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1.
GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE
Globalization is a fact because of technology, because of an integrated global supply chain, because of
“
changes in transportation, and we’re not going to be able to build a wall around that.”, B. Obama 2016
International trade (as migration) is part and parcel of globalization
Globalization as some great unbundling force: sectors, firms, people, tasks that were stick together in some
locations (bundled together), thay are more footloose (more free to move thanks to globalization).
Before Globalization: presence of costs of moving goods, people and ideas pushed for the clustering of
production and people.
With Globalization: drop of transportation and communicationcosts let the movement of all factors more free.
lobalization has not been just one smooth and unique process:
G
First Unbundling:drop of transportation costs→ productionand consumption can happen in different places
Second Unbundling:drop of communication costs→ splitof the tasks of the production process
They have different relevance/consequences (1st hada stronger impact) and different implications
1. First Unbundling
Two waves, interrupted by the World Wars and the Great Depression: 1850 - 1914; 1960 - today
● Importance of technological changes
rop of transportation costs as main aspect(includingtariffs): characterized by sis main facts:
D
1. Industrialization/Deindustrialization:
● Fist wave: industrialization north, deindustrialization south
● Second wave: deindustrialization north, industrialization south
2. International Divergence/Convergence (economically)
● Fist wave: divergence north - south (richer and poorer)
● Second wave: convergence north - south (industrialized India, China, South Africa)
3. International Trade:
● Explosion with the first wave, stop due to wars, and back on track afterwards
● More countries to trade with: increase after the end of Soviet Union
● Increase of trade openness after the entering of China in the world trade organization (2002)
● Drop of tariffs (as part of transportation costs) in all countries: protect international product
● Variation in the basket of goods traded: increase manufactures, decrease agricultural products
4. Growth Take-off: income convergence in the second waveisdrivenalsobythespectaculargrowthdueto
globalization (same magnitude effect as Industrial Revolution)
5. Urbanisation: linked with an unprecedented urbanisation,particularly among developed countries
6. Internal Divergence: rise of inequality, due tothe redistributive effects of trade and migration
he effect happened differently across nations and over time (not gradual)
T
Economic forces that explains such heterogeneous pattern:
1. Agglomeration’s Hump Shaped Effect
2. Home Market Magnification Effect
gglomeration’s Hump Shaped Effect:
A
→ Tendency of spatial clustering (getting together) of economic activities, which foster further spatial clustering
Agglomerationforcesexplainthecreationofproductiveclusters(ex.SiliconValley)andalsocontributestothe
creation of bigger markets (ex. European Unique market).
Therefor, it comes from: nearness to customers and nearness to suppliers
However, agglomeration forces are strongest for intermediate level of trade freeness:
● Restricted trade - no possibility to agglomerate: producers have to stay close to consumers
● Perfectly Costless trade - pointless to agglomerate: you can produce wherever you prefer
This nature of agglomeration forces explain the industrialization in the North and deindustrialization in the
outh, and the opposite in the second wave.
S
ome Market Magnification Effect:
H
→ Explain why we do not have all the production process clustered in some area
Pulleffect:bigcountrieshavelarger(domestic)demandthansmallcountries;theyattractfirmsandproduction
plants (access to more consumers) → increase of clustering
Push effect: since many firms are attracted, thesebigmarketsfaceanincreaseofcompetition,whichimplies
less control over factors’ of production and goods’ prices (increase) → decrease clustering
hese two economic forces able to explain the six facts described above?
T
With lower transportation costs:
1. Firms start to move to big markets, but this phenomenonis balanced by an increase of local competition
● Increase industrialization (north), trade and urbanisation
2. Agglomeration and clustering of resources fosteredinnovation → trigger of economic growth
3. After 1960, transportation costs (of goods andideas) so low that could reach also less developed regions
● Industrialization of South
4. Deindustrialization in the North can be then explained bybothachangeindemand(serviceoriented)and
competition
onsequences:
C
Globalization triggered competition between sectors:
● Winning sectors (and related firms and workers): increase sales
● Losing sectors (and related firms and workers): decrease sales
Winners and losers of trade
Policy perspective crucial to help the losers, to avoid political consequences. Winners and losers are predictable
2. Second Unbundling
rom the 1980s, due to the continuous drop of transportation and communication costs
F
It triggered a new possibility: outsource part of the production process (tasks) out of the firm →offshoring
Rise ofGlobal Value Chain: different stages of theproduction process are located across different countries
New paradigma: competition within firm → tasks level
ew implications:
N
1. Competition at task-level (before, competitionbetween sectors)
2. Winners and losers are less predictable
3. Changes are more rapid and sudden
4. Since competition is new at individual level, ratherthan sector level, policy should keep it in mind
3. Globalization and Trade
lobalizationisanunbundlingprocess:sectors/firms/tasksthatwerestucktogetherstarttobemorefootloose,
G
with sizeable implications for our societies
Trade is an important aspect related to globalization. Another relevant one is Migration
Macroeconomic factors can explain the first unbundling: we will focus on it
2. BASIC INDICATORS
Basic economic indicators: GDP & Measures of International Competitiveness
1. Gross Domestic Product: definition
o measure the capacity of a country to produce, we rely on the GDP
T
It is probably the variable that takes the higher attention to grasp the status of an economy
Understanding the income level of an individual, says a lot about his economic status
The GDP provides similar information at country level. Hence, GDP is a flow variable, not a stock variable
GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a certain period of time
ey features:
K
1. Market Value: goods and services evaluated with the current prices (taxes included). GDP is the sum
Ex. A fictitious economy produce 1 apple and 1 orange, withPa= 2€,Po=
3€→ GDP = 1·2 + 1·3 = 5€
2. Goods and Services
3. Final: sold to the final consumers, hence no additional process of transformation related to the good/service
DP is not accounting for:
G
Intermediate goods: to avoid double counting
Informal sector: the national accounts are unable to grasp the activity of the informal sector
Home production
Financial Products
Remittances:inflowandoutflowofmoneyduetoimmigrantsandemigrantsarenotaccounted.Tomeasurethe
capacity of production of citizens, Gross National Income (GNI)
2. Gross Domestic Product: how to compute ir
ethodologies to compute GDP, which deliver exactlythe same result:
M
1. GDP as the sum of incomes → GDP from income side
2. GDP as the sum of the expenditures → GDP from the demand side
3. GDP as the sum of the value added → GDP from the supply side
They provide the same result:
● Supply = demand → value of what we consume should be equal to what we produce
● Demand = income → value of what we consume should be equal to out income
2.1. GDP from the Supply Side
oseethesupplysideofGDP,hencetheproductionside(firms),andtoavoiddoublecounting,wecancompute
T
the GDP as the sum of the value added by production.
