9709/62/M/J/19/Q3

1 The probability that Janice will buy an item online in any week is 0.35. Janice does not buy more than
one item online in any week.

(i) Find the probability that, in a 10-week period, Janice buys at most 7 items online. [3]
(ii) The probability that Janice buys at least one item online in a period of n weeks is greater than 0.99.
Find the smallest possible value of n. [3]
9709/61/O/N/19/Q2
2 Annan has designed a new logo for a sportswear company. A survey of a large number of customers
found that 42% of customers rated the logo as good.

(i) A random sample of 10 customers is chosen. Find the probability that fewer than 8 of them rate
the logo as good. [3]
(ii) On another occasion, a random sample of n customers of the company is chosen. Find the
smallest value of n for which the probability that at least one person rates the logo as good is
greater than 0.995. [3]
9709/51/M/J/20/Q3
3 A company produces small boxes of sweets that contain 5 jellies and 3 chocolates. Jemeel chooses
3 sweets at random from a box.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for the number of jellies that Jemeel chooses. [4]
The company also produces large boxes of sweets. For any large box, the probability that it contains
more jellies than chocolates is 0.64. 10 large boxes are chosen at random.

(b) Find the probability that no more than 7 of these boxes contain more jellies than chocolates. [3]

9709/53/M/J/20/Q2
4 In a certain large college, 22% of students own a car.

(a) 3 students from the college are chosen at random. Find the probability that all 3 students own a
car. [1]
(b) 16 students from the college are chosen at random. Find the probability that the number of these
students who own a car is at least 2 and at most 4. [3]

9709/51/O/N/20/Q3
5 Kayla is competing in a throwing event. A throw is counted as a success if the distance achieved is
greater than 30 metres. The probability that Kayla will achieve a success on any throw is 0.25.

(a) Find the probability that Kayla takes more than 6 throws to achieve a success. [2]
(b) Find the probability that, for a random sample of 10 throws, Kayla achieves at least 3 successes.
[3]
9709/52/O/N/20/Q1
6 A fair six-sided die, with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, is thrown repeatedly until a 4 is obtained.

(a) Find the probability that obtaining a 4 requires fewer than 6 throws. [2]
On another occasion, the die is thrown 10 times.

(b) Find the probability that a 4 is obtained at least 3 times. [3]

9709/53/O/N/20/Q2
7 An ordinary fair die is thrown until a 6 is obtained.

(a) Find the probability that obtaining a 6 takes more than 8 throws. [2]
Two ordinary fair dice are thrown together until a pair of 6s is obtained. The number of throws taken
is denoted by the random variable X .

(b) Find the expected value of X . [1]

(c) Find the probability that obtaining a pair of 6s takes either 10 or 11 throws. [2]

9709/52/F/M/21/Q1
8 A fair spinner with 5 sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 is spun repeatedly. The score on each spin is the
number on the side on which the spinner lands.

(a) Find the probability that a score of 3 is obtained for the first time on the 8th spin. [1]
(b) Find the probability that fewer than 6 spins are required to obtain a score of 3 for the first time.
9709/52/M/J/21/Q1
9 An ordinary fair die is thrown repeatedly until a 5 is obtained. The number of throws taken is denoted
by the random variable X .

(a) Write down the mean of X . [1]

(b) Find the probability that a 5 is first obtained after the 3rd throw but before the 8th throw. [2]
(c) Find the probability that a 5 is first obtained in fewer than 10 throws. [2]
9709/53/M/J/21/Q4
10 Three fair six-sided dice, each with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, are thrown at the same time,
repeatedly. For a single throw of the three dice, the score is the sum of the numbers on the top faces.

(a) Find the probability that the score is 4 on a single throw of the three dice. [3]
(b) Find the probability that a score of 18 is obtained for the first time on the 5th throw of the three
dice. [3]

9709/51/O/N/21/Q1
11 Two fair coins are thrown at the same time. The random variable X is the number of throws of the
two coins required to obtain two tails at the same time.

(a) Find the probability that two tails are obtained for the first time on the 7th throw. [2]
(b) Find the probability that it takes more than 9 throws to obtain two tails for the first time. [2]

9709/52/O/N/21/Q5
12 In a certain region, the probability that any given day in October is wet is 0.16, independently of other
days.

(a) Find the probability that, in a 10-day period in October, fewer than 3 days will be wet. [3]
(b) Find the probability that the first wet day in October is 8 October. [2]
(c) For 4 randomly chosen years, find the probability that in exactly 1 of these years the first wet day
in October is 8 October. [2]
9709/53/O/N/21/Q6
13 In a game, Jim throws three darts at a board. This is called a ‘turn’. The centre of the board is called
the bull’s-eye.

The random variable X is the number of darts in a turn that hit the bull’s-eye. The probability
distribution of X is given in the following table.

x 0 1 2 3
P X = x
0.6 p q 0.05

It is given that E X
= 0.55.

(a) Find the values of p and q. [4]

(b) Find Var X
. [2]
Jim is practising for a competition and he repeatedly throws three darts at the board.

(c) Find the probability that X = 1 in at least 3 of 12 randomly chosen turns. [3]

(d) Find the probability that Jim first succeeds in hitting the bull’s-eye with all three darts on his 9th
turn. [1]
9709/52/F/M/22/Q2
14 In a certain country, the probability of more than 10 cm of rain on any particular day is 0.18,
independently of the weather on any other day.

