9709/62/F/M/19/Q4

1 The random variable X takes the values −1, 1, 2, 3 only. The probability that X takes the value x is
kx2 , where k is a constant.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , in terms of k, and find the value of k. [3]
(ii) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
9709/63/M/J/19/Q6
2 A fair five-sided spinner has sides numbered 1, 1, 1, 2, 3. A fair three-sided spinner has sides numbered
1, 2, 3. Both spinners are spun once and the score is the product of the numbers on the sides the
spinners land on.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for the score. [4]
(ii) Find the mean and the variance of the score. [3]
(iii) Find the probability that the score is greater than the mean score. [2]

9709/61/O/N/19/Q4
3 In a probability distribution the random variable X takes the values −1, 0, 1, 2, 4. The probability
distribution table for X is as follows.

x −1 0 1 2 4
P X = x
1 p p 3 4p
4 8

(i) Find the value of p. [2]

(ii) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]

9709/62/O/N/19/Q5
4 A fair red spinner has four sides, numbered 1, 2, 3, 3. A fair blue spinner has three sides, numbered
−1, 0, 2. When a spinner is spun, the score is the number on the side on which it lands. The spinners
are spun at the same time. The random variable X denotes the score on the red spinner minus the
score on the blue spinner.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [4]

(ii) Find Var X
. [3]
9709/63/O/N/19/Q6
5 A box contains 3 red balls and 5 white balls. One ball is chosen at random from the box and is not
returned to the box. A second ball is now chosen at random from the box.

(i) Find the probability that both balls chosen are red. [1]
(ii) Show that the probability that the balls chosen are of different colours is 15
28
. [2]
(iii) Given that the second ball chosen is red, find the probability that the first ball chosen is red. [2]
The random variable X denotes the number of red balls chosen.

(iv) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [2]

(v) Find Var X
. [3]
 9709/52/F/M/20/Q2
6 An ordinary fair die is thrown repeatedly until a 1 or a 6 is obtained.

(a) Find the probability that it takes at least 3 throws but no more than 5 throws to obtain a 1 or a 6.
[3]
On another occasion, this die is thrown 3 times. The random variable X is the number of times that
a 1 or a 6 is obtained.

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(c) Find E X
. [2]
9709/52/M/J/20/Q5
7 A fair three-sided spinner has sides numbered 1, 2, 3. A fair five-sided spinner has sides numbered
1, 1, 2, 2, 3. Both spinners are spun once. For each spinner, the number on the side on which it
lands is noted. The random variable X is the larger of the two numbers if they are different, and their
common value if they are the same.

(a) Show that P X = 3
= 15 7. [2]

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]
(c) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
9709/53/M/J/20/Q4
8 A fair four-sided spinner has edges numbered 1, 2, 2, 3. A fair three-sided spinner has edges numbered
−2, −1, 1. Each spinner is spun and the number on the edge on which it comes to rest is noted. The
random variable X is the sum of the two numbers that have been noted.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(b) Find Var X
. [3]

9709/51/O/N/20/Q4
9 The random variable X takes each of the values 1, 2, 3, 4 with probability 14 . Two independent values
of X are chosen at random. If the two values of X are the same, the random variable Y takes that
value. Otherwise, the value of Y is the larger value of X minus the smaller value of X .

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for Y . [4]

(b) Find the probability that Y = 2 given that Y is even. [2]
9709/52/O/N/20/Q2
10 A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Sadie takes 3 balls at random from the bag, without
replacement. The random variable X represents the number of red balls that she takes.

(a) Show that the probability that Sadie takes exactly 1 red ball is 15
56
. [2]
(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]
(c) Given that E X
= 15
8
, find Var X
. [2]
9709/53/O/N/20/Q6
11 Three coins A, B and C are each thrown once.
³ Coins A and B are each biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is 23 .
³ Coin C is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is 45 .

(a) Show that the probability of obtaining exactly 2 heads and 1 tail is 94 . [3]
The random variable X is the number of heads obtained when the three coins are thrown.

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(c) Given that E X
= 32 , find Var X
. [2]
15
9709/52/F/M/21/Q4
12 The random variable X takes the values 1, 2, 3, 4 only. The probability that X takes the value x is
kx 5 − x
, where k is a constant.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , in terms of k. [2]

(b) Show that Var X
= 1.05. [4]
9709/51/M/J/21/Q7
13 Sharma knows that she has 3 tins of carrots, 2 tins of peas and 2 tins of sweetcorn in her cupboard.
All the tins are the same shape and size, but the labels have all been removed, so Sharma does not
know what each tin contains.

Sharma wants carrots for her meal, and she starts opening the tins one at a time, chosen randomly,
until she opens a tin of carrots. The random variable X is the number of tins that she needs to open.