Value added is the difference between the value of the output and the input
We should compute the value added produced at each stage of production.
𝑁
𝐺𝐷𝑃 = ∑ 𝑉𝐴𝑖 + 𝑇𝐴𝑋
𝑖=1
here;Nisthedifferentsectorsinaneconomy,VAi isthevalueaddedofsectori,TAXisnettaxesonproduction
w
(T
AXcan be seen as theVAof the public sector comingfrom national/domestic production)
.2.
2 GDP from the Demand Side
Based on the sum of all the expenditures in the economy: 𝐺𝐷𝑃 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑋 − 𝑀
where; C is the private (household) consumption of goods and services, G the public (state), I
(investment/capital) is the expenditures made by private and public sector which will not lead toimmediate
consumption,Xistheexportanddemandorforeignconsumersofdomesticproducts(inflowofincome),Mis
the import and demand of domestic consumers of foreign products (outflow of income)
2.3. GDP from the Income Side
GDP as the sum of revenues of all the actors of the economy (firms, employees, state,...)
𝐺𝐷𝑃 = 𝑊 + π + 𝑖𝐾 + 𝑁𝑇𝑃𝐼
where: W is wages, π is profits or other sourcesoffirms’income,iK isinterestfromcapital,NTPIisnettax
( tax-subsidies) on production and imports
3. GDP
For developed economics, GDP has a positive trend over time.
However, since GDP is computed at the market values (p), two forces can explain is positive trend:
● Goods and services: we produce more
● Prices: goods are more expensive → inflation
e have to types of GDP:
W
Nominal GDP: prices and quantities are yeart. Hence,given an economy withJgoods and services:
𝐽
𝑁
𝐺𝐷𝑃 = ∑ 𝑥𝑡𝑝
𝑡
𝑗=1
N
GDP increases over time if:xt increases orpt increases.
Real GDP: quantities at yeart, but prices fixed ata years of referenceb:
𝐽
𝑅
𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡,𝑏 = ∑ 𝑥𝑡𝑝
𝑏
𝑗=1
R
GDP increases over time if:xt increases orpb (fixedover time) increases.
If you want to compute the economic growth of a country use real GDP rather than nominal.
DP per Capita:
G
By dividing the GDP for the population → GDP per Capita
Proxy for the average expenditure/revenues of inhabitants
Used as a proxy for society well-being:
● Pros: correlated with several factors of the economy, like education, inequality,...
● Cons: rather rough measure of well-being
xercise 2: Different definitions of GDP arrive tothe same result
E
GDP income = other income + comp. Empl + n tax p& imp = 344493.2
GDP demand = c (consumption private) + i (investment) + g (public consumption) + x (exports) - m (imports)
GDPd=(FCEH+FCRofN…)+(changesininventory(chinv)+grossecapitalformation)+FCEGG+exp-
imp = 344493.2
Ch inv (vriable that we dont know) = 344493.2 - 343796.7 = 696.5
GDP supply = production = sum VA + Net tx products
GDP supply = VA (all) + Net tax =
VA other = 344493.3 - 242107.6 = 102385.6
Share of agriculture Austrisa = VA agricultureal secotr / GDP =1.1%→smallshareofeconomy=develop
economy
3. BASIC INDICATORS
oday we face some measures to proxy countries competitiveness
T
Competitivenessisacountry'scapacitytoexporttheirgoodsabroadandtousedomesticproductiontosatisfy
domestic demand (rather than using imports).
With competitiveness we are measuring countries capacity to sell abroad and to be competitive in the
international market of goods and services → evaluation through exchange rates and trade flows
.
1 Exchange Rates
Nominalexchangerate(e )isthenumberofunitsofthedomesticcurrencythatareneededtopurchaseaunitof
a given foreign currency.
