2023/9/6 12:49 Course Outline - Probability

PROBABILITY FALL 2023

STAT 230
Published Sep 04, 2023

CLASS SCHEDULE

Section Location Time Instructor(s)

Mondays, Wednesdays &

STAT 230 001 [LEC] RCH 302 Fridays
4:30 p.m. - 5:20 p.m. Audrey Beliveau
[email protected]
Mondays, Wednesdays &
STAT 230 002 [LEC] MC 1085 Fridays
10:30 a.m. - 11:20 a.m.

Mondays, Wednesdays & Samuel WK Wong

STAT 230 003 [LEC] AL 113 Fridays [email protected]
8:30 a.m. - 9:20 a.m.

Mondays, Wednesdays & Erik Hintz

STAT 230 004 [LEC] Fridays [email protected]
4:30 p.m. - 5:20 p.m.
UTD 105
Mondays, Wednesdays & Michael John Davis
STAT 230 005 [LEC] Fridays [email protected]
2:30 p.m. - 3:20 p.m.

Mondays, Wednesdays & Liyuan Lin

STAT 230 006 [LEC] Fridays [email protected]
MC 1085 2:30 p.m. - 3:20 p.m.

Fridays
STAT 230 101 [TUT]
11:30 a.m. - 12:20 p.m. Audrey Beliveau
[email protected]
Fridays
STAT 230 102 [TUT] RCH 302
3:30 p.m. - 4:20 p.m.

Samuel WK Wong
Fridays
STAT 230 103 [TUT] HH 1101 [email protected]
10:30 a.m. - 11:20 a.m.

Erik Hintz
Fridays
STAT 230 104 [TUT] AL 113 [email protected]
11:30 a.m. - 12:20 p.m.

Michael John Davis

Fridays
STAT 230 105 [TUT] DC 1351 [email protected]
12:30 p.m. - 1:20 p.m.

Liyuan Lin
Fridays
STAT 230 106 [TUT] STC 0040 [email protected]
9:30 a.m. - 10:20 a.m.

This table is generated automatically

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INSTRUCTOR / TA INFORMATION

Course Website: learn.uwaterloo.ca. You are expected to regularly read your UWaterloo email and visit the course website on
Learn for announcements.

Instructional Support Coordinator: Please contact [email protected] for questions unrelated to the course material.
These include re-mark requests, issues with Learn, Crowdmark or iClickers, or inquiries of personal nature.

Emails: Email will not be an effective way to reach the instructors. If you have questions, you should ask us during office hours or
after class, or ask your peers on Piazza.

Piazza: The discussion forum Piazza will be used for getting help on the course material and encourage discussion between
students.

Instructor Office Hours: You may attend office hours with any of the instructors below. Come with well-organized questions to
make the best use of your time. There is a limit of 10 minutes per student.

Monday 2:30-3:30 pm A. Beliveau M3 4232

Monday 3:30-4:30 pm L. Lin M3 4221

Wednesday 9:30-10:30 am S. Wong M3 3104

Wednesday 12-1 pm J. Davis M3 2108

Wednesday 2:30-3:30 pm A. Beliveau M3 4232

Friday 9-10 am E. Hintz M3 2106

TA Office Hours: The TA office hours schedule and location will be posted on Learn.

Enrolment Overrides: STAT instructors are not allowed to override/give permission slips to enroll. Instructors are not allowed to
sign any forms. Requests must be emailed to: [email protected]

COURSE DESCRIPTION

Calendar Description for STAT 230

This course provides an introduction to probability models including sample spaces, mutually exclusive and independent events,
conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem. The named distributions (Discrete Uniform, Hypergeometric, Binomial, Negative
Binomial, Geometric, Poisson, Continuous Uniform, Exponential, Normal (Gaussian), and Multinomial) are used to model real
phenomena. Discrete and continuous univariate random variables and their distributions are discussed. Joint probability
functions, marginal probability functions, and conditional probability functions of two or more discrete random variables and
functions of random variables are also discussed. Students learn how to calculate and interpret means, variances and covariances
particularly for the named distributions. The Central Limit Theorem is used to approximate probabilities.