6.
(a) Show that P X = 3
= 35 [2]
(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [4]
(c) Find Var X
. [3]
9709/52/M/J/21/Q4
14 A fair spinner has sides numbered 1, 2, 2. Another fair spinner has sides numbered −2, 0, 1. Each
spinner is spun. The number on the side on which a spinner comes to rest is noted. The random
variable X is the sum of the numbers for the two spinners.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(b) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]

9709/53/M/J/21/Q2
15 The random variable X can take only the values −2, −1, 0, 1, 2. The probability distribution of X is
given in the following table.

x −2 −1 0 1 2
P X = x
p p 0.1 q q

Given that P X ≥ 0
= 3P X < 0
, find the values of p and q. [4]

9709/51/O/N/21/Q4
16 A fair spinner has edges numbered 0, 1, 2, 2. Another fair spinner has edges numbered −1, 0, 1. Each
spinner is spun. The number on the edge on which a spinner comes to rest is noted. The random
variable X is the sum of the numbers for the two spinners.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(b) Find Var X
. [3]

9709/52/O/N/21/Q3
17 A bag contains 5 yellow and 4 green marbles. Three marbles are selected at random from the bag,
without replacement.

5.
(a) Show that the probability that exactly one of the marbles is yellow is 14 [3]
The random variable X is the number of yellow marbles selected.
(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]
(c) Find E X
. [1]
9709/52/F/M/22/Q1
18 A fair red spinner has edges numbered 1, 2, 2, 3. A fair blue spinner has edges numbered −3, −2, −1, −1.
Each spinner is spun once and the number on the edge on which each spinner lands is noted. The
random variable X denotes the sum of the resulting two numbers.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(b) Given that E X
= 0.25, find the value of Var X
. [2]
(c) Given that an estimate of the mean time is 61.05 minutes, state what feature of the distribution
accounts for the median and the mean being different. [1]
9709/52/M/J/22/Q2
19 A fair 6-sided die has the numbers 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 on its faces. The die is rolled twice. The random
variable X denotes the sum of the two numbers obtained.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(b) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]

9709/53/M/J/22/Q3
20 The random variable X takes the values −2, 1, 2, 3. It is given that P X = x
= kx2 , where k is a
constant.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , giving the probabilities as numerical fractions.
[3]
(b) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
9709/51/O/N/22/Q1
21 The probability distribution table for a random variable X is shown below.

x −2 −1 0.5 1 2
P X = x
0.12 p q 0.16 0.3

Given that E X
= 0.28, find the value of p and the value of q. [4]
9709/52/F/M/22/Q2
22 Alisha has four coins. One of these coins is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is 0.6.
The other three coins are fair. Alisha throws the four coins at the same time. The random variable X
denotes the number of heads obtained.

(a) Show that the probability of obtaining exactly one head is 0.225. [3]
(b) Complete the following probability distribution table for X . [2]

x 0 1 2 3 4

P X = x
0.05 0.225 0.075

(c) Given that E X
= 2.1, find the value of Var X
. [2]

9709/52/M/J/23/Q1
23 The random variable X takes the values −2, 2 and 3. It is given that
P X = x
= k x2 − 1
,
where k is a constant.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , giving the probabilities as numerical fractions.
[3]
(b) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
9709/53/M/J/23/Q3
24 The random variable X takes the values 1, 2, 3, 4. It is given that P X = x
= kx x + a
, where k and a
are constants.

(a) Given that P X = 4
= 3P X = 2
, find the value of a and the value of k. [4]
(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , giving the probabilities as numerical fractions.
[1]
(c) Given that E X
= 3.2, find Var X
. [2]

9709/51/O/N/23/Q5
25 A red spinner has four sides labelled 1, 2, 3, 4. When the spinner is spun, the score is the number
on the side on which it lands. The random variable X denotes this score. The probability distribution
table for X is given below.

x 1 2 3 4
P X = x
0.28 p 2p 3p

(a) Show that p = 0.12. [1]

A fair blue spinner and a fair green spinner each have four sides labelled 1, 2, 3, 4. All three spinners
(red, blue and green) are spun at the same time.

(b) Find the probability that the sum of the three scores is 4 or less. [3]
(c) Find the probability that the product of the three scores is 4 or less given that X is odd. [5]

9709/52/O/N/23/Q1
26 A competitor in a throwing event has three attempts to throw a ball as far as possible. The random
variable X denotes the number of throws that exceed 30 metres. The probability distribution table for
X is shown below.

x 0 1 2 3
P X = x
0.4 p r 0.15

(a) Given that E X
= 1.1, find the value of p and the value of r. [3]
(b) Find the numerical value of Var X
. [2]

9709/53/O/N/23/Q1
27 Becky sometimes works in an office and sometimes works at home. The random variable X denotes
the number of days that she works at home in any given week. It is given that
P X = x
= kx x + 1
,
where k is a constant and x = 1, 2, 3 or 4 only.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , giving the probabilities as numerical fractions.
[3]
(b) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
1(i) B1 Probability distribution table with correct values of x, no additional
x −1 2 3 values unless with probability 0 stated, at least one correct
probability including k
p k 4k 9k

15k = 1, M1 Equating Σp = 1, may be implied by answer

1 A1 If 0 scored, SCB2 for probability distribution table with correct

k= numerical probabilities.
15

(ii) Method 1

35 7 B1FT FT if 0< their k<1

E(X) = 8k + 27k = 35k = =
15 3

Var(X) = ( k + k +16k + 81k ) − ( 35k )

