NAME Class

PROBABILITY
1 In summer the probability of a wet day is 0.25.
On a wet day, the probability of wind is 0.2. On
a dry day, the probability of wind is 0.4. You
may assume that the weather each day is
independent of the weather the day before.
(a) Copy and complete the tree diagram below.

[3
]
(b) When it is wet and windy, concerts have to
be postponed until the next day.
Find the probability that Monday's concert
(i) has to be postponed,
[2]
(ii) takes place on Tuesday.
[3]
(c) Sailing boats can only sail on a windy day.
Find .the probability that they cannot sail
on Monday.
[3]
(d)On a dry day with no wind, the probability
that the temperature is more than 30° C is
0.9.
On a wet or windy day this will not happen.
Find
(i) the probability that the temperature is
more than 30° C on Monday,
[2] [2]
 (ii) the probability that on Monday, Tuesday
and Wednesday the temperature is more
than 30° C.
2 Doctors use a test to find who has a certain
illness. The probability of a positive test result
is 0.20.
However 15% of those with positive test results
do not have the illness; 5% of those with
negative test results do have the illness.
(This means that these people are given an
incorrect test result.)
(a) Copy and complete the tree diagram below.

[3
]

(b) Find the probability that a person chosen at

random
(i) has a positive test result and has the
illness,
(ii) has the illness,
[2][2]
(iii)is given an incorrect test result.
[3]
(c) In a certain town, 10 000 people, chosen at
random, are given this test. Estimate how
many of these people will
(i) be told they have the illness,
[1]
 (ii)actually have the illness.
[2]
3 Paula and Tarek take part in a quiz. The
probability that Paula thinks she knows the
answer to any question is 0.6. If Paula thinks
she knows, the probability that she is correct is
0.9. Otherwise she guesses and the probability
that she is correct is 0.2.
(a) Copy and complete the tree diagram.

[3]
(b) Find the probability that Paula
(i) thinks she knows the answer and is
correct, [1]
(ii) gets the correct answer.
[2]
(c) The probability that Tarek thinks he knows
the answer to any question is 0.55. If Tarek
thinks he knows, he is always correct.
Otherwise he guesses and the probability
that he is correct is 0.2.
(i) Draw a tree diagram for Tarek. Write all
the probabilities on your diagram.
[3]
(ii) Find the probability that Tarek gets the
correct answer.
[2]
(d) There are 100 questions in the quiz.
 Estimate the number of correct answers
given by
(i) Paula, (ii) Tarek.
[1] [1]
4 (a) One letter from the name ALEAYNDRZA is
chosen at random.What is the probability
that it is the letter A?
(b) The probability that it will rain in the city of
Alexandria tomorrow is 0.01, What is the
probability that it will not rain in Alexandria
tomorrow?
5 Give your answers to this question as fractions.
Nine cards are numbered 10 to 18. One card is
chosen at random. Find the probability that the
number on the card is (a) even,
(b) prime,
(c) not a multiple of 6.
6 The probability that the school’s junior team
wins is 0.45 and the probability that it loses is
0.35. What is the probability of a draw?
7 A whole number is picked at random from the
numbers 1 to 200, inclusive.
(a) What is the probability that it is more than
44?
Give your answer as
(i) a fraction in its lowest terms, (ii) a
decimal.
(b) What is the probability that the number is
at least 180?
8 Alex, Bernice, Christelle, Divya, Elisa and
Fernanda play a game. They all have an equal
chance of winning.
(a) What is the probability that Alex does not
win?
(b) Divya wins the first game and then drops
out. The others continue playing. What is
 the probability that Elisa wins the second
game?
9 Susan writes the letters of her name on five
cards.
One of the five cards is chosen at random. Find
the probability that the letter on the card is (a)
S, (b) E.
10 A bag of 30 sweets contains 8 chocolates, 13
nougats and 9 toffees. A sweet is selected at
random.
What is the probability that it is a toffee?
11 Aminata has a bag containing 35 beads.
The beads are either blue, yellow or red. One
bead is chosen at random. The probability of
choosing a blue bead is 2/7 and the
probability of choosing a yellow bead is 3/5.
Calculate
(a) the number of blue beads in the bag,
(b) the probability of choosing a red bead.
12 Rooms in a hotel are numbered from 1 to 19.
Rooms are allocated at random as guests
arrive.
(a) What is the probability that the first guest
to arrive is given a room which is a prime
number? (1 is not a prime number.)
(b) The first guest to arrive is given a room
which is a prime number.
What is the probability that the second
guest to arrive is given a room which is a
prime number?
13 (a) A bowl of fruit contains 3 apples, 4
bananas, 2 pears and 1 orange.
Aminata chooses one piece of fruit at
random. What is the probability that she
chooses
 (i) a banana, (ii)
a mango?
(b) The probability that it will rain in Congo
DR on 1st September is 5/12.
State the probability that it will not rain in
Switzerland on 1st September.
14 Akaliza chooses a number from 99, 107,
211,478 & 481.
Find the probability that the number is
(a) odd, (b) greater than 400, (c) a
multiple of 5.