SURFACE WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR ABAYA-CHAMO SUBBASIN USING WEAP MODEL, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIAN RIFT VALLEY Eyerus Nigussie

ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY
ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
SURFACE WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR ABAYA-CHAMO SUB-

BASIN USING WEAP MODEL, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIAN RIFT VALLEY
A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfilment of

the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering.
(Major Hydraulic Engineering)
By
Eyerus Nigussie
Advisor: Fiseha Behulu (PhD.)
Sep, 2021
Surface Water Resource Allocation for Abaya-Chamo sub-basin
Addis Ababa Institute Technology
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
This is to certify that the thesis prepared by Eyerus Nigussie, entitled “SURFACE WATER
RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR ABAYA-CHAMO SUB-BASIN USING WEAP
MODEL, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIAN RIFT VALLEY” and submitted in partial fulfillment of
the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science (MSc) in Civil and Environmental
Engineering (Hydraulic Engineering Major) compiles with the regulations of the university and
meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality.
Approval by Board of Examiners
Dr. Fiseha Behulu ---------------------------- ______________
Advisor Signature Date
-------------------------------------- -------------------------- ---------------
Internal Examiner Signature Date
----------------------------------------- --------------------------- ----------------
External Examiner Signature Date
---------------------------------------- --------------------------- -------------
Chairperson Signature Date
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
My deepest appreciation goes to my Advisor Fiseha Behulu (PhD) of Addis Ababa University,
Addis Ababa Institute of technology school of civil and environmental engineering for his
encouragement, advice, support and, his valuable guidance throughout this study and, all his
contribution through materials supports.
I would like to acknowledge the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity (MoWIE)
particularly hydrology, GIS department, and Library; the Ethiopia Meteorological Service and
also Water and Land Management which is Addis Ababa University’s Research office.
And also, I would like gratefully to acknowledge the Ministry of Education and Wachemo
University for the sponsorship I have been taken for this program.
Lastly, my appreciation goes to Markos Abiy who helped me on WEAP model, my fiancé
Selam Mehari , my family and my special friends, without your support I will not able to
achieve my dream. Thank you for your support and encouragements.
Above all, sincere thanks go to the Almighty God with St Mary for making this thesis to be
successful. This day what God have done for me is really beyond what I can imagine and I
have dreamt. Indeed, thanks for everything you have been doing for me.
MSc. Thesis Page iii

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ABSTRACT
The development of water resource projects, population growth, and increase in irrigation
areas has a higher effect on excessive usage of water resources and causes exploitation of the
existing river systems and ecosystem of the natural environment. Therefore, water allocation
study is essential to maintain the ecosystem and to balance the water demand with the supply
in the catchment.
In the present study, the allocation of surface water resource carried out in Bilate watershed,
in Abaya-Chamo sub-basin of Ethiopian Rift Valley Lake Basin. The necessary data used to
define the hydrology of study area are: DEM, LULC and soil data, climatic and stream flow
data. The main aim of this study is, quantifying the available surface water of the Bilate
watershed and allocation to the required demand sites of different activities. There are 25
demand nodes used to estimate water requirements in the study area. This demand sites are
domestic demand for urban and rural towns, livestock water demand and irrigation water
demand. In addition, to quantify the water available in the catchment, soil moisture method is
used for catchment simulation.
Three scenarios were developed to evaluate the effect of population growth and irrigation area
expansion on future water demand. The result of the study showed no unmet demand of water
requirement in the reference scenario from the years 1987 to 2020 for all cumulative demands
with annual water demand of 88 MCM. Under future population growth scenario (2020–2035),
the total water requirement demand for domestic , industrial, livestock and irrigation water
demand is 121MCM, 39MCM and 27 MCM with 8% unmet demand of total water requirement.
For the irrigation expansion scenario II, for mean monthly irrigation water demand of 26.37
MCM, 0.4 MCM of the total monthly irrigation demand is unmet in the analysis. Scenario III
(combination scenario) both population growth and irrigation expansion are considered and
analyzed. Based on the simulation results from the total demand of 188MCM, the total unmet
demand is found to be 9 MCM. Finally, the environmental flow requirement coverage of WEAP
out put shows some unmet instream flow requirement in October and November. Therefore, it
can be concluded that the occurrence of maximum water shortage in catchment will not
happened up to 2035 and also the future water resources development in Bilate sub-basin need
to be carefully designed to optimize the balance between demand and supply. More
importantly, basin level planning and catchment protection shall be taken as integral
component of water resources development.
Key words; - WEAP, Bilate sub-basin, supply and demand, scenario, water allocation
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENT ..................................................................................................................... iii
ABSTRAC ............................................................................................................................................. iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................................... v
LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................. v
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................ vii
INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................... 1
Background ............................................................................................................................. 1
Statement of the problem ........................................................................................................ 2
Objectives of the study............................................................................................................ 3
General objectives ........................................................................................................... 3
Specific objectives .......................................................................................................... 3
Research questions .................................................................................................................. 3
The Significance of the study.................................................................................................. 3
The Limitation of study........................................................................................................... 4
LITERATURE REVIEW............................................................................................................. 5
Review on water availability and demand assessment ........................................................... 5
Domestic water requirement ........................................................................................... 7
Water Requirement for Irrigation.................................................................................... 7
Water Requirement for Livestock ................................................................................... 8
Environmental (Instream) Flow Requirement ................................................................ 9
Review on surface water demand and its allocation ............................................................... 9
Review on Models used for Water allocation ....................................................................... 10
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model .......................................................... 11
Several Applications of WEAP model .......................................................................... 11
Features of WEAP Model ............................................................................................. 12
Rift Valley master plan - short review .................................................................................. 12
Domestic and Livestock water demand in RVLB......................................................... 13
Irrigation water demand in RVLB ................................................................................ 14
Hydropower water demand in RVLB ........................................................................... 14
Review on Water Resource Management Policy .................................................................. 14
Overview of associated investigations on water allocation by using WEAP model ............. 15
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MATERIAL AND METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... 17
Background ........................................................................................................................... 17
Physical Characteristics of the Basin ............................................................................ 19
Climate and Hydrology ................................................................................................. 20
Land Use and Land cover ............................................................................................. 21
.Geology ........................................................................................................................ 24
Soil ................................................................................................................................ 24
Population ..................................................................................................................... 25
Method used .......................................................................................................................... 26
Catchment Delineation.................................................................................................. 26
Data sources and Collection .......................................................................................... 28
Material used ......................................................................................................................... 28
Hydrological Data ......................................................................................................... 28
Meteorological Data ...................................................................................................... 29
Data Quality Controls ................................................................................................... 31
Calculation of Water Requirement ....................................................................................... 38
Water Demands Guidelines .......................................................................................... 38
Current Water Demands................................................................................................ 39
Future Water Demands................................................................................................. 40
Configuration of WEAP model..................................................................................... 41
Input Data to WEAP Model ........................................................................................... 43
Scenario Definition and Implementation ...................................................................... 44
Current Accounts Year.................................................................................................. 44
Reference Scenario ....................................................................................................... 45
Scenario I: High Population Growth Scenario .............................................................. 45
Scenario II: Irrigation Expansion Scenario .................................................................. 45
Scenario III: Combination Scenario (Population growth & irrigation expansion) ....... 46
Catchment Simulation Methods ............................................................................................ 46
Model Calibration ................................................................................................................. 47
Model validation ................................................................................................................... 48
Model Performance Evaluation ............................................................................................ 48
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................... 50
Results of WEAP Model ....................................................................................................... 50
The output of calibration and validation .............................................................................. 51
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Calibration Result ......................................................................................................... 51
Validation Result.......................................................................................................... 54
Water Demand for Current and Future scenarios ................................................................. 55
WEAP Model Scenario Results ............................................................................................ 56
Reference Scenario ....................................................................................................... 56
Scenario I Population growth scenario (2020-2035) .................................................... 61
Scenario II Irrigation Expansion scenario ..................................................................... 63
Scenario III population growth & Irrigation Expansion Scenario (Combination) .......... 67
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ........................................................................ 70
Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 70
Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 72
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 73
APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................................... 77
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Location map of the Abaya-Chamo Sub-basin ....................................................................... 18
Figure 2: Digital Elevation Model map of the Bilate Watershed.......................................................... 19
Figure 3: Annual Rainfall of each station in the catchment .................................................................. 20
Figure 4: Land cover land use map of Bilate River .............................................................................. 23
Figure 5: Soil map of Bilate watershed ................................................................................................. 25
Figure 6: Bilate catchment delineation ................................................................................................. 27
Figure 7: Stream flow gauge stations of Bilate watershed .................................................................... 29
Figure 8: Meteorological station in Bilate river catchment .................................................................. 30
Figure 9: Consistency Test for Bilate, Hossana, Fonko, Boditi, Bilate Tena, and Alaba metrological
stations .................................................................................................................................................. 34
Figure 10: Meteorological station in Bilate river catchment ................................................................ 35
Figure 11: Areal rainfall of Bilate watershed........................................................................................ 36
Figure 12: Monthly mean areal rainfall of sub-catch ............................................................................ 37
Figure 13: Schematic representation of WEAP model and Demand nodes .......................................... 42
Figure 14: Concept of soil moisture and equations (source: WEAP User Manual).............................. 47
Figure 15: Calibration result of Alaba Kulito Gauge station ............................................................... 52
Figure 16: Calibration result of Bilate Tena Gauge station ................................................................. 52
Figure 17: Monthly Mean Calibration Result of Alaba Kulito gauging station................................... 53
Figure 18: Monthly Mean Calibration Result of Bilate Tena gauging station ...................................... 53
Figure 19: Validation result of Alaba kulito Gauging Station .............................................................. 54
Figure 20: Validation result of Bilate Tena Gauging Station ............................................................... 55
Figure 21: water demand for domestic ................................................................................................. 57
Figure 22:Supply delivered for Livestock ............................................................................................ 58
Figure 23: Monthly average Current irrigation water demands (without including losses) ................. 60
Figure 24: Monthly Supply delivered for all irrigation demand site ..................................................... 61
Figure 25: Domestic water demand with respect to reference scenario ................................................ 62
Figure 26: Livestock water demand with respect to reference scenario ............................................... 62
Figure 27: water demand of irrigation expansion scenario with respect to reference scenario ............ 64
Figure 28: Mean monthly supply delivered for all irrigation sites........................................................ 66
Figure 29: Annual water requirement without loss and reuse of all demand site ................................. 67
Figure 30: Supply delivered for all demand sites in all scenarios......................................................... 68
Figure 31: unmet of all demand site all in all scenarios ....................................................................... 68
Figure 32: monthly Instream flow requirement .................................................................................... 69
Figure 33: Met instream flow requirement all demand sites in Combination vs Reference scenario ... 69
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Percentage of Land use Land cover used in WEAP model ....................................... 22
Table 2: Stream flow gauging station in Bilate watershed ...................................................... 29
Table 3: Selected Rainfall stations with in Bilate watershed ................................................... 31
Table 4: Mean Monthly Areal Rainfall of the sub-basin (mm) .............................................. 37
Table 5 Percapita water demand for each category of towns/cities ......................................... 39
Table 6: Given priority levels for different demand ................................................................ 40
Table 7: Current and future forecasted population data in Bilate ............................................ 43
Table 8: Methods of Calibration parameters in allowable ranges ........................................... 50
Table 9 Calibration parameter values used in upstream and downstream catchments ............ 50
Table 10: Summaries of statistical performance between modelled and gauged stream flow 53
Table 11: Summaries of statistical performance between modelled and gauged stream flow 55
Table 12: Livestock water demand (Source: International Livestock Research Institute,
Ethiopia, and FAO) .................................................................................................................. 56
Table 13: Domestic and Livestock water requirement in current and future scenarios........... 56
Table 14: Irrigation Water Requirements at different in current and future scenarios ............ 56
Table 15 : water demand on reference scenario....................................................................... 57
Table 16: Supply delivered domestic & industrial water requirement in current account ...... 58
Table 18: Monthly average irrigation water demand for each site in current scenario
(Thousand m3) (1987-2020)..................................................................................................... 59
Table 19: Monthly average supplies delivered for Irrigation demand site in current scenario 60
Table 20: Mean monthly unmet demands for each demand site (Thousand m3) on current
scenario. ................................................................................................................................... 61
Table 21: Supply delivered for domestic and livestock .......................................................... 63
Table 22: Mean monthly irrigation water demand (Thousand cumecs) .................................. 64
Table 23: Mean monthly Supply delivered in thousand cubic meter ...................................... 65
Table 24: Mean monthly unmet demand of all irrigation sites (Thousand cubic meter) ......... 66
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AEZ Agro Ecological Zone