2 M1 Correct formula for variance, in terms of k at least – must have ‘–
mean2’(ft).

52 A1
= 1.16 ,
45

Method 2

8 27 35 7 B1FT FT if 0< their k<1

E(X) = + = =
15 15 15 3

1 1 16 81  7 
2 M1 Subst their values in correct var formula – must have
Var(X) = + + + −  ‘– mean2’(ft) (condone probs not summing to exactly 1)
15 15 15 15  3 

= 1.16 (= 52/45) A1 Using their values from (i)

3
2(i) B1 Probability distribution table with correct scores, allow extra score
score 1 2 3 6 9 values if probability of zero stated
prob 3 4 4 1 2 1 B1 2 probabilities (with correct score) correct
15 15 15 15 15 15
B1 3 or more correct probabilities with correct scores

B1 FT Σp = 1, at least 4 probabilities

(ii) (3 + 8 + 12 + 4 +12 + 9) 48 B1
mean = = (3.2)
15 15

(3 + 16 + 36 +16 + 72 + 81) M1 FT Substitute their attempts at scores in correct var formula,

− ( their 3.2 )
2
Var
Var must have “– mean2 ” (condone probabilities not summing to 1)
15

224  352  A1
= – 3.22 = 4.69  
15  75 

(iii) Score of 4, 6, 9 M1 Identifying relevant scores from their mean and their table

4 A1 Correct answer
Prob (0.267)
15
SC B1 for 4/15 with no working

2
 3(i) 1 3 M1 Unsimplified sum of probabilities equated to 1
+ + p + p + + 4p =1
4 8

1 A1 If method FT from their incorrect (i), expressions for E(X) and

p= Var(X) must be seen unsimplified with all probabilities <1,
16
condone not adding to 1

(ii) 1 1 6 25 M1 May be implied by use in Variance, accept unsimplified

[E(X)] = − + + +1 =
4 16 8 16

1 1 12 16  25 
2 M1 Substitute into correct variance formula, must have
[Var(X)] = + + −  their  ‘– their mean2’
4 16 8 4  16 

863 A1 OE
or 3.37
256

(iii) 3 M1 Conditional probability formula used consistent with their

P ( X = 2) probabilities
P(X = 2|X >0) = = 8
P(X > 0) 11
16

6 A1
or 0.545
11

2
4(i) B1 Table with correct values of x, at least 1 probability, all
probabilities ⩽ 1
x –1 0 1 3 4

p 1 1 3 2 3 2
12 12 12 12 12 12

B1 2 probabilities correct, may not be in table

B1 2 more probabilities correct, may not be in table

B1 All correct, values in table

SC1 No more than 1 correct probability and at least 5
probabilities summing to 1 in table

(ii)  −1 + 0 + 3 + 4 + 9 + 8  23 M1 May be implied by use in variance. Allow unsimplified

[E(X)] =  = expression
 12  12

1 + 0 + 3 + 8 + 27 + 32 ( = 71)  23  2 M1 Appropriate variance formula using their E(X)2

[Var(X)] = − 
12  12 

323 35 A1 CAO
2.24 or or 2
144 144

3
5(i) 3 2 3 B1 OE
P(RR) = × =
8 7 28

(ii) P(RW) + P(WR) M1 Method shown, numerical calculations identified, may

3 5 5 3 include replacements
× + ×
8 7 8 7

15 A1 AG, Fully correct calculations

=
28

Alternative method for question 6(ii)

1 – (P(RR) + P(WW) M1 Method shown, numerical calculations identified, may

 3 5 4 include replacements
1−  + × 
 28 8 7 

15 A1 AG, Fully correct calculations

=
28

(iii) 3 2 3 M1 Conditional probability formula used consistent with their

× probabilities or correct
their (i) 8 7
P(first red|second red) = = = 28
5 3 3 2 5 3 21
their (i) + × × + ×
8 7 8 7 8 7 56

2 A1 OE
=
7

2
(iv) B1 Probability distribution table with correct values of x and at
x 0 1 2
least one correct probability placed. Extra x values allowed
with probability of zero stated.
p 10 15 3
28 28 28

B1FT Fully correct

FT P(2) = their (i), P(1) = their (ii), Σ(p) = 1.

(v) 30 12 42  3  B1 May be implied by use in variance formula

E(X) = + = = 
56 56 46  4 

30 24  3
2 M1 Substitute into correct variance formula, must have
Var(X) = + −  their  ‘ – their mean2’
56 56  4
Must be for 2 or more non-zero x-values

45 A1 Correct final answer

or 0.402
112

3
6(a) 2 3
 1  2   1  2   1  2 
4 M1 One correct term with 0 < p < 1
   +    +   
 3  3   3  3   3  3 

4 8 16  2432  A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified

= + + = 
27 81 243  7776 

76 A1
= or 0.313
243

(b) B1 Probability distribution table with correct values of x, no

x 0 1 2 3
additional values unless with probability of 0 stated, at least
one non-zero probability included
8 12 6 1
P(x)
27 27 27 27