(a) Find the probability that in any randomly chosen 7-day period, more than 2 days have more than
10 cm of rain. [3]
(b) For 3 randomly chosen 7-day periods, find the probability that exactly two of these periods have
at least one day with more than 10 cm of rain. [3]

9709/53/M/J/22/Q4
15 Ramesh throws an ordinary fair 6-sided die.

(a) Find the probability that he obtains a 4 for the first time on his 8th throw. [1]
(b) Find the probability that it takes no more than 5 throws for Ramesh to obtain a 4. [2]
Ramesh now repeatedly throws two ordinary fair 6-sided dice at the same time. Each time he adds
the two numbers that he obtains.

(c) For 10 randomly chosen throws of the two dice, find the probability that Ramesh obtains a total
of less than 4 on at least three throws. [4]
9709/52/O/N/22/Q3
16 Three fair 6-sided dice, each with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, are thrown at the same time repeatedly.
The score on each throw is the sum of the numbers on the uppermost faces.

(a) Find the probability that a score of 17 or more is first obtained on the 6th throw. [3]
(b) Find the probability that a score of 17 or more is obtained in fewer than 8 throws. [2]
9709/51/M/J/22/Q4
17 Jacob has four coins. One of the coins is biased such that when it is thrown the probability of obtaining
7 . The other three coins are fair. Jacob throws all four coins once. The number of heads
a head is 10
that he obtains is denoted by the random variable X . The probability distribution table for X is as
follows.

x 0 1 2 3 4
P X = x
3 a b c 7
80 80

(a) Show that a = 15 and find the values of b and c. [4]

(b) Find E X
. [1]
Jacob throws all four coins together 10 times.

(c) Find the probability that he obtains exactly one head on fewer than 3 occasions. [3]
(d) Find the probability that Jacob obtains exactly one head for the first time on the 7th or 8th time
that he throws the 4 coins. [2]
9709/53/O/N/22/Q4
18 Three fair 4-sided spinners each have sides labelled 1, 2, 3, 4. The spinners are spun at the same time
and the number on the side on which each spinner lands is recorded. The random variable X denotes
the highest number recorded.

7.
(a) Show that P X = 2
= 64 [3]
(b) Complete the probability distribution table for X . [2]

x 1 2 3 4
7 19
P X = x

64 64
On another occasion, one of the fair 4-sided spinners is spun repeatedly until a 3 is obtained. The
random variable Y is the number of spins required to obtain a 3.

(c) Find P Y = 6
. [1]

(d) Find P Y > 4
. [2]
9709/52/F/M/23/Q3
19 80% of the residents of Kinwawa are in favour of a leisure centre being built in the town.

20 residents of Kinwawa are chosen at random and asked, in turn, whether they are in favour of the
leisure centre.

(a) Find the probability that more than 17 of these residents are in favour of the leisure centre. [3]
(b) Find the probability that the 5th person asked is the first person who is not in favour of the leisure
centre. [1]
(c) Find the probability that the 7th person asked is the second person who is not in favour of the
leisure centre. [2]
9709/51/M/J/23/Q7
20 A children’s wildlife magazine is published every Monday. For the next 12 weeks it will include a
model animal as a free gift. There are five different models: tiger, leopard, rhinoceros, elephant and
buffalo, each with the same probability of being included in the magazine.

Sahim buys one copy of the magazine every Monday.

(a) Find the probability that the first time that the free gift is an elephant is before the 6th Monday.
[2]
(b) Find the probability that Sahim will get more than two leopards in the 12 magazines. [3]
 (c) Find the probability that after 5 weeks Sahim has exactly one of each animal. [3]

9709/52/M/J/23/Q2
21 A sports event is taking place for 4 days, beginning on Sunday. The probability that it will rain on
Sunday is 0.4. On any subsequent day, the probability that it will rain is 0.7 if it rained on the previous
day and 0.2 if it did not rain on the previous day.

(a) Find the probability that it does not rain on any of the 4 days of the event. [1]
(b) Find the probability that the first day on which it rains during the event is Tuesday. [2]
(c) Find the probability that it rains on exactly one of the 4 days of the event. [3]

9709/52/M/J/23/Q4
22 A fair 5-sided spinner has sides labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The spinner is spun repeatedly until a 2 is
obtained on the side on which the spinner lands. The random variable X denotes the number of spins
required.

(a) Find P X = 4
. [1]

(b) Find P X < 6
. [2]
Two fair 5-sided spinners, each with sides labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, are spun at the same time. If the
numbers obtained are equal, the score is 0. Otherwise, the score is the higher number minus the lower
number.

(c) Find the probability that the score is greater than 0 given that the score is not equal to 2. [3]
The two spinners are spun at the same time repeatedly .

(d) For 9 randomly chosen spins of the two spinners, find the probability that the score is greater
than 2 on at least 3 occasions. [3]
9709/53/M/J/23/Q1
23 Two fair coins are thrown at the same time repeatedly until a pair of heads is obtained. The number
of throws taken is denoted by the random variable X .

