a crisp set. Some degree of uncertainty can, however, be allowed as to
whether or not an element belongs to a set. This can be expressed by the membership of an
element to a set by its membership function using fuzzy sets. ‘A fuzzy set is described by vague
or ambiguous properties; hence its boundaries are ambiguous, as illustrated by the fuzzy
boundary for set A in Figure 1b. This shows the vague, ambiguous boundary of a fuzzy set A
on the discourse universe X, the shaded boundary representing the boundary region of A. In
the central (unshaded) region of the fuzzy set, a point a is clearly a member of the set, while
point b is clearly not a member. However, the membership of point c, which is on the bound-
ary region, is ambiguous. If point a is represented by 1 (complete membership) and point b
with 0 (no membership), then point c must have some intermediate value of membership
(partial membership) in fuzzy set A on the interval [0, 1]’ ([9], pp. 24).

Fuzzy set theory was inspired and developed by [8, 10, 53] in order to extend classical set
theory for handling soft (continuous) rather than crisp classifications. A fuzzy set can be
defined as a collection of objects in which the transition from a full membership to a non-
membership is gradual rather than abrupt [10]. A set can be regarded as fuzzy if an element
can partly belong to it, rather than having to belong completely or not at all. Consequently,
fuzzy set theory assigns membership grades to objects which are not restricted to 0 (non-
membership) or 1 (full-membership), but which may locate somewhere between 0 and 1 [43].
A fuzzy set can be expressed mathematically as follows:

A fuzzy set A of a universe X is defined by a membership function μA (vs. characteristic function

XA in a crisp set) such that μA: X ! [1,0]. A fuzzy set A in X is a set of ordered pairs,

ð2Þ

where μA (x) represent the grade of membership of x in A, which associate with each x a real
number in [0,1], and the universe X is always a crisp set.
Degree of vagueness or uncertainty is usually exhibited by many phenomena. The boundaries
of spatial features, for example, often are not clearly defined. Ideas and impressions like
‘steep’, ‘close’ or ‘suitable’ can be better articulated with degrees of membership to a fuzzy
set, rather than with a binary yes/no classification. In human thinking and language, we often
use uncertain or vague concepts. Our thinking and language is not binary, that is, black and
white, zero or one, yes or no. In real life, we add much more variation to our judgements and
classifications. These vague or uncertain concepts are understood and assumed to be fuzzy. We
encounter fuzziness almost everywhere in our everyday lives [54]. With respect to this study of
urban growth, we might look for a suitable site to develop land for housing. The criteria
describing the area that we are looking for could be formulated as shown in Table 2.
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The site should:

Fuzzy Crisp

have a moderate altitude have altitude between 800 and 1000 m

have a favourable slope have slope less than 8
have a favourable aspect have aspect between 175 and 250
be nearby schools be within 40 m to schools
be not close to an airport not be within 1 km of an airport

Table 2. Example of differences between fuzzy and crisp in terms of site suitability.

All of the conditions mentioned in the fuzzy column are vague and uncertain but correspond
to the way we express these conditions in our languages and thinking. Using the classical
approach, the fuzzy conditions would be translated into distinct, sharp or crisp classes, such as
those in the crisp column. Taking the school criteria as an example, if a location falls within the
given criteria (be within 40 m of a school), we would accept it for developing, otherwise it
would be excluded from analysis (Figure 2a). If, however, we allow degrees of membership to
our classes, we can accommodate those locations that just miss a criterion by a few metres.
They may get a low degree of membership, but will be included in the analysis as shown in
Figure 2b, where locations that have distance to school within 40 m assigned full membership
(1.0), and those locations above 40 and below 70 m still have membership but decrease
gradually as the distance increases, and those locations with distance over 70 m assigned no-
membership (0.0), that is, they are definitely not nearby schools.
The fuzzy set membership function is a crucial component of fuzzy set theory and is one of the
building blocks of a fuzzy model because it is used to define the model variables, which are
based upon imprecise and abstract concepts, for example, a ‘young’ or ‘old age’, or a ‘short’ or
‘long’ distance [55]. Although the shape and form of the membership function should accurately
reflect the semantics of the underlying concept in order to represent the real world as closely as
possible, fuzzy systems tend to be extremely tolerant of variations in fuzzy set representations,
which makes the resulting models highly robust [55, 56]. Different membership functions

Figure 2. (a) Crisp set of school criteria and (b) fuzzy set of school criteria.
126 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

represent different fuzzy sets, even though they may have a similar context. A membership
function can generally assume any shape although the surface tends to be a continuous line from
the left to the right edge of the set. Engineering applications tend to use one of the following
parameterized membership functions: Gaussian, triangular, trapezoidal or sinusoidal [51]. The
trapezoidal and sinusoidal functions can present different shapes: symmetric, monotonically
decreasing or monotonically increasing. The different shapes of membership functions are con-
trolled by different parameters in terms of the number and place. There are several different
ways of deciding where and how many membership functions to place on a variable domain.
The most important requirement is that they overlap, but the optimal number will be determined
by experiment and the complexity of the problem. Ross [9] outlines a series of methods which are
used to decide on the placement of membership functions, including the use of intuition or
expert knowledge, genetic algorithms and neural networks. For example, triangular is widely
used in engineering applications, whereas symmetric sinusoidal is commonly used for spatial or
geographical applications.

4. Results and discussion

4.1. Fuzzy accessibility

Accessibility to local road (ALR), accessibility to main road (AMR), accessibility to major road
(AMJR), accessibility to town centre (ATC) and accessibility to employment centres and socioeco-
nomic services (AECSES) were created by computing accessibility to these variables using a
Euclidean distance algorithm [27]. The FCUGM tends, however, not to use the direct result of
applying this technique. This is because the Euclidean distance is based on a spatial linear
function as opposed to the nature of urban development. This results in the FCUGM transforming
the linear results of applying the Euclidean method into a non-linear fuzzy measure of accessibil-
ity using fuzzy set theory.

The first step for measuring accessibility is to calculate the Euclidian distance. This can be
defined as the straight-line distance between two points on a plane [57]. Euclidean distance, or
distance ‘as the crow flies’, can be calculated using Pythagoras’s theorem as expressed in
Eq. (3). The Euclidian distance was calculated using ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 software as follows [57]:

pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
EDAB ¼ AC2 þ CB2 (3)

where
EDAB is the Euclidean distance between the centres of two locations A and B;

C is the hypotenuse of the right triangle;

After the Euclidean distance has been calculated for a particular input variable, the resultant
layer is weighted and standardized (1–100) using the FCUGM according to Eq. (4).
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 127
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∗
EDijk �min½EDijk �
WSEDijk ¼ max ED �min ED W k ∗ 100 (4)
½ ijk � ½ ijk �

where

WSEDijk is the weighted standardized score of Euclidian distance of a cell ij for input variable k
(falling within the range 1–100) EDijK is the original value of Euclidian distance of a cell ij for
input variable k
Wk is the parameter weight for input variable k

After the Euclidean distance has been calculated for a particular input variable, the resultant
layer is weighted and standardized. This was followed by transforming the weighted stan-
dardized accessibility layer into a fuzzy accessibility measure using the FCUGM. Although
there are several types of membership functions (fuzzy sets) such as triangular, trapezoidal,
Gaussian, bell-shaped or sinusoidal, the author adopted the sinusoidal function for the
FCUGM. The rationale for this choice was based on consideration of three criteria: (1) non-
linear parameterization, (2) shape of curve or slope that was relatively easy to interpret and (3)
the function that is smoothly and gradually descending. There are different shapes of the
sinusoidal function; however, the decrease monotonically has been employed in this research
to calculate the accessibility of input variables. This is because according to the results of the
structural analysis conducted on the input variables [31], a relatively similar shape was found
as monotonically decreasing. The sinusoidal function is defined by Eq. (5) and is controlled by
the two parameters P1 and P2 which generally control the slope of the curve as shown in
Figure 3. P1 is equivalent to the maximal elemental value of the domain that acquired a
membership degree of 1.0 (definite membership to a particular set), while P2 is equivalent to
the minimal elemental value of the domain which acquired a membership degree of 0 (no
membership). For a given elemental value, sedijk, in the domain, the membership value can be
computed as follows:

ð5Þ

where

wsedijk is the weighted standardized score of Euclidean distance of a cell ij for input variable k,
and (falling within the range 1–100)

P1 and P2 are the parameters that quantify the distance decay effects of accessibility from a cell
ij to input variable k.
μFuzzy A (wsedij) is the fuzzy accessibility (e.g. to local roads) of a cell ij for input variable k
(falling within the range 1–100);
128 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 3. Accessibility to main road using fuzzy set.

The two parameters P1 and P2 are critically important for urban growth because they reflect
people’s behavioural inclination over decisions about living near or far from a certain variable.
In other words, the two parameters P1 and P2 tend to quantify the distance decay effect of a
particular variable, that is, to what extent people prefer to live near or far from local, main or
major roads, employment centres or the town centre. In the FCUGM, as the distance between
cell xij and an input variable k (such as local roads) increases, the accessibility to that variable
decreases, and the quantity of that decreases is determined by the two parameters P1 and P2
which are calibrated [27].
Using the approach described earlier, five input variables of the FCUGM are generated
through computing fuzzy accessibility to their features including local road, main road, major
road, employment centres and socioeconomic services and town centre. Firstly, the linear
Euclidean accessibility was generated for the five input variables; Figure 4 shows the resultant
linear accessibility of the five input variables.
The process of measuring fuzzy accessibility (Eq. 3) is performed using the ‘Fuzzifier’ model in
the SIM-FCUGM [27–29]. As explained previously, the fuzzy accessibility is controlled by two
fuzzy distance decay parameters denoted as P1 and P2. As has been argued previously, P1 and
P2 are of great importance as they reflect people’s behavioural inclination over decisions about
living near or far from certain variables (e.g. local roads). Thus, in order to investigate the
effects that P1 and P2 might play in terms of spatial accessibility, different values of these two
parameters were tested on fuzzy accessibility to major roads. Figure 5 shows an example of the
original linear Euclidean accessibility to major roads along with nine fuzzy accessibility maps
in accordance with three different values of P1 and three different values of P2. It can be seen
from the original linear Euclidean (Figure 5a) that the accessibility has a linear effect at a
distance. This means that as the distance to the major roads gets larger, the accessibility gets
lower. This has the knock-on effect of meaning that land with low accessibility will have a low
potential of being developed, which is not reflecting the behaviour of decision-makers in terms
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Figure 4. Euclidean linear accessibility to input variables: local roads (ALR), main roads (AMR), major roads (AMJR),
employment centres and socioeconomic services (AECSES) and town centre (TC) of Riyadh city in 2005 (a–e, respec-
tively).

of developing lands. In contrast, it can be noted from the nine fuzzy maps that both high and
low accessibility areas might have a non-linear development potentiality by trading off values
of P1 and P2 parameters.
By examining both maps and figures in Figures 5 and 6, it can be inferred that the fuzzy
accessibility to several features can be characterized through three parts of membership
including ‘full’, ‘part’ and ‘no’ memberships as illustrated in Figure 5a and 6a. Areas with
‘full’ (dark blue) and ‘no’ (brown) membership denote the areas with the highest and lowest
accessibilities, respectively, so they are crisp (0 or 1) and compact to either class. In contrast,
‘part’ membership areas are those in which the accessibility decreases gradually from ‘full’ to
‘no’ membership, and these areas are smooth. The value of P1 controls the amount of areas that
have ‘full’ membership, while P2 controls the areas of ‘no’ membership. As the value of P1
increases, the areas of high accessibility increase; in contrast, as the value of P2 decreases, the
areas of low accessibility increase. The three maps b, c and d of Figure 5 and the three figures b,
c and d of Figure 6, for example, show that the size of areas with high accessibility (blue)
130 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 5. Original linear Euclidean accessibility (a) and fuzzy accessibility to major roads (b–j).

getting larger as the values of P1 increase. The three maps and figures b, e and h, on the
contrary, show that the size of areas with low accessibility (brown) gets larger as the values of
P2 decrease. Interestingly, the diagonal from the top-left to bottom-right exhibits the levels to
which both parameters are traded off against each other. Additionally, the difference between
P1 and P2 values controls the size of areas in which the accessibility surface decreases
smoothly, which represents the area of ‘part’ membership.
It can be seen from both Figures 5 and 6 that fuzzy accessibility has a high capability to mimic
and represent the uncertainty in the behaviour of the human decision-making process in land
development in a very efficient way. For example, one can represent the behaviour of people in
three aspects ‘full membership, ‘part membership’ and ‘no membership’ for those people who
prefer to live ‘near’, ‘fairly near’ and ‘far’ from a certain feature, respectively. Thus, the
numerical distances using fuzzy sets are converted to linguistic words and can be modified
easily by parameters P1 and P2. This feature does not exist in the linear, negative exponential
or inverse power functions. While the latter two functions can generate non-linear accessibility,
the meanings of their parameters are somewhat difficult to interpret. It can be seen that as the
difference between the two parameters gets larger, the size of areas with ‘part’ membership
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Figure 6. Fuzzy membership functions of the nine maps shown in Figure 5.

gets greater. The three maps and figures b, e and h, for example, show the gradual increase of
the smooth areas, represented by green to yellow areas in maps and areas under the curve in
figures. In particular, the b and h maps represent the lowest (30–1 = 29) and highest (70–1 = 69)
differences between P1 and P2, respectively, which as a result decrease and increase the
smooth accessibility areas.
The lower value of P1 results in compact areas with high accessibility but only for those cells
situated close to the feature of interest. This implies that only areas located very near to major
roads have a high potential for development compared to other areas (see maps b, e and h in
Figure 5 and figures b, e and h in Figure 6).
132 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

In contrast, the higher value of P1 expands the size of areas with high accessibility further
outward from the feature of interest (see maps d, g and i in Figure 5 and figures d, g and i in
Figure 6). The value of P2 decreases, however, as the size of areas with low accessibility
increases. This results in more cells possessing a low potential of being developed. Therefore,
the lower the value of P2, the less the areas of land for development and vice versa (see maps b,
e and h in Figure 5). It can be deduced that P1 and P2 parameters attempt to represent the
behaviour of people when deciding whether to develop land near or far from an input variable
(in the above example of major roads). The diagonal from the top-left to bottom-right of
Figures 5 and 6 shows three different behaviours of people, those who prefer to develop land
very close, moderately close and far to major roads. The optimal values of P1 and P2 parameters
were calibrated [27].

4.2. Fuzzy urban density

The urban density variable is broadly calculated based on the proportion of developed cells
within a neighbourhood (kernel matrix). The configuration of a neighbourhood, such as its
shape and size might, however, have an influence on the resulting urban density layer. It has
been argued that the circular shape of a neighbourhood has no bias in any direction as
opposed to rectangular or square neighbourhoods which generate significant distortions [58].
As a result, the FCUGM adopts a circular shape of neighbourhood (kernel matrix). In terms of
the size of the neighbourhood, according to [59], there are no rules of thumb or theoretical
basis for specifying the neighbourhood size when computing the urban agglomeration variable
(urban density or development density). In most urban CA models, the neighbourhood size is
decided arbitrarily based on the view of the modeller or the objective of the study. In contrast, in
the FCUGM, the neighbourhood size is considered as a parameter that is calibrated and opti-
mized along with other parameters during the calibration process. The size of a neighbourhood
is calibrated [27] to generate the urban density variable, and its optimized size value reflects the
degree of pressure resulting from the developed urban density within a neighbourhood of a
non-developed cell. The urban density input variable is computed using Eq. (6).
P
Dijk
UDij ¼ (6)
πζ2

where
UDij is the development urban density of a cell ij;

Dijk is the number of urban developed cells in the neighbourhood k of the cell ij and ζ is the
radius parameter of the circular neighbourhood k.
Once the urban density has been calculated, the resultant layer is weighted and standardized
(1–100) by the FCUGM using Eq. (7).
� � ∗
UDij � min UDij
WSUDij ¼ � � � � W k ∗ 100 (7)
max UDij � min UDij
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where
WSUDij is the weighted standardized score of the urban density of a cell ij;

UDij is the original value of urban density of a cell ij and

Wk is the parameter weight for input variable k.

This is followed by transforming the weighed standardized urban density layer into a fuzzy
urban density using the FCUGM. The membership function type, shape and parameters that
are used for measuring the fuzzy accessibility are applied for the fuzzy urban density as well
and calculated as shown in Eq. (8).

ð8Þ

where

Fuzzy UD is the standardized score of urban density of cell ij for input variable k (falling within
the range 1–100);
wsudij is the weighted standardized score of the urban density of a cell ij and
P1 and P2 are the parameters that quantify the distance decay effects of urban density for a cell ij.
The only difference is that urban density is calculated using monotonically increasing sinusoi-
dal function, rather than decreasing one as used for calculating the accessibility, because
increasing shape could better fit the effect of urban density on urban expansion as found in
the structural analysis [31]. By the monotonically increasing function, those high values of the
domain (in this case urban density values) acquired a membership degree of 1.0, and because
urban expansion took place in relatively high density urban areas, such shape is employed. As
previously discussed, developers prefer to build near to existing developed land to take
advantage of available services, facilities and infrastructure. The urban density input variable
is computed by calculating the proportion of developed lands within a neighbourhood. This
process is performed using the ‘Fuzzifier’ in the SIM-FCUGM [27–29]. Urban density is a
smooth surface controlled by the size of a neighbourhood along with two distance decay
parameters P1 and P2. In the FCUGM, the size of a neighbourhood ranges between 2 and 40
cells, with a cell size of 20 m.
Figure 7 shows the urban density of Riyadh city in 2005, with five different sizes of neigh-
bourhood including 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40. It can be seen from Figure 7 that as the neighbourhood
increases in size, the urban density surface becomes smoother and the size of areas with high
urban density also increases. In contrast, as the size of the neighbourhood decreases, the
surface becomes more compact and areas with low urban density increase. This is mainly
because a large neighbourhood size has a higher potential for urban cells to be located within
it. One might assume that the small size of the neighbourhood restricts high urban density
134 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 7. Urban density of Riyadh city in 2005 with five different neighbourhood sizes 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 (a–e),
respectively.

areas to being close to existing built-up areas. On the contrary, a large neighbourhood results in
high urban density areas expanding outwards from the existing built-up areas.

In terms of the distance decay parameters P1 and P2, the two parameters for urban density have
the same general effect as accessibility with little difference in interpretation of the parameters’
effects. According to Figure 8, as the value of P2 decreases, only areas in close proximity to the
very high urban density increase (dark blue areas in maps b, c and d decrease with a decrease
of P2 value and become more compact). As the value of P1 decreases, areas with a very high
density increase all over the city (dark blue areas in maps b, e and h increase with a decrease of
P1 value and become more scattered). The difference between P1 and P2 values controls the
size of areas in which the urban density surface decreases smoothly (sky blue to yellow).

4.3. Fuzzy constraints factors

The slope and altitude input variables are derived directly from digital elevation model (DEM)
using ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 software [60]. This step is followed by three procedures for weighting,
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 135
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Figure 8. (a) Original and (b–j) fuzzy urban density.

standardization and fuzziness using Eq. (5). The physical topography of Riyadh confines to some
extent the direction of urban growth. This is because the majority of urban development takes
place in areas with a relatively moderate altitude and flat slope, while those areas with a steep
slope and a high altitude are left without development. However, the range of slope and altitude
variables varies according to the values of distance decay parameters P1 and P2, which together
identify three areas including the preferable range of altitude and slope (highly suitable areas),
the non-preferable (non-suitable areas) and the partly preferable (moderately suitable areas).
These classifications reflect the behaviour of people developing land. As can be seen from
Figures 9 and 10, as the value of P2 decreases, those non-suitable areas with a high altitude or a
steep slope (red) increase. The highly suitable areas with a low altitude or a flat slope (blue), on
the contrary, increase as the values of P1 increase. The size of partly suitable areas increases as the
difference between P1 and P2 values increases. The d, i and b maps of Figures 9 and 10 show the
largest areas of highly non-suitable areas, highly suitable areas and the partly suitable areas,
respectively. The optimal values of P1 and P2 parameters were calibrated [27].
The planning area (PA) layer was generated by on-screen digitizing of boundaries of the new
areas where planning applications were approved and urban development was allowed. The
sources of planning areas are the Master Plans 1, 2, 3 of Riyadh city which were established by
136 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 9. Original altitude (a) and fuzzy altitude (b–j).

the Arriyadh Development Authority (ADA). The PA layer has a binary value of 1 for ‘Planned
Area’ and 0 for ‘non-planned area’. The excluded area (EA) layer was created from several
sources such as slope images, altitude images, classified remote sensing images to derive
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 137
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Figure 10. Original slope (a) and fuzzy slope (b–j).

agricultural areas and zoning regulation areas to reflect those in the master plan. Then, all of
these layers were integrated and overlaid into one layer called EA, which has a binary value 1
for ‘non-excluded area’ and 0 for ‘excluded area’.
138 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

4.4. Urban growth driving forces as fuzzy variables

This section demonstrates and discusses the results of computing the input variables that form
the four driving forces of urban growth. The four driving forces, (1) transport support factor
(TSF), (2) urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor (UAAF), (3) topographical constraints
factor (TCF) and (4) planning policies and regulations factor (PPRF), will be converted into
linguistic variables (Figure 11) and then entered into the FCUGM [28, 29] for modelling the
spatial pattern of urban growth for Riyadh.

4.4.1. Transport support factor (TSF)

The TSF is based on three input variables: (1) weighted fuzzy local road accessibility (WFLRA),
(2) weighted fuzzy main road accessibility (WFMRA) and (3) weighted fuzzy major road
accessibility (WFMJRA). The TSF is generated in two stages: (1) integration of input variables
and (2) definition of fuzzy sets. Under (1), the three input variables are integrated into one layer,
called Transport Tij, using a linear combination approach as shown in Eq. (9).

T ij ¼ WFLRAij þ WFMRAij þ WFMJRAij

(9)

Under (2), the Transport layer is used to create the TSF by transforming this layer into
linguistic (fuzzy) variable by defining a series of three overlapping fuzzy sets. Although there
is no rule for specifying the number of fuzzy sets for a linguistic (fuzzy) variable, most of the
fuzzy modelling studies used three or five sets depending on the complexity of the problem.
Since the TSF includes three input variables, which have the same spatial characteristics (all of
them related to road networks), three fuzzy sets were selected. The TSF is composed of three
fuzzy sets: Weak, Moderate and Strong. Each set describes a different condition of TSF.
Figure 11 depicts the placement and shape of these three fuzzy sets (membership functions)
and Eqs. (10)–(12) provide the mathematical models used to calculate them. The shape of the

Figure 11. Membership functions of TSF driving force.

 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 139
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fuzzy sets follows a sinusoidal function. The fuzzy sets Weak, Moderate and Strong show a
monotonically decreasing, symmetric and monotonically increasing functions, respectively.
Although the shape of these fuzzy sets is usually decided by intuition or expert knowledge,
in the FCUGM, they are optimized [27]. The authors believe that deciding the shape of the
fuzzy sets in a subjective manner would result in restricting interpretations of the results.
The FCUGM optimizes the positions of a fuzzy set by fixing the central value of that set and
calibrating the width or the range. This approach can be regarded as a hybrid and has two
advantages: (1) it integrates the automatic self-tuned and expert knowledge techniques which
could minimize the complexity of the problem (calibration urban CA model) and (2) decreases
the number of parameters to be calibrated which reduces the complexity of the calibration
process itself and the computation time required. According to Figure 11, the letters a–f are
parameters that control the width of the fuzzy sets to be calibrated, while the numbers 10, 40,
60 and 90 are the fixed central values.