Prereq: ((One of MATH 116, 117, 137, 147) with a minimum grade of 80%) or (MATH 128 with a minimum grade of 60%) or (one
of MATH 118, 119, 138, 148); Honours Math or Math/Phys students only. Antireq: STAT 220, 240

LEARNING OUTCOMES

By the end of this course students should be able to:

define a probability model and determine probabilities of events using counting techniques

distinguish between mutually exclusive and independent events, and calculate conditional probabilities using Bayes’ theorem;

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distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables;

define and use probability functions/probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions to determine
probabilities of events;

define and use joint probability functions, marginal probability functions, and conditional probability functions to determine the
probabilities of events for two or more discrete random variables;

use the named distributions (Discrete Uniform, Hypergeometric, Binomial, Negative Binomial, Geometric, Poisson, Continuous
Uniform, Exponential, Normal (Gaussian), and Multinomial) to model real phenomena;

calculate and interpret means, variances and covariances particularly for the named distributions;

define the Central Limit Theorem and use it to approximate probabilities;

find moment generating functions for the named distributions and use them to determine expectations;

understand your own learning style and develop your learning skills

TENTATIVE COURSE SCHEDULE

Week Topics Activities

1. Sep 6 1.1 Introduction, Definitions of Probability No Tutorial

1.2 Chapter 1 Problems
2.1 Experiment, Sample Space, Simple and Compound Events, Probability
Distribution, Probability of an Event
2.2 Chapter 2 Problems
3.1 Addition and Multiplication Rules

2. Sep 11 3.2 Counting Arrangements or Permutations Tutorial Assignment 1

3.3 Counting Subsets or Combinations Friday, Sep 15
3.4 Number of Arrangements when symbols are repeated
3.5 Examples
3.6 Useful Sums and Series
3.7 Chapter 3 Problems

3. Sep 18 4.1 Review of Set Theory, De Morgan’s Laws, Rules for Determining the Tutorial Test 1
Probability of an Event Friday, Sep 22
4.2 Rules for Unions of Events, Mutually Exclusive Events
4.3 Independent Events
4.4 Conditional Probability
4.5 Product Rule, Law of Total Probability, and Bayes’ Theorem
4.6 Chapter 4 Problems

4. Sep 25 5.1 Random Variables: Probability Functions and Their Properties, Cumulative
Distribution Functions and Their Properties Optional Tutorial:
5.2 Discrete Uniform Distribution Midterm 1 Review
5.3 Hypergeometric Distribution
5.4 Bernoulli Trials, Binomial Dist, Binomial Approx to Hypergeometric

5. Oct 2 5.5 Negative Binomial Distribution 5.6 Geometric Distribution Midterm 1

5.7 Poisson Distribution from Binomial Tuesday Oct 3
5.8 Poisson Distribution from Poisson Process 4:30-5:50pm
5.9 Combining Models
5.10 Summary of Discrete Distributions
5.11 Chapter 5 Problems

Oct 9 READING WEEK

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6. Oct 16 7.1 Summarizing Data on Random Variables Tutorial Assignment 2

7.2 Expectation of a Random Variable, Expectation of a Function of a Random Friday, Oct 20
Variable, Properties of Expectation
7.3 Some Applications of Expectation

7. Oct 23 7.4 Variance and Its Properties, Means and Variances of Named Distributions Tutorial Test 2
7.5 Chapter 7 Problems Friday, Oct 27
8.1. Continuous Random Variables: Cumulative Distribution Function and
Properties, Probability Density Function and Properties

8. Oct 30 8.1 Change of Variable, Expectation, Mean and Variance Tutorial Assignment 3
8.2 Continuous Uniform Distribution 8.3 Exponential Distribution, Gamma Friday, Nov 3
Function, Memoryless Property

9. Nov 6 8.4 Computer Generated Random Numbers Optional Tutorial:

8.5 Normal (Gaussian) Distribution, Standard Normal Tables Midterm 2 Review
8.6 Chapter 8 Problems

10. Nov 13 9.1 Multivariate Distributions: Joint Probability Function, Marginal Probability Midterm 2
Functions, Independent Random Variables, Conditional Probability Functions, Thursday Nov 16
Functions of Two or More Random Variables 4:30-5:50pm
9.2 Multinomial Distribution: Joint Probability Function, Marginal and
Conditional Probability Functions

11. Nov 20 9.4 Expectations for Multivariate Distributions, Covariance and Correlation Tutorial Assignment 4
Coefficient and Their Interpretations Friday, Nov 24
9.5 Mean and Variance of a Linear Combination of Random Variables, 9.6 Linear
Combinations of Independent Normal Random Variables

12. Nov 27 9.7 Indicator Random Variables Optional Tutorial:

9.8 Chapter 9 Problems Final Exam Review
10.1 Central Limit Theorem and Approximations, Normal Approximation to
Binomial and Poisson Distributions
13. Dec 4 10.2 Moment Generating Functions
10.3 Multivariate Moment Generating Functions

Dec 8-21 FINAL EXAM PERIOD Final Exam - Date TBA

Tutorials: Tutorials will be used for tutorial assignments, tutorial tests and midterm/final reviews, according to the schedule
above. There is no tutorial in the first week of classes.

