War in Ukraine

In the year and a half since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has recaptured 54 percent of
occupied territory, while Russia still occupies 18 percent of the country. Ukraine’s 2023 offensive has
achieved minor territorial gains, but the frontlines have remained stable for almost a year. Both
sides have dug in, making breakthroughs increasingly difficult, and the number of military casualties
has climbed to an estimated half a million. Meanwhile, Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities
and blockade its ports, and Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian ships and
infrastructure. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received nearly $350 billion in aid, including $77
billion from the United States, though it warns of donor fatigue. Fighting and air strikes have inflicted
nearly 22,000 civilian casualties, while 5.1 million people are internally displaced, and 6.2 million
have fled Ukraine. 17.6 million people need humanitarian assistance.

Background

Armed conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in early 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The
previous year, protests in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s
decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union (EU) were met
with a violent crackdown by state security forces. The protests widened, escalating the conflict, and
President Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014.

One month later, in March 2014, Russian troops took control of the Ukrainian region of Crimea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian
speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. Russia then formally annexed the peninsula after
Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed local referendum. The crisis heightened
ethnic divisions, and two months later, pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of
Donetsk and Luhansk held their own independence referendums.

Armed conflict in the regions quickly broke out between Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian
military. Russia denied military involvement, but both Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) reported the buildup of Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk
and Russian cross-border shelling immediately following Crimea’s annexation. The conflict
transitioned to an active stalemate, with regular shelling and skirmishes occurring along frontlines
separating Russian- and Ukrainian-controlled eastern border regions.

Beginning in February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine attempted to kickstart
negotiations to bring an end to the violence through the Minsk Accords. The agreement framework
included provisions for a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, and full Ukrainian government
control throughout the conflict zone. Efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement and satisfactory
resolution, however, were largely unsuccessful.
In April 2016, NATO announced the deployment of four battalions to Eastern Europe, rotating troops
through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter possible future Russian aggression elsewhere
on the continent, particularly in the Baltics. In September 2017, the United States also deployed two
U.S. Army tank brigades to Poland to further bolster NATO’s presence in the region.

In January 2018, the United States imposed new sanctions on twenty-one individuals—including a
number of Russian officials—and nine companies linked to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In March
2018, the U.S. Department of State approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first sale
of lethal weaponry since the conflict began. In October 2018, Ukraine joined the United States and
seven other NATO countries in a series of large-scale air exercises in western Ukraine. The exercises
came after Russia held its own annual military exercises in September 2018, the largest since the fall
of the Soviet Union.

In October 2021, months of intelligence gathering and observations of Russian troop movements,
force build-up, and military contingency financing culminated in a White House briefing with U.S.
intelligence, military, and diplomatic leaders on a near-certain mass-scale Russian invasion of
Ukraine. The only remaining questions were when the attack would take place and whether the
United States would be able to convince allies to act preemptively. Both were answered on February
24, 2022, when Russian forces invaded a largely unprepared Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir
Putin authorized a “special military operation” against the country. In his statement, Putin claimed
that the goal of the operation was to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and end the alleged genocide
of Russians in Ukrainian territory.

In the days and weeks leading up to the invasion, the Joe Biden administration made the
unconventional decision to reduce information-sharing constraints and allow for the broader
dissemination of intelligence and findings, both with allies—including Ukraine—and publicly. The
goal of this strategy was to bolster allied defenses and dissuade Russia from taking aggressive action.
Commercial satellite imagery, social media posts, and published intelligence from November and
December 2021 showed armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry moving toward Ukraine with no
official explanation from the Kremlin. By the end of 2021, more than one hundred thousand Russian
troops were in place near the Russia-Ukraine border, with U.S. intelligence officials warning of a
Russian invasion in early 2022. In mid-December 2021, Russia’s foreign ministry called on the United
States and NATO to cease military activity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, commit to no further
NATO expansion toward Russia, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. The United
States and other NATO allies rejected these demands and threatened to impose severe economic
sanctions if Russia took aggressive action against Ukraine.

In early February 2022, satellite imagery showed the largest deployment of Russian troops to its
border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. Negotiations between the United States, Russia,
and European powers—including France and Germany—failed to bring about a resolution. In late
February 2022, the United States warned that Russia intended to invade Ukraine, citing Russia’s
growing military presence at the Russia-Ukraine border. President Putin then ordered troops to
Luhansk and Donetsk, claiming the troops served a “peacekeeping” function. The United States
responded by imposing sanctions on the regions and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline a few days
later. Nevertheless, just prior to the invasion, U.S. and Ukrainian leaders remained at odds regarding
the nature and likelihood of an armed Russian threat, with Ukrainian officials playing down the
possibility of an incursion and delaying the mobilization of their troops and reserve forces.