Linguistic Expression Membership Function

ð10Þ

ð11Þ

ð12Þ

4.4.2. Urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor (UAAF)

The urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor (UAAF) is formed using three input variables
including weighted fuzzy urban density (WFUD), weighted fuzzy town centre accessibility
(WFTCA) and weighted fuzzy employment centres and socioeconomic services accessibility
(WFECSESA). The UAAF is generated in two stages: (1) integration of input variables and (2)
140 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

definition of fuzzy sets. Under (1), the three input variables are integrated into one layer, called
Urban Agglomeration and Attractiveness UAAij, using a linear combination approach as shown
in Eq. (13).

UAAij ¼ WFUDij þ WFTCAij þ WFECSESAij

(13)

Under (2), the urban agglomeration and attractiveness layer is used to create the UAAF by
transforming this layer into linguistic (fuzzy) variable, UAAF, by defining a series of five
overlapping fuzzy sets. The motivation of selecting five sets for UAAF, rather than three as
TSF, is that UAAF is formed by integrating three input variables that have different character-
istics (urban density, employment centres and socioeconomic services and town centre). Thus,
the degree of vagueness or uncertainty of this driving force is higher than TSF, meaning that it
could be more appropriate for the UAAF driving force to be expressed with a higher number
of fuzzy sets. Thus, the UAAF is composed of five fuzzy sets namely Very Low, Low, Medium,
High and Very High. Each set describes a different condition of UAAF. Figure 12 depicts the
placement and shape of these five fuzzy sets (membership functions) and Eqs. (14)–(18)
provide the mathematical models used to calculate those sets. In Figure 12, the letters A–J are
parameters that control the width of the fuzzy sets which are to be calibrated [27], while the
numbers 25.5, 27.5, 47.5, 52.5, 72.5 and 77.5 are the fixed central values.
Linguistic Expression Membership Function

ð14Þ

ð15Þ

ð16Þ
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 141
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ð17Þ

ð18Þ

4.4.3. Topographical constraints factor (TCF)

The TCF was based on two input variables: (1) weighted slope (WSG) and (2) weighted altitude
(WA). The TCF is generated in two stages: (1) input variables integration and (2) definition of
fuzzy sets. Under (1), the two input variables are integrated into one layer, called Topographical
Constraints TCij, using a linear combination approach as expressed in Eq. (19).

TCij ¼ WSGij þ WAij (19)

The topographical constraints layer was used to create the TCF by transforming this layer into a
linguistic (fuzzy) variable by defining a series of three overlapping fuzzy sets. TCF is composed of
three fuzzy sets namely slightly favourable (SM), moderately favourable (MF) and considerably

Figure 12. Membership functions of UAAF driving force.

142 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 13. Membership functions of the TCF driving force.

favourable (CF). Each set describes a different condition of the TCF. Figure 13 depicts the
placement and shape of these three fuzzy sets (membership functions). Eqs. (20)–(22) provide
the mathematical models for calculating these sets. According to Figure 13, the letters A–F are
parameters which control the width of the fuzzy sets and are to be calibrated, while the
numbers 10, 40, 60 and 90 are the fixed central values.
Linguistic Expression Membership Function

ð20Þ

ð21Þ

ð22Þ
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 143
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4.4.4. Planning policies and regulations factor (PPRF)

The PPRF is generated based on two input variables: (1) planning area (PA) and (2) excluded
area (EA). These input variables are binary variables. The PPR is computed by combining the
two variables as shown in Eq. (23).

PPRtij ¼ EAtij ∗PAtij (23)

Linguistic Expression Membership Function

ð24Þ

ð25Þ

PPRF is then transformed into linguistic variables comprising two fuzzy sets namely Suitable
and Non-Suitable. Each set describes a different condition of the TCF. Eqs. (24) and (25)
provide the mathematical models for calculating these sets.
The three fuzzy input variables, TSF, UAAF and TCF, which drive the urban growth in the
FCUGM, consist of different membership functions. Al-Ahmadi et al. [27] showed and
discussed the calibrated fuzzy input variable parameters using genetic algorithm (GA), paral-
lel simulated annealing (PSA) and expert knowledge (EK). The calibrated fuzzy input param-
eters have similar patterns for each of the three algorithms (GA, PSA and EK), scenarios and
over all periods with low variations. As an example, in relation to the TSF, the average of the
calibrated A,B,C,D,E and F parameters for the three fuzzy sets weak (W), moderate (M) and
strong (S) that form the TSF fuzzy input variable accounts for 15, 33, 18, 77, 74 and 81,
respectively. Figure 14 depicts the optimized shape and placement of the three fuzzy sets for
TSF. These optimized values reflect the area that is covered by each fuzzy set, that is, the
quantity of TSF that belongs to each set. The A-B values (15–33) for the weak set indicate that
locations with TSF values between 1 and 15 have a weak transport support (crisp set of Weak,
i.e. full membership function). Those locations above 15 and below 33 are partly weak, that is,
they might gain both weak and moderate support according to their degree of membership
(fuzzy set of weak). And those with TSF values above 33 do not belong to the weak set. As the
range of the calibrated values between the B parameter of weak set and the C parameter of
moderate set increase, the overlap between the two sets and the quantity of fuzzy values
144 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 14. The mean optimized fuzzy sets for transportation support factor (TSF).

increases. Accordingly, as can be seen in Figure 14, the overlap between the weak and moder-
ate sets (accounting for 15 as a range) is larger than the overlap between the moderate and
strong sets (accounting for 3 as a range).
In terms of fuzzy modelling, it is better for the two adjacent sets to be intersected at 0.5
(crossover point) degree of membership, which provides a wider overlap area. In this sense,
the larger the overlap areas between two sets, the better the results. This is because it allows
different sets to use the same TSF values but with a different membership function according
to the degree of ambiguity. The same interpretation can be applied to the other two factors
UAAF and TCF.

5. Conclusions

This chapter presented an example of how fuzzy set theory can be applied to model urban
growth factors and driving forces. The mathematical models for measuring, computing and
addressing fuzzy input variables (accessibility and urban density) and fuzzy driving forces of
the urban growth of Riyadh were discussed. The urban growth factors were established using
fuzzy set theory, which quantified the effect of a distance decay using fuzziness. The driving
forces of urban growth were designed for use with linguistics variables, which closely reflect
human behaviours and attitudes regarding real-world phenomena. Such an approach pro-
vides a transparent method for interpreting the curve of a distance decay using linguistic
variables.

The results indicate that fuzzy accessibility and fuzzy urban density factors are capable of
mimicking and representing the uncertainty in the behaviour of the human decision-making
 Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS 145
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process in land development in a very efficient manner. The behaviour of people was
represented as one of three classes: ‘full membership’, ‘partial membership’ and ‘no member-
ship’, corresponding to people who prefer to live ‘near’, ‘fairly near’ and ‘far’ from a certain
feature, respectively. The driving forces of urban growth—the transportation support factor
(TSF), urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor (UAAF) and topographical constraints
factor (TCF)—were established by integrating fuzzy urban growth factors and were designed
for use with linguistics variables, which closely reflect human behaviours and attitudes regard-
ing real-world phenomena. These fuzzy driving forces were designed in an attempt to model
the spatial patterns of urban growth using natural language statements, which made the
modelling process more realistic and transparent than other approaches.
The author concluded that instead of defining the factors and driving forces of urban growth
using deterministic equations, the FCUGM would apply fuzzy logic control to generate fuzzy
transition rules. Such an approach is more transparent and more similar to the real processes of
urban growth while also representing the uncertainty of various constraints and driving forces
underlying urban growth. In conclusion, the chapter demonstrated that it was possible to treat
the complexity and uncertainty inherent in decision-making processes in terms of site selection,
which is usually a subjective process that follows individuals’ preferences in which people
generally use linguistic constructs for the evaluation of environmental or social situations.

Acknowledgements

The author acknowledges with gratitude King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology for
the accomplishment of this work.

Author details

Khalid Al-Ahmadi
Address all correspondence to: [email protected]
National Centre for Remote Sensing Technology, Space and Aeronautics Research Institute,
King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

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 Chapter 8

Quantification
Quantification and
and Prediction
Prediction of
of Land
Land Consumption
Consumption
and
and Its
Its Climate
Climate Effects
Effects in
in the
the Rhineland
Rhineland Metropolitan
Metropolitan
Area
Area Based
Based on
on Multispectral
Multispectral Satellite
Satellite Data
Data and
and Land-
Land-Use Modelling
Use Modelling 1975–2030
1975–2030

Andreas Rienow, Nora Jennifer Schneevoigt and

Frank Thonfeld

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79287

Abstract

Land use and soil sealing are particularly high in metropolitan regions. They bring
about conflicts of use: the demand for housing, business and economy is enormous,
but at the same time, quality of life depends on a network of green spaces. With the
aid of remote sensing, the change of urban areas can be observed and quantified over
time. This study investigates the change dynamics of land cover and land use in North
Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) with multispectral satellite data, focussing on imperviousness.
Landsat data is used to monitor and analyse half a century of landscape development.
In addition, recent trends in land surface temperature (LST) are estimated from MODIS
data. Changes to the LST are caused by land cover and land use changes amongst other
factors. Accordingly, a link can be shown between the medium-term LST changes and
the hotspots of landscape transformation in NRW. Due to global climate change, land
consumption is increasingly affecting the densely populated urban areas, which calls for
measures to increase their resilience. The results of the study can be used by decision
makers to assess the environmental impact of land use, the loss of agricultural land or
the resulting effects of climate change.

Keywords: land consumption, land use and land cover change, land use modelling,
climate adaptation, land surface temperature trends

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
152 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

1. Introduction

Anthropogenic climate change is widely accepted as a major challenge to human society.

Climate change is a worldwide phenomenon that is also described in detail for Germany [1].
The mitigation of climate change impacts is one strategy to deal with the consequences of a
changing climate. Climate change-related events are increased flooding frequency, increased
frequency of storm events, heat waves or droughts, amongst other things. Nonetheless, most
of the coming consequences of climate change have been caused in the past, fostered by the
release of greenhouse gases [2]. Even if climate mitigation strategies do succeed, this will
not prevent us from increasing average air temperatures and the hazards mentioned above
[2]. The means we are taking today are supposed to limit the expected temperature rise to a
certain level, e.g. the two degrees´ goal compared to pre-industrial levels as declared by the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In other words, tem­
peratures will increase in the next decades even if the agenda of the UNFCCC is implemented
successfully. Therefore, climate mitigation will not be sufficient to prepare the world’s inhab­
itants for future conditions [2].

It is well documented that climate change impacts differ widely in a global perspective [1, 2].
However, even on a regional or local scale, there are pronounced differences. Vegetation in
general and forests in particular function as a buffer against warming, for example, whereas
artificial surfaces such as urban fabric often have contrasting characteristics and heat up
easily. This leads to an increased vulnerability of urban areas against climate change. Many
places of the world have experienced dramatic land cover and land use changes over the past
decades, usually characterised by the conversion of natural environments into artificial land­
scapes such as industrial cropland and urban areas. Although some experts argue that land
use change has an impact on river runoff [3], it is not yet well understood how climate change
relates to land use change. At the same time, many administrative units and urban decision
makers have identified the necessity to take action against climate change. Besides climate
mitigation programmes, they have started implementing climate adaptation strategies for
sustainable urban life. Moreover, urban areas host the majority of people in most parts of the
world, hence their particular importance.
In industrial societies, cities often experience money scarcity and need to cooperate with one
another on a broader scale to bridge the financial gaps. German metropolitan areas are con­
sortia offering approaches of integrated strategies for regional development. They integrate
the strengths of economy, science and the public sector, link urban and rural areas and imple­
ment regional projects towards sustainable development. In particular, in conurbations, the
need for land leads to conflicts of use since the demand for both housing space and land for
economic development is enormous. At the same time, it is important to ensure and improve
the livability of the region by providing and sustaining green areas. Rural and urban areas are
supposed to complement each other to satisfy all interests. There are, however, big challenges
regarding infrastructure planning, energy supply and organisation of our living environment.
The demand for recreational sites, housing, traffic and commercial space must be balanced
and translated into purposeful planning structures.
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In 2002, the federal government of Germany presented a national sustainability strategy,

“Perspektiven für Deutschland” (“Outlooks for Germany”), in which they defined the so-
called 30-ha goal. Its purpose is to reduce Germany’s land consumption to a maximum of
30 ha per day until 2020—meanwhile the time limit has been extended to 2030 [4]. Land
consumption is commonly defined as the conversion of agricultural and silvicultural areas
into built-up areas [5], where built-up areas include also non-impervious surfaces like parks
or golf courses. Land consumption in Germany currently amounts to 66 ha per day [4]. While
daily land consumption has decreased over the past years, it was still at 10 ha per day in the
German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in 2011 alone [6]. The motivations for
the 30-ha goal are of both qualitative and quantitative natures: soil, the essential component
for food production, is a finite resource. Landscape structure is a considerable factor for fauna
and flora, which again is significant for the existence of individual species. The consumption
of contiguous areas leads to a dissection of associated habitats and has various impacts on
several biocenoses. Furthermore, the cultural landscape, grown over centuries, might lose
its outstanding characteristics. Considering the ageing society and population decline, an
increase of built-up areas also involves growing maintenance costs for supply lines, sewer
systems, roads, etc. [7].

Considering this background, we assess land use and land cover change (LULCC) in NRW
over the past four decades with a focus on the Rhineland Metropolitan area. We demonstrate
the relationship between LULCC and land surface temperature, a parameter linked to cli­
mate. Finally, we develop different land use scenarios to offer options for future development.

2. Study site: The Rhineland Metropolitan area

The Rhineland Metropolitan area is located in the western part of NRW (Figure 1). It is a
federation of 35 districts and cities in the realm of the district governments of Cologne and
Duesseldorf. Figure 1 shows the mean normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) [8] of
NRW, calculated from a series of Landsat-8 OLI summer time images taken between 2014
and 2017. The index is sensitive to vegetation condition and cover. Green tones indicate high
vegetation cover; red tones indicate non-vegetated areas. Hence, red areas in Figure 1 can be
interpreted as mainly urban areas. They are concentrated along the Rhine River and in the
Ruhr area, a former coal-mining district and industrial hotspot of Central Europe. Other areas
characterised by low vegetation cover (red areas) are formed by the Rhenish open pit mining
area in the western part of NRW. The central southern part of NRW and its eastern part are
characterised by high NDVI values due to high forest cover. North of the Ruhr area, NRW is
characterised by agricultural use.

Besides large industrial districts, the Rhineland Metropolitan area is characterised by inten­
sive agriculture supported by fertile soils and favourable climatic conditions. It is one of the
most populous areas in Europe with 690 inhabitants per square kilometre. As most parts of
the world, NRW is experiencing urbanisation with a population increase in larger agglomera­
tions with strong economies and a population decrease in rural areas. Migration takes place
154 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 1. Rhineland Metropolitan area (black outline) in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), western Germany. The mean
NDVI image shows urban areas and the Rhenish open pit mining area in the western part of NRW in red tones; vegetated
areas are depicted in green tones. Yellowish tones can be attributed to agricultural areas.

between rural and urban areas, but there is also migration from outside NRW. Figure 2 shows
the population dynamics in NRW between 2005 and 2015. In larger urban areas such as Bonn,
Cologne, Duesseldorf or Muenster, the numbers of inhabitants are increasing, whereas the
greater Ruhr area suffers from a loss of population. The Ruhr area is characterised by a huge
economic transformation after the breakdown of the coal and steel industry. In this context,
the town of Gelsenkirchen exemplifies current population decrease (Figure 2) within a gener­
ally densely populated urban area. However, declining population numbers pose also a rural
challenge in NRW.
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Figure 2. Population dynamics in NRW between 2005 and 2015 (data source: © IT.NRW, Duesseldorf, 2018).

3. Methods and data

3.1. Long-term LULCC assessment

Landscapes can be characterised by either land cover or land use. The former refers to the
different materials on the Earth’s surface such as vegetation, bare soil or water bodies. Land
use, on the other hand, describes how these surfaces are used by humans, e.g. as forests, parks
or commercial areas. Information on land cover and land use is usually provided by agen­
cies in the form of statistical figures often relating to administrative units. Therefore, small-
scale heterogeneities are often not captured. Remote sensing products based on satellite data
156 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

or aerial images can help detect structures, processes and dynamics at various spatial and
temporal scales. Thanks to long-term satellite programmes like the Landsat programme by
NASA, there are image archives that cover a period of over 45 years. Since 2015, this valuable
long-term archive is complemented by data from the Sentinel satellites within the European
Copernicus programme (http://www.copernicus.eu/). The Satellite image archives comprise
spectral information, which can be visualised as coloured images for various purposes but
are mostly used for scientific analyses. Currently, the Landsat-7 and Landsat-8 satellites are
collecting data of the same area every 16 days. The scanning track is around 180 km wide and
has a spatial resolution of 30 m [9]. Sentinel-2 collects data in similar spectral bands in the vis­
ible, near-infrared and short-wave infrared spectrum. Its spatial resolution is 10 m, 20 m and
60 m, respectively. The scanning track is 290 km wide, and repetition time is up to 5 days with
Sentinel-2A and B operating in one constellation [10]. The calibrated data can be compiled
into time series, which allow an insight into the Earth’s dynamics.

Although man-made land consumption propagates rather slowly compared to the effects of
most natural hazards such as storms or floods, its constant behaviour and its widespread
occurrence make it a serious threat to any well-balanced environment. Monitoring at regular
intervals is required to accurately quantify recent land consumption rates. In this example, we
classify satellite images of the Rhineland metropolitan region from 1975, 1984, 2001 and 2015
using the Random Forests classifier [11].

3.2. Land surface temperature (LST) trends

The satellite sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), developed

to observe the dynamics of the Earth’s surface, is recording data since 2000. Many products
can be derived from its data, including datasets on the condition of the atmosphere, land
surfaces as well as oceans and ice/snow expanses [12]. One of the land products is the dataset
MOD11A2, which holds information on land surface temperature and emissivity. The data
has a spatial resolution of 1 km and is provided as a composite at a repetition rate of 8 days
[13, 14]. This data is available free of charge and can be explored using cloud-based applica­
tions like the Google Earth Engine platform (https://earthengine.google.com/), which is cur­
rently free of charge for scientific purposes. By calculating trends, it is possible to visualise
regions of heating or cooling in a specific period. Further analyses are needed to reveal the
causes for these trends, though.

Here, we calculate LST trends with different methods as there is no agreement on an optimal
algorithm. First, we compute a simple linear trend per pixel only considering data from July
and August between 2000 and 2015. In doing so, we can assess long-term effects of summer
LST. Second, we make use of the Annual-Aggregated-Trends (AAT) method implemented in
the “greenbrown” package [15, 16] using the free statistical software R [17]. This method cal­
culates trends on annual aggregated time series using the annual mean and an ordinary least
squares (OLS) regression. The significance of the trend is estimated using the Mann-Kendall
test. The AAT method accounts for seasonal effects and considers all observations, thereby
assessing annual effects rather than seasonal effects.
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3.3. Land use and land cover modelling

Land consumption and the ecological problems associated with it are a huge unresolved chal­
lenge for Germany. Even in shrinking regions, urban sprawl can be observed. Land use and
land cover modelling can shed light on processes, causes and effects of urban growth—socially
and ecologically. There are several types of land use and land cover models. Spatially explicit
models often simulate the future urban structure based on classified satellite data. Cellular
automata (CA) are typical “bottom-up” models, which depict cities as systems and try to com­
prehend their complexity. They combine spatial units and model, based on spatial structures
in a cellular environment, neighbourhood relations and simple transformation rules.

To model the land consumption in the Rhineland Metropolitan area, the cellular automaton
SLEUTH is applied. The model was developed at the University of California in Santa Barbara

Figure 3. Rules for growth of SLEUTH’s simulation cycle (adapted from [21, 22]).
158 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

(USA) back in 1996 and was used to answer various issues in many different cities [18, 19]. The
land use maps serve as the main data basis; classifications from 2010 and 2015 are used to cali­
brate the CA. For SLEUTH, the binary version of the data with a spatial resolution of 100 m
is sufficient to distinguish impervious from non-impervious surfaces. In its core, SLEUTH is
an urban growth model. Its name is an acronym that consists of its main input data: slope,
land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade. “Exclusion” includes all those
areas where urban growth is restricted (e.g. nature reserves). Five growth coefficients control
the four rules of the CA. These include spontaneous growth, which simulates the random
development of settlements in their distinct neighbourhood, the growth of city centres, exten­
sive growth in the direct neighbourhood and specific road-influenced growth (Figure 3).

The calibration of the model is necessary to synchronise the individual coefficients and to
calculate the volume of the settlement areas to be distributed. It is possible to implement
different scenarios for land consumption after calibration. In this study, the base year is 2015.
One decade after the deadline of the 30-ha goal, the year 2030 is defined as the final year of
the simulation, to demonstrate how the Rhineland Metropolitan area will look like both if the
goal is achieved and, more importantly, if the goal cannot be reached [20]. For the simulation
of land consumption, three scenarios are defined:

• Scenario A: “sustainable development”. The 30-ha goal has been adopted by municipal
planning, economy and the general public. Inner-urban development takes precedence over
urban expansion. The focus lies on space-saving designs; development of land-intensive
housing is reduced. Residents use public transportation rather than individual transport.
• Scenario B: “business as usual”. Land consumption continues at the pace of the past.
Caused by economic developments, land consumption is on the rise again, after a short-
term decrease in the early 2000s. Cities are expanding, and the process of densification is
advancing as well. Most of the settlement area is used for single-family homes. The con­
struction of apartment buildings only accounts for 10% of the settlement area.
• Scenario C: “desire to live in a green area”. Land consumption is increasing. The main
driver is the increased construction of single-family homes. Cities are expanding rather
than densifying inner-city areas. The “green meadow” is the preferred location for the con­
struction of commercial areas and logistic centres. The parish-pump politics of the munici­
palities lead to an increasing designation of commercial areas in the periphery. The ageing
population causes remnant effects, while society is oriented towards single households; the
demand for housing rises.

4. Results

4.1. Remote sensing in support of the 30-ha goal

The maps resulting from the LULCC classification differentiate between water, arable land,
grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest, open-pit mines as well as low,
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medium and high levels of imperviousness. A low level of imperviousness is defined as con­
taining less than 40% impervious surfaces, medium level as 40 to 80% impervious surfaces
and high level as more than 80% impervious surfaces per pixel. Figure 4 shows how land
consumption has altered the region’s settlement structure. The impervious surfaces are con­
stantly increasing since 1975, while arable land and grassland are decreasing. The analysis of
the region’s satellite images shows that impervious surfaces comprised about 126,800 ha in
1975. 40 years later, impervious surfaces have almost doubled, amounting to 245,600 ha in
2015. Between 2010 and 2015, land consumption was as high as 8 ha per day in the Rhineland
Metropolitan area alone. It should be kept in mind that the goal for 2030 is to stay below 30 ha
per day—nationwide. Increasing land consumption as well as the densification of urban areas
not only affects our immediate living environment; they also have measurable impacts on the
Earth’s radiation budget and therefore on micro- and mesoclimate. Figure 4 shows that some
hotspots of land use change pop up in the LST trend map as places of heating and cooling.

