PROBABILITY PART 1

 Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with

calculating how likely it is that a given event occurs or
happens.
 When we talk about the probability of something
happening, we call the something an event for example
getting tails or heads when tossing a coin is an event.
 Probability is expressed as a number between 0 and 1 .
 A probability of 0 means that an event will never occur.
 A probability of 1 means that an event will always occur.
 The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is
that the event will occur. The words chance or likelihood are
often used in place of the word probability.
 Tossing a coin is an activity or experiment.
 If both Heads (H) and Tails (T) have an equal chance
of landing face up, it is called a fair coin. .
 Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads"
and "tails") are both equally probable.
 The probability of "heads" equals the probability of
"tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible,
1
the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 2

(which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).

 Throwing a dice is an activity or experiment.
 If each number on the dice has an equal chance of
landing face up, it is called a fair dice.
 In a die there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
1
6. The probability of any of the outcomes is .
6
For any activity or probability experiment you can usually The event you are interested in is getting a 6 and the
favourable outcome is 6.
list all the outcomes. The set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment is a sample space.

An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset

of the sample space.

Outcomes of the event you are interested in are called the

favourable outcomes for that event.

For example, when you throw a dice and get a 6, the

activity is throwing a dice.

The sample space is 1; 2; 3; 4; 5 and 6.

We can write probabilities in terms of:

 words

 common fractions

 percentages.

 The less likely an event is to happen, the

smaller the probability.
 The more likely an event is to happen, the
larger the probability

Example 1

A six-sided die is rolled. What is the

probability that it lands on an even number?

Example 2
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of
getting heads twice?
Venn Diagrams

The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called

the sample space and is denoted by the symbol S.

The sample space is the full set of data values

When rolling a die, the sample space is given by the set

S = {1; 2 ; 3 ; 4 ; 5 ; 6} .
There are three types of Venn diagrams:
An event is a subset of the sample space and is denoted
by a given capital letter A, B, C and so forth.
 Venn diagrams showing the actual outcomes
When rolling a die, if A is the event in which the die lands
on an even number, then A = {2 ; 4 ; 6} .  Venn diagrams showing the number of outcomes
We use a special diagram, called a Venn diagram to
represent events in a sample space.
 Venn diagrams showing probabilities
The sample space is represented by a rectangle and the
events by circles inside the rectangle.
Example 3

A die is rolled. Let A be the event in which the

die lands on an even number. Draw a Venn
diagram showing the:

(a) outcomes The number of outcomes are shown. The number

3 for there being 3 even numbers is written inside
(b) number of outcomes the circle and the number 3 for there being 3 odd
numbers is written outside of the circle.

(c) probabilities

1
The probability of getting an even number is 2
The actual outcomes are shown. The three even This is written inside the circle.
numbers 2, 4 and 6 are written in the circle with the
odd numbers 1, 3, and 5 on the outside of the circle. 1
The outside the circle is for the odd numbers.
2
Example 4

A 12-sided dodecahedral die is rolled.

The following events are defined:

A = {multiples of 3}

B = {factors of 9}

C = {multiples of 5}

(a) List the outcomes in set form.

(b) Draw a Venn diagram to represent these events.
(c) Determine P(A) , P(B) and P(C) .
The intersection of events

The intersection of two events, event A and event B, is

the event consisting of all outcomes that are in both A
and B simultaneously.

We write this intersection of event A and event B

as A and B, which can also be written as 𝐀 ∩ 𝐁

For example, if you roll a die and A is the event in which

the die lands on an even number and B is the event that
the die lands on a prime number, then:

A = {2 ; 4 ; 6}

B = {2 ; 3 ; 5}

A and B = {2}
The union of events

The union of two events, event A and event B, is the event

consisting of all outcomes that are in at least one of these
events.

The union consists of outcomes that are either in A,

or in B, or in both.

This basically means that we put all of the outcomes of A and B

together by uniting them into one big set.

We write the union of event A and event B as

A or B . This can also be written as 𝐀 ∪ 𝐁

For example, if you roll a die and A is the event in

which the die lands on an even number and B is the event that
the die lands on a prime number, then:
A = {2 ; 4 ; 6}
B = {2 ; 3 ; 5}
A or B = {2 ; 3 ; 4 ; 5 ; 6}
The complement of an event

The complement of an event A is the event consisting of

all outcomes that are in the sample space, but not in A.