2
3 B1 1 correct probability seen (may not be in table)
P(0) =   or 3 or 4 non-zero probabilities summing to 1
3
2
 1  2 
P(1) =    × 3 B1 All probabilities correct
 3  3 
2
 2  1 
P(2) =    × 3
 3  3 
3
1
P(3) =  
3

(c)  8 12 6 1 M1 Correct method from their probability distribution table with at

E(X) = 0 ×  + 1 × + 2× + 3× least 3 terms, 0 ⩽ their P(x) ⩽ 1, accept unsimplified
 27  27 27 27
 0  12 12 3
=  + + +
 27  27 27 27

=1 A1

2
7(a) M1
1 1 2 3

1 1 1 2 3

2 2 2 2 3

3 3 3 3 3

7 A1
AG
15

(b) B1
x 1

Probability 2 6 7
15 15 15

P(1) or P(2) correct B1

3rd probability correct, FT sum to 1 B1

(c) 2 + 12 + 21 35 7 B1
E(X) = = =
15 15 3

2 M1
12 × 2 + 22 × 6 + 32 × 7  7 
Var(X) = − 
15  3

22 A1
( 0.489 )
45

3
8(a)
–1 0 0 1

0 1 1 2

2 3 3 4

x –1 0 1 2 3 4

Probability 1 3 3 2 2 1
12 12 12 12 12 12

Probability distribution table with correct scores with at least one probability B1

At least 4 probabilities correct B1

All probabilities correct B1

b −1 + 0 + 3 + 4 + 6 + 4 16 4 B1
E(X) = = =
12 12 3
2 M1
1 + 0 + 3 + 8 +18 +16  4 
Var(X) = − 
12 3

37 A1
(= 2.06)
18

3
9(a) B1
y 1 2 4 1 2 3 4

7 5 3 1 1 1 1 2 3
prob
16 16 16 16
2 1 2 1 2

3 2 1 3 1

4 3 2 1 4

Probability distribution table with correct scores with at least

one probability, allow extra score values if probability of zero
stated’

B1 One probability (linked with correct score) correct

B1 2 more probs (linked with correct scores) correct

B1 FT 4th prob correct, FT sum of 3 or 4 terms = 1

(b) 5 M1 their P ( 2 )
seen or correct outcome space.
P(2|even) = 16 their P ( 2 ) + their P ( 4 )
6
16

5 A1
or 0·833
6

2
10(a) 5 3 2 M1 a b c 5 3 2
P(1 red) = × × ×3 × × × k or × × × 3 , 1⩽ a,b,c ⩽ 5, d ,e ,f ⩽8, a, b, c,
8 7 6 8 7 6 d e f
d, e, f, k all integers.1 < k ⩽ 3,

15 A1 AG, WWW
56

Alternative method for question 2(a)

5
C1 × 3 C2 M1 a
C1 × b C2 5
C d × 3 Ce
8 8
or 8
or
C3 C3 C3
5
(
Cd × 3 Ce or a C1 × b C 2 ) ,
5
C3 × C0 + C2 C1 + C1 × C 2 + 5 C0 × 3 C3
3 5 3 5 3

a + b = 8, d + e = 3

15 A1 15
AG, WWW, must be seen
56 56

(b) B1 Probability distribution table with correct outcomes with at least

x 0 1 2 3
one probability less than 1, allow extra outcome values if
Prob. probability of zero stated.
1 15 30 15 10 5
= =
56 56 56 28 56 28 B1 2 of P(0), P(2) and P(3) correct
0·0179 0·268 0·536 0·179 B1 FT 4th probability correct or FT sum of 3 or more probabilities = 1,
with P(1) correct

(c) (02 × 1) + 12 ×15 + 22 × 30 + 32 ×10  15 

2 M1 Substitute their attempts at scores in correct variance formula,
Var(X) = −  must have ‘ – mean2’ (FT if mean calculated) (condone
56 8 probabilities not summing to 1 for this mark)
2
15 120 90  15 
= + + − 
56 56 56  8 

225 A1
, 0·502
448

2
11(a
()a) Scenar M1 One 3 factor probability with 3, 3, 5 as denominators
2 2 1 4
HHT: × × = M1 3 factor probabilities for 2 or 3 correct scenarios added, no
3 3 5 45
2 1 4 8 incorrect scenarios
HTH: × × =
3 3 5 45
1 2 4 8
THH: × × =
3 3 5 45

20 4 A1 AG, Total of 3 products with clear context

Total = =
45 9

(b) B1 Probability distribution table with correct outcomes with at least

x 0 1 2
one probability, allow extra outcome values if probability of
Prob. zero stated’
1 8 20 16
45 45 45 45 B1 2 of P(0), P(1) and P(3) correct

B1 FT 3 or 4 probabilities sum to 1 with P(2) correct

(c) 02 × 1 + 12 × 8 + 22 × 20 + 32 × 16  32 
2 M1 Substitute their attempts at scores in correct variance formula,
Var(X) = −  must have ‘– mean2’ (FT if calculated) (condone probs not
45  15  summing to 1); must be at least 2 non-zero values
2
8 80 144  32 
= + + − 
45 45 45  15 

136 A1
or 0.604
225

2
12(a) B1 Table with × values and one correct probability expressed in
x 1 2 3 4
terms of k.
prob 4k 6k 6k 4k Condone any additional × values if probability stated as 0.