Figure 4. LULCC maps of 1975, 1984, 2001 and 2015 as well as LST linear trends of the Rhineland Metropolitan area
(adapted from [23]).
160 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Most prominent and shown in red indicating heating are the open pit mines of the Rhenish
lignite mining area. The respective dump sites—meanwhile recultivated with vegetation—
show cooling trends, indicated by blue colours. Other areas of LST warming trends are urban
areas related to the cities of Cologne, Krefeld, Duesseldorf and Duisburg.

Figure 5 depicts trends in land surface temperature for the entire NRW, where LST trends
from July and August between 2000 and 2015 are shown in Figure 5a. This figure comple­
ments the LST trend map in Figure 4 but extends further east and covers areas beyond the
Rhineland Metropolitan area. Accordingly, it shows some additional eastern hotspots of
warming (red) and a few areas of cooling (blue). Areas that show no trend are depicted in
yellow. Statistically irrelevant areas have not been masked out in Figure 4 and Figure 5a.
The hotspots are primarily urban areas; the cities of Krefeld and Duisburg as well as the
western part of Cologne are easy to spot. Most of the named regions have an increased level
of imperviousness and experience urban sprawl as a consequence of population growth
(Figure 2). Usually, such alterations happen at the expense of green cover and agricultural
land. Agricultural and vegetated areas usually display a cooling effect as a consequence of
the vegetation’s evaporation.

Densified urban areas on the other hand are commonly characterised by excessive heating com­
pared to their surroundings, since runoff is accelerated and man-made materials heat up con­
siderably. The newly developed open-cast mining areas in the Rhenish lignite mining region are
also areas of significant heating, mainly caused by the removal of vegetation and the exposure
of soil, sand and sediments. In addition to that, groundwater has to be drained in the excavation
area, which leads to a shortfall of water and a diminished cooling effect of evapotranspiration.
The mining process also exposes sand and coal seams to the surface, which heat up more than
the cultivated land and the forests that covered the region before. Other areas that have shown

Figure 5. Trends of LST: (a) linear trend of July and august observations between 2000 and 2015 and (b) significant trends
of all observations between 2000 and 2015 based on AAT.
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an increase in LST are further east in vegetated areas (see Figure 2). The warming here is prob­
ably the result of forest damage and degradation caused by storms like Kyrill in 2007 [23].

Areas of summer cooling trends are primarily surfaces that have been classified as arable land
or grassland in 2001 as well as in 2015 but also recultivated opencast mining sites (Figure 4).
A possible explanation for this cooling is that the harvest date of the crops may have been
delayed from year to year, so that the fields were vegetated for a longer period, hence the pro­
longed vegetative cooling effect. Another possible cause could be the cultivation of crops like
corn and sugar beets that are harvested in autumn as opposed to the common winter cereals
like wheat and barley, which are harvested in July and August. The impact of land use change
on the surface temperature has not yet been fully investigated and shows different patterns
for different time periods. In contrast to Figure 5a, in which only the LST trend of the summer
months between 2000 and 2015 is shown, Figure 5b displays the statistically significant trends
(p < 0.05) for all measured values based on AAT, i.e. the whole course of the year has been
considered. The patterns are identical to some extent, as seen in the areas of opencast mining,
but for some parts, they differ considerably.

Figure 5b makes two things abundantly clear: on the one hand, areas with statistically sig­
nificant trends are predominantly detected in urban spaces and to some extent in agricultural
land and forests. On the other hand, the trends indicate a rise in LST nearly everywhere—up
to 3 K in urban spaces and agricultural land and even more in forests. Only a few recultivated
opencast mines show a striking decrease in temperature. The temperature increase in urban
spaces is caused by the expansion and concentration of urban structures. The temperature
increase in agricultural land could be caused by increasing periods of drought in spring, fall
and winter, when the fields lack vegetation regulating temperature. If and to what extent
crop rotations or other causes can influence the change in LST has not been investigated yet.
However, our findings are in line with other studies that show correlations between land use
change, vegetation decrease and LST increase [24].

The cooling effect of recultivated opencast mines is juxtaposed to the long-term warming of
newly developed mining areas in Figure 6. Cooling already sets in when a population of pio­
neer plants develops on formerly barren land, regulating water and radiation budget. During
vegetation growth and succession, biomass, the level of transpiration and finally the cooling
effect increase. The lines showing a linear trend in Figure 6 have been added to emphasise
the land surface temperature evolution since 2000. The warming might actually be an abrupt
change from one state into another. Figure 6 shows that in the area of the recultivated dump
site “Sophienhöhe”, temperature has decreased by about 3 K between 2000 and 2015, while
the temperature of the newly developed mining area of the “Hambach” open pit mine has
increased by about 3 K.

4.2. Perspectives on future land consumption in the Rhineland Metropolitan area in

2030

Figure 7 shows the results of the modelling for 2030. The quantity of newly urbanised
and occupied areas oscillates between 29,200 ha and 79,000 ha, depending on the scenario
162 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 6. LULCC in Rhenish open pit mining between 2001 and 2015. (A) Indicates the location of “Sophienhöhe”
mining dump and (B) the migration of “Hambach” open pit mine towards southeast. The respective time series of a
(cooling trend) and B (warming trend) of all observations of LST between 2000 and 2015. Red colours indicate warmer
LST during summer; blue colours indicate cold winter LST.
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(Figure 8). This would represent a daily consumption of 5 ha, 10 ha and 15 ha, respectively.
The “business as usual” scenario would already exceed the 30 ha benchmark. In the sce­
nario of “sustainable development”, the land consumption in the Rhineland Metropolitan
area would reduce by 3 ha per day. In the opposite scenario “desire to live in a green
area”, land consumption would almost double (Figure 8). All areas that are consumed in
scenario A (red) are consumed in the other scenarios, too. All areas that are consumed in
scenario B (yellow) would be added to those of scenario A (red + yellow). In scenario C,
most areas would be consumed (red + yellow + blue). Note that cellular automata only issue
an outlook on what could happen and not necessarily what will. The outcome visualises a
basic trend, which occurs in all three scenarios: the settlement area increase firstly leads to a
densification of present settlements. Looking at the distance that lies between newly devel­
oped settlement areas and present ones, this statement is underlined. In addition to that,
the development of new urban areas is taking place in the suburban and exurban space,
which leads to disperse structures. The next step could be to link the land consumption
modelling to a prediction of the development of LST. This could emphasise the importance
of a sustainable management of land resources and add to the debate on climate change.
Densification and infill development are to be preferred over expansion and the develop­
ment of new building areas, since forests and agricultural areas can be preserved that way.
However, increasing densification also holds challenges, especially concerning logistics
and urban climate.

Figure 7. Modelling of land consumption in the Rhineland Metropolitan area in 2030 according to the scenarios
“sustainable development” (A), “business as usual” (B) and “desire to live in a green area” (C) (figure modified after
[25]).
164 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 8. Urban development in the Rhineland Metropolitan area between 1975 and 2030 from an analysis of the region’s
satellite images (1975–2015) and from modelling (2030) according to the scenarios “sustainable development” (A),
“business as usual” (B) and “desire to live in a green area” (C).

5. Conclusion and outlook: Land consumption and climate

adaptation: A glance beyond the metropolitan area

Due to current climate change, the topic of land consumption and change of landscape struc­
ture particularly concerns the densely populated areas and requires measures to increase
their resilience. The classified satellite data (Figure 4) illustrate how settlement structure,
building density and green structure of the Rhineland Metropolitan area have changed over
the past decades. This can be seen when looking at the settlement development along the
Rhine, in particular between Dusseldorf and Cologne, where open spaces are constantly
receding. Looking at the individual neighbourhoods and roads, more links between land use
and microclimate become clear—ventilation, heat development and percolation ability, for
example. Areas with a high degree of imperviousness are at a higher risk to develop urban
heat island effects than green spaces [25]. This is primarily caused by the heat storage of
asphalted surfaces, the missing cooling effect of vegetation, limited air exhaustion due to
dense construction and, of course, anthropogenic emissions. On some days, it might be nice
when it is a little warmer and calmer in the street canyon than in the open field, but the devel­
opment of such heat islands causes many problems in summer, be it for health, water budget
or vegetation growing conditions [1, 2].
The link between the land cover maps and LST trends increases the validity of the results
and establishes new courses of action. That way, it is possible to detect areas that have the
same degree of imperviousness but still differ with regard to their respective microclimate.
The next step would be to take a closer look at the current situation and derive solutions.
The orientation, the height, or the design of the different building structures might all imply
reasons for differences in the respective LULCC and LST results.
 Quantification and Prediction of Land Consumption and Its Climate Effects in the Rhineland… 165
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In order to bring those aspects in accordance with requirements for future development and
to make upcoming plans as climate friendly as possible, many cities already run map services
showing urban climate, which not only show the status quo but also predictions. Although
these maps are a valuable basis for planning, they are not strictly necessary to take initial steps
towards resilience. Many measures can be taken without detailed climate prognoses. Besides
politics and administration, local parties like homeowners and housing associations have to
contribute, too.

To fulfil the potential at hand and to inspire willingness to act, it is useful to raise awareness of
climate change and the associated need for adaption. To do that, there are no measurements
needed; observations can be sufficient. Satellite images—supplemented by climate data—can
be very helpful in doing so. Other examples, besides the already mentioned heat islands, are
rivers and creeks, which, over the last years, have been subject to floods caused by climate
change. While many things can cause a river to overflow, flooded creeks are much very suit­
able to identify causal climatic relationships and to raise awareness.

The Rhineland Metropolitan area is just one of many examples. The observations made
here can be applied to numerous regions in NRW and Germany. It is a promising strategy
to consider both short- and long-term approaches as well as local and regional approaches.
The development of small-scale solutions on how to handle climate change can help to raise
awareness and build a basis for political action. This is first and foremost the responsibil­
ity of urban development planning, as can be seen in many local climate change adaption
concepts [5]. Politics and administration can make suggestions and requirements for newly
planned construction projects, which are based on the insights gained by remote sensing data.
Especially the urban sprawl over the past decades becomes alarmingly clear when looking at
the classified satellite images of 1975 and 2015 (Figure 4). Even though many municipalities
are required to favour inner development over outer development, land consumption is still
at a high level—especially when considering the consumption per capita.

Urban development planning is not the only determining factor for climate adjustment, though.
Modifications of portfolio properties can also contribute to the task at hand. The use of sustain­
able materials and the greening of roofs and facades of private residences, logistics centres,
company premises, commercial and industrial parks and communal buildings can also move
things forward. Numerous models and pilot projects show the potential and the willingness
of companies and associations to contribute to a climate-friendly remodelling [1, 5]. The topics
selected as examples here reveal how important it is to combine sectoral-based strategies. The
link could be created by regular sustainability reporting on a municipal level. Surveys done
by the statewide Agenda 21 workgroup “LAG 21 NRW” (Landesarbeitsgemeinschaft Agenda
21 NRW) show that only a few municipalities are taking advantage of this opportunity so far
[5]. However, those who do can record short- and long-term success. Communities which are
willing to address these problems find assistance in a special training session offered by the
Education Centre for the Supply and Disposal Economy (Bildungszentrum für die Ver- und
Entsorgungswirtschaft, BEW). The Ministry for Environment, Agriculture, Conservation and
Consumer Protection of the State of NRW supports this approach and awards municipalities
that successfully finish the course with a certificate [5].
166 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Climate adaption is a very complex topic, which is hard to impart. Small-scale possibili­
ties of change like the renaturation of a creek are a well-suited starting point to demon­
strate individual and local courses of action. The inclusion of the public also creates the
opportunity for creative potential, which no city should pass up. Cities in the Rhineland
Metropolitan area have already taken action. In association with the Universities of Bonn
and Bochum, the Bonn Science Shop (Wissenschaftsladen Bonn, WILA) and the cities of
Bonn and Gelsenkirchen are developing practical climate adaptation measures and guide­
lines in the project called “Town and Country in the Flow – Network for the Creation of a
sustainable Climate Landscape (KlimNet)” to include parties at all levels as well as citizens
(www.klimalandschaften-nrw.de).

Acknowledgements

The project KlimNet is funded by the Project Management Acency Jülich (Projektträger Jülich,
PTJ) with means of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety following a decision of the German Bundestag (funding code 03DAS098B) within the
German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie an den
Klimawandel, DAS). The authors would like to cordially thank their colleagues at the Bonn
Science Shop (Wissenschaftsladen Bonn, WILA), namely, Dr. Anke Valentin, for their constant
and productive collaboration on all levels. Javier Muro kindly gave MODIS data processing
support at the Center for Remote Sensing of Land Surfaces (Zentrum für Fernerkundung der
Landoberfläche, ZFL), University of Bonn. Special thanks go to the former members of the
“NRWpro “project team, especially to Dr. Roland Goetzke, Dr. Birte Schöttker and Prof. Dr.
Gunter Menz (†). Their results from more than a decade ago formed the basis of new research
ideas and projects, one of which is currently KlimNet.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Author details

Andreas Rienow1*, Nora Jennifer Schneevoigt1 and Frank Thonfeld2

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

1 Geomatics Research Group, Department of Geography, Ruhr-University Bochum,
Germany
2 Remote Sensing Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Germany
 Quantification and Prediction of Land Consumption and Its Climate Effects in the Rhineland… 167
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79287

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 Chapter 9

Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental

Engineering

Toshiaki Ichinose

Additional information is available at the end of the chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78574

Abstract
The author focuses on urban area and shows case studies on urban energy planning and
urban climate induced by concentrated human activities like energy use based on geo-
graphic information like land use data and numerical climate model linked to geographic
information system (GIS). (1) In finding the candidate places to settle district heat supply
facilities that make effective reuse of heat obtained from sewage, the usage of GIS gives
the reasonable solution in scientific view point. (2) The spatiotemporal data in high
resolution on human activity like energy consumption in urban area enable us to evaluate
the impact of anthropogenic heat to urban climate by a numerical simulation model of the
local climate. (3) The recent precise geographic information of urban vegetation cover
derived from remote sensing (RS) data enables us to evaluate the contribution of urban
green to cool our community with higher accuracy. (4) The author’s approach is available
not only to evaluate the current urban environment but also to evaluate the past one. If a
certain scenario of future’s urban land use and urban activity, this approach will be
available for the future prediction. Thus, these outputs will give some sustainable urban
design in viewpoint of climate change (mitigation and adaptation).

Keywords: urban environment, urban climate, energy system, GIS, sustainability

1. Introduction

Geography can be used to clarify the spatiotemporal distributions of various phenomena like
climate, flora, fauna, human activities on the Earth, as well as their underlying mechanisms. In
contrast, environmental engineering emphasizes the connections among individual elements
such as air, water, soil, and living organisms, and attempts to link research findings to policy-
making and technical development.

© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
170 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 1. Conceptual structure of this chapter.

The author wants to promote environmental engineering studies to achieve urban design that
incorporates environmental factors and fosters the diversity of natural ecosystems, with a
focus on Asian cities, which are experiencing the fastest urbanization rate in the world. The
author will show how urban physical forms can be designed to take advantage of surrounding
natural environments, while also considering specific political and social systems. Another aim
is to contribute to global urban design by helping to shift the paradigm of urban planning
through innovations that will make low-carbon cities a reality.
Urban areas receive energy, water, products, and raw materials from the outside and emit other
products, wastes, sewage, exhaust gases, and waste heat. These waste products are often emitted
directly into the environment. This process is called “urban metabolism” in reference to its
similarity to the metabolism of a living organism [1, 2]. Mitigating the environmental burden of
urban activities requires optimizing the structure of urban metabolism. For example, incineration
and heat pumps make it possible to recover heat from wastes and sewage, and the effective use
of such untapped energy sources will not only reduce the environmental burden by cycling the
energy flow within urban areas, but will also more effectively use energy and resources.
In this chapter, the author focuses on urban area and shows case studies on urban energy
planning and urban climate induced by concentrated human activities like energy use based
on geographic information like land use data and numerical climate model linked to GIS
(Figure 1). These outputs will give some sustainable urban design in viewpoint of climate
change (mitigation and adaptation).

2. Urban energy planning

Waste incineration plants supply far more concentrated heat than can sewage plants that
produce energy, but incineration plants tend to be isolated so they can naturally serve only
limited areas. With sewage, heat pumps make it possible to recover heat by taking advantage
of the temperature difference between air and sewage. Tokyo (meaning the 23 special wards of
the city proper) is covered by a sewerage network [3] (Figure 2); although the sewage in this
network provides heat distributed widely in a low quality, heat recovery and supply are
expected to be possible in broad areas. For such heat utilization to work, there must be
quantitative congruence between heat demand and the use of waste heat in heat supply
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 171
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Figure 2. Extracted sewerage lines and sewerage treatment districts in the 23 special wards of Tokyo Metropolis [4]. (N-S:
32 km, E-W: 33 km).

operations. It would seem to be useful to search for such areas, and using a GIS may facilitate
this process.
Connolly et al. [5] and Manfren et al. [6] reviewed computer tools that can be used to analyze
the integration of renewable energy, including the currently untapped (and diffuse) sources of
city energy. Some of the tools are GIS-based and applicable at the local community scale [7–10],
but their target is mainly electricity (solar, wind, and biomass burning). Gils et al. [11] intro-
duced a methodology for a GIS-based analysis of district heating potential. They assessed the
energy demand for space heating and hot water in residential and commercial sectors in U.S.
cities. The author’s interest is the spatial conformity between energy demand and supply
when referring to community-scale urban structure. This point is the reason why the author
think GIS analysis is applicable for urban energy planning.
Accordingly, in relation to established plans of district heat supply facilities that make effective
reuse of heat obtained from sewage, the author developed the GIS software to perform
analyses of the spatial congruence between heat demand and the use of waste heat in heat
supply operations [4]. The temporal and spatial distribution structure of energy consumption
[12] was used as the basic data for the GIS, as was the distribution information for land-use
types, height of buildings, and other relevant items used in the approximations.
The sewer system simulation model (SSSM) uses raster data on land-use types and building
height (number of floors), and polygon data of sewage collection areas defined by sewerage
172 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

lines, as inputs for performing calculations and mapping [4]. Main data entered into the model
included floor space by type of building use for each 250  250 m grid cell [13], energy
consumption per unit floor space according to industry type [12], and heat demand data
according to type of building used [12, 14]. This model can calculate heat demand in each grid
cell (Figure 3), calculate the sewage flow rate at sewerage line nodes (Figure 2), and calculate
the amount of recoverable sewage heat at the nodes and surrounding grid cells (Figure 4).

Figure 3. Distribution of heat demand density in Tokyo (daytime, winter, grid size: 250 m) [4].

Figure 4. A schematic diagram of theoretical calculation results for recoverable heat at the points along a sewerage line [4].
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 173
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In the areas with a large amount of usable heat, there are long sewerage lines and many
possible locations of heat recovery in general. Owing to the many possible locations of recov-
ery, each with large heat demand in areas such as business districts, the amount of usable heat
per heat pump is large. There were also a few cases where the flow rate was a limiting
condition. When sewerage lines run through residential areas in main, the heat demand along
the sewerage lines is small [4]. In finding the candidate places to settle district heat supply
facilities that make effective reuse of heat obtained from sewage, the usage of GIS gives the
reasonable solution in scientific view point.

3. Assessment of urban climate

3.1. Urban energy use and its impact

Expansion of urban areas and increase in urban activity have several impacts on urban
environments. These impacts are represented by air pollution, water pollution, thermal pollu-
tion, caused by anthropogenic heat emission, and so on. Anthropogenic heat affects local
climate in urban areas producing phenomena such as heat islands [12]. This process has been
explored in a numerical simulation [12, 15]. It was reported that urbanization has both positive
and negative impacts on thermal environment, as an increase in urban energy use and a
decrease in incoming solar radiation [16]. On the other hand, evaluation of the impact of urban
activity through land use change and anthropogenic heat on the urban thermal environment
has been necessary in view of urban planning. Quantitative analysis of how human activities
and urban structures should be changed to reduce heat island phenomena requires detailed
data on anthropogenic heat sources, one of the surface boundary conditions, for use in numer-
ical simulations of such impacts. Such analysis needs evaluation of the influence of spatial and
temporal structures of anthropogenic heat on urban thermal environment. Field surveys of
energy consumption over wide areas are difficult to carry out. The data for energy consump-
tion as a source of anthropogenic heat must be in the form of grid cell data to be referenced
geographically. Some studies which mapped the anthropogenic heat in Tokyo have been
published [12, 15]. A time-series analysis of the distribution of urban energy consumption is
necessary to evaluate its impact on the thermal environment. The author attempted a detailed
analysis of the temporal variability of the distribution of energy consumption in the 23 special
wards of the Tokyo Metropolis (Tokyo) [12]. He used a digital geographic land use data set
containing the number of floors of building at each grid point to tabulate energy consumption
(Figure 5) on an areal basis. The numerical simulation of urban climate was consequently
performed to determine the effect of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in Tokyo. Annual
and diurnal variability of energy consumption (Figure 6) is necessary for computer mapping
of urban anthropogenic heat.

The author drew detailed maps of anthropogenic heat in Tokyo with data from energy statis-
tics and a detailed digital geographic land use data set including the number of floors of
building at each grid point (Figure 7) [12]. Computer graphics animation of the diurnal and
annual variability in anthropogenic heat of Tokyo was also prepared with the same data
174 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

sources. These outputs characterize scenarios of anthropogenic heat emission and can be
applied to a numerical simulation model of the urban climate [12]. The anthropogenic heat
flux in central Tokyo exceeded 400 W m2 in daytime, and the maximum value was
1590 W m2 in winter. The hot water supply in offices and hotels contributed 51% of this
1590 W m2. The anthropogenic heat flux from the household sector in the suburbs reached

Figure 5. Areal energy consumption for each category on business or land use in Tokyo in 1989 [12]. It excludes industry,
motor vehicle and trains. “Depart. S.” means department store. “Apart. H.” means apartment house.

Figure 6. Diurnal variability of demand for space cooling in summer, space heating in winter and hot water supply in
winter. Additionally diurnal variability of areal energy consumption in the manufacturing and transportation sectors is
also shown [12].
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 175
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about 30 W m2 at night. Numerical simulations of urban climate in Tokyo were performed by
referring to these maps. A heat island appeared evident in winter because of weakness of the
sea breeze from Tokyo Bay. At 8 p.m., several peaks of high-temperature appeared, around the
areas with the largest anthropogenic heat fluxes (Figure 8). In winter, the shortwave radiation
was weak, and the influence of anthropogenic heat was relatively large.

Figure 7. Distribution of anthropogenic heat in Tokyo at 2 p.m. (upper) and 9 p.m. (lower) in winter [12].
176 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 8. Horizontal distribution of air temperatures ( C) and wind system at 7.5 m above the ground in winter midnight
[12]. Symbols as follows: n: Nakano, t: Setagaya, j: Shinjuku, i: Ikebukuro, k: Kamata, m: Marunouchi, o: Otemachi, a: Adachi.

The spatiotemporal data in high resolution on human activity like energy consumption in
urban area enable us to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic heat to urban climate by a
numerical simulation model of the local climate.

