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82 Decision Tree Analysis

spss decision tree analysis class notes

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10 views4 pages

82 Decision Tree Analysis

spss decision tree analysis class notes

Uploaded by

Sarika Koluguri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Decision tree analysis in SPSS

Maths and Statistics Help Centre

Introduction
Decision tree analysis helps identify characteristics of groups, looks at relationships between independent
variables regarding the dependent variable and displays this information in a non-technical way. The
process can also be used to identify classification rules for future events e.g. identifying people who are
likely to belong to a particular group.

Basic model
The following example uses records from the Titanic on passengers. The tree will look at what factors
affected chances of survival.

Dependent variable: Binary


indicator of survival (1 = survived)

Independent variables:
Gender
Class (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
Child under 13 (Under 13, adult)
Travelling alone/ travelling with
others.

Growing method: The most commonly used growing methods are CHAID (Chi-squared automatic
interaction detection) and CRT (Classification and regression).
Summary of differences:
 Treatment of missing values. CRT uses surrogates (classification via other independent variables
with a high association with the independent variable with a missing value) whereas CHAID treats
all missing values within an independent variable as one category.
 CHAID uses Pearson’s Chi-squared to decide on variable splits and CRT uses Gini
 CRT only produces binary splits. If all independent variables are binary, the resulting tree from CRT
and using the Pearson’s Chi-squared option within CHAID will produce the same tree.
 CRT has a pruning ability so that extra nodes which do not increase the risk (wrong classification) by
much can be automatically removed to leave a simpler tree.
Decision tree analysis in SPSS
Maths and Statistics Help Centre

Basic output using CHAID

For each node, the number of people and % who


died/ survived is given. The splits occur in order of
importance. Here, gender was the most significant
factor regarding survival so the ‘parent’ node
containing all 1309 passengers splits into two ‘child’
nodes, one containing males and the other females.

TERMINAL NODE: This is the end of a branch


and a point of classification. The classification
is highlighted in grey. For example, those in
node 7 are classified as dying. These people
are female and were in 3rd class.

Terminal Path Classification Number correct Number wrong


node
4 Male under 13 Survived 27 23
5 Female  1st Class Survived 139 5
6 Female  2nd Class Survived 94 12
7 Female  3rd Class Died 110 106
8 Male Adult 1st Class Died 118 57
9 Male Adult 2nd or 3rd Class Died 541 77

The risk represents the proportion of cases misclassified by the proposed classification. The
classification table summarises the percentages classified correctly. The model classified 95.1% of
those dying correctly, but only 52% of those who survived.
Decision tree analysis in SPSS
Maths and Statistics Help Centre

/* Node 1 */.
IF (((Gender = "male") OR (Gender != "female") AND (Number of accompanying siblings
or spouses != "1")))
THEN
Node = 1
Prediction = 0
Probability = 0.809015

/* Node 5 */.
IF (((Gender = "female") OR (Gender != "male") AND (Number of accompanying siblings
or spouses = "1"))) AND (((Class = "1st" OR Class = "2nd") OR (Class != "3rd") AND
((Age NOT MISSING AND (Age > 23.5)) OR Age IS MISSING AND (Number of accompanying
siblings or spouses != "3 or more")))) AND (((Class = "1st") OR (Class != "2nd") AND
(Age IS MISSING OR (Age > 34.5))))
THEN
Node = 5
Prediction = 1
Probability = 0.965278

/* Node 6 */.
IF (((Gender = "female") OR (Gender != "male") AND (Number of accompanying siblings
or spouses = "1"))) AND (((Class = "1st" OR Class = "2nd") OR (Class != "3rd") AND
((Age NOT MISSING AND (Age > 23.5)) OR Age IS MISSING AND (Number of accompanying
siblings or spouses != "3 or more")))) AND (((Class = "2nd") OR (Class != "1st") AND
(Age NOT MISSING AND (Age <= 34.5))))
THEN
Node = 6
Prediction = 1
Probability = 0.886792

/* Node 4 */.
IF (((Gender = "female") OR (Gender != "male") AND (Number of accompanying siblings
or spouses = "1"))) AND (((Class = "3rd") OR (Class != "1st" AND Class != "2nd")
AND ((Age NOT MISSING AND (Age <= 23.5)) OR Age IS MISSING AND (Number of
accompanying siblings or spouses = "3 or more"))))
THEN
Node = 4
Prediction = 0
Probability = 0.509259
Decision tree analysis in SPSS
Maths and Statistics Help Centre

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