Out-of-Class Workload: As in any university course, much of your learning in this course will take place outside of class time. You
should plan to spend between 3 and 6 hours each week in out-of-class learning. This learning consists mostly of making sure you
understand the concepts and steps that were used in class to solve problems and then solving exercises from the Course Notes on
your own.

Missed Lectures: If you miss lectures then you are responsible for finding out from a classmate what you missed and for learning
the course material using the course notes and lecture slides posted on Learn. We will not reply to emails requesting help with
missed lectures.

TEXTS / MATERIALS

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Title / Name Notes / Comments Required

STAT 220/230 Course Notes (Fall 2023 Posted on Learn. Some may be available Yes
Edition) by Chris Springer (revised by at the University Bookstore. These Course
Jerry Lawless, Don McLeish and Cyntha Notes are designed to complement the
Struthers) material covered in lectures.

STAT 220/230 Problem Solutions (Fall Posted on Learn. Some may be available Yes
2023 Edition) by Chris Springer (revised at the University Bookstore.
by Jerry Lawless, Don McLeish and
Cyntha Struthers)

iClicker You must bring your own device to class, No

either a smartphone or laptop and use
either iClicker Student Mobile App or
Student Web to participate. Physical
clicker remotes will not be supported. You
must register through the course website
on Learn (Content -> iClicker
Registration) so that your clicker grades
can be assigned to you. Answering clicker
questions for another student is an
academic offence.

There is no required textbook. We recommend the following End-of-chapter problems from the course notes to prepare for the
course assessments:

Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Chapter 10

1.1-1.4 2.1-2.8 3.1-3.14, 4.1-4.22 5.1-5.9, 7.1-7.15 8.1-8.21 9.1-9.34 10.1-10.19

3.17-3.18 5.11-5.24,
5.27-5.29

STUDENT ASSESSMENT

Scheme A
Component Value

4 Tutorial Assignments 2% each

2 Tutorial Tests 6% each

Best Midterm 20%

Worst Midterm 10%

Final Exam 50%

BONUS: iClicker Participation 2% (1% for answering and 1% for correctness)

- MISSED TUTORIAL ASSIGNMENT, TEST or MIDTERM: please contact [email protected] to request an accommodation.
- MISSED iCLICKER: everyone's clicker mark will be divided by 0.75 to allow for absences. No further accommodation will be
provided for any reason.
- MISSED FINAL EXAM: The Mathematics Faculty INC Grade Policy applies.

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Tutorial Assignments

• Assignment 1: During tutorial on Friday, Sep 15

• Assignment 2: During tutorial on Friday, Oct 20
• Assignment 3: During tutorial on Friday, Nov 3
• Assignment 4: During tutorial on Friday, Nov 24

The Tutorial Assignments will be open book and you may work with others. TAs will be present to help. You must attend the
tutorial section you are registered in!

Tutorial Tests

• Tutorial Test 1: During tutorial on Friday, Sep 22

• Tutorial Test 2: During tutorial on Friday, Oct 27

You must attend the tutorial section you are registered in! You must bring your Watcard (or another photo id)
and a non-programmable and non-graphing calculator. Information regarding the examination (e.g. material covered) will
be posted on the course website on Learn approximately one week before the assessment.

Midterms

• Midterm 1: Tuesday, Oct 3, 4:30-5:50 pm (rooms and seats TBA on Odyssey (https://odyssey.uwaterloo.ca/teaching/schedule) )
• Midterm 2: Thursday, Nov 16, 4:30-5:50 pm (rooms and seats TBA on Odyssey (https://odyssey.uwaterloo.ca/teaching/schedule)
)

You must bring your Watcard (or another photo id) and a non-programmable and non-graphing calculator.
Information regarding the examination (e.g. material covered) will be posted on the course website on Learn approximately one
week before the assessment.

Final Exam

A 2.5 hour final cumulative examination will be held during the final exam period. The date and location of the final exam will be
announced by the registrar later in the term. You must bring your Watcard (or another photo id) and a non-
programmable and non-graphing calculator. Information regarding the examination (e.g. material covered) will be posted on
the course website on Learn approximately one week before the assessment.

