Investment Management

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Investment Risk and Returns

1. Introduction to Risk and Return


 Risk: The uncertainty about returns. It involves both danger and opportunity.
 Return: The gain or loss on an investment over a specified period.

2. Types of Risk
 Systematic Risk: Market risk that cannot be diversified away (e.g., economic changes, political
events).
 Unsystematic Risk: Specific to a company or industry and can be reduced through
diversification (e.g., company management, financial practices).

3. Measuring Risk
 Variance: Measures the dispersion of returns around the mean.
 Standard Deviation: The square root of variance, indicating the average deviation from the
mean.
 Beta: Measures a stock’s volatility relative to the market.

4. Risk-Return Tradeoff
 Higher risk is associated with the potential for higher returns.
 Investors demand a risk premium for taking on additional risk.

5. Calculating Returns
 Realized Return: The actual gain or loss experienced.
o Example: Buying a stock at $95 and selling at $200 results in a cash return of $1051.
 Expected Return: The anticipated return based on probabilities of different outcomes.

6. Historical Patterns
 Riskier investments like stocks have historically provided higher returns compared to safer
investments like bonds1.

7. Efficient Market Hypothesis


 Asserts that stock prices reflect all available information.
 Implications for investors: It is difficult to consistently achieve higher returns than the overall
market.

8. Practical Applications
 Portfolio Diversification: Reduces unsystematic risk by investing in a variety of assets.
 Asset Allocation: Balancing risk and return by distributing investments across different asset
classes.

9. Conclusion
 Understanding the relationship between risk and return is crucial for making informed
investment decisions.
 Proper measurement and management of risk can enhance investment performance.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a financial model used to determine the expected return
on an investment, given its risk. It establishes a linear relationship between the required return on an
asset and its systematic risk (market risk). The formula for CAPM is:
ER_i = R_f + \beta_i (ER_m - R_f)
where:
 ( ER_i ) = Expected return of the investment
 ( R_f ) = Risk-free rate (typically the Treasury bill rate)
 ( \beta_i ) = Beta of the investment (a measure of its volatility relative to the market)
 ( ER_m ) = Expected return of the market
 ( ER_m - R_f ) = Market risk premium
CAPM helps investors understand the relationship between risk and return, allowing them to assess
whether an investment is fairly valued based on its risk and the time value of money123.

For further reading:


Read Chapter 4 of Financial Management Book by Bagayao and Manalo
Security Market Line (SML)
The Security Market Line (SML) is a graphical representation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM). It illustrates the relationship between the expected return of a security and its systematic risk
(beta). Here are the key points:
 Axes:
o X-axis: Represents the beta (systematic risk) of the security.
o Y-axis: Represents the expected return.
 Formula:
\text{Expected Return} = \text{Risk-Free Rate} + \beta (\text{Market Return} - \text{Risk-Free
Rate})
 Interpretation:
o Above the SML: Securities are considered undervalued as they offer higher returns for
their risk level.
o On the SML: Securities are fairly valued.
o Below the SML: Securities are overvalued as they offer lower returns for their risk
level.
 Usage:
o Helps investors determine if a security offers a favorable expected return compared to
its risk.
o Assists in comparing different securities to decide which ones to include in a portfolio12.
The SML is a valuable tool for evaluating investments, but it should be used alongside other methods
for a comprehensive analysis.

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