BCS301 - Module 1 (QB)
BCS301 - Module 1 (QB)
BCS301 - Module 1
Probability distributions
Syllabus:
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1.1 Discrete probability distribution
❖ A random experiment is a process that leads to a single outcome that can’t be predicted
with certainty. Example: Tossing coin, playing cricket.
❖ In a random experiment, if a real variable is associated with every outcome then it is called
a random variable (or) stochastic variable.
Example: Suppose a coin is tossed twice. Now, 1 is associated with head and 0 is associated
with tail. 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
Outcomes 𝐻𝐻 𝐻𝑇 𝑇𝐻 𝑇𝑇
Random variable (X) 2 1 1 0
❖ If a random variable takes any discrete value (nonnegative integer) then it is called discrete
random variable.
Example: Number of students in a class, Number of leaves in a tree.
❖ For each value of 𝑥𝑖 of a discrete random variable 𝑋, we assign a real number 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) such
that ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) = 1 then
𝑋 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥3 … 𝑥𝑛
𝑃(𝑋) 𝑃(𝑥1 ) 𝑃(𝑥2 ) 𝑃(𝑥3 ) … 𝑃(𝑥𝑛 )
is called a discrete probability distribution of X.
❖ The discrete function 𝐹(𝑥) defined by 𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∑𝑥𝑖=1 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) is called
cumulative distribution function or distribution function.
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1. Find the mean and standard deviation for the following probability distribution:
𝑥𝑖 -5 -4 1 2
𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) 1/4 1/8 1/2 1/8
2. Find the mean and standard deviation for the following probability distribution:
𝑥𝑖 1 3 4 5
𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3
3. The probability density function P(x) of a variate x is given by the following table:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(x) k 3k 5k 7k 9k 11k 13k
(i) For what value of k, does this represent a valid probability distribution.
(ii) Find 𝑝(𝑥 < 4), 𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 5) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝(3 < 𝑥 ≤ 6)
(iii) Determine the minimum value of k so that 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) ≥ 0.3
4. The probability distribution of a finite random variable is given by
𝑥𝑖 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
p(𝑥𝑖 ) 0.1 k 0.2 2k 0.3 k
(i) Determine the value of k and find the mean and standard deviation.
(ii) Find 𝑝(𝑥 < 1), 𝑝(−1 < 𝑥 ≤ 2) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝(𝑥 > −1)
5. A random variable X has the following probability function:
𝑥𝑖 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(𝑥𝑖 ) 0 𝑘 2𝑘 2𝑘 3𝑘 𝑘 2 2𝑘 2 7𝑘 2 + 𝑘
(i) Find the value of 𝑘. (ii) Evaluate 𝑃(𝑋 < 6), 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 6) (iii) 𝑃(0 < 𝑥 < 5).
6. A fair coin is tossed 3 times. Let X denote the number of heads showing up. Find the
distribution of X. Also find its mean, variance and SD.
𝑥 0 1 2 3
𝑝(𝑥) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
3
𝑘𝑥 2 , 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3
7. A random variable x has the density function 𝑃(𝑋) = { evaluate k. Also
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
find 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1), 𝑃(1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2), 𝑃(𝑋 > 1) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝑋 > 2)
8. A box contains 12 items of which 4 are defectives. A sample of 3 items is selected from
the box. Let X denote the number of defective items in the sample. Find the probability
distribution of X. Determine the mean and Standard deviation.
9. A die is tossed thrice. A success is getting 1 or 6 on a toss. Find mean and variance of the
number of successes.
10. Four coins are tossed. Find the expectation of the number of heads.
❖ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 (𝑜𝑟) 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1.
❖ The probability density function is said to follow binomial distribution if 𝑃(𝑥) satisfies the
condition 𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 . Where 𝑝 is the probability of success and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 is the
probability of failure.
x is at least 2 x is at most 2
❖
𝑥≥2 𝑥≤2
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1. Find mean and standard deviation of Binomial distribution.