Amsl above mean sea level
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
LU Livestock unit
GIS Geographic Information System
EFR Environmental Flow Requirement
GTP Growth and Transformation Plan
Ha Hectare
Kc Crop coefficient
Kms Kilometers
m Meter
M3/s Meter Cube per Second
MCM Million Cubic Meter
Mm3 Million meter cube
MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy
NMSA National Metrological Service Agency
NSE Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency
R2 Correlation Coefficient
RVLB Rift Valley Lake Basin
SEI Stockholm Environment Institute
SNNPRS Southern Nations Nationalities and People Regional State
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
UNESCO
Organization
WEAP Water Evaluation And Planning
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INTRODUCTION
Background
The increase in demands for water resources will make its allocation to be challenging in the
near future. Water consumption has increased about seven-fold since the beginning of the
twentieth century (Shumet, 2016).This challenge is more pronounced for developing countries,
especially in Ethiopia, because of rapid industrialization and continuously increasing demands.
Municipal water needs of water for daily domestic consumption and agriculture requirement
become increasing contrary to the available supplies. Some researchers (Liu, 2019; Han, 2013)
have suggested various indicators, methods and models that used to allocate water resources in
an optimum manner.
In order to meet all water requirement and balance the demand with the supply, efficient use
of surface water, development of water allocation plan and management is necessary. Since
surface water is the primary source of water, assessment of water potential and availability as
well as the requirement plays a great role in increasing productivity of agriculture, improving
traditional water management system, meet drinking water requirement and hydropower
generation in the coming future.
The present study aims an integrated approach to water allocation for Abaya-Chamo sub basin,
which is located in the main rift valley of southern Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Rift Valley Lake
basin is situated in the administrative regions of Oromiya and the Southern Nations
Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR). According to Bekele (2001), the area of Abaya-
Chamo sub-basin covers 18,600 km² while about 5500 Km2 of which form the part of the area
used for this study. Bilate River is used to be an important source for food, domestic water
supply, agriculture, wildlife, water for livestock and grazing. This makes the issue of water
resources very critical and effective water management is at its high demanding stage in the
basin. In Ethiopia, where agriculture serves as a backbone of the economy as well as ensures
the wellbeing of the people; the availability of water resources in the basins is quite necessary.
Bilate river catchment is one of such basins located in the south-central Ethiopia. It emerges
from the south western slopes of mount Gurage near 6°2′N 38°7′E, flowing south along the
western side of the Great Rift Valley, to Lake Abaya at 6°37′54″N 37°59′6″E. The river is not
navigable and has four tributaries but not notable.
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In Bilate catchment, due to expansion of future planned irrigation area and population growth,
possibility of larger water shortages in the future will be unequivocal. Therefore, providing
prior resource evaluation mechanisms and allocating water is very crucial. Surface water
allocation should have to be prepared for effective water resource management and to share for
downstream users in appropriate manner. Integrated water resource management policies
concerns on the correlation of water use and user to reduce the probability of greater water
shortage in the future. To address these needs, it is paramount important to assess the impact
of irrigation expansion and population growth on available water resources in the upper sub-
basin of the Bilate catchment using a decision support system known as the Water Evaluation
and Planning (WEAP) Model.
WEAP model is one of the useful and commonly applied tools for the integrated water
resources management and water allocation. It is used as a database, forecasting and as a policy
analysis tool, depending on the focus of the study. In this regard, the applicability of WEAP
was thoroughly explored fore water allocation to balance domestic water demand, irrigation
demand and environmental flow with the supply source of Bilate catchment.
Statement of the problem
In the global context, water is considered to be the oil of the 21st century where there is huge
competition on the resource abstraction. As such, the ever-increasing population, which
virtually imposes stress on the water resource brought the issue to be more pronounced even at
the local scale. Basin level impacts are mostly pressing due to improper land use, deforestation
and associated degradation of land and soil nutrients that may further impact downstream
sedimentation in reservoirs.
The Abaya Chamo sub-basin is one of the sub-basins in the rift valley lake basins of Ethiopia
that experienced the shortage of renewable water for human use. More specifically, the Bilate
watershed in Abaya-Chamo sub-basin is facing high computing demand in terms of water use
for different purposes that impose serious impact on the downstream environments. As a result
of the aforementioned competing demands, the entire river system there is a local inter-regional
conflict expected in the near future. Moreover, there is no holistic and integrated watershed
management practices in place that can assist as a decision support tool. On the other hand, the
water abstraction from the system is still functioning without proper basin plan. In order to
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solve such impacts, water allocation should be done so as to balance the demand and supply
side and also avoid degradation of the basin.
Objectives of the study
General objectives
The main objective of the study was to develop effective water allocation system for Bilate
catchment using WEAP model as a decision support tool.
Specific objectives
 To quantify the available surface water resource of the Bilate watershed in the Abaya-
Chamo sub-basin;
 To analyse the amount of water requirement for different users. Such as:- domestic
with (industrial, institutional and commercial), irrigation, livestock and environmental
flow requirement.
 To evaluate the balance of Bilate catchment water demands and supplement regarding
with their priority levels in current and future scenario;
Research questions
 What is the amount of mean annual runoff available in Bilate River?

 How much water is required for different activities at downstream of the catchment?
 What techniques will be used to fairly distribute current and future water demand
allocation?
The Significance of the study
The significance of the study is linked with the main objective, which is focused to propose
effective water allocation plans with the help of Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model
for the simulation of water demand and supply system for domestic, irrigation and
environmental flow of Bilate watershed. This aims to maintain the water quality, to prevent
soil erosion, to recover the polluted lakes, to protect ecological systems, and to enhance
availability of water
In the end, this paper contains lists of references that were used during the study and
appendixes, which contains some tables, computer outputs, and data used in this research.
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The Limitation of study
The range of this research has been limited to allocate surface water resource for various
requirements including irrigation, domestic, industrial, livestock and instream flow
requirement with respect to different priority levels in consideration on the factors that affect
surface water quantity, demand and supply. Aiming at the objective, this study did not take into
account groundwater as a supply source and the effect of climate change, which may happen
under future scenarios.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
Water is the paramount resource of a country and the entire community as a whole, since no
life to be convincible without water. The availability of water largely determines the spatial
pattern of the Earth's terrestrial biomes (forest, grasslands and deserts) because it covers 71%
of the Earth's surface providing habitat for fresh and saltwater ecosystems. Garg (2005) states,
water is a major controlling element of the Earth's climate, and it is water that is largely
responsible for sculpting the Earth's surface into the" infinitely complex associations of erosion
and depositional landforms.
Now a day, water is a limiting and critical resource for society and countries development, and
projection of population growth as well as changes in life style suggest the water demand to
increase significantly. These projections have energized mission among water resources
management, adequacy of future water supplies, the sustainability and preservation of aquatic
ecosystems, and the viability of the current water resource research programs and institutional
and physical water resource infrastructure.
The water accessibility and its requirements are an outcome of the total flow of a catchment,
since its amount, characteristics and structure, economic factors, laws and regulations control
its use. Because water availability and water demand are closely linked. Surface water is water
that is open to the atmosphere and lie on the Earth's surface, such as in a stream, river, lake, or
reservoir. In addition to this, surface water is a precious resource that can be used for domestic,
industrial and agricultural, commercial and hydroelectric power supply purposes. Therefore,
understanding surface water resources is a key aspect of integrated water resurce assessment,
evaluation and planning.
To determine the available water in the catchment, understanding the hydrological
characteristic of the watershed and interaction with the environment to be able to determine the
inflow and out flow is essential. The necessary data to understand hydrology of watershed are
rainfall, runoff, temperature and evaporation.
Review on water availability and demand assessment
According to Dermawan (2018) the demand for water resources of sufficient quantity and
quality for human consumption, sanitation, agriculture, and industrial uses will continue to
MSc. Thesis Page 5

intensify as the population increases and global urbanization, industrialization, and commercial
development accelerate. Water demands predicting is also a process achieved through several
techniques and is typically used to predict future water needs for different uses including
hydropower, domestic, and agricultural water demands. The type of technique used depends
on the availability of the data needed, the general scope of the region for which the forecast is
being conducted, and the resources available to the organization for which the forecast is being
conducted. Essentially, future water demand is derived from basic functions. For example,
municipal demand is generally projected using population size and the number of households,
industrial demand is often based on the number of employees, and agricultural demand
commonly relies on crop type and irrigated land (Dale Whittington, 2010). Water demand is
an important technical design parameter. It can be measured (for an existing project scheme)
or calculated using local data or more typically, established norms and Standards. Such
calculations also take into account the number and type of users to be served, the anticipated
population growth rate and the expected life span of the infrastructure being provided. It is also
important to take into account the seasonal influence on water demand.
Integrated management water needs consideration of current and future water resource
availability. It involves a simulation of water demand and supply for agriculture, hydropower
production, domestic sector, and the industrial sector. There are various models that can be
used for appropriate water sharing based on resource availability. We have also two categories
of water allocation models. These are simulations and optimizations models. Simulation-based
water sharing models are used mass balance principles for the water allocation in a river
watershed.
In order to manage water resources properly, many computer-based Decision Support Systems
are being used in worldwide. Allocation of water demand in a given catchment is very
important as discussed depending upon the model availability, capability and suitability to
design water demand and supply with in the study area (Bilate sub-basin). Actually, there are
various models capable for water allocation in a given catchment. The relevant models which
are commonly used for water allocation all over the world are presented here to reach at a
conclusion that WEAP model was selected as the best suitable to model the water demand in
the study area.
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Water demand can be assessed considering either of the following categories:
 Domestic water demand for households (Urban and Rural)

 Institutional water demand for public and private offices, agencies and institutions
 Livestock water demand
 Instream flow requirement
Domestic water requirement

The domestic water requirement of the study area was determined based on the Population size
(number) within the study area and the Per capita water consumption based on level of
development (urbanization) and type of supply. The estimation of water demand for domestic
use at a catchment level of rural areas in Ethiopia face many problems due to lack of available
measured data. There are two methods to determine rural domestic water needs, the first
methods is used by calculating the quantity of consumed water based on the population level
and water demand in terms of percapita consumption and it is known as indirect method. The
second one uses the socio-economic surveys and participatory techniques involving the
relevant stakeholders and estimate the current and future rural water demand and it is known
as direct method.
The estimation of rural water requirement is difficult due to many reasons such as, majority of
rural domestic water supply systems are unmetered; data concerning domestic rural water need
is often expensive and time consuming to collect and the level of service provided by the water
supply system is often unknown. For catchment management purposes, indirect methods are
the most appropriate for establishing rural domestic water demand and use. For my thesis,
indirect method is used to estimate rural water requirement and it is the most practical method
for demand estimation on a sub-catchment and catchment basis.
Water Requirement for Irrigation
The main goal of irrigation is providing adequate water for crops in order to get optimum yield
and best quality of harvested product. The time and amount of water required is estimated by
soil properties such as; water retention capacities, crop and its growth stage and extent root
growing. (Dr. Derrel L. Martin, 1993)
Crop water use rate should be accurately estimated for irrigation schedules and irrigation water
requirement. The estimation of Daily and weekly crop water use rate are needed to schedule
MSc. Thesis Page 7

irrigations, while longer term estimation are needed to specify the irrigation, storage, and
conveyance system capacities. Annual water use rate is often required to size irrigation
reservoirs and establish water rights.
Determination of crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and net irrigation water requirements are
critical for water allocation, risk management and irrigation system planning. (Bennetta,
Harms, & Entz, 2013).
Based to the RVLB master plan, there is around 8000 ha of irrigation schemes on my study
area. But, not fully implemented for the main crops such as maize, cotton, and vegetables.
Therefore, irrigation water demand was determined by using the WEAP model by using the
total command area and crop water demand per hectare of land to be irrigated.
Water Requirement for Livestock
Water is a vital for livestock health and production. Water requirements for livestock can be
determined depending on species, breed, age, growth rate, production status, activity, feed type
and weather. Climatic factors, such as temperature highly affect the water requirement and
intake. The estimation of water requirements for livestock species (taking into account
physiological status and environmental conditions) can be obtained from standard scientific
guidelines detailing the nutrient requirements of a given species (FAO, 2019).
According to (Zinash), the estimated livestock population is about 35 million TLU (total
livestock unit) in Ethiopia. The total livestock unit is assumed as an average consumption of
25 litres of water/day per TLU, and the daily water consumption is estimated about 875 million
litres. This adds up to about 320 billion litres annually and the water requirement then expected
to increase with the increase in livestock population and envisaged improvement in
productivity (milk, meat, eggs).The water demands of sheep, goats and camels are not as high
as those of cattle. The amount of water requirement depends up on growth, and productive
processes such as lactation and egg laying. Because lactating cows take more water. Water
requirements also largely vary according to other factors such as food intake, quality of the
food and air and water temperature.
In the study area, there are no recent counts of livestock population density. The pastoralists
are moving with their large herds of cattle and other livestock to Bilate River to find water and
food.
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Environmental (Instream) Flow Requirement
Environmental flow or release is the amount of water allocated from the conservation section
of the catchment for downstream users to maintain the morphology of the river route. This is
incorporated with its own independent out let structure, which will be operational. This demand
particularly should be given due consideration especially for irrigation dams and hydropower
dams for which the tailrace is far from the dam. However fixing the numeric value of the
discharge required, needs detail Environmental impact analysis for the thesis.
Environmental flow is important to coordinate upstream-downstream water allocations in order
to maintain healthy ecosystems. In the absence of environmental flow, communities risk losing
economic and environmental security. Environmental flow provide the means for integrated
management of river flows to meet the needs of people, agriculture, industry, energy and
ecosystems within the limits of available supply and under a changing climate (IUCN).
Generally, the environmental or Instream flow requirement assigned to give an answer for, how
much of the original flow regime of a river should continue to flow down in order to maintain
the river ecosystem in a prescribed state.
Integrated water resources management, planning and allocation are most critical elements of
EFR. The environmental flow in this study taken as a suitable percentage of mean annual
runoff, where streamflow is required at a point on a river to meet the different ecosystem related
water demands to maintain river water quality, fish, and wildlife, etc. The outflow of Bilate
River enters to Lake Abaya. Therefore, proper percentage that will be necessary for Bilate river
flow should be conserved to maintain its ecosystem the water level in Lake Abaya.
Review on surface water demand and its allocation

Surface water allocation for human and environmental activities needs to be considered and it
can be defined as a process which systematically divides the amount of available water in the
system for different regions and competing users (OECD, 2015), such as agricultural, domestic,
industrial, and environmental components. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration accumulates
in a catchment and flows to streams and recharges to aquifers.
Surface water allocation planning and management is typically undertaken, to achieve a series
of overarching policy objectives. In many rules including (Speed, 2013)
 Equal distribution (allocation) of water among various user groups and regions.
MSc. Thesis Page 9

 Allocating water recognizing fresh water-water dependant ecosystem and

environmental water need.
 Water allocation should balance the water supply with the demand in order to manage
variation of water availability.
 Development priorities such as supporting social and economic development.
 Allocating water by promoting efficient use of water available.
The water allocation of regional development and planning needs the incorporation of
economic objectives with many factors, including historical, technological, and natural and
resource constraints and potentials (Azazh, 2008).
Water allocation regarding with a priority helps to balance water requirement with supply. The
approaches of water management recognize that, different users will be given various levels of
priority and these is essential for development of watershed demands. Water demand allocation
Priority represents the distribution of limited resources by giving rank among multiple demand
sites. The priority for water demand should be fixed and resolved in allocation cycle of
catchment before the remaining water is shared among the catchment water user.Water
allocation priority is established by Government level.
Review on Models used for Water allocation

Water allocation models are classified into two groups. These are simulation and optimization
models. Linear and nonlinear programming models for coordinated hydro-economic modelling
have been utilized in numerous river. (Ringler, 2004). The optimization models determine the
optimum solution for a particular problem whereas; simulation models are widely used by
managers for planning and management of complex systems. Simulation based water
allocation models use mass balance principles to allocate resources in a river system, as in
MODSIM-DSS , (K. Jaiswal, 2008), MEQAA (Dermawan, 2018), WEAP (Yates D, 2005) etc.
HEC model also used in a wide range of geographic locations of large river basin to solve a
problem regarding with water supply and flood hydrology and small urban or natural watershed
runoff. It is also used in water allocation studies in the basins with high water demands (Azazh,
2008).
MSc. Thesis Page 10

Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model

WEAP model is a microcomputer tool of integrated water resource software created in 1988
by the Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI) with user-friendly, flexible and transparent
planning for assessment of current water demand and supply patterns and also, for designing
and evaluation of alternative scenarios. The demand sides are; domestic water need for urban
and rural site, livestock water need, irrigation water requirement and environmental flow water
requirement with the equation of equipment efficiencies, water use rate, re-use and allocation
whereas, supply side includes stream flow, catchment, reservoir and ground water.
WEAP model is very important software for planning, management and allocation of
constrained water resource and environmental quality.
WEAP is also graphically oriented with programing language software library that utilize Map
Objects from the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) which allows spatial
referencing of watershed attributes (e.g. river and groundwater systems, demand sites,
wastewater treatment plants, watershed, and river reach lengths). Several scenarios construct
WEAP model simulations, where simulation time steps can be as short as one day, to weekly,
to monthly, or even seasonally with a time horizon from as short as a single year to more than
100 years (Sieber J. Y., 2005).
Several Applications of WEAP model
The applications of WEAP model include several steps like;
 Setup of times steps and water resource system;
 Analysis of water resource, water demand and water supply;
 Design scenarios with respect to future policies, costs and techniques;
 Evaluate the scenarios of water requirement, delivered and unmet.
For the past last decades, WEAP models has been used for management of watershed as
worldwide (SEI, 2008).In Russia, WEAP model applied for water demand and supply
simulation on early 1992 and (Levite, 2003) used WEAP model for water allocation in water
stressed river basin in South Africa for the first time.
WEAP model has two primary functions (Sieber J. Y., 2005). Those are, simulation of natural
hydrological processes to assess the availability of water with in the catchments (e.g.
evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration) and simulation of anthropogenic activities
superimposed on the natural system to influence water resources and their allocation for
MSc. Thesis Page 11

consumptive and non-consumptive water requirement for evaluating an impact of human water
user rate.
Generally, the applications of WEAP model include a number of steps. Defining problem
including time frame, spatial boundary, system components and configuration; establishing
current accounts, that can be used for calibration step and provide the actual water demand,
resources and supplies for the system.; designing scenarios for future trend based on policies,
economic development and other alternative assumptions which has an impact on water
requirement, supply and catchment. Finally, evaluation of the scenarios with respect to water
adequacy, benefits, cost, effects on the environment, and sensitivity to uncertainty in key
variables (SEI, 2019). For this study, WEAP model is selected because of its inclusive,
straightforward, easy-to-use, flexible data input, interfacing with Excel (import-and export)
and provides a system for balancing water demand with supply and to maintain environmental
flow requirement. After all, WEAP model chosen to model surface water allocation.
Features of WEAP Model
ArcGIS plays a significant role as back ground display of geographic interface based on GIS
from grid cells in a matrix (Raster layer) or from points using discrete X-Y locations (Vector
layer) for demand and supply nodes. Schematic the user-created spatial layout that visualize
the physical characteristics of the water supply and demand system. The schematic is the
starting point for all activities in WEAP and for attaching elements on layer using drag and
drop (Sieber & Purkey, 2015). WEAP model is user friendly, highly flexible and
comprehensive reporting system so, the user may customize reports as graphical, tabular ,excel
csv format, or map-based output after entering data elements by selecting from a number of
formatting options (e.g., metric or English units, monthly or yearly time series wizard, percent
shares, or growth rates). Easy access to save specific report configurations as "favorites," which
can be combined into "overviews," or summaries, of key system indicators; these overviews
then retrieved quickly for review if needed. (Sieber & Purkey, 2015).
Rift Valley master plan - short review

The Rift Valley lake basin is a hydrologically closed system, with no surface flow from the
terminal lake systems. It is one of the 12 river basins of the Ethiopia with a total annual surface
MSc. Thesis Page 12

water resource estimate of 5,312 Mm3/year (MoWR, 2007). This amount was calculated from
total annual average river flow into the lake systems under natural conditions without human
abstractions streams that enter the lakes occupying the low-lying middle areas of the rift.
According to the master plan study, Bilate is the only river in the basin that has a large flow,
but limitation of land resources.
Domestic and Livestock water demand in RVLB

Most the community living in the RVLB do not have access to safe water supplies. In urban
areas, official statistics are that 54% of residents do have access to safe water. However, the
statistics hide the fact that supplies are often intermittent and that very little of the water is
potable without in-home treatment such as boiling. In rural areas, access is lower. Official
statistics are 44% but the definitions of ‘access’ and ‘safe’ obscure the fact that most rural
people get their water from open sources. Finally, this leads frequent illness on both urban and
rural environments (Azazh, 2008).
Ethiopia is among the least developed area of African nations and the RVLB is the least
urbanised area in Ethiopia, with less than 13% living in urban areas. Within the basin, 74% of
the population is in SNNPRS and 26% in Oromiya. Population density of the basin as a whole
is 167 persons per km2, which is three times the average for the country. The variability of
population density with in the basin is highly notable. Those areas within SNNPRS have a
density of 202 persons per km2, about twice that of areas within Oromiya. Population density
ranges from a low of 30 persons per km2 in Borena to 614 persons per km2 in Gedeo. The ever-
increasing population coupled with an increasing demand on the natural resources in the
catchment has profoundly exacerbated environmental degradation. Few lakes shrunk due to
excessive abstraction of water; others expanded due to increase in surface runoff and
groundwater flux from percolated irrigation water (Elizabeth, 1992). Excessive land
degradation, deforestation and over-irrigation changed the hydro meteorological setting of the
region as well.
The priority given for water supply is higher for national and regional governments alike. An
analysis has been carried out to estimate the levels of investment required to ensure access to
safe water. Because of the direct link between access for pure water and health, investment in
water supply is of the utmost importance and should be one of the main priorities for
MSc. Thesis Page 13

government investment during the Master Plan period. Water supply has been given a lot of
attention recently and is prioritized by government.
Livestock also places a significant demand on water resources. It is hoped that livestock
numbers will actually reduce in the RVLB over the Master Plan period as they are already far
too high and, as a result, actually retarding economic development
Irrigation water demand in RVLB

Currently, there is about 22000 ha total irrigation land exists for small household communities
in RVLB. The households who get benefit from the irrigated land are around 60000. It is
generally simple set-ups of a single pump abstracting water from a lake or river by individual
farmers or a few families. There are also larger, commercial irrigation schemes totalling about
7,700 ha.
In my study area, Abaya-Chamo sub basin of Bilate catchment, the total planned irrigation
area is 44,800 ha in Abaya and a further 4,000 ha in Chamo. These two lakes are interconnected
and mostly the impact is on Lake Chamo because it is the lower one. The estimated allowable
irrigation area in Abaya-Chamo sub-basin is 8000 ha. (MoWR, 2007)
Hydropower water demand in RVLB

In Rift Valley Lake Basin, the hydropower development is limited. It is not considerable of
high potential area for hydropower development because it lacks physical attributes that is
necessary for production.
Review on Water Resource Management Policy

The participation of water resource development in RVLB plays an important role
conservation, watershed protection and management. The RVLB are extremely vulnerable
ecologically because it is hydrologically closed basin. A significant proportion of the basin is
in areas of high erosion potential and many areas are already badly degraded. Reversing the
land degradation trend and rehabilitating those areas already degraded must be a priority in the
RVLB where good land for agriculture is scarce and increasing agricultural productivity is
necessary for economic growth. Surface water resource management policy in the RVLB can
greatly assist in reducing the impacts of climatic variability and improving the equitable use of
MSc. Thesis Page 14

water within the sub-basins, considering both the human and environmental demands. (MoWR,
2007)
Ethiopian Water Resources Management Policy emphasizes water for irrigated agriculture.
The irrigation sub-policy is formulated to guide the development of the irrigable land resources
of the country to improve food security and ensure a sustainable supply of industrial raw
materials (MoWR, 2007). Different agencies and organization involves in performing a number
of functions for a comprehensive water resource management. The functions include water law
and policymaking, regulation, technical assistance and coordination, monitoring and
evaluation, administration and financing, public education and involvement. Finally, the Water
Allocation and Apportionment policy states that the basic minimum water requirement of
Ethiopia should be recognized as the reserve (basic human and livestock needs, as well as an
environmental reserve). This should have the highest priority in any water allocation plan
(MoWR, 2007). This statement is significant when considering the environmental minimum
flow requirement for Abaya-Chamo sub-basin
Overview of associated investigations on water allocation by using

WEAP model
WEAP model is used by (Phingsaliao, 2019) in Flinders university of Adelaide, South Australia
on Projection of water demand and availability under climate change in the Nam Ngum
downstream area, Laos. The Study assessing the available water and allocating the demand for
different sectors such as, Domestic, Agricultural, Industry and downstream of Nam Ngum area.
Simulation of surface water and ground water interaction of the downstream area done using
MODFLOW and then linked to WEAP model. Finally, the calibration outcome shows very
good result. Water collection and abstraction points, rapid measurements on water quality were
conducted using a Conductivity Meter and GPS were used to obtain the spatial locations of
water sources. On WEAP, Simple Rainfall-Runoff coefficient simulation method is used for
catchment simulation and the calibration and validation result shows good fit.
On 2016, Omonge Paul Omondi used WEAP model on simulation of water resource use and
allocation in Nyangores sub-catchment of the upper Mara basin, Kenya. The study aims to
identify existing major water sources and sinks in Nyangores Sub-Catchment, to determine the
current water supply, demand and quality in the sub-catchment and estimation on impact of
MSc. Thesis Page 15

water planning options on the future of water resource use and allocation (Omondi, 2016). The
scenarios built in this study considers, high population growth, expansion of irrigation area,
improved water efficiency (conservation) and dry season scenario.
Weap has been used in many water related researches in Ethiopia for instance; WEAP software
is used for modeling Surface water resources for effective water allocation on Finchaa Sub-
basin, Ethiopia (Tesfaye, Yesuf, & Hirko, 2015). WEAP is used for simulation of water supply
and demand in current and future water demand. In addition, soil moisture method of catchment
simulation method was used to simulate Runoff. Finally, PEST calibration done and its output
was good.
On 2015, WEAP and SWAT model is used on surface water allocation in Didessa sub- basin,
west Ethiopia (Tena, 2015). In this thesis journal, SWAT model is used to simulate monthly
head flows which is used as a head flow for each sub-basin in WEAP model. WEAP model is
used for to evaluate the impact of water abstraction on the upstream face of Didesa sub-basin
and instream flow requirement is also estimated by Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA).
The obtained result showed very good values of model performance.
According (Fufa, 2016), used WEAP model for allocation and utilization of koka reservoir.
Study aimed to evaluate impact of climate change on reservoir water evaporation & to evaluate
capacity of reservoir for downstream irrigation water requirement and finally allocating water
effectively under climate change. After calibration and validation good result of WEAP, he
built climate change scenario and irrigation expansion scenarios to identify volume reservoir
evaporation and Irrigation water requirement and supply delivered on base line year, 1st 35
years and 2nd 35 years.
(Ebisa, 2018) Applied WEAP model for Arjo Didessa reservoir water Evaluation and
allocation system. He used Records of hydrology and meteorological data as an input data to
model. Meteorological and grid climatic data correlated with multi-regression and distribution
mapping (DM) method respectively. The demand and the supply of water resource, baseline
data and the future development activities of the area compared using the mainly two different
scenarios climate change and irrigation expansion. His study analyzed the model calibration,
validation and its statistical measure result shows that it is very good and the model can
simulate the current and the future scenarios. After all, the results revealed that the minimum
flow requirement maintained and the future irrigation demands are unmet in more or less.
MSc. Thesis Page 16

MATERIAL AND METHODOLOGY

Background
The Abaya-Chamo sub- basin is situated southwest of Addis Ababa, between 6-8◦N latitude
and 37- 38.5◦E longitude. It forms part of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), which in turn is part
of an active rift system of the Great Rift Valley. The selected study area, Bilate catchments is
found in Abaya-Chamo sub-basin, the sub-basin of the Rift valley lakes basin. Many perennial
and intermittent rivers joining the lakes Abaya and Chamo contribute major amount of runoff
to the lakes’ yield.
The Bilate River Catchment, which was chosen to be the area of study, forms the northern part
of the Abaya Chamo Basin. It is located between 70 28‘ N and 380 02‘ E in with elevation range
of 2200m above sea level at Hosana and 1750m above sea level at Alaba Kulito. Bilate River
is formed after Boyo swampy lake, which has two main sources Guracha and Weira Rivers,
and it drains to Abaya Lake. Bilate River is the longest river in the Abaya Chamo Basin, with
a length of about 255 km. It is also the only river which flows into Lake Abaya from the north.
In the west, the area of investigation is defined by the watershed of the catchment of the Omo
River, and in the east it is characterized by the Awasa lake sub-basin. The southern border is
formed by Lake Abaya, into which the Bilate River flows. The upper catchment area of the
Bilate is situated on the graben shoulder of the Main Ethiopian Rift. A dense net of tributaries
characterizes the complete catchment area of the Abaya Chamo Basin, which is around 18,600
km2. Whereas the area Bilate catchment is 5500 Km2.
In the present study, the recorded flow at the upstream gauging station (Alaba kulito station) is
300 Mm3/year and at the downstream gauging station (Bilate Tena station) the flow is
423 Mm3/year.
MSc. Thesis Page 17

Figure 1 Location map of the Abaya-Chamo Sub-basin
MSc. Thesis Page 18

Physical Characteristics of the Basin
The physical characteristics of Bilate River basin is a tectonic valley along with its length and
fault scarps or steep slopes on either side surround most part of the valley. The floor of valley
is mostly flat plain and appears to be in part a remnant of the depositions floor of the ancient
large water basin. The study area is part of the western rift margin, which is characterized by
chain ridge, hills, deep and wide valleys of small and large streams, and narrow flatlands
between the valleys having gentle slopes.
The altitude of the catchment ranges from 1194m at Lake Abaya to 3365m above sea level at
mountain Ambaricho and at Alicho Wiriro Woreda. This indicates that the topography of the
area ranges from lowland plain areas to highly mountainous elevated terrains.
The small streams flows towards Abaya Lake along with the Bilate River. Most of its
tributaries, as well as a large volume of water, come from Gurage, Silte, Hadiya, Kambata and
Wolaita zone high lands of the catchment. The increased use at downstream could be
influenced by the corresponding low rainfall, high evapotranspiration, relatively slow drainage
and thermal springs that join the river downstream Hirko et.al. (2015).
.
Figure 2: Digital Elevation Model map of the Bilate Watershed
MSc. Thesis Page 19

Climate and Hydrology
Our country Ethiopia is situated in tropics with small seasonal variations in temperature. The
temperature and rainfall tend to vary as a function of elevation and, in consequence, so do
relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration.
3.1.2.1 Rainfall
There are two principal patterns of rainfall season apparent in the RVLB. In the northern sub-
basins, there is a single wet season from April to September, which changes to a bimodal
pattern towards the south. In the north of Lake Abaya, the main rains occur July through
September, with a secondary peak in March or April while in south of Lake Abaya, the main
rains occur earlier in the year, between March and May. In the study area of Abaya-chamo sub-
basin in particular bring small rains on January, February, November and December) to most
parts of the country. Therefore, gets its first maximum rainfall during on April to September.
There are 9 metrological station in my study area and their average annual rainfall approaches
to 1101 mm/year.
1500.00
Annual Rainfall(mm)
1000.00
500.00
0.00
Metreological Stations
Figure 3: Annual Rainfall of each station in the catchment
3.1.2.2 Temperature
The temperature varies considerably in the basin with altitude. The mean annual maximum
temperature of the study area varies from 16.51OC to 33.04OC; while the mean minimum
temperature varies from 9.29 OC to 13.64OC. The mean annual temperature of the area
estimated according to the data of the all stations varies from 14.94 OC to 22.92 OC.
MSc. Thesis Page 20