Lowere: appreciation/revaluation, value of my currencycompared to the foreign one is growing
● – exports (send goods to other countries), + imports (cheap international products)
Highere: depreciation/devaluation, value of my currencycompared to the foreign one is declining
● – imports (hard to buy, products more expensive), + exports (goods cheaper); currency is losing value
What determines whether a currency has the “correct” value? Law of one price and Purchase Power Parity
The nominal exchange rate is not a sufficient measure for competitiveness, we also need the level of prices
𝑒𝑃*
To have a proper measure of competitiveness, we can compute theReal exchange rate(E
) : 𝐸 = 𝑃
where,eP*are the foreign prices transformed to domesticprices andPare domestic prices.
Transformingtheforeignpricesindomesticcurrency,wecancomparethepriceofdomesticvsforeigngoods,
ence we can retrieve a proper measure of domestic goods competitiveness
h
● E > 1 → eP* > P domestic goods are cheaper than foreign goods, one expressed with the same
currency → high competitiveness
● E<1→eP*<Pdomesticgoodsaremoreexpensivethanforeigngoods,oneexpressedwiththesame
currency → low competitiveness
ifferences in the quality of the goods are not accounted for (all the goods are homogeneous)
D
Realeffectiveexchangerate:weightedaverageofthebilateralexchangerates,wheretheweightscanberelated
to the trade flows/numbers of trade partners
.
2 Trade Flows
We can check to size of countries’ trade flows to grasp information of their competitiveness
Balance of trade = exports (X) – imports (M)
Trade Openness: captures the relevance of internationaltrade with respect to the size of the economy
𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑂𝑃 = ( +
𝑋 𝑀
𝐺𝐷𝑃 ) ∗ 100
Countries characterized by being active on the international market are characterized by a TradeOP>100.
rade OP > 100→ economy defined as small open economy(open economy means tha exports means a lot)
T
Export Quota: to capture how much export is relevantfor the economy
𝑋
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑄𝑢𝑜𝑡𝑎 = 𝐺𝐷𝑃
∗ 100
Export Quota increases suggests a country where exports matters a lot for the productive capacity of the country.
5. ABSOLUTE AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
wo relevant theories of why countries trade:
T
Absolute Advantage: countries with high productivityintheproductionofagoodtendtobenewexporterof
that good → more productive country should dominate the international market
ComparativeAdvantage:countrieswithlowopportunitycostintheproductionofagoodtendtobenetexporter
ofthatgood→whatmattersistheopportunitycost,countrieswithhigheropportunitycostofaproductshould
dominate the world with the product
1. Adam Smith and Absolute Advantage
If a foreigncountrycansupplyuswithacommoditycheaperthanweourselvescanmakeit,betterbuyitof
“
them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage”
Mainidea:ifacountryis“betteratproducing”thananotherone,theonethatis“better”willproduceandexport
the goods, and the others will buy.
“Being better at producing”: →higher productivity
● Higher number of output produced with the same amount of input
● Same number of output produced with lower amount of input
Whenacountryhasahigherproductivitycomparedtotheothercountryinproducingaspecificgood,ithasan
a bsolute advantage in the production of the good.
Given two countries, and given good z, the country with the highest productivity (hence use less input to
roduce the same amount of output) had an absolute advantage in the production of goodz.
p
Countriesshouldspecializeintheproductionofgoodsinwhichtheyholdanabsoluteadvantageandthentrade
it with the rest of the world.
he intuition of AdamSmithwasthefollowing:ifthereisnotrade,eachcountryhastoproducebothgoods.
T
But, if trade exists, each country can specializa in producing goods which hold an absolute advantage and
import the rest.
2. David Ricardo and Comparative Advantage
asedonopportunitycost:giventwogoods,AandB,theopportunitycostofAistheamountofgoodsBthatI
B
have to renounce to produce 1 additional unity of A (= cost of production)
iventwocountries,XandY,andagivengoodz,thecountrywiththelowestopportunitycost(hencehavingto
G
renounce to less units of the other good to produce 1 additional unit of z) has a comparative advantage in
producingz.
Comparative advantage → lowest opportunity cost
ountries should specialize in the producing and export the goods in which they hold a comparative advantage.
C
If each country specializes in the production of goods which holds a comparative advantage, means that,
compared to other countries, they have to renounce less unitsoftheothergoodsandthroughtrade,thefinal
bundle of goods of each country can be better off.
2.1. Opportunity Cost and Relative Price
he opportunity cost is equal to the relative price of each good with respect to the other.
T
If there is a difference between the opportunity cost and prices on the international markets → profitable trade
Oncethereisadifferencebetweencountries'opportunitycosts/relativepricesintheinternationalmarket,there
is a way to profit through an arbitrage.
For a given goodzand a countryX:
● IfPzint> OppCostzX →Xwill produce and trade thegoodz
● If Pzint < OppCostzX → X will buy the good z from the international market (cheaper tobuyitthan
produce it; higher cost of production)
Define the prices on the international market which allows a profitable trade for both countries
Given a two countries model, to have trade, the prices in the international markets need to be between the
pportunity costs of the two countries.
o
2.2. Graphical Illustration
udget constraints: relation between input and output
B
Input = Output → efficient
Input > Output → possible, inefficient
Input < Output → not possible, spending more of what you have
roductionPossibilityCurve:representsallthecombinationsofamountsofdifferentproductsthataneconomy
P
can produce. The bundle of goods located over the PPC uses all the inputs available.