2. Determine the Binomial distribution for which mean is twice the variance and the sum of
mean and variance is 3. Also find 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 3).
3. Mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution are 2 and 2/√3 respectively.
Find the corresponding probability density function.
4. In 256 sets of 12 tosses of a coin, in how many cases one can expect 8 heads and 4 tails?
5. A die is tossed thrice. A success is ‘𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 1 𝑜𝑟 6’ on a toss. Find the mean and variance
of the number of successes.
6. A die is thrown 5 times. If getting an odd number is a success, find the probability of
getting at least 4 successes.
7. If the probability that a new-born child is a male is 0.6, find the probability that in a
family of 5 children there are exactly 3 boys.
8. The probability that a pen manufactured by a company will be defective is 0.1. If 12 such
pens are selected, find the probability that (i) exactly 2 will be defective (ii) at least 2 will
be defective (iii) none will be defective.
9. The number of telephone lines busy at an instant of time is a binomial variate with
probability 0.2. If at an instant 10 lines are chosen at random, what is the probability that
(i) no line is busy? (ii) 5 lines are busy? (iii) at least one line is busy? (iv) at most 2 lines
are busy? (v) all lines are busy?
10. In a large number of parts manufactured by a machine, the mean number of defectives in
a sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such samples, how many would be expected to contain
at least 3 defective parts?
11. Fit a binomial distribution to the following data:
𝑥𝑖 0 1 2 3 4 5
𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) 2 14 20 34 22 8
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1.3 Poisson distribution
❖ A probability distribution which satisfies the probability density function
𝑚𝑥
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑒 −𝑚 is called Poisson distribution.
𝑥!
Problems:
1. Find the mean and Standard deviation of Poisson distribution.
2. The probabilities of a Poisson variate taking the values 3 and 4 are equal. Calculate the
probabilities of the variate taking the values 0 and 1. Also find the mean and variance of
the Poisson distribution.
3. X is a Poisson variate and it is found that the probability that 𝑥 = 2 is two third of the
probability that 𝑥 = 1. Find the probability that 𝑥 = 0 and the probability that 𝑥 = 1.
What is the probability that 𝑥 exceeds 3?
4. 2% of the fuses manufactured by a firm are found to be defective. Find the probability
that the box containing 200 fuses contains (i) no defective fuse (ii) 3 or more defective
fuses.
5. A certain screw manufacturing machine produces on an average of 2 defective screws out
of 100 and packs them in boxes of 500. Find the probability that a box contains (i) 3
defective (ii) at least one defective (iii) 15 defective screws.
6. If the probability of a bad reaction from a certain injection is 0.001. Determine the chance
that out of 2000 individuals more than 2 will get a bad reaction.
7. In a certain factory turning out razor blades there is a small probability of 1/500 for any
blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Use Poisson distribution
to calculate the approximate number of packets containing (i) no defective, (ii) one
defective, and (iii) two defective blades in a consignment of 10000 packets.
8. Alpha particles are emitted by a radioactive source at an average rate of 5 in a 20
minutes’ interval. Using Poisson distribution, find the probability that there will be (i)
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exactly two emissions, and (ii) at least two emissions, in a randomly chosen 20 minutes’
interval.
9. A car hire firm has two cars which it hire out day by day. The number of demand for a car
on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5, Calculate the proportion
of days (i) on which there is no demand (ii) On which demand is refused.
10. The probability that a news reader commits no mistake in reading the news is 1/𝑒 3 . Find
the probability that on a particular news broadcast he commits (i) Only 2 mistakes (ii)
More than 3 mistakes (iii) At most 3 mistakes.
11. Fit a Poisson distribution for the data
𝑥: 0 1 2 3 4
𝑓: 46 38 22 9 1
12. Fit a Poisson distribution to the set of observations:
𝑥: 0 1 2 3 4
𝑓: 122 60 15 2 1
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3. The probability density function of a continuous random variable x is
𝑘𝑥, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑥 < 2
2𝑘, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 2 ≤ 𝑥 < 4
𝑝(𝑥) = { find k and then determine the mean of x.