We write the complement of A as not A. The symbol is A′.

For example, if you roll a die and A is the event in which

the die lands on an even number, then:

S = {1; 2 ; 3 ; 4 ; 5 ; 6}

A = {2 ; 4 ; 6}

not A = {1 ; 3 ; 5}
Example 5

In a certain experiment, the sample space is:

S = {a ; b ; c ; d ; e ; f ; g ; h} .

Events A and B are defined as follows:

A = {a ; b ; c ; d ; e}

B = {d ; e ; f ; g ; h}

(a) Represent all of the outcomes in a Venn diagram.

(b) List the outcomes in:

(1) not A (2) A and B (3) A or B

(c) What is the value of:

(1) n(not A) (2) n(A and B) (3) n(A or B)

Probability Law These are some notations that we use in probability questions:

The Probability law (also called the sum rule or addition  P(A) means the probability of event A happening.
rule) for any TWO events, A and B is:
 P(A′. ) means the probability of event A not happening.

𝐏(𝐀 𝐨𝐫 𝐁) = 𝐏 𝐀 + 𝐏 𝐁 − 𝐏(𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁)  P(A ∩ B) means the probability of event A and event B
happening.
This rule relates the probabilities of two events with the
 P(A ∪ B) means the probability of event A or event B
probabilities of their union and intersection. happening.
2014 Gauteng Preliminary Paper 1 Q 13.1
Tebogo writes an Art and a Music examination. He has
40% chance of passing the Music examination, 60%
chance of passing the Art examination and 30% chance
of passing both the Music and Art examination.
Calculate the probability that Tebogo will pass the Music
or Art examination. (3)
Independent Events If Event A and Event B are independent, then the
Independent events are events where the outcome of the multiplication law for probability only holds for these
second event is not affected by the outcomes of the first independent events.
event. Examples of such events are:
The multiplication law is often called the ‘and law’. It gives
 When drawing a card from one pack and a card from the probability that one event AND another happens.
another pack, the two events are independent of each
other. The possibilities of drawing whichever card is
drawn from the first pack will not be affected by the card If A and B are independent events, then:
that is drawn from the second pack.

 When you toss a coin and throw a dice. The number 𝐏 𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁 = 𝐏 𝐀 × 𝐏(𝐁)
that you throw on the dice is not dependent on whether
you get heads or tails on the coin. Thus, the two events
are independent

 A marble is chosen from a bag that contains 2 green and

5 yellow marbles, and then replaced. If a second marble
is then chosen at random, the possibilities of its colour
does not depend on the colour of the first marble
removed
2015 November Paper 1 Q 11.1
For two events, A and B, it is given that:
P A = 0.2
P B = 0.63
P A and B = 0.126
Are the events, A and B independent? Justify your answer with
appropriate calculations. (3)

2016 November Paper 1 Q 9.1

Given that:
P A = 0.2
P B = 0.5
P A or B = 0.6
A and B are two different events
9.1.1 Calculate P A and B (2)
9.1.2 Are the events, A and B independent? calculations. (3)
Dependent

Dependent events are events that are not

independent.

The probabilities of dependent events do affect each

other.

For example, if you select a card from a pack of playing

cards and then randomly select another card without
replacing the first card these events are dependent
events.
Mutually exclusive events Mutually exclusive sets are disjoint sets.
If event A and event B ARE mutually exclusive, then:
Mutually exclusive events are events that have no
intersection or overlap, so it is impossible for them to both  𝐏 𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁 = 𝟎
occur..  𝐏 𝐀 𝐨𝐫 𝐁 = 𝐏 𝐀 + 𝐏(𝐁)
The events have no outcomes in common.

Mutually exclusive events can never occur simultaneously.

Examples of such events are:
 The event that a number is even and the event that the
same number is odd are mutually exclusive, since a
number can never be both even and odd.
 Taking a 4 and taking a 7 from a pack of cards are
mutually exclusive because a card cannot be a 4 and a 7
at the same time.
Example 6

The events A and B are mutually exclusive such that

P B = 4P A and P A ∪ B = 0.65 . Find P B .

2014 Exemplar Paper 1 Q 11.1

Events A and B are mutually exclusive. It is given that:

• P B = 2P(A)
• P A or B = 0.57
Calculate P B . (3)
Complementary events

Events that are mutually exclusive and make up the

whole sample space are called complementary events.

For an event called A, we write the complement as “not

A”.

Another way of writing the complement is as A′.

If an event A occurs 70% of the time, it will fail to occur

30% of the time
2016 Eastern Cape Preliminary Paper 1 Q 12.1
A and B are mutually exclusive events. If it is given that
the P A = 0.35 and P B = 0.52 . Determine:
12.1.1 P A′ (2)
12.1.2 P A and B (1)
12.1.3 P A or B (2)
2023 Gauteng November Paper 1 Q 10.1

10.1 The events A, B and C are such:

• A and B are independent.

• B and C are independent.
• A and C are mutually exclusive.
• Their probabilities are P(A) = 0,3 , P(B) = 0,4 and P(C) = 0,2.

Calculate the probability of the following events occurring:

10.1.1 Both A and C occur. (1)

10.1.2 Both B and C occur. (2)
10.1.3 At least ONE of A or B occurs. (4)
2018 November Paper 1 Q 9
PROBABILITY PART 2
Tree Diagrams
As an example, suppose one tosses a coin twice, a tree
When listing the combined outcomes of two or more activities,
diagram can find all the possible combinations of the
drawing a tree diagram is often the easiest method to use.
tosses as shown below:

Tree diagrams have branches, which show the possible

outcomes of multiple types of events.

A tree diagram allows you to show how each possible outcome

of one event affects the probabilities of the other events.

For each possible outcome of the first event, we draw a line

where we write down the probability of that outcome and the
state of the world if that outcome happened.

Then, for each possible outcome of the second event, we do

the same thing.
Events with replacement:
In some situations, we work with probabilities where
object is replaced before being selected again.

For example:

A bag contains 4 red and 2 blue balls. A ball is drawn at

random and then replaced. A second ball is then drawn
at random.

The tree diagram show all the possible outcomes would

look like this:
Events without replacement
In some situations, we need to be able to work out
probabilities when there is no replacement.

For example:
A jar consists of 21 sweets. 12 are green and 9 are
blue. Mark picked two sweets at random and did NOT
replace them. This means that the first sweet is not
returned to the jar before the second sweet is
selected.

The tree diagram for such would look as follows:

Example 7

A box contains three blue smarties and two green smarties. A

smartie is drawn at random and then replaced in the box.
Another smartie is then drawn at random and replaced in the
box.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the above information
Determine the probability of:
(b) first drawing a blue smartie and then a green smartie.
(c) first drawing a green smartie and then a blue smartie.
(d) drawing a blue smartie and then another blue smartie.
(e) not drawing a blue smartie on the first or second draw.
(f) drawing a blue and then a green or a green and then a blue
Example 8

Bag A contains 3 red marbles and 2 white marbles. Bag B

contains 5 red marbles and 4 white marbles. A bag is chosen
at random and then a marble is chosen from
that bag and then replaced in the bag.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the above information
(b) Determine the probability of getting a red marble.
(c) Determine the probability of getting a white marble.
2019 Eastern Cape Exemplar Paper 1 Q 8.1

8.1 A bag contains 3 red and 5 yellow tennis balls. A player

picks a ball at random, observes the colour and does not
replace it. She then picks a second ball.

8.1.1 Draw a tree diagram to represent the above information,

showing all possible outcomes. (5)

8.1.2 Determine the probability that the player picks balls of a

different colour. (4)
2016 November Paper 1 Q 9.3
2010 March Paper 3 Q 5
At a school for boys there are 240 learners in Grade 12. The
following information was gathered about participation in
school sport.
122 boys play rugby (R)
58 boys play basketball (B)
96 boys play cricket (C)
16 boys play all three sports
22 boys play rugby and basketball
26 boys play cricket and basketball
26 boys do not play any of these sports
Let the number of learners who play rugby and cricket
only be 𝑥.
5.1 Draw a Venn diagram to represent the above
Information (4)
CONTINUED………
5.2 Determine the number of boys who
play rugby and cricket. (3)
5.3 Determine the probability that a learner in Grade 12
selected at random:
(Leave your answer correct to THREE decimal places.)
5.3.1 only plays basketball. (2)
5.3.2 does not play cricket. (2)
5.3.3 participates in at least two of these sports. (2)
2017 November Paper 1 Q 10 10.2 Calculate the value of 𝑥. (2)
A survey was conducted among 100 Grade 12 learners 10.2 Calculate the probability that a learner choses
about their use of Instagram (I), Twitter (T) and WhatsApp randomly, uses only ONE of these applications. (2)
(W) on their cell phones. The survey revealed the
following:
 8 use all three
 12 use Instagram and Twitter.
 5 use Twitter and WhatsApp, but not Instagram
 𝑥 use Instagram and WhatsApp, but not Twitter.
 61 use Instagram
 19 use Twitter
 73 use WhatsApp
 14 use none of these applications.
10.1 Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the information
above. (4)
2010 November Paper 3 Q 1