Trade line: where the slope of the line is the price on the international market
Absolute Advantage
pportunity Cost
O
Cheaper for the US to buy cloth =
higher cost of production (2W/C)
ssumption that both have
A
100h of labour inputs:
BCUS: 100h=2h*W+4h*C
● W=50-2C
BCRoW: 100h=1.5h*W+1h*C
● W=67-0.67C
S: maximum cloth 25
U
2=opportunitycostofcloth:to
produce1unitofclothwehave
to renounce 2 units of wheat
S comparative advantage = Wheat (50W) — RoW comparative advantage = Cloth (100C)
U
Byspecializingintheproductofthegoodinwhichtheyholdacomparativeadvantageandtrading,eachcountry
can be better off.
If the prices in the international market are between the opportunity costs, trade can happen
● US:PCint =1W(US can produce 50W and can buy 50C,because the price of W=C)
Point C: trade that both can arrive, before trade nether could arrive to this level of production and well being
Comparativeadvantageprinciple(DavidRicardo):tradedoesnotrelyonproductivity,itisnotimportanttobe
the most productive in absolute terms rather than in relative terms. He promotes a full specialization.
AbsoluteAdvantage,AdamSmith:countriesshouldspecializeintheproductionandtradeofgoodsinwhich
they hold an absolute advantage, hence in which theyhaveahigherproductivity(ex.lessinputforthesame
amount of output)
ComparativeAdvantage,DavidRicardo:countriesshouldspecializeintheproductionandtradeofgoodsin
whichtheyholdacomparativeadvantage,henceinwhichtheyhavealoweropportunitycost(ex.theyhaveto
renounce to a lower amount of other goods)
xercise:AssumethatbothanAmericanandaJapaneseworkerproduces4carsperyear.AnAmericanworker
E
intheagriculturalsectorproduces10tonsofwheatperyear,whileaJapaneseworkerproduces5tonsofwheat
peryear.Assumethatbothcountrieshave100millionsofworkers,thattheworldiscomposedbyjustthesetwo
countries, and there is no money.
CARS WHEAT
US 4C 10W
JAPAN 4C 5W
1. S ynthesize inatablethenumberofyears(perworker)toproduce1carand1tonofwheat,foreach
country
CARS WHEAT
US 0.25Y 0.1Y
JAPAN 0.25Y 0.2Y
S-Cars → 1 year/4 cars = 0.25 year per 1 car
U
Japan-Wheat → 1 year/5 wheat = 0.2 years per 1 wheat
2. D efinetheproductionpossibilitycurveforanAmericanandaJapaneseworker,givenayearasamount
of time
3. Define the opportunity costs for each good and each country
CARS WHEAT
US 2.5 W 0.4 C
JAPAN 1.25 W 0.8 C
pportunity cost: relative price of each good with respect to the other
O
US-Cars → wheat/cars = 10/4 = 2.5W/C → to produce 1 unit of C we would have to renounce to 2.5 units of W
US-Wheat → cars/wheat = 4/10 = 0.4C/W → to produce 1 unit of W we have to renounce to 0.4 units of C
4. Which country holds an absolute advantage? And comparative advantage? Define it for both goods
bsolute advantage (higher productivity): Wheat = US; Cars = non (same productivity)
A
Comparativeadvantage(loweropportunitycost;renounceless):Wheat=US;Cars=Japan(renouncelessofthe
other product)
5. W ithout international trade, assume that half of the population of each country is dedicated to the
productionofeachgood.Computetheproductionofwheatandcarsforeachcountryinayear,andthe
global amount
US:
Car production: 50 million workers · 4C = 200 million C
Wheat production: 50 million workers · 10W = 500 million W
J apan:
Car production: 50 million workers · 4C = 200 million C
Wheat production: 50 million workers · 5W = 250 million W
otal:
T
Cars = 400 million
Wheat = 750 million
6. G iven your previous results, do the US and Japan gain from trade? If tes, provideanexampleofa
beneficial outcome for both countries
Yes, US should specialize with the production of Wheat (compatible advantage) and Japan of Cars
US: 100 million workers · 10W = 1000 million W
Japan: 100 million workers · 4C = 400 million C
7. Define the level of prices in the international market to allow gains from trade for both countries
6. INCREASING MARGINAL COSTS AND FACTORS AVAILABILITY
hy do countries trade?
