AOK: Natural Sciences

The Scientific. Method

 Learning: a reminder
Remember, one of the most highly researched successful
learning technique is:
Retrieval Practice

We remember little and forget quickly

So, effective learning requires RETRIEVAL to move short term
memory into long term memory (called TRANSFER)
Rote learning/ memorisation is NOT actually learning – it is a
short time memory aid
Real learning occurs OVER TIME to recall and apply knowledge
and skills in a new way
 Retrieval Practice from last session

Retrieval Practice on the nature of Natural

Sciences
‘The thing that does not fit is the most interesting’
(Feynman) Does this mean that Science is just chance
discovery?
Is Science a search for simplicity or complexity?
Is the definition of Science dependent on a cultural context?
Therefore, is Science different in different places?
 A fun item

Odds on that God exists, says

scientist
Stewart Maclean, Catherine Bolsover and
Polly CurtisMonday March 8, 2004 The
Guardian
A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that
God exists.
Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old
formula to calculate the probability of the
existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes' Theory
is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as
nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that
could affect a situation.
The Manchester University graduate, who now works as a risk
assessor in Ohio, said the theory starts from the assumption
that God has a 50/50 chance of existing, and then factors in the
 A fun item

Factors that were considered included recognition of goodness,

which Dr Unwin said makes the existence of God more likely,
countered by things like the existence of natural evil - including
earthquakes and cancer.
The unusual workings - which even take into account the
existence of miracles - are set out in his new book, which
includes a spreadsheet of the data used so that anyone can
make the calculation themselves should they doubt its validity.
The book, The Probability of God: A simple
calculation that proves the ultimate truth, will
be published later this month.
Dr Unwin said he was interested in bridging the gap between
science and religion. He argues that rather than being a
theological issue, the question of God's existence
is simply a matter of statistics.
 A fun item

"On arriving in America I was exposed to certain religious

outlooks that were somewhat of an assault upon my
sensibilities - outlooks in which religion actually
competes with science as an explanation of
the world," he said.
"While I could not be sure, having slept through most of the
cathedral services I had attended during secondary school, this
did not seem like the version of faith I had remembered. In
many ways, this project was for me a journey home - a
reconciliation of my faith and education."
Despite his findings, Dr Unwin maintains that he is
personally around 95% certain that God
exists.
 A fun item

However, Graham Sharp, media relations director at William

Hill, said there were technical problems with giving odds on the
existence of God. "The problem is how you confirm the
existence of God. With the Loch Ness monster we require
confirmation from the Natural History Museum to pay out, but
who are we going to ask about God? The church would
definitely confirm his existence."
Mr Sharp said William Hill does take bets on the
second coming, which currently stand at
1,000/1. For this confirmation is needed from the
Archbishop of Canterbury.
"We do take bets on the second coming, whether that confirms
the existence of God is up to the theologians to argue, most
people wouldn't believe that, though."
EducationGuardian.co.uk © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004
Lesson Objective:
Analysing the
Scientific Method
 Natural Sciences

Knowledge Questions about Scientific

Method:
Is there a single “scientific method”?
What kinds of explanations do natural scientists offer?
What is the role of inductive and deductive reasoning
in scientific inquiry, prediction and explanation?
 ‘The’ Scientific
Method
These are all elements associated with the Scientific
Method. Try and put them in a sequential order

1. Experiment
2. Hypothesis
3. Measurement
4. Repeatability
5. Induction
6. Law
7. Observation
8. Theory
 ‘The’ Scientific
Method
1.

2.
In pairs: Can you get the
3. right order?

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.
 ‘The’ Scientific
Method
Now, what words can we
1. associate with this process?

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8. Then Deduction
 Recall: ‘The’ Scientific Method: a
stereotype?
Some widely held views about Science:
There is something special about science and its methods –
we trust Science
A claim to be ‘scientific’ implies some kind of merit or
reliability – definitely true
Science is value free; it is objective; its free from human
fallibility – scientifically proven is fact
A scientist acquires knowledge for its own sake; scientific
knowledge is proven knowledge

So, the Scientific Method is central to the production of

scientific knowledge
Recall: ‘The’ Scientific Method: an alternative
view?
Consider:
Science is a human construction. Science, like
art, reflects what we say about ourselves and
our development at a certain point in time
The number of rational hypotheses that can
explain an given phenomenon is infinite
Scientists are people of very different
temperaments: some are collectors, some
classifiers, some detectives, some artists, some
poets, some philosophers and some mystics
Science has developed through the aid of
unscientific beliefs & procedures, irrational
hunches, lucky accidents and fortuitous guesses
 ‘The’ Scientific
Method
Write your answers and thoughts

