International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS)

Vol. 13, No. 1, March 2022, pp. 159~166

ISSN: 2088-8694, DOI: 10.11591/ijpeds.v13.i1.pp159-166  159

Short-term load forecasting of the distribution system using

cuckoo search algorithm

Saroj Kumar Panda1, Papia Ray1, Debani Prasad Mishra2, Surender Reddy Salkuti3
1
Department of Electrical Engineering, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Odisha, India
2
Department of Electrical Engineering, International Institute of Information Technology (IIIT), Bhubaneswar, India
3
Department of Railroad and Electrical Engineering, Woosong University, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

Article Info ABSTRACT

Article history: For solving the different optimization problems, the cuckoo search is one of
the best nature's inspired algorithms. It is an effective technique compare to
Received Jan 19, 2021 other optimization methods. For this manuscript, we are using a back
Revised Jan 19, 2022 propagation neural network for the Xintai power plant consist of short-term
Accepted Jan 24, 2022 electrical load forecasting. The limitation of back propagation is overcome
by the cuckoo search algorithm. The function is used for cuckoo search is
Gamma probability distribution and its result is compared with other
Keywords: possible cuckoo search methods. The mean average percentage error of
Gamma cuckoo search is 0.123%, cuckoo search with Pareto based is
Artificial neural network 0.127% and Levy based cuckoo search is 0.407%. Other results of the
Back propagation cuckoo search are also found by a linear decreasing switching parameter
Cuckoo search with a mean average error is 0.344% and 0.389% of mean average error with
Distribution system the use of an exponentially increasing switching parameter. This improved
Optimization cuckoo search algorithm brings good results in the predicted load which is
Short term load forecasting very important for the Xintai power plant using short-term load forecasting.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license.

Corresponding Author:
Surender Reddy Salkuti
Department of Railroad and Electrical Engineering, Woosong University
17-2, Jayang-Dong, Dong-Gu, Daejeon – 34606, Republic of Korea
Email: [email protected]

1. INTRODUCTION
For a given problem, the optimal solution is obtained by a systematic procedure which is known as
optimization [1]−[3]. It is used for the solution of maximum and minimum value of a problem and it is called
cost function or objective function. There are two types of optimization problems, i.e., constrained and
unconstrained problems. For the solution of all subsets, constrained problems are using and for all viable
solutions, unconstrained functions are using [4]−[6]. Now a day, the optimization technique is adopted by
different areas but not limited to specific systems. Like the transmission of electricity with a minimum loss,
design of the system, operation of an electric circuit, generation of electricity and wireless communication
routing. So, suitable optimization is required for the calculation of the computation time, converge rate and
minimum or maximum value accurately [7], [8].
Nature's inspired algorithm is constructed by the researcher with the inspection of the behavior of
animals. For the calculation of the distance between a bat and its surrounding, the researchers are using a
bat-inspired algorithm [9]. This technique is also used for the calculation object in frequency tuning.
Similarly, another nature's inspired algorithm is particle swarm optimization (PSO) where the fishes and
birds are searching for their food considered as a potential solution in PSO [10]. In this technique, the
animals are searching for food and they communicate the food to the rest of the group when the food source
is found. Here, the food source is considered as the best solution for the processing of food among groups.

Journal homepage: http://ijpeds.iaescore.com

160  ISSN: 2088-8694

For the calculation of storm and prince, the differential evolution (DE) algorithm is using based on a
population vector. This population vector consists of the size of the population which does not change during
the searching process and uniform probability distribution. The different parameters are affecting the growth
of the population i.e. mutation (new generation), crossover (increasing of diversity) and selection (finding of
new solution). It is a robust and efficient process used for continuous space [11]. The behavior of foraging is
used by Ant and Bee algorithm which is known as a chemical messenger. It is also known as pheromone
[12]. For global optimization, the use of nature's inspired algorithm is simulated annealing (SA). This
technique finds a good solution as compared to the limited time constraint of the global solution [13].
The other nature’s inspired algorithm is the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm which depends on the
reproduction of the kids to increase the population [14]. But, this algorithm is good as compare to other
algorithms because the other algorithms like DE, SA and PSO are derived from the CS algorithm has potential
random walk and makes the balance between local and global search as compared to SA and GA [14]. The CS
algorithm is better than the DE algorithm in terms of convergence speed and finding a good solution [15]. The
computational efficiency of the CS algorithm is also good as compared to the PSO algorithm. The CS algorithm
is also used in the smart grid for the minimization of loss of real power by control of fault and variation of
voltage with allowable level [16]. So, with the consideration of time from one hour to one week, short term load
forecasting (STLF) is using in industries. It is used for the planning and maintenance of power networks [17].
The factors which affect the STLF are considered for its work in [18].
The research gap from the above study is the old techniques are bringing poor results in STLF in
past. So, in this manuscript, the research gap is fulfilled by the application of different distribution of cuckoo
search algorithms in STLF which removes the disadvantages of old techniques. The other parts of this
manuscript are arranged as follows: section 2 gives the simulation of STLF. Section 3 presents results and
discussions of the work. At last, the conclusion of the work is represented by section 4.

