Demand data

UoM: KG 2017
SKU Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
A 9,433 3,038 3,901 3,752 2,354 2,851 2,401 3,106 4,070 6,686 4,474
B 450 400 300 250 300 500 550 600 700 650 600
C 200 500 700 - - - 300 350 400 - -

Question
1. Do the sales forecast till end 2020 for each SKU
2. Choose method of forecasting by your self and explain why you choose it
3. You can put assumption which you need for calculation
4. Visualize by chart and interpration
5. For August 2019 demand of SKU A, let break down the forecast by channel, by location and by SKU. You can ask Teacher for data you need or your can p

Chart Title
10,000
9,000
Online 8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
May

Nov
Jan
Feb

Jun

Sep
Mar
Apr

Dec
43117
43148
43176
43207
43237
43268
43298
43329
43360
43390
Oct
Jul
Aug

2017 2018

A B C

SKU B
YEAR MONTH DEMAND3 - MONTFORECAST
2017 1 450 Jan Feb Mar
2 400 2017 9,433 3,038 3,901
3 300 2018 7,832 4,601 5,901
4 250 2019 8,633 3,820 4,901
5 300

SEASONA
6 500 L INDEX 1.862915 0.8242574986 1.0576478598
7 550 ASSUMP
8 600 UNIT 5467.917
9 700 D-2019 10186.26 4506.9713142 5783.1303602
10 650 A-2020 9,009 4,554 5,842
11 600
12 550 SI 1.730799 0.8748937524 1.1223545071
2018 1 450 ASSUMP
2 410 UNIT 511.84
3 330 D-2020 885.90 447.81 574.47
 4 250
5 330
6 550
7 580
8 660
9 750
10 700
11 630
12 590
2019 1 640 FORCASTING FOR SKU B
2 620
3 617 2500
4 626
5 621 2000
6 621
7 622
1500
8 621
9 622
10 622 1000
11 622
12 622 500
2020 1 622
2 622
0
3 622 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
4 622
5 622 Column A Column C
6 622
7 622
8 622
9 622
10 622
11 622
12 622

350
500
550
600
500
400
550
 2018
Dec Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18
4,849 7,832 4,601 5,901 4,162 3,530 2,962 3,700 4,500
550 450 410 330 250 330 550 580 660
- - 400 450 - - 350 300 -

Teacher for data you need or your can put assumption

43176
43207
43237
43268
43298
43329
43360
43390
43421
43451

2018

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

3,752 2,354 2,851 2,401 3,106 4,070 6,686 4,474 4,849
4,162 3,530 2,962 3,700 4,500 5,068 5,950 6,262 5,830
3,957 2,942 2,906 3,051 3,803 4,569 6,318 5,368 5,340
A fpr all

0.8539303369 0.6348908393 0.6272103219 0.65831 0.820696758 0.986 1.3634399466 1.158427609 1.1522772388

4669.2199215 3471.5302019 3429.5337724 3599.56 4487.5014813 5391.37 7455.1760081 6334.1856302 6300.5559188

4,416 3,007 3,196 3,650 4,494 5,230 6,703 6,298 6,065
A FOR ALL
0.8483095598 0.5775988491 0.6139581223 0.70118 0.863321658 1.00471 1.287674756 1.2099647366 1.1652372654

434.20 295.64 314.25 358.89 441.89 514.25 659.09 619.31 596.42

OR SKU B

52627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748

Column C
 1-Jan-19
NOW
2019
Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
5,068 5,950 6,262 5,830 10,186 4,507 5,783 4,669 3,472 3,430 3,600 4,488 5,391 7,455
750 700 630 590 640 620 617 626 621 621 622 621 622 622
- - 500 600 160 480 650 - - 70 300 280 320 -

Season? Yes Season Index

Qualitative Repeat cycle? Yes
Quantitative Trend Increased 18%

TOTAL
50,915
60,298
55,606
4,633.87

65615

65615
62,462
5,205.19

6,142.12
 2020
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
6,334 6,301 885.90 447.81 574.47 434.20 295.64 314.25 358.89 441.89 514.25 659.09 619.31
622 622 622 622 622 622 622 622 622 622 622 622 622
100 120 32 416 490 - - 294 300 56 64 - 420

Chart Title
12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

-
n r y l p v 7 6 7 8 0 1 2 1 2 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 1 2
Ja Ma Ma Ju Se No 311 317 323 329 336 342 348 354 360 366 372 378 384 390 396 402 409 415
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Row 5 Row 6 Row 7

Dec-20
596.42
622
504
Demand data

UoM: KG 2017
SKU Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
A 9,433 3,038 3,901 3,752 2,354 2,851 2,401 3,106 4,070 6,686

Question

1. Do forecast for this SKU which come from key components: baseline, seasonality, activities
- Seasonality: yes and you find out by yourself (Hint: be careful for long holiday)
Base on historical - Activities in the past: there was promotion in Q4 anunaly with actual acheivement of incremental 15-20%
sales data 2017 &
2018 - Baseline: find the way to calculate and explain why you do it
- Activities: there are some promotion in Q4 with experience ratio of incremental is 20%. You can predict the post lost by your self
- Loading: there is a loading stock (50% of a month volume) in January 2019, and net off 20% in Feb in 2019
From Jan 2019
onward - Top down % growth rate is 5%/year vs 2018

2. Visualize by chart and interpration by yourself

1
2
 2018
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
4,474 4,849 7,832 4,601 5,901 4,162 3,530 2,962 3,700 4,500 5,068 5,950

can predict the post lost by your self

 1-Jan-19
NOW
2019
Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
6,262 5,830
 2020
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20
Nov-20 Dec-20