NAME: TEACHER:

2
RVS 2024

Level 2 Mathematics and Statistics

AS 91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems

Credits: 4
You should answer ALL questions in this booklet.

Show ALL working for ALL questions.

If you need more space for any answer, use the blank pages provided and carefully number the question.

YOU MUST HAND THIS BOOKLET TO THE SUPERVISOR AT THE END OF THE ASSESSMENT.

Achievement Achievement with Merit Achievement with Excellence

Apply probability methods in Apply probability methods, Apply probability methods, using
solving problems. using relational thinking, in extended abstract thinking, in solving
solving problems problems.

SCORE

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 Assessor’s
You are advised to spend 60 minutes answering the questions in this booklet. only

Eggs!
QUESTION ONE

Egg grades and sizes vary from 40-80 grams per egg.
These eggs are sold by grade (4, 5, 6, 7, 8), based on
the weight for each egg which must be equal or
exceed the minimum weight for the grade which is set
by the Egg Producers Federation of New Zealand
Code of Practice, 2002.
The minimum weights are:
● Jumbo (size 8): 68g
● Large (size 7): 62g
● Standard (size 6): 53g
● Medium (size 5): 44g
● Pullet (size 4): 35g
● Mixed grade – a selection of different sized eggs (sizes 4-8).
Also, the genes of the chicken determine the shell colour. White-feathered chickens with white
earlobes lay white eggs. Red or brown-feathered chickens with red earlobes lay brown eggs.

(a) Data collection is carried out at a New Zealand Chicken farm on a daily basis. This data
provided information about the sizes (W) and colour of the egg shells.
The information is illustrated in the table that is partially completed below.

White Brown Total

Jumbo (size 8): W > 68g 195 145 340
Large (size 7): 62g ≤ W <
308 207 515
68g
Standard (size 6): 53g ≤ W
452 345 797
< 62g
Medium (size 5): 44g ≤ W <
274 144 418
53g
Pullet (size 4): 35g ≤ W <
156 47 203
44g
Total 1385 888 2273

(i) What proportion of the eggs were white shelled?

(ii) What proportion of eggs were large (size7)?

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(iii) Given that an egg was brown shelled, what is the probability that it was categorised as
size 6?

(iv) A claim was made that Pullet eggs are one and a half times more likely to be white
shelled than Standard eggs.
Can this claim be justified statistically?

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(b)

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(b) An egg marketing company buys its eggs from farm A and farm B. only
1
Currently Farm A supplies of the eggs to the company and the rest of the company’s eggs come
3
from farm B. Both farms supply white and brown shelled eggs.
Each day, the eggs from both farms are taken to the company’s warehouse.
3 1
Assume that of all eggs from farm A have white egg shells and of all eggs from farm B have
5 5
white egg shells.

(i) An egg is selected at random from all of the eggs at the warehouse.
Find the probability that it is a brown shelled egg?

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(ii) The egg marketing company wants to increase the number of brown eggs in their daily
collection, so that the probability when an egg is randomly selected from all the eggs
at the warehouse and that it is a brown shelled egg is to have a probability of 0.7.
Find, and interpret the proportion of eggs that is needed to be supplied from farm A.

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QUESTION TWO

(a) Data collected on another day from the egg farm finds that the egg weights can be modelled
by the Normal Distribution curve, with mean of 65.19g and a standard deviation 8.57g.
(i) Find the probability that a randomly selected egg will weigh between 62 and 68
grams, categorised as large (size 7) eggs.

(ii) Pullet (size 4) eggs weigh between 35g and 44g, this is the smallest sized eggs that
can be sold commercially in New Zealand.
What percentage of eggs would be rejected for commercial selling?

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(iii) In a daily production of 12 743 eggs from this egg farm, what number of eggs are
expected to be too small to be sold commercially for that day?

(iv) The egg farm has a target to have 20% of their eggs to be Jumbo (size 8), weighing
more than 68g, they want to keep the mean the same value, what will be the new
standard deviation.
Interpret what this new standard deviation means when comparing with the given
standard deviation.

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(b) Different aged hens are kept separate, were aged 25 weeks old, 51 weeks old and 72 weeks
old to compare the weight distributions of the eggs from the different age groups.
Assuming that the distributions of egg weights were normally distributed, if two eggs were
randomly selected, what is the probability that they both weighed more than 60g and the hen
was either 51 or 72 weeks old?
State any assumptions that you make.

Standard
Age of hen Mean egg
Deviation egg
in weeks weight (g)
weight (g)
25 55.02 3.80
51 62.20 5.51
72 63.29 5.76

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QUESTION THREE

On another farm that breed laying and uses the two breeds of hen, the white-feathered hens
with white earlobes that lay white eggs and the brown-feathered hens with red earlobes that lay
brown eggs.

(a) Table 1 below gives information about the breeding for the beginning of the 2019 season
from data collected in 2018.
It shows the proportion of hens that did not produce fertile eggs or produced fertile eggs
for each breed.

non- fertile eggs fertile eggs Total

white-feathered 0.37 0.35 072
brown-feathered
Total 0.54 1.00
Table 1.

