2024 ConEx - Technical Sessions

If you are interested in federal and/or mega-projects, look for sessions marked with
Program subject to change. Rev. 2024-06-12
(CDR-4214) Integrated Construction Project Subnetworks: Development, Monitoring, and Analysis

Time/Location: SUN 12:00-1:00 / Dream Ballroom 2 (1st Floor)
Skill Level: Intermediate
TCM Section(s): 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Author(s)/Presenter(s):
Eric Anthony, PSP SOCOTEC
Abstract: The development and integration of subnetworks is a practical application intended to improve the monitoring and analysis of a
construction project schedule. Subnetworks are groups of logically related activities used to independently monitor progress and calculate float.
Linking subnetworks to key milestones is an effective method of monitoring phases, areas, structures, systems, or work categories. Subnetworks
or fragnets are also incorporated into a contemporaneous unimpacted schedule update to perform a prospective measurement of schedule
impacts. After a delay occurs, retrospective or forensic analysis of a complex schedule often requires the identification and analysis of inadequately
planned subnetworks. The planned use of integrated subnetworks improves the hierarchical organization of a construction project schedule and
supports progress monitoring and analysis.
This technical paper demonstrates the claims and dispute resolution (CDR) advantages of developing and maintaining a highly organized
construction project schedule using integrated subnetworks.
(CDR-4216) (Panel Discussion) Owner, Contractor & Subcontractor Perspectives on Subcontractor Claims
& Disputes
Time/Location: MON 3:45-6:00 / Dream Ballroom 1 (1st Floor)
Donald F. McDonald, Jr. CCP PSP FAACE Hon. Life Fluor Enterprises, Inc.
Dr. Stephen P. Warhoe, PE CCP CFCC FAACE Hon. Life SP Warhoe LLC
Charles E. Bolyard, Jr. CFCC PSP FAACE Hon. Life MBP
Abstract: Many discussions and papers involving construction contract claims and disputes focus time and cost issues from a prime contract
perspective. In most EPC / design-build contracts issues subcontractor claims and disputes are an "elephant in the room" and pose interim and
final resolution issues for all involved. While the fundamentals of notice, contractual and legal entitlement, causation analysis and quantum
development with supporting documentation are fundamentally the same regardless of what level in the contracting chain is being addressed,
the addition of subcontractor(s) claims and issues leads to further complications in a journey to resolution and contract(s) close out. This panel
discussion brings forward the perspective of an owner, contractor and subcontractor to address common issues and how they are often dealt
with on the path to overall resolution.
(CDR-4217) Construction Equipment Disruption Modeling in Claims

TCM Section(s): 10.3. Change Management 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
Dr. Wael El Ghandour Aramco
Karim El Ghandour Suncor Energy
Abstract: Calculating or estimating the equipment's lost productivity is one of the most contentious aspects of construction claims. In addition,
assigning responsibility for equipment lost productivity can be challenging. Consequently, the majority of industry studies and protocols
concentrate on labour productivity loss rather than equipment productivity loss. In addition, there is no consensus in the construction industry
regarding the preferable method for calculating and allocating responsibility for equipment lost productivity. Moreover, an effective presentation
of causal relationships facilitates the procedure for claim resolution. In actuality, the improvement of the claim analysis process is contingent upon
augmenting the precision and illustration of a claim case.
In the oil sand mining industry, various equipment reliability systems are utilized as a practical instrument for equipment productivity
management. This study examined the various causes of equipment productivity loss, its relationship to idle time, the techniques used to calculate
idle time, the methods used to calculate equipment lost productivity, and introducing a new equipment disruption model employing Overall
Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) method used for equipment lost productivity, discrete-event simulation, and oil sand equipment reliability system.
(CDR-4218) Integrated Disruption Modeling (IDM) using Artificial Intelligence and Discrete-Event
Simulation
Skill Level: Advanced
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement
Dr. Wael El Ghandour Aramco
Belkacem Foura Aramco
Abstract: There are several methods for estimating the time and money lost in the construction industry due to decreased productivity. The
measured mile method and its variants, the improved measured mile and the advanced measured mile, are among the most essential approaches
for estimating the time lost due to a productivity disruption. The most difficult aspect of evaluating a loss of productivity claim is presenting the
claim in a manner that is convincing to both the claimant and the defendant. Complex claims for delay must be supported by extensive, high-
quality documentation in order to be presented effectively. When presenting a claim for a delay, it may be advantageous to include visual aids,
such as computer models, to simplify the technical complexities involved. Consequently, visual evidence has taken on a greater role in the
settlement of complex claim cases. This paper builds on previous research presented for the advanced measured mile in order to validate and
fathom the study of labor loss of productivity better. It presents a new integrated model by combining its findings using IBM Cloud Pak for the
data artificial intelligence platform with the status of scheduled activities and other evidence of disruptions, including schedule updates, monthly,
weekly, and daily progress reports, resource histograms, disruption event concurrency, and photographs of the work site. By contrasting the as-
built and planned status of the disrupted construction trades, an additional discrete-event simulation model was developed to illustrate the
outcomes, validate their veracity, and increase the model's precision.
(CDR-4221) On the Intricacies of Evaluating Delay Damages

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 9.1. Project Cost Accounting
Natasha Dahl, CCP PSP Delta Consulting Group
Avi Sharma Delta Consulting Group
Dr. Tong Zhao, PE CCP CFCC PSP Delta Consulting Group
Abstract: Delays are a regular part of the construction project lifecycle, necessitating contractors' and experts' quantifying delay damages. Drawing
upon the authors' extensive experience in claims management, it becomes evident that many approaches exist to assess delay damages. Notably,
even for identical delays, divergent quantifications arise among various professionals. This paper explores the multifaceted landscape of
quantifying damages within projects beset by compensable delays.
Presented within are thorough analyses of damages scenarios spanning delays in different project phases, delays coupled with mitigation efforts,
and terminations. The intricate nature of delay damages within the construction realm is unveiled through the deconstruction of these diverse
scenarios.
(CDR-4222) Apples and Oranges: The Need for Comparative Project Guidelines
TCM Section(s): 10.3. Change Management
Alessio Loreti, PE PSP Delta Consulting Group
Cory R. Milburn, CCP CFCC PSP Delta Consulting Group
Abstract: When a measured mile based on similar work in the same project cannot be identified or does not exist, an option that AACE's
Recommended Practice No. 25R-03 advises is evaluating productivity on the disputed project and contrasting it with a project of similar attributes
(a “comparable project study”). As such, the comparable project study is an important tool when assessing loss of labor productivity within the
construction industry. However, there is a lack of standard criteria or guidelines for selection of a comparative project. The claimant bears the
responsibility of demonstrating parallelism in project size, magnitude, location, weather conditions, labor dynamics, and other pertinent factors.
The closer the alignment between projects, the greater the credibility associated with this method; conversely, a diminished resemblance leads
to decreased prospects of successful resolution. This paper highlights the issue of the absence of clear industry guidelines for conducting
comparative project analyses, shedding light on its nuanced challenges, and advocating for a standardized framework for identification and
evaluation of comparative projects.
(CDR-4226) Forensic Evaluation of Subcontractor Components in CPM Schedules