Remark Requests

Requests may be sent to Divya ([email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) ) within 7 days of a marked assessment
being returned to you. The following information is required: 1. First and Last Name, 2. Course Code (i.e. STAT 230), 3. Assessment
Name, 4. Question for Remark, 5. Reason for Remark. Your mark may increase or decrease on appeals.

ASSIGNMENT SCREENING
No assignment screening will be used in this course.

ADMINISTRATIVE POLICY

Cancellation of In-Person Classes: In the event of a short or long-term cancellation of in-person classes (e.g. due to the
pandemic), we intend for the following changes to apply: 1. In-person lectures will be replaced with weekly videos which may not be
synchronous. 3. Tutorial Assignments will be replaced with Mobius quizzes, to be completed within the tutorial day. 2. Tests and
Exams will take place according to the course schedule, but will be completed online and synchronously rather than in-person. Some
components may need to be submitted via Crowdmark. 4. The weighting scheme will remain the same. The instructors reserve the
right to modify these plans with due and fair notice to students if unforeseen circumstances prevent the implementation of this plan.

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2023/9/6 12:49 Course Outline - Probability
Academic Advising: If you find yourself doing poorly in a STAT course, talk with an advisor about your options: Academic
Advising | Statistics and Actuarial Science | University of Waterloo (uwaterloo.ca) (https://uwaterloo.ca/statistics-and-actuarial-
science/current-undergraduate-students/academic-advising)

UNIVERSITY POLICY
Academic integrity: In order to maintain a culture of academic integrity, members of the University of Waterloo community are
expected to promote honesty, trust, fairness, respect and responsibility. [Check the Office of Academic Integrity
(https://uwaterloo.ca/academic-integrity/) for more information.]

Grievance: A student who believes that a decision affecting some aspect of their university life has been unfair or unreasonable
may have grounds for initiating a grievance. Read Policy 70, Student Petitions and Grievances, Section 4
(https://uwaterloo.ca/secretariat/policies-procedures-guidelines/policy-70) . When in doubt, please be certain to contact the
department’s administrative assistant who will provide further assistance.

Discipline: A student is expected to know what constitutes academic integrity to avoid committing an academic offence, and to
take responsibility for their actions. [Check the Office of Academic Integrity (https://uwaterloo.ca/academic-integrity/) for more
information.] A student who is unsure whether an action constitutes an offence, or who needs help in learning how to avoid offences
(e.g., plagiarism, cheating) or about “rules” for group work/collaboration should seek guidance from the course instructor, academic
advisor, or the undergraduate associate dean. For information on categories of offences and types of penalties, students should refer
to Policy 71, Student Discipline (https://uwaterloo.ca/secretariat/policies-procedures-guidelines/policy-71) . For typical penalties,
check Guidelines for the Assessment of Penalties (https://uwaterloo.ca/secretariat/guidelines/guidelines-assessment-penalties) .

Appeals: A decision made or penalty imposed under Policy 70, Student Petitions and Grievances
(https://uwaterloo.ca/secretariat/policies-procedures-guidelines/policy-70) (other than a petition) or Policy 71, Student Discipline
(https://uwaterloo.ca/secretariat/policies-procedures-guidelines/policy-71) may be appealed if there is a ground. A student who
believes they have a ground for an appeal should refer to Policy 72, Student Appeals (https://uwaterloo.ca/secretariat/policies-
procedures-guidelines/policy-72) .

Note for students with disabilities: AccessAbility Services (https://uwaterloo.ca/accessability-services/) , located in Needles
Hall, Room 1401, collaborates with all academic departments to arrange appropriate accommodations for students with disabilities
without compromising the academic integrity of the curriculum. If you require academic accommodations to lessen the impact of
your disability, please register with AccessAbility Services at the beginning of each academic term.

Turnitin.com: Text matching software (Turnitin®) may be used to screen assignments in this course. Turnitin® is used to verify
that all materials and sources in assignments are documented. Students' submissions are stored on a U.S. server, therefore students
must be given an alternative (e.g., scaffolded assignment or annotated bibliography), if they are concerned about their privacy
and/or security. Students will be given due notice, in the first week of the term and/or at the time assignment details are provided,
about arrangements and alternatives for the use of Turnitin in this course.

It is the responsibility of the student to notify the instructor if they, in the first week of term or at the time assignment details are
provided, wish to submit alternate assignment.

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