(i) Complete the two-way table above.

(ii) Are the events being a white-feathered hen and laying non-fertile eggs independent
events?
Justify your answer.

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(iii) Table 2 below gives information about the breeding hen programme for the 2017
season. It shows the proportion of hens that either did not produce fertile eggs or
produced fertile eggs for each breed.

non- fertile eggs fertile eggs

white-feathered 0.65 0.35
brown-feathered 0.84 0.16
Table 2.

Table 3 shows the proportion of hens that were either culled or kept for the 2017
season. Reasons for a hen to be culled are for not producing fertile eggs regularly or
their age and health:

Non- Fertile eggs

fertile eggs
White-feathered culled (WC) 0.75 0.68
White-feathered kept (WK) 0.25 0.32
Brown-feathered culled (BC) 0.64 0.58
Brown-feathered kept (BK) 0.36 0.42
Table 3.

The ratio of white-feathered hens to brown-feathered hens at the beginning of the season
was approximately 4:3.
According to the data in tables 2 and 3, at the end of the 2016 season, what proportion of
the total breeding hens were brown-feathered hens that did not produce fertile eggs and
were culled?
The monetary value or the culled hens is $2.75
Write an expression for the expected monetary return on the culled hens?

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(b) The egg shell quality does not differ by breed of the hen, although younger chickens lay
eggs with harder shells. Brown-egg chickens tend to be larger and cost more to feed and
raise, so white eggs are more cost-efficient.

White Brown
Total
egg eggs
Jumbo (size 8): 68g 195 145 340
Large (size 7): 62g 308 207 515
Standard (size 6): 53g 452 345 797
Medium (size 5): 44g 274 144 418
Pullet (size 4): 35g 156 47 203
Total: 1385 888 2273
Average
(g) 57.12 58.88
Standard
deviation
(g) 9.32 6.55

Using the data and bar graphs provided from the daily data collection compare the
distributions that were obtained from the results.
In your answer, you should consider the shape, centre, and spread of both distributions and
provide numerical evidence.

Identify any assumptions that you make.

Write your answer on the next page.

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Assessment Schedule – 2019
Mathematics and Statistics: Apply probability methods in solving problems (91267)
Evidence Statement
Note: Decimal answers are given to 4 d.p. and answers will vary depending on whether the candidate uses
the ND tables or a graphing calculator.
Question Expected Coverage
Achievement (u) Merit (r) Excellence (t)
ONE
(a) (i) 1385 Probability correct
Prob(white) =
2273
(= 0.6903 or equivalent)
(a) (ii) 515 Probability correct
Prob(white or brown shelled) =
2273
(= 0.2266 or equivalent)
(a) (iii) Identifies 345 size 6 brown eggs Identifies the Conditional
correct probability correct
Recognises that the sample size is 888
345
Prob(size 6 egg given brown) =
888
(= 0.3888) or equivalent)
(a) (iv) 452 Either probability is Relative ratio found Claim refuted or
Prob(standard white eggs) = found accepted based on
797 the ratio
(= 0.56713 or equivalent) calculation
156
Prob(pullet white eggs) =
203
(= 0.76847 or equivalent)

156
203
Relative ratio = = 1.355
452
797
Comparing 1.5 with 1.355 the
claim cannot be made as rounding
the relative ratio to 1 d.p is 1.4 ≠
1.5
(b) (i) Evidence illustrated Probability found
via tree diagram for
probabilities to be
calculated

P(Brown eggs) =
❑ ❑
1 2 2 4 10 2
× + × = ¿ ¿= 0.6667
3 5 3 5 15 3
or equivalent)
(b) (ii) Let p = proportion of eggs from farm A. Equation set up Value of p is found Proportion is
2 4 OR interpreted in
p × + (1 - p) × = 0.7 a probability tree context
5 5 diagram evident for
1 an equation in p can
p = (= 0.25 or equivalent)
4 be formed

NZAMT 2019: AS91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems 3

 The egg marketing company needs to
buy 0.25 of their eggs from farm A to
have a 70% probability of an egg
randomly selected from all the eggs at
the warehouse.

NØ N1 N2 A3 A4 M5 M6 E7 E8
No response; A valid 1 of u 2 of u 3 of u 1 of r 2 of r 1 of t 2 of t
no relevant attempt at
evidence. one
question.