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Greg M. Hall, PSP Kiewit Corporation
Abbas F. Saifi, CCP EVP PSP EllisDon Corporation
Abstract: Because forensic analysis emphasizes a study of a schedule’s critical path, and most literature regarding time-based disputes focuses on
the owner/general contractor relationship, it is easy to forget about subcontractors’ interests when evaluating delay. Subcontractors often have
legitimate claims rooted in schedule impact, but not all of them affect the administration of the prime contract. This creates a delay demonstration
challenge when impacts suffered by the subcontractor are not visible in the general contract’s critical path.
This paper will examine the subcontractor/general contractor coordination required to develop and maintain schedules; methods used on projects
holistic and targeted methods for evaluating time impact to a subcontractor’s portion of an overall project scope; and recommendations for
pursuing a fair and equitable evaluation for all parties.
(CDR-4231) Adjusted Measured Mile Baseline Methodology for Quantifying Lost Productivity Damages in
Construction Claims
Skill Level: intermediate
TCM Section(s): 10.1. Project Performance Assessment 10.3. Change Management
Karim Nagui Diales
Abstract: Loss of productivity (LOP) is sometimes experienced on construction projects and can result in financial damage. The measured
mile/baseline method is often used to quantify LOP by comparing the impacted and the unimpacted/lightly impacted portions or periods of work.
It is not uncommon to rely on a least impacted portion or period of the work as a measured mile baseline, if an unimpacted portion is unavailable.
However, such practice may result in an understatement of the LOP experienced by the impacted party, given that the least impacted portion of
the work might have been impacted by events that did not occur/impact the impacted portion of the work.
This paper will discuss how to make adjustments to the least impacted portion of the work in order to establish an adjusted measured mile
baseline that is more reflective of the impacted party’s productivity “but for” the non-recurring impact events suffered during the least impacted
period. This paper does not address the entitlement or causation arguments in a loss of productivity claim, it only focuses on the quantification
of the loss of productivity.
(CDR-4239) Tales from the Construction Claims Crypt - Lessons Learned

Time/Location: TUE 10:15-11:15 / Dream Ballroom 1 (1st Floor)
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 4.1. Project Implementation
James G. Zack, Jr. CFCC FAACE Hon. Life James Zack Consulting, LLC
Abstract: Some construction industry surveys indicate that one of the most common causes of claims and disputes is inadequate contract
administration by both owners and contractors. The paper examines twenty construction claims to test the conclusions these surveys. These
claims are used to illustrate pitfalls owners and contractors all too often fall into. The paper examines how poor contract administration leads to
claims due to inadequate change order administration; use of overly complex scheduling specifications; lack of necessary contract constraints;
impact damages due to changes and delays; refusal to accept baseline early completion schedules; the use of no damage for delay clauses; and
others. The paper discusses the claims that arose - the how and the why. The paper also describes the outcome of each claim and offers lessons
learned from each claim situation - some for owners, others for contractors, and some for both.
(CDR-4255) Seeing Double? How to Address Claimed/Duplicative Costs in Damages and Delay Analyses
TCM Section(s): 10.1. Project Performance Assessment 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement
Rachel Domingo, PSP LitCon Group
Michael R. Martin, Jr. LitCon Group
Abstract: Often when a large loss occurs, project parties will silo themselves when analyzing the delay and damages claim elements. As
construction claim consultants, it is imperative that efforts are coordinated to avoid duplicative and/or incorrect assessment of damages. If not
mitigated early in the process, lack of coordination amongst the experts can necessitate a tedious post-hoc resubmission that extends the claim
review and approval timeline. Alternatively, lack of coordination can result in increased client costs as multiple parties prepare various claim
analyses such as a productivity or measured mile study.
To streamline this process, this paper will discuss best practices for coordinated and integrated analysis and quantification of the damage and
delay claim efforts. The paper’s authors, one damages expert and one delay expert, will illustrate how to work in tandem in order to craft a
comprehensive and cohesive claim for the client.
Several case studies will be reviewed where claims were impacted or even rejected by the lack of integration between the damages and delay
claim sections.
(CDR-4256) (Presentation Only) Recommended Practice 130R-23 - Demonstrating Entitlement to

Cumulative Impact Claims in Construction
Dr. Stephen P. Warhoe, PE CCP CFCC FAACE Hon. Life SP Warhoe LLC
Abstract: This will be a presentation that goes over the content of RP 130R-23, Demonstrating Entitlement to Cumulative Impact Claims in
Construction. Cumulative impact is defined as the net impact of two or more undifferentiated changes, as each is measured or measurable at a
certain point in time, being much greater than the sum of the effect of the individual parts. This effect results in the reduced productivity of
unchanged work. Due to the complicated nature of construction work, it is not usually well understood by contracting parties and even legal
professionals.
This presentation will discuss aspects of demonstrating entitlement to cumulative impact claims.
(CDR-4259) Reconstructing Schedules for Forensic Analysis: Methods, Insights, and Case Study
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
Matthew G. Nichols, PSP Delta Consulting Group
Avi Sharma Delta Consulting Group
Abstract: When performing a forensic schedule analysis, if a project's schedule is not available in an electronic CPM software format, other than
for the simplest of projects, it will be necessary to reconstruct one or more of the project schedules in an electronic format. Recreating schedules
in an electronic CPM software format allows the analyst to consider schedule logic and identify critical path shifts while performing a forensic
schedule analysis.
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the existing literature concerning the recreation of schedules within CPM software for forensic
schedule analysis. It subsequently delves into guidance on generating, documenting, and validating recreated schedules, and using recreated
schedules in a forensic schedule analysis. In addition, the paper offers insights into reviewing a schedule that a third party has reconstructed. To
illustrate these concepts in action, the paper concludes with a case study focusing on the recreation of schedules in an electronic CPM schedule
format for a forensic schedule analysis.
(CDR-4260) Poor Practices Used in Contemporaneous Schedule Updates to Build Delay Claims
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
Hala Marvan, PSP Diales Expert Witness Services
Khaled M. Aziza, EVP PSP Delta Consulting Group
Abstract: Schedule revisions in contemporaneous schedule updates are often unavoidable during the project lifetime. Schedule revisions and
updates are used in monitoring project progress and keeping the schedule up to date. However, the schedule update process must comply with
the contract and scheduling specification requirements and reflect the actual project status to ensure the integrity of the schedule plan. Poor
scheduling practices during the implementation of schedule revisions and non-compliance with the contract requirements may result in false or
inaccurate reporting of the project critical path and misinformation on project status. This could reflect an artificial or exaggerated delay that
leads to miscommunication between the project parties, lost opportunities to control and mitigate delays, and subsequent claims and disputes.
This paper highlights issues that should be considered by the contractor and owner throughout the schedule update and review processes,
presents examples of commonly implemented poor scheduling practices, discusses certain caveats and recommendations to avoid disputes, and
examines two case studies.
(CDR-4274) Practical Considerations for Substantiating Disruption Claims

TCM Section(s): 10.3. Change Management 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
Kareem M. Khattab, PE PSP Ventia
Dr. Rania Fayed Hill International
Abstract: Disruption in construction projects is an unanticipated interruption to the regular progress of works, resulting in loss of productivity. It
could be due to various reasons like excessive overtime, acceleration or out-of-sequence work. Disruption results in reduction of work efficiency
rate which leads to increase in working hours spent (i.e., labor and/or equipment) on the relevant disrupted work, not necessarily extra time (i.e.,
critical delay), which leads to claims to recover such losses. In practice, disruption claims are often difficult to establish due to lack of express
provisions in the contract that provide rules or guidance on methodology and qualifying relevant event(s) which caused disruption. This makes it
difficult to establish definitive causal linkages and may lead to claims being more global in nature. Meanwhile, assuming evidence is given, and it
is compelling, it remains challenging to measure and justify the financial impact of disruption in absence of actual records as courts are more
impressed by damage calculations related directly to the disputed works and supported by contemporaneous documentation. This paper delves
into the practical considerations for conducting a credible disruption analysis in view of the methods described in AACE International RP 25R-03
through different scenarios providing better explanation and more accurate estimation of the methods.
(CDR-4277) Pacing Delays - Application and Considerations

TCM Section(s): 10.3. Change Management
Kareem M. Khattab, PE PSP Ventia
Abstract: Although pacing delay is no longer a new type of delay, this form of delay can be considered, under some circumstances, highly
controversial. Either party of the contract may opt to pace the project activities for a parent delay event, yet without reserving its right to claim
additional costs due to the parent delay or even legally protect its action. This may turn into a dispute as the party that took the pacing delay
decision may lose its entitlement for additional costs if appropriate proof of pacing action is not provided because the pacing action may be
confused with concurrency. Although there is a great difference between concurrency and pacing, they are often confused, basically, due to lack
of documentation and contractual control. The fundamental difference is that pacing should be a conscious decision taken in reaction and only
after a parent delay has occurred. However, while pacing is easily asserted, it cannot be shown by forensic schedule analysis methods alone. This
paper discusses the different scenarios for the impact of pacing delays, the practical problems arising from each scenario, the methodology and
limitations for application, and the guidelines to facilitate proper management and informed pacing decisions.
(CDR-4284) Shortcomings in the Dispute Resolution Procedure under AIA232-2019 Contract