3.2. Urban green and its contribution

The following progress of RS and GIS technology brought a more advanced application of the
author’s approach. Hirano et al. [17] simulated local climate with surface boundary conditions
based on satellite RS data. Most previous mesoscale meteorological modelling studies use
land-use data instead as the surface boundary conditions. However, small patches of vegeta-
tion cover, such as garden trees and roadside trees, are excluded from the land-use data.
Therefore, they made a fractional vegetation cover (FVC) data set with these small patches of
vegetation cover from RS data (Figure 9), and then simulated the urban heat island in Tokyo
with FVC data as new surface boundary conditions. The air temperature with the new bound-
ary condition is up to 1.5 C lower than that with the old one (Figure 10). Furthermore, the new
boundary condition led to predicted air temperatures closer to the measured temperatures
than those with the old one. Therefore, it is important for urban climate simulations to include
small vegetation cover.
The recent precise geographic information of urban vegetation cover derived from RS data
enables us to evaluate the contribution of urban green to cool our community with higher
accuracy.
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 177
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Figure 9. Estimated FVC (Fractional Vegetation Cover) around Tokyo [17]. The dashed-square indicates the target area of
Figure 10.

Figure 10. Temperature difference in  C between the case applying FVC data and the case not applying at 15:00 LST at
4.5 m above ground level [17]. Negative values show cooler temperatures under Case RS.
178 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

4. Estimation of past urban climate

About 120 years have passed since meteorological observations began in Asia; since then,
researchers have used various methods to reconstruct the climate of earlier times. One such
method has been to use notations about weather in ancient journals and documents. Since the
early modern times, the Japanese have left many usable records, and, although these are mostly
qualitative accounts, researchers have learned how hot in summer, or how cold in winter, it was
in the past. Although the information collected from these documents contains many spatial and
temporal gaps, recent advances in computerized meteorological modelling have made it possible
to compute local distributions of climatologic parameters; for example, the distribution of surface
air temperature is determinable if the surface boundary conditions, like the land-use distribu-
tions, are known [12, 15]. The author used numerical simulations with a mesoscale climate
model referenced to digital land-use data (2 km grid) covering all of Japan to attempt to isolate
the influence on surface air temperature of regional warming related to land-use change during a
recent 135-year period [18]. During this period, areas of regional warming related to land use
changes expanded around Osaka and Tokyo. However, the validation of the results of this study
was difficult because the amount of available data on long-term climate fluctuations was limited.
To validate the results of modelling such as the author’s [18], observed climatologic data (e.g., air
temperature) are needed to provide initial values for the modelling. The weather stations’ network
and other observation facilities that have been established throughout Japan since 1876 provide
long-term temperature fluctuations to the present. Data for Tokyo have often been used to
associate changes in local climate in conjunction with urbanization [19]. Many instances of global
warming [20] and changes of air temperature due to the regional climate change have been
identified over broader areas and longer periods than those caused by local land-use changes
[21]; comparing these to modeled temporal changes in air temperatures may elucidate the contri-
bution of land-use change to climate change in Japan. Comparisons like this will also help to
overcome the problem of spatial and temporal discontinuity in historical climatologic information.
Another reason such research is important in Japan is that urbanization in large Japanese cities
has increased local air temperatures by about 1 C during the twentieth century [22]. Until now
researchers have relied on statistical methods to distinguish between the influence on air tem-
perature of localized warming caused by urbanization, and the influence of global warming and
other broader scale changes of air temperature [23]. Of course, such methods cannot be applied
to time periods or regions without any observed data. Much pioneering research has eliminated
the influence of urbanization as noise when estimating temperature changes over large areas
[24]. The use of a mesoscale model with past land-use distributions as surface boundary condi-
tions to simulate past climatologic parameters (e.g., air temperature distributions) might help to
distinguish the influence of localized warming due to urbanization from that of global warming
and regional-scale (e.g., Far East Region, Eastern Asia, etc.) fluctuations of air temperature for
time periods and regions without enough observed data [18]. Certainly, the urban-scale and
mesoscale meteorological model have been widely used in other studies, such as Kusaka et al.
[25] and Doan et al. [26], which created the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) to
examine the phenomena of urban climate in different scales.
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 179
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Figure 11. Urbanization around seven megacities in Asia (RIHN Research Project C-5 “Human Impacts on Urban
Subsurface Environments”) [28].
180 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Case studies of the area around the upper reaches of the Rhine River as it was in 1710
[27] and of the Edo area (Tokyo was called “Edo” until the middle of the nineteenth
century) during the first half of the nineteenth century [18] are examples of attempts to
quantify the influence of urbanization-induced changes in the surface heat budget on
surface air temperatures, as opposed to research from a historical climatology perspec-
tive. These researchers derived land-use distributions for the periods they studied from
historical maps and other historical sources. Because the periods they studied predate
the beginning of meteorological records, comparisons with observed meteorological data
are impossible.
The author is focusing on both the past ground surface temperatures (Tsfc) of 100 years ago and
the current one, in order to clarify the relationship between the urban development and
subsurface warming in seven Asian megacities based on the numerical simulation of local
climate, considering the land-use data in these megacities for three discrete years of the
twentieth century [28], because subsurface temperatures are affected by surface warming (heat
of the ground level is conducted downwardly). The author used the Colorado State University
Mesoscale Model (CSU-MM) [29, 12, 18] and digital land-use data (2 km grid) from seven
Asian megacities (Seoul, Tokyo, Osaka, Taipei, Bangkok, Manila, and Jakarta) to simulate Tsfc
for three discrete years of the twentieth century (Figure 11).

Based on the vertical profile of subsurface temperature in boreholes, which is regarded to

record the past Tsfc, Taniguchi et al. [30] identified surface warming during the twentieth

Figure 12. Land-cover/use around Bangkok in 1910 with its legend [28]. Stars show “City Center” and “Northern
Suburb”. Inside of solid rectangle line shows the areas displaying computed results in Figure 13.
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 181
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century of 2.8 C in Tokyo and 1.8 C in Bangkok. The seven land-use data sets (Figure 11)
revealed the major characteristics of land-use change during the twentieth century expansion
of urbanized areas in the seven megacities considered here. Such large-scale surface changes
would be expected to bring about localized climatic changes in response to the resultant
changes to the surface heat budget. In the modelling on a calm and clear day of the hottest
season, the central Bangkok showed Tsfc to be increasing by about 1.1 K 100 y1 during the
twentieth century [28] (Figures 12 and 13).

There is almost no difference between the graphs of diurnal change of Tsfc between 1960
and 2000 in the city center of Bangkok (Figure 14), whereas in the northern suburbs of
Bangkok, where land use between 1960 and 2000 has changed from rice paddy to urban,
there has been a rapid increase of Tsfc. In particular, Tsfc in the northern suburbs of Bangkok
in 2000 was higher than in 1960, by about 15 K in the daytime and by about 5 K at dawn.
Thus, it appears that subsurface temperature profiles differ according to the start time of
urbanization periods.
Thus, the author’s approach is available not only to evaluate the current urban environment
but also to the past one. If a certain scenario of future’s urban land use and urban activity, this
approach will be available for the future prediction.

Figure 13. Computed Tsfc (K) around Bangkok in the hottest season (calm and clear day at the end of March) [28]. Left:
3 p.m. in 1910, right: 3 p.m. in 2000.
182 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 14. Diurnal variability of computed Tsfc in the hottest season (calm and clear day) in two stages [28]. Difference of
computed warming of Tsfc in the same term (Bangkok).

5. Conclusion

In this chapter, the author focuses on urban area and shows case studies on urban energy
planning and urban climate induced by concentrated human activities like energy use based
on geographic information like land use data and numerical climate model linked to GIS. The
author shows the following four outcomes: (1) In finding the candidate places to settle district
heat supply facilities that make effective reuse of heat obtained from sewage, the usage of GIS
gives the reasonable solution in scientific view point, (2) The spatiotemporal data in high
resolution on human activity like energy consumption in urban area enable us to evaluate the
 Fusion Study of Geography and Environmental Engineering 183
http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.78574

impact of anthropogenic heat to urban climate by a numerical simulation model of the local
climate, (3) The recent precise geographic information of urban vegetation cover derived from
RS data enables us to evaluate the contribution of urban green to cool our community with
higher accuracy, (4) The author’s approach is available not only to evaluate the current urban
environment but also to the past one. If a certain scenario of future’s urban land use and urban
activity, this approach will be available for the future prediction. Thus, these outputs will give
some sustainable urban design in viewpoint of climate change (mitigation and adaptation).

Acknowledgements

The author sincerely thanks to Mr. Kai Liu, Research Assistant of National Institute for Envi-
ronmental Studies for his great contribution to the editorial process of this manuscript. The
author states that some contexts and figures of this manuscript come from his previous
publications like [4, 12, 17, 28] and are permitted to use.

Conflict of interest

The author declares there is no conflict of interest on this manuscript.

Author details

Toshiaki Ichinose

Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

National Institute for Environmental Studies/Nagoya University, Tsukuba/Nagoya, Japan

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 Chapter 10

Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An

Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network Modelling
Perspective

Andreas Koch

Additional
Additional information is available
information is available at
at the
the end
end of
of the
the chapter
chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.77322

Abstract

Models in general and geosimulation in particular are epistemologically characterized

by two principles: first, they produce reality through their existence and communica­
tion rather than simply representing it. Second, they reduce complexity in the process
of mapping complexity. Since almost any current phenomenon is understood as com­
plex without specifying how complex it is and in which sense, geosimulation models are
important tools in solving this problem of specifying and representing complexity. This
capability rests, among other things, upon its multilevel approach (bottom-up and top-
down) and its ability to translate terms into numbers and thus into distinct singularities.
A demonstration of such an understanding of models will be given by presenting a socio­
spatial simulation approach in the domain of network analysis and social capital opera­
tionalization. Two Austrian regions serve as case studies using empirical and simulated
data. The demonstration includes the endeavor to intertwine a place-based geography
with a network­based geography.

Keywords: generative power of models, translating social capital into quantities,

network mechanisms, semi-empirical model, network-based and place-based
geography

1. Introduction

The mutual referencing of statements is a presupposition to comprehend the stated facts in a

communication situation. Be it theories or methods, descriptions or explanations, texts or maps—
relationships always create, explicitly or implicitly, these nexuses with which particularities are

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
188 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

being contextualized. Contextualization generates meaning. However, neither the creation of

relationships nor the creation of meaning is grounded in objective and independent criteria,
neither in science nor in everyday life. They are, on the other hand, not completely arbitrary, but
depend on particular social-cultural, temporal (historical) and spatial (geographical) contexts.
The referential contexts emphasize in addition how, why, and that complementarities are
fundamental for comprehensive reasoning. Complementarities can be dialectic; the decisive
point is that they simultaneously express a mutually excluding and complementing relation­
ship, as is the case of the dualism between wave and particle or of impulse and location in
physics. One characteristic of complementarity is that the so far unconnected (or differently
connected) components do already exist. Every social construction of space, for instance,
presupposes spatial rules, patterns, and conventions which are independent properties com­
pared with the social rules, patterns, and conventions being applied when taking possession
of social space. Among others, spatial rules ground in geometry, topology, or algorithmic
computation. This is equally true for every statistical analysis. The result of a model run or a
statistical analysis presumes the selected technique which itself is based on concrete proce­
dural rules (e.g., that interactions among agents and between agents and their environment
are taken into consideration). The process of computing a number is usually not reflected in
the result, except it is made explicit. In this respect, a mathematical emergence of reality does
not differ from a textual or (carto-) graphical emergence of reality and in all cases we refer to
a priori objectives, reflections, and so on. What makes a difference is the nature of translation.

For modelling geographical phenomena from a social scientific perspective, an understand­

ing of relations and complementarities is crucial because both spatial and social facts do rely
heavily on their inner-temporal dynamics and develop in time differently [1]. Social­spatial
network processes and mechanisms may obey common rules of homophily or of addressing
roles and positions. The quality of the processes and mechanisms, however, together with its
concrete manifestations of allocations of social, cultural, economic, and spatial capital is influ­
enced by the idiosyncratic peculiarity of their local, temporal, and community compositions.

With these introductory remarks, we aim to highlight the underlying principles in the creation
of meaning and intentionality derived from abstract information [2] and dedicated to be used
in scientific, political and everyday-life communications. The notion of communication is
used here as a means of providing us with the capability to deal with our perceived and inter­
preted environment in a meaningful way. This aim implies a closer look into the functions and
purposes of models and quantifications, and is tied to the challenges that arise due to the ref­
erencing of complementarities, of numbers and words, of quantifications and qualifications.

2. The nature of models and quantifications and their impacts

2.1. The peculiarity of quantities and quantifications

In contrast to the common understanding of quantities which are assumed to devaluate the
individual as an abstract number and negate its qualities, it is Lewin ([3], p. 150) who appreciates
 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 189
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the peculiarity of quantification: “It is the increased desire, and also the increased ability, to
comprehend concrete particular cases, and to comprehend them fully, which, together with the
idea of the homogeneity of the physical world and that of the continuity of the properties of its
objects, constituted the main impulse to the increasing quantification of physics.” Numbers,
quantifications and their emergence through quantitative methods are one possibility for
raising a kind of uniqueness to facts, phenomena, and events which cannot be realized by
the other approaches. “There is nothing more abstract and singular than numbers. Beyond
numbers no further abstraction is thinkable, because abstracting from numbers would mean
to disregard singularity. This in turn would mean to give up the Self, because the Self is only
possible in contradiction to ‘Another’” ([4], p. 4; translation A.K). It is worth noting that con­
temporary sociological and philosophical approaches to modern societies increasingly take
the concept of singularity into account. [5–6]. Weiss [4] also points out that quantity (the single
part) and quality (the whole) conflate; they can be distinguished analytically, but need to be
mutually related in order to understand both sides of the coin—and the coin.

The complementarity of quantity and quality, of quantification and qualification, is realized

through translation, and this procedure must be recalled when statements and numbers as
well as their manifold representations are captured and utilized. Detractors of quantifica­
tion tend to create an asymmetry between the two worlds. They argue that if a qualitative
phenomenon is being tied to a number it will lose its eigenvalue—the only thing that counts
henceforth is its numerical value. The processes and mechanisms of its creation, their cultural,
geographical or temporal differences maintain obscured [7]. Though this problem definitely
exists, it is not a problem of the quantification itself but a problem of exposing the cultural,
political, social and scientific circumstances of its creation. Therefore, the use of numbers and
words incorporates presuppositions about what is perceived as relevant and valuable.

2.2. Challenges of transformability of methods, numbers, and models

Measurements, quantifications and models result in one or many but always concrete single
cases, as has been stated above. What they bear must be contextualized. From an epistemologi­
cal perspective, it is the well-known threefold “context of discovery,” “context of justification,”
and “context of utilization.” Contextualization, in addition, must refer to other measurements
and models in order to verify and validate model results, but also to utilize them comparatively
in connection with other approaches [8]. What follows is not a competition between outcomes
and paradigmatic settings but an abductive approaching to the explicit problem(s) at hand.

This may sound trivial. Indeed, the claim for transformability of methodological approaches, of
modelling aims and types among and between modelling paradigms, scientific and epistemo­
logical explanations has been uttered many times over the past six or so decades. One such utter­
ance, apart from that of Thomas Kuhn [9], was made by Ludwik Fleck, a Polish physician who
refused to accept an “absolute truth” as an epistemological counterpart of scientific exploration.
He insisted on three social factors which inherently determine scientific reasoning ([1], p. xxii):

1. The “weigh of education”: knowledge foremost consists of learnt items, being, however,
then subtly transformed by learning and communication.
190 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

2. The “burden of tradition”: new recognition is primarily coined by already existing

recognition.
3. The “effect of the recognition sequence”: what has been once conceptualized theoretically
and/or methodologically restricts the opportunities of new concepts.

Incorporating these social factors into the evaluation of research results may help to relax the
researcher from unobtainable truths and to focus more strictly on the processes and purposes
of model production.

2.3. Utilization of knowledge, numbers and models

Taking the challenges of contextualization, translation and transformation explicitly into

account would also mean having to deal with knowledge and models in a different way. The
qualitative experience with social phenomena and problems feeds mainly on very subjective
and local living conditions; it is, however, simultaneously an amalgamation of aggregated
knowledge as “socialized subjectivity” [10]. This kind of knowledge which refers to local
and subjective-social living conditions can be termed “local knowledge.” Local knowledge,
though derived from a different epistemology and perspective (ethnography and natives in
developing countries) [11], can be transferred to contemporary (post)modern, globalized and
localized living conditions as well. Local knowledge of people having, for example, a differ­
ent social or economic status, living in impoverished or wealthy regions is, apart from scal­
ing, important for social-spatial network analysis because it incorporates another mode of
observation and perception. While knowledge about socioeconomic inequality or disparate
living conditions in scientific and political contexts is mostly a perspective of people who are
not affected by these disparities (a second order observation), local knowledge of socially
discriminated and excluded people offers a first order observation.

In addition to mutual relationships between different modes of recognition, ordering, and

understanding, it is important to account for the relationships within the quantitative meth­
odology. It can be confirmed that “calculating is existing equality of opportunity” ([12], p. 43)
because societal problems such as discrimination and inequality can be—and must be—made
comparable through exact differentiation and objectivation which can then be used for opin­
ion­forming in the political arena. As long as statistical analyses are considered as an instru­
ment among others, one would be able to agree with the above quote. If not, the “equality of
opportunity” turns out to be misused as ideology, representing an interest- and power-driven
inequality of opportunity, since there is no longer explicit advice for a reduction of complexity.

A reduction of complexity is another and inevitable step in perceiving and grasping our
world. It is, however, simultaneously necessary to deal with this reduction of complexity in
an explicit and deliberate way. Explicit means to not only publish the results of an analysis
but also the process of its realization. Deliberate means taking a critical attitude with regard
to the chosen method(s) (see, among others, [13] for a detailed description of the creation of
the “risk of poverty threshold” and its implications, and [14] with delineation of measuring
poverty in London in the nineteenth and twentieth century).
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Another problem of the internal confirmatory referencing of quantitative methods is the dan­
ger of not only making the measured values absolute but also the models and techniques
applied. This problem can be phrased as “to explain the real through the impossible.”
Economics can serve as an example here: “Economics creates mathematical models which
could never be built in reality but are used nevertheless to compute and reduce complex
economic processes to a few numbers. Here too, they try to describe the real through the
impossible. […] Neoclassical economics assumes a kind of market harmony. If markets are
left to their own resources then everything develops well. Dummy arguments are used to
confirm this opinion by misusing mathematics in order to circulate ideology” ([15], p. 112f,
translation A.K). The critical point is not that quantitative methods deal with artificial experi­
mental settings or models, but that they immediately equate models with reality. Instead,
models— through their construction and focus—create a reality through their use in science
and everyday life, which will be explained in more detail in the next section. In addition, the
methodological and technological progress must also be thought of explicitly.

2.4. The purpose and meaning of models

For an appropriate appreciation of quantification and modelling, a different kind of conclud­

ing translation between method and epistemology seems to be necessary. Statistics often
assumes an absence of ideologies and normative values which is not true when considering
the modes of acquiring, producing, and publishing data and results, respectively. The basic
instruments with which we observe, describe, explain, and interpret the world are models—
there is no immediate access to our spatial and social environment.
This must be briefly explained. I agree with Schurz ([16], p. 56) who argues for a hypothetical-
constructivist realism approach. According to this realism, our perception and imagination of
reality is not a priori given, but constructed and conditioned through active cognition (which
is referred to as “epistemic” constructivism). Contrary to an ontological constructivism which
conclusively claims that reality too is not a priori given, the hypothetical-constructivist realism
does not link perception and reality so tightly. Instead, it assumes a structural correspondence
which transforms information between perception and reality, which is neither complete nor
unambiguous. Taking such a corresponding linkage into consideration, it leads to an under­
standing of models that does not claim a straightforward coincidence of models with the real­
ity, the nature, or the world. Models are not simply simplified representations of reality; they
are images (imaginations) which we make from our environment. We constantly construct
and reconstruct our environmental entry by using many and different instruments and tools
proactively and interactively. These instruments and tools in turn influence our ways of (re-)
construction. This making of is not always an act of creation, we also (and maybe mainly) use
images (imaginations) made by others, be it maps, news articles, social network blogs, novels,
theater plays, and the like. The application of images differs with respect to experience, social
roles and positions, and many more contexts.
If this assumption of how reality can be accessed is true, then the role and meaning of models
changes significantly. Models, then, are created, developed, and applied to generate reality, not
to represent it (although representation remains one, but only one important characteristic).
192 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

In so doing, they untie from an assumed objective, true or total reality which has to be imitated
by applying certain sets of rules. They establish a kind of independence. Models, moreover,
reduce complexity in order to make the subject matter concrete. Hence, it is not the unimagi­
nable, opaque complexity addressed theoretically to “reality” which is under investigation
in models and computationally translated to quantities. Complexity of reality is a metaphor
which will act as a counterpart to models, theories and quantifications. To compare it with
system theory, we can conceive of characteristics of systems because they emerge as distinct
objects structurally and functionally. Initially, we are not able to talk about a system’s environ­
ment—it is just the unassigned other side of the system.
If the function of a model is not to represent or imitate the complexity of an unknown real­
ity, then a model inhabits inherently its own justification by explicitly expressing its pur­
pose, assumptions, and ways of reducing complexity. This is quite similar to map-making by
applying rules of generalization or to statistical analysis by deliberately selecting variables
and techniques in order to achieve a certain result.
The aim of this line of thought is to avoid absolute external reality as a reference in model­
ling, but instead putting the inherent purposes, assumptions, framing conditions, parameter
settings, and so on in the foreground. In so doing, it is a realization of a modelling epistemol­
ogy that has been claimed by several researchers, among others Epstein [17], by arguing for
a “generative social science” which accounts for letting the phenomenon of interest grow in a
simulation model of interacting agents, or Küppers et al. [18] who equate simulation models
epistemologically with a “pragmatic construction of reality,” whereby reality emerges inside
the models (further hints are given in [19]).
It would therefore be more appropriate to refer to “originals” instead of “reality” which are
being generated and represented by models. Originals refer to other originals and in doing so
there is no need to refer to an absolute truth/reality. This is in line with Stachowiak’s [20] General
Model Theory, whereby models are defined through three characteristics: (1) a model is always
a representation of a natural or artificial original, and the original can itself be an original; (2) a
model does not encompass all attributes of an original, but only those which seem to be relevant
for the model purpose; (3) a model does not conflate with the original inherently, but depends
on the purpose, thus on the questions ‘whereto,’ ‘for what and whom,’ ‘when,’ and ‘where.’

2.5. The risk of instrumentalizing models

Without relationships and associations, models and numbers tend to be used as ideology or sheer
instruments. They become stylized facts, and the images (imaginations) they produce induce a
kind of a factual inevitability. A social capital value derived from network analysis, a poverty
threshold, or a correlation between voter turnout and social status is equated with reality that not
even one of the parameters would represent as a single case accidentally. A related problem is
given with the use of the notion of “optimization”—model optimization is often equalized with
empirical optimization, misappropriating the purpose(s) and premise(s) of the model.
Complementary to the ideologization of models, we have to take the ideologization through
models into account. Members of a social community or milieu potentially identify with sci­
entific and political model results or analyses, be it confirmatory or deprecatory or something
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in between. Mechanisms of self- and external exclusion are one of the most negative and
sustainable effects of stigmatized identification.

3. Social capital as a reference in social-spatial network modelling

The facts and problems that have been addressed so far, in order to adequately deal with
models in general and geosimulation models in particular, will now be put into the context
of social-spatial network modelling. The contextualization of information and the mutual
transformation of complementary reference units in social network analyses are, inter alia,
challenged by the difficulty of translating terms into numbers—in other words, of quantify­
ing notions of social capital, solidarity or trust. Before introducing a geosimulation network
modelling approach that attempts to explicitly struggle with this difficulty methodologically
we begin with a brief delineation of the theoretical problem.