A school organised a camp for their 103 Grade 12 learners. The learners
were asked to indicate their food preferences for the camp. They had to
choose from chicken, vegetables and fish.

The following information was collected:

• 2 learners do not eat chicken, fish or vegetables

• 5 learners eat only vegetables
• 2 learners only eat chicken
• 21 learners do not eat fish
• 3 learners eat only fish
• 66 learners eat chicken and fish
• 75 learners eat vegetables and fish
Let the number of learners who eat chicken,
vegetables and fish be 𝑥.
1.1 Draw an appropriate Venn diagram to represent the information. (7)
CONTINUED………..
1.2 Calculate 𝑥. (2)
1.3 Calculate the probability that a learner,
chosen at random:
1.3.1 Eats only chicken and fish, and no vegetables. (2)
1.3.2 Eats any TWO of the given food choices: chicken,
vegetables and fish. (2)
2019 Eastern Cape Exemplar Paper 1 Q 8.2

The probability that South Africa reaches the finals of the 2019
Rugby World Cup is 0,35 and the probability that New Zealand
reaches the finals is 0,5. The probability that neither South
Africa nor New Zealand reaches the final is 0,06.

8.2.1 Draw a Venn diagram to represent the information

above. (3)

8.2.2 Determine the probability that both South Africa and

New Zealand reach the finals. (2)
2016 June Gauteng Paper 1 Q 11.2

Study the Venn diagram below.

A and B are independent events.

Determine the values of 𝑥 and 𝑦.

(Show all your calculations) (5)
PAST EXAM
PRACTISE
QUESTIONS
2023 Gauteng November Paper 1 Q 9

Jeremy enters the quiz show, "WHO WANTS TO BE A

MILLIONAIRE?" The objective is to answer consecutive
questions correctly in order to win one million rand. A
contestant’s turn ends when a question is answered
INCORRECTLY. Contestants may choose to answer the questions
themselves or use a lifeline for assistance. A lifeline may only be
used ONCE and it must be used within the first 3 rounds of
questions. On the first attempt:
• The probability that Jeremy answers the question
Correctly (C) on his own is 0,7.
• The probability that Jeremy answers the question
Incorrectly (I) is 0,1.
• The probability that Jeremy uses a Lifeline (L) is 0,2.
• If Jeremy uses a lifeline, the probability that the lifeline
produces the correct answer is 0,9.
9.1 Draw tree diagrams to represent the given information
for 2 rounds of questions. (2)
9.2 Determine the probability that Jeremy will,
unassisted, answer the first TWO questions correctly. (2)
9.3 Determine the probability that Jeremy answers the FIRST
question correctly. (3
2023 KwaZulu Natal November Paper 1 Q 9.2
2018 November Paper 1 Q 8
2020 Eastern Cape November Paper 1 Q 9.1
2020 Eastern Cape November Paper 1 Q 10
2009 March Paper 3 Q 4.2
There are 20 boys and 15 girls in a class. The teacher chooses
individual learners at random to deliver a speech.
4.2.1 Calculate the probability that the first learner chosen is a
boy. (1)
4.2.2 Draw a tree diagram to represent the situation if the
teacher chooses three learners, one after the other. Indicate on
your diagram ALL possible outcomes. (4)
4.2.3 Calculate the probability that a boy, then a girl and then
another boy is chosen in that order. (3)
4.2.4 Calculate the probability that all three learners chosen
are girls. (2)
4.2.5 Calculate the probability that at least one of the learners
chosen is a boy. (3)