TCM Section(s): 10.1. Project Performance Assessment
Dr. Waleed M. El Nemr Bechtel Corporation
Abstract: At the 2023 AACE Conference and Expo, the authors presented a comparison between the AIA (AIA232-2019 edition) and FIDIC (2017
Red Book edition) contracts in respect of the dispute resolution procedures prior to the commencement of arbitration. During the preparation of
the paper, several concerns in the AIA’s dispute resolution procedures were shared with the attendees. Due to the fact that these observations
are a topic of their own right, it was decided then to prepare a separate paper that is a sequel to the 2023 paper that focuses on the observed
flaws in the AIA contract pertaining to the dispute resolution process, with the aim of stimulating constructive debate on the topic and, ultimately,
encouraging enhancement of the forms. Among the observed concerns is the uncertainty regarding the impartiality of the initial decision-maker
(IDM), a critical flaw in the procedure leading to mediation, the impractical time limit for commencement of all claims / causes of action and the
leeway given to the IDM to not provide a decision. The paper concludes with recommendations to help alleviate the shortcomings discussed.
Throughout the paper, comparisons will continue to be made between the AIA and FIDIC contracts to shed light on some further key distinctions.
(CDR-4285) Claim Avoidance Emphasis in FIDIC Construction Contracts and Selection of ADR Neutrals
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
Luis Otavio Rosa Taroba Eng
Abstract: FIDIC construction contracts used globally in many jurisdictions are frequently updated with improvements and contribution from users.
Recent forms for Design-Bid-Build (Red book), Plant and Design-Build (Yellow book) and EPC/Turnkey (Silver book), called 2017 Rainbow Suite,
aim fewer disputes and more successful projects, with emphasis on dispute avoidance. A collaborative approach requires prevention and
anticipation, with current information developed during execution of the contract. Standing dispute board is mandatory in FIDIC 2017 Rainbow
Suite and should be constituted at the beginning of the contract, with regular meetings and site visits, in order to prevent a claim from becoming
a dispute. This type of dispute board is called Dispute Avoidance/Adjudication Board DAAB, formed frequently by three qualified members,
independent and impartial. Alternative Dispute Resolution ADR models include DAAB as a consensual method, designed to diminish adversarial
behavior. Selection of qualified neutrals to become members for DAAB is important for the success of prevention of disputes. This paper presents
the avoidance importance and identify some critical factors and characteristics of professionals to be selected and appointed as DAAB member.
(CDR-4287) Expert Terms of Reference in Arbitration: Guidelines and Applications

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 5.2. Asset Performance Measurement
Luis Otavio Rosa Tarobá Engenharia
Beatriz Vidigal Xavier da Silveira Rosa Tarobá Engenharia
Abstract: Arbitration is a dispute resolution mechanism that has been employed in many construction contracts. There are several institutions
that issue arbitration rules that regulate procedural regime and the management of proceedings. The definition of production of evidence is a
decision in each arbitration case, as there is no such provision in most important procedural rules. Sometimes is necessary to produce evidence
and calculate the quantum of claims, by party-appointed expert or by tribunal-appointed expert. Expert terms of reference is a document used in
some arbitration proceedings to establish and regulate the production of evidence and calculation of quantum of claims. This paper proposes
guidelines and minimal content to be considered in the terms of reference to be used during evidence production by experts, with related
applications and examples.
(CDR-4293) Biting the Hand that Feeds You – The Impact of Litigation Against the Owner

TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 10.1. Project Performance Assessment
Nickolas Florez, CFCC Construction Contract Services LLC
Abstract: For federal projects, the ability to obtain contracts, at least in part, depends on a contractor’s past performance ratings that are collected
in a database managed through the Contractor Performance and Rating System (CPARS). The CPARS rates contractor performance in several
areas with ratings of exceptional, very good, satisfactory, marginal or unsatisfactory. The question is, does litigation against the owner have a
negative impact on a contractor’s performance rating and thereby jeopardize the potential for obtaining future work? Stated another way, is
litigation biting the hand that feeds you? This paper investigates data available from several sources to include the Armed Services Board of
Contract Appeals and the CPARS database to help determine if there exists a relationship between litigation and negative performance evaluations
in order to provide a more quantitative assessment when considering the risks associated with litigation.
(CDR-4301) Daubert Challenge Paper Revisited: The Landscape Two Decades Later
Kenji P. Hoshino, CFCC PSP Project Controls & Forensics, LLC
Abstract: Revisit the professional landscape 20 years after the presentation of the paper that started Claims and Dispute Resolution
subcommittee’s effort to publish RP 29R-03 for Forensic Schedule Analysis (FSA). In 2003, at AACE’s Annual Meeting in Orlando, the author
presented “Surviving the Daubert Challenge: A CPM Expert’s Perspective” that posed a fundamental question whether there existed a technical
standard governing the practice of forensic scheduling. The paper concluded that, at that time, the only technical standard appeared to be that
CPM principles be used. Fast forward to now, the landscape is vastly different with the publication and wide-scale adoption of 29R-03. This paper
will update how the principles governing admissibility of opinions of expert witnesses fit into the current practice of forensic schedule analysis. It
concludes with thoughts about the future direction of the development and use of technical standards in FSA.
(CDR-4311) False Claims Act Regulations and Dispute Resolution in the Construction Industry
TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 9.1. Project Cost Accounting
Suleiman Al Rai, PSP Delta Consulting Group
Cory R. Milburn, CCP CFCC PSP Delta Consulting Group
Gregory S. Martin Martin Hild, P.A.
Codi K. Cox Martin Hild, P.A.
Abstract: An applicable False Claims Act regulation can significantly impact a client if violated. Penalties and even a complete forfeiture of a claim
(or worse) may result from a violation. As more states enact False Claims Act regulations, practitioners in the construction disputes field need to
understand the scope and limits of these regulations to avoid falling into the mistake of submitting a “false claim” and exposing their client to dire
financial consequences. This paper will describe what False Claims Act regulations are and provide a brief history of these regulations, as it relates
to the construction industry. In addition, this paper will show how some types of construction claims, such as delay and loss of productivity claims,
may be viewed as a false claim, and recommended techniques to avoid these situations.
(CDR-4312) Identifying, Quantifying, and Proving Delay or Disruption Using Linear Schedules
Skill Level: Basic
Benjamin Winsor, PE Aperture LLC
William C. Schwartzkopf Aperture LLC
Abstract: Critical path method (CPM) schedules are based on the premise that a project has blocks of activities that must be performed in a certain
sequence—for example, a foundation must be completed before first-floor framing can be constructed. On many types of projects, the order in
which the blocks of work must be performed is mandatory, whereas within a block, the order of work—such as starting at the west or east side
of a structure—may be preferential. However, on other types of projects, the blocks of work may be constructed in any order the contractor
chooses—for example, on a pipeline project, the segments of the pipeline may be constructed in any order. Projects where the blocks of work
may be constructed in any order are often linear or repetitive in nature.
When CPM schedules are used on linear projects, they may provide misleading schedule projections when the sequence of performing the blocks
or segments of work changes. CPM schedule analysis is dependent on the order in which blocks of work are completed. As a result, it will give
inaccurate results when the blocks of work are performed out of sequence, even though the order is arbitrary, not mandatory. A more useful tool
for identifying and demonstrating delay or disruption on linear or repetitive projects is a linear schedule, which allows the easy identification of
discrete areas with slow or fast progress and helps identify the impacts causing disruption and delay.
This paper presents examples from actual projects to illustrate how linear schedules can more accurately identify problems on linear projects.
(CDR-4337) How to Impact Activity Durations and Quantify Delay due to Design Changes
Nathan Swink, PSP Delta Consulting Group
John Cleary, PSP Delta Consulting Group
Abstract: When baseline schedules are developed using preliminary design information, including but not limited to material quantities, sizes, and
types, the baseline activity durations may be impacted once final design is completed. The preliminary-to-final design changes may result in an
increase to the various material characteristics, which affect installation production rates, safety considerations, and methods of construction.
These impacts may cause an increase in activity durations, which can result in project delays. This paper is written from a contractor’s perspective
and will demonstrate how to quantify delay by impacting activity durations based on preliminary-to-final design changes. This procedure will be
exemplified through a case study that was based on actual project experience. This delay quantification procedure can be used to substantiate
change order requests and/or claims when design changes occur.
(CDR-4359) Schedule Delay Analysis: The Intermediary Method

