PERTCPMI
PERTCPMI
Arrows
A Network (also called network diagram or pointing in opposite direction are to be
network technique) is a symbolic avoided.
representation of the essential characteristics 3. Arrows should be kept straight and not
of a project. PERT and CPM are the two most curved.
widely applied techniques. 4. Angles between the arrows should be as
(a) Programme Evaluation and Review large as possible.
Technique (PERT): It uses event oriented 5. Arrows should not cross each other. Where
network in which successive events are joined crossing cannot be avoided, bridging should be
by arrows. It is preferred for projects that are done.
non-repetitive and in which time for various 6. Each activity must have a tail and a head
activities cannot be precisely pre-determined. event. No two or more activities may have the
There is no significant past experience to same tail and head events.
guide; they are once-through projects. 7. An event is not complete until all the
Launching a new project in the market by a activities flowing into it are completed.
company, research and development of a new 8. No subsequent activity can begin until its
war weapon, launching of satellite, etc are tail event is completed.
PERT projects. Three time estimates i.e. the 9. In a network diagram there should be only
optimistic time estimate, pessimistic time one initial event and one end event.
estimate and the most likely time estimate are
associated with each and every activity to take Dummy: An activity which only determines
into account the uncertainty in their times. the dependency of one activity on the other,
(b) Critical Path Method (CPM): It uses but dies not consume any time is called a
activity oriented network which consists of a dummy activity. Dummies are usually
number of well recognized jobs, tasks or represented by dotted line arrows.
activities. Each activity is represented by A dummy activity is introduced in the network
arrow and the activities are joined together by for two basic reasons:
events. CPM is generally used for simple, 1. To maintain the precise logic of the
repetitive types of projects for which the precedence of activities. Such a dummy is
activity time and costs are certainly and called ‘logical dummy’.
precisely known. Projects like construction of 2. To comply with the rule that no two or more
a building, road, bridge, physical verification activities can have the same tail and head
of store, yearly closing of accounts by a events. Such a dummy is called ‘grammatical
company can be handled by CPM. Thus it is dummy’.
deterministic rather than probabilistic model.
1. Draw a network for the simple project of
Network Construction: Firstly the project is erection of steel works for a shed. The various
split into activities. Start and Finish events of activities of the project are as under:
the project are then decided. After deciding the
precedence order, the activities are put in a Preceded
Activity Description
logical sequence by using the graphical by
notations. While constructing the network, in A Erect site workshop --
order to ensure that the activities fall in a B Fence site --
logical sequence. Activities which must be C Bend reinforcement A
completed before a particular activity starts are D Dig foundation B
called the predecessor activities and those E Fabricate steel work A
which must follow a particular activity are F Install Concrete pillars B
called successor activities. G Place reinforcement C,D
While drawing the network following points H Concrete foundation G,F
should be kept in mind: I Erect steel work E
1. Each activity is represented by one and only J Paint steel work H,I
one arrow. But in some situations where an K Give finishing touch J
activity is further subdivided into segments,
each segment will be represented by a separate
arrow.
2. Draw a network for the following project C A M L
and number the events according to D C N K, M
Fulkerson’s rule: E C O N
A is the start event and K is the end event, F B, D P N
A precedes event B, G E Q N
J is the successor event to F, H F, G R N
C and D are successor events to B, I H S N
D is the preceding event to G, J H T N
E and F occur after event C,
E precedes F, 7. A new type of conveyor is to be designed.
C restraints the occurrence of G and G The following list represents the major
precedes H, activities together with the precedence
H precedes J and K succeeds J, relationship. Construct the network diagram.