“Social interactions in collective human relations are commonly understood as a fundamental

condition for human beings to live a satisfactory life. Establishing a personal identity and auton­
omy on the one hand, and trust, solidarity and commitment on the other hand require social-
normative rules which function as a glue that helps agents to connect to one another. While the
nature of social interaction is seen as an unquestioned fact its valuation in operational terms is
much harder to achieve. One apparently and generally accepted approach to operationalize the
value of social interactions is given by the theory of social capital. A huge body of theoretical
reflections as well as empirical studies [21, 22] consider transferring the concept of economic
capital into the social realm as a suitable methodology for coping with social relations” [23].
“The size and composition of social networks rely to a large part on the characteristics of
the actors involved, i.e. their capabilities, needs and aspirations to collaborate with others.
They also depend on the reasons for cooperation, the kinds of problems, and the (in)tangi­
ble infrastructure necessary to communicate via different channels. An important additional
issue, however, comes with the nature of network mechanisms themselves – the process of
how relations between actors emerge structurally and which determinants are thought to be
relevant” [23]. There are several different approaches which relate the analysis of network
mechanisms to social facts, one of which is dedicated to social capital.
Bourdieu ([24], p. 248) defines social capital as “the aggregate of the actual or potential resources
which are linked to possession of a durable network of more or less institutionalized relation­
ships of mutual acquaintance and recognition.” This definition is in favor of an actor-centered
and utilitarian perspective that not only presupposes an affiliation to one or many social net­
works as a constituent characteristic, but also assumes knowledge about the structure and
function(s) of these. Networks vary significantly in size and complexity; they can be concrete
and manageable as, for instance, families and cliques as well as abstract and opaque, as is the
case for associations, organizations, labor markets, or electoral rolls. [25]

Furthermore, it is remarkable that the unit of value, the currency, is implicitly given by solidar­
ity, reciprocity, and trust, expressed explicitly as network connections, however. “The volume
of the social capital possessed by a given agent thus depends on the size of the network of
194 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

connections he can effectively mobilize and on the volume of the capital (economic, cultural
or symbolic) possessed in his own right by each of those to whom he is connected” [25]. This
quantitative relation—the more connections one has the higher his/her social capital is—sounds
odd because it makes no qualitative difference in terms of network structure (density of rela­
tions) or the nature and value of relations (positions and roles of agents, weights of directions).
“Resources” within the social capital context are understood as the availability of network rela­
tionships, which are, however, not specified—neither quantitatively nor qualitatively. A func­
tional approach to social capital differs from an actor-centered one and accounts more suitably
for assigning value to social relation: “Social capital is defined by its function. It is not a single
entity, but a variety of different entities having two characteristics in common: They all consist
of some aspect of a social structure, and they facilitate certain actions of individuals who are
within the structure” ([26], p. 302).

An understanding of social capital is commonly embedded into a broader conceptualization

of capitalizing social relations. While this idea is tempting with economic capital, it is less so
with social capital. “The three functions of capital and money, respectively, are (i) a means
of exchange, (ii) a means of value hedge and preservation, and (iii) a unit of calculation.”
Accumulation may play a major role in all of these functions, but is not restricted to them.
The worth of capital also stretches to the functions of distribution and circulation within a
commodity and service economy [27]. Taxation and social security contributions are other
examples of how capital is used. In addition, economic capital accumulation implies accumu­
lation of both surplus and debt. The execution of all these functions requires not only a gen­
eral usability of capital but also a (statistical) scale of measurement that enables comparisons
and evaluations across a diverse field of objectives, and of spatial and temporal scales. All this
is not given—or not sufficiently so—with social capital. It is possible to weigh and to qualify
the direction of network relations, but still no adequate measures are available which account
for the latent variables associated with social capital. In other words, it makes no sense to say
“we must double solidarity or trust by doing X.” It would, however, be a scientifically fruitful
endeavor to develop indexes of social capital—based on trust, solidarity, network relations,
etc.—with the aim of investigating social networks comparatively.” [25]

In so doing, a strategy of obscuring or fuzziness is not constructive as can sometimes be

detected in qualitative empirical social network research. For example, Dill ([28], p. 85) claims
for his own approach that a definition should be a clear and simple one: “Social capital is
the sum of intangible merits and goods within a community” (translation A.K.). In fact, this
definition is anything but clear and simple. What can be accepted as “intangible merits” in
communities and by whom? Who or what defines communities, and why are we dealing
now with communities instead of networks? Are they identical? Who is producing and who
is consuming intangible goods, based on which distribution rules? How does one sum up
intangible goods? This definition is different from the accumulation and the “unit of calcula­
tion” concept because it provides no clues about distributional rules (it is a simple sum), the
nature of intangible goods, and the nature of communities (which is much harder to specify
than talking about social networks). The distinctive property of social capital in comparison
with human or economic capital is, according to Dill [28], totally idealistic nature.
 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 195
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The following chapter presents one attempt to operationalize the qualities that are associated
with social capital in quantitative terms in the context of a social-spatial network. It seeks to
address the problem of team assembly mechanisms (the topological space) with its potential
impacts on the spatial distribution of these teams (the chorological space) in terms of the suc­
cess experienced in conducting their projects.

4. An agent-based geosimulation model of a semi-empirical social

network

4.1. Introductory remarks

The basic idea of the approach to translate the qualitative characteristics of social capital
into quantitative properties is given with the number of face-to-face meeting opportunities.
Though we are aware of the fact that the creation and continuation of social relations today are
significantly influenced, or even determined, by social media technologies occupying virtual
spaces, we are convinced that meeting opportunities of physically present people also have a
strong impact on the process of tying relationships between them. The purpose of investigat­
ing networking mechanisms is, therefore, threefold: first, the geosimulation model simulates
processes that represent the evolution of a large(r) network derived from a finite number of
small(er) team networks. This evolution is thought to represent an increase of network con­
nections, that is, an increase of social capital. Second, the model seeks to carve out the statisti­
cal meaning of our core variable number of face-to-face meeting opportunities as a latent variable
that points to one condition of creating and allocating social capital. Third, since face-to-face
communication takes place in physical space, the geosimulation model is used to analyze
potential theoretical relationships between a network­based and a place­based geography.
With respect to our interest of studying networking mechanisms, we argue that the evolution
toward a large connected network contributes to overcoming isolated and fragmented efforts
toward a common goal. Achieving synergies through effective trans-local knowledge transfer
is a goal that has been investigated in (social) network analysis for some time [29–31]. In this
respect, agent-based simulation is an appropriate method to explore the underlying processes
that lead to these networking mechanisms [32].
As a first step of this investigation, we selected and then adapted to our own needs a theo­
retical reference model developed by Guimera et al. [33] and made available as a NetLogo
model by Bakshy and Wilensky [34]. The question raised ([33], p. 699) remains evident to
some degree in our context too: “Is there a large connected cluster comprising most of the
agents or is the network composed of numerous smaller clusters?” The ideal size does not
necessarily correspond simply to exactly one all-encompassing network: “Successful teams
evolve toward a size that is large enough to enable specialization and effective division of
labor among teammates but small enough to avoid overwhelming costs of group coordina­
tion” ([33], p. 697). Where our empirical research is concerned, we are less interested in eco­
nomic costs than in the creation of sustainable social interactions.
196 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

These assumptions are taken as relevant premises for networking mechanisms. In so doing,
our focus shifts to the parameters that influence or determine the construction of large(r)
social networks that are initially small and more or less isolated due to the design of the social
project. These mechanisms are understood as operators of translating social capital into quan­
titative units. The parameters used can be divided into three general domains: (i) actor-based
parameters, (ii) linkage-based parameters and (iii) place-based parameters.

4.2. The empirical case studies

The empirical case studies for which an agent-based simulation model was constructed, one
which relies theoretically on the prototype model, derives from an Austrian social project enti­
tled “Keep the Ball Rolling.” This project aims to enhance social well-being at a regional level
by encouraging the local population to put into practice ideas that they are convinced are rel­
evant. Individuals or small teams are called to submit project proposals that help reduce social
injustice and promote social cohesion. Successful teams are awarded a grant to fund their proj­
ects, and in addition receive organizational support. The project started in the Lungau region
(Salzburg) in 2011 and was taken up by Steirische Eisenstrasse (Styria), Mühlviertler Alm
(Upper Austria), and Mostviertel Mitte (Lower Austria) regions [35–36]. The empirical data
used for the following simulation models are from the Styrian and Upper Austrian regions.

The project proposals are presented by the teams at three jury meetings. The successful can­
didates must implement their projects within 18 months. Every jury session is followed by a
public celebration where the successful projects are presented. Because the implementation of
a project is supported scientifically by a team of researchers for the duration of the project, sev­
eral further meetings, ranging from small informal meetings to larger stakeholder workshops,
are offered. Every team leader is invited to participate in a semi-standardized questionnaire
designed to obtain knowledge about the project team in terms of its size and composition.

The analysis is concerned with how the number of such meetings (1) determines the team
assembly mechanisms, (2) correlates with other determinants and (3) correlates with a place-
based geography.

4.3. The model design

In order to analyze the development of collaborative socio-spatial network structures of ini­

tially small(er) and unconnected teams in two Austrian regions, a simulation model was con­
structed that includes some of the general ideas of the original model [33]. However, there
are a number of major differences between our model and the original one: (1) The number
of teams is initialized at three time steps and not stepwise; with this adaptation, we represent
the selection process of successful teams. (2) Teams can vary in size. (3) Teams can also vary
in network structure, while the original model only allows the implementation of teams of
three actors that are fully connected, the “Keep-The-Ball-Rolling” project does not have such
restrictions. (4) Individual agents (and not only teams of three agents) are inserted as new
potential collaborators; this feature will play a crucial role in the future modelling process
when data sets are available that will be collected approximately 2 years after the official
 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 197
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end of the social project (data for the Mühlviertler Alm region are currently missing, while
data for the Steirische Eisenstrasse are not yet fully edited). Therefore, we do not refer to this
characteristic of the model in this paper. (5) The original teams can be merged, either by a
team leader (i.e., the leader of a project team) or by a team member (which is not possible in
the reference model) who is selected stochastically for a new connection. This adaptation was
implemented due to the nature of events that are realized during the different types of project
meetings which can consist of stakeholder workshops, project presentations and informal
meetings, as well as ad hoc assistance from the staff of the regional offices. Although we do
not consider these different event properties explicitly, they remain important to justify the
“connecting role” of both agent types, that is, team leaders and team members. The original
model takes only team leaders as connectors into account.
The construction of the two regional socio-spatial network models is based on standardized
questionnaires that were conducted at the beginning of the project in each region. Every team
leader of a project who was awarded a grant to participate with her/his project and who took
part in the survey was asked about her/his team collaborators. We also know the team leader’s
home address (but not those of the collaborators, which affects the analysis). The numbers of
actors and network ties are given in Table 1.

The two models are initialized with these settings of nodes and edges. In the style of the ref­
erence model, a six-dimensional parameter space is used to analyze the networking mecha­
nisms among team leaders, team members and between them. The aim of this procedure is
to detect common patterns of relevance of and relationship between the six parameters that
seem to determine the behavior of social networks in terms of their structure and dynamic.
Table 2 gives an overview of the parameters and the ranges of values within which the further
simulation results have been analyzed.
The parameter selAgents determines the likelihood that agents attending an event are willing
to collaborate; for example, selAgents = 50% means that 50% of all attendees of a workshop
are willing to collaborate. The parameter selAgentType specifies which agent type—the team
leader or the team member—is more likely to be willing to collaborate. If selAgentType = 50%,
both agent types are equally likely to be willing to collaborate; if selAgentType < 50%, more
team leaders are likely to be willing to collaborate. The interval of both parameters has a
large range in order to detect network differences because of asymmetric probabilities. The
maximum number of agents who are likely to collaborate, maxSelAgents, is a conservative
estimate based on our experience of events we have organized in both regions. These three
parameters affect the behavior of the agents, while the following two affect the relationship

Number of … Team leaders Team members Network ties

Styrian region 79 396 441

Upper Austrian region 59 418 655

Table 1. Number of registered team leaders, team members, and network ties among and between them in the Steirische
Eisenstrasse (Styrian region) and the Mühlviertler Alm (upper Austrian region).
198 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

between them. The conTeamLeader and conTeamMember parameters determine stochastically

how agents connect among themselves. If, for example, conTeamLeader = 10%, then in 10% of
all cases team leaders connect with other team leaders, and in 90% of all cases they connect
with team members. The same rule applies to conTeamMember.
The last parameter of Table 2, numEvents, determines the number of events that take place
during a simulation run. This is our core parameter for implementing social capital as a quan­
titative approximation. Events are defined here as face-to-face meetings and hence exclude
Internet-based communications. The range of values varies between 1 event and 160 events.
Taking into account that one simulation run takes 160 steps, which represents a time period
of 160 weeks or almost 3 years (i.e., the project time of approx. 80 weeks and the post-project
time of another 80 weeks when a posteriori questionnaires are conducted to evaluate the sus­
tainability of the projects), the number of events varies between just one meeting during or
after the social festival, and meetings on a weekly basis.

The social network simulation models were created using NetLogo 6.0 [37]. The analysis of
the modelling results has two stages: first, a statistical analysis composed of a multivariate
linear regression analysis and a cluster analysis was conducted. Second, a simulation analysis
consisting of representative simulation runs investigated the behavior of the social networks
by considering the network parameters ‘closeness centrality’ and ‘betweenness centrality.’
Figure 1 represents the simulation process graphically. The model used here is available as an
updated version at OpenABM (https://www.openabm.org/model/5583/version/1).

4.4. Some selected model results

All possible combinations of values (that is, 3888 in this case) within the intervals of the six
variables were computed, which led to 3888 mean values across all variations. These mean
values were then used to compute average bivariate correlations and measurements of

Parameter Description Interval of analysis

selAgents Probability of selecting agents per event who are willing to [20, (30)1, 80] %
collaborate

selAgentType Probability of selecting team leaders or team members per [20, (30), 80] %
event who are willing to collaborate

maxSelAgents Potential maximum number of agents per event who are [4, (4), 12] abs.
willing to collaborate

conTeamLeader Probability of team leaders actually connecting with other [5, (15), 35] %
agents

conTeamMember Probability of team members actually connecting with other [0, (10), 30] %
agents

numEvents Number of events that enable the establishment of new ties [1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 40, 80,
over a complete simulation run 160] abs.

1
Values in round brackets indicate the increment value; for example, the parameter values for selAgents are 20, 50 and 80.

Table 2. Description of parameters used in the simulation models.

 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 199
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Figure 1. Flow diagram of the simulation model.

determination. The aim was to determine the strength and direction of relationships of the
six independent variables by which the versatile network structures can be explained. The
emergence of these different network structures consists of both the initial network relations
of the original teams (empirical data) and the network relations created during the simulation
(modeled data).
The method used to create multiple regressions was “stepwise selection,” which avoids mul­
ticollinearity to some degree. Table 3 reveals that our core parameter numEvents is the most
relevant independent variable for all three dependent variables representing the linkages
between nodes. The measurement of determination (R2) confirms this statement. The parameter
numEvents is, however, more relevant to explain the variation of the distribution of the links
among team leaders than among team members. On average, team leaders benefit more than
team members from an increase in the number of workshops and meetings. This is due in part
to an implicit bias, occurring because there are fewer team leaders than team members, which
quickly leads to a higher number of linkages. This assessment is confirmed by the contrary fact
of there being only a few events (1–8): under this condition, team leaders are far more involved
than team members in creating a large connected social network. This fact has to be taken into
account to avoid lock-in effects of a well-informed stakeholder group. The statistical influence
of the remaining five parameters is significantly less relevant in explaining the variation of ties
among and between the two groups when compared with numEvents, as is illustrated in the last
column of Table 3.
200 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Dependent variable Most relevant R2 of most relevant R2 of all included

independent variable independent variable
independent
variables
Number of connections among team Number of events 0.617 0.759
leaders (Styria)
r = 0.785

Number of connections among team Number of events 0.606 0.751

leaders (Upper Austria)
r = 0.779

Number of connections among team Number of events 0.401 0.525

members (Styria)
r = 0.633

Number of connections among team Number of events 0.388 0.505

members (Upper Austria)
r = 0.623

Number of connections among all actors Number of events 0.572 0.687

(Styria)
r = 0.756

Number of connections among all actors Number of events 0.540 0.652

(Upper Austria)
r = 0.735

Table 3. Regression patterns of the three dependent edge-related variables for the Steirische Eisenstrasse (Styria) and the
Mühlviertler Alm (Upper Austria).

The cluster analysis aims to explore further structures that have been unknown so far. The
cluster algorithm used here is the “Ward method,” which yields more or less evenly dis­
tributed clusters. A variation of 4–6 clusters was applied, and the solution with five clusters
provided good results with respect to a good discrimination of the values and interpretation
of the results. As Tables 4 and 5 illustrate for both regions in a very similar way, the high­
est numbers of connected agents (cluster 5 in both cases) are achieved when numEvents is
the highest (which is not surprising), the likelihood of selected agents is relatively high, the
proportion of team leaders is higher than that of team members, the maximum number of
potentially selectable agents is relatively high, and the likelihood that agents will establish ties
is high. If more team members are likely to be selected (selAgentType > 50%), then a consider­
able decrease of realized linkages follows. The least relevant parameters are conTeamLeader
and conTeamMember (although they are responsible for the relevant discrimination between
cluster 4 and cluster 5 in the upper Austrian case study).
Although numEvents appears to be a highly relevant determinant in the development of large
network compositions, it is also highlighted in the cluster analysis results that team members
benefit significantly from an increase in the number of events. A comparison of cluster 1 and
cluster 2 for the Steirische Eisenstrasse reveals that almost doubling numEvents leads to a
considerably higher increase of tied team members (approx. 2100 compared with 800) than of
tied team leaders (approx. 1500 compared with 700).

In addition to the statistical analysis, a simulation analysis was performed in order to investi­
gate the process of the network creation. For this purpose, two common centrality measures
were used, namely the closeness centrality and the betweenness centrality. Both centrality
measures characterize an agent’s position or role in the entire network. In NetLogo, closeness
 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 201
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Dependent variables Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Cluster 5

number of ties among team leaders 700 1041 156 1263 1415

number of ties among team members 805 2075 83 3402 9074

number of all ties 2132 4248 497 7824 10,423

Independent variables

numEvents 73 118 18 141 160

selAgents 58 58 47 70 73

selAgentType 52 50 51 40 32

maxSelAgents 7 7 6 8 8

conTeamLeader/conTeamMember 20/15 20/15 20/15 19/13 20/25

Table 4. Cluster analysis results for the Styrian case study. Values represent mean values.

Dependent variables Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Cluster 5

Number of ties among team leaders 184 932 1004 1299 1364

Number of ties among team members 141 1458 5293 2682 10,459

Number of all ties 817 4056 7229 12,152 12,844

Independent variables

numEvents 22 104 133 155 160

selAgents 47 60 66 70 72

selAgentType 51 51 38 34 34

maxSelAgents 6 7 7 9 9

conTeamLeader/conTeamMember 20/15 20/13 20/22 20/4 21/25

Table 5. Cluster analysis results for the upper Austrian case study. Values represent mean values.

centrality is defined as “[…] the inverse of the average of an [agent’s] distances to all other
[agents]” [38]. Distances are defined as shortest paths. Betweenness centrality, by contrast,
refers to the mediator function of an agent (for example, mediating communication flows). To
calculate the betweenness centrality of an agent, “[…] you take every other possible pairs of
[agents] and, for each pair, you calculate the proportion of shortest paths between members
of the pair that passes through the current [agent]. The betweenness centrality of an [agent]
is the sum of these” [38].
Based on typical and representative simulation runs of the abovementioned behavior space
analysis in NetLogo, a data subset with 32 cases has been extracted. Extraction here means
that extreme values of parameters have been excluded; for example, numEvents was set to
80 in one case and to 8 in another. Figure 2 illustrates the results of agents that have a high
closeness centrality (“high” defined as above the threshold value of 0.5) for the Steirische
Eisenstrasse region. The two maps differ in the number of events during the simulation run.
202 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 2. Distribution of high closeness centrality agents for numEvents = 80 (left) and numEvents = 8 (right) in the Styrian
study area.

Sixteen out of the 32 simulation runs were executed using a high number of meeting events
(left-hand side), while the other 16 used a low number of events (right-hand side). When we
compare the two graphs of Figure 2, the most obvious fact is that the variation of results with
numEvents = 80 is considerably larger than with numEvents = 8. The case representing the
lowest number of agents gaining a high closeness centrality (green graph in the left diagram)
is characterized by a high number of selected team leaders (because selAgents is high and
selAgentType is significantly below the 50% threshold value) and by high linkage percentages
for both agent types. The case with the highest number of agents gaining a high closeness
centrality (red graph in the left diagram) differs in the relationship of selAgents and selAgent-
Type which is now exactly the opposite. These results highlight the important contribution of
team leaders in two ways: (1) they are important as central nodes within the social network;
(2) they also act as multipliers for team members to achieve a central position in the network.

Fluctuations for cases with numEvents = 8 (right diagram of Figure 2) are far less significant.
Here, values range from 30 (blue graph) to 55 (red graph) (there are six different combina­
tions of parameter values that lead to 30 agents gaining high closeness centrality). The most
relevant determinants to explain the differences are selAgents and conTeamMember – one node­
related and one linkage­related parameter. A comparison of the two diagrams of Figure 2
convincingly shows that even a high number of events supplied do not guarantee a suffi­
ciently high number of agents who are tightly linked together if the other parameter values
do not foster successful collaboration efforts.

4.5. The geographical dimension of the social network geosimulation model

The statistical and simulation analyses reveal that the construction and (sustainable) consoli­
dation of social networks are influenced by a high number of factors whose inter-relationships
are quite complicated in terms of generating a large(r) connected network. Offering a high
 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 203
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number of events does not automatically ensure that a high proportion of agents will gain high
centrality in order to provide for efficient knowledge transfer within the social network. In
fact, even only a few events can result in a reliable number of durable linkages among agents.

However, one must take the specific sequence of the three jury meetings into account. Due to
the inclusion of new team leaders and team members at predefined time steps, a temporary
decline in the number of agents with high betweenness and/or closeness centrality can arise.
Fluctuations are large(r) if the number of events provided is high because meetings are likely
to take place between jury sessions, too.

Therefore, the organization of events to foster collaboration is a challenging undertaking, as

social network analysis has shown. The supply of opportunities to meet each other in order
to exchange knowledge and experience has, in addition to its qualitative component (obliga­
tory stakeholder meeting vs. informal team meeting), a quantitative tendency. Setting aside
all the network-based determinants discussed so far, one should not forget the geographical
domain, that is, the geospatial distribution of the relevant actors. In other words, a translation
from a space-of-flows geography to a space-of-places geography seems appropriate.

Figures 3 and 4 are representative extracts of the spatial distribution of agents with high
betweenness centrality (yellow) and high closeness centrality (violet), and remaining team
leaders (red) for a high and low numbers of events (numEvents = 80 and numEvents = 8 respec­
tively). Linkages are hidden and the scale of resolution of the agents’ locations, which is based
on the questionnaire, is the municipal level. Distribution within the municipalities is for visu­
alization purposes only.