2. STLF SIMULATION
It brings the results of the forecasted load in STLF. After that, the forecasted load will compare with
the actual load. Then, we applied the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to calculate the error in the
forecasted load as given in (1).

1 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑−𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑

𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 = ∑𝑁
𝑖=1 ( ) × 100 (1)
𝑁 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑

Where 𝑁 is total number of the data set.

2.1. Collection of data

The historical data is collected from the Xintai power plant in the year 2016 from the date of 6.10 to
6.30. The data set is divided into three parts i.e. training, validation and testing as in [19]. Here sunny day is
expressed by 0, cloudy day by 0.5 and rainy day by 1.

2.2. Pre-processing of data

The transfer function depends on the input value. If the input value is very large, then the output
value does not contain the actual value. So it is avoided by set-up the normalized value within the range of
[0, 1] using the minimap function in MATLAB 2015 software package. The processing data is also
considered for the missing data.

2.3. Simulation result

The STLF using a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) [20]−[23] is shown in Figure 1. It contains
4 inputs, 25 hidden layers and one output layer with a transfer function. Here, the sigmoid function is used as
a transfer function. Figure 1 explains the process of the data transformation from the input layer to the output
layer through hidden layers. It also helps in the prediction of the forecasted load. The hourly based load is
forecasted at the output of NN [24] uses Levenberg-Marquardt [25] back propagation for the training and
forecasts.
Figure 2 shows the flow chart of a hybrid Levenberg-Marquardt. It is good as compared to Levenberg-
Marquardt BP. Because BP [26]−[29] able to finds the minimum but it will not able to find the global minima in
test function or loss. Figure 2 explains that, the feasibility solution of the forecasted load [30]−[32]. It helps in
the removal of the disturbance signal present in the data set for the smooth train of FFNN.

Int J Pow Elec & Dri Syst, Vol. 13, No. 1, March 2022: 159-166
Int J Pow Elec & Dri Syst ISSN: 2088-8694  161

Figure 1. FFNN with BP

Figure 2. Flow chart of hybrid Levenberg-Marquardt

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The load forecasting is considered from 6.10 to 6.30 in the year 2016 which contains probability CS
is given in Tables 1 and 2 and the Cauchy switched parameter CS algorithm is given in Tables 3 and 4.
Table 5 represents a comparison of different techniques in STLF [33], [34]. Figures 3 to 8 present the
analysis of actual and forecasted load.

Table 1. Load forecasting with probability CS algorithm

Actual load Forecasted load (MW)
(MW) LevyCS CauchyCS GaussCS GammaCS ParetoCS
943 945 942 941 943 942
914 915 913 912 914 913
907 903 904 905 907 906
875 865 875 875 870 874
873 860 869 870 870 871
872 871 870 869 872 871
931 929 930 929 930 930
976 972 976 973 975 975
1062 1061 1061 1059 1062 1060
1144 1140 1140 1141 1144 1142
1213 1210 1209 1210 1213 1211
1263 1258 1262 1260 1260 1262
1231 1230 1230 1229 1230 1230
1196 1185 1195 1193 1190 1195
1150 1145 1148 1147 1150 1148
1190 1185 1187 1185 1188 1188
1212 1207 1210 1208 1210 1210
1231 1226 1229 1225 1230 1230
1223 1221 1221 1219 1223 1221
1228 1223 1226 1223 1225 1226
1245 1240 1242 1242 1240 1243
1317 1315 1314 1313 1317 1315
1214 1210 1211 1212 1214 1213
1081 1075 1080 1079 1081 1080

Short-term load forecasting of the distribution system using cuckoo search algorithm (Saroj Kumar Panda)
162  ISSN: 2088-8694

Table 2. MAPE with probability CS algorithm

CS algorithms MAPE (%)
LevyCS 0.407
CauchyCS 0.168
GaussCS 0.264
GammaCS 0.123
ParetoCS 0.127