6𝑘 − 𝑘𝑥, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 4 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 6
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
4. The frequency distribution of a measurable characteristic varying between 0 and 2 is as
𝑥3, 0≤𝑥≤1
𝑓(𝑥) = { Calculate mean and standard deviation.
(2 − 𝑥)2 , 1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2
5. The probability density function of a continuous random variable x is
𝑘𝑥(1 − 𝑥)𝑒 𝑥 , 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1
𝑝(𝑥) = { . Find the value of k and evaluate mean and standard
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
deviation of the distribution.
6. For the probability distribution given by the cumulative distribution function
0, 𝑡>0
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𝐹(𝑡) = {𝑡 , 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 1 Find the probability density function.
1, 𝑡>1
Also evaluate (i) 𝑝(0.5 < 𝑥 < 0.75) (ii) 𝑝(𝑥 ≤ 0.5) (iii) 𝑝(𝑥 > 0.75)
1
, 𝑥1 < 𝑥 < 𝑥2
7. A function is defined as 𝑓(𝑥) = { 𝑘 Find the cumulative distribution of
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
the variate 𝑥 when 𝑘 satisfies the requirements for 𝑓(𝑥) to be a density function.
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(𝑥 + 1), −1 < 𝑥 < 1
8. 𝑓(𝑥) = {2 represents the density of a r.v X, Find 𝐸(𝑥), 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑥).
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
9. If a random variable x has the probability density function
2𝑒 −2𝑥 , 𝑥>0
𝑓(𝑥) = { find 𝑝(1 < 𝑥 < 3)𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝(𝑥 > 0.5). Also find the variance.
0, 𝑥≤0
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❖ The total area is 1 and the area on either side of is 0.5
❖ How to find the area under the standard normal curve using calculator?
In 𝑚𝑠, go to SD, press 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑓𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑛 In es, go to stat, 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑓𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑛
𝑃(𝑎) = 𝐴(−∞, 𝑎), 𝑄(𝑎) = 𝐴(0, 𝑎), 𝑅(𝑎) = 𝐴(𝑎, ∞)
Pictorial representation:
𝑝(𝑧 < −1) = 𝑃(−1) = 0.1587 𝑝(𝑧 > 1) = 𝑅(1) = 0.1587 𝑝(0 < 𝑧 < 1) = 𝑄(1) = 0.3413
1. For the standard normal distribution of a random variable z evaluate the following:
(i) 𝑃(0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 1.45) (ii) 𝑃(−2.60 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0) (iii)𝑃(−3.40 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 2.1) (iv)
𝑃(1.25 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 2.1) (v) 𝑃(−2.55 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ −0.8) (vi) 𝑃(𝑧 ≥ 1.7)
(vii) 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ −3.35) (viii) 𝑃(|𝑧| ≤ 1.85)
2. For the normal distribution with mean 2 and standard deviation 4 evaluate the following
probabilities: (i) 𝑃(−6 < 𝑥 < 3) (ii) 𝑃(1 < 𝑥 < 5) (iii) 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 5) (iv) 𝑃(|𝑥| < 4) (v)
𝑃(|𝑥| > 3) (vi) 𝑃(|𝑥 − 2| > 1)
3. If X is a normal variate with mean 30 and S.D 5, find the probabilities that
(i) 26 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 40 (ii) |𝑋 − 30| > 5.
4. The mean and standard deviation of the marks obtained by 1000 students in an examination
are respectively 34.4 and 16.5. Assuming the normality of the distribution find the approximate
number of students expected to obtain the marks between 30 and 60.
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5. The mean weight of 500 students at a certain school is 50 kgs and the standard deviation is 6
kgs. Assuming that the weights are normally distributed, find the expected number of
students weighing between (i)between 40 and 50 kgs (ii) more than 60 kgs.
6. The life of a certain electric lamps is normally distributed with mean of 2040 hours and
standard deviation 60 hours. In a consignment of 2000 lamps, find how many would be
expected to burn for (i) more than 2150 hours (ii) less than 1950 hours and (iii) between 1920
hours and 2160 hours.