B1 Remaining 3 probabilities correct expressed in terms of k –

condone if the first correct probability is not in table.

(b) 1 B1 Correct value for k SOI. May be calculated in 4(a).

[4 k + 6 k + 6 k + 4k = 1] k = ( = 0.05 ) SC B1 If denominator 20k used throughout.
20

4 6 6 4 4 12 18 16 M1 Accept unsimplified expression.

E ( X ) = 1× + 2× + 3× + 4× = + + + Condone 4k + 12k + 18k + 16k.
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
( = 2.5) May be implied by use in Variance expression.
Special ruling: Allow use of denominator 20k.

4 1
2 M1 Appropriate variance formula with their numerical
Var ( X ) = 12 × 4 + 2 2 × 6 + 32 × 6 + 42 × −  their 2  probabilities using their (E(X))2, accept unsimplified, with
20 20 20 20  2 their k substituted.
2
= ( 4 + 24 + 54 + 64 ) × their0.05 − ( their 2.5 )
Or Special ruling: If denominator 20k used throughout, accept
4 6 6 4 appropriate variance formula in terms of k.
(1 − 2.5 )2 × 2
+ ( 2 − 2.5 ) ×
2
+ ( 3 − 2.5 ) ×
2
+ ( 4 − 2.5 ) ×
20 20 20 20

1∙05 A1 AG, NFWW.

13(a) 4 3 3 M1 m n o 1
P ( X = 3) = × × × × used throughout. condone use of
7 6 5 7 6 5 2

6 A1 A
35 The fractions must be identified, e.g. P(NC, NC, C), may
be seen in a tree diagram.

2
(b) B1 Tabl with x values and at least one probability
x 1 2 3 4 5
Condone any additional x values if probability stated as
15 10 6 3 1 0.
p
35 35 35 35 35
B1 One correct probability other than X = 3 linked to the
correct outcome

B1 Two further correct probabilities other than X = 3 seen

linked to the correct outcome

B1FT All probabilities correct, or at least 4 probabilities

summing to 1

(c) 15 10 6 3 1 M1 At least 4 correct terms FT their values in (a) with

[E(X) = 1× + + + + ] probabilities summing to 1
35 35 35 35 35
May be implied by use in Variance, accept unsimplified
expression.
15 + 20 +18 + 12 + 5  70 
E(X ) =  = = 2
35  35 

12 × 15 + 22 × 10 + 32 × 6 + 42 × 3 + 52 × 1 2  M1 Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2.

Var ( X ) =  −2 = FT their table accept probabilities not summing to 1.
 35 
15 + 40 + 54 + 48 + 25 2
−2
35

 182  6 A1 N.B. If method FT for M marks from their incorrect (b),

 = 35 − 4  = 5 expressions for E(X) and Var(X) must be seen
 
unsimplified with all probabilities <1

3
14(a) B1 Table with correct X values and at least one probability
X –1 0 1 2 3
Condone any additional X values if probability stated as 0.
1 2 1 3 2
P(X) B1 2 correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes, may not be
9 9 9 9 9 in table.

B1 3 further correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes, may

not be in table.

SC if less than 2 correct probabilities seen, award

SCB1 for sum of their 4 or 5 probabilities in table = 1

(b)  −1 × 1 + ( 0 × 2 ) + 1 × 1 + 2 × 3 + 3× 2  M1 May be implied by use in variance, accept unsimplified

E ( X ) = = expression.
 9  FT their table if their 3 or more probabilities sum to 1 or 0.999
−1 + 1+ 6 + 6
9

[Var (X) =] M1 Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2 value.

FT their table even if their 3 or more probabilities not summing

( )
 −12 × 1 + 02 × 2 +12 × 1 + 22 × 3 + 32 × 2 2
− ( their E ( X ) ) 

to 1.
 9 
 
1 + 0 +1+12 +18 2
− ( their E ( X ) )
9

4 16 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified

E(X ) = or 1.33 and Var ( X ) = or 1.78
3 9

15 p + p + 0.1 + q + q = 1 B1 Sum of probabilities = 1

0.1 + 2q = 3(2p) B1 Use given information

Attempt to solve two correct equations in p and q M1 Either use of Substitution method to form a single
equation in either p or q and finding values for both
unknowns.
Or use of Elimination method by writing both
equations in same form (usually ap + bq = c ) and +
or – to find an equation in one unknown and finding
values for both unknowns.

1 13 A1 CAO, both WWW

p= or 0.125 and q = or 0.325
8 40

4
16(a) x -1 0 1 2 3 B1 0 1 2 2
p 1 2 4 3 2
= 0.0833 = 0.167 = 0.333 = 0.25 = 0.167
12 12 12 12 12 –1 –1 0 1 1

0 0 1 2 2

1 1 2 3 3

Table with x values and at least one probability

substituted, 0 < p < 1.
Condone any additional x values if probability stated as 0.

B1 2 correct identified probabilities.

B1 All probabilities correct (accept to 3sf).

SC if less than 2 correct probabilities:

SC B1 4 or 5 probabilities summing to one.