3.1.2.3 Evapotranspiration
The daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated using extra-terrestrial radiation,
minimum and maximum temperatures. Studies using the Hargreaves equation to estimate PET
in Ethiopia found satisfactory results . The Hargreaves equation is derived through regression
of the temperature reduction coefficient and relative humidity factor, as in the following:
ETo = 0.0023*(0.408)*(Tmean+17.8)*(Tmax - Tmin)0.5*Ra ------------------------------------Equation 3-1
Where;- ETo is the potential evapotranspiration by the Hargreaves method (mm/day), Ra is

the extraterrestrial radiation (mm/day) that is dependent on latitude, sunshine hours and solar
constant. Tmean is the average temperature (°C); Tmax and Tmin are the maximum and
minimum temperature (°C), respectively. Based on the Hargreaves’s method the average
monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) of Bilate sub-basin was estimated to be 137mm.
Daily average potential evapotranspiration varies from approximately 5 mm day-1 and the
maximum and minimum temperature varies 32 0C and 10 0C in the catchment.
3.1.2.4 Stream Flow

In the present study, the daily flows for all available gauging stations was collected from the
Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy (the sole provider of river flow data). In the area of
investigation, five gauging stations are available for the measurement of river flow. Three of
them are situated in the upper reaches of the Bilate River, one in the middle portion and one in
the lower reaches of the river. All stations in the upper reaches does not lie on the Bilate River
itself: one is in the middle portion of the Guder, a tributary of the Bilate, and another station is
located on the Batena, a tributary of the Guder. The Guder flows through Lake Boyo with its
bordering wetlands before it flows into the Bilate River. For this study, two nearby stations
Alaba kulito and Bilate Tena of stream flow data is used. The total annual inflow of Bilate river
into the Abaya lake system has been estimated 830 Mm3. (MoWR, 2007).
Land Use and Land cover
The actual meaning of land use is the way in which land is used by people in an area to produce
what is needed by the people for use through involvement of labour, capital and available
technology. Whereas land cover refers observed physical cover on the earth’s surface. In other
words, land cover is physically appearing on the surface of the ground as a natural or manmade
MSc. Thesis Page 21

entity. Built up areas (settlements and infrastructures), cultivated land, afro-alpine and sub afro-
alpine vegetation, forest, woodland, bushland, grassland, exposed surface (bare land) and water
body are the main land cover types in the basin.
Land use land cover map of the study area collected from water and land management office.
This data will be used for land suitability analysis of the study area. The land use condition in
the Bilate catchments includes mainly of cultivated agricultural land, grassland, Water body
and forest land, rural and urban settlements. It is estimated that 19.94% is cropland, 23.59 is
woodland, 11.79 % is grassland, 0.32% is wet land and 10.86 % is barren land.
Table 1: Percentage of Land use Land cover used in WEAP model
LULC Area(ha) %age
Forest 6830.37 1.36
Wood land 14778.45 2.95
Shrub/bush 38609.1 7.71
Crop land 332855.37 66.47
Grass land 66936.69 13.37
Barren land 36507.33 7.29
Wet lend 1073.61 0.21
Water body 383.85 0.08

Rural
Settlements 2763.18 0.55
MSc. Thesis Page 22

Figure 4: Land cover land use map of Bilate River

Source: Water and Land Management (AAU Research office, 2017 data)
2.1.5.1 Agriculture
The Rift Valley Lakes Basin (RVLB) is primarily an agricultural basin and agriculture will
continue to be an important part of the economy. Related sectors of livestock and industry
based on processing of agricultural and livestock products will also be of importance. Most of
the agriculture in the RVLB is subsistence and rain fed farming. There is a strong correlation
between GDP and annual rainfall in Ethiopia and this will continue unless changes are made
in the approach to agriculture. Water can be made to contribute to the national economy through
the development of the countries water resources and expanding irrigation schemes so that
agriculture production is improved by solving the problem of water shortage caused by the
unpredictability of the rainfall (MoWR, 2007).
One of the factors that retard productivity is the small size of land holdings. This has been
driven by population growth as land was divided and re divided among generation. There is
MSc. Thesis Page 23

some potential to increase the area under irrigation, but all new irrigations must be developed
with caution as all water abstractions will impact the sensitive lakes of the RVLB and may not
be sustainable.
.Geology
The geological map of the FAO (1998) shows that, Oligocene-Miocene basalts dominate in the
Bilate River Catchment. These basalts can be found in the central area between Alaba Kulito
and Bilate Tena, accompanied by Quaternary rhyolites and trachytes in the north and Holocene
lacustrine sequences in the south of the catchment. Furthermore, on the southwest border, many
subordinated Oligocene and Miocene volcanics can be found.
Soil
According to the FAO Soil Map (1998), and the data on the ArcGIS, soil types such as Luvisols,
Nitisols and Leptosols dominate in the area of investigation. They can be found throughout the
catchment. Cambisols are present in the north, Vertisols can be found in the south and the
southwest, and Andosols are present in the central area of the catchment between Alaba Kulito
and Bilate Tena. The soil depths are between 1.00 and 2.00 m.
MSc. Thesis Page 24

Figure 5: Soil map of Bilate watershed
Population
According to 2009 master plan of the basin, the population in RVLB estimated as 8.9 million.
Ethiopia is among the least urbanised African nations and the RVLB is the least urbanised area
of Ethiopia, with less than 13% living in urban areas. Within the basin, 74% of the population
is in SNNPRand 26% in Oromiya. Population density of the basin as a whole is 167 persons
per km2, which is three times the average for the country. There is significant variation of
population density within the basin. Those areas within SNNPR have a density of 202 persons
per km2, about twice that of areas within Oromiya. Population density ranges from as low as
30 persons per km2 in Borena to 614 persons per km2 in Gedeo.
According to the masterplan report, the medium variant projection , the population of the
RVLB is expected to double before 2025, and grow to 22.9 million by the end of the Master
MSc. Thesis Page 25

Plan period. The corresponding average growth rate is 3.15%, but it is much higher (3.8%) in
the early years of the Master Plan period. This is a very high growth rate and is an obstacle to
the economic development of the basin. (MoWR, 2007).
For this study, population data of 2020 is taken from central statistical agency of Ethiopia with
current growth rate of 2.56 %.
Method used
Several methods are used in the study area, starting from data collection from different
institution such as MoWIE, National Meteorological Service Agency, Central statistical
Agency, and Water, Irrigations, and Mines departments from different zones. Coming to the
next duty, filling of missed data and checking the data quality, catchment delineation and
preparation of necessary input datas for WEAP model in a suitable format in order to estimate
the water demand and supply as well as review of literature on related studies.
Catchment Delineation
Topography is defined by a DEM that describes the elevation of any point in a given area at a
specific spatial resolution. SRTM 30 × 30 DEM of Abaya-Chamo sub Basin was collected
from Water and Land management research office. These data sets have been further analysed
and used in the extraction of catchment characteristics. The elevation of Bilate watershed
ranges between 3365 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) in the north and 1194 m in the south with
a mean elevation of 2279.5 m. Prior to data collection, the boundary of the study area was
delineated by using ArcHydro tool.
MSc. Thesis Page 26

Figure 6: Bilate catchment delineation
MSc. Thesis Page 27

Data sources and Collection
Before using and processing of any research, the primary task of the study is getting and
collecting relevant information or data of the study area. Several necessary data’s collected from
multiple organizations and then analyzed to check their qualities and consistencies.
Material used
The materials used for this research depending on the objective were ArcGIS tool to obtain
hydrological and physical parameters and spatial information of the study area, DEM data used
as an input data for ARC-GIS software for catchment delineation and estimation of catchment
characteristic, Hydrological and meteorological data, WEAP model for basin simulation and
Microsoft EXCEL to analyze WEAP outputs. To allocate surface water, data such as daily
rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours,
stream flow and soil data’s collected from responsible agencies such as Ethiopian National
Meteorological Service Agencies, Ethiopian Water Resource, Irrigation and Energy Minister
and from other sources.
Hydrological Data
Hydrological gauging stations in Bilate Sub-basin are mainly maintained by the Hydrology
Department of the Ministry of water and energy (MoWIE) which processes and files data. For
this study, the hydrological data were collected from Ministry of Water, Irrigation and
electricity (MoWIE), Daily flow data of two stations of different years have been collected.
In the Bilate sub basin there are about 4 hydrological gauging stations that records the river
flow. The stations in the upper reaches do not all lie on the Bilate River itself , one is in the
middle portion of the Guder, a tributary of the Bilate and another station is located on the
Batena, a tributary of the Guder. Whereas, the rest two stations in the middle and lower
reaches, are located on the Bilate River near Alaba and Bilate Tena. Due to some cases, only
two gauges (Bilate near Alaba and Bilate near Bilate Tena station) work properly and taken for
simulation in Weap. The fugure below shows the basic spatial distribution of stream flow
gauging stations in the Bilate sub basin.
MSc. Thesis Page 28

Figure 7: Stream flow gauge stations of Bilate watershed
Table 2: Stream flow gauging station in Bilate watershed
Station
No River Station Latitude Longitude Period River Basin
082041 Batena Nr. Hosana 7033' 37052' 1987-2006 Rift Valley

@
082005 Bilate Bilatentena 6056' 38008' 1987-2006 Rift Valley
Nr. Alaba
082008 Bilate Kulito 7017' 38004' 1987-2006 Rift Valley
082031 Weira/Bate Nr. Hosana 7035' 37055' 1987-2006 Rift Valley
Meteorological Data
Meteorological data of this study is mainly based on daily rainfall data, Temperature (maximum
and minimum), humidity, and wind speed. It is collected from the National Meteorological
MSc. Thesis Page 29

Service Agency of Ethiopia (NMSA). The quality of the studies is dependent on the quality of
required elements and quantity or long term records of data. Meteorological data of this study
was mainly based on rainfall data and temperature (minimum& maximum) data, filling missing
this data, Homogeneity test, Consistency test, Areal rainfall determination is done to make the
data’s complete and sufficient.
Figure 8: Meteorological station in Bilate river catchment
MSc. Thesis Page 30

Table 3: Selected Rainfall stations with in Bilate watershed
Missed
Years of Sub
Stn_Name Latitude Longtude Elevation data
data used basin
(%)
Bilate 6.8167 38.0833 1361 1987-2017 3.347 Bilate
Hosana 7.5673 37.8538 2307 1987-2017 3.135 Bilate
Alaba Kulito 7.3106 38.0939 1772 1987-2017 2.656 Bilate
Angacha 7.3405 37.8572 2317 1987-2017 10.146 Bilate
Fonko 7.6423 37.9680 2246 1987-2017 1.442 Bilate
Boditi 6.9537 37.9550 2043 1987-2017 2.87 Bilate
Durame 7.2400 378915 2116 1987-2017 6.55 Bilate
Bilate Tena 6.91667 38.11667 1496 1987-2017 7.51 Bilate
Shone 7.1335 37.9527 1959 1987-2017 7.77 Bilate
Data Quality Controls
The continuity of a recorded data may be broken with missing due to many reasons such as
damage or fault in gauging station during measuring period. So, before starting any model
simulation, it is important to check whether the data were homogenous, consistence, sufficient
and complete with no missing data. If the missing data exists, it should be estimated using the
data filling methods. Because incorrect data leads to inconsistency and ambiguous results that
may contradict to the actual value. Most of the meteorological stations have no data record or
have short period and random records. Such types of stations with no data record or short period
and random data records and also stations located out of the study area or at the periphery are
dropped out. .I have selected nine stations which has better quality and long period daily
records which are well distributed over the study area. These data passes through some tests
such as:-
 Filling missing of all collected data
 Homogeneity Test
 Consistency Test
3.3.3.1 Gap Filling of Rainfall and Streamflow data

The consistency and completeness of these time series is important in processing of raw data
sets by filling data gaps is the necessary procedure. (Azazh, 2008) However, it is well known
MSc. Thesis Page 31

that various hydrological research databases contain missing values (Elshorbagy, 2002).For
gauges requiring periodic measurement, failure or absence of the observer to make the required
visit to the gauge, destruction of the recording gauges and failure of the instrument due to
mechanical or electrical malfunctions, which result in missing data. (Tadesse, 2016). For any
such cause of instrument failure reduces the length and information content of the precipitation
record. The multi-regression and long average filling method was used to compute missing
data for the analysis of rainfall data.
Measurement of any flow data plays a great role to many problems in hydrologic analysis and
design. Since there are costs related to data collection, it is imperative to have complete records
at every station. The actual condition in most of the data records this is not satisfied for different
reasons. For gauges that require periodic observation, the failure of the observer to make the
necessary visit to the gauge may result in missing data. Vandalism of recording is another
problem that results in incomplete data records, and instrument failure because of mechanical
or electrical malfunctioning can result in missing data. Any such causes of instrument failure
reduce the length and information content of the flow on record (Levite, 2003). In order to
make use of partially recorded data, missing values need to be filled in sequence. To fill the
missing recorded stream flow gauging data various methods are available. The most common
methods are the simple Arithmetic Mean Method and Normal-Ratio Method and these methods
are used for filling of missing data in this study.
After selecting which station better matches the station records in a query using less percentage
of the missing data process, multi-regression between them indicates the equation in which the
given value should be determined in order to obtain the approximate missing data records for
the corresponding time.
3.3.3.2 Homogeneity Test

Homogeneity analysis was used to separate a change in the statistical properties of the time
series data. The causes can be either natural or man-made. These include alterations to land use
and relocation of the observation gauging station. Therefore in order to select the representative
meteorological station for the analysis of areal rainfall estimation, checking homogeneity of
group stations is essential, the homogeneity of the selected gauging stations daily rainfall
records were carried out by non-dimensional equation:
MSc. Thesis Page 32

----------------------------------------------------------------Equation 3-2
Where: - Pi = Non-dimensional Value of precipitation for the month i
Pi = Over years averaged monthly precipitation for the station
P = Over year’s average yearly precipitation of the station
3.3.3.3 Consistency test

Consistency of Rainfall data analyzed based on theory of a plot of two cumulative quantities
that are measured for the same time period should be straight line and their proportionality
unchanged, which is represented by slop. Therefore, inconsistency of the record was done by
the double-mass curve technique. This technique used to check the consistency of Rainfall data.
This is a method by which we can easily identify which of the neighboring gauges, if any,
around the station, which is to be filled, best corresponds to fill the missing records. The method
comprises of simple plotting of the cumulative time series volume of flow between the records
of the station to be infilled and other nearby station. This will be repeated as many as the
available nearby stations. The best neighbor then will result in more or less a straight line plot
and it’s R2 result will be closer to 1 which must be greater than 0.6. Then that station will surely
be relatively the best. If significant change in the system of the curve observed, it should be
corrected by:
------------------------------------------------------------Equation 3-3
Where:- Px’ = Corrected precipitation at station x
Px = Original recorded precipitation at station x
M' = Corrected slope of the double mass curve
M = Original slope of the double mass curve
MSc. Thesis Page 33

Figure 9: Consistency Test for Bilate, Hossana, Fonko, Boditi, Bilate Tena, and Alaba
metrological stations
3.3.3.4 Outlier Test
Outlier is an observation, which lies abnormal or out of the given data trend. The skewness
coefficient determines the whether the higher or the lower outlier or both tests required. If
station skewness coefficient (Cs) is greater than (+0.4), high outlier test applied; if the station
skew is less than (-0.4), lower outlier test is applied. Where the station skew is between (+ 0.4),
both higher and lower outliers should be applied before eliminating any outliers from the data
set.
Equation used for determination of higher outliers:
XH = Xav + KnS ----------------------------------------------------Equation 3-4
Where, XH: - Logarithmic higher - outlier test limit,
S - Standard deviation
K - Level critical value for outlier test statistic for samples size of N from the
normal distribution (Appendix D).
Equation used for estimation of lower outliers:
XL= Xav – KnS-------------------------------------------------Equation 3-5
XL: - logarithmic lower- outlier test limit,
The graph of outlier test for each station is kept on Appendix E.
MSc. Thesis Page 34