W
Comparative Advantage, David Ricardo: countries should specialize in the production and trade ofgoodsin
which they hold a comparative advantage, hence in which they have a lower opportunity cost(theyhaveto
renounce to a lower amount of other goods)
Issue:thisprinciplewillsuggestthatcountriesfullyspecializeintheproduct(s)inwhichtheyholdcomparative
advantage
However, countries trade but they do not fully specialize in the production:
By introducing increasing marginal cost/opportunity cost, the theory predicts trade, but without the
unreasonably conclusion on full specialization
Trade will generate grains in the terms of consumption and total well-being and shifts in production and
consumption
Comparative advantage principle is based on the fact that countries hold different opportunity cost
1. Increasing Marginal cost in Production
ssumption that the opportunity cost (marginal opportunity cost) of one additional unit was constant
A
(comparative advantage theory)
Increasing marginal cost: opportunity cost of one additional unit increases with the volume of production
ave several inputs in the production, with different quality
H
Products use inputs in the production with a different proportion
Inputs tend to be allocated efficiently
xample:
E
We can come back to our standard two goods economies, producing wheat and cloth, and given twoinputs
(labour and land), we can say:
I. Wheat producing requires more land than labour
II. Cloth production requires more labour than land
Focus on the production of wheat. Production process:
I. Initially, wheat production uses the best soil
II. To increase wheat production, it will require:
A. More land than labour
B. Best soil it has already been used, hence we can use the soil that is ñess fertile → it will
require more land to produce the same amount of wheat
III. But if it will require more land… we will have to renounce to more cloth
I ncreasing marginal cost → increasing opportunity cost
Production possibility curve: visualization that demonstratesthe
most efficient production of a pair of goods
Increasing marginal cost, PPC changes its shape
Slope of the tangent of PPC → opportunity cost
Graph: more cloth production makes the slope of the tangent
increase (=increase opportunity cost)
ood produced by the country will depend on the level of prices
G
Level of prices is determined by demand → indifference curves
Indifferencecurves:showsthecombinationofconsumedquantitieswhich
led to the same level of well-being (or utility)
Higher indifference curve = higher well-being or utility
Once the level of prices are given: (ex.PC = 2W)
● OppCostC;< PC → produce more cloth
● OppCostC;> PC → produce less cloth
● OppCostC;= PC → equilibrium
Once we have introduced both increasing marginal costandcommunityindifferencecurves,wecandescribe
hat would happen to our economies once we have:
w
No trade scenario: country will produce the bundle of goods which maximize country’s well-being (higher
indifference curve) given the production possibility curve
Tradescenario:onethebasisoftradeexists(differencesintheopportunitycost)thetwocountrieschangetheir
production, and they will both gain (in terms both of consumption and well-being) through trade
1.1. No Trade Scenario
utarky: what is produced equals what is consumed (S0)
A
If we assume a country (US) producing two goods in
autarky(self-sufficiency), we would have:
1. Given the production possibility curve and the
community indifference curve, the country willproduce
thebundleofgoodswhichmaximizeitswell-being(point
S0 )
2. It theyareinS1 : bysellingwheat(P
W decreases),and
buying cloth (P C increases),consumerscanreachhigher
well-being → economy moves towardsS0
3. These interactions determines: equilibrium bundle of
goods in autarky; equilibrium level of price in autarky
Point S0 : combination of technology of economy (PPC)
ith preferences (indifference curve)
w
1.2. Trade Scenario
I f we have two countries (US and RoW), to goods (cloth and wheat) model where countries hold different
opportunity costs in the no trade scenario:
● OppCostCUS =2W
● OppCostCRoW =0.67W
If 0.67W <PCI NT < 2W both countries will gain fromtrade
ountriesgainfromtradeifthepricesontheinternationalmarketarebetweentheiropportunitycost.However,
C
exists only one level of prices with equilize demand and supply of each country. Hence, it exists only one
equilibrium level of price.
singthePPCandCommunityIndifferenceCurves,
U
we can depict a supply/demand diagram, where:
● PPC determines the supply curve
● Community Indifference Curves determine
the demand curve
xample: Assume thatPCINT= 1W. Let’s look at the US
E
1. PCI NT <OppCostcU S → decrease production cloth,increase production wheat.S1 : PC INT =OppCostCU S
2. Now US can trade at PC INT = 1W. Trade until reachingthe highest community indifference curve (C1 )
3. Clear difference about produced (S 1: 80W
and20C)bundleandconsumed(C 1 :40Wand
60C) bundle
After mimicking the same scenario forRoW,
how much is traded by each country?