NZAMT 2019: AS91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems 3

 Questio
Expected Coverage Achievement (u) Merit (r) Excellence (t)
n TWO
(a) (i) Probability correct

P(62g ≤ weigh < 68g) =

0.2736
(a) (ii) Probability correct

P(weigh < 35g) = 0.0002135

(a) (iii) Expected number of eggs not for Expected value Expected number of
commercial sale calculated eggs is interpreted
= 12 743×0.0002135 = 2.7206 in context

Accept 2 or 3 eggs.
(a) (iv) P(X > 68) = 20%, σ = ?, μ = 65.19 Identifies as an Z-score New σ is interpreted
Using the STD ND inverse ND AND in context with the
(X > k) = 20% σ = 1, μ = 0 calculation is set up new σ found existing σ

Z-score – 0.8416

x−μ
Using Z = and solve for σ
σ
68−65.19
=0.8416
σ
σ = 3.3389g

This indicated that the range (spread)

of the egg weight is smaller with the
new σ, which means that the existing
statistics indicate that they are
exceeding the 15% egg size to be
Jumbo size.
(b) P(weight > 60g, 51 week old) = 0.6552 Either one of the Both probabilities Probability
P(weight > 60g, 72 week old) = 0.7161 probabilities is are found correctly calculated correctly
found correctly AND for the 2 randomly
Assume independent events as each assumed selected eggs
hen lays their own egg independent of independent events
the other hens on the farm. to have a probability
Assuming that the eggs are draw tree diagram drawn
without replacement and the OR
probability if it is done with All three
probabilities are
NZAMT 2019: AS91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems 3
 1 found correctly
replacement is negligible, i.e. ≈ AND
3 assumed
49 independent events
149 to multiply the
P(2 eggs both weigh > 60) individual
1 1 probabilities
= × P(51) × × P(51) together of weight
3 3 and selection
1 1
+ × P(51) × × P(72)
3 3
1 1
+ × P(72) × × P(51)
3 3
1 1
+ × P(72) × × P(72)
3 3
P(2 eggs selected both weigh > 60g)
1
= × 0.6552×[ 0.6552 + 0.7161]
9
1
+ × 0.7161×[0.6552 + 0.7161]
9
= 0.2089

Note: If using without replacement,

the solution will be a little smaller.

NØ N1 N2 A3 A4 M5 M6 E7 E8
No response; A valid 1 of u 2 of u 3 of u 1 of r 2 of r 1 of t 2 of t
no relevant attempt at
evidence. one
question.

NZAMT 2019: AS91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems 3

 Question
Expected Coverage Achievement (u) Merit (r) Excellence (t)
THREE
(a) (i) Table completed
non- fertile Total correctly
fertile eggs
eggs
white- 0.34 0.35 072
feathered
brown- 0.17 0.11 0.28
feathered
Total 0.51 0.46 1.00
(a) (ii) For independence P(A∩B) = P(A) × Probability rule for Claim refuted
P(B), i.e. independent events based on the
P(non-fertile and white feather) identified comparison of the
= P(non-fertile)× P(white feather) AND calculated
probability found if independent and
0.72 × 0.5 = 0.3672 events are independent that given are not
0.34 ≠ 0.3672, therefore not the same
independent events
(a) (iii) 4 39 Either P(WC) Both P(WC) An equation for
P(WC) = × 0.64 × 0.75 = = 0.2743 OR AND the expected $
7 140
P(BC) is calculated P(BC) is return is given
3 144 correctly calculated
P(BC) = × 0.84 × 0.64 = = 0.2304
7 625 correctly

Let the flock = N

39
Expected return = $2.75 × (A× + B×
140
144
¿
625
or Expected return
= $2.75 × (0.2743×N+ 0.2304×N)
= $1.3879N or equivalent
(b) Comments should be comparative in context At least one complete At least two At least two
and with evidence comparative statement complete complete
with evidence from comparative comparative
Evidence to support this could include a graph in context statements in statements with
comparison of: e.g. the spread of the context evidence in
- means white and brown eggs context,
- standard deviations are the same but the including
- shape sample sizes from the evidence of
- shift data collection is finding the spread
- proportions in the classes smaller for the brown AND
- weights below 35g are not recorded and shelled eggs reference to the
the ND is continuous compared to the white estimated
- symmetry or skewness of the two data shelled eggs numerical values
sets is made
The proportions in
Some specific numerical evidence needs to be each of the egg size
mentioned categories are
different with the
Words that indicate comparison Brown-eggs being
- Whereas skewed negatively (to
- Compared to as opposed to the left). Whereas the
- Differs from white eggs appear to
- Both be symmetrical, and
- Is smaller than unimodal

Making use of the numerical statistics: As we do not know

White Brown the exact values of the
Total
egg eggs weights as the data
Jumbo (size 195 145 340 has been put in to

NZAMT 2019: AS91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems 3

 8): 68g class sizes dependent
Large (size on the classification of
308 207 515
7): 62g the eggs
Standard
452 345 797
(size 6): 53g Approximate mean
Medium (size and std dev are
274 144 418
5): 44g compared
Pullet (size
156 47 203
4): 35g
Total: 1385 888 2273
Average
(g) 57.12 58.88
Standar
d
deviatio
n (g) 9.32 6.55

NØ N1 N2 A3 A4 M5 M6 E7 E8
No response; A valid 1 of u 2 of u 3 of u 1 of r 2 of r 1 of t 2 of t
no relevant attempt at
evidence. one
question.

Cut Score:
The minimum cut scores that were required at each grade in the 2018 paper were:
Achievement Achievement
Not Achieved Achievement
with Merit with Excellence
0-7 8 - 13 14 - 19 20 - 24
Minimum Score

NZAMT 2019: AS91267 Apply probability methods in solving problems 3