Durame Station
2
Annual Rainfall(Log value) 1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
Log value higher outlier Lower outlier
Figure 10: Meteorological station in Bilate river catchment

3.3.3.5 Areal Rainfall
In a given catchment, rain gauge stations are evenly distributed into sub-basin. The rain of one
station in a basin may be different from that of the second station in the same catchment. From
this concept, the average precipitation value on the entire catchment is worked out, so as to get
average rain catchments to have the limits of the catchment carefully defined. Therefore,
rainfall over an area of interest has to be estimated from these point measurements. There are
usually three ways of determining the areal precipitation over a catchment from rain gauge
measurement. These methods are the Arithmetic means, the Thiessen polygon and the Isohyetal
method. However, the Thiessen polygon was used for this study for its sound theoretical basis
and availability of computational tools. But the method is dependent on a good network of
representative rain gauges and does not allow the hydrologist to consider factors, such as
topography (Daniel, 2008).
To determine the mean areal rainfall, the rainfall amount of each station was multiplied by the
area of its polygon and the sum of these products was divided by the total area of the catchment.
If P1, P2, P3…Pn are the rainfall magnitudes recorded by the gauging stations 1, 2…….n,
respectively and if the areas of Thiessen Polygon A1, A2, and A3...…An, are formed as
representative of the respective stations then the average rainfall over the catchment is given
by:
-----------------------------------------------------Equation 3-6
MSc. Thesis Page 35

Where: - Pavg = areal precipitation over the sub-basin (mm);

P1, 2…n = precipitation depth in each station (mm);
A1, 2 …n = area of each polygon (km2);

A = total watershed area of sub-basin (km2)
In a given river catchment rain gauge stations are evenly distributed into sub-basin. The rain
of one station in a basin may be different from that of the second station in the same catchment.
From this idea the average precipitation value on the entire basin is worked out, to get average
rain catchments to have the limits of the catchment carefully defined. Therefore, rainfall over
an area of interest has to be estimated from these point measurements.
Figure 11: Areal rainfall of Bilate watershed
MSc. Thesis Page 36

The average of monthly areal rainfall profile with in each sub- catchment clarifies seasonal
rainfall variation besides the spatial differences within the Bilate watershed. The corresponding
profiles are graphically presented in figure 3-11 above and the pertinent series rainfall values
of the selected key stations within this region are given in table 3-4 below. The monthly
catchment profile indicates the occurrence of the dry, wet, and intermediate season of monthly
rainfall in the different locations of the watershed area. These rainfall patterns of Bilate
catchment display the Bi-Modal regime.
Table 4: Mean Monthly Areal Rainfall of the sub-basin (mm)
Catchment Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
Upper Bilate 26 49 111 147 149 131 161 176 155 74 19 21 1219
Lower Bilate 28 30 57 96 90 71 73 75 68 78 48 24 737

D/S
Batena 31 51 102 150 155 135 167 186 163 80 26 25 1272
Middile Bilate 31 51 94 128 127 102 129 134 121 75 33 24 1050
Lower Bilate 29 43 81 129 127 98 117 118 104 78 41 28 991

U/S
Amessa 29 46 90 164 165 125 152 150 127 84 42 36 1210
Monthly Rainfall variation in the catchment

Monthly RF data in sub-catchments(mm)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Figure 12: Monthly mean areal rainfall of sub-catch
MSc. Thesis Page 37

Calculation of Water Requirement
The assessment water demand in the study area is mainly, population water demand (i.e. urban
and rural), livestock water demand, Irrigation water demand and environmental flow
requirement in the catchment. The water demand calculation is done depending upon its
guidelines with various consideration.
Water Demands Guidelines

The projections and calculations of water requirement estimation consider multiple water
requirements such as; domestic water demand, commercial and institutional water demand,
industrial water demand, livestock water demand and water losses in systems. The guidelines
are prepared by Ministry of Water and Irrigation for all demand categories and additional
climatic factors that affect consumption variation with in specific river basin (Rift Valley Lake
basin) under their master plan study based on the practical situation and lifestyle of the basin
population. The following are the guidelines:
1. Domestic Water Demand (DWD)
The domestic water demand is the water requirement for domestic household use; the water
consumption per capita demand per day. The per capita demand of the basin considered, based
on the newly revised water demand standard of the second Growth and Transformation Plan
of Ethiopia (GTP-II, which goes from 2015 - 2020). Based on the newly revised water demand
standard of GTP-II, it ranges from 40 to 100 lpcd depending on the population size for urban
and 25 lpcd for rural up to the year 2020.
As per the GTP-2 water supply service level standard, it is required to provide safe water in
minimum 25 l/c/day within a distance of 1 km for rural areas while in urban areas it is required
to provide safe water in minimum 100 l/c/day.
According to master plan study, the percapita water demand determined for town/cities with
their categories that is given based on population range (See the following table).
MSc. Thesis Page 38

Table 5 Percapita water demand for each category of towns/cities
Town/cities population Estimated Percapita

Category 1 > 1 Million 80 l/c/day
Category 2 1million - 100,000 60 l/c/day
Category 3 50,000-100,000 50 l/c/day
Category 4 20,000 - 50,000 40 l/c/day
Category 5 <20,000 (rural) 25l/c/day
2. Commercial and Institutional Water Demand (CIWD)
The commercial and Institutional Water Demand is the water requirement in towns which is
needed for public schools, clinics, hospitals, offices, shops, bars, restaurants, and hotels. The
water demand for commercial and institutional need usually linked directly to the population
and taken as 5% of the domestic demand for Bilate catchment.
3. Industrial Water Demand (IWD)
Industrial water demand consumed by industries is not usually linked directly to the population.
For planning, it is assumed to use 10% of domestic water demand for all towns in the basin.
4. Livestock Water Demand (LWD)
Livestock water demand estimated based on FAO livestock standard water demand for East-
Africa countries mainly Ethiopia is applied 20litres, 5litres and 12 litres per head of cattle,
sheep/goat and Equine per day respectively.
5. Average Daily Demand (ADD): - The average daily demand is the total of the domestic,
commercial, institutional, industrial and livestock demands and the system losses.
6. Maximum Daily Demand (MDD):-The maximum daily demand is daily water

consumption in a town that varies depending on the time of day, season and climatic conditions.
So that, the Maximum Daily Demand is taken as 1.15 times the Average Daily Demand.
Current Water Demands

The current water demand in the sub-basin for different water users are the domestic water
supply, livestock requirement, and agricultural or irrigation demands. The calculation of done
at each demand node by using the disaggregated end-use based approach. The demands for
domestic, livestock, and agriculture entities estimated based on a disaggregated accounting
MSc. Thesis Page 39

approach for various measures of social and economic activities. Therefore, the user can fix
appropriate activity levels such as persons, heads, and ha of command area by standard water
use technique for each disaggregated level and multiplies these by the appropriate annual water
use rate for every activity.
As described in the WEAP User Guide, the calculation process is based on a mass water
balance for each node, and the link is subject to demand priorities and supply preferences. The
estimate begins from the current account year's first month until the last month of the last
scenario. For non-storage nodes like points on a river, calculation of the current month is
independent of calculation of the previous month. For storage nodes like reservoirs, soil
moisture, or aquifer storage, storage for the current month depends on the value of the
preceding month. Whatever water enters the system in the course of a month, it will either be
deposited in a reservoir, aquifer, or catchment soil, or exit the system through consumption or
evapotranspiration from demand site. In the schematics configuration, the identified sites were
included in the model as individual demands rather than group demands, but it could reduce
the flexibility in modelling how each irrigation site can make demands on the surface water
network according to its particular cropping pattern.
WEAP will determine the allocation order to be followed when assigning water demand Using
demand priorities and supply preferences the Allocation Algorithm processes demand sites
with higher priorities first and the rest in numerical order assigned. These assigned priorities
are useful in the representation of a system of water rights and are also important during water
shortages (SEI, 2015). Supply Preferences indicate the preferred supply source where there is
more than one source at the demand site.
Table 6: Given priority levels for different demand
Demand Type Priority

Domestic water supply with Industrial water demand and 1
Environmental flow requirement
Irrigation and Livestock water demand 2
Future Water Demands

Scenarios to estimate future water demand define an alternative or a set of assumptions based
on increasing population, irrigation and future development or policies. Changes in these
assumptions could grow water demands. However, scenarios in the WEAP model encompass
any factor that can change over time including those factors, which may change due to
MSc. Thesis Page 40

particular policy interventions, and reflect different socioeconomic assumptions. WEAP model
set up
WEAP consists of five main views: Schematic, Data, Results, Overviews and Notes. The
schematic view is GIS-based tools for easy arrangement of the system including objects like
demand nodes, rivers, reservoirs, catchment, Transmission link, return flow and any others.
The data view allows creating variables and relationships, entering assumptions and projections
mathematical expressions, and dynamically link to Excel. The result view allows detailed and
flexible display of all model outputs, in charts and tables, and on the Schematic. On the other
hand, the overview highlights key indicators of the system for quick viewing. Finally, the note
view provides a place to document your data and assumptions.
Here are necessary steps to develop WEAP model;
i. Create a geographic representation of the catchment area,

ii. Enter analysed necessary data for the different supply and demand sites,
iii. Compare results with observations and simulated model data,
iv. Define scenarios and
v. Compare and present the results of different scenarios.
The Priority assignment recommendation for each demand is between1 to 99. Level 1 is the
highest demand priority for water in the system. This means that WEAP tried to satisfy all the
demands at this level before any other level of priority demand. The model uses these priority
levels when allocating water for the demand sites. The model delivers water to all the level one
priority sites at the same time and, if there is any water remaining in the system, it will then
deliver water to the remaining priority levels.
Configuration of WEAP model
In the schematic view of WEAP, the boundary of delineated watershed, rivers, demand sites
and catchments are specified. GIS maps of rivers and catchments (watershed), are used to
determine the exact location of the streams in WEAP. Importantly, these features act as storage
within the model and as local sites of evaporation losses. The Bilate River is schematized in
this approach. The total inflows to Bilate river are, Batena, Amesa, MBUS (middle Bilate
upstream River), LBUS (lower Bilate upstream), LBDS (lower Bilate downstream) rivers enter
as head water.
MSc. Thesis Page 41

Demand sites from the surface water in the study area were integrated into twenty-six groups
for setting up of the WEAP model. The model considers the return flows from each irrigation
and livestock demand sites. However, return flow from domestic water supply was not included
since the quantity is insignificant it is preferred to overlook. The figure below shows the
schematic configuration of the WEAP model of the study area for the existing condition.
Figure 13: Schematic representation of WEAP model and Demand nodes
MSc. Thesis Page 42

Input Data to WEAP Model
Population Data and Population Forecasting

One of the basic inputs in WEAP model is the population data. The population data on 2020 is
collected from Central Statistical Agency, and the population growth rate of the basin is found
to be 2.56 %. Hence, the population on 2020 is taken and it is the current account year in my
model. The populations of the selected sites with their projections are given in table below.
One of the basic inputs in the WEAP model is the population data. The population the number
in the catchment on 2020 was around 832,334 and the population growth rate of the basin is
found to be 2.56%. The populations of the study area with their projections are given in table
below. Using the growth rate of 2.56%, the population is expected to double just after 2035,
which is 1,343,368. The total consumptive water requirement was based on the population of
the 2020 Towns (district) level.
Table 7: Current and future forecasted population data in Bilate
Year Current scenario 2020 Population growth scenario2035

Growth rate 2.56 % 3.2%
Total Population 832,334 1,343,368
The population data is forecasted by using geometric increase method because WEAP model
by default use this method to project future population size and it was also valid for Bilate.
Annual Water Use Rate

The annual water uses rate is basic input for WEAP model based on the specific guidelines
given by Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Energy, the annual water use rate per person in the
basin is calculated below:
The Urban area per capita water demand is determined based on the category of woredas and
the rural area per capita water demand is taken to be 25 lpcd (=0.025 m3/day = 9.125 m3/year).
Therefore, livestock water demand is taken 25 L/hd/ d = 9.125 m3/year for cattle, 12 L/hd/d for
Equines and 5 L/hd /day for Sheep and Goats. Finally, the livestock water use rate for those
woredas in the catchment is aggregated into one demand node.
Irrigation Water Requirement

The agriculture demand is estimated based on land use land cover percentage area, Crop
coefficients (Kc) value were used which was obtained from FAO paper 56, and agro ecological
MSc. Thesis Page 43

zones (AEZ) for annual water use rate and irrigation variation. The crop water requirement is
calculated using monthly irrigation duty considering irrigation that takes place within 6 hrs.
According to the RVLB master plan, there are 8000ha previously identified irrigation schemes
but not yet fully implemented for the main crops such as maize, cotton, wheat, potato, and
vegetables. As a result, these crops were chosen to estimate the requirement of water for crops
proposed irrigation. Since there are no existing large scale irrigation schemes in the basin.
For Irrigation data input, the irrigation duty taken based agro-ecological zone (AEZ) of the
irrigation woredas for irrigation annual water use rate that is irrigated per 6 hrs with efficiency
of 0.45. The AEZ of irrigation sites in my study area is situated on woyna-dega and dega.
Annual irrigation water use for woyna-dega and dega demand sites are taken 2047 and 1470
cubic meter per hectare with consumption rate of 70 %.
Water Requirement for Environmental flow
Since there are no hydropower generation plants existing at present and no data for the
proposed dam in the sub-basin, the only water requirement for non-consumptive uses
considered as environmental flow requirement. To estimate the availability of water resources,
environmental flow requirement should be considered to maintain the ecosystems of the river
and to maintain the river flow for downstream users. In this study, 20% of mean annual runoff
is considered for environmental flow requirement. Whereas streamflow is required at a point
on a river to meet the different ecosystem related water demands for downstream users such as
maintaining river water quality, fish, and wildlife and water level of Abaya Lake.
Scenario Definition and Implementation
Scenarios used to compare various “what if” cases and provide a structured method of thinking
about possible future water resource development and management options, opportunities and
risks, and how these might interact. The results are useful for consensus building and decision-
making.
Current Accounts Year

Current accounts year is chosen to serve as a base year of the model where we feed basic data.
With WEAP; we first create current accounts of the water system under study. The year 2020
is chosen as current accounts year in study area because the data we have collected was until
year 2020. All data entered here are the basic raw data, which actually exist in the base year
MSc. Thesis Page 44

without any projection. Hence, every data fed to this Current Account year to serve as base
year for all processes of the WEAP model.
All data entered here are the basic raw data that actually exist in the base year without any
projection. Hence, every data fed to this Current Account year to serve as the base year for all
processes of the WEAP model.
Reference Scenario
The reference scenario is developed from the current account to simulate the likely evolution
of the system without intervention. This scenario serves as reference to all other scenarios
created to show different trends. Hence, every scenario developed to show its own trend on the
model result is compared to the reference scenario, as there are interventions in the reference
scenario other than projecting the current account year to the future year.
Therefore, the total population within the basin was projected around 832,334 for the year 2020
based on the 2020 data. The current account (the year 2020) was extended to the future (2020-
2035). No major changes were imposed in this scenario.
Scenario I: High Population Growth Scenario