● US buys 40C from RoW, sells 40W
● RoW buys 40W from US, sells 40C
→ With PCI NT= 1W, quantitiesthattheywant
to trade are the same, there are gains from
trade forbothcountries.“Tradetriangles”are
the same for both countries
It does not always happen, ifPC INT= 0.8W:
● US: increase W and decrease C (in production) → export (sell) more W
● RoW: increase W and decrease C (in production) → import (buy) less W
Not all thePCINT will generate a situation wherethe supply/demand of each country of traded goods equilize
1.3. Assessing the Theory
. Introducing increasing marginal cost,wehavegainsfromtradewithoutfullspecialization→closertoreal
1
world
2. There are gains from trade:
● Increase consumption
● Increase indifference curve → higher well-being (however, redistributive effects)
● Countries would gain more if they have higher terms of trade
3. Trade affects both production and consumption:
Production:
● Within countries: shift in the production of export-oriented goods
● World Production: such shift within countries would generate more efficient allocation of resources
Consumption:
● Substitution effect → consumers tend to consume more oftheimportablegood,comparedtotheno
trade scenario (since it becomes relative cheaper)
● By changing the relative prices, consumers are able to consume more (income effect)
Terms of Trade is the ratio between export prices and import prices: increase ToT = increase gains from trade
2. Differences in Opportunity costs
omparative advantage principle is based on the fact that countries hold different opportunity cost
C
Demand increase: countries can have indifference curves, that generate differences in the opportunity costs
Supply increases: countriescanhavehightechnologies,whichmakethemrelativelymoreproductiveinsome
goods compared to others
Factorsendowmentincrease→Heckscher-OhlinTheory:Countryexportstheproduct(s)thatusesitsrelatively
abundant factor intensively and imports the product(s) that uses its relatively scarce factor intensively
xample: Heckscher-Ohlin Theory
E
First,wecanbetterdefinetheconceptofabundant/intensive.Comingbacktoourwheat/clothgoods,andgiven
two inputs (labour and land), we can say:
● Country is labour (land) abundant, if it has an higher ratio of labour (land) to the other factors
compared with the rest of the world
● Productislabour(land)intensive,iflabour(land)costaccountforagreatershareoftheproductvalues,
compared to other products
What is essential to determines the differences in the opportunity cost lies in the differences in factors
proportions, in endowments and production
In our example, we can assume that wheat is land intensive, and that the United States is land abundant
𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑈𝑆 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑅𝑜𝑊
H-O predicts that the US will export wheat, because: 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑈𝑆
> 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑅𝑜𝑊
ummary, why and what countries trade?
S
Adjustingthecomparativeadvantageprinciplebyallowingincreasingmarginalcostandincludingcommunity
indifferencecurvesgeneratesatheorythatprovidesanexplanationoftradepatternswithoutfullspecialization.
Such theory also provides insights on the increase in production and consumption
We shade new light on the sources of different opportunity cost across countries. In particular, the
Heckscher-Ohlin Theory suggests us that factors endowment and usage in the production can explain trade
patterns
roup project, report: point 3 the most important → May 2nd
G
Part 5: back up the policies, motivate why we want to implement a certain policy
Presentation:15 min → May
7. H-O VALIDATION AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE
heprincipleofcomparativeadvantageprovideusanintuitiveframeworkconcerningwhycountriestrade,and
T
which type of goods they could export/import
Through trade countries can reach a higher level of well-being and resources are allocated more efficiently
Heckscher-OhlinTheory:countryexportstheproduct(s)thatusesitsrelativelyabundantfactorintensivelyand
imports the product(s) that uses its relatively scarce factor intensively
Differences in the factors endowments and in factors requirements in the production of the goods lead to
pportunities from trade
o
1. Does H-O theory explain trade patterns?
o test the H-O theory, we need information on: factors endowment, international trade patterns, factors
T
proportion in each product
Wecanassumethefactorsproportionistheproduction,andwecanbetterchecktheinformationconcerningthe
first two aspects
.1.
1 Factors Endowment
We have to look at it of each country compared to the rest of the world (in relative terms)
To grasp the abundance or scarcity of each factor; we have to compare countries' share of each factor (ex.
labour) with the total availability in the world
𝐴 𝐼
𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟
Example: CountryAis labourabundantcompared toB, C, D,... if: 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 > 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝐼ϵ{ 𝐵, 𝐶, 𝐷,...}
𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟
e focus on the following factors:
W
Physical Capital: relatively abundant in developed countries (equipment, factories, patents,...)
Labour: which we can distinguish by level of education (to proxy different types of tasks) → substantial divide
Land, distinguished by the properties associated to the type of land: crop, pasture and forestland
Natural resources (coal, oil, minerals,...) hard to have an idea of the world availability
1.2. Trade Patterns
-O theory predicts that countries trade goods thatuseintensivelythefactor(s)inwhichtheyholdarelative
H
abundance compared to the rest of the world
ssessment of the theory:
A
Pros: some trade patterns seems well explained by the H-O theory
Cons: there are still some traded products (imported or exported) that do not match the theory
Intra-industry trade associated to the Second Unbundling of globalization
2. Intra-Industry Trade
everal goods are both exported and imported in a sizeable way
S
H-O theory, based on the comparative advantage, predicts trade mainly between industry, hence predicts
inter-industry trade (ex. food against cloth, two different goods). However, there is a substantial part of
international trade that is intra-industry trade (within industry)
Intra-industry trade can be explained by the rising of the international supply chain and product differentiation
Product Differentiation: goods that belong to the same category but perceived as different by customers
● Smartphones: Iphone vs Samsung vs Huawei — Cars — Perfumes
easure Intra-industry trade(IIT) for each goodkas follows:
M
1. Net trade ofk: NTk = Xk - Mk → IfNTk = 0(export = import), the whole trade is IIT
2. Computed as residual from total trade ofk: ITTk = (Xk + Mk) − (|Xk − Mk| ) → If X=M, whole tradeis IIT
𝑠ℎ 𝐼𝐼𝑇𝑘
3. How much IIT accounts for total trade ofk, computethe relative measure of IIT: 𝐼𝐼𝑇𝑘 = 𝑋𝑘+𝑀𝑘
3. Conclusion
-O provides relevant predictions for the comparative advantage principle, explaining relevant set of trade
H
patterns (import and export)
→Thankstointernationaltrade,somesectors/industriesincreasetheirproductionandsize,andotherswillface
the opposite dynamic... will there be consequences?