(a) State the value of E X
. [1]

(b) Find the probability that exactly 5 throws are required to obtain a pair of heads. [1]
(c) Find the probability that fewer than 7 throws are required to obtain a pair of heads. [2]

9709/51/O/N/23/Q2
24 Hazeem repeatedly throws two ordinary fair 6-sided dice at the same time. On each occasion, the
score is the sum of the two numbers that she obtains.

(a) Find the probability that it takes exactly 5 throws of the two dice for Hazeem to obtain a score of
8 or more. [2]
(b) Find the probability that it takes no more than 4 throws of the two dice for Hazeem to obtain a
score of 8 or more. [2]
(c) For 8 randomly chosen throws of the two dice, find the probability that Hazeem obtains a score
of 8 or more on fewer than 3 occasions. [3]

9709/52/O/N/23/Q2
25 George has a fair 5-sided spinner with sides labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. He spins the spinner and notes the
number on the side on which the spinner lands.

(a) Find the probability that it takes fewer than 7 spins for George to obtain a 5. [2]
George spins the spinner 10 times.

(b) Find the probability that he obtains a 5 more than 4 times but fewer than 8 times. [3]
1(i) P(at most 7) = 1 – P(8, 9, 10) M1 Use of normal approximation M0
= 1 – 10C8(0.35)8(0.65)2 – 10C9(0.35)9(0.65)1 – (0.35)10 Binomial term of form 10Cxpx(1 – p)10 – x 0 < p < 1 any p, x ≠ 10,0

[= 1 – 0.004281 – 0.0005123 – 0.00002759] A1 Correct unsimplified (or individual terms evaluated) answer seen
Condone 1 – A + B + C leading to correct solution

= 0.995 B1 B1 not dependent on previous marks.

Alternative method for question 3(i)

P(at most 7) = P(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7) M1 Binomial term of form 10Cxpx(1 – p)10 – x 0 < p < 1 any p, x ≠ 10,0

= (0.65)10 + 10C1(0.35)1(0.65)9+…+ 10C7(0.35)7(0.65)3 A1 Correct unsimplified answer or individual terms evaluated seen

= 0.995 B1

(ii) 1 – (0.65)n > 0.99 M1 Equation or inequality with (0.65)n and 0.01 or (0.35)n and 0.99 only
0.01 > (0.65)n (Note 1 – 0.99 is equivalent to 0.01 etc.)

n > 10.69 M1 Solving their a n = c, 0 < a,c < 1 using logs or Trial and Error
If answer inappropriate, at least 2 trials are required for Trial and Error M
mark

smallest n = 11 A1 CAO

3
2(i) 1 – (10C2 0.428 0.582 + 10C9 0.429 0.581 + 0.4210) M1 Binomial term of form
10
Capa(1 – p)b 0 < p < 1 any p, 0 ⩽ a,b ⩽ 10

A1 Correct unsimplified expression

0.983 A1

(ii) 1 – P(0) > 0.995 0.58n < 0.005 M1 Equation or inequality involving 0.58n or 0.42n and 0.995 or
0.005

log 0.005 M1 Attempt to solve using logs or Trial and Error. May be implied
n> by their answer (rounded or truncated)
log 0.58
n > 9.727

n = 10 A1 CAO

3
3(a) B1
x 0 3

Probability 1 15 30 10
56 56 56 56

(B1 for probability distribution table with correct outcome values)

3 2 1 1 M1
P(0) = × × =
8 7 6 56
5 3 2 15
P(1) = × × 3=
8 7 6 56
5 4 3 30
P(2) = × × × 3 =
8 7 6 56
5 4 3 10
P(3) = × × =
8 7 6 56
(M1 for denominator 8×7×6)

Any one probability correct (with correct outcome) A1

All probabilities correct A1

(b) 1 – P(8, 9, 10) = 1 –  10 C8 0.6480.362 + 10 C9 0.649 0.361 + 0.6410  M1

1 – (0.164156 + 0.064852 + 0.11529) M1

0.759 A1

3
4(a) 0.223 = 0.0106 B1

(b) P(2, 3, 4) = 16C2 0.222 0.7814 + 16C3 0.2230.7813 + 16C4 0.2240.7812 M1

0.179205 + 0.235877 + 0.216221 A1

0.631 A1

5(a) P(X > 6) = 0.756 M1 pn, n = 6, 7 0 < p < 1

729 A1 0·17797…
0.178,
4096

(b) 1 – P(0, 1, 2) = 1 – ( 0.7510 + 10C1 0.251 0.759 + 10C2 0.252 0.758 ) M1 Binomial term of form 10Cx p x (1 − p )10−x , 0 < p < 1,
any p, x ≠ 0, 10

1 – (0·0563135 + 0·1877117 + 0·2815676) A1 Correct unsimplified expression

0·474 A1 0·474 ⩽ p ⩽ 0·4744

3
6(a) 5
5 M1 1 – pn n = 5,6
1−   or p + pq + pq2+pq3+ pq4 (+ pq5)
6 0 < p < 1, p + q = 1,
2 3
1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1
or + × +   × +   × +   ×
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

4651 A1
0·598,
7776

(b) (1 – P(0, 1, 2)) M1 10 10 − x

Cx p x (1 − p ) , 0 < p < 1, any p, x ≠ 0,10
  5 10 10  1  5 9 10  1  2  5 8 
1 –    + C1    + C2     
 6 
  6  6   6   6  

1 – (0·1615056 + 0·3230111 + 0·290710) A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, condone omission of

final bracket

0·225 A1 0·2247 < p ≤ 0·225, WWW

7(a) 5
8 M1 p8, 0 < p < 1, no x, + or -
 
6

0.233 A1

(b) 36 B1

(c) 9
 35  1  35  1
10 M1 OE, unsimplified expression in form p9 q + p10 q ,
P(X =10) + P(X=11) =   + 
 36  36  36  36 p + q = 1, no ×

0.0425 A1

2
8(a)  4 7 1  16384 B1 Evaluated, final answer.
  =  or 0∙0419[43…]
 5  5  390625

(b) 5 2 3 4 M1 1 – pn n = 5,6
 4 1 4 1 4 1  4 1  4 1
1−   or + ×   × +   × +   × or p + pq + pq2+pq3+ pq4 (+ pq5)
 5 5 5 5 5  5  5  5  5  5 0 < p < 1, p + q = 1,
Sum of a geometric series may be used.

2101 A1 Final answer.

or 0∙672[32]
3125

Alternative method for question 1(b)

[P(at least 1 three scored in 5 throws) =] M1 ( p)5 + 5 C 4 ( p ) 4 ( q ) + 5 C3 ( p )3 ( q ) 2 + 5 C 2 ( p ) 2 ( q )3 + 5 C1 ( p )( q ) 4

5 4 3 2 2 3 4
 1  5  1   4  5  1   4  5  1   4  5  1  4  or
  + C4     + C3     + C2     + C4    ( p ) 6 + 6 C 5 ( p )5 ( q ) + 6 C 4 ( p ) 4 ( q ) 2 + 6 C 3 ( p )3 ( q )3
5 5  5 5  5 5  5  5  5 
+ 6 C 2 ( p ) 2 ( q ) 4 + 6 C1 ( p)(q )5 , 0 < p < 1, p + q = 1
At least first, last and one intermediate term is required to
show pattern of terms if not all terms stated.

2101 A1 Final answer.

or 0∙672[32]
3125

2
9(a)
(a B1 WWW

(b) 3 4
5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1
6 M1 p3(1 – p) + p4(1 – p) + p5(1 – p) + p6(1 – p), 0 < p < 1
  +  +  + 
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

0.300 (0.2996…) A1 At least 3s.f. Award at most accurate value.

Alternative method for Question 1(b)

3
5 5
7 M1 p3 – p7, 0 < p < 1
  − 
6 6

0.300 (0.2996…) A1 At least 3s.f. Award at most accurate value.

(c) 5
9 M1 1 – pn, 0 < p < 1, n = 9, 10
1−  
6

0.806 A1

Alternative method for Question 1(c)

1 15 15 15

2 8 M1 p + p(1 – p) + p(1 – p)2 + p(1 – p)3 + p(1 – p)4 + p(1 – p)5 + p(1
+   +   + +   – p)6 + p(1 – p)7 + p(1 – p)8 (+ p(1 – p)9), 0 < p < 1
6 66 66 66
As per answer for minimum terms shown

0.806 A1

2
10(a) [Possible cases: 1 1 2, 1 2 1, 2 1 1] M1 3
1
1
3
  × k , where k is an integer.
Probability =   × 3 6
6
M1 Multiply a probability by 3, not +, – or ÷

1 A1 3
Accept or 0.0138 or 0.0139
72 216

(b) 3 B1
1  1 
P(18) =    = 216 
6
4 M1 (1 – p)4p, 0 < their p < 1
 215  1
P(18 on 5th throw) =   ×
 216  216

0.00454 A1

11(a) 3 1
6 M1 (1 − p )
6
p, 0 < p < 1
 
4 4

729 A1
0.0445,
16384

(b) 3
9 M1  3
n
n
    or p , 0 < p < 1,n = 8,9,10
4  4

19683 A1
0.0751,
262144

2
12(a) [P(0, 1, 2) =] 10C0 0.160 0.8410 + 10C1 0.161 0.849 + 10C2 0.162 0.848 M1 One term: 10Cx px (1 – p)10–x for 0 < x < 10, any p.
[= 0.17490 + 0.333145 + 0.28555]
A1 Correct unsimplified expression, or better.

0.794 A1 0.7935 < p ⩽ 0.794, mark at most accurate.

If M0 scored, SC B1 for final answer 0.794.

(b) ( 0.84 )
7
0.16 M1 (1 – p)7p, 0 < p < 1

0.0472 A1 0.0472144 to at least 3sf.

(c) 4 × 0.0472 × (1 – 0.0472)3 M1 4 × q(1 – q)3, q = their (b) or correct.

0.163 A1 0.163 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.1634, mark at most accurate from their probability to at

least 3sf.

2
13(a) p + q + 0.65 = 1 B1 Sum of probabilities = 1.

p + 2q + 0.15 = 0.55 B1 Use given information.

Solve 2 linear equations M1 Either a single expression with one variable eliminated
formed or two expressions with both variables on the
same side seen with at least one variable value stated.

3 1 A1 CAO, both WWW

p = 0.3, , q = 0.05, If M0 with correct answers SC B1.
10 20

(b) Var (X) = their 0.3 + 4 × their 0.05 + 9 × 0.05 − 0.552 M1 Appropriate variance formula including (E(X))2, accept
unsimplified.

é 259 ù A1 CAO (must be exact).

0.6475 ê ú
êë 400 úû

(c) 1 – P(0, 1, 2) = 1 – (12C0 0.30 0.712 + 12C1 0.31 0.711 + 12C2 0.32 0.710) M1 One correct term: 12Cx px (1 – p)12–x for 0 < x < 12,
0 < p <1.

1 – (0.01384 + 0.07118 + 0.16779) A1FT Correct unsimplified expression, or better in final answer.
Unsimplified expression must be seen to FT their p from
6(a) or correct.

0.747 A1

(d) ( 0.95)
8
× 0.05 = 0.0332 or 0.958 − 0.959 = 0.0332 B1 Evaluated.

1
14(a) [P(>2) = 1 – P(0,1,2) =] M1 One term 7Cx p x (1 − p )7 − x , 0 < p <1,0 < x < 7
1 – (7C0 0.180 0.827 + 7C1 0.181 0.826 + 7C2 0.182 0.825 )

= 1 – (0.249285 + 0.383048 + 0.252251) A1 Correct unsimplified expression or better

= 1 – 0.88458 Condone omission of brackets if recovered

0.115 B1 WWW. 0∙115 ⩽ p < 0∙1155 not from wrong working

(b) [P(at least 1 day of rain) = 1 – P(0) = 1 − ( 0.82 ) =] 0.7507

7 B1 AWRT 0.751 seen

[P(exactly 2 periods) =] 0.7507 2 × (1 − 0.7507 ) × 3 M1 FT their 1− p 7 or their 0.7507 if identified, not 0.18, 0.82
Accept ×3Cr, r=1,2 or ×3P1 for ×3
Condone ×2

0.421 A1 Accept 0.421 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.4215

SC B1 if 0/3 scored for final answer only
0.421 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.4215

15(a)  5  7 1  78125 B1 0.0465 ⩽ p < 0.04652

     0.0465,
 6  6  1679616

1
(b) 5
5 2 3 4
1  5  1   5   1   5   1   5   1  M1 1 – pn, 0 < p < 1, n = 4, 5, 6 or sum of 4, 5 or 6
P(X < 6) = 1    or                    terms p  1  p  for n  0,1, 2,3, 4  5  .
n
6 6  6  6   6   6   6   6   6   6 

4651 A1
0.598,
7776

2
(c) 3 1 B1 SOI
[Probability of total less than 4 is] or
36 12

[1 – P(0, 1, 2)] M1 One term 10Cx p x 1  p 

10  x
, for 0 < x < 10,
0 10 1 9 2 8
 1   11   1   11   1   11  0 < p < 1.
= 1  ( 10C0     + 10C1     + 10
C2     )
 12   12   12   12   12   12 

1 – (0.418904 + 0.380822 + 0.155791) A1 FT Correct expression. Accept unsimplified.

0.0445 A1 0.04448 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.0445

16(a) 4 1 B1 May be seen used in calculation.

[P(17 or 18) =] = ,0.0185(185…)
216 54

 53  1
5 M1 p(1 – p)5, 0 < p < 1
P(X = 6) =   .
 54  54

0.0169 A1 0.01686 < p ⩽ 0.0169

If A0 scored SC B1 for 0.01686 < p ⩽ 0.0169

3(b)  53 
7 M1 r
[P(X < 8) =] 1 −  
  53  
1 −  their  or 0.98148  or correct  ,
 54    54  
r = 7,8 0 < their p < 1

0.123 A1 0.1225 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.123

Alternative method for Question 3(b)

[P(X < 8) =] M1 q + pq + p 2 q + p3q + p 4 q + p5 q  + p 6 q  , p + q = 1, 0  p,q  1, q

2 3 4
 1   53  1   53   1   53   1   53   1 
                 +
+ + + + 53
 54   54  54   54   54   54   54   54   54  = their
54
5 6
 53   1   53   1 
   +   
 54   54   54   54 

0.123 A1 0.1225 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.123

2
17(a) 1 B1 Clear statement of unevaluated correct
a  P(1 head) = 0.7   0.5   0.3   0.5   3 =
3 3

5 1
calculation  . AG
5

3 M1 Clear statement of unevaluated calculation for

b  0.7  0.53  3  0.3 0.53  3  either b or c
8
3
c  0.7  0.53  3  0.3 0.53  A1 For either b or c correct
10
 27  B1 FT 27
 or c  40  b  their b  their c 
  40

(b)  3  0 16  1  30  2  24  3  7  4  176 B1 FT Correct or accept unsimplified calculation using

E  X   80
 or 2.2 their values for b and c seen
  80
(sum of probabilities = 1)

1
(c) [P(0, 1, 2) = ]10C0 0.20 0.810 + 10C1 0.21 0.89 + 10C2 0.22 0.88 M1 One term 10Cx p x 1 p 10x , for
0 < x < 10, 0 < p < 1

0.107374 + 0.268435 + 0.301989 A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified leading to

final answer

0.678 B1 0.677 < p ⩽ 0.678

Alternative method for question 4(c)

1 – [10C10 0∙2100.80 + 10C9 0∙290.81 + 10C8 0∙280.82 + 10C7 0∙270.83 +10C6 0∙260.84 + 10C5 0∙250.85 M1 One term 10Cx p x 1  p 10 x , for
+ 10C4 0∙240.86 + 10C3 0∙230.87]
0 < x < 10, 0 < p < 1

A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified

0.678 B1 0.677 < p ≤ 0.678

(d) 0.86  0.2  0.87  0.2 = 0.0524288 + 0.041943 M1 p l  1  p   p m  1  p  , l = 6, 7

m = l + 1, 0 < p < 1

0.0944 A1 0.09437 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.0944

2
18(a) Method 1: Scenarios identified

[no of ways for score of 2 are] 222, 211, 212, 221, 122, 112, 121 B1 7 correct scenarios identified, no incorrect.
[Total options = 64]

7 7 M1 a
[So P(X = 2) =] = , a = their number of correct identified
4 4 4 64 4 4 4
scenarios > 4

A1 Approach identified, WWW.

Method 2: P(2 on all spinners) + P(2 on two spinners and 1 on one spinner) + P(2 on one spinner and 1 on two spinners)
3 3
1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 B1 1 3 1 1 1
  + C2     + C1    
 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  4
3
( )
  + C2 or C1     + d , 0 < d< 1
 4 4 4
3 3 3
M1 1 1 1
  + e   + f   1 < e <5 and 1 < f < 5
 4 4  4

7 A1 Approach identified, WWW.

[So P(X = 2) =] =
64

Method 3: P(1 or 2 on each spinner) – P(1 on all spinners)

3 3 3
1 1 B1 1
  −    − b seen, 0 < b < 1
2 4 2
3
M1 1 3
  −c , 0 < c < ½
 2

7 A1 Approach identified, WWW.

[So P(X = 2) =]
64

(b) 1 B1 P(X = 1) or P(X = 4) correct. Condone answers not in

P( X = 1) = probability distribution table if clearly identified.
64

 1 7 19  37 B1 FT All 4 probabilities summing to 1.

P(X = 4) = 1 − − − =
 64 64 64  64

2
(c)  3 5 1  243 B1 Accept 0.059326… to 4 or more SF.
P(Y = 6) =    =  0.0593,
 4  4  4096

19(a) Method 1 for Question 3(a)

[P(X > 17) = P(18, 19, 20) =]

( )( )
M1 One term 20Cx p x 1 − p 20− x , 0  p  1, 0  x  20 .
C18 ( 0.8) ( 0.2) + 20C19 ( 0.8) ( 0.2)
20 18 2 19 1

+ 20
C20 ( 0.8 )
20 A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted
leading to final answer.
= 0.13691 + 0.05765 + 0.01153

0.206 B1 Mark the final answer at the most accurate value 0.206 ⩽ p ⩽
0.2061 .

Method 2 for Question 3(a)

[P(X > 17) = 1 – P(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17) = ]

( )( )
M1 One term 20Cx p x 1 − p 20− x , 0  p  1, 0  x  20 .
1 – (20C0 ( 0.8) ( 0.2 ) + 20C1 ( 0.8) ( 0.2 )
0 20 1 19

C2 ( 0.8) ( 0.2 ) ++ 20C16 ( 0.8) A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted
( 0.2 )
2 18 16 4
+ 20
leading to final answer. If answer correct, condone omission of
+ 20C17 ( 0.8) ( 0.2)
17 3
) any 15 of the 16 middle terms.
−14
+ 8.389 10−13
= 1 – ( 1.048 10
+3.1881011 ++ 0.2182 + 0.2054 )

0.206 B1 Mark the final answer at the most accurate value 0.206 ⩽ p ⩽
0.2061 .
Condone omission of brackets.

(b)
( 0.8 )4 ( 0.2 ) =  0.08192, 256 8192
B1
Accept OE.
  3125 100000

1
(c)
( 0.8) ( 0.2) ( 0.8) ( 0.2)  k or ( 0.8) ( 0.2 )  k 0.2 ,
5 2 M1 5 2 5
6
2 ⩽ k ⩽ 7.

8144 A1 786432
= 0.0786, 0.0786 ⩽ p < 0.07865, .
78125 10000000
If A0 awarded, SC B1 for correct answer WWW.

20(a) Method 1

[P(X < 6) = P(X ⩽ 5) =] 1  0.85 M1 1 – 0.8r, r = 5, 6.

= 0.672 A1

Method 2

[P(X < 6) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) =] M1 4 1

Condone an extra term ( )5  .
1 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 1 5
  +  2  +  3  +  4 
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 First, last and one of the 3 middle terms implies M1.

= 0.672 A1

(b) Method 1

[1 − P(0, 1, 2)] M1 One term 12Cx  p  x 1  p 12 x , 0 < p < 1, x  0, 1, 2.

= 1 – (12C0 (0.8)12 + 12C1 (0.2)(0.8)11 + 12C2 (0.2)2 (0.8)10)
[= 1 – (0.06872 + 0.20615 + 0.28347)]
A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted,
leading to final answer. Correct unsimplified expression
or better.

= 0.442 B1 0.411 < p ⩽ 0.442 WWW.