These scenarios can address a broad range of “what if” questions, such as; what if population
growth pattern and impact of population growth rate on the watershed compared to reference
scenario. One of the dominant factors affecting the water supply demand is population growth.
The trend of the population growth in the future may not be as expected today. The population
growth rate varies erratically from time to time; hence it is important to simulate the water
demand considering assumptions on the population growth rate variation in the future based
on the historical nature of the of the basin population.
Scenario II: Irrigation Expansion Scenario
The land in Bilate watershed is suitable for irrigation and agriculture and it is rapidly growing
in terms of area and yield. According to the masterplan study, the future expected potential
irrigation area is to be 40,000 ha on the year 2035. Therefore, different institutions should
decide on study on additional irrigation projects, since the current developed irrigation projects
are quite small.
This scenario addresses the variation in irrigation water demand due to expansion of irrigated
lands. Therefore, the impact of increased irrigation areas on irrigation water demand is shown
in this scenario. This will also affect the volume of water required in the downstream side. For
this study of this scenario, I used the area of potential irrigable land of each irrigation demand.
MSc. Thesis Page 45

Scenario III: Combination Scenario (Population growth & irrigation

expansion)
This scenario addresses the impact of both population growth and irrigation expansion on water
demand from year 2020-2035. This scenario was modeled to assess the impact of consuming
more water than the current water requirements as well as high population growth & irrigation
expansion scenarios and it is considered as worst-case scenario.
Catchment Simulation Methods
There is a choice among five methods to simulate catchment processes such as
evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration and irrigation demands. These methods include (1) the
Rainfall Runoff and (2) Irrigation Demands Only versions of the Simplified Coefficient
Approach, (3) the Soil Moisture Method, (4) the MABIA Method, and (5) the Plant Growth
Model or PGM. The choice of method should depend on the level of complexity desired for
representing the catchment processes and data availability.
The Soil Moisture Method was chosen for this work, to simulate the relationship of rainfall
runoff in the region of study. In addition, the method allows for the characterization of land use
and soil type impact to these processes. This method divided soil into two layers the upper soil
layer simulates evapotranspiration, considering rainfall and irrigation on agricultural and non-
agricultural land, runoff and shallow interflow (SEI, 2015). Base flow routing to the river and
soil moisture changes are simulated in the lower soil layer.
Each watershed unit was representing different land use, and a water balance was computed
for each fractional area, j of N. Climate is assumed uniform over each sub-catchment, and the
water balance of the sub-catchment was given as,
------- Equation 3-7
Here z1,j = [1,0] is the relative storage given as a fraction of the total effective storage of the
root zone, Rdj (mm) for land cover fraction, j. Pe is the effective precipitation. PET is the
Penman Montieth reference crop potential evapotranspiration where kc,j is the crop/plant
coefficient for each fractional land cover. The third term (Pe (t) z1,jRRFj) represents surface
runoff, where RRFj is the Runoff Resistance Factor of the land cover. The higher values of
RRFj lead to less surface runoff. The third and fourth terms are the interflow and deep
MSc. Thesis Page 46

percolation terms, respectively, where the parameter ks,j is an estimate of the root zone
saturated conductivity (mm/time) and fj is a partitioning coefficient related to soil, land cover
type, and topography that fractionally partitions water both horizontally and vertically. The
total runoff (RT) from each sub-catchment at time t is,
-------------------------- Equation 3-8

Base flow emanating from the second bucket is computed as:
--------------------------------Equation 3-9
Where the inflow to this storage, Smax is the deep percolation from the upper storage and Ks2
is the saturated conductivity of the lower storage (mm/time), which was given as a single value
for the catchment.
Figure 14: Concept of soil moisture and equations (source: WEAP User Manual).
Model Calibration
Calibration is a repetitive exercise used to establish the most suitable or sensetive parameter in
modelling studies and a means by which model parameters is arranged to make the model input
identical with the output . It is very important because reliable values for some parameters can
only be found by calibration (Reuben, 2007). It involves the identification of the most
MSc. Thesis Page 47

important model parameters and changing the parameter set. Model parameters changed during
calibration were classified into physical and process parameters. Physical parameters represent
physically measurable properties of the watershed; while the process parameters are those not
directly measurable. Model calibration can be manual, automatic and a combination of the two
methods (Tigist, 2009). Manual calibration uses trial and error techniques in parameter
adjustment through a number of simulation runs. It is subjective to the modeler’s assessment
and can be time consuming. Computer based automatic calibration involves the use of a
numerical algorithm which finds the extreme of a given numerical objective function. Model
performance is assessed statistically by comparing the model output and observed flow values.
The statistical measures commonly used are the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-
Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Tigist, 2009).
Model validation
Model Validation is the process of representing that a given site-specific model is capable of
making accurate predictions. This was done by applying the calibrated model using a different
data set out of the range of calibration without changing the parameter values. The model is
said to be validated if its accuracy and predictive capability in the validation period have been
proven to lie within acceptable limits (Reuben, 2007). Observed and simulated hydrograph
values were again compared as in the previous calibration procedure. If the resultant fit is
acceptable then the model’s prediction as valid.
Model Performance Evaluation

The model performance was evaluated using three well-known statistical criteria, the
determination coefficient (R2), the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and percent of bias
(PBIAS) (Singh, 2014). The regression coefficient (R2) is the percentage of variance in the
measured data that is explained by the simulated data. If the (R2) value is equal to zero, there
is no incentive to use two regression parameters to summarize the data. The closer the value of
R2 to 1, the higher is the agreement between the simulated and the measured flow.
The R2 value is calculated as:
… ---------------------- Equation 3-10
MSc. Thesis Page 48

The Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (ENS) shows that how well the plot of observed
values versus simulated value the 1:1 line fits.
It can be calculated as follows:
-----------------------Equation 3-11
Where: - Ysi is the simulated values of the quantity in each model time
Yoi is the measured value of the quantity in each model time
Ys is the average simulated value of the quantity in each model time
Yo is the average measured value of the quantity in each model time
Percent bias is the measure of the mean values of the simulated flow to be greater than or
smaller than their streamflow data. Positive values that show model underestimation bias and
negative values also show model overestimation bias. A value close to zero percent is best for
PBIAS and the recommended range for percent bias is between positive 25 and negative 25.
PBIAS is calculated as follows:
-----------------------------Equation 3-12
There is an intimate relationship between calibration and uncertainty and reporting uncertainty
is not a luxury in modeling, it is necessity. Without uncertainty calibration is meaningless and
misleading (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), SEI, 2008).
MSc. Thesis Page 49

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Results of WEAP Model
Before starting with the actual calibration and validation procedure it should be necessary an
understanding of the influence potential of calibration and validation parameters on model
performance. Therefore, the parameters were adjusted in variable possible ranges to overlap
the mean monthly observed stream flow with the model simulated data and the model response
was evaluated. Table 8 shows a possible parameter range of calibration of the catchment.
Table 8: Methods of Calibration parameters in allowable ranges
Calibration parameters Range Unit

Soil water capacity >0 mm
Deep water capacity >0 mm
Runoff Resistance Factor 0 – 1000 ----
Root zone Conductivity 20 mm/Month

Deep Conductivity 20 mm/Month
Preferred flow direction 0–1 ----
Initial Z1 0-100 %
Initial Z2 0-100 %
Table 9 Calibration parameter values used in upstream and downstream catchments
Runoff resistance factor for Soil water capacity for each

each catchment LULC catchment LULC
Batena LBUS MBUS Batena MBUS LBUS

Jan 2.79 8 2.8 1000 1500 3500
Feb 4.19 10 4.31 1000 1000 1000
Mar 3.7 7 3.69 1000 1600 1000
Apr 3.45 7.3 3.5 1000 1000 1000
May 3.9 6.5 3.9 1000 1000 3500
Jun 3.43 4.87 3.43 1300 1300 1000
Jul 2.6 3.5 2.6 1000 1000 1000
Aug 2.31 2.7 2.31 1000 1000 800
Sep 1.59 10 1.6 1000 1000 4800
Oct 1.48 2.45 1.48 1000 1000 1000
Nov 0.7809 4.5 0.78 1000 1000 1000
Dec 1.8 10 1.79 1000 1000 3500
MSc. Thesis Page 50

The output of calibration and validation

In this section, comparison between the observed steam flow and the simulated model output
takes place with respect to the statistical performance parameter of correlation coefficient (R2),
and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSE). The model considered various input data’s to the
catchment (i.e Kc value, LULC, rainfall, temperature …etc) and the result must be related
(matched) with the observed steam flow data. The calibration and validation of stream flow
data’s were done at different gauge stations with different period of time and data range.
Generally, the outcome shows the model is capable of indicating the hydrological process of
the catchment based on the recorded data. The following two Figures 4-1 and 4-2 show the
calibration and validation results.
Calibration Result
Calibration is the iterative process of adjusting the most sensitive parameters of the watershed
to the model that consider the catchments reality while simulating the result. It is the necessary
step confirm that the WEAP model is exactly representing the situation of the study area. The
WEAP Model calibration was performed using observed stream flow of two gauging station
located at upstream and downstream of Bilate catchment. In WEAP model calibration process,
the performances of downstream gauge is affected by (depends on) the performance of
upstream gauge. Thus, the head flow gauge or the upstream one should be calibrated first, to
have a stable upper boundary condition for the downstream gauges. The WEAP model
calibration and validation done before scenario development.
The monthly model-simulated and observed stream flows for the calibration of 13 years ( from
1987-1999) shown in figures 15 the upstream stream flow gauging station Alaba kulito and in
figure 16 downstream gauging station Bilate tena depending on continuous data availability
without missing values. Calibration was performed by comparing observed stream flows and a
simulated result of the model in the watershed.
MSc. Thesis Page 51

Stream flow (below node or reach listed)

140
120
Million Cubic Meter
100
Steam flow gauge Nr Alaba
80
Reach
60
40
20
0
Jul-90
Jul-97
Jan-87
May-89
Apr-92
Jun-93
Apr-99
Aug-87
Nov-92
May-96
Nov-99
Mar-88
Aug-94
Dec-89
Feb-91
Sep-91
Jan-94
Mar-95
Dec-96
Feb-98
Sep-98
Oct-88
Oct-95
Years
Figure 15: Calibration result of Alaba Kulito Gauge station

160
140
120
Million Cubic Meter
100
80 Stream flow gauge Nr Bilatetena
60 Reach
40
20
0
May-90
Sep-87
May-88
Sep-89
Sep-91
May-92
Sep-93
May-94
Sep-95
May-96
Sep-97
May-98
Sep-99
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Years
Figure 16: Calibration result of Bilate Tena Gauge station
MSc. Thesis Page 52

Figure 17: Monthly Mean Calibration Result of Alaba Kulito gauging station
Figure 18: Monthly Mean Calibration Result of Bilate Tena gauging station
Table 10: Summaries of statistical performance between modelled and gauged stream flow
No. Gauge Location River Gauge Station Name Calibration Period NSE R2
1 Bilate River Alaba kulito Gauge 1987-1999 0.636 0.83
2 Bilate river Bilate TenaGauge 1987-1999 0.742 0.89
MSc. Thesis Page 53

The above table shows, the statistical performance of the correlation coefficient (R2), and Nash-
Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSE) comparison between modelled and observed streamflow values for
the calibration period. These two statistical performance estimators are used to measure the
calibration between the model outputs and the observed flows. Therefore, correlation
coefficient (R2) result shows a very good fit at Alaba Kulito station and at Bilate tena station
while Nash- Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSE) result shows a good fit at both gauging station of
simulated and observed stream flows.
Validation Result
For validation process, the hydrological model should run without consideration of calibrated
time range, which is 1/3 of the whole years; this more represent the catchments characteristic
than calibration to make sure the output results are valuable. The results of the model validation
were presented in Figures 19. For both stations, simulated monthly flows were closed to the
naturalized or observed flows. On the other hand the relationship between these flow data
indicates a good correlation for the selected stations. Now the model statistically validated
result shows good performance in reproducing all its outputs needed for analyzing the scenarios
result.

140
120
Million Cubic Meter
100
Stream flow gauge Nr
80 Alaba
60 Reach
40
20
0
1/1/2000
5/1/2000
9/1/2000
1/1/2001
5/1/2001
9/1/2001
1/1/2002
5/1/2002
9/1/2002
1/1/2003
5/1/2003
9/1/2003
1/1/2004
5/1/2004
9/1/2004
1/1/2005
5/1/2005
9/1/2005
1/1/2006
5/1/2006
9/1/2006
Years
Figure 19: Validation result of Alaba kulito Gauging Station
MSc. Thesis Page 54

Stream flow (below reach or node listed)

140
Million Cubic Meter
120
100
Stream flow gauge Nr
80
Bilatetena
60
Reach
40
20
0
9/1/2006
1/1/2000
6/1/2000
4/1/2001
9/1/2001
2/1/2002
7/1/2002
5/1/2003
3/1/2004
8/1/2004
1/1/2005
6/1/2005
4/1/2006
11/1/2000
12/1/2002
10/1/2003
11/1/2005
Years
Figure 20: Validation result of Bilate Tena Gauging Station
Table 11: Summaries of statistical performance between modelled and gauged stream flow
No. Gauge Location River Gauge Station Name Validation Period NSE R2
1 Bilate River Alaba kulito Gauge 2000-2006 0.719 0.91
2 Bilate river Bilate TenaGauge 2000-2006 0.709 0.90
The above table shows the statistical summary of the comparison between modeled and
observed streamflow values for the validation period and again the correlation coefficient (R2),
and Nash Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSE) were used to measure the variation between the model
outputs and the observed flows. The statistical summary for the validation period, the Nash-
Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSE) is 0.72 and 0.71 indicating a good agreement between modelled
and observed flows. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient is 0.91 and 0.90 for the
Validation period this shows there is a very good agreement result between the modelled and
observed station flow data.
Water Demand for Current and Future scenarios
In this section, the water demand for three sectors of the study area in different periods found
in the catchment presented. These three sectors are domestic, livestock and irrigation water
MSc. Thesis Page 55

demands. The water supply demand used in common nodes on WEAP model are domestic,
industrial, commercial and institutional water demand while the domestic water demand
includes urban + Rural water demand. The water demand for livestock taken 20 l/hd/day for
cattle, 5 l/hd/day for Sheep/ Goats and 12 l/hd/day for Equine based on FAO d. It is also
applied in RVLB master plan. The domestic and livestock water demand of all town’s in Bilate
catchment is taken from current (2020) and future term years 2035. Population projection was
based on the data from CSA last projection report of 20 and using WEAP expression build the
model project the population growth of each year up to 2035.
Table 12: Livestock water demand (Source: International Livestock Research Institute,
Ethiopia, and FAO)
Livestock Total number of animals (hd) Per capita water demand

Cattles 981876 25 l/hd/day
Sheep+Goats 508746 5 l/hd/day

Equines 156736 12 l/hd/day
Table 13: Domestic and Livestock water requirement in current and future scenarios
Period Total population (Million) Water Demand (Mm3/yr)

Current (2020) 0.83 47
Population growth Scenario (2035) 1.34 121
According to irrigation inventory research on Rift Valley Lake Basin, the recent irrigation
coverage is about 8000 ha while the potential irrigation expansion area is ha and 13500 ha for
Irrigation expansion scenario respectively.
Table 14: Irrigation Water Requirements at different in current and future scenarios
Period Irrigation Area (ha) Water Demand (Mm3/year)
Current (2020) 8000 15.5

Irrigation expansion Scenario (2035) 13500 27
WEAP Model Scenario Results
Reference Scenario
On reference Scenario, all demand site annual and monthly water requirement was fully
covered. There is no unmet demand.
MSc. Thesis Page 56

4.4.1.1 Domestic and Livestock Water demand

The Current Accounts represent the starting or base year of all scenarios. Hence, it is important
to look at the nature of the demand in the current account year, as it is the base for all scenarios
and future demands. The annual water demands for the domestic including industrial and
commercial demand sites for the current account year 2020 is 47 MCM. And also the
Following figure and table shows the water demand in reference scenario.
Figure 21: water demand for domestic

Table 15 : water demand on reference scenario
Year Domestic + industrial water Livestock water

demand (MCM) demand
(MCM)
2020 47 25
2021 48 26
2022 49 26
2023 51 27
2024 52 27
2025 53 28
2026 54 28
2027 56 29
2028 57 30
2029 59 30
2030 60 31
2031 62 31
2032 63 32
2033 65 33
2034 67 33
2035 68 34
MSc. Thesis Page 57

4.4.1.2 Supply delivered

The total net amount of water required to meet the domestic and livestock water demand sites
in current account is 2020 is 47 MCM and 25.25 MCM respectively.
Table 16: Supply delivered domestic & industrial water requirement in current account
Towns Supply Delivered (MCM)

Alaba_WS 4
Angacha_ws 4
Badawocho_WS 5
Dale_WS 9
DamotG_WS 5
Humbo_WS 4
Kacha B_WS 3
Kedida G_WS 7
Shebedino_ws 6
Sum 47
Figure 22:Supply delivered for Livestock

4.4.1.4 Irrigation water demand
The model result gives the monthly average water demand and annual summation demand for
downstream Irrigation Scheme. The total net amount of water required to meet the irrigation
demands of all the sites from 1987 to 2020 was 15.5 MCM. Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Nov and Dec
MSc. Thesis Page 58

months relatively with minimum demand requirements while May to Sep show the minimum
demand requirements than other months because of rain season. The table below shows average
monthly irrigation water requirement in thousand cubic meters.
Table 17: Monthly average irrigation water demand for each site in current scenario
(Thousand m3) (1987-2020)
Water Demand (not including loss, reuse and DSM) (Thousands cubic Meter)
Selected Demand sites (15/78), Scenario: Reference, All months (12), Monthly Average
Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sum
( ha)
Alaba_Irr 193 60 60 49 31 20 28 9 17 17 40 31 35 395
Angacha_Irr 420 144 164 138 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 94 618
D_Fango_Irr 2957 924 914 748 468 308 426 132 264 256 616 468 528 6053
Dale_Irr 120 38 37 30 19 13 17 5 11 10 25 19 21 246
Damot_G_Irr 70 22 22 18 11 7 10 3 6 6 15 11 13 143
Damot_w_Irr 128 40 40 32 20 13 18 6 11 11 27 20 23 262
Humbo_Irr 2618 818 809 662 415 273 377 117 234 226 546 415 468 5359
Kacha_b_Irr 282 97 110 92 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 63 415
Kedida_Irr 154 48 48 39 24 16 22 7 14 13 32 24 28 315
Lemu_Irr 89 20 20 16 10 7 9 3 6 6 13 10 11 131
Sankura_Irr 365 114 113 92 58 38 53 33 32 76 64 58 65 624
Shebedin_Irr 151 47 47 38 24 16 22 7 14 13 32 24 27 309
Siraro_Irn 17 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 3 3 35
Sodo_zurya 45 15 18 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 66
Soro_Irrn 367 63 62 51 32 21 29 9 18 17 42 32 36 409
Sum 7976 15503
From 1987 to 2020 of current account year, monthly irrigation water demand for each irrigation
woredas at the downstream Bilate river shown on Figure 4-4 below.
MSc. Thesis Page 59

Figure 23: Monthly average Current irrigation water demands (without including losses)
4.4.1.5 Supply delivered

The total net amount of water delivered to the irrigation site to meet the irrigation water
demands of all the sites from 1989 to 2020 with the efficiency of 0.45 was 15.5 MCM.
Similarly, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Nov and Dec months relatively with maximum demand
requirements while May to Sep show the minimum demand .The difference between the
amount of water demand and the amount of water delivered shows no unmet demand. The table
below shows the monthly delivered water demand that meets irrigation water requirement.
Table 18: Monthly average supplies delivered for Irrigation demand site in current scenario
Supply Delivered (MCM)
Irrigation Demand Sites (15/32), All months (12), Monthly Average
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sum
Reference 2.46 2.47 2025 1.23 0.73 1.01 0.31 0.63 0.61 1.47 1.14 1.42 15.5
scenario
MSc. Thesis Page 60

Figure 24: Monthly Supply delivered for all irrigation demand site
4.4.1.6 Unmet water demand

Unmet demand is the supply requirement that is not met. In other words unmet demand is the
differences between supplies require and supply delivered at particular demand site and in the
time duration. In this analysis of the reference scenario, monthly as well as annual unmet
demand for all irrigation site is zero.
Table 19: Mean monthly unmet demands for each demand site (Thousand m3) on current
scenario.
Unmet Demand (Thousand cubic Meter)

Selected Demand Sites (15/32), Scenario: Reference, All months (12), Monthly
Average
Reference 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scenario I Population growth scenario (2020-2035)

This scenario determine the estimation of “what will happen if the population growth rate is
set to a higher growth rate than the reference scenario population growth rate?” In this case,
the population growth rate was raised to 3.2% from 2.56% to simulate the water demand in the
future.
MSc. Thesis Page 61

4.4.2.1 Water Demand

The net water demand for each sector was incorporated within the WEAP model and shows
the expected water quantity for the year 2020 - 2035. As expected from the result, the increase
in population growth of the domestic water demand projected in the year 2035, the total annual
water demand increased to 121 MCM. The livestock water demand also increases to 39 MCM
with livestock growth rate of 3%, which was 2.4% on reference scenario. The figure below,
illustrates the water requirement in reference & high population growth.
Figure 25: Domestic water demand with respect to reference scenario
Figure 26: Livestock water demand with respect to reference scenario

4.4.2.2 Supply Delivered
The supply delivered to meet the domestic and livestock water requirement which is 117 MCM
and 39 MCM on these scenario of 2020- 2035. As a result, in population growth scenario the
MSc. Thesis Page 62

unmet water demand for domestic and industrial is 4 MCM and Livestock demand site 7 MCM
which is 3.3% and 17.9% of their total water requirement.
Table 20: Supply delivered for domestic and livestock
Supply delivered Supply delivered for
`Year for livestock domestic
2020 25 47
2021 26 77
2022 27 80
2023 28 83
2024 28 86
2025 29 88
2026 30 91
2027 31 94
2028 32 97
2029 33 100
2030 34 104
2031 35 107
2032 36 110
2033 37 114
2034 38 117
2035 33 117
Scenario II Irrigation Expansion scenario
This scenario describes the possible future irrigation situation in Bilate catchment have been
defined. The starting point for the scenarios is an assumption that in line with the new Water
Resources Management Strategy, the overriding policy is to prioritize the development of
irrigation areas to their full potential. The monthly of water requirement for all irrigation
demand is 26.37 MCM with 25.92 MCM of supply delivered for all irrigation demand sites in
the current scenarios. The scenario shows the utilization of the full irrigation potential of all
demand sites on Bilate river.
4.4.3.1 Water demand

The annual total irrigation water demand in this scenario increases to 26.37 MCM because of
increased irrigable area. As a result, the irrigation water demand is much lower than the
domestic and livestock water demand because, the domestic water demand includes urban and
rural water demand with a consideration of industrial water demand and irrigation water
demand only contain the agricultural water demand and the irrigable area in the study area is
8000 ha ,which is not large.
MSc. Thesis Page 63

Figure 27: water demand of irrigation expansion scenario with respect to reference scenario
Table 21: Mean monthly irrigation water demand (Thousand cumecs)
Water Demand (not including loss, reuse and DSM) (MCM)
Levels, Selected Branches (15/78), Scenario: SCENARIO II IRRIG.EXPANSION All months (12), Monthly Average
Demand Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sum
sites ( ha)
Alaba_Irr 193 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04 0.50
1 2 5
Angacha_Irr 420 0.23 0.27 0.22 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.15 1.00
0 0 0
D_Fango_Irr 2957 1.86 1.84 1.51 0.94 0.62 0.86 0.2 0.53 0.5 1.2 0.94 1.06 12.18
7 1 4
Dale_Irr 120 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04 0.50
1 2 5
Damot_G_Irr 70 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.24
1 1 2
Damot_w_Irr 128 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.05 0.52
1 2 5
Humbo_Irr 2618 1.13 1.12 0.92 0.57 0.38 0.52 0.1 0.32 0.3 0.7 0.57 0.65 7.41
6 1 5
Kacha_b_Irr 282 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.08 0.49
0
Kedida_Irr 154 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.05 0.60
1 3 6
Lemu_Irr 89 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.15
0 1 1
Sankura_Irrn 365 0.24 0.23 0.19 0.12 0.08 0.11 0.0 0.07 0.0 0.1 0.12 0.13 1.55
3 7 6
Shebedino_Ir 151 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.05 0.60
r 1 3 6
Siraro_Irn 17 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.04
0 0 0
Sodo_zurya_I 45 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.02 0.14
rr 0 0 0
MSc. Thesis Page 64

Demand Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sum
sites ( ha)
Soro_Irrn 367 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.04 0.46
1 2 5
Sum 7976 4.16 4.17 3.42 2.09 1.26 1.74 0.5 1.08 1.0 2.5 1.95 2.41 26.37
4 4 2
4.4.3.2 Supply Delivered

The mean monthly supply delivered to meet all irrigation water requirement from in 2035
increased to 25.98 MCM while the total annual water delivered from 2020-2035 is 128 MCM.
The table & figures below shows the mean annual water delivered in Thousands of meter cubes
and its difference with respect to reference scenario.
Table 22: Mean monthly Supply delivered in (MCM),
Supply Delivered (MCM),

Levels, Selected Branches (15/78), Scenario: SCENARIO II IRRIG.EXPANSION All months (12),
Monthly Average
Alaba_Irr 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.50
Angacha_Irr 0.23 0.27 0.22 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.15 1.00
D_Fango_Irr 1.86 1.84 1.51 0.94 0.62 0.86 0.27 0.53 0.51 1.24 0.94 1.06 12.1
Dale_Irr 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.50
Damot_G_Irr 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.24
Damot_w_Irr 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.41
Humbo_Irr 1.13 1.12 0.92 0.57 0.38 0.52 0.16 0.32 0.31 0.75 0.57 0.65 7.41
Kacha_b_Irr 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.49
Lemu_Irr 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.15
Sankura_Irrn 0.24 0.23 0.19 0.12 0.08 0.11 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.16 0.12 0.13 1.53
Shebedino_Irr 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.60
Siraro_Irn 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04
Sodo_zurya_Irr 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.14
Soro_Irrn 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.46
Kedida_Irr 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.60
Sum 4.16 4.14 3.41 2.09 1.26 1.74 0.54 1.08 1.04 2.51 1.94 2.39 25.98
MSc. Thesis Page 65

Figure 28: Mean monthly supply delivered for all irrigation sites
4.4.3.3 Unmet demand

The mean monthly water demand which is not delivered to the required irrigation sites is 0.4
Mm3 which is 1.5 % of total monthly water requirement. Mainly the water shortage for
irrigation demand site occurs on October and November.
Table 23: Mean monthly unmet demand of all irrigation sites (Thousand cubic meter)
Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De Sum
( ha) c
Alaba_Irr 193 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 8
Angacha_ 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
Irr
D_Fango_ 2957 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 116 0 196
Irr
Dale_Irr 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 8
Damot_G 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 4
_Irr
Damot_w 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 8
_Irr
Humbo_Ir 2618 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 70 0 118
r
Kacha_b_ 282 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Irr
Lemu_Irr 154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
Sankura_I 365 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 15 0 25
rrn
Shebedino 151 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 0 10
_Irr
MSc. Thesis Page 66

Area Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De Sum
( ha) c
Siraro_Irn 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sodo_zur 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ya_Irr
Soro_Irrn 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 7
Kedida_Ir 367 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 10
r
Sum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 162 238 0 400
Scenario III population growth & Irrigation Expansion Scenario

(Combination)
This scenario determines the amount water required & delivered from 2020-2035 due to the
increase in population size by 3.2 % , livestock growth by 2.4% and full usage of potential
irrigation area. From the simulated WEAP output, in this scenario the water requirement
increased to 188 MCM at the end of 2035. Whereas the total annual water supply delivered is
179 in 2035. Finally, total annual unmet demand increased to 9 MCM that is 4.8% total water
requirement.
The main negative impact of irrigation expansion and population growth, is increasing the
water demand and unmet demand in the catchment that causes the instream (environmental)
river flow reduction. Although when the population growth rate is high, the need and use of
water increases. The environmental flow coverage mainly decreases in October and November
and also the unmet demand increases in these scenarios.
Figure 29: Annual water requirement without loss and reuse of all demand site
MSc. Thesis Page 67

Figure 30: Supply delivered for all demand sites in all scenarios
Figure 31: unmet of all demand site all in all scenarios

The environmental flow requirement is shown in the figure below
MSc. Thesis Page 68

Figure 32: monthly Instream flow requirement
The environmental flow requirement coverage fully met from January to September and on
December but there is unmet demand on October and November in population growth,
irrigation area expansion and combination scenarios.
Figure 33: Met instream flow requirement all demand sites in Combination vs Reference
scenario
MSc. Thesis Page 69