(b) 1 4 6 6  15  M1 May be implied by use in Variance, accept unsimplified

E(X) = − + + + = expression.
12 12 12 12  12 
Probabilities must sum to 1 ± 0.001.

1 4 12 18  15 
2 M1 Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2 . FT
Var (X) = +0+ + + −  accept probabilities not summing to 1.
12 12 12 12  12  2
35  15  35 25
Condone −   or − from correct table.
12  12  12 9

 35 25  65 A1 WWW
 12 − 16 =  48 , 1.35
 

3
17(a) For one yellow: YGG + GYG +GGY M1 a b c
× × , 0 < a,b,c integers ⩽ 5, for one arrangement.
5 4 3 9 8 7
× × ×3
9 8 7
M1 Their three-factor probability × 3, 3C1, 3C2 or 3P1, (or repeated adding)
no additional terms.

 180  5 A1 AG. Convincingly shown, including identifying possible scenarios,

 504 =  14 may be on tree diagram WWW.
 

Alternative method for question 3(a)

5
C1 × 4 C2 M1 5
C1 × 4 C2
9 9
, r = 2, 3, 4
C3 Cr

M1 5
Cs × 4 Ct
9
,s+t=3
C3

 30  5 A1 AG. Convincingly shown, WWW.

 84 =  14
 

3
(b) B1 Table with correct X values and one correct probability inserted
X 0 1 2 3
appropriately.
Condone any additional X values if probability stated as 0.
P(X) 24 180 240 60
504 504 504 504 B1 Second identified correct probability, may not be in table.
 1   5   10   5 
 = 21 ,   = 14 ,   = 21 ,   = 42 ,  B1 All probabilities identified and correct .
       
 0.0476   0.357   0.476   0.119 
SC if less than 2 correct probabilities or X value(s) omitted:
SC B1 3 or 4 probabilities summing to one.

(c) 840 5 B1 OE Must be evaluated.

[E(X) =] , , 1.67 SC B1 FT correct unsimplified expression from incorrect 3(b) using at
504 3
least 3 probabilities, 0 < p < 1.

1
18(a) B1 Table with correct X values and at least one probability
X −2 −1 0 1 2 0 < p <1. Condone any additional X values if probability
stated as 0. No repeated X values.
P(X) 1 3 5 5 2
16 16 16 16 16 B1 3 correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes, may not
be in table.
0.0625 0.1875 0.3125 0.3125 0.125
B1 2 further correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes,
may not be in table
No repeated X values.

SC if less than 3 correct probabilities seen, award

SCB1 Sum of their probabilities, 0 < p <1, of 4,5 or 6 X
values = 1 (condone summing to 1±0∙01 or better).

(b) 1 2 M1 Appropriate variance formula using (E(X))2 value, accept

2 3 2 5 2 5 2 2 2 1 
 × −2 + × −1  + × 0  + × 1 + × 2 −    unsimplified. FT their table with at least 3 different X values
16 16  16  16 16  4   even if probabilities not summing to 1, 0 < p < 1.
1× 4 + 3 × 1 + 5 × 0 + 5 × 1 + 2 × 4 Condone 1 error providing all probabilities <1 and 0.252 used
− 0.252
16

 5 1  19 A1 Condone 1.188 or 1.19 WWW

 = 4 − 16 =  16 , 1.1875
 

19(a) B1 Table with correct X values and at least one probability.

x 2 3 4 5 6
Condone any additional X values if probability stated as 0.
p 1 4 10 12 9
B1 3 correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes.
36 36 36 36 36 Accept 3 sf decimals.
0.02778 0.1111 0.2778 0.3333 0.25 B1 2 further correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes.
Accept 3 sf decimals.

3 SC B1 for 5 probabilities (0 < p <1) that sum to 1 with less than

3 correct probabilities.
(b) If method FT from their incorrect (a), expressions for E(X) and Var(X) must be seen at the stage shown in bold (or less simplified) in the scheme
with all probabilities < 1.

 1 2  4  3  10  4 12  5  9  6  2  12  40  60  54 M1 Accept unsimplified expression. May be calculated in variance.

E  X   36

36 FT their table with 4 or more probabilities summing to
 
0.999 ⩽ total ⩽ 1 (0 < p <1).

 1  22  4  32 10  42  12  52  9  62 2  M1 Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2 value.

 Var  X     their E  X     FT their table with 3 or more probabilities (0 < p <1) which
 36  need not sum to 1 and the calculation in bold (or less
1  4  4  9  10  16  12  25  9  36  14 
2
simplified) seen.
  their 
36  3 
2
 4  36 160  300  324  14  
   their  
 36  3  

168 14 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified.

E X   , , 4.67 E(X) may be identified by correct use in Variance.
36 3
Condone E, V, μ, σ2 etc.
10 1 1440
Var  X   , 1 , 1.11, If M0 earned SC B1 for identified correct final answers.
9 9 1296

20(a) 1 B1 SOI
k (4k+ k +4k +9k = 18k = 1)
18

M1 Table with correct x values and at least one

x 2 1 2 3
probability accurate using their k.
Values need not be in order, lines may not be
4 1 4 9
P(X=x) drawn, may be vertical, x and P(X=x) may be
18 18 18 18 omitted.
Condone any additional X values if probability
stated as 0.