On February 24, 2022, during a last-ditch UN Security Council effort to dissuade Russia from
attacking Ukraine, Putin announced the beginning of a full-scale land, sea, and air invasion of
Ukraine targeting Ukrainian military assets and cities across the country. U.S. President Joe Biden
declared the attack “unprovoked and unjustified” and issued severe sanctions against top Kremlin
officials, including Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; four of Russia’s largest banks;
and the Russian oil and gas industry in coordination with European allies. On March 2, 141 of 193 UN
member states voted to condemn Russia’s invasion in an emergency UN General Assembly session,
demanding that Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine.

Since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Ukraine has also increasingly been the target of thousands of
cyberattacks. In December 2015, more than 225,000 people lost power across Ukraine in an attack
on electricity generation firms, and, in December 2016, parts of Kyiv experienced another power
blackout following a similar attack targeting a Ukrainian utility company. In June 2017, government
and business computer systems in Ukraine were hit by the NotPetya cyberattack, which has been
attributed to Russia; the attack spread to computer systems worldwide and caused billions of dollars
in damages. In February 2022, Ukrainian government websites, including the defense and interior
ministries, banking sites, and other affiliated organizations were targeted by distributed denial-of-
service attacks alongside the Russian invasion.

As the initial Russian invasion slowed, long-range missile strikes caused significant damage to
Ukrainian military assets, urban residential areas, and communication and transportation
infrastructure. Hospitals and residential complexes also sustained shelling and bombing attacks. In
late March 2022, Russia announced that it would “reduce military activity” near Kyiv and Chernihiv.
By April 6, Russia had withdrawn all troops from Ukraine’s capital region. In the aftermath of the
Russian withdrawal from Kyiv’s surrounding areas, Ukrainian civilians described apparent war crimes
committed by Russian forces, including accounts of summary executions, torture, and rape.

On April 18, Russia launched a new major offensive in eastern Ukraine following its failed attempt to
seize the capital. By May, Russian forces took control of Mariupol, a major and highly strategic
southeastern port city that had been under siege since late February. Drone footage published by
Ukraine’s far-right Azov Battalion revealed the brutality of the Russian offensive, which had reduced
the city to rubble and caused a massive humanitarian crisis. Indiscriminate and targeted attacks
against civilians in the city, including an air strike on a theater and the bombing of a maternity
hospital, also amplified allegations against Russian forces for international humanitarian law
violations.
Since the summer of 2022, fighting has largely been confined to Ukraine’s east and south, with
Russian cruise missiles, bombs, cluster munitions, and thermobaric weapons devastating port cities
along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The Russian seizure of several Ukrainian ports and
subsequent blockade of Ukrainian food exports compounded an already acute global food crisis
further exacerbated by climate change, inflation, and supply chain havoc. Prior to the conflict,
Ukraine had been the largest supplier of commodities to the World Food Program (WFP), which
provides food assistance to vulnerable populations. In July, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement
to free more than twenty million tons of grain from Russian-controlled Ukrainian ports. The first
grain shipments to leave Ukraine since the Russian invasion departed from Odesa on August 1, 2022;
they arrived in Russian-allied Syria on August 15, although their originally presumed destination had
been Lebanon. On October 29, Russia suspended the grain deal in response to an alleged Ukrainian
attack on Russian naval forces, which Ukraine called a “false pretext.” Nonetheless, Russia did not
enforce the blockade when Ukraine defiantly continued shipments, and Turkey quickly negotiated
Russia’s return to the deal, which has been consistently extended to date.

In mid-August, the southern shift of the war’s frontline sparked international fears of a nuclear
disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant along the Dnipro River. The largest nuclear plant in Europe,
the Zaporizhzhia facility was seized by Russian forces in the earliest stages of the war. Escalating
tensions between the plant’s Ukrainian staff and its Russian occupiers have also raised uncertainty
regarding its continued safe operation. Fighting in the territory surrounding the facility also raises
concerns that the plant could be critically damaged in the crossfire: shelling of the plant’s switchyard
has already led to a city-wide black-out in Enerhodar, where the plant is located. Representatives of
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi,
visited the plant in early September to assess the threat of a nuclear accident. In a report [PDF] on
the findings of its inspection, the IAEA called for “a nuclear safety and security protection zone”
around the plant and for “all military activity” in the adjacent territory to cease immediately.

In September 2022, Ukrainian forces made strong advances in the northeast and mounted a
revitalized southern counteroffensive. Ukraine retook significant territory in the Kharkiv region,
surprising Russian forces and cutting off important supply lines at Lyman before stalling and settling
into a new front line. Shortly after, in southern Ukraine, Russia hastily withdrew across the Dnipro
River as Ukrainian forces retook the city of Kherson and all territory west of the river. By the end of
2022, Ukraine had liberated half of its Russian-occupied territory, with 14 percent of the country
remaining under Russian control.

Following the loss of Kherson, Russia redeployed forces eastward to Donetsk, in addition to sending
tens of thousands of reinforcements to the area in advance of a February 2023 offensive. Russia also
announced a partial mobilization on September 21, 2022, to refurbish the Russian army, prompting
thousands of Russians to flee amid antiwar protests, and moved to annex four occupied territories:
Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In his speech announcing the illegal annexation of
Ukrainian territory, Putin also hinted at the possibility of nuclear escalation, claiming that the United
States had set a precedent by dropping nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War
II.
Concerns

The current conflict has severely strained U.S.-Russia relations and increased the risk of a wider
European conflict. Tensions are likely to increase between Russia and neighboring NATO member
countries that would likely involve the United States, due to alliance security commitments. The
conflict will also have broader ramifications for future cooperation on critical issues like arms
control; cybersecurity; nuclear nonproliferation; global economic stability; energy security;
counterterrorism; and political solutions in Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. Additionally, Russia’s
isolation has not only destabilized global energy and resource markets but also pushed the country
to seek stronger strategic ties with those states (e.g., China) still willing to partner with it, largely in
opposition to the West. The war has also compounded other global crises, with military operations
and violence hindering the delivery and distribution of much-needed aid, including food, and
exacerbating an already severe shortage of available global humanitarian assistance and resources.

Recent Developments

Following a winter stalemate, Putin announced plans in February to take all of Donbas by March
2023 in an offensive surge. However, the attack made little progress and devolved into a months-
long siege of Bakhmut, a town of limited strategic value with a pre-war population of seventy
thousand. The United States estimates Russia suffered one hundred thousand casualties in Bakhmut,
including twenty thousand deaths. Despite Russia’s low official numbers, Wagner Group boss
Yevgeny Prigozhin concurred with U.S. estimates, adding that around half of those killed were
Russian convicts recruited for battle. Ukraine also took heavy casualties in the urban warfare. By late
May, Russia claimed to have taken the city, though Zelenskyy says his troops are still fighting there
as Ukraine shifts to offensive actions.

On June 6, 2023, a breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam, sixty kilometers north of Kherson on the
Dnipro River, caused severe flooding in southwest Ukraine, affecting over eighty thousand people
who live in the riparian zone. Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up the dam to prevent a
southeastern offensive, while Russia claims Ukraine carried out the attack to deprive Crimea of
water and distract from the battlefront. The Ukrainian dam operator says it has been destroyed
beyond repair. Furthermore, the draining of the reservoir raises concerns over the availability of
water to cool the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant reactors, though the cooling ponds are reportedly
stable.

In June 2023, Ukraine launched a much-anticipated counteroffensive, attempting to break through

Russian defenses eastward in Donetsk province, including around Bakhmut, and southward in
Zaporizhzhia province, which forms the “land corridor” to Crimea. Zelenskyy said Ukraine aims to
liberate 18 percent of occupied territory in the current phase, but Ukrainian forces have met stiff
resistance and suffered heavy losses against hardened Russian defensive positions, air superiority,
and minefields. Nonetheless, Ukraine has made small gains on the ground and has stepped up
attacks on bridges to Crimea, Russian ships, and buildings in Moscow.
Since February 24, 2022, the United States has committed nearly forty billion dollars in security
assistance to Ukraine, including nineteen billion in immediate military aid and sixteen billion in
humanitarian aid. Additionally, in early 2023 the Biden administration approved the provision of
increasingly advanced weaponry, such as the Patriot air defense system, crucial for defending
against Russian airstrikes, and top-tier battle tanks. The United States has also dramatically increased
U.S. troop presence in Europe, bringing the total to more than one hundred thousand. On June 8,
2023, in a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Biden said he believes the
United States has the funds to “support Ukraine as long as it takes.” A day later, the Department of
Defense announced another 2.1 billion dollars in military aid. While the United Nations, Group of
Seven member states, EU, and others continue to condemn Russia’s actions and support Ukrainian
forces, Russia has turned to countries like North Korea and Iran for intelligence and military
equipment and continues to sell discounted oil and gas to India and China, among others.

By June 2023, the UN Human Rights Office recorded nearly nine thousand civilian deaths and over
fifteen thousand civilian injuries since Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24,
2022. The violence has internally displaced nearly six million people and forced nearly eight million
to flee to neighboring countries, including Moldova and Poland, a NATO country where the United
States and other allies are helping to accommodate the influx of refugees.

On June 23, Putin faced a major internal challenge when Yevgeniy Prigozhin released a video
claiming the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) shelled Wagner forces and announced a “march of
justice” to unseat the military leadership. The mutiny follows months of tensions with the MoD,
which Prigozhin often insulted and accused of not supplying adequate munitions, and an attempt by
the MoD to reign in Wagner fighters. Wagner forces quickly occupied Rostov-on-Don and seized
Russia’s southern military headquarters. Wagner convoys then advanced more than halfway to
Moscow; Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped. On
June 24, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated for Wagner soldiers to return to
their bases and for Prigozhin to move to Belarus. Prigozhin’s true aims remain unknown, but the
incident left both the Wagner Group and Putin weakened.