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Conclusions
The study analyzed surface water resource allocation of Bilate catchment by assessing the
available water and evaluating the water requirement that exists in the catchment concerning
with necessary input data. In line with the objective of the study, the available water demand
is quantified and the water requirements for domestic, irrigation and for environmental flows
were analyzed.
To determine the available water in the catchment, catchment delineation and kc, LULC, areal
precipitation, areal temperature, stream flow data are taken as an input to WEAP model. The
analyses of metrological and hydrological data were done and rigorous data filling and quality
control were carefully undertaken. After providing the necessary input data, the WEAP model
calibrated and validated using observed stream flow data of the two upstream and downstream
stations Alaba kulito & Bilate Tena gauge station. The available annual modeled streamflow
in the upstream and downstream section is 338MCM and 460MCM. In addition, the
performance evaluation of the WEAP model shows that the statistical measure parameters of
observed and simulated result were very good. Therefore, the model is able to simulate future
stream flow with the population growth and irrigation expansion and environmental flow
requirement effect in the study area.
The water requirement is estimated for 25 demand sites 15 of which are irrigation demand
nodes (woredas), 9 demand nodes for domestic demand and 1 node for livestock water
requirement of all woredas were considered. For irrigation water requirement the actual
irrigated area, monthly irrigation duty and irrigation efficiency plays an important role while
the domestic water requirement is analyzed based population number and growth rate and
livestock water demand is considered based on livestock population with growth rate. Thus,
the annual water demand with in the study area for domestic, livestock and Irrigation in the
current account year 2020 is 47 MCM, 25 MCM and 15.5 MCM.
This thesis also evaluates the effect of population growth and Irrigation area expansion using
different scenarios in Bilate river water allocation using WEAP model. On the reference
scenario, there is no unmet demand. Almost all domestic, industrial, livestock and irrigation
MSc. Thesis Page 70

water demands are met from year 1987 to 2020. Likewise in the coming future Development
Scenario of 2020-2035 population growth scenario, the water requirement for all towns
domestic and livestock is 121 MCM for 1.3 Million population and 39 MCM for 1.6 Million
Livestock unit in the catchment. The unmet demand in this scenario is 8% of total water
requirement including irrigation water demand of 15.5 MCM.
In the second future development of 2020-2035 irrigation expansion scenario, the unmet
demand for 13,500 ha of monthly water requirement 26.37 MCM is 0.4 MCM, which is 1.5%
of monthly irrigation water requirement.
In the last future development scenario, which is a combination of population growth by 3.2%
, livestock population growth by 3% and full potential irrigation area expansion, the total water
requirement is 188 MCM while the unmet demand is, 9 MCM (4.7 % of total water
requirement) respectively.
Finally, the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) Model has been found to be
helpful as an Integrated Water Resources Management tool for balancing water supply and
demand for current and future scenarios with respect to different priority level of each demand
node.
MSc. Thesis Page 71

Recommendations
This thesis followed through multi computer programs and model input data’s such as -
climatic and stream flow data of less quality (incomplete) which leads a certain degree of
uncertainty. Therefore, these results should be taken with care and should be taken as an initial
assessment to picture surface water allocation of supply and demand analysis in the study area.
This study mainly focused on the consideration surface water resources in the river catchment
and its allocation. However with the increase of scarcity of water, groundwater resources in the
sub-basin should come to play a major role in future water resources development. A detailed
assessment of groundwater resources in the sub- basin is required for acquiring data needed for
future studies on groundwater use.
It is necessary to make a detail study on environmental flow requirement before developing

any other projects in the watershed for a better water resource allocation pattern within the
basin and to keep the ecological balance and of Lake Abaya whose main contributory river is
Bilate.
There is a limitation of land resources in Bilate River and construction of a storage dam is
necessary to meet the water requirement and to expand Irrigation area. In addition, watershed
conservational measure structures like bunds; terraces, planting trees should be constructed on
the upper part of the Bilate.
In my thesis, water quality is not included because of data limitation. The Water quality
assessment is necessary on Bilate catchment and it should be considered on future water
allocation studies.
MSc. Thesis Page 72

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MSc. Thesis Page 75

APPENDICES
Appendix A: - Average monthly Rainfall of stations used
Month Bilate tena Hossana Alaba Angecha Boditi Durame Bilate Shone Fonko
Jan 29.99 28.32 30.13 38.30 28.70 27.02 28.29 40.06 25.67
Feb 32.75 44.35 49.01 59.76 46.30 44.92 29.59 52.91 48.83
Mar 77.27 100.85 92.17 102.70 89.68 84.48 57.05 111.40 110.88
Apr 130.42 134.01 135.44 181.72 164.23 145.03 113.84 183.59 146.63
May 117.61 148.03 125.17 169.39 171.36 158.79 103.31 170.18 149.17
Jun 88.44 127.59 91.82 148.82 125.02 102.76 76.38 135.51 130.85
Jul 92.46 153.88 116.53 188.21 151.83 152.89 90.88 169.63 160.97
Aug 93.21 175.38 152.74 208.04 150.42 153.68 74.51 194.92 176.11
Sep 93.34 153.73 120.97 181.84 126.59 141.12 68.16 184.65 155.49
Oct 97.44 69.76 71.57 96.06 84.48 97.64 82.43 100.66 87.34
Nov 34.29 21.60 60.86 47.29 42.14 37.27 47.58 44.91 19.15
Dec 22.94 21.97 23.13 31.40 35.56 22.95 23.87 38.99 21.47
MSc. Thesis Page 77

Appendix B: - Average Annual rainfall of the Stations used in the study
Bilate
Year Fonko Bilate Alaba Hossana Boditi Angecha tena shone Durame
1987 116.94 60.85 129.19 106.71 108.33 96.84 84.45 136.18 110.88
1988 92.63 80.28 124.83 101.35 114.81 105.59 62.37 135.94 104.59
1989 111.36 66.11 90.29 99.98 91.48 128.60 79.91 112.97 131.73
1990 86.37 61.92 80.67 88.24 101.91 125.04 71.37 99.57 87.33
1991 86.21 61.10 81.04 87.64 101.08 93.14 62.90 126.07 106.44
1992 130.08 81.35 96.88 115.63 121.97 112.66 67.50 154.31 110.56
1993 125.92 66.39 106.02 117.79 108.67 126.59 74.03 197.10 93.10
1994 74.24 68.22 67.18 77.06 99.93 78.82 72.71 154.04 67.73
1995 78.84 51.43 81.30 96.73 89.92 121.41 82.00 118.26 78.55
1996 117.17 89.65 96.67 97.35 111.59 118.91 97.82 163.78 74.85
1997 138.74 70.94 99.46 120.21 120.83 130.42 87.17 204.03 100.35
1998 114.81 52.70 102.72 129.70 127.17 112.09 82.57 152.05 114.88
1999 96.13 41.28 63.62 84.28 83.54 121.34 97.65 100.26 88.83
2000 98.35 51.37 73.00 82.66 79.03 121.61 73.23 106.75 96.85
2001 118.42 44.74 78.68 95.46 117.67 167.24 65.84 114.70 110.31
2002 117.18 43.38 66.33 112.20 92.13 139.04 66.48 106.93 97.46
2003 124.43 70.92 78.61 97.30 96.91 160.21 74.65 78.41 87.79
2004 99.70 68.08 82.72 99.80 91.40 147.80 73.52 106.82 88.73
2005 103.16 83.39 72.21 98.25 112.24 164.89 83.07 107.12 122.54
2006 100.31 86.03 72.82 100.14 111.24 139.17 89.33 92.57 78.32
2007 105.89 79.44 90.13 91.57 127.32 157.73 85.59 95.68 86.09
2008 105.71 65.58 79.19 100.23 84.18 117.97 84.08 96.85 83.65
2009 84.08 57.14 70.69 97.70 81.73 104.66 59.00 77.75 71.15
2010 104.44 90.19 150.03 93.46 99.89 102.86 94.79 118.31 84.16
2011 88.70 71.69 79.67 92.91 100.63 109.09 75.53 124.07 100.37
2012 90.23 57.26 62.69 81.80 90.37 110.30 65.90 101.61 90.00
2013 97.48 98.10 168.14 94.21 116.85 111.62 98.26 92.74 109.56
2014 91.66 69.48 97.89 120.71 107.00 94.96 63.45 120.56 134.26
2015 99.51 54.48 48.80 82.86 60.42 60.11 65.00 75.80 70.00
2016 102.88 58.30 105.02 94.70 100.50 135.40 85.29 124.21 134.95
2017 82.55 54.22 66.52 88.39 91.38 87.84 66.14 92.09 109.42
MSc. Thesis Page 78

Appendix C: - Annual average maximum and minimum temperature of selected stations
Hossana Angecha Alaba Bilate Boditi

T T
Year T max Tmin max Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax min Tmax Tmin
1987 22.90 17.15 24.12 13.91 27.57 8.00 30.81 11.75 23.83 11.50
1988 22.18 10.82 26.31 15.80 27.21 6.09 30.44 10.95 23.52 10.25
1989 21.45 10.21 25.76 15.45 26.85 7.27 30.54 13.70 23.04 8.96
1990 21.85 10.51 25.27 15.95 27.41 8.82 29.67 16.47 23.48 8.10
1991 22.48 10.90 25.78 15.99 27.34 9.33 29.87 16.16 24.09 7.23
1992 22.18 10.97 24.62 14.53 27.07 9.08 29.79 16.33 23.60 6.87
1993 22.77 11.05 24.71 14.72 26.46 8.15 29.97 15.83 23.62 12.89
1994 22.77 11.05 24.87 15.16 27.48 13.26 30.35 15.79 24.43 12.76
1995 22.87 10.85 25.00 15.02 27.72 13.66 30.95 16.06 24.74 13.45
1996 22.17 10.65 24.65 14.75 27.30 13.31 29.94 15.57 24.41 13.17
1997 22.80 11.15 24.30 13.54 27.80 13.80 30.14 16.40 25.07 13.49
1998 22.46 11.30 23.81 12.81 27.52 14.25 30.17 16.79 24.71 13.73
1999 22.65 10.42 23.79 13.36 27.68 12.62 30.07 16.58 25.13 13.10
2000 22.75 10.14 23.46 13.24 27.61 13.45 30.44 16.89 25.42 13.24
2001 22.26 10.96 23.06 13.25 27.36 13.54 30.13 16.65 24.79 13.41
2002 22.75 10.65 23.52 13.62 28.16 14.12 30.26 16.35 24.90 12.67
2003 22.83 11.05 23.44 13.42 27.94 13.76 30.38 16.31 24.62 13.56
2004 22.60 10.34 23.48 13.19 28.19 13.30 30.69 16.16 24.61 13.55
2005 22.82 11.06 23.20 13.21 28.04 13.43 30.26 16.74 24.65 13.54
2006 22.82 11.26 23.39 13.10 27.94 13.95 29.89 16.80 24.35 13.69
2007 22.94 11.12 23.58 13.29 28.25 13.40 29.91 16.64 24.44 13.48
2008 22.93 10.42 23.46 13.26 28.87 13.07 30.26 16.67 24.98 13.27
2009 23.54 10.61 23.65 13.31 29.71 13.54 31.21 16.86 25.87 13.78
2010 22.53 10.96 23.48 13.07 27.72 13.10 29.69 17.15 24.57 13.82
2011 23.28 10.98 23.67 13.32 29.04 13.86 29.32 18.24 25.47 13.80
2012 23.58 10.61 23.89 13.72 29.42 13.52 31.30 16.72 25.42 13.46
2013 23.04 10.39 23.69 13.63 27.79 14.36 30.22 16.67 24.63 13.42
2014 22.90 10.75 23.15 13.23 28.55 17.69 30.77 16.89 24.63 13.76
2015 24.00 11.51 24.21 13.51 30.64 17.99 31.86 17.61 25.67 13.83
2016 23.17 11.70 23.82 13.34 28.95 17.10 31.05 17.99 24.94 14.03
2017 23.72 11.05 25.10 12.47 29.06 12.83 31.36 17.77 24.81 13.66
MSc. Thesis Page 79

Appendix D: - Outlier Test KN Values
One-sided 10 percent significance outlier test KN values for a normal distribution (Interagency
Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, after Grubbs and Beck, 1972).
MSc. Thesis Page 80

Appendix E: - Outlier test of Rainfall Stations for KN = 2.577
Bilate Station
2.5
Annual Rainfall(Log value)
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
Boditi Station
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
MSc. Thesis Page 81

Fonko Station
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
Durame Station
2
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
MSc. Thesis Page 82

Hossana Station
2.5
Annual Rain fall (log value)
2
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
Angecha Station
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(Years)
MSc. Thesis Page 83

Alaba Station
2.5
2
1.5
0.5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time(years)
Appendix F:- Double mass curves of stations
Alaba
R² = 0.9992
40000
35000
Annual cummulative of station
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Annual cummulative of other stations
MSc. Thesis Page 84

Durame Station
40000 R² = 0.9992
Annual cummulative of Station 35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Hossana Station
R² = 0.9999
40000
Annual cummulative of Hossana Station
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Fonko Station R² = 0.9996
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
MSc. Thesis Page 85

Bilate Staion
R² = 0.9991
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Boditi Station
40000 R² = 0.9999
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Appendix G:- Average Kc values of different land uses/cover types of Bilate River
MSc. Thesis Page 86

LULC Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Forest 0.65 0.66 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.7
Wood Land 0 0 0 0 0.35 0.64 1 1.06 1.04 0.52 0 0
Shrurb/Bush 0.65 0.66 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.7
Grass Land 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.64 1.00 1.06 1.04 0.52 0.00 0.00
Barren Land 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Water Body 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05
Crop Land 0.82 0.85 0.8 0.92 0.91 0.4 0.81 0.96 0.87 0.68 0.9 1.01
MSc. Thesis Page 87

SURFACE WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR ABAYA-CHAMO SUBBASIN USING WEAP MODEL, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIAN RIFT VALLEY Eyerus Nigussie

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ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SURFACE WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR ABAYA-CHAMO SUB-

A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfilment of

Addis Ababa Institute Technology

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Approval by Board of Examiners

Dr. Fiseha Behulu ---------------------------- ______________

Advisor Signature Date

-------------------------------------- -------------------------- ---------------

Internal Examiner Signature Date

----------------------------------------- --------------------------- ----------------

External Examiner Signature Date

---------------------------------------- --------------------------- -------------

Chairperson Signature Date

MSc. Thesis Page ii

MSc. Thesis Page iii

MSc. Thesis Page iv

MSc. Thesis Page v

MSc. Thesis Page vi

MSc. Thesis Page vii

MSc. Thesis Page v

MSc. Thesis Page vi

AEZ Agro Ecological Zone

MSc. Thesis Page vii

MSc. Thesis Page 1

Statement of the problem

MSc. Thesis Page 2

Objectives of the study

 What is the amount of mean annual runoff available in Bilate River?

The Significance of the study

MSc. Thesis Page 3

The Limitation of study

MSc. Thesis Page 4

Review on water availability and demand assessment

MSc. Thesis Page 5

MSc. Thesis Page 6

Water demand can be assessed considering either of the following categories:

 Domestic water demand for households (Urban and Rural)

Domestic water requirement

Water Requirement for Irrigation

MSc. Thesis Page 7

MSc. Thesis Page 8

Environmental (Instream) Flow Requirement

Review on surface water demand and its allocation

MSc. Thesis Page 9

 Allocating water recognizing fresh water-water dependant ecosystem and

Review on Models used for Water allocation

MSc. Thesis Page 10

Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model

MSc. Thesis Page 11

Features of WEAP Model

Rift Valley master plan - short review

MSc. Thesis Page 12

Domestic and Livestock water demand in RVLB

MSc. Thesis Page 13

Irrigation water demand in RVLB

Hydropower water demand in RVLB

Review on Water Resource Management Policy

MSc. Thesis Page 14

ETo = 0.0023(0.408)(Tmean+17.8)(Tmax - Tmin)0.5Ra ------------------------------------Equation 3-1