One important conclusion that can be drawn from the distribution patterns is that the verti­
cal structures of the social networks do not completely coincide with the structure of the
places where the team leaders reside and where the projects were implemented. The initial
network pattern is characterized by many small and largely unconnected teams each with one
leader and a couple of members who are, of necessity, linked to the leader. This vertical struc­
ture was then reiterated as team leaders connected to one another or to other team members.
Agents with high closeness and/or betweenness centrality are disproportionately more often
located in municipalities with comparatively fewer implemented projects (light green colored
areas). This is true both for situations with a high number of events and those with a low
number. If a high number of meetings were to be offered (maps at the left-hand side), then the
distribution of agents with high betweenness centrality (= important communicators) would
be more even than the distribution of the projects. The result is true for the Styrian as well as
the Upper Austrian study area. In fact, this statement can be extended to the situation of a low
number of offered meetings if the closeness centrality (=strong ties between agents) is taken
into consideration, as can be seen in the maps at the right-hand side of Figures 3 and 4. The
peculiar relationship between the two geographies immediately prompts the conclusion that
the decisions about adequate venues for meetings should be made by taking the whole project
region into account and not concentrating mostly on the region’s larger towns.

Another conclusion that can be drawn is that with a more even spatial distribution of highly
centralized agents, a proper coverage of network geography and place-based geography can be
achieved in terms of communications (space of flows) and localized decisions (space of places).
204 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 3. Distribution of agents with high betweenness centrality (yellow) and high closeness centrality (violet) for
numEvents = 80 (left) and for numEvents = 8 (right) in the Steirische Eisenstrasse. Colors of municipalities indicate less
than 2% of all projects (light green); between 2 and 20% (green); more than 20% (dark green).

Figure 4. Distribution of agents with high betweenness centrality (yellow) and high closeness centrality (violet) for
numEvents = 80 (left) and for numEvents = 8 (right) in the Mühlviertler Alm region. Colors of municipalities indicate: Less
than 5% of all projects (light green); between 5 and 15% (green); more than 15% (dark green).

If this is true, then local projects can benefit from each other thanks to this type of knowledge
dissemination. Ultimately, personal engagement in one’s own local social environment also
needs to be appreciated by rotating meeting locations across the entire region, because then
“peripherally located” agents can act as hosts and can proudly present their project work in
immediately visible form.
 Generating Reality with Geosimulation Models: An Agent-Based Social-Spatial Network… 205
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5. Conclusion

The basic intention of this contribution is threefold: first, and mainly, it attempts to emphasize the
epistemological purpose of models and quantities as well as quantifications. This then implies a
specific justification for the creation and utilization of models. Second, the chapter relates these
reasons to a concrete methodological application, which was the translation of the qualities of
the concept of social capital to a possible quantitative representation. This has been done by the
core variable number of face-to-face meeting opportunities in a concrete empirical case study. Third, a
geosimulation model is presented which aims to simulate the networking mechanisms within a
definite parameter space in order to analyze the relevance of our core variable. Furthermore, the
mutual relationship between a topology­based and a place­based space ought to be investigated.

Our concern was to establish an understanding of models and quantitative approaches which
stress their adequateness in social scientific reasoning due to their characteristics in dealing
with the subjects that matter. It has been argued that models do not refer to an absolute truth
or reality that they do not represent or imitate reality but create their own reality and impact by
their application within scientific communities. The hypothetical-constructivist realism appears
to be a proper theoretical foundation to this argument. In fact, models and numbers attempt
to make phenomena we observe or deduce theoretically tractable, graspable and visible. Since
many social processes designed by models cannot be perceived straightforwardly or are unob­
servable in principle, it is the (communicative) relationship between model builders and model
users that rewards their use, which is more important than looking for and looking at an intan­
gible truth. “Occam’s razor may still be the ultimate quest, but in many social systems, evident
complexity is so great that plausibility rather than validity may be the real quest” [38].

The statistical and simulation results gained some plausibility to confirm our assumption that
social capital can be represented by the quantitative measure of meeting events. However,
further investigations are necessary. One issue is related to the composition of the empirical
sample which has to be expanded to the team members in order to detect potential connec­
tions among this group. Consequently, the structure of the original social networks can be
better represented in the geosimulation network model (the issue of calibration). Another
still existing problem is the one-dimensional re-presentation of social capital. An incorpora­
tion of further sorts of capital (economic, cultural) would lead to an empirically more reliable
model because of the consideration of mutual correlations between them. This, in turn, would
improve the model results which influence our understanding of the empirical reality (the
issue of verification and validation). Finally, the geographical context—in its two dimensions
of topology and chorology—ought to be investigated more deeply. What interdependencies
between networks and places in terms of spatial proximity and center-periphery relationships
might have an impact on the size and composition of the network, and the distribution of
actors on the allocation of social capital, should be further discussed. Though an integration
of these issues will definitely improve our understanding and imagination of social networks
which take social capital explicitly into account, the geosimulation model presented here jus­
tifies the continuation of research on this scientific path.
206 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Acknowledgements

Chapters 2 and 4 are excerpts which were taken from my previous publications, cited as
[23] and [39]. These excerpts have been extended and aligned to fit into the structure of this
article. Permission of re-use is given. We acknowledge financial support by the Open Access
Publication Fund of the University of Salzburg.

Author details

Andreas Koch

Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria

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 Section 4

Geographic Knowledge and Spatial Planning

 Chapter 11

Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on

Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala, Uganda

John J.
John J. Williams
Williams and
and Fred
Fred Bidandi
Bidandi

Additional
Additional information
information is
is available
available at
at the
the end
end of
of the
the chapter
chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79051

Abstract
Formal urban dynamics is a holistic approach that contributes towards the delivery of
relevant planning solutions for cities and towns. This chapter discusses Kampala’s shift­
ing urban dynamics and their implications on planning. It argues that the current legal,
political, technical, financial and administrative dynamics are problematic in nature
and generally have dynamic effects on the city’s planning trajectory. Uganda Bureau of
Statistics (UBOS) indicates that Kampala’s population has grown from 1,189,142 in 2014
to 1,583,000 in 2017, growing at 1.74% per annum. Like other cities in Africa, Kampala
presents enormous challenges to urban planners, city government, local leaders and
city dwellers. Watson elucidates that rapid urbanisation experienced in Africa today
and Kampala in particular requires radical planning approaches in order to address the
much­needed services such as water, health, waste management and sanitation. This is
an empirical study with a quantitative sample of 720 households proportionally distrib­
uted according Kampala’s five divisions. Qualitative data were analysed using narrative
and thematic techniques, complemented by the descriptive method. The objective of this
study is to investigate formal dynamics responsible for Kampala’s urbanisation from
1990 to 2013 and their policy implications on planning. The findings explain Kampala’s
planning challenges, government modernisation agenda, legal framework, urban policy
dynamics and government interventions.

Keywords: formal-urban dynamics, policy, urban planning, Kampala, Uganda

1. Problem statement

Formal dynamics such as legal, political, technical, financial and administrative are critical
to investment decisions, business/commercial and residential choices made by individuals

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
212 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

and investors [1, 2]. These dynamics have received less attention in respect of their role in
influencing urban changes according to needs of urban dwellers. They are necessary to under­
stand because they explain the manner in which cities urbanise in terms of planning. Formal
dynamics also determines how city planners and administrators react to urban changes
resulting from formal dynamics [3]. This reaction subsequently determines how a city urba­
nises systematically in terms of attracting physical investments, housing and other related
programmes. This is why it is necessary to investigate so as to understand its policy implica­
tions for Kampala’s urbanisation.

Apart from the existing scholarly work, Kampala’s urban policies and legal instruments are
enacted with intent to ensure the city urbanises in a planned manner [4–6]. Why then are
those used in Kampala failing to do so? This study seeks to answer this question by analysing
formal dynamics in terms of the flaws that cause the urban policies and legal instruments
applied to guide the city’s planning trajectory.

2. Introduction

Though conditions vary from one city to another, the increase in urban populations globally
and Kampala in particular put a strain on services and resources, leaving many city dwellers
on the periphery in terms of access to social-economic opportunities. Scholars attribute this to
rural­to­urban circular migration and migration from small towns, all of which appear con­
siderably the same across the globe as people assume that there is good life, better employ­
ment as well as social­economic opportunities in cities. The above assumptions provide sharp
differences in the urbanisation process, particularly those who dwell in informal settlement
where basic services such water, sanitation, health and roads, among others, are usually lim­
ited or difficult to come by. In this light, urban public policy lags behind urbanisation, which
often means that basic services, such as sanitation, water, housing, public transport and land
rights to name but four, are not delivered to many of the people living in informal settle­
ments. People living in informal settlements have no say and are neither informed about the
urban planning process. Effective urban planning in cities like Kampala therefore depends
on institutions and governance. But without understanding urban policy dynamics and dif­
ferences in urbanisation, the challenge ahead is the interface in service provision which has
significantly contributed to unplanned urbanisation of the Kampala city [7–9].

This study discusses the nature of the dynamics experienced in Kampala, maintaining that
an empirical basis is required to develop a policy that ensures that the city urbanises in an
environmentally, spatially and socially satisfactory manner. Additionally, the core of the city
traditionally accommodates many commercial and retail activities and surrounding residen­
tial suburbs which are encircled and connected by important national and metropolitan roads
and it is geographically divided into the Central, Nakawa, Makindye, Lubaga and Kawempe
divisions. The central business district is mostly designated for commerce and residence. All
these five divisions are mixed between lower-middle class, working class and underclass [8].

Figure 1 indicates Kampala’s five divisions.

 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala… 213
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Figure 1. Location of the study area. Source: Lwasa et al. [8].

Moreover, the chapter discusses Kampala’s formal dynamics as a multi-dimensional concept

for urban growth between 1990 and 2013 [6].

3. Theoretical framework

For the purpose of this chapter, the modernisation theory has been utilised to underpin
Kampala’s urbanisation. In so doing, the theory explains systematic transformation or pro­
gressive transition from pre­modern or traditional subsistence economies to modern industri­
alised economies [10]. This school of thought maintains that subsistence economies develop
and urbanise as they adopt more modern industrial, technological, communication and cul­
tural practices [11, 12]. Certainly, Tettey [13] observed that urbanisation varies in line with the
developmental pace of a country, and for any country to urbanise, there is a need to foster
development through the adoption of technology and industrialisation. A number of scholars
endorse this connection by indicating that the phenomenon and process of urbanisation is an
irreversible feature of modernisation and development [14, 15].

Nonetheless, modernisation theory permits responding to the dynamics that cause transfor­
mation, including urbanisation [16]. It is transformation that should be felt by the people or
for whom it occurs [17]). This argument is used in this chapter to analyse and understand
Kampala’s planning trajectory.
214 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

4. Formal urban dynamics contextualised

In the context of this chapter, formal urban dynamics refers to the production of urbanisa­
tion that comes through organised or planned processes, usually adopted to cover needs of
urban dwellers. Formal dynamics investigated in this study include legal, political, technical,
financial, administrative and policy dynamics. Literature indicates that legal dynamics are the
actions undertaken according to by-laws, ordinances, acts, laws, regulations, standards and
guidelines enacted to prevent, prohibit or promote urbanisation desired in terms of physical
infrastructural development, settlements and service delivery [18–21, 23, 24, 26].

Administrative dynamics refer to executive actions taken to ensure that urbanisation takes
place as desired by city authorities [25, 27–31, 38, 39]. Meanwhile, political dynamics refer to
actions taken as a result of political decisions made either by government or by the opposition
to maintain, promote or discourage urbanisation as a way of promoting political interests [32].
Turning to policy dynamics, [33] observes that the urbanisation of most African countries is
explained by the apparent absence of deliberate urban policies. This absence leads to uncon­
trolled and unplanned settlements typified by growing slums juxtaposed with urban afflu­
ence [34–37]. Using South Africa’s example, McGranahan [40] observes that formal dynamics
in most cities are exclusionary in terms of spaces occupied by certain categories as we have
witnessed in black communities.

The reviewed literature describes formal dynamics and their negative urban consequences,
but it pays little or no attention to the policy solutions that should be adopted to deal with the
consequences and ensure that the cities urbanise systematically.

5. Dynamics of urbanisation with specific reference to Kampala

Literature indicates that urban policies and budgetary allocations tend to result in changes in
public investment, and these changes alter economic activities, spatial quality and environ­
mental quality in cities and towns [36]. The changes can be positive or negative, depending on
the promoted public investments and the political interests underlying the investments [36].
Annez and Buckley [42] note that governments could also pursue development in partner­
ship with the private sector for planning for a conducive urban environment [43]. Moreover,
Kampala’s urbanisation is assumed to be explained by formal dynamics, which are concep­
tualised as all forces and processes that are officially sanctioned to cause urban changes [18].
According to Alem [44], these dynamics are important to understand because they inform
urban planners on how to improve service delivery in cities. Mabogunje [33] argues that
urbanisation is explained by the apparent absence of deliberate urban policies. This absence
leads to unplanned settlements typified by growing slums juxtaposed with urban affluence.
Besides, according to [9, 45–48], the legal dynamics creates a complicated and multiple land
tenure systems which form one of the dynamics in explaining the city’s unplanned urbanisa­
tion. However, constitutional recognition and protection of private land (Milo land, crown
 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala… 215
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land and permanent land) ownership rights in themselves lead, for example, to unplanned
urbanisation, thus leading to urban policy implications considering the city’s population
growth and expansion. However, literature does not provide clear policy solutions regarding
legal dynamics. On an inclusive policy note, Somik [49], UN-Habitat [9] and Katembwe [50]
advocate for a shift in technical planning for urbanisation in countries like Uganda to ensure
systematic urbanisation.
Brown [51] and Lambright [36] observes that the planning of the National Urban Policy for
Uganda (UNUP) does not pay attention to full participation of the different key stakehold­
ers, including NGOs, CBOs, the academic community, the private sector and the different
levels of government. This means that UNUP as a guiding document needs to be revisited
since its implementation appears not to be pragmatic. Lambright expresses a similar view
by observing that the deviation from policies leads to a complex situation given the dynamic
trends of urbanisation [52–55]. This study therefore provides a comprehensive understanding
of formal dynamics in relation to Kampala’s urbanisation.

6. Research methodology

This is an empirical study with quantitative data comprising 720 households distributed per
division as shown in Table 1. Quantitative data were collected using a survey method. This
method was used to collect a comprehensive and consistent data from many respondents
and in a relatively short period of time [57]. A self-administered, semi-structured question­
naire was used under this method. This instrument was used because Kampala’s literacy
rate of 91% [58] suggested that most of the respondents could read and write. The instru­
ment was designed and administered to the selected heads of households. Focus group
discussions (FGDs) were used to collect qualitative data from a group of respondents simul­
taneously [59]. A total of 19 respondents were interviewed, 5 of whom participated in the
focus group discussions.

Divisions Number of participant households

Central 54

Kawempe 162

Makindye 185

Nakawa 139

Lubaga 180

Total 720

Source of population size: Uganda Bureau of Statistics [56].

Table 1. Proportional distribution of selected household heads by divisions in Kampala city.

216 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

7. Analysis of the study findings

The selected city residents were asked to use a Likert scale of responses running from strongly
disagree to disagree and not sure and agree to strongly agree to indicate whether the state­
ments administered to them embedded formal dynamics that accounted for Kampala’s
urbanisation. The responses were subjected to exploratory factor analysis following Field’s
[60] observation by analysing the correlation between variables in a data set. The findings
obtained from the analysis are summarised in Table 2.

7.1. Formal dynamics explaining Kampala’s urbanisation (1990–2013), as reported

by city residents

The findings indicate that as cities urbanise they require strong administrative systems, which
ensure attention that is paid to the needs of urban residents in a satisfactory manner. However,
Sachs­Jeantet [27] argues that politics appears to be a hindering factor for city planners due
to bickering and misunderstandings among political office bearers. Meanwhile, Adhikari [38]
points out that though investment policies pursued by governments account for how cities
urbanise, implementation is usually problematic. The findings also support the observations
made by World Bank [25] and John [32] that the dynamics that account for urbanisation tend
to be administrative, political and legal in nature. The findings also concur with Annez and
Buckley [42] and Nattrass [41], both of whom argue that the investment policy pursued by
government is one of the dynamics that explains the urbanisation of cities like Kampala.

These findings suggest that the formal dynamics that account for Kampala’s urbanisation are
mostly administrative issues followed by politics, government investment promotion policy,
and then by legal dynamics. However, the indicator that relates highest with the government

Dynamics Indicators of dynamics Description (N = 720)

Min Max Mean Std.

Official administrative It has since 1990 been easy to put up a business 1 5 4.77 .098
dynamics kiosk in Kampala city without an approved plan

Official political The incumbent government has since 1990 been 1 5 4.56 .113
dynamics releasing much more money to finance Kampala’s
budgets only when the city’s leaders are politically
affiliated to the ruling party

Government investment Establishing a foreign­based company anywhere in 1 5 4.84 .044

promotion policy Kampala city has since 1990 been easy because of
dynamics government policy of attracting foreign investors

Legal dynamics My right of ownership of the land where I built my 1 5 3.56 3.918
residence has never been tampered with throughout
the period 1990–2013 because it is constitutionally
protected

Source: Bidandi [61].

Table 2. City residents’ description of the main indicators of formal dynamics explaining Kampala’s urbanisation.
 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala… 217
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investment promotion policy is one which involves permitting the establishment of foreign-
based companies anywhere in Kampala city as a way of attracting foreign investors without
considering the implications on the city’s planning process. The indicator that related high­
est with legal dynamics involves not tampering with city residents’ right of ownership of
the land where they built their residences, including informal settlements, because of being
constitutionally protected. Since these are the indicators that relate highest with each of the
identified formal dynamics, they are further investigated to establish how city residents per­
ceive the manner in which they occur.

Findings in Table 2 indicate that to city residents, the dynamics that strongly explained
Kampala’s urbanisation during the period 1990–2013 include administrative dynamics mani­
fested in the form of people finding it easy to establish business kiosks without approved
plans. This suggests that there is administrative laxity in terms of enforcing the construction
of kiosks based on approved plans. City residents further include official political dynamics
that occur in the form of the incumbent government releasing much of the money required to
finance Kampala’s budgets only when the city’s leaders are politically affiliated to the ruling
party. The policy implications of these findings are discussed together with those depicted by
the findings obtained from the key informants as presented below.
Findings reflected in Figure 2 indicate that the formal dynamics explaining Kampala’s urban­
isation included administrative measures, government political intervention and modernisa­
tion agenda, the legal framework and urban policy. These findings are essentially consistent
with the studies of Nattrass [41], Gervase [37] and Ndengwa [20]. Each of these studies indicates
that at least one of the dynamics shown in Figure 1 explains how cities like Kampala urbanise.
The findings support the argument made by Omwenga [28] and Braun et al. [29] in which
they argue that administrative dynamics involve directorial actions either to promote desired
urbanisation or against urban changes deemed unnecessary, unplanned, disfiguring or leading
to undesired spatial development, environmental degradation, socio­economic chaos or poor

Figure 2. Frequency distribution of formal dynamics explaining Kampala’s urbanisation from 1990 to 2013, as reported
by key informants (policy makers & implementers). Source: Bidandi [61].
218 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

environmental health. Most of Kampala’s urban dynamics are a clear manifestation of unplanned
urbanisation due to the administrative weaknesses working against their effectiveness. The weak­
nesses include deliberate indifference, lack of strategic focus, working politically rather than pro­
fessionally, staff demoralisation and vulnerability to bribery and failure to pay attention to social
justice when executing many of the official administrative measures.
As the study findings indicate, this weakness needs to be minimised by ensuring that, instead
of redeveloping Kampala based on only an inward-looking strategy, the city is reorganised
while kampala capital city authority (KCCA) is working with local governments in the neigh­
bouring districts. This is well explained by You­Tien [62] when discussing governance and
planning of mega­cities. You­Tien [62] vividly provides that some level of satisfaction needs
to be reached by city residents especially when urban changes taking place in their locations
help urban physical planners, policymakers and implementers to improve locations, thereby
promoting urbanisation that meets residents’ expectations.

7.1.1. Government intervention

Findings from the interviews indicate that the nature of government intervention programmes,
such as decentralisation and creation of more administrative units, contributes to Kampala’s
haphazard urbanisation. The findings confirm the observation made by Sulkin and Larsen
[63] that government can halt planned urbanisation in order to derive political capital. The
finding also confirms King and Wybrow’s [64] observation that government intervention of
this kind usually occurs after noticing that the urbanising actions taken administratively are
politically costly. The review led to the findings summarised in Figure 3.

The fiscal years in Figure 3 begin from 1996/1997 because, after staying in limbo since 1980,
multiparty politics was rejuvenated in Uganda in 1996. The trend in Figure 3 indicates that

Figure 3. Performance of government revenue collection and financial releases to KCCA as percentages of expectation.
Source: Background to the budget and Kampala city budgets for the shown fiscal years.
 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala… 219
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from the 1996/1997 to the 2009/2010 fiscal year, the government of Uganda released between
49.7% and 60.7% of the budgets proposed to finance Kampala’s urbanisation activities. During
this time, Kampala’s executive leadership was in the hands of the opposition [65]. During
the period 2011/2012–2013/2014, the release performance rose and started oscillating between
88.6% and 90.7%. This period coincides with the time when the ruling party under the presi­
dent’s office [66] directly controlled Kampala’s executive leadership. Evidently, the propor­
tion of funds that government releases to facilitate the urbanisation of Kampala depends on
whether the city’s executive leadership is under the ruling party or the opposition.

Since Uganda operates a cash budget [67], the performance and provision of services depend
on the revenue mobilised or funds mobilised by Kampala city authorities. This argument,
however, becomes untenable when released funds are compared to revenue collection. The
trend in Figure 2 indicates that the performance of expected revenue collection generally
increased throughout the period 1996/1997–2012/2013. It should, however, be noted that as a
matter of policy government, intervention into the urbanisation of Kampala does not need to
depend on the political interests of the ruling party but on national interests.

7.1.2. Government modernisation agenda

Thematic and descriptive analysis of the views given by key informants to substantiate the
modernisation agenda pursued by the Ugandan government is one of the main dynamics
explaining Kampala’s urbanisation that leads to the results shown in Figure 4.

A scrutiny of the study findings reveals that Kampala’s urbanisation is being influenced by the
modernisation agenda and as a result expanding the city’s industrial, communications, power
and trade sectors.

These findings support [38] who indicates that modernisation boosts industrialisation. They also
support the observations made by [37] that modernisation alters the already existing infrastruc­
ture, communication networks and supply of social services. For Kampala, findings in Figure 3
indicate that this alteration takes the form of improving physical infrastructure and attracting
foreign investors’ expanding businesses. The expansion adds to what Harvey [68, 69] refers

Figure 4. Frequency distribution of the views substantiating the government modernisation agenda as a dynamic of
Kampala’s urbanisation. Source: Bidandi [61].
220 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

to as “built environment”. However, encouraging foreign investors to establish businesses in

Kampala in environmentally undesirable locations implies contributing to environment degra­
dation. Not only does degrading the environment spoil the natural beauty of a city, but it also
contributes to adverse climatic change, which, according to [70], is a threat to life.

7.1.3. Legal framework

Table 3 indicates the legal framework dynamics key respondents identified that explains
Kampala’s urbanisation. These respondents supporte d their view by citing a number of legal
instruments that had been enacted to guide what to do and how to do it in order to regulate
and control all the activities and services by which urbanisation is to take place in Kampala.
The frequency distribution in Table 3 indicates that all the key informants (100%) mentioned
the 1995 Constitution of the Republic of Uganda and the 2010 Kampala Capital City Act as
legal instruments that had been enacted to regulate and control the conducting of urban
activities and services in Uganda, particularly in Kampala. Findings indicate that the legal
framework that determines how Kampala is urbanising includes the 1995 Constitution of the
Republic of Uganda, as well as the different acts, regulations and ordinances passed at dif­
ferent times. The findings support the observations made by [18, 21, 22, 25, 26]. Each of these
authors cites at least one of the legal instruments shown in Table 3 observing that they are the
instruments that regulate and control the legal actions by which a city urbanises.