Ryan Clark, PE Capital Project Management, Inc.
David Kendall, PE Capital Project Management, Inc.
Abstract: It is generally accepted that schedule delays are measured through project substantial completion. Most, if not all, existing standards
and recommended practices for evaluating schedule delays primarily rely on measuring shifts in the project's substantial completion date.
However, depending on the project's unique conditions, this approach may not always be the most suitable, casting doubt on the accuracy and
practicality of applying existing standards and recommended practices.
Introducing an infrequently utilized but circumstantially beneficial approach known as the "intermediary method," this paper aims to address this
limitation by measuring delays through interim milestones. This method reduces the uncertainty of changing projections of modeled downstream
work. As the schedule analyst evaluates project progress and critical path, he or she would measure delay to the established milestone and then
update that milestone once actualized or shifts in the critical path are realized. The intermediary method contains echoes of already established
protocols and standards such as AACE RP 29R-03 MIP 3.3 or ASCE 67 but offers additional clarity and tools when straightforward application of
those protocols is hindered by complicating factors.
In this context, delay measurement using the intermediary method becomes intimately tied to the delays or recoveries near the status date
thereby establishing causality between project events and delay. This paper will begin by introducing the intermediary method, providing insights
into its practical application, and identifying the specific project conditions that make it suitable. A theoretical exercise will be presented, and a
case study will be analyzed to illustrate the method's effectiveness.
(CDR-4398) Time Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future

Skill Level: Basic
Mark C. Sanders, PE CCP CFCC PSP Alpha 3 Consulting, LLC
Abstract: As one of the earliest terms applied to forensic schedule analysis, time impact analysis (TIA) has a long history. This paper explores the
origins and evolution of the term and the techniques to which it has been applied. Where did the term originate? What did a TIA involve when
the term was first applied? What does it mean today, and what will it mean in the future? The paper presents the position that TIA was developed
as a modeled, additive technique that still has value in the prospective or contemporaneous evaluation and negotiation of time extensions.
However, the technique has been displaced by contemporaneous period analysis (CPA) as the state of the art of forensic scheduling has evolved.
(CDR-4410) Addressing Missing Schedule Logic when Performing a Contemporaneous Period Analysis
Roberto Leandro Spire Consulting Group, LLC
Anthony Springer Spire Consulting Group, LLC
Ishmael Smith, PSP Secretariat Advisors, LLC
Abstract: Missing logic in project schedules has always been a challenge for analysts when it comes to assessing construction delays using a
contemporaneous period or window analysis (Method Implementation Protocol (MIP) 3.3 – Observational / Dynamic / Contemporaneous As-Is
and MIP 3.4 – Observational / Dynamic / Contemporaneous Split). The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE International)
Recommended Practice (RP) 29R-03 states that the preference of every analyst should be to use the contemporaneous schedules and updates as
they existed during the project when implementing a contemporaneous period analysis. However, RP 29R-03 allows for corrections in schedule
anomalies, including incorrect and missing logic, as defined in the validation protocols. Hence, RP 29R-03 allows the analyst the option to
implement a contemporaneous period analysis with and without conducting schedule logic corrections. This paper contains a representative case
study that depicts the implementation of MIP 3.3 using a native schedule with and without corrections. In addition, this paper addresses industry
standards regarding missing logic when developing and maintaining project schedules, an overview of AACE International RP 29R-03 regarding
schedule corrections, and the implementation of the alternatives for addressing missing logic when performing a contemporaneous period
analysis.
(CDR-4414) Overcoming Noisy Data in Measured Mile Productivity Analysis

TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement
Timothy A. Hampson, PE CCP PSP Ankura Consulting Group
Justin K. Norman, CCP PSP FTI Consulting
Dr. David W. Halligan, PE Ankura Consulting Group
Abstract: The measured mile method of estimating productivity loss uses actual project data to compare periods of expected productivity to
periods of impacted productivity. The difference between expected and impacted productivity is an evaluation of the productivity loss that, when
properly tied to an analysis of cause-and-effect, becomes the basis for determining the quantitative impact of those cause(s) and effect(s) on
productivity.
A measured mile analysis requires identification of a reliable baseline to provide insight into the contractor’s unimpacted performance as it relates
to productivity (hours/unit of measure). When evaluating actual productivity, the period of impacted performance must be identified and isolated
to the periods of work impacted by the cause(s) and effect(s) being considered. While this approach is simple in theory, one of the practical
challenges encountered is that the available productivity data, for any number of reasons, may include data that is not representative of the actual
effort involved or the actual physical work accomplished within a given period. In other words, the information relied upon can be characterized
as “noisy” data. Basing an analysis on noisy data can result in inaccurate and unreliable evaluations of productivity loss.
This paper highlights three practical approaches to dealing with noisy productivity data. The first approach provides a method for identifying and
discounting ramp-up and ramp-down periods of actual productivity as well as offering recommendations for assessing the robustness of the data
sets used in the analysis to assure representative data sets have been selected. The second approach employs rolling averages to analyze achieved
productivity rather than the “all-inclusive” averages typically employed. The third approach presents the advantages of using statistical models to
identify and treat anomalies and outliers in productivity data. These practical approaches can enhance the accuracy of analyzing productivity
impacts using a measured mile.
(COM-4279) (Panel Discussion) AACE Transit Forum: From P3 to Progressive Delivery - Navigating the
Evolution of the Transit Sector Procurement Practices
Time/Location: SUN 1:15-2:15 / Peace 3-4 (1st Floor)
Skill Level: Basic
Ghaith Al-Hiyari, CCP Turner & Townsend
Hans Hoppe Sound Transit
Sedat Akkaya Toronto Transit Commission
Dr. Douglas D. Gransberg, PE Gransberg & Associates, Inc
Matthew Sutherland Hayden Blaze
Abstract: In recent years, collaborative procurement delivery models have surged in popularity across the transit and infrastructure sectors. This
shift may be attributed to escalating economic volatility, increased uncertainty and evolving market dynamics. While the P3 model once reigned
supreme as the preferred method for transit infrastructure contracts, the landscape has dramatically shifted. Collaborative contracting models
are now supplanting the fixed price model of P3 contracts.
Is this merely another fleeting industry trend, or could it signal the long-awaited evolutionary leap within the construction sector? Our panelists
will traverse the challenging terrain of transit infrastructure delivery, engaging in robust debate on the future trajectory of both the industry and
the transit sector.
(COM-4431) (Presentation Only) AACE Power Forum: The Scale Dilemma - Big Versus Many Small