7. In a normal distribution, 31% of the items are under 45 and 8% are over 64. Find the mean
and standard deviation.
8. A certain number of articles manufactured in one batch were classified in to three categories
according to a particular characteristic, being less than 50, between 50 and 60 and greater than
60. If this characteristic is known to be normally distributed, determine the mean and standard
deviation of this batch if 60%, 35% and 5% were found in these categories.
9. The IQ of students in a certain college is assumed to be normally distributed with mean 70 and
variance 25. If two students are selected at random, find the probability that (i) both of them
(ii) at least one of them have IQ between 72 and 80.
10. In a normal distribution 7% are under 35 and 89% are under 60. Find the mean and standard
deviation.
11. A sample of 100 dry battery cells produced by a certain company was tested for their lengths
of life, and the test yielded the following data. Mean life = 12 hours. Standard deviation = 3
hours. Using normal distribution, find how many cells are expected to have their life lengths
(i) greater than 15 hours, (ii) between 10 and 14 hours, and (iii) less than 6 hours.
12. In an examination taken by 500 candidates, the average and S.D. of marks obtained are 40%
and 10% respectively. Assuming normal distribution, find (i) how many have scored above
60% (ii) how many will pass if 50% is fixed as the minimum marks for passing (iii) how many
will pass if 40% is fixed as the minimum marks for passing and (iv) what should be the
minimum percentage of marks for passing so that 350 candidates pass.
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2. In a certain town the duration of a shower is exponentially distributed with mean 5 minutes.
What is the probability that a shower will last for (i) less than 10 minutes (ii) 10 minutes or
more?
3. The length of telephone conversation in a booth has been an exponential distribution and
found on an average to be 3 minutes. Find the probability that a random call made from this
booth (i) Ends less than 3 minutes (ii) between 3 and 5 minutes.
4. The sales per day for a shop is exponentially distributed with the average sale amounting
to ₹100 and net profit is 8%. Find the probability that the net profit exceeds ₹30 on two
consecutive days.
5. The average daily turnout of a departmental store is ₹10,000 and the net profit is 8%. If the
turnout has an exponential distribution, find the probability that the net profit will exceed
₹3000 each on two consecutive days chosen at random.
6. At a certain city bus stop, three buses arrive per hour on an average. Assuming that the time
between successive arrivals is exponentially distributed, find the probability that the time
between the arrival of successive buses is (i) less than 10 minutes (ii) at least 30 minutes.
7. After the appointment of a new sales manager, the sales in a two-wheeler show-
room is exponentially distributed with mean equal to 4. If two days are selected at
random, what is the probability that (i) on both days the sales is over 5 units, (ii) the
sales is over 5 units on at least one of the two days?
8. The daily turnover in a medical shop is exponentially distributed with ₹6000 as the
average with a net profit of 8%. Find the probability that the net profit exceeds ₹500
on a randomly chosen day.
9. If x is an exponential variate with mean 5 evaluate
(i) 𝑃(0 < 𝑥 < 1), (ii)𝑃(−∞ < 𝑥 < 10) and (iii)𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 0 𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ≥ 1)
10. The life a T.V. tube manufactured by a company is known to have a mean of 200
months. Assuming that the life has an exponential distribution, find the probability
that the life of a tube manufactured by the company is (i) less than 200 months, (ii)
between 100 and 300 months.
11. If the life time of a certain type of electric bulbs is distributed as an exponential
variate with mean of 100 hours, what is the probability that a bulb will last for more
than 1500 hours? If two bulbs are selected at random, find the probability that (i)
both the bulbs, (ii) at least one bulb will last for more than 1500 hours.
12. In a certain town, the duration of a shower is exponentially distributed with mean
equal to 5 minutes. What is the probability that (i) a shower will last for at least 2
minutes more, given that it has already lasted for 5 minutes, (ii) a shower will last
for not more than 6 minutes more if it has already lasted for 3 minutes.
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