Countriesdonotjusttradebetweenindustries(inter-industrytrade),butasubstantialpartoftheirtradeflowsis
intra-industry trade!
→ Reduction of transportation costs, tariffs and barriers helped out the rise of intra-industry trade. The EU
Single Market, for instance, promoted a substantial rise of intra-industry trade across EU countries.
8. WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM TRADE
-O theory predicts, within a country, that export-oriented industries will expand, while the opposite will
H
happen to the import-affected industries
Butsincefactorsareusedindifferentproportionsamongindustries,thatwillgenerateashiftinthesupplyand
demand (S&D) of the factors
1. Winners and Losers
I f countries specialise in production of a of good → increase in demand of factors employed in that industry
However,ifthefactorsareemployedindifferentproportionacrossgoods,thenfactor(s)usedintensivelyinthe
export-oriented industry will gain (higher demand), while the factors used intensively intheimport-oriented
industry will lose
hat determines the remuneration of production factors?
W
Remuneration is based on their cost
Marginal cost of each unity is driven by their supply and demand:
● Demand increases and supply=k → cost and remuneration increases
● Supply increases and demand=k → cost and remuneration decreases
djustments of factors over time:
A
Although opening to international trade is a one-shot event, dynamics happen at different points over time:
1. Short-run: factors supply remiss constant (fix) within each sector → no factors adjustment across sectors
2. Long-run: factors supply can adjust across sectors → freely move across sectors, towards the ones that
generate higher return or remuneration
1.1. Example
S has a comparative advantage in the production of wheat, which use intensively land instead of labour
U
Remuneration = wages and rents
Short-run (no movement of factors across sectors, supply is fix):
● Production shift (S0 → S1): wheat increase, clothdecrease
● Wheatincrease:DWL and &DW L about increase→remunerationoffactorsinthe
wheat sectors increase (export industry)
● Cloth decrease:DC Land &DC Labout decrease→remunerationoffactorsinthe
cloth sector decrease (import industry)
Intheshort-run,theownersofthefactorsintheexpandingindustrygains,whilethe
owners of the factors in the contracting industry lose:
● Wages and rents in the wheat sector increase
● Wages and rents in the cloth sector decrease
Long-run (movement of factors across sectors, supply move, demand fixed):
● Factorsmoveacrossindustries,lookingthehighestgainspossible:supplyoflabourandlandwillshift
from cloth to wheat production for higher remuneration (move to export industry)
● Wheat production:SWL and &SW Labout increase → remunerationof factors in the wheat sectors decrease
● Cloth production:SC Land &SC Labout decrease → remunerationof factors in the cloth sector increases
emuneration of factors not at the same level before trade → total demand of each factor has changed
R
After factors adjustment, wheat production in land intensive, while opposite happened to labour
Hence, in the long-run, the remuneration of land-owners will be higher, while the remuneration of
labour-owners will be lower compared to the no-trade scenario
● RentUSTrade > RentUSNo Trade
● WageUSTrade < WageUSNo Trade
Short-run:
● Winners: owners of the factors in the export-oriented industry
● Losers: owners of the factors in the import-oriented industry
Long-run:
● Winners: owners of the factors used intensively in the export-oriented industry
● Losers: owners of the factors used scarcely in the export-oriented industry
tolper-Samuelson Theorem (seen at the example)
S
Iftheeconomycanadjustitsfactorsoverthenewlong-runequilibriumafteropeningtointernationaltrade,then
the change in relative prices (Pint):
● Raises the real return of factor used intensively in the rising-price industry
● Lowers the real return of factor used intensively in the falling-price industry
orks also in multi-factor economy ( not with just two factors), and it is defined as Specialized-Factor Pattern
W
Factor-Price Equalization Theorem:
Even if factors cannot move across countries, if countries face the same relative price, then:
● Workers (of the same skill) will earn the same wage in both countries
● Units of land (of the same quality) will earn the same rental return in both countries
Long-run wages should equalise in all countries
2. Implications: Imports
heories to predict trade flows and have a direct intuition of who could gain or be harmed form trade liberation
T
International trade allows to the economic pie to become bigger, but there are redistributional effects (win/lose)
● Why do we not all agree on international trade? Specialisation of production: economic is getting
higher – Redistributive effects: some will lose and others will win
rade liberation generates adjustments in the market:
T
If there are winners and losers due to trade, that could triggerbothresentmentanddesireforprotection(ex.
protectionism), which would lead to the support of politicians mirroring these preferences
Study the impact of import penetration on voting outcomes in local labour markets – Exploit potential
differences due to ethnic/racial background
3. Implications: Exports (China example, authoritarianregime)
Decrease of exports have consequences in society:
● Social-political outcomes: Increase of strikes
● Economic outcomes: Decrease of employment, individual income, night light intensity
Find a solution → political response
Turnover of local leaders:
● Local leader: party secretary
● Turnover: moved in another prefecture before the due time (less than 3 years) → lateral movements
Stability measures:
● Use of ”weiwen” (”maintaining stability”) in political discourses
● Fiscal and Social Spending
.
4 Conclusions
International Trade rises a sizeable trade-off
Generates efficiency gains: resources are better allocated across countries → economies get bigger and richer
Not everybody is gaining from it: winners and losers → redistributive effects within a country
These effects have not only economic consequences, but also political one
Redistributiveeffectsarebehindvoters'grievancesinpartiesandinstitutions...andpavedthewayforPopulist
politicians.
9. POPULISM AND GLOBALIZATION
ise of the socalledpopulistleaders/partiesinseveralEuropeanelectionsinrecentyears:UK(UKIP),2016;
R
France (FN) and Germany (AfD), 2017, Italy (M5S and LN), 2018, The Netherlands (PVV), 2023
In 2016, Trump became the 45th President of the US. Medias and academics labelled him as ”populist leader”
Positive trend of populism for the last 20 years, important part of Europe
1. Populism definition
olitical Ideology : stressing that values and virtues reside within ”the people”, against the established elite
P
OpportunisticStrategy:usedtoincreasepoliticalsupportandconsensus.Itexacerbatesthefeelingofresentment
already in the society
CommunicationStyle-holdbydifferentactors(e.g.politicians,journalists,etc.),withcontinuousreferencesto
the people, an extremely simplified discourse and sound-bite and catchy solutions
udde: populism is based on stressing the differencebetween
M
Good, pure and homogeneous people
Corrupted and self-centred elite
uiso and Docquier:
G
Claim to support the people against the elite (anti-establishment stance)
Tap on the fear of the people, committing to protect them by ”external” threats (commitment to protect)
ifferentcleavages:
D
1. Left-Wing Populism (Inequality Cleavage): rich vs poor, redistribution and generalised economic insurance
2. Right-Wing Populism (National Identity Cleavage): protection of national culture, identity and economic
system, protectionism vs”foreign” threats
W and RW people diffused in different geographical areas: RW in Europe, LW in South-America
L
The rise of populism in the last decade was mainly due to RW populism
A substantial share of LW populist parties disappeared with the collapse of the Soviet Union (1989)
2. Determinants of Populism
2.1. Economic drivers
International Trade:
WorldBankdatashowsthattheratioofglobaltradevalue(import+export)overGDPmovedfrom40%to60%
between 1980 and 2008
China contributed to its increase: share of total export moved from 1% (1985) to 12% (2015)
Developed societies tend to import low-skill intensive goods, and export high-skill intensive goods
Example: if the country import low-skill intensive goods (cloths)
● HS worker could buy it at a lower price, without suffering any threat for his/her job
● LS worker could suffer the competition, harming his/her employment/wages
International Trade can have redistributive effects, hence proper safety net should implemented to avoidthe
f ormation of an anti-globalization constituency
Trade generate economic inequality and job polarisation → winners and losers; economic/social consequences
Inequality express through voting → support this type of politicians because they talk about their fears
ocquier et al. (2022) shows that the implication of international trade are skill-specific:
D
Imports in low-skilled intensive goods increase votes and extent of total and right-wing populist parties
If anything, imports in high-skill intensive goods reduce votes of right-wing populism
Increase of diversity in the import basket alleviate the pro-populist effect of low-skill imports
echnological progress:
T
Transforming labour relations, employment and wages
Can generate winners and losers
Winners: increase their productivity by complementing their competences with new technologies
Losers: substitute by these new technologies, since they are able to perform the same tasks with a lower cost
Sametypeofconsequences→societymoreproductive,domoreandgetmore→redistributiveeffect,notall
ol gain from it (winners vs losers)
p
More machines = less workers → more votes to right wing
Role of crisis: When the economy is weak, voters punish the incumbent parties
he recent rise of populism took place in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis → Syriza (Greece), Podemos (Spain)
T
Before crisis, centre-left and centre-right parties were at the power: populism blamed both
Bankers and financial elite to be blamed
Austerity: weakened the social safety net – imposed by supra-national institutions (IMF, EU, ECB) to be blamed
.2.
2 Identity, Status and Culture
Recent decades have brought the rise of ”progressive” values, preferences and beliefs
Example: women empowerment, support for underprivileged minorities, self-expression, cultural globalization
Riseofprogressivevaluescouldhaveleadtoaculturalbacklash,pushingvotersagainsttheelites,recognised
and the keepers and promoters of which values
wo way to interpret the interplay with economics:
T
“Culture plus Economics”, Norris and Inglehart,2019:culturalvaluesandeconomicconditionsaffectvoters’
support for populist parties
“Culture times Economics”: economic crisis reinforced the cultural backlash, and the cultural backlash
reinforced the resentment from the economic crisis
2.3. Immigration
I mmigration can contribute to the rise of populism, due to both its potential threat:
Economic: labour market competition, welfare recipients,...
Cultural: different cultural background
onsequences:
C
Low-skill immigration increases votes for pro nationalistic parties
High-skill immigration reduces votes for pro nationalistic parties
→ importance of education
Mechanisms:
● LS immigration through revision of voting preferences and attitudes towards migrants
● HS immigration through increasing turnout and political institutions attitudes
2.4. Internet and New means of Communication
“ New”meansofcommunicationarerelevantfortheriseofpopulism,because“old”meansofcommunication
are in the hands of the old elite
ocial media (and social network) are particularly attractive for populism parties:
S
0 entry barriers; anybody can use it without huge investment
Direct two-way communication with the audience
Well-suited for disseminating simplistic messages
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