Skill Level: Basic
Eric Vyskocil Laurentis Energy Partners
John R. Baker, Jr. CEP Idaho National Laboratory
Cuneyt Vardar Alvarez & Marsal
Sudhakar R. Pulagam, PEng CCP EVP Comtech Group
Ashrita Srikanth Ontario Power Generation
Abstract: While improvements in AI, developments in big data and digitization of processes have captured a lot of attention recently, there is
another trend with a larger impact on the energy industry: modularization. Many projects in the power industry already involve modularization
in one form or another, solar photovoltaic and wind facilities, battery storage facilities, transmission projects and even thermal generation from
natural gas. The latest addition is small modular reactors which are being embraced by organizations around the world as a way of generating
large amounts of carbon free electricity reliably.
Large construction projects continue to encounter significant cost overruns and delays. Given this, some speculate that large, stick-built projects
in the construction industry are, or should be, a thing of the past. Are we likely to see large one-of-a-kind projects in the energy industry anymore?
Or is the future just going to be a lot of repetition? And if so, what does that mean for project controls?
The AACE Power Forum is a thought leadership community dedicated to AACE members that are active in the power sector. It serves as a think
tank and a gathering space for cost engineering and project controls professionals within the power sector, to work together to address common
challenges, share experiences, solutions, resources, lessons learned, and gain additional insights from experts in the field.
The AACE Power Forum is an initiative brought to you with the aim of increasing AACE membership value and strengthening ties with the various
industries.
(COM-4434) (Presentation Only) Section Leadership Meeting

Dayna L. Anderson The Vertex Companies, LLC
Abstract: AACE section leaders are invited to attend an interactive session. Join us to discuss important section topics, network with other section
leaders, and exchange ideas.
(COM-4436) (Presentation Only) Asset Planning and Management Subcommittee Meeting

Gino Napuri, EVP PMA
(COM-4437) (Presentation Only) Claims & Dispute Resolution Subcommittee Meeting

Mark F. Nagata, PSP Trauner Consulting Services Inc.
Roger Nelson, PE PSP Spire Consulting Group LLC
(COM-4438) (Presentation Only) Cost Estimating Subcommittee Meeting

Time/Location: MON 6:15-7:15 / Magnificent 2 (3rd Floor)
Dave Kyle, CCP CEP CEOptimize Consulting Ltd.
Peter R. Bredehoeft, Jr. CEP FAACE HDR
(COM-4439) (Presentation Only) Data Science & Advanced Analytics Subcommittee Meeting
H. Lance Stephenson, CCP FAACE Hon. Life AECOM
Michael A. Pink SmartPM Technologies, Inc.
(COM-4440) (Presentation Only) Decision & Risk Management Subcommittee Meeting

Time/Location: TUE 5:00-6:00 / Magnificent 3 (3rd Floor)
Sagar B. Khadka, CCP DRMP PSP FAACE TYLin International
Dr. David T. Hulett, FAACE Hulett & Associates, LLC
(COM-4441) (Presentation Only) Planning & Scheduling Subcommittee Meeting

Daniel P. Gilmour, PSP Brasfield & Gorrie LLC
Matthew Freih, PE PSP AECOM
(COM-4442) (Presentation Only) Productivity, Performance, and Earned Value Subcommittee Meeting
Michael F. Marcell, EVP PSP K2 Consulting
(COM-4443) (Presentation Only) Program & Project Management Subcommittee Meeting

Michael S. Pytlik, EVP PSP mcfa
(CSC-4372) (Panel Discussion) Are We Done Yet? When Will We Get There? The Best Way to Reliably
Predict Realistic Project Outcomes
Thomas Q. Carolan Barton Malow Builders
Michael A. Pink SmartPM Technologies, Inc.
Mark W. Cohen, PE J.S. Held
John Colombier Barton Malow Builders
Jim Taylor
Abstract: This session will focus on key performance indicators (KPIs) related to project execution from the perspectives of critical project
stakeholders, including owners, contractors, construction managers, and data analysts. The discussions will revolve around a sample troubled
project that is halfway complete, over budget, behind schedule, and has an inaccurate monthly forecast. How can a realistic and reliable
completion date be determined? While most KPIs are retrospective and may not accurately predict the future beyond a limited time horizon,
some expertly skilled individuals can produce a guesstimate based on their intuition and experience that proves to be remarkably accurate. During
this session, you will hear from a panel of experts with varying degrees of expertise. Additionally, you will gain insights into leveraging digital
resources, such as data analytics and artificial intelligence. By the end of the session, attendees should be better equipped to forecast project
outcomes more effectively.
(CSC-4375) Definition of a Float-Based KPI for Disruption Evaluation in Complex Project Schedules
Time/Location: /
TCM Section(s): 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Alberto Lopez Yus Capgemini Engineering
Abstract: The construction industry has been carrying out projects of increasing complexity during the last two decades. In this process, change
management has become a key activity; however, changes might impact project schedules that, while not always directly affecting the completion
date, they do increase the risk of eventual non-compliance.
This paper is the result of a thorough investigation of project schedule float properties with the objective of producing a simple metric to measure
the ability of project schedules to absorb disruptive events without breaching the contractual key milestones.
The paper starts by proving the limits of the earned value management (EVM) methodology for the discussed topic and why total float is a flawed
metric to measure disruption. It continues showing how the focus can move from tracking activities to tracking project paths within the schedule
by calculating a new float metric, which is named path float (PF). PF is based on certain properties of total float and free float that have never
been addressed.
Finally, the project baseline PF curve, the contemporary PF, and the contemporary scope-to-complete are used to calculate the target key
performance indicator (KPI) named float performance index (FPI).
(DEV-4249) (Presentation Only) Human Skills for Technical Leaders - A Cornerstone for Project Success
Time/Location: MON 10:15-11:15 / Peace 1-2 (1st Floor)
Skill Level: Basic
Shoshanna Fraizinger, CCP Shoshanna Fraizinger Consulting Inc
Abstract: This presentation is designed for current and aspiring managers in technical and project roles.
It provides a review of the essential soft skills required in today's dynamic project environment and includes some deep-dive content on effective
communication techniques, and addressing potential barriers to clear communication. It also explores the intricacies of emotional intelligence,
offering actionable strategies for fostering understanding and empathy within diverse teams.
Guidance and recommendations for advanced leadership strategies, differentiating between management and leadership, and the importance of
ethical decision-making in leadership roles is also covered and supported by real-world anecdotes and case studies. The role of technology in
enhancing managerial effectiveness and guidance on integrating digital tools for optimum outcomes will also be touched on.
The intent is to provide invaluable insights into the skills and knowledge an effective leader should know for managing complex client relationships,
navigating commercial negotiations, and resolving interpersonal conflicts within complex projects and in project management and controls roles.
(DEV-4320) (Presentation Only) Introduction to Cost Engineering and Total Cost Management
Skill Level: Basic
Abstract: This presentation serves as a foundational introduction for newcomers to the cost engineering field, guiding them towards professional
certification. This includes individuals transferring from another profession with no previous cost engineering training. It explores the essentials
of cost engineering, introduces the Total Cost Management (TCM) process, and explains the Total Cost Management Framework. The presentation
focuses on how these elements are integral to the effective management of the total life cycle costs of strategic assets, from their initiation to
decommissioning. This introduction aims to equip readers with a basic understanding of the critical role that proficient cost engineering plays in
asset lifecycle management, its interactions with other stakeholders, and the primary outcomes expected from these engagements. Furthermore,
it seeks to clarify the reader's role within the overall cost engineering process, providing a solid groundwork for further education and professional
advancement in this domain.
It is recommended that DEV-4322 Introduction to AACE also be attended in conjunction with this presentation.
(DEV-4322) (Presentation Only) Introduction to AACE