F restraints the occurrence of H. Preceded Preceded
Activity Activity
by by
3. A project consists of a series of tasks 1 -- 7 5
labelled A, B,....H, I with the following
2 1 8 7
relationships (W < X, Y means X and Y
2 1 9 6
cannot start until W is completed; X, Y < W
4 3 10 9, 8
means W cannot start until both X and Y are
completed). With this notation construct the 5 2, 3 11 10
network diagram having the following 6 4, 5 -- --
constraints: (dummy)
A < D, E; B, D < F; C < G; B < H; F , G < I CRITICAL PATH ANALYSIS: The Critical
Path of a network gives the shortest time in
4. Construct the network for the following which the whole project can be completed. It
activity data: is the chain of activities with the longest time
Preceded Preceded durations. These activities are called critical
Activity Activity activities. The critical path analysis consists of
by by
A -- H F the following steps:
1. Calculate the time schedule for each
B -- I H
activity: It involves the determination of the
C B J I
time by which an activity must begin and the
D A K D, E, G, J
time before which it must be completed. The
E C L I time schedule date for each activity include the
F C M K, L calculation of the earliest start, the earliest
G F -- -- finish, the latest start, the latest finish times
and the float.
5. Construct the network for the following 2. Calculate the time schedule for the
activity data: completion of the entire project: It involves
Preceded Preceded the calculation of project completion time.
Activity Activity
by by 3. Identify the critical activities and find the
A -- G B, C critical path: Critical activities are the ones
B -- H F which must be started and completed on
C A I F, G schedule or else the project may get delayed.
D B, C J H, I The path containing these activities is the
E D K B critical path and is the longest part in terms of
F E L F, G, K duration.
1. Earliest Finish Time = Earliest Start Time +
6. Construct the network for the following Duration
activity data: 2. Latest Start Time = Latest Finish Time –
Preceded Preceded Duration
Activity Activity
by by 3. Float (Total Float) = Latest Finish Time –
A -- K I Earliest Finish Time OR
B A L I, J Float = Latest Start Time – Earliest Start Time
The Three Floats (i) Construct the network
1. Total Float: It is the difference between the (ii) Compute E and L for each event, and
maximum time available to perform the (iii) Find the Critical Path.
activity and the activity duration. The
maximum time available for any activity is 11. The utility data for a network are given
from the earliest start time to the latest below. Determine the total, free and
completion time. independent floats and identify the critical
2. Free Float: It is that portion of the total path.
float within which an activity can be Activity Duration Activity Duration
manipulated without affecting the floats of 0-1 2 3-4 3
subsequent activities. It is computed by 1-2 8 3-6 7
subtracting the head event slack from the total 1-3 10 4-7 5
float. The head event slack is (L - E) of the 2-4 6 5-7 2
event. 2-5 3 6-7 8
Therefore, Free Float of activity
i – j = T.F. – (L - E) of event j 12. Estimated times for the jobs of a project
Where L = Latest Finish Time are given below:
E = Earliest Start Time Time Time
3. Independent Float: It is that portion of the Job Job
(Weeks) (Weeks)
total float within which an activity can be A 13 G 7
delayed for start without affecting the floats of B 5 H 12
preceding activities. It is computed by C 8 I 8
subtracting the tail event slack from the free
D 10 J 9
float. If the result is negative, it is taken as
E 9 K 4
zero.
F 7 L 17
Therefore, Independent Float of activity
i – j = F.F – (L – E) of tail event i The constraints governing the jobs are as
follows:
8. Tasks A, B, C, ....., H, I constitute a project. A and B are start jobs; A controls C, D and E;
The precedence relationships are B controls F and J; G depends upon C; H
A < D; A < E; B < F; D < F; C < G; C < H; depends upon D; E and F control I and L; K
F < I; G < I. follows J; L is also controlled by K; G, H, I
and L are the last jobs.
9. A project schedule has the following Draw the network, determine floats for each
characteristics: activity, project duration and the critical path.
Activity Duration Activity Duration
13. For the following activity data draw the
1-2 14 3-6 12
network, find the critical path and the three
1-3 15 4-5 1
floats for each activity:
2-3 3 4-6 14
Activity Duration Activity Duration
2-5 5 5-6 3
1-2 4 5-8 9
3-4 8 6-7 14
1-4 36 6-7 9
(i) Construct the network
2-3 2 7-8 9
(ii) Find the Critical Path
3-5 15 7-9 8
3-8 10 8-9 20
10. A project schedule has the following
characteristics: 4-8 2 9-10 20
Time Time 5-6 4 -- --
Activity Activity
(Weeks) (Weeks)
1-2 4 5-6 4 14. A project has the following characteristics:
1-3 1 5-7 8 Preceding Duration
Activity
Activity (weeks)
2-4 1 6-8 1
A - 5
3-4 1 7-8 2
B A 2
3-5 6 8-10 5
C A 6
4-9 5 9-10 7
D B 12 (i) Draw the network and find the project
E D 10 completion time.
F D 9 (ii) Calculate the three floats for each activity.
G D 5
H B 9 PROGRAMME EVALUATION AND
I C, E 1 REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT):
J G 2 The CPM system of networks omits the
K F, I, J 3 probabilistic considerations and is based on a
L K 9 Single Time Estimate of the average time
M H, G 7 required to execute the activity.
In PERT analysis, time duration of each
N M 8
activity is no longer a single time estimate, but
(a) Draw network for this project
is a random variable characterised by some
(b) Find the various paths, the critical path and
probability distribution – usually a β-
project completion time.
distribution. To estimate the parameters of the
(c) Prepare an activity schedule showing the
β-distribution (the mean and variance), the
ES, EF, LS, LF and float for each activity.
PERT system is based on Three Time
(d) Will the critical path change if activity G
Estimates of the performance time of an
takes 10 weeks instead of 5 weeks? If so, what
activity. They are:-
will be the new critical path?
(i) The Optimistic Time Estimate: The shortest
possible time required for the completion of an
15. Consider a project comprising of 12
activity, if all goes extremely well, no
activities with following precedence
provisions are made for delays or setbacks
relationship and durations:
while estimating this time.
Preceding Duration
Activity (ii) The Pessimistic Time Estimate: The
Activity (weeks)
maximum possible time the activity will take
A -- 4
if everything goes bad. However, major
B -- 8 catastrophes such as earthquakes, floods,
C A 2 storms and labour troubles are not taken into
D A 4 account while estimating this time.
E A 9 (iii) The Most Likely Time Estimate: The time
F D 1 an activity will take if executed under normal
G C 7 conditions. It is the modal value.
H D 3
[ ]
I E, F 2 tp−¿
2
J B, I 2 1. Variance = σ2 =
6
K G, H 5
L J, K 4 Or
(i) Draw the network and find the critical path tp−¿
σ=
(ii) List the total float, free float and 6
independent float for all the activities.
¿+4 tm+tp
2. μ =
16. A small project consists of seven activities 6
for which the relevant data is given below:
Preceding Duration
Activity
Activity (days) 3. te = μ
A -- 4
B -- 7 T −Tcp
4. Z = Standard Normal Variate =
C -- 6 σ
D A, B 5
E A, B 7 17. Consider the network shown below. For
F C, D, E 6 each activity, the three time estimated to, tm
G C, D, E 5 and tp are given along the arrows in the to-tm-
tp order. Determine Variance and expected
time for each activity.
21. The time estimates (in weeks) for the
18. Consider the network shown below. The activities of a PERT network are given below.
three time estimates for the activities are given Activity to tm tp
along the arrows. Determine the critical path. 1-2 1 1 7
What is the probability that the project will be 1-3 1 4 7
completed in 20 days? 1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 6 15
(a) Draw the network and identify all the paths
through it.
(b) Determine the expected project length
19. Consider the network shown below. The
(c) Calculate the standard deviation and
three time estimates, the expected activity
variance of the project length
durations and the variances are shown along
(d) What is the probability that the project will
the arrows. The earliest expected times and the
be completed:
latest allowable occurrence times are
(i) at least 4 weeks earlier than expected
computed and put along the nodes. What is the
time?
probability of completing the project in (i) 12
(ii) no more than 4 weeks later than expected
days (ii) 14 days (iii) 10 days?
time?
(e) If the project due date is 19 weeks, what is
the probability of not meeting the due date?
(f) The probability that the project will be
completed on schedule if the scheduled
completion time is 20 weeks.
(g) What should be the scheduled completion
time for the probability of completion to be
90%?