A1 Remaining probabilities correct.

3
(b)  4  2  1  1  4  2  9  3  M1 8k  k  8k  27k
E  X   18
 May be implied by use in Variance. Accept
 
unsimplified expression.
8  1  8  27
FT their table if probabilities sum to 1 or 0.999.
18 SC B1 28k.

 4  (2) 2  1 12  4  22  9  32  M1 16k  k 16k  81k  (their mean)2

  their E  X  
2
 Var  X    FT their table even if probabilities not summing to
 18  1.
2
16  1 16  81  28  114
  their E  X   M1.
2
=   their  Note: If table is correct,
18  18  18
SC B1 114k – (their mean)2.

14 5 317 74 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified.

E(X) = , 1 , 1.56 , Var (X) = , 3 , 3.91
9 9 81 81 3.91 ⩽ Var(X) ⩽ 3.914

21 0.12 + p + q + 0.16 + 0.3 =1 B1 Sum of probabilities = 1

p +q = 0.42 OE.

−0.24 − p + 0.5q + 0.16 + 0.6 = 0.28 B1 Form equation using E(X) = 0.28
−p + 0.5q = −0.24 OE.
Accept unsimplified.

Attempt to solve their two equations in p and q M1 Either Substitution method to form a single equation in either p or
q and finding values for both unknowns.
Or Elimination method by writing both equations in the same
form (usually ap + bq = c) and + or – to find an equation in one
unknown and finding values for both unknowns.

q = 0.12, p = 0.3 A1 CAO, both WWW.

If M0 awarded SC B1 for both correct WWW.

4
22(a) [P(>2) = 1 – P(0,1,2) =] M1 One term 7Cx p x (1 − p )7 − x , 0 < p <1,0 < x < 7
1 – (7C0 0.180 0.827 + 7C1 0.181 0.826 + 7C2 0.182 0.825 )

= 1 – (0.249285 + 0.383048 + 0.252251) A1 Correct unsimplified expression or better

= 1 – 0.88458 Condone omission of brackets if recovered

0.115 B1 WWW. 0∙115 ⩽ p < 0∙1155 not from wrong working

(b) 7
[P(at least 1 day of rain) = 1 – P(0) = 1 − ( 0.82 ) =] 0.7507 B1 AWRT 0.751 seen

[P(exactly 2 periods) =] 0.7507 2 × (1 − 0.7507 ) × 3 M1 FT their 1− p 7 or their 0.7507 if identified, not 0.18, 0.82
Accept ×3Cr, r=1,2 or ×3P1 for ×3
Condone ×2

0.421 A1 Accept 0.421 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.4215

SC B1 if 0/3 scored for final answer only
0.421 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.4215

3
23(a) 1 B1
3k  3k  8k  1, so k 
14

B1 FT Table with correct values of x, and at least one correct

x 2 2
probability linked with outcome. FT their k.
Condone any additional X values if probability stated as
3 3 8
P(x) , 0.214 ,0.214 ,0.571 0.
14 14 14
B1 FT The outcomes in the table must be –2, 2 and 3.
2 further correct probabilities in table
or 3 correct probabilities not in table linked to outcomes,
or 3 correct FT probabilities in table using their k,
or 3 incorrect probabilities summing to 1 in table if k not
stated.

If k not calculated, SC B1 for the below.

x 2 2 3

P(x)) k 3k 8k

(b)  3 3 8  M1 Accept unsimplified expression. May be calculated in

 E  X   2  14  2  14  3  14   variance.
 
FT their table with 3 probabilities summing to 0.999 ⩽
6 6 24 total ⩽ 1 (0 < p < 1) or in terms of k.
  
14 14 14

 3 3 8  M1 Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2 value.

 Var  X   (2)  14  2  14  3  14   their E  X  
2 2 2 2
 FT their table with 3 or more probabilities (0 < p < 1)
 
2
which need not sum to 1, or in terms of k with an
3 3 8  12  expression no more evaluated than shown.
4  4   9    their 
14 14 14  7
2
12  12  72  12  
   their  
 14  7  

12 5 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified. E(X)

E(X) = , 1.71, 1 may be identified by correct use in Variance (condone E,
7 7
V, μ, σ2, etc.).
192 45
Var(X) = , 3.92, 3 If A0 earned, SC B1 for identified correct final answers.
49 49

3
24(a)
(a) X = 4) = 3P(X = 2)] M1 Using P(X = 4) = 3P(X = 2) to form an equation in a and k.
4k  4  a   3 2k  2  a 
16k + 4ak = 12k + 6ak

a2 A1 If M0 scored, SC B1 for a = 2 www.

3k  8k 15k  24k  1 M1 Using sum of probabilities = 1 to form an equation in k:

k (1 + a) + 2k (2 + a) + 3k (3 + a)+ 4k (4 + a) = 1.