Skill Level: Basic
Abstract: Welcome to the world of cost engineering and AACE International!
AACE International boasts a global presence and since its inception in 1956, has remained dedicated to fostering collaboration among cost
management professionals. This commitment is evident through its facilitation of idea sharing, the creation of technical standards, provision of
high-quality educational resources, and acknowledgment of industry experts. Members of AACE hail from diverse backgrounds. The organization's
body of knowledge reflects the collective wisdom and experience of professionals worldwide.
This presentation serves as an introductory guide for new members, offering guidance into AACE and its website. It aims to equip readers with
the knowledge necessary to fully leverage AACE's offerings for their career advancement in the field of cost engineering. It introduces AACE's
mission, structure, membership perks, educational programs, networking opportunities as well as avenues for career growth such as certification
and mentorship. Additionally, it sheds light on AACE's extensive body of knowledge, encompassing various publications, their types, organization,
and development processes. Lastly, it highlights the significance of staying informed about AACE's local and global events.
The content presented in this presentation offers a condensed introduction to the AACE website and does not substitute for a thorough
exploration of the website itself. The website offers detailed information on each topic covered in this presentation. The headings used mirror
the structure of the website, facilitating easy navigation and exploration.
It is recommended that DEV-4320 Introduction to Cost Engineering and Total Cost Management also be attended in conjunction with this
presentation.
(DEV-4329) (Panel Discussion) Accelerated Career Growth Through Volunteering, an Overused Tagline or a
Real Game Changer?
Time/Location: TUE 11:30-12:30 / Peace 3-4 (1st Floor)
Skill Level: Basic
Kim Forbes, PSP MBP
Rami Daniel D2 Global
Duan van der Merwe Delta Consulting Group
Lucia Vernon Quantum Global Solutions
Abstract: Volunteering within non-profit professional organizations goes hand-in-hand. Volunteering is a great way to not only give back but also
gain exposure to new skills, open opportunities for personal growth, and develop oneself professionally, or is it? Will it enhance your resume or
take time away from current assignments that could give you the same opportunities if not better career advancement? When assessing your
volunteer journey, one should ask questions such as these during different periods in one's career or personal life to ensure each step is fulfilling
the growth and development they are looking for. During this discussion, you will hear from five seasoned volunteers not only within AACE but
throughout the world impacting a variety of causes. They will highlight how volunteering has driven both their career growth, self-fulfillment, and
mental health along with openly discussing the substantial and tangible benefits.
(DEV-4364) Cost Engineering Competency Matrix for Oil & Gas Business
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 11.2. People and Performance Management
Candra Nugraha, CCP PETRONAS
Ashwin Kumar Al Narayanan PETRONAS
Abstract: Cost estimation is a crucial function in all industries, including the oil and gas business. It is found that many oil companies require an
engineering background to start as a new cost engineer. Potential cost engineers may come from civil, mechanical, process, electrical, and
instrumentation engineering as new entry. A cost engineering competency matrix is developed to accelerate the understanding of scope,
especially for upstream and downstream capital projects. Cost engineers need to be familiar with the overall oil and gas business value chain
which includes engineering, procurement, fabrication, construction/installation, commissioning, and start-up of the project. AACE International
recommended practices are often utilized as guidance for newcomers in preparing a cost estimate, supported by guidelines and manuals.
The inventory of knowledge in a competency matrix should identify levels of understanding of scope, quantity analysis, cost estimating techniques
and application as applied for any contract type, and project scheduling. The competency matrix is developed based on ratings from awareness
(Level 1) through the highest rating for experts ( Level 5). Further, the rating is mapped into an inventory rubric to guide career progression in
support of potential progression into managerial or professional positions. A mentoring system is established to accelerate competency
development to support new entries in preparing cost estimates for projects. An assessment is to be made at least once a year to identify skill
gaps and training to meet business needs in a very challenging oil and gas market.
(DEV-4409) Including the Estimator’s Leadership Traits With the Basis of Capital Cost Estimate

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 11.2. People and Performance Management 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
Saumil H. Maniar, PE PMA Consultants
Abstract: Project controls artifacts like capital cost estimates, schedules, and risk registers can have an outsize influence on public agency owners
to start or stop a project.
The basis of estimate typically explains the estimator’s assumptions, reference documents and methodology. Existing standards, or procurement
documents do not capture the cost estimator’s leadership traits. Neither are leadership traits rated prior to selecting them, nor are they referenced
along with the capital project's estimated cost, planned duration, or risk-based contingency.
The cost estimator’s leadership traits can be rated by many factors like authenticity, empathy, influence, persuasion, psychological safety,
vulnerability, trust, etc. They form a core part of their ability to debate, listen, analyze, include, and exclude while developing the project artifact,
as an individual and in their teams. While these factors are intangible and difficult to quantify, they are a key input variable for planning-level
comparison studies, iterative-design artifacts, order of magnitude deliverables, and machine learning applications.
In a 6-month leadership development program, the author examined his leadership journey as a cost estimator on a large capital construction
program. The paper utilizes this experience and practitioner articles to suggest a narrow checklist to include with the basis of estimate document.
(DEV-4429) (Panel Discussion) Project Controls Women in Leadership – Is There a Magic Formula to Make
it Work?
Skill Level: Basic
Tracy Leung, PEng Ontario Power Generation
Nishadi Perera, EVP PSP K2 Construction Consultants
Shoshanna Fraizinger, CCP Shoshanna Fraizinger Consulting Inc.
Abstract: In the world of project controls, and especially in the engineering and construction industry, there have been some observed
improvement in having more women join the profession. However, the percentage of women in leadership positions are still lower than the labor
market. This hybrid panel/breakout discussion session is an opportunity for conference participants to discuss what the motivators are for a
woman in project controls to choose to lead and to excel in doing so. Is there a magic formula that will encourage and retain female leaders in
the field? Considerations that one would make in a commitment to a leadership role may include work/life balance, systematic discrimination,
cultural norms, unconscious bias, perceptions around roles that are typically male dominated, and many more. Panel speakers will address these
considerations and share their experiences, and choices they made in their leadership journeys. As always, all genders and allies are welcomed
to the discussions!
(DSAA-4200) Data Analytics: Reimagining One's Total Cost Management Journey to Enhance Value
Time/Location: SUN 1:15-2:15 / Magnificent 1 (3rd Floor)
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 11.3. Information Management
Abstract: The project world is experiencing dramatic changes that allow organizations to see into the future with greater clarity, intelligence, and
predictability. Once-used traditional methods of descriptive assessments, such as comparisons of quantitative, lagging data, are now being
replaced by more mature business technologies and intelligence through predictive analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning
(ML).
This new surge of intelligence is provocative and exciting and provides the project delivery world with profound opportunities to increase
efficiencies and effectiveness while decreasing uncertainties. Consequently, this type of intelligence creates endless possibilities for project
delivery improvements and, subsequently, operational success.
With this said, this paper outlines the fundamental requirements for organizations to introduce advanced data analytics into their business
environments. Key points covered in this paper include:
• The shift from traditional, descriptive assessments to advanced analytics technologies.
• The importance of understanding the pillars of data analytics, such as domain knowledge, mathematics, modeling and programming,
and data visualization and communication.
• The fundamental principles for developing a data analytics strategy which include policies, ethics, governance frameworks, key
performance indicators, etc.
• A data analytics capabilities assessment to determine the organization's current status and a roadmap for deploying an advanced
analytics platform and more.
This paper emphasizes the value of data analytics in unlocking new opportunities for growth, innovation, and competitive advantage. By
reimagining one's total cost management journey and embracing advanced analytics capabilities, organizations and individuals alike can position
themselves for success in an increasingly data-driven and competitive business landscape.
(DSAA-4282) Leveraging Data Analytics in Construction Projects to Improve Schedule Predictability and
Stakeholder Relationships
TCM Section(s): 11.3. Information Management 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Jawahar Maran, PE CCP PSP Suffolk Construction
Ben Lamm, PSP Suffolk Construction
Abstract: The construction industry, renowned for its inherent uncertainty, faces challenges in ascertaining whether the secured project starts
with an excessively ambitious contract duration and estimates. Traditionally, project durations are negotiated during the preconstruction phase,
relying on performance and data from similar projects, typical production rates, duration estimates from subcontractors and vendors, and
preconstruction leaders’ skills and expertise. However, this practice has shown a trend of overaggressive and unrealistic duration estimates,
resulting in loss of repeat owners/contracts, workforce attrition, negative impacts on the bottom line and ultimately leading to a reputational risk
for construction companies. To address these issues, a paradigm shift is underway, with contractors now adopting different data analytics
techniques on historical data to develop more achievable plans with owners, specifically during the preconstruction phase.
This shift has proven to be a successful strategy while negotiating contract duration with the owners and improves the level of confidence for
contractors before and during contract execution. Also, leveraging the information from the real-time data analytics throughout the lifecycle of a
construction project allows contractors to accurately predict schedule variances, identify schedule compression, measure project performance,
and make informed decisions to overcome events or changes that might lead to schedule delays. Facilitating a transparent, data-driven approach
enables contractors to build robust relationships with owners, fostering collaboration with stakeholders to effectively manage expectations and
achieve optimal project success. This paper delves into how construction firms leverage varied data analytics techniques across key WBS elements
at different stages of the life cycle to derive a realistic but achievable duration to bolster their competitive advantage and enhance overall project
success.
(DSAA-4300) Supercharging Asset Longevity with IoT Sensors and AI