Method 2

[P(3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12) = ] M1 One term 12Cx  p  x 1  p 12  x , 0 < p < 1, x  0, 1, 2.

12
C3 (0.2)3 (0.8)9 + 12C4 (0.2)4 (0.8)8 + … + 12C11 (0.2)11 (0.8)1 + 12C12 (0.2)12
[= 0.23622 + 0.13288 + … + 1.966  10–7 + 4.096  10–9]
A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, leading to final
answer. Accept first, last and 8 of the middle terms.

=0.442 B1 0.411 < p ⩽ 0.442 .

(c)  0.2 5  5! M1  0.2 5  s, s a positive integer. 1 may be implied.

M1 t  5! where 0 < t < 1.

24 A1
= 0.0384,
625

Alternative Method for Question 7(c)

5
C1  4C1  3C1  2C1  [ 1C1 ] M1 ( 5C1 )5 or 55 as denominator.
( 5C1 )5

M1 C1  4C1  3C1  2C1  [ 1C1 ] or 5! as numerator.

5

24 A1
= 0.0384,
625

3
21(a) 192 B1 Exact value required
[P(no rain) = 0.6   0.8 =] 0.3072,
3

625

(b) 0.6  0.8  0.2 M1 a  b  c where a, b = 0.6, 0.8, c = 0.2, 0.4, 0.7 .
Condone including Wednesday with both 0.3 and 0.7
used.

12 A1
= 0.096[0],
125

(c) 48 B1 Correct probability for one clearly identified outcome

P  RDDD   0.4  0.3  0.8  0.8 = 0.0768, evaluated accept unsimplified.
625
18 A correct unsimplified expression is not sufficient.
P  DRDD   0.6  0.2  0.3  0.8 = 0.0288,
625 M1 Add 4 probability values, 0 < p < 1, for appropriate
18
P  DDRD   0.6  0.8  0.2  0.3 = 0.0288, identified scenarios. Accept unsimplified.
625
48 Ways of identifying scenarios for this mark:
P  DDDR   0.6  0.8  0.8  0.2 = 0.0768,
625 Stating the days.
All the unsimplified probability calculations exactly as
stated in the mark scheme.
Identifying the correct branches on a tree diagram and
linking with the values.

No repeated scenarios. No incorrect scenarios.

132 A1 Accept 0.211

0.2112,
625 132
If 0/3 scored SC B1 for 0.2112, .
625

3
22(a) 64 B1 Condone 0.102 .
[P(X = 4) =  0.8   0.2  ] 0.1024,
3

625

(b) [P(X < 6 ) =] 1  0.85 M1 1  0.8d , d = 5, 6.

2101 A1 0.67232 to at least 3SF.

= 0.672,
3125 2101
If M0 awarded, SC B1 for or 0.67232 only.
3125

Alternative Method for Question 4(b)

2 3 4
 1   4  1   4   1   4   1   4   1  M1 If answer correct, condone omission of 2 from 3 middle
[P(X < 6 ) = ]                      terms.
 5   5  5   5   5   5   5   5   5 
Allow M1 for
2 3 4 5
 1   4  1   4   1   4   1   4   1   4   1 
                         
 5   5  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5 

2101 A1 0.67232 to at least 3SF.

= 0.672,
3125 2101
If M0 awarded, SC B1 for or 0.67232 only.
3125

2
(c)  P  X  0  X  2  M1 14
 P  X  0|X  2    [P( X > 0 ∩ X ≠ 2) = ] , 0.56[0] seen as numerator or
 P  X  2  25
denominator of conditional probability fraction.
14
= 25 M1
[P(X ≠ 2) = ]
19
, 0.76[0] seen as denominator of
19
25
25
conditional probability fraction.
14
= , 0.737
19 A1 14
Final answer = , 0.7368421… to at least 3SF.
19
If A0, SC B1 for correct final answer www.

Alternative Method for Question 4(c)

1 2 3 4 5 M1  Number of outcome  X  0  X  2   14 seen as

 
1 0 1 2 3 4
numerator or denominator of conditional probability
2 1 0 1 2 3
fraction.
3 2 1 0 1 2
4 3 2 1 0 1
M1  Number of outcome  X  2  19 seen as denominator
5 4 3 2 1 0  
of conditional probability fraction.
 Number of outcome  X  0  X  2  
 P  X  0|X  2    A1 14
 Number of outcomes X  2  Final answer = , 0.7368421… to at least 3SF.
19
14
, 0.737
19

3
(d) 6 M1 One term 9Cx  p  x 1  p 9 x , 0  p  1, 0  x  9.
[P(X >2) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2) with p = ]
25
9 1 8 2 7
 19   6   19   6   19  A1 1 – (9C0 1 p 9 + 9C1  p 1 1  p 8
1 – (9C0   + 9C1     + 9C2     )
 25   25   25   25   25 
+ 9C2  p  1  p  ) , 0  p  1 .
2 7
[1 – (0.08459 + 0.2404 + 0.3037)]
Correct expression from their p, accept unsimplified, no
terms omitted leading to final answer.
Condone omission of last bracket only.

0.371 B1 0.371 ⩽ p < 0.3715 .

Alternative Method for Question 4(d)

6 M1 One term 9Cx  p  x 1  p 9 x , 0  p  1, 0  x  9.

[P(X>2) = P(3,4,5,6,7,8,9) with p = ]
25
3 6 4 5 8 1 9
9  6   19   6   19   6   19   6  A1 9C3  p 3 1 p 6 + 9C4  p 4 1  p 5 + … + 9C8
C3     + 9C4     + … + 9C8     + 9C9  
 25   25   25   25   25   25   25 
 p  1  p 
+ 9C9  p  , 0  p  1 .
8 1 9
[0.2238 + 0.1060 + … + 7.529  10 + 2.642  10 ]
–5 –6
Correct expression from their p, accept unsimplified, no
terms omitted leading to final answer.

0.371 B1 0.371 ⩽ p < 0.3715 .

3
23(a)  1 B1
 P  HH   4  [E(X) =] 4
 

(b)  B1 81
3 1 
4

 P  X  5         0.0791 1024
  4   4  

(c) 3
6 M1 1 – pn, 0 < p < 1, n = 6, 7
[P(X < 7) = ] 1   
4 or
p  p 1  p   p 1  p   p 1  p  , where n = 4, 5.
2 5 2 n
1 3 1 3 1 3 1
or        
4 4 4 4 4 4 4

3367 A1 Accept 0.82202148… to at least 3SF.

= , 0.822
4096

2
24(a)
(1− p )
4 M1 4
 21   15  p ,0<p<1
   
 36   36 

12005 A1 0.0482454… to at least 3SF.

= , 0.0482
248832

(b) Method 1

 21 
4 M1 1− b r , b = their (1 − p) in 2(a) or correct; r = 4, 5.
[P( X 4) =] 1 −  
 36 

18335 A1 0.884211… to at least 3SF.

= , 0.884
20736

Method 2

2
15 15 21 15  21  15  21 
3 M1 p + p(1 – p) + p(1 – p)2 + p(1 – p)3
[P(X ⩽ 4) =] +  +   +  
36 36 36 36  36  36  36   ( )
 + p 1 − p )4 ] FT from 2(a) or correct.

18335 A1 0.884211… to at least 3SF.

= , 0.884
20736

2
(c) Method 1

x( ) ( )
0 8 1 7 2 6 M1 One term 8C q x 1 − q 8− x , 0  q  1, x  0,8.
5 7 8  5 7 8 5 7
[P(0,1,2) = ] 8C0     + C1     + C2    
 12   12   12   12   12   12 
A1 FT Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted leading to
0.01341 + 0.07661 + 0.1915 final answer.

FT only with unsimplified expression.

= 0.282 B1 0.2815 ⩽ q ⩽ 0.282

Method 2

x( ) ( )
3 5 4 4 M1 One term 8C q x 1 − q 8− x , 0  q  1, x  0,8.
 5 7 5 7
[1 – P(3,4,5,6,7,8) = ] 1 – ( C3     + 8C4     + … + 8C7
8

 12   12   12   12 
7 1 8 0 A1 FT Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted leading to
5 7 8 5 7 final answer.
    + C8     )
 12   12   12   12 
FT only with unsimplified expression.
= 1 – (0.2736 + 0.2443 + … + 0.01017 + 9.084×10 ) -4

= 0.282 B1 0.2815 ⩽ q ⩽ 0.282

25(a) Method 1:

[P(5) = 0.2] M1 1 – 0.8n, n = 6, 7.

[P(X < 7) =] 1 − 0.86

11529 A1 0.737856 to at least 3SF.

= 0.738,
15625

Method 2:

[P(X < 7) =] 0.2 + 0.2 0.8 + 0.2 0.82 + 0.2 0.83 + 0.2 0.8 + 0.2 0.8 M1 0.2 + 0.2  0.8 + 0.2  0.82 + 0.2  0.83 +
(
0.2  0.84 + 0.2  0.85 +0.2  0.86 )
11529 A1 0.737856 to at least 3SF.
= 0.738,
15625

2
25(b) Method 1:

[P(5, 6, 7) = ] M1 One term:

C5 ( 0.2) ( 0.8) +10C6 ( 0.2) ( 0.8) + 10C7 ( 0.2) ( 0.8) Cx ( p ) (1 − p ) , 0  p  1, x  0, 10.
10 5 5 6 4 7 3 10 x 10− x

[0.02642 + 5.505 × 10-3 + 7.864 × 10-4] A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no

terms omitted leading to final answer.

= 0.0327 B1 awrt

Method 2:

[P(X < 8) – P(X ⩽ 4) = 1 – P(X ⩾ 8) – P(X ⩽ 4) =] M1 One term:

Cx ( p ) (1 − p )
10− x
, 0  p  1, x  0, 10.
10 x

1 – { C8(0.2) (0.8) + C9(0.2) 0.8 + (0.2) }

10 8 2 10 9 10

– {(0.8)10 +10C1(0.2)(0.8)9 +10C2(0.2)2(0.8)8 +10C3(0.2)3(0.8)7 +10C4(0.2)4(0.8)6} A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no

terms omitted leading to final answer.
[1−{7.37310−5 + 4.096 10−6 +1.024  10−7 } −
0.1074 + 0.2684 + 0.3020 + 0.2013 + 0.08808
= 0.0327 B1 awrt