Legal instrument Percentage of key informants identifying the

instrument (N = 24)
Electricity Act, 1999 33.3

Market Act, Cap 94 50.0

National Physical Planning Standards and Guidelines, 2011 62.5

Water Act 1997, Cap 152 50.0

The Kampala Capital City (Taxi Management) Ordinance, 2013 50.0

The Uganda National Roads Authority Act, 2006 87.5

Local Government Act, 1997 87.5

Solid Waste Management Ordinance, 2005 95.8

National Environment Act, Cap 153 79.2

The Condominium Property Act, 2001 50.0

The Physical Planning Act, 2010 79.2

Land Act, 1998 62.5

Kampala Capital City Act, 2010 100.0

The Constitution of the Republic of Uganda, 1995 100.0

Source: Bidandi [61].

Table 3. Frequency distribution of legal instruments explaining Kampala’s urbanisation as revealed by key informants.
 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala… 221
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A review of the Kampala Capital City Act, 2010, reveals that it mandates KCCA to urbanise
Kampala in a planned manner. However, the powers to enforce and monitor this urbanisation
are not clearly demarcated among the top-most recognised officials who include the minister
for the presidency, the executive director and the Lord mayor.

What this minister, mayor and director should respectively do with respect to the approval,
supervision, monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of Kampala city’s urban devel­
opment policies is not clearly demarcated. This constrains the implementation of the Act,
thereby rendering the realisation of its intended purpose (the proper urban development of the
city) difficult. This is exacerbated by the fact that the Act takes the implementation and control
of this function in an omnibus way, which separates who should implement and who should
control, thus making it difficult to effectively address Kampala’s urban dynamics [4, 71]. One
key informant substantiated the above situation as follows:

Proper urbanisation of Kampala City is difficult to achieve when Uganda’s constitution recognises and
protects privately owned land anywhere in Uganda, even within the capital city. While it is in order to
protect people’s rights in land, it works against planned development and urbanisation when ownership
is not conditioned to land development. The Constitution of Uganda recognises Mailo (individually
owned), customary, freehold and leasehold as the four systems of land tenure, but most of the land in
Kampala is Mailo or customarily owned by Buganda Kingdom. Private land owners determine what
to do with their land. They choose which activities to carry out on their land. Some people even put up
buildings without approved plans, and the law of the land does not allow demolition of any building
erected on privately owned land. Some of the Mailo land is owned ancestrally and current occupants are
too poor to develop it. Even when KCCA makes efforts to compensate these owners on a negotiated basis,
they set quite high prices. Some land is owned by the Buganda Cultural Institution, and the process
of compensating this institution faces a lot of cultural resistance. In fact, most of the areas in Kampala
City are informally developed or left undeveloped because of the constitutional protection of private
ownership of land. officials in the Physical Planning Department on March (Interview held in February
with KCCA officials in the Physical Planning Department on March 5, 2014).

The preceding findings indicate that the constitutional protection of private land ownership is
one of the dynamics that explained the uneven and informal urbanisation of Kampala between
1990 and 2103. The findings therefore concur with the observations made by [9, 46–48] in which,
for example, [46, 48] indicate that the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda and all land acts
recognise and protect private land ownership as opposed to land development. UN-Habitat [9]
argues that these legal dynamics create complicated and multiple land tenure systems which
form one of the dynamics explaining the city’s unplanned urbanisation. The multiplicity of the
tenure systems is also highlighted by [47] as a major factor underlying urbanisation. However,
these authors analyse these dynamics as a basis for developing a comprehensive strategy and
action plan for only slum upgrading (UN-Habitat), dealing with informal settlements (Lwasa)
and improving access to housing (Mukiibi).

7.1.4. Urban policy dynamics

The study findings indicate that urban policy is in the form of administrative, political, mod­
ernisation and legal and policy dynamics. The administrative dynamics occur mainly in the
form of directorial measures that are undertaken to deal with activities that are deemed illegal
or contribute to the urbanisation process. The effectiveness of these dynamics is, however,
222 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

compromised by a number of dynamics which include Kampala city authority officials’ delib­
erate indifference to developments that are being established under the unofficial influence
of high-ranking government officials. Other weaknesses included the fact that some Kampala
city officials are working politically rather than professionally. There is also low staff motiva­
tion which has encouraged vulnerability to bribery and laxity that job makers exploited to
erect business kiosks in Kampala without approved plans. Since these dynamics compromise
the effectiveness of the official administrative dynamics that are meant to promote planned
urbanisation, they need to be curtailed through adopting policy measures that can empower
not only KCCA to operate independently of politicians but also its employees to become
vigilant and invulnerable to bribery. This view was expressed by one respondent as follows:

The policy used to guide Kampala’s urbanisation exists in fragmented pieces. We have to refer to par-
ticular policies. For instance, when the issue is about approving physical constructions, we use the
physical planning policy. When the issue is about land, we apply the land policy. When it is about water
supply, we appeal to the water supply and sanitation policy; when it is about energy, the energy policy
is called into force, and so on. We hear that the MLHUD is developing a comprehensive urban policy.
This implies that at the moment, we do not have an integrated urban policy that can be applied to guide
the urbanisation of Kampala city all is waste of resources. (Interview held with a KCCA official in the
Executive Director’s office on January 14, 2014).

The findings earlier support Mabogunje’s [33] observation in which he points out that the
urbanisation of most regional cities such as Kampala and Nairobi is explained by the appar­
ent absence of deliberate urban policies. This absence leads to uncontrolled and unplanned
settlements typified by growing slums juxtaposed with urban affluence.

To ensure that this policy is comprehensive, it is necessary to develop it based on the under­
standing of not only formal dynamics but also residents’ satisfaction with the services rendered
in the city.

8. Discussion of the research results

Findings indicate that the formal dynamics explaining Kampala’s urbanisation between 1990
and 2013 include administrative dynamics, government political intervention dynamics, gov­
ernment modernisation agenda, the legal framework and urban policy dynamics. By revealing
these forms of dynamics, the findings concur with those of [20, 37, 41]. Each of these scholars
indicates that at least one of these dynamics explains how cities urbanise. For instance, [41]
clarifies that cities develop as a result of social dynamics officially sanctioned in the form of
observed culture, racism and social classes created by the official system of education, income
distribution, property ownership and access to jobs.

The formal administrative dynamics in this study have both positive and negative features.
There are those activities that are taken to ensure that Kampala urbanises in a planned man­
ner. These include the cancellation of contracts of companies that manage the city’s public
transport services and market places poorly, demolition and abolition of the informal eco­
nomic activities and structures, decisive dismissal and replacement of corrupt KCCA officials
and the closure of arcades constructed without following the approved plans. These dynamics
 Formal Urban Dynamics, Policy and Implications on Urban Planning: Perspectives on Kampala… 223
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are intended to restore planned urbanisation in Kampala. They have, however, achieved little
success because of the negative features which include administrative weaknesses. These
weaknesses comprise deliberate indifference, lack of strategic focus by senior KCCA officials
working politically rather than professionally, that is, staff demoralisation and vulnerability to
bribery and failure to pay attention to social justice when executing many of the official admin­
istrative measures. According to Turok [72], leaving unplanned developments untouched is
itself a sign of failure to enforce strategic urbanisation. Besides, staff demoralisation and vul­
nerability to bribery are also linked since, according to Mills [73] and Cooper et al. [74], poor
motivation increases susceptibility to accepting bribes.

Government political intervention has made a twofold contribution to Kampala’s urbanisation,

that is, intervention to protect administrative actions that ensure Kampala is urbanised in a
planned manner and developing an inclusive urban policy. It is, however, compromised by
another form of government intervention, which involves halting administrative decisions that
are intended to promote planned urbanisation but in a politically costly manner. The halting is
tactical as it intends to derive political capital instead of serving to promote planned urbanisa­
tion in the national interest. It therefore confirms [63] who argue that the government can halt
planned urbanisation in order to derive political capital. While the government’s intention is
to derive political capital from these latter two forms of intervention, they limit the realisation
of planned urbanisation. The intentions are thus not good for Kampala’s planned urbanisa­
tion, their political intentions notwithstanding. They need to be replaced by other interventions
from which the government can derive political capital while promoting planned urbanisation.

The dynamics of the modernisation agenda explaining Kampala’s urbanisation involves

attracting investors and allowing them to establish factories and business companies at any
locations of the investors’ choice. These dynamics also involve reconstruction of taxi parks and
roads and the replacing of old commercial buildings with new ones, including supermarkets,
malls and arcades. The manner in which these dynamics occur supports [38], who indicates
that modernisation boosts industrialisation. It also supports [37] who argues that modernisa­
tion alters the already existing infrastructure. Indeed, the attracted investors contribute to the
expansion of Kampala’s built environment as [68, 69] prefer to call it. The way the expansion
is taking place is, however, environmentally unfriendly because it involves constructing the
developments by the infilling of swamps, destroying greenbelts and blocking natural drain­
age. Not only does this degrade Kampala’s natural beauty but it also contributes to adverse
climatic change, which, according to [70], is a threat to life.
The legal framework dynamics occur in the form of different legal instruments that are enacted
to guide Kampala’s urbanisation. These instruments include acts, by­laws, ordinances and
regulations.

9. Conclusion

The formal dynamics which explain Kampala’s urbanisation during the period 1990–2013
include official administrative dynamics, government political intervention, a modernisation
224 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

agenda implemented through a government investment promotion programme, a legal

framework and urban policy dynamics. Many of these dynamics are associated with weak­
nesses that cause Kampala to urbanise in an unplanned manner. Consequently, the weak­
nesses need to be rectified. The effectiveness of formal dynamics is, however, compromised
by administrative weaknesses, politics and land tenure system.

Author details

John J. Williams and Fred Bidandi*

*Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

University of the Western Cape, Cape Town, South Africa

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 Chapter 12

Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning

Valentina Svalova

Additional
Additional information is available
information is available at
at the
the end
end of
of the
the chapter
chapter

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.79776

Abstract

Natural hazards are potentially damaging physical events and phenomena, which may
cause the loss of life; injury or human life disruption; property damage; social, economic,
and political disruption; or environmental degradation. Systematic approach to the natu­
ral hazard research on the base of risk concept is a very fruitful and progressive method.
Areas of possible disaster events could be the places of the highest risk at the natural
risk maps of the territories. It is necessary to use big databases and data banks and GIS
technologies for such map constructions. Sometimes people have to live in such danger­
ous places. It is necessary for people living under natural risk to understand and estimate
this risk and to know how to overcome it and how to act in case of crises events. Risk
management concept is a good instrument for systematic approach to the problems of
the rational land use.

Keywords: risk, risk management, risk analysis, risk assessment, mapping,

land use planning

1. Introduction

Natural hazards are potentially damaging physical events and phenomena, which may cause
the loss of life; injury or human life disruption; property damage; social, economic, and politi­
cal disruption; or environmental degradation.

Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, karst, suffusion, coast erosion, and landslides
belong to geological hazards [1–3].

About 20% of the world population, approximately 1.2 billion people, live in earthquake dan­
gerous area of about 10 million km2 that is near 7.5% of the total area of the planet.

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
230 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

93 million population of such countries as Iceland, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, the
United States, Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile occupy about 0.4 mil­
lion km2 of land where volcanic activity is concentrated.

3.7 million km2 of land is susceptible to sliding, while the population exposed is in the order
of 300 million. Areas of high risk of landslides are inhabited by 66 million of inhabitants,
occupying a land surface of 820,000 km2.

14 million people are exposed to tsunamis. The major potentially affected areas are located
along the coasts of countries facing the oceans and seas (UNISDR 2009).

Millions of human lives are lost due to earthquakes and volcano eruptions, and property
damage has exceeded hundreds of billions USD. It is not possible to make reliable earthquake
forecast now, but there exist a few success examples.

“Earthquake early warning systems” alert people of the hazardous ground shaking.
Developing earthquake scenarios, as what would happen if an earthquake repeats, where it
had occurred in the past, is also very effective in developing earthquake-resilient societies.

It is important to develop earthquake­resilient societies. It could be useful to investigate earth­

quake scenarios as it had occurred in the past.

Volcanic eruptions have great societal impacts connected with damages, disruptions, health
problems, ash fall, lava flows, gases, hot ash clouds, lahars, and hazard to aviation.

Predicting a volcanic eruption is possible on the base of interdisciplinary approach that

includes continuous observation of different parameters such as earthquakes and changes in
ground and water conditions. Joint efforts of scientists and cooperation of volcano seismol­
ogy, geodesy, magnetic studies, and hydrology lead to eruption forecasting.

The effects of tsunamis are widely distributed; the consequences can be global. So it was in
2004 during Sumatra earthquake­induced tsunami. Many countries around the Indian Ocean
were affected.

A global tsunami warning system was set up to tackle with the challenging problems of tsu­
nami disasters. Also local and regional warning systems generate scientific-based informa­
tion. Scientific modelling and tsunami forecasting are still to be improved so that the time
available between warning and action can be used in the best possible way.

Hydrometeorological and climatological hazards include heavy rains, storms, hurricanes,

droughts, tropical cyclones, rainstorm floods, heat waves, low-temperature disasters, light­
ning, tornadoes, dust storms, hail, frost, fog, haze, and others. They are the most frequent
causes of the disaster events among all natural hazards.

Local authorities must be ready for constant monitoring and technical­engineering works
in such areas. Good examples of monitoring organization and engineering works are dem­
onstrated and suggested in some different areas. But sometimes people do not pay enough
attention to the problems. Sometimes it is necessary to evaluate whether to reconstruct the
object after disaster event or to change the place for another similar construction or living.
 Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning 231
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Sure the best way is to forecast disaster events and provide protective measures in advance.
Life and work in areas of high natural risk demand knowledge, resources, equipment and
willing to be ready for prognosis, forecast, people education, and information. In case of
disaster events, it is necessary to be ready for the consequence liquidation and the territories
and object reparation. The most important thing is to provide help to people. Sometimes
people have to live in such dangerous places. It is necessary for people living under natural
risk to understand and estimate this risk and to know how to overcome it and how to act
in case of crises events. It is necessary to elect and appoint responsible people with good
knowledge and special education for managerial posts. Risk management concept is a good
instrument for systematic approach to the problems of the rational land use decision.

1.1. World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction

The World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction is a series of United Nations conferences
focusing on disaster and climate risk management in the context of sustainable development.
There were three conferences: in Yokohama in 1994, in Kobe in 2005, and in Sendai in 2015. As
requested by the UN General Assembly, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
[United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)] served as the coor­
dinating body for the Second and Third UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005
and 2015.
The second conference accepted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the
Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters in 2005 and the Yokohama Strategy and
Plan of Action for a Safer World in 1994.
The Third UN World conference accepted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
2015–2030.

2. Natural risk

Natural risk is a relatively new and not fully explored concept. There are many definitions of
natural risk. And often a scientific study or a scientific approach to the problem begins with
a presentation of the author’s position and the choice of the definition of natural risk for the
problem [4–13].This individualistic approach is difficult to avoid. Spores are carried out so
far, for example, if there is a risk without material damage to people or not.

If one of the main systematic approaches to hazard research is their classification, so now also
the concept of risk management can be considered as new step of science development and
new basement for systematic hazards investigations.

Development of the risk concept demands the promotion of the methods for risk assessment
and calculation. It makes the theory of risk the scientific discipline with good mathematical
background. It is necessary to elaborate common approaches to the risk calculation for differ­
ent types of natural hazards. The methods of seismic risk assessment as the most promoted
232 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

ones must be spread to landslides, karst, suffusion, flooding, pollution, and other types of
natural hazards and risks and also to complex and multi­risk.

Arising from everyday life, gambling, finance, business, and building the risk concept became
the subject for scientific research and basement for systematic investigations of natural and
man­made hazards and disasters.

Risk management is an important way to risk reduction. The main aspects of natural risk
management could be considered as risk assessment and mapping, monitoring, and engi­
neering methods for rational land use.

Geological risk management includes:

1. Hazard identification

2. Vulnerability evaluation

3. Risk analysis

4. Concept of acceptable risk

5. Risk assessment

6. Risk mapping

7. Measures for risk reduction:

• Legislative

• Organizational and administrative

• Economic, including insurance

• Engineering and technical

• Modelling

• Monitoring

• Information

Vulnerability to natural hazards and disasters depends on location, frequency of dangerous

events, type of human activity in the area, and other factors.
Systematic approach to the natural hazard research on the base of risk concept is a very fruit­
ful and progressive method.
According to the most common definition, the risk is the probability of the natural hazard
event multiplied by the possible damage:

R = P × D, (1)
 Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning 233
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Figure 1. Map of the natural economic risk of construction development and land use of the territory of the Russian
Federation [5]. One point corresponds to the average annual damage of 1 million rubles per year (in 1990 prices) on
an area of 20 thousand square km): 1, very small (<2). 2, small (10–2). 3, medium (20–10). 4, significant (80–20). 5, large
(200–80). 6, huge (>200).

Figure 2. Map of the natural disasters on the territory of Russia, caused by earthquakes, floods, cyclones, squalls,
tornados, heavy rains, snowfalls, snowstorms, hail, snow avalanches, and landslides (A. L. Shnyparkov). Frequency of
occurrence (cases/year): 1, <10−5; 2, 10−5–10−4; 3, 10−4–10−3; 4, 10−3–10−2; 5, >10−2.
234 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 3. Map of individual seismic risk for Russian Federation, 2005. IEG RAS (www.geoenv.ru).

where R is risk, P probability, and D damage.

For multi-risk assessment it is possible to use sum of risks of different hazards:

R = ∑ Ri (2)

For risk map construction, it is necessary to use the natural hazards maps and maps of possible
damage. These maps can be of local, regional, federal (sub global), and global levels. It is nec­
essary to use big databases and data banks and GIS technologies for such map constructions.

Areas of possible disaster events could be the places of the highest risk at the natural risk
maps of the territories.
On the base of this approach, different risk maps and natural hazard maps can be constructed
(Figures 1–3).

3. Monitoring systems for natural hazards

3.1. Topsides Induced Acceleration Monitoring System (TIAMS) for oil and gas
offshore platforms

Early warning system can be elaborated on the base of analysis of seismological phone changes.
The “system monitoring acceleration induced on the upper part of the offshore oil and gas
platforms” was developed for deposits Lunskoe-A (LUN-A) and Piltun-Astokhskoye (PA-B)
for Sakhalin­2 project.
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The system was developed by Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS (IEG RAS)
and was intended to ensure the safety of the operation of these platforms [14–17].
This system can be used for safety operation of environmentally hazardous facilities like pipe­
lines, nuclear power plants, chemical industry, etc.
According to the Sakhalin II Project, Sakhalin Energy Investment Company was building off­
shore oil and gas platforms PA-B and LUN-A at the Sakhalin Island shelf within the seismi­
cally dangerous area where destructive earthquakes are likely to occur (Figure 4).

Figure 4. (a) Sakhalin Island and oil-gas platforms. (b) Platform for PA-B deposit. (c) Commissioning works in South
Korea. (d, e) Platform for Lunskoe­A (LUN­A) deposit.
236 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

To reduce the risk of environmental accidents that can appear during oil and gas produc­
tion as a result of destructive earthquake, Client took a decision to provide platforms with
Topsides Induced Acceleration Monitoring System (further referred as TIAMS).
Function of the TIAMS is to distinguish dangerous earthquakes from other impacts induced
to the platform. Ice impacts, ship impacts, wave impacts, drill snatch, etc. also can cause accel­
erations at the topsides of the platforms. The TIAMS will initiate the emergency shutdown
signal (ESD) in case the destructive earthquake has been detected. The signal will be done if
acceleration level will exceed the threshold of 0.5 g in any key point of the platform.

3.2. Landslide monitoring system for coastal slope of the river Yenissei

Experience of the system creation was used for real­time early warning landslide monitoring
system construction. This system was successfully used for landslide monitoring of coastal
slope of the river Yenissei.
Geohazard monitoring system designed to monitor landslide at the coastal slope of the river
Yenissei in real time [15–17]. The system provides rapid collection of measurement data on the
state of the observed landslides, processing, and analysis of monitoring results (Figure 5a).
The monitoring system provides collecting, processing, and distributing data. It includes
eight mass displacements of ground points, two points of monitoring changes in the level of
groundwater, and automatic workplace of a geologist (Figure 5b–d).
Equipment set deep frame is designed to measure linear displacement by its transformation
into a digital code (Figure 5b). Complete registration of groundwater level is designed for
continuous automated measurement level, water temperature, and atmospheric pressure
well, and transfer of the measurement results in digital form (Figure 5b–d).
The monitoring system has two operating modes: normal and abnormal. If the ground speed
displacement mass or velocity of groundwater level changes less than threshold, the informa­
tion is recorded, analyzed, and compared with data obtained previously. When the speed of
the displacement of soil mass or rate of change of groundwater level exceeds a predetermined
threshold, the equipment sends an alarm. Alarm is the basis for decisions on a more detailed
examination of the coastal slope and, if necessary, the evacuation of people from the building
and further strengthening of the coastal slope (Figure 5e,f).

3.3. Landslide monitoring system for objects of the 2014 Olympics in Sochi

It is necessary to elaborate specific monitoring system for every type of landslide. One of the
case studies was mountain area of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Caucuses. The main
geologic hazards along the road from Adler to Krasnaya Polyana are landslides. Monitoring
systems are installed at a number of Olympic structures (Figure 6).

Also monitoring systems were used during construction of the roads.

It was determined that the most widespread type of landslides within the study area is a
debris slide. Several sites, especially ones at the beginning of the route, exhibited block­type
landslides of compression extrusion.
 Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning 237
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Figure 5. (a) Trade and amusement complex “JUNE,” located on the monitored coastal slope of the river Yenissei. (b) The
main window of the work program. (c) Equipment set deep frame. (d) Complete registration of groundwater levels. (e)
Installation and commissioning of geohazard monitoring system (Ginzburg). (f) After installation and commissioning of
geohazard monitoring system (Ginzburg).

Two general methods of observations were accepted in the automatic monitoring system along
the combined highway and railway: (1) extensometer and (2) inclinometric measurement in
238 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 6. (a) Ski slope. (b) Bobsleigh track. (c) Bobsleigh track. (d) Ski jump. (e) The location of landslide sites along the
combined road from Adler to Alpika service (Krasnaya Polyana).

drills. The results of research have shown that the most useful parameters related to the charac­
terization of an active landslide state and sliding dynamics are landslide displacement velocity,
depths of slip surfaces, and propagation of active displacements within the territory [17].

Landslide hazard criteria were proposed for the constructions of the road based on the
monitoring data of an active landslide along the railway from Adler to Krasnaya Polyana.
Several monitoring methods as related to the landslide hazard were recommended along the
 Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning 239
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Adler­Krasnaya Polyana railway: automatic observations of displacements over the slope sur­
face using extensometers and inclinometers (during site visits and in partly automatic mode).

3.4. Russia-Turkey gas pipeline “Blue Stream” monitoring system

The construction of the Russia-Turkey gas pipeline “Blue Stream” was accomplished in 2002
(Figure 7).