TCM Section(s): 11.3. Information Management 2.3. Strategic Asset Management Process Map
Rob Coslett Deloitte
Shirley Albritton Deloitte
Eric Dembert Deloitte
Tim Kelly Deloitte
Avi Schwartz Deloitte
Ephraim Schoenbrun Deloitte
Abstract: The current state of facility asset management relies upon infrequent inspections leading to fix-at-failure and preventive or scheduled
maintenance strategies, which directly contribute to the trillion-dollar federal facilities' deferred maintenance and repair backlog in the United
States. To improve asset management programs, many organizations are looking into more technologically advanced maintenance strategies to
shift from reactive or preventative facility management to using data to drive their maintenance strategy. Data-driven decision-making is emerging
as the cornerstone of effective facility management. Industries are rapidly adopting this paradigm shift, focusing on the escalating importance of
accessible and dependable data. This trend is particularly pertinent to aging infrastructure and facilities, where the availability of accurate data
plays a pivotal role in curtailing maintenance costs by allowing organizations to allocate funds to those assets in need of maintenance.
This paper describes the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and internet of things (IoT) sensors to create a transformative predictive
maintenance (PdM) solution, allowing asset owners and managers to carefully predict upcoming equipment failures and take the required steps
to mitigate them. In cases with modern assets, programmable logic controller (PLC) data may be used and incorporated into AI models. This paper
will focus specifically on IoT integration and post-installation on older assets. Use cases, implementation methods, and specific considerations will
be highlighted to illustrate the efficacy of this solution. Lastly, the processes of a case study are highlighted to demonstrate how this application
was delivered in a real-world scenario. The trajectory of asset management is poised to shift dramatically from traditional reactive maintenance
towards PdM strategies, and this solution is a critical component to achieving that goal.
(DSAA-4328) A Case Study on the Usage of Data Analytics and Machine Learning to Measure Schedule
Health
Kaylyn Mickelsen, PSP Planet Forward Energy Solutions (PFES)
Stephanie Zerkel Planet Forward Energy Solutions (PFES)
Joseph Lozada Planet Forward Energy Solutions (PFES)
Hamid Sayed Planet Forward Energy Solutions (PFES)
Abstract: This paper is an exploration and case study into the use of data analytics and machine learning as tools that can be combined with
industry standards for schedule health analysis. Utilizing machine learning (ML) algorithms, schedule health data can predict future project
schedule outcomes. The concepts presented are combined with current market tools for business intelligence reporting, scheduling, and model
creation. The software used in this case study includes Microsoft Power BI, Oracle Primavera P6, and Microsoft AutoML to deliver high-quality
schedule health data and forecasted performance on projects in a portfolio. The intent of using these techniques is to make data easily accessible
and understandable to allow for enhanced decision-making capabilities throughout an organization.
This analysis supports AACE's proper schedule development adherence [1] and criteria for constructability reviews [2].The authors will show how
machine learning is a natural next step in the data analytics process when building a schedule health dashboard. In this paper, the authors explain
the typical machine learning process and compare it to Microsoft's AutoML machine learning tool, which is available as part of their Power BI
analytics platform, where the advantages of AutoML are highlighted.
(DSAA-4395) Industrial Goods Cost Estimating Using Machine Learning Techniques

TCM Section(s): 11.3. Information Management 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
Fernando Nahid Leitão Petrobras
Adriano Gonçalves da Silva Petrobras
Leonardo Carmo de Holanda Petrobras
Abstract: The acquisition of industrial goods is essential to ensuring the functionality of equipment, factories, and operational plants in different
companies. Unlike simpler or consumer goods, industrial goods do not have their prices published and, generally, are not part of standardized
catalogs. Therefore, an accurate forecast of industrial goods prices is essential for achieving favorable outcomes for companies, whether it be
through accurate cost estimates or improving the quality of commercial negotiations.
This project involves the application of data mining and machine learning techniques in typical databases of industrial goods. Examples of
techniques used include classification algorithms, regression, and neural networks.
In the present work, the techniques were applied to three distinct typical databases: database 1 - items with simple technical characteristics like
common materials from the supplier market without manufacturing complexity; database 2 - operational items with specific and standardized
technical characteristics; and database 3 - items with complex technical characteristics, normally associated with large equipment.
The work conclusion aims to determine the most efficient machine learning models for each database and develop a guide for estimating the cost
of different industrial goods.
(DSAA-4406) Optimization Techniques and Metaheuristics in Project Scheduling: Using Real-World

Applications to Estimate Sustainability Metrics
Dr. Achintyamugdha S. Sharma JCMS, Inc.
Dr. Priyanka Deka JCMS, Inc.
Goutam Jois, Esq. JCMS, Inc.
Umesh K. Jois JCMS, Inc.
Abstract: This paper investigates the application of optimization techniques to develop schedule scenarios with different relationships between
activities, with an emphasis on reducing environmental emissions in terms of global warming potential (GWP) CO2-equivalent. The research team
has investigated the potential improvement of its previously developed in-house method of integrating environmental sustainability metrics with
critical path method (CPM) schedules, by using metaheuristics and optimization techniques. This previously developed novel method estimates
100-year global warming potential (GWP) CO2-equivalent emissions as a function of the CPM schedule at an activity level. The intent of this paper
is to explore further automation and optimization of certain aspects of this method of estimating sustainability metrics.
Moreover, the application of optimization techniques to develop schedule scenarios with different relationships between activities with an
emphasis on reducing environmental emissions in terms of global warming potential (GWP) CO2-equivalent is investigated. Prior researchers have
applied metaheuristics like the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), simulated annealing (SA), ant colony optimization
(ACO), etc., to develop schedules with minimum overall duration under the constraints of limited resources. With a focus on GA, the authors
investigate the real-world applications of metaheuristics to optimize critical path method (CPM)- based project schedules. This investigation also
provided the opportunity to explore further automation and optimization of certain aspects of this methodology for estimating sustainability
metrics.
This paper builds on this research group’s previous article presented and published in AACE International Transactions 2023 [1].
(EST-4203) Independent Cost Estimate’s Value on Construction Manager/General Contractor

Transportation Projects

TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
Dr. Douglas D. Gransberg, PE Gransberg & Associates, Inc.
Dr. Milagros Pinto-Nunez Walter P. Moore Engineering
Dr. Nils J. Gransberg Gransberg & Associates, Inc.
Abstract: Construction manager/general contractor (CMGC) project delivery by state departments of transportation (DOT) has grown substantially
since it was originally authorized in 2000. The Utah DOT was an early adopter and other DOTs turned to it for CMGC implementation guidance.
The UDOT program includes an "Independent Cost Estimate (ICE) consultant" to furnish a third opinion to validate the CMGC contractor's
estimated construction cost and the current agency estimate during construction price negotiations. Conversely, DOTs in Arizona and Florida do
not use an ICE. A 2010 NCHRP study reviewed the three DOTs and found no evidence of a difference in project performances attributable to an
ICE. This paper revisits the perception of the value of the ICE after a decade of experience by analyzing, recent CMGC solicitations from 25 states
compared to the 2010 findings. The paper finds that no quantitative performance difference has been identified between projects with an ICE
and projects without; however, the number of DOTs that use an ICE greatly outnumbers those that don't, leading the paper to conclude that there
is a perceived value-added by the presence of an ICE and recommending quantitative research to confirm that perception.
(EST-4232) A Technical Approach to Classify Decommissioning Cost Estimates

TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting 3.2. Asset Planning
Leonardo Muller, CCP PRMP PSP Petrobras
Alberto Carlos Caldeira Costa Coelho Petrobras
Cócis Alexandre dos Santos Balbino Petrobras
Abstract: Cost estimate classification systems are a practical approach to improve communications among all the stakeholders involved with
planning, preparing, evaluating, and using cost estimates. AACE International published many cost estimate classification systems for several
industries and asset stages, but no specific recommended practice (RP) for decommissioning cost estimates was issued. Considering the current
situation of cost estimates for decommissioning fixed platforms as a case study, this paper analyses the workarounds performed by the industry
that can lead to misinterpretation of the RPs – mainly 18R-97 – adopted to perform decommissioning cost estimates. The paper proposes an
innovative view identifying three key phases and intermediate transition stages to develop an RP-oriented classification system matrix draft with
five estimate classes. The draft can provide a starting point or go-by for any organization’s internal procedures or industry debate. This proposal
represents a mindset shift towards an RP-oriented approach, which is applicable in other industry sectors to help eliminate the decommissioning
RP gap workarounds.
(EST-4304) Evolution of Cost Estimating from the 1950s to Today

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 0.0. General Reference 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
Hetali Doshi Arcadis
Douglas W. Leo, CCP CEP FAACE Hon. Life Cost Consultant
Abstract: This paper follows the evolution of project cost estimating from the 1950s, to today’s current technological advancements. More
specifically, it focuses on developments that have shifted the cost estimating process from manual calculations by solo practitioners to the
complex, computer-aided analyses performed by estimators, often in teams, whose firms employ the latest and greatest technological advances.
Today’s professionals analyze the types of production, evaluate the estimating-related issues, apply appropriate techniques, and try new
innovations. Among such innovations, this paper will discuss cost estimating tools such as BIM, artificial intelligence, and drone video usage. Other
challenges here considered include the employment of sustainable net-zero estimating and the costs of carbon capture and mitigation.
(EST-4349) Estimating Productivity Adjustments

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Luke McMullan, CEP Parametrix
Ben Crawley Parametrix
Catherine Cerruti Parametrix
Abstract: This paper examines the utilization of productivity factors as a method for increasing the accuracy of labor cost estimation in construction
projects. Traditional labor cost estimating approaches often overlook the intricate interplay of factors influencing workforce productivity. Through
a review of productivity loss causes and their observed applications, this study highlights their potential to capture an improved project planning
and resource allocation. The paper discusses challenges associated with project constraints, obstacles, and external influencing factors and
provides a qualitative solution to accounting for productivity loss. Ultimately, this research contributes valuable insights into bridging the gap
between theoretical productivity models and their effective integration into real-world infrastructure development.
(EST-4352) Successful Implementation of Continuous Estimating for Target Costing in Collaborative

Contracts

TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting 3.3. Investment Decision Making
Behrad Kiafar, CEP PwC Canada
Daniel Drouin Drouin Consultants
Abstract: Continuous estimating is a dynamic approach employed for target costing in collaborative contracts, where project costs are estimated
iteratively during validation and design phases, providing enough detail to guide the design toward meeting target costs. Unlike conventional
estimating, which determines costs at specific design milestones, continuous estimating offers ongoing capital cost data for the entire project
based on the latest scope and design changes. These estimates serve various purposes, including validating owner’s allowable costs, screening
design options, setting target costs, and implementing design-to-target cost or target value design. Continuous estimating promotes collaboration,
enhances visibility and transparency in the estimating process, and supports the effective implementation of collaborative contracts.
The challenges in implementing effective continuous conceptual estimating in collaborative contracts include building a trust-based and
collaborative environment among stakeholders. Additionally, there's a need to shift the traditional estimating mindset to agile and collaborative
methodologies. Gaining access to high-quality historical data is also crucial, along with a sufficient understanding of the cost estimate relationships
with the technical parameters of the project, which is essential for developing conceptual models.
This paper outlines a structured framework for the effective implementation of continuous estimating and presents challenges, lessons learned,
and key success factors based on integrated project delivery (IPD) infrastructure projects in Canada.
(EST-4363) Cost Estimate Challenges for FPSO Decommissioning

Time/Location: /
Skill Level: Basic
Candra Nugraha, CCP PETRONAS
Husaini Md Rasid PETRONAS
Abstract: FPSO Decommissioning estimates are very depending on the technical complexity and commercial terms of the contract (Capital/Lease).
There are number of challenges that make it difficult to accurately estimate the cost especially on the exposure of hazardous material,
environmental conditions at the site, and lack of historical data within the region. The FPSO decommissioning have been estimated in Deepwater
Mauritania (2018) and Shallow water Malaysia (2022) are referred for lessons learnt.
Decommissioning process of FPSO can be categorized into two (2) major activities related to pre-execution and offshore execution. The pre-
execution includes planning and permitting (engineering, pre shutdown survey, approval of relevant procedures, appointment of subcontractors,
etc.). Meanwhile, the offshore execution started from cease of production, pigging & flushing the flow lines and umbilical, securing wells, topside
cleaning including contaminated systems, mooring chains disconnection and abandonment till sail away to designated area. It is important to
include the activities post decommissioning such as dismantling and scrap, disposal, and post survey to make sure work completion clean and
safe. The waste management should be carefully evaluated as part of liability in accordance with Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). It is
found that the unexpected cost may happen due to Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORMS) appeared and special treatments are
required prior to dispose to safe area as per Authority approval. Risks associated with abandonment and decommissioning strategy were
anticipated related to interface with Wells P&A, scope demarcation with FPSO owner, delay in approval of permits from government and weather
conditions during execution.
(EST-4402) Indirect Costs Estimating Based on Statistical Analysis

TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting 10.4. Project Historical Database Management
Dr. Chunhong Tian Enbridge
Prashant K. Srivastava, PEng Enbridge
Ryan McPhee Enbridge
Wilson Ting, PEng Enbridge
Amita Narayanan, CCP Enbridge
Nathan Len, PEng Enbridge
Abstract: Project costs consist of both direct and indirect costs. Indirect costs are those not directly assignable to the end-product or its progress.
These include overhead costs for the support teams, general labor costs, transportation costs, insurance, taxes, etc. Indirect costs are often more
challenging to control or determine because they represent general cost of the organization generated in favor of more than one project.
Estimating these costs can be complex due to variations based on project scope, size, location, and so on.
In this work, a substantial amount of cost data from actual legacy projects analyzed was collected at the work breakdown structure (WBS) level
and statistically analyzed. Consequently, recommendations for estimating indirect costs at the line-item level were established based on the data
and statistical model.
In the statistical model, scaling factors were introduced to estimate indirect costs for projects across eight different cost bands. Applying the
“average - before - fit” methodology, which statistically normalized the fluctuations and random data distribution caused by the heavier weight
of small projects, resulted in a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit, with the R-squared value increasing from approximately 0.1 to
around 0.9.
The resulting indirect cost percentage recommendations have been integrated into the estimating tool and have been tested with actual project
costs benchmarks. The variance between the calculated indirect costs, based on the newly determined percentages, and their actual benchmark
costs was found to be less than 5%.
(EST-4430) Navigating Effective Capital Cost Estimate Review and Assurance

Time/Location: /
Skill Level: Basic
Noorussaadah Bt Yahya Petronas
Abstract: It has always been the aspiration of the author’s company to have the project capital delivered at optimum accuracy and competitive
costs. This will ensure the achievement of sustainable competitive advantages. However, the pace of project costs has increased quickly until it is
challenging for the company to effectively predict and estimate the costs. To ensure that the company is always able to be cost-competitive and
predictive, relevant usages of cost-estimating fundamental drivers, such as cost estimation systems, tools, and good governance and assurance
processes and practices must be effectively leveraged. The objective of this paper is to address the capability of the cost engineering department
to leverage cost-estimating review approaches along with the best practices adopted in successfully undertaking efforts to drive projects toward
being delivered at manageable, improved accuracy, and competitive costs. This paper will also focus on the cost estimate review methodologies
and guidelines in identifying key areas where the estