SCI205/ENV244

Modeling the Environment

Lecture 4: Analyzing Causal Loop Diagrams
Constructing Good CLDs
Variable names should be noun or noun phrases
Constructing Good CLDs
Variable names must have a clear sense of direction
Constructing Good CLDs
Choose the right level of aggregation
 Constructing Good CLDs
Make the goals of negative loops explicit

+
Room
Coffee B temperature
Cooling Rate
Temperature
- -
Temperature
+ difference

+
Coffee B Cooling Rate
Temperature
-
Constructing Good CLDs
Make the goals of negative loops explicit

-
Population B Death Rate
+

Exceptions
Managing your workload

VS

Ant Grasshopper
Identifying key variables

Assignment Rate Work Completion Rate

(Tasks/Week) (Tasks/Week)

Assignment Backlog Grades

(Tasks) (0-100)

Workweek Energy Level

(Hours/Week) (0-100)
Reference
mode
Reference
mode
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work
backlog completion
rate

+
Work
pressure

Managing your workload

 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work
backlog completion
Calendar rate
time
+
Work
- - pressure
Time
remaining
+

Due date
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work +
backlog completion
Calendar rate
time
+
Work
- - pressure
Time
remaining
+

Due date B1

Midnight
oil

+
Work week
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work +
backlog completion
Calendar rate
time
+
B2
-
Cutting
Work corners

- - pressure
Time
remaining - Effort devoted
+
to assignments

Due date B1

Midnight
oil

+
Work week
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work +
backlog completion
Calendar rate +
time
+
B2
-
Cutting
Work corners

- - pressure
Time
remaining - Effort devoted Productivity
+
to assignments +
R1

Due date Burnout B1

Midnight
oil

Energy
level
-
delay

+
Work week
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work +
backlog completion
Calendar rate +
time
+
B2
-
Cutting
Work corners

- - pressure
Time
remaining - Effort devoted Productivity
+
to assignments +
-
B3 R1
Grades
Due date + Quality + Burnout B1
control
Quality of Midnight
oil
work +
Energy
level
-
delay

+
Work week
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work +
backlog completion
Calendar rate +
time
+
B2
-
Cutting
Work corners

- - pressure
Time
remaining - Effort devoted Productivity
+
to assignments +
-
B3 R1
Grades
Due date + Quality + Burnout B1
control
Quality of Midnight
oil
work +
Energy
R2
level
Too tired
-
to think
delay

+
Work week
 Assignment
rate + -
Assignment Work +
backlog completion
Calendar rate +
time
+
B2
-
Cutting
Work corners

- - pressure
Time
remaining - Effort devoted Productivity
+
to assignments +
B4 -
B3 R1
My hard disk
crashed Grades
Due date + Quality + Burnout B1
+ + control
Requests for Quality of Midnight
oil
extension work +
Energy
R2
level
Too tired
-
to think
delay

+
Work week
Other possible effects
• Desired Grade Point Average
• Dropping classes
• Drinking coffee
• Cheating on assignments
 Attendance and Participation
Class Attendance and Participation • Attendance – 5%
• 10% • Maximum of 4 unexcused absences.
• Starting from Lecture 5.
Quizzes • Survey participation – 2.5%
• 10% • In class polls
• Surveys circulated through emails
Assignments • Focus groups
• In class engagement – 2.5%
• 20%
• Earn a maximum of 1 point every 3 sessions
Projects (starting from Lecture 5)
• A meaningful engagement with the instructor
• 20% once, will earn the point.
Midterm Exam
• 20%

Final Exam
• 20%
Examining Policy Resistance: Traffic
Congestion
Open-loop view of Traffic Congestion

Congestion Build New

and Delay Roads
 Road
Construction
delay
+
Highway
capacity
-
Travel time
+

Traffic
volume
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
capacity extension congestion
- + -
Travel time Desired
+ Travel time

Traffic
volume
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
capacity extension congestion
- + -
Travel time Desired
+ Travel time

Traffic
volume Trips per
+ +
+ day

Average
trip length
Cars in
region
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
capacity extension congestion
- + -
Travel time Desired
+ Travel time
B2

Discretio - +
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
volume Trips per of driving
+ +
+ day
+

Average
trip length
Cars in
region
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
capacity extension congestion
- + -
Travel time Desired
+ Travel time
B2

Discretio - +
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
volume Trips per of driving
+ +
+ B3
day
+
Extra miles

Average +
trip length
Cars in
region
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
capacity extension congestion
- + -
Travel time Desired
+ Travel time
B2

Discretio - +
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
volume Trips per of driving
+ +
+ B3
day
+
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4
activity of Take the Average +
region bus? trip length -
Public transit
+ Cars in
region ridership
+
Cars per -
person
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
capacity extension congestion
- + -
Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - +
B5
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
delay volume Trips per of driving
Move to
suburbs
+ +
+ + B3
day
+
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4
activity of Take the Average +
region bus? trip length -
Public transit
+ Cars in
region ridership
+
Cars per -
person
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - +
B5
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
delay volume Trips per of driving
Move to
suburbs
+ +
+ + B3
day
+
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4
activity of Take the Average +
region bus? trip length -
Public transit
+ Cars in
region ridership
+
Cars per -
person
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - +
B5
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
delay volume Trips per of driving
Move to + +
+
suburbs
+ day +
B3 +
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4
activity of Take the Average +
region bus? trip length -
Public transit
+ Cars in Public
+
region ridership
+ transit fare
Cars per - Public
person B6
transit
Fare
+ increase deficit
Public -
transit
+
revenue
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - +
B5
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
delay volume Trips per of driving
Move to + +
+
suburbs
+ day +
B3 +
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4
activity of Take the Average +
region bus? trip length -
Public transit
+ Cars in Public
+
region ridership
+ transit fare
Cars per - R2

Public
person Choke
ridership B6
transit
Fare
+ increase deficit
Public -
transit
+
revenue
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - +
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
B5
volume of driving
-
delay Move to + + Trips per
suburbs + Adequacy of
+ + day
+
B3 public transit +
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4 R3 Public
activity of Take the Average + Route transit
region bus? trip length - expansion
network
Public transit -
+ Cars in Public
+
region ridership
+ transit fare
Cars per - R2

Public
person Choke
ridership B6
transit
Fare
+ increase deficit
Public -
transit
+
revenue
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - +
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
B5
volume of driving
-
delay Move to + + Trips per
suburbs + Adequacy of
+ + day
+
B3 public transit +
Population
Extra miles
and economic B4 R3 Public
activity of Take the Average + Route transit
region bus? trip length - expansion
network
Public transit -
+ Cars in Public
+
region ridership delay +
+ transit fare B7
Public
Cars per - R2

Public
Cost
cutting transit
person Choke
B6
ridership
transit + cost
Fare
+ increase deficit
Public -
transit
+
revenue
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
delay
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - + B8
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
B5
volume of driving
- Capacity
delay Move to + + Trips per expansion
suburbs + Adequacy of
+ + day
+
B3 public transit +
Population
and economic B4
Extra miles
R3 Public
-
activity of Take the Average + Route transit
region bus? trip length - expansion
network
Public transit -
+ Cars in Public
+
region ridership delay +
+ transit fare B7
Public
Cars per - R2

Public
Cost
cutting transit
person Choke
B6
ridership
transit + cost
Fare
+ increase deficit
Public -
transit
+
revenue
 Road +
Construction
delay
+ B1
Highway Capacity
Pressure to reduce
R1
capacity extension congestion
Open the
farmlands - + -
+ Travel time Desired
Size of region - + Travel time
delay
B2
within desired
travel time
Discretio - + B8
Traffic nary trips
Attractiveness
B5
volume of driving
- Capacity
delay Move to + + Trips per expansion
suburbs + Adequacy of
+ + day
+
B3 public transit +
Population
and economic
Extra miles - -
B4 R3 Public
activity of Take the Average + Route transit
region bus? trip length - expansion
network
Public transit -
+ Cars in Public
+
region ridership delay +
+ transit fare B7
Public
Cars per - R2

Public
Cost
cutting transit
person Choke
B6
ridership
transit + cost
Fare
R4 + increase deficit
Can’t get there
Public -
on the bus transit
+
revenue
Policy Resistance

Road generated traffic: Elasticity of traffic volume to

capacity increase in US observed to be 0.9 in 5 years
Policy Analysis

• The impact of technology?

• The source of policy resistance?

Compensating feedback
Thank You