Table 1 explains the results of the different distribution of the cuckoo search. It also helps to know
that, the proposed distribution is good for STLF. The predicted loads are very important for STLF which
controls the price of electricity. Table 2 explains the MAPE results of the different distribution of cuckoo
search. It also helps to know that, the proposed distribution is good for STLF which also gives less error in
forecasted load. It indicates the load stability of different methods.
Table 3 explains the results of the different distribution of the cuckoo search. It also helps to know
that, the proposed distribution is good for STLF. The predicted loads are very important for STLF which
controls the price of electricity. Table 4 explains the MAPE results of the different distribution of cuckoo
search. It also helps to know that, the proposed distribution is good for STLF which also gives less error in
forecasted load. It indicates the load stability of different methods. Table 5 explains the MAPE results of
different methods used for STLF and it brings high error in STLF as compare to different distribution
functions of CS. So the CS is good for STLF which gives less error in forecasted load.
The MAPE of Gamma-CS is 0.123% as compared to the MAPE of Pareto-CS is 0.127% as given in
Table 2. So the result of Pareto based CS is better than Levy probability CS. The performance of Levy CS is
the least as compared to the other four probability methods. The result of decreasing the switching parameter
in CS (CSLD) with respect to MAPE is 0.344% and the result of exponentially increasing parameter in CS
(CSEI) with respect to MAPE is 0.389%. So the increasing switching parameter brings good results as
compared to constant real switching parameters of CS (CSCo) as given in Table 4 and Gamma-CS is also
good as compared to other techniques as given in Table 5.

Table 3. Load forecasting with switching parameter CS algorithm

Actual load Forecasted load (MW)
(MW) CSCo CSLD CSLI CSPI CSEI
943 909 911 910 911 912
914 908 912 910 912 913
907 895 905 900 905 906
875 849 870 850 872 873
873 855 870 860 870 871
872 855 870 860 869 870
931 915 930 920 929 930
976 961 970 960 970 973
1062 1051 1060 1050 1060 1061
1144 1132 1140 1130 1142 1143
1213 1211 1212 1210 1211 1212
1263 1262 1262 1260 1259 1260
1231 1226 1230 1225 1230 1231
1196 1193 1195 1190 1192 1195
1150 1141 1149 1140 1130 1149
1190 1181 1189 1180 1183 1185
1212 1206 1210 1205 1209 1210
1231 1228 1230 1225 1228 1229
1223 1216 1220 1215 1211 1213
1228 1222 1227 1220 1225 1226
1245 1231 1240 1230 1234 1235
1317 1307 1310 1305 1308 1309
1214 1206 1210 1205 1205 1208
1081 1072 1080 1070 1074 1075

Table 4. MAPE with switching parameter CS algorithm

CS algorithms MAPE (%)
CSCo 0.895
CSLD 0.344
CSLI 0.957
CSPI 0.574
CSEI 0.389

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Int J Pow Elec & Dri Syst ISSN: 2088-8694  163

Table 5. MAPE with different algorithms

Algorithms MAPE (%)
Back propagation neural network (BPNN) 3.42
Genetic algorithm back propagation neural network (GA-BPNN) 3.86
Particle swarm optimization Elman neural network (PSO-ENN) 1.17

Figure 3 (a) gives the forecasted load of the LevyCS distribution of cuckoo search. This method
brings good accuracy and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the
load in a short interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 3 (b)
gives the forecasted load of the CauchyCS distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings good accuracy
and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the load in a short
interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation.
Figure 4 (a) gives the forecasted load of the GaussCS distribution of cuckoo search. This method
brings good accuracy and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the
load in a short interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 4 (b)
gives the forecasted load of the GammaCS distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings good accuracy
and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the load in a short
interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation.

(a) (b)

Figure 3. Comparison between actual and predicted loads (a) using LevyCS method and (b) using
CauchyCS method

(a) (b)

Figure 4. Comparison between actual and predicted loads (a) using GaussCS method and (b) using
GammaCS method

Figure 5 (a) gives the forecasted load of the Pareto distribution of cuckoo search. This method
brings good accuracy and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the
load in a short interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 5 (b)
gives the forecasted load of the different distribution of cuckoo search. These methods are bringing good
accuracy and maintain load stability. These are robust methods which include all variable affect the load in a
short interval of time and give less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation.
Figure 6 (a) gives the forecasted load of the CSCo distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings
good accuracy and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the load in
a short interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 6 (b) gives the
forecasted load of the CSLD distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings good accuracy and maintains
load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the load in a short interval of time and
gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation.

Short-term load forecasting of the distribution system using cuckoo search algorithm (Saroj Kumar Panda)
164  ISSN: 2088-8694

(a) (b)

Figure 5. Comparison between actual and predicted loads: (a) using ParetoCS method and (b) using
different methods

(a) (b)

Figure 6. Comparison between actual and predicted loads: (a) using CSCo method and (b) using CSLD
method

Figure 7 (a) gives the forecasted load of the CSLI distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings
good accuracy and maintains load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the load in
a short interval of time and gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 7 (b) gives the
forecasted load of the CSPI distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings good accuracy and maintains
load stability. It is a robust method which includes all variable affect the load in a short interval of time and
gives less error in output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 8 (a) gives the forecasted load of the
CSEI distribution of cuckoo search. This method brings good accuracy and maintains load stability. It is a
robust method which includes all variable affect the load in a short interval of time and gives less error in
output with the use of MAPE calculation. Figure 8 (b) gives the forecasted load of the different distribution
of cuckoo search. These methods are bringing good accuracy and maintain load stability. These are robust
methods which include all variable affect the load in a short interval of time and give less error in output with
the use of MAPE calculation.

(a) (b)

Figure 7. Comparison between actual and predicted loads (a) using CSLI method and (b) using CSPI
method

(a) (b)

Figure 8. Comparison between actual and predicted loads (a) using CSEI method and (b) using different
methods

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Int J Pow Elec & Dri Syst ISSN: 2088-8694  165

4. CONCLUSION
The optimization theory and its importance in the engineering problem are described in this
manuscript. The different nature's inspired algorithms like PSO, DE and SA are discussed with their work.
Here we got good results in efficient random work of the CS algorithm and maintained the balance between
the local and global random walk as compared to other algorithms. It is also reviewed the work of NN for the
STLF. The CS for improved BP is also discussed. The probability distribution and dynamic switching
parameters are also discussed for the improvement of CS. For the electric load forecasting, 4-25-1 FFNN is
used. The Gamma probability rings good results as compared to other methods and its error is 0.123%. The
average error of Pareto and Levy based CS is 0.127% and 0.407%. The average error of decreasing switching
parameter is 0.344% in CS and it is good as compared to exponentially increasing parameters i.e. 0.389%.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research work was funded by “Woosong University’s Academic Research Funding - 2022”.

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BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS

Saroj Kumar Panda received the B.Tech in electrical and electronics engineering
from Biju Patnaik University of Technology, Odisha, India in 2010 and the M.Tech in power
electronics from Biju Patnaik University of Technology, Odisha, India in 2013 and pursuing the
Ph.D. in power systems from Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Odisha, India. His
research interests include the Application of Soft Computing Techniques in Power System
Protection. He can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Papia Ray received the B.Tech in electrical engineering from Govt. College (Bihar
University), India, M.Tech in power systems from Ranchi University, India and a Ph.D. degree
in power systems from IIT, Delhi, India, in 2013. She is currently serving as Associate Professor
in the Dept of Electrical Engg, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Burla, Odisha. She
has more than 17 years of teaching experience. She is the author of one book published by
springer and more than 50 research articles. Further, she is the recipient of the Young Scientist
award by DST, New Delhi in 2015. Her research interests include the Application of Soft
Computing Techniques in Power System Protection, Wide-area measurement system,
Biomedical Signal processing. She can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Debani Prasad Mishra received the B.Tech. in electrical engineering from the
Biju Patnaik University of Technology, Odisha, India, in 2006 and the M.Tech in power systems
from IIT, Delhi, India in 2010. He has been awarded the Ph.D. degree in power systems from
Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Odisha, India, in 2019. He is currently serving as
Assistant Professor in the Dept of Elect. Eng, International Institute of Information Technology
Bhubaneswar, Odisha. He has 11 years of teaching experience and 2 years of industry experience
in the thermal power plant. He is the author of more than 80 research articles. His research
interests include soft Computing techniques application in power system, signal processing and
power quality. 3 students have been awarded Ph.D under his guidance and currently 4 Ph.D.
Scholars are continuing under him. He can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Surender Reddy Salkuti received the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from
the Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India, in 2013. He was a Postdoctoral Researcher
with Howard University, Washington, DC, USA, from 2013 to 2014. He is currently an
Associate Professor with the Department of Railroad and Electrical Engineering, Woosong
University, Daejeon, South Korea. His current research interests include power system
restructuring issues, ancillary service pricing, real and reactive power pricing, congestion
management, and market clearing, including renewable energy sources, demand response, smart
grid development with integration of wind and solar photovoltaic energy sources, artificial
intelligence applications in power systems, and power system analysis and optimization. He can
be contacted at email: [email protected].

Int J Pow Elec & Dri Syst, Vol. 13, No. 1, March 2022: 159-166