Chapter 8
Chapter 8
Chapter 8
Heteroskedasticity
1
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Consequences of heteroskedasticity for OLS
§ OLS still unbiased and consistent under heteroskedasticity!
§ Also, interpretation of R-squared is not changed
Unconditional error variance is unaffected by heteroskedasticity
(which refers to the conditional error variance)
2
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Heteroskedasticity-robust inference after OLS
§ Formulas for OLS standard errors and related statistics have been developed
that are robust to heteroskedasticity of unknown form
§ These robust formulas are only valid in large samples
§ Formula for heteroskedasticity-robust OLS standard error
Also called White/Eicker/Huber standard errors.
They involve the squared residuals from the
regression of 𝑥𝑗 on all other explanatory variables.
3
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Example: Hourly wage equation
4
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Testing for heteroskedasticity
§ It may still be interesting to test whether there is heteroskedasticity because then
OLS may not be the most efficient linear estimator anymore
Under MLR.4
5
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Breusch-Pagan test for heteroskedasticity (cont.)
6
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Example: heteroskedasticity in housing price equations
heteroskedasticity
⟹ 𝑅"#!% = .1601, 𝑝⎼𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒$ = .002, 𝑝⎼𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒%& = .0028
7
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
White test for heteroskedasticity Regress squared residuals on all explanatory variables,
their squares, and interactions (here: example for k=3)
9
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Weighted least squares estimation
Assume heteroskedasticity is known up to a multiplicative constant
The functional form of the
heteroskedasticity is known
Transformed model
10
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Example: Savings and income
If the other Gauss-Markov assumptions hold as well, OLS applied to the transformed
model is the best linear unbiased estimator!
11
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
OLS in the transformed model is called weighted least squares (WLS)
13
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Important special case of heteroskedasticity
§ If the observations are reported as averages at the city/county/state/country/firm level,
they should be weighted by the size of the unit
Average contribution to Average earnings Percentage firm heteroskedastic
pension plan in firm 𝑖 and age in firm 𝑖 contributes to plan error term
If errors are homoskedastic at the employee level, WLS with weights equal to firm size 𝑚𝑖
should be used. If the assumption of homoskedasticity at the employee level is not exactly
right, one can calculate robust standard errors after WLS (i.e. for the transformed model).
14
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Unknown heteroskedasticity function (feasible GLS)
Assumed general form of
heteroskedasticity; the exponential
function is used to ensure positivity
15
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Example: demand for cigarettes
§ Estimation by OLS
Cigarettes smoked per day Logged income and cigarette price
Reject homoskedasticity
16
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
Estimation by FGLS Now statistically significant
Discussion
§ The income elasticity is now statistically significant; other coefficients are also more
precisely estimated (without changing the quality of the results)
17
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
What if the assumed heteroskedasticity function is wrong?
§ If the heteroskedasticity function is misspecified, WLS is still consistent under MLR.1 –
MLR.4, but robust standard errors should be computed
§ WLS is consistent under MLR.4 but not necessarily under MLR.4‘
§ If OLS and WLS produce very different estimates, this typically indicates that some other
assumptions (e.g. MLR.4) are wrong
§ If there is strong heteroskedasticity, it is still often better to use a wrong form of
heteroskedasticity in order to increase efficiency
18
Multiple Regression Analysis: Heteroskedasticity
WLS in the linear probability model
Discussion
§ Infeasible if LPM predictions are below zero or greater than one
§ If such cases are rare, they may be adjusted to values such as .01/.99
§ Otherwise, it is probably better to use OLS with robust standard errors
19
Summary
§ Testing for heteroskedasticity
• Breusch-Pagan test
• White test
• Alternative form of the White test
§ If heteroskedasticity exists, corrective measures
• heteroskedasticity-robust standard error
• WLS if heteroskedasticity is known to a multiplicative constant
• If observations are reported as averages at the group level
• Linear probability model
• FGLS for unknown heteroskedasticity function
20