So, is the human element in Science a factor that

makes it inexact and unreliable?
Is it impossible that the laws of gravity might be
changed in the future?
 ‘The’ Scientific
Method
Let’s look at what is happening a bit more closely

Induction and Deduction

 Science put simply
Inductivism: singular
statements that justify
general statementsLaws and
theories

Inductio Deduction
n process
process

Predictions &
explanations
Facts acquired
through Deductivism: general
observation statements that predict
singular statements
 The Scientific Method

Induction Deduction
(empirical process) Now can make
1. Observe & gather data predictions
seeking to eliminate about general
irrelevant factors laws
2. Analyse the data & draw Note: a law is
conclusions in the form of a systematic
hypotheses way of
3. Devise experiments to describing
test the hypotheses. If the what has been
hypothesis is correct then experienced –
results should be it describes
anticipated behaviour, it
4. Modify hypotheses in light does not
experiments command or
5. From the experiments, control it
data & hypotheses now
argue a general theory
 Induction and Deduction

In groups, answer the following questions:

Which ones are Inductive, which Deductive?
Natural Sciences and Monty
Python
Is this Deductive or Inductive: Why?
There are 32 books on the top shelf of the
bookcase, and 12 on the lower shelf.
There are no more books anywhere else
in my bookcase. Therefore, there are 44
books in the bookcase
Inductive
Is this Deductive or Inductive: Why?
Bergen is either in Norway or Sweden. If
Bergen is in Norway, then Bergen is in
Scandinavia. If Bergen is in Sweden, then
Bergen is in Scandinavia. Therefore,
Bergen is in Scandinavia.
Deductive
Is this Deductive or Inductive: Why?
The members of the William’s family are
Susan, Nathan and Alexander.
Susan wears glasses
Nathan wears glasses
Alexander wears glasses
Therefore, all members of the Williams
family wear glasses
Inductive
Is this Deductive or Inductive: Why? Any
problems?
It has snowed in Massachusetts every
December in recorded history. Therefore, it
will snow in Massachusetts this December.
Deductive
Is this Deductive or Inductive: Why?
All odd numbers are integers
All even numbers are integers
Therefore, all odd numbers are even numbers
Inductive
 Syllogisms

A common form of deductive reasoning is the

syllogism, in which two statements — a major
premise and a minor premise — reach a logical
conclusion.
For example, the premise "Every A is B" could be
followed by another premise, "This C is A." Those
statements would lead to the conclusion "This C
is B."
Syllogisms are considered a good way to test
deductive reasoning to make sure the argument
is valid.
 Scientific inductive logic (Syllogisms):
1. Fairly pure water freezes at about 0°C
2. My car radiator contains fairly pure
water
3. If the temperature falls below 0°C, the
water in my car radiator will freeze
Therefore the scientific method is:
1. Laws & theories
2. Initial conditions
3. Predictions & explanations
The fallacy of an inductivist turkey:
‘The turkey found that on his first morning at the
farm, he was fed at 9am. However, being a good
inductivist he did not jump to conclusions. He
waited until he had collected a large number of
scientific observations of the fact that he was fed
at 9am, and he made these observations under a
large number of circumstances; on weekdays,
weekends, rainy days, sunny days. Finally, his
inductivist logic & conscience told him that he was
“always going to be fed at 9am.” Alas, the next
day was Christmas and his throat was cut………….
An inductive premise with scientific values &
practice had led the turkey to a false
premise…………………
An Inductive argument
may be highly probable,
yet lead from true
premises to a false
conclusion.
So, is it true that Newton`s apple will
always fall?
 Science
Review: The Scientific Method

- Observation of the world

- Awareness something to be explained
- Tentative guess called a hypothesis, given as a possible
solution
- Hypothesis verified by experiment
- With this confirmation the `guess` becomes a theory or
law
- With this law, all future events can be predicted
 Thought….Perhaps Science is actually
probability:‘Scientific knowledge is not proven
knowledge, but it does represent knowledge that is
probably true’
 Natural Sciences
Review the Knowledge Questions about
Scientific Method:
Is there a single “scientific method”?
What kinds of explanations do natural scientists offer?
What is the role of inductive and deductive reasoning in
scientific inquiry, prediction and explanation?
It makes your head hurt…………