1 A1 1
k If M0 scored, SC B1 for k  www.
50 50

(b) B1 FT
X 1 2 3 X 1 2 3 4

P(X) 3 8 15 24 P(X) k (1 + a) 2k (2 + a) 3k (3 + a) 4k (4 + a)
,0.06 , 0.16 , 0.3 , 0.48
50 50 50 50
0 < p < 1 for all outcomes, must be numerical.

(c) 3 8 15 24 M1 Correct formula for variance method from their probability

Var(X) =  1   22   32   42  3.22 distribution table, 0 ⩽ their P(x) ⩽ 1.
50 50 50 50
3  32 135  384 256
Accept  .
50 25

21 A1 If M0 score SC B1 for 0.84 www.

[= 11.08 – 3.22 =] 0.84[0],
25

2
25(a) 0.28 + 6 p = 1, p = 0.12 B1 Using sum of probabilities = 1 to form an equation.
Accept 0.28 + p + 2p + 3p = 1, p = 0.12.
Substitution of 0.12 into the expression scores B0.

(b) [For fair spinners (blue and green), probability of any score is 0.25 B1 Correct probability for 1 identified scenario, accept unsimplified,
Scenarios to give total 4 or less:] www.
R B G
M1 Add values of 4 correct scenarios, may be implied by correct
unsimplified expressions. No incorrect/repeated scenarios.
1 1 2 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175
2

1 2 1 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 1 1 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

2 1 1 0.12 ( 0.25) = 0.0075

2

0.06 A1 If A0 scored, SC B1 for 0.06 www.

3
(c) [P(X is odd) = 0.28 + 2×0.12 or 0.24 ]= 0.52[0] B1 Seen alone or as the denominator of a conditional probability
fraction. Accept unsimplified.

M1 Values of at least 5 identified correct scenarios added, accept

R B G
unsimplified, condone incorrect scenarios in calculation.
1 1 1 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175
2

1 1 2 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 1 3 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 1 4 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 2 1 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 2 2 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 3 1 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

1 4 1 0.28 ( 0.25) = 0.0175

2

3 1 1 0.24  ( 0.25) = 0.015

2

[P(product of 3 scores ⩽ 4 ∩ X is odd) = ] 0.28 ( 0.25) 8 + 0.24  ( 0.25 ) M1 0.28 ( 0.25)  x + 0.24 ( 0.25) ,
2 2 2 2

or 0.0175 × x + 0.015 where x = 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8.

Seen alone or as numerator/denominator of a conditional probability
fraction.
26(a) p + r + 0.55 =1 M1 Using sum of probabilities = 1 to form an
equation.
Accept p + r = 0.45 oe.

p + 2r + 0.45 =1.1 M1 Use E(X ) = 1.1 to form an equation.

Accept p + 2r = 0.65 oe.
NB: These marks can be gained in either
order; the second M may have an algebraic
substitution.

p = 0.25, r = 0.2 A1 If both Ms not awarded, SC B1 for

p = 0.25, r = 0.2 stated.

(b) [Var(X) =] 0.4  02 +  their 0.25 12  + ( their 0.2 )  22 + 0.1532 −1.12 M1 Correct formula for variance method using
their probability distribution table, 0 < their
[=[0+] 0.25 + 0.8 + 1.35 – 1.21] P(x) < 1.

19 A1 If M0 awarded, SC B1 for 1.19 www.

= 1.19, 1
100 119
is A0.
100

2
27(a)  1 M1 Using sum of probabilities = 1 to form an equation in k.
2k + 6k + 12k + 20k = 1, k =  Accept 1×2×k + 2×3×k + 3×4×k + 4×5×k = 1.
 40 

X 1 2 3 4 M1 X 1 2 3 4
2 6 12 20 P(X) 2k 6k 12k 20k
P(X)
40 40 40 40 Two correctly linked, accurate probabilities. May be in terms of k.
0.05 0.15 0.3 0.5 May not be in a table.

A1 Table with correct X values and correct probabilities.

(b) 1 2 + 2  6 + 312 + 4 20 2 +12 + 36 + 80 [E(X) = 1 2k + 2  6k + 3 12k + 4  20k = 130k ]

[E(X ) =] [E(X ) = ]
40 40 M1 Accept unsimplified expression. May be calculated in variance. FT
their table with 3 or more probabilities summing to 1 (0 < p < 1).
If there are outcomes in the table without probabilities, condone
and treat as p = 0.

 12  2 + 22  6 + 32 12 + 42  20  [Var(X) = 12  2k + 22 6k + 32 12k + 42  20k − (130k ) ]

2

Var(X ) = − (their E(X ))2 =  M1

 40  Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2 value. FT their
1 2 + 4  6 + 912 +16 20 
2
13  table with 3 or more probabilities (0 < p < 1) which need not sum
−  their 
40  4 to 1 and the highlighted calculation (or less simplified) seen,
Note: if table is correct,
 2 + 24 + 108 + 320  13  
2

 −   454  227 
 40


their
4    or or any calculation  − (their E ( X ))2 implies M1.
40  20 

13 1 63 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified. E(X) may be

E(X ) = ,3 , 3.05 Var(X) = , 0.7875
4 4 80 identified by correct use in variance. Condone E, V, μ, σ etc.
If A0 earned, SC B1 for identified correct final solutions.