The pipeline route has a total length of 1226 km. It crosses the Black Sea. The pipeline crosses
the northwestern slopes of the Big Caucasus Ridge. Thirty-five landslides are registered there;
seven of them are very hazardous. The online operating automatic control system of landslide
processes was developed for these sites. The next registering devices were installed at each
of the seven sites: the seismic acoustic control unit, the inclinometer control unit, and the
groundwater­level control unit.

The measurement complex included the gauge of seismic acoustic emission and two units
of data registration and collection. Three­point extensometer was applied for rock mass dis­
placement measurement. The measured data are transferred to the monitoring center, where
they are processed using the special software.

Also the remote sensing control based on the high­resolution space and aerial survey is used.
The remote survey data are also processed using the special software. The developed monitor­
ing system permits to control the conditions of the landslide­prone slopes and thus ensure the
safety of pipeline operation at the site of high geological risk.

Figure 7. (a) “Blue Stream” scheme. (b) “Blue Stream” during construction. (c) The compressor station “Beregovaya,” view
from the sea. (d) The compressor station “Beregovaya,” visible glade in which the pipeline is buried.
240 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 8. (a, b) Eastern Siberia-Pacific ocean oil pipeline (c, d, e, f). ESPOOP construction.

3.5. Eastern Siberia-Pacific ocean oil pipeline

Similar monitoring system was elaborated and constructed for ESPOOP. The Eastern Siberia­
Pacific Ocean oil pipeline (ESPO pipeline or ESPOOP) is a pipeline system for exporting
 Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning 241
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Russian crude oil to the Asia-Pacific markets (Japan, China, and Korea). The pipeline is built
and operated by Russian pipeline company Transneft. The 4857­kilometer pipeline is being
laid by the route of Taishet-Kazachinskoye-Skovorodino-Kozmino. Because of protests of
environmental organizations, the initial pipeline route was moved 40 kilometers north of
Lake Baikal (Figure 8).

During the construction of pipelines, the necessity of laying tracks on sloping areas or near
them (at the intersection of rivers, construction along the coast, etc.) arises (Figure 8).

IEG RAS provided geological research before and during ESPOOP construction and elabo­
rated ESPOOP monitoring system.

4. Conclusions

Risk management concept is a good instrument for systematic approach to the problems of
the rational land use. Measures for risk reduction could be legislative; organizational and
administrative; economic, including insurance; engineering and technical; modelling; moni­
toring; and informative. Monitoring system organization and construction are two of the
most important methods for natural hazard forecasting, prognosis, and early warning.

Conflict of interest

There is no conflict of interests in the chapter.

Author details

Valentina Svalova

Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow,

Russia

References

[1] Kutepov VM, Sheko AI, Anisimova NG, Burova VN, Victorov AS, et al. Natural Hazards
in Russia. Exogenous Geological Hazards. Moscow: KRUK; 2002. 345 p

[2] Osipov VI, Shojgu SK, Vladimirov VA, YuL V, Avdod’in VP, et al. Natural Hazards in
Russia. Natural Hazards and Society. Moscow: KRUK; 2002. 245 p
242 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

[3] Wirtz A, Kron W, Löw P, Steuer M. The need for data: Natural disasters and the chal­
lenges of database management. Natural Hazards. 2014;70:135­157

[4] Corominas J, van Westen C, Frattini P, Cascini L, Mallet J-P, et al. Recommendations
for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the
Environment. 2014;73(2):209­263

[5] Ragozin A, editor. Natural Hazards of Russia. Evaluation and Management of Natural
Risk. Moscow: KRUK; 2003; 316 p

[6] Svalova VB. Landslide Risk: Assessment, Management and Reduction. New York: Nova
Science Publishers; 2017; 253 p

[7] Svalova VB. Modeling and monitoring for landslide processes. In: Linwood K, editor.
Chapter in Book: Natural Disasters—Typhoons and Landslides—Risk Prediction, Crisis
Management and Environmental Impacts. NY USA: Nova Science Publishers; 2014.
pp. 177­198

[8] Svalova VB. Monitoring and reducing the risk of landslides in Taiwan. Monitoring.
Science and Technology. 2016;3:13­25

[9] Svalova VB. Landslides modeling, monitoring, risk management and reduction. East
European Scientific Journal, Poland. 2016;7(11):43­52

[10] Svalova VB. Risk analysis, evaluation and management for landslide processes. Sciences
of Europe (Praha, Czech Republic). 2016;4(6):15­25

[11] Svalova VB. Landslide risk analysis, management and reduction for urbanized territo­
ries. In: Proceedings of WLF4 (World Landslide Forum 4); Ljubljana, Slovenia:Springer;
2017. pp. 439­445

[12] Svalova VB, editor. Risk Assessment. Rijeka: In-Tech; 2018. 380 p

[13] Vranken L, Vantilt G, Van Den Elckhaut M, Vandekerckhove L, Poesen J. Landslide risk
assessment in densely populated hilly area. Landslides. 2015;12(4):787­798

[14] Svalova VB. Monitoring and modeling of landslide processes. Monitoring Science and
Technology. 2011;2(7):19­27
[15] Svalova V. TXT­tool 3.007­1.1: Mechanical­mathematical modeling and monitoring for
landslide processes. In: Sassa K, Tiwari B, Liu KF, McSaveney M, Strom A, Setiawan H,
editors. Landslide Dynamics: ISDR­ICL Landslide Interactive Teaching Tools. Springer;
2018. pp. 315­319

[16] Ginzburg A, Nikolaev A, Svalova V, Manukin A, Savosin V. TXT­tool 2.007­1.1: Monito­

ring alarm system of landslide and seismic safety for potentially hazardous objects. In:
Sassa K et al., editors. Landslide Dynamics: ISDR­ICL Landslide Interactive Teaching
Tools. Springer; 2018. pp. 309­325

[17] Ginzburg A, Nikolaev A, Svalova V, Postoev G, Kazeev A. TXT­tool 2.007­1.2 landslide

and seismic monitoring system on the base of unified automatic equipment. In: Sassa
K et al., editors. Landslide Dynamics: ISDR­ICL Landslide Interactive Teaching Tools.
Springer; 2018. pp. 327­340
 Chapter 13

Political Economy and the Work of Kenneth Arrow

Norman Schofield

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Abstract

This chapter contrasts two domains of human activity: LOGOS, the principle of enlight­
enment rationality and MYTHOS, the search for meaning through religion. LOGOS has
created our modern world, and we have many successes as a result: the general equi­
librium result for economics, general relativity, and quantum mechanics (but as yet no
combined theory of the two). Even Newtonian mechanics has led to the notion of chaos.
The Hilbert program to show the consistency and completeness of Mathematics has been
invalidated by Godel’s Theorem, while the attempt to extend the economics general
equilibrium theorem fails because of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem. Darwinian evo­
lutionary theory is another success of Logos, but even here, there are many difficulties,
particularly how genes work Logos has allowed us to create our industrial society, but
has also led us to climate change, without indicating how we can avoid the collapse of
civilization. Here we suggest that we may be able to use Mythos, our collective beliefs in
what we should do, to help us make a wise choice about the future. The greatest failure of
Logos is that we have no understanding of the nature of consciousness. If we can develop
such a theory, then perhaps we can construct a theoretical political economy. Without
this, it appears likely that climate change could induce a Malthusian trap for us unless we
pay heed to Pope Francis’s call for us to “Care for Our Common Home.” Since this pres­
ents us with a common goal, it is possible that we can make a wise choice over our future.

1. Introduction

The foundations of western science in the most general sense of the term were perhaps handed
down by Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) in his Leviathan of 1651 [78] and by Isaac Newton
(1642–1727) in his Philosophiae naturalis principia mathematica of 1687. Newton’s work,
particularly the Optiks, as well as his underlying philosophy of science, was transmitted
throughout Europe by Voltaire’s (1694–1778) book on the Elements of Newton’s Philosophy
(published in 1738).

© 2016 The Author(s). Licensee InTech. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
© 2018 The Author(s). Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution,
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use,
and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
244 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

The human sciences, and especially political economy and moral philosophy, were developed
further in France by Condillac’s (1715–1780) Essay on the Origin of Human Knowledge (1746)
and Turgot’s (1727–1781) Reflections on the Formation and Distribution of Wealth (1766), and
in Scotland by David Hume’s (1711–1776) Essays Moral and Political (1742) and Adam Smith’s
(1723–1790) Wealth of Nations of 1776. At roughly the same time, Condorcet (1743–1794) pub­
lished his Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Decisions (1785) and the
Esquisse d’un tableau historique des progres de l’esprit humain (1794). The former essay had
little widespread impact at the time (although Thomas Jefferson, a friend of Condorcet, while
in Paris almost certainly read it). The latter essay was used by Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) as
the point of departure for his pessimistic book, the Essay on the Principle of Population [106],
where he argued against what he saw as Condorcet’s excessively optimistic, “Smithian,”
viewpoint.

Since then, of course, political economy developed apace in the work of Ricardo, Pareto,
Walras and Marshall, culminating in the mathematical existence theorems for a competitive
equilibrium (von Nuemann, 1935 (1946); Wald, 1935; [7]; McKenzie, 1954).

In contrast to the theoretical efforts on the economic side of political economy, almost no
work on formalizing Condorcet’s insights, in his Essay of 1785 on the political side of political
economy, was attempted until the late 1940s, when Duncan Black and Kenneth Arrow pub­
lished seminal papers on this topic.

In 1948, Duncan Black published his paper “On the Rationale of Group Decision Making,”
[20] specifically addressed to the question of existence of a voting equilibrium. He followed
this in 1958 with his monograph on The Theory of Committees and Elections. The monograph
emphasized the importance of Condorcet’s work in voting theory but paid much less atten­
tion to the so-called Condorcet Jury Theorem. In contrast, recent research has suggested that
this latter theorem gives a justification for majority rule as a “truth seeking” device.

Arrow’s paper on “A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare,” [6] derives, I believe, from
quite a different tradition of formal political economy, namely the work in welfare econom­
ics of Bergson (1938), Hicks (1939) and Lange (1942). (It should perhaps be emphasized that
both welfare economics and political economy, viewed in the larger sense, became the arena
for sometimes vigorous arguments in the 1930s and 1940s in the work of Schumpeter, Hayek,
Popper and von Mises, etc.).

Arrow’s famous paper of 1950 shows essentially that any social welfare function (that maps
families of weak individual orderings to a weak social order) is either imposed or dictato­
rial. To obtain what Arrow termed this “possibility theorem,” he assumed that the social
welfare function had universal domain and satisfied a property of positive association of
preferences. Reading this paper and a related one by Arrow on “Welfare Economics” [6], I
infer that Arrow’s realization of the applicability of the social choice paradox to welfare eco­
nomics came about from his deep understanding of Scitovsky’s “Note on Welfare Properties
in Economics” (1942). A typical assumption in economics is that a move from a restricted
trade situation, x, say, to a “free-trade” situation y is “welfare preferred.” Even though not all
 Political Economy and the Work of Kenneth Arrow 245
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individuals may prefer y to x, nonetheless winners in y may compensate losers in y, so that

the post-compensation outcome y*, say, is unanimously preferred to x. If this holds, then y is
said to be “welfare preferred” to x, even when compensation is not implemented. Scitovsky
observed that “welfare preferred” can be badly behaved, since y may be preferred to x, and
x to y.
As Arrow commented in his paper, the negative result of the “possibility theorem” was
“strongly reminiscent of the intransitivity of the concept of domination in the theory of mul­
tiperson games” as presented in von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947). Since intransitivity
of domination occurs most obviously in constant sum voting games, I also infer that Arrow
means that the “possibility theorem” was derived from the fact that all welfare judgments
are implicitly based on transfers of wealth. In his 1950 paper, (on Social Welfare), Arrow also
emphasizes that he views the theorem as relevant to a situation where individuals make value
judgments rather than to the more typical economic context where agents make choices based
on their tastes. Since all political choices are based, to some degree or other, on the aggrega­
tion of values, I further infer that the “possibility theorem” addresses not just the traditional
questions of welfare economics, but the larger issue of the interaction between the political
and economic realms. In other words, the relevance of the theorem is not simply to do with
the Condorcetian question of voting cycles, or intransitivies, but concerns the larger questions
of political economy that were discussed earlier by Schumpeter, Hayek, Popper, and so on in
the period before World War II.
The formal exercise of proof of existence of an economic equilibrium (obtained between
1935 and 1954) leaves unanswered many questions. For example, can the existence proof be
extended from the domain of private commodities to include public goods? More particularly,
can democratic procedures be devised to ensure that preference information be aggregated in
an “efficient” fashion so that social choice is welfare maximizing. Arrow’s possibility theorem
suggests that democracy itself may be flawed: indeed it suggests that democratic institutions
may (as Madison foresaw in Federalist X) be perverted or turbulent. Thus, difficult ques­
tions of institutional design need to be addressed. Third, since Arrow’s theorem required an
ordering of social states, it implicitly brings into question the nature of the stability of price
equilibria (even when they exist). The example of Scarf (1954) indicates that the dynamical
system defined by tatonnement may be structurally unstable. This raises the possibility that
both economic and political systems may be chaotic.

Since 1950, these issues have been discussed at varying levels of intensity. All of them come
back in one sense or another to an interpretation of Arrow’s Theorem. In the rest of this essay,
I shall attempt to outline my sense of the current state of the debate, and the relationship with
Arrow’s Theorem, along the following lines:

1. Extension of equilibrium theories in economics to the larger realm of political economy

(neo­Smithian theories);

2. Democratic institutions and the compatibility of economics and politics (neo­Condorcetian

theories);
246 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

3. “Chaos” in political economies, and recent notions of complex behavior in dynamical

systems (from Newton to Laplace to Poincare);

4. Large­scale prediction or “post diction,” and macroeconomic history (neo­Malthusian

theories).

5. The effect of climate change on these theories.

6. The possibility that complex societies such as ours can reach a tipping point and collapse
(as the Roman empire did).

7. Extension of equilibrium theories and much of economic theory emphasise the importance
of economic growth. But after 200 years of growth, we now face the likelihood that climate
change will make growth in the future impossible. Recent work by Stern [160, 161] suggests
how we can estimate the costs of ameliorating the ravages of climate change. Ultimately, we
need a new theory of economic externalities. Stern [162] goes on to suggest that we need a
new theory of social welfare to indicate how we can structure a rational political economy.
However Arrow’s Impossibility theorem indicates that a social welfare function may not ex­
ist. Devising a social welfare function may necessitate incorporating the following themes:

8. Aggregation procedures: We can first mention the work of Don Saari [138, 139] who has
shown how almost all aggregation procedures can give rise to counter intuitive or “cha­
otic” outcomes. In particular, the work of Sonnenschein [158], Mantel [108] and Debreu
[46] made it clear that devising a method to translate rational consumer behavior into a
price vector was anything but obvious.

9. Chaos: Philosophers such as Joseph Schumpeter, Friedrich von Hayek, and Karl Popper in
the period around World War II were all involved in the debate about whether a social wel­
fare function could be constructed. Arrow’s Theorem gave a negative answer to this debate.
In order to understand Arrow’s theorem, it is necessary to set out the fundamental problem
of political economy, namely, the nature and evolution of the social relationship between
human beings. Since I understand this debate to focus on the possibility of equilibrium in
contrast to disequilibrium (or disorder), I shall also mention what I judge to be a significant
anti-equilibrium discovery of this century: “chaos.” To do this, I think it appropriate to briefly
comment on my perception of the main themes of this debate, going back to the time of the
time of Hobbes. For Hobbes, society could fall into disorder in the absence of a Leviathan,
able to maintain the peace. I understand this debate to focus on the possibility of equilibrium
in contrast to disequilibrium (or disorder), I shall also mention what I judge to be a signifi­
cant anti­equilibrium discovery of this century: “chaos.” The idea of “deterministic” chaos
only developed in the last 50 years and came about because of a better understanding of the
solar system. “To illustrate, astronomers since the time of Pierre­Simon Laplace (1799) have
believed that the solar system is structurally stable: In other words, small perturbations in
each planetary orbit (induced by other planets) cannot dramatically change the nature of the
orbit. Although Isaac Newton was aware of the problem of perturbations (Newton 1687),
even Henri Poincare in his treatise of 1890 could not solve the differential equations.” How­
ever, Poincare’s work led to the beginning of differential topology and the work of Marston
Morse, John Milnor, and Stephen Smale in this century. If the solar system were structurally
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unstable, or indeed chaotic, then it would be impossible to predict its evolution. In fact, it is
not chaotic, although subsystems (such as asteroids) are1. As a result of popular books [60],
we can conceive of natural phenomena (hurricanes) or even large­scale dynamic systems
(such as climate) as potentially chaotic (Lorenz, 1993)2. Although still a young science, hu­
man evolutionary theory suggests that chaotic transformations in weather may have had a
profound effect on the human diaspora “out of Africa” (Boaz 1997; Calvin 1990; Stanley 1996).
“Equilibrium”­focused evolutionary theory may also need revision (Eldridge and Gould 1972;
Gould 1996). Figure 1 shows the chaotic variation in temperature over the last 100,000 years.

10. Malthus and evolution: Malthus published his book on Population in 1798, arguing that
population will tend to grow exponentially while resources are bounded arithmetically.
This insight provided Darwin [44] with the logic of natural selection. Although Darwin
favored the notion of slow evolutionary change, it has been pointed out that evolution has
in the past been driven by cataclysmic extinction events when nearly all species go extinct
(Eldridge and Gould 1972; Gould 1996). This notion of punctuated equilibrium has been
applied at the level of the entire biosphere to suggest that the evolution of the climatic
system can undergo dramatic transformations. Indeed Greer [59] suggests that the current
episode of anthromorphic climate change will force on us such a transformation sufficient
to destroy our civilization. Our civilization has depended on the availability of cheap en­
ergy, and as we use up this energy, we will face a neo­Malthusian catastrophe. Indeed as
Diamond [47] pointed out many societies have in the past faced such a Malthusian collapse.

Figure 1. The effect of climate change on agricultural production [36].

1
Chaotic phenomena can, of course, have profound consequences. A chaotic event, an asteroid collision, may have led
to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
2
See the discussion on theories of the solar system in Peterson (1993).
248 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

Figure 2. Climate 100KYBP to now: chaos from 90 to 10KYBP (source: Global-Fever.org).

Zhang [186] provided us with some estimates of the Malthusian effects of climate change.
Indeed Tainter and Renfrew [166] argued that all complex societies, including our own, can
or indeed will hit a tipping point after which they go into decline3. Ahmed [5] ties this tip­
ping point to the combined effect of peak energy (the increasing cost of obtaining energy),
food disruption (due to climate change) and social dislocation. To illustrate, Figure 2 shows
the estimated losses of agricultural production due to climate change.

11. Collapsing political systems In recent years, we have become used to political disorder in
the Middle East, Africa, the Ukraine, and we can expect more of the same (Pakistan?). The
countries that have experienced such disorder have also been subject to climatic transfor­
mations and food disruptions, as can be seen in Figure 2.

12. Limits to growth in 1972, Meadows et al. [111] published a book arguing that popula­
tion growth would eventually give us a world where pollution and the boundedness
of the world’s resource would have to be faced. Now, 16 years later, the science of cli­
mate change has shown the validity of this argument. Hawken [74] covered some of the
ways in which we can limit climate change. However, climate change induces a prisoner’s
dilemma in the behavior of nation states, since no state is willing to adopt costly behavior
which will limit the effects of climate change.

13. Markets as prisoners’ dilemmas Cassidy [27] argues that markets involve prisoner’s di­
lemmas, what he calls rational irrationality. Since a prisoner’s dilemma is fundamentally
chaotic, it is not surprising that we can have chaotic market behavior, like the recent
turmoil in financial markets. The economic growth that we have experienced since 1945
can be related to the willingness of the United States to act as a hegemon in the creation
of the Bretton Woods system of institutions facilitating trade, the protection of property
rights and the rule of law.

14. Complexity theory: The notion of chaos has also given rise to the idea of complexity, the
possibility that dynamical systems can generate complex phenomena perhaps through
evolutionary transformations [89]. A reason to believe this is because of the Godel [61]

3
Schofield [147] offers the example of the decline and collapse of the Roman Empire.
 Political Economy and the Work of Kenneth Arrow 249
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incompleteness/inconsistency theorem that mathematics, able to include arithmetic can­

not prove that it is both consistent and complete. In addition, Turing’s Theorem [175]
showed that Mathematics is a subject to a halting problem unable to determine whether
an algorithm has or has not been completed, Penrose [132] uses these two results to argue
that the mind is not algorithmic, and indeed is creative. We still have no general theory of
consciousness, but without doubt we will probably have such a theory in the future that
will allow us to construct a better theory of rationality and thus to construct a theory of
social choice that will extend Arrow’s Theorem [141].
15. MYTHOS As we have suggested, Logos provides humanity with a set of useful clues as
to how to understand and thus manipulate the natural world. Knowledge, in the sense
of the enlightenment, allowed for the innovations of the scientific revolution. For policy
makers, the upshot of these innovations was an often­unstated belief that technology and
science would explain and redress the crises that would come to confront humankind.
However, thus far, the opposite is true. Even if there was general agreement regarding
markets, political methods, and so on, our models are insufficient to capture the scope of
these phenomena. Indeed, all our scientific riches put into relief just how defective our
model of choosing is.

Therefore, it may be the case that our model of decision-making does not consider the influ­
ence of Mythos on human decision­making. Perhaps humans need something beyond ratio­
nality. It could be, therefore, useful to look to thinkers like Pope Francis who take Mythos as
the starting point for their thought but have deep respect for scientific inquiry. As he writes in
his encyclical Laudato [100], pp. 119:

Doomsday [regarding climate] predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain. We may well
be leaving to coming generations debris, desolation, and filth. The pace of consumption, waste, and
environmental change has so stretched the planet’s capacity that our contemporary lifestyle, unsus-
tainable as it is, can only precipitate catastrophes such as those which even now periodically occur in
different areas of the world. The effects of the present imbalance can only be reduced by our decisive
action, here and now. We need to reflect on our accountability before those who will have to endure the
dire consequences.

Succinctly this captures the quandary policy makers find themselves in. Our climate models indicate
disaster on the horizon. On the other hand, our models of decision-making indicate that there is no way
to rank policy outcomes in an orderly fashion without influence of a hegemon [Arrow]. However, obvi-
ously Francis’s thoughts are from an ethical vantage point—the Christian is to be a noble steward of
her habitat. Thus, perhaps a religious ideology sympathetic to science, like Francis’s theology, can point
the way to a better model of choosing.

Author details

Norman Schofield

Address all correspondence to: [email protected]

Department of Political Science, Washington University, Saint Louis, USA
250 Spatial Analysis, Modelling and Planning

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 Edited by Jorge Rocha and José António Tenedório

New powerful technologies, such as geographic information systems (GIS), have been
evolving and are quickly becoming part of a worldwide emergent digital infrastructure.
Spatial analysis is becoming more important than ever because enormous volumes of
spatial data are available from different sources, such as social media and mobile phones.
When locational information is provided, spatial analysis researchers can use it to
calculate statistical and mathematical relationships through time and space.
This book aims to demonstrate how computer methods of spatial analysis and modeling,
integrated in a GIS environment, can be used to better understand reality and give rise to
more informed and, thus, improved planning. It provides a comprehensive discussion of
spatial analysis, methods, and approaches related to planning.

ISBN
ISBN978-1-78984-240-1
978-1-78984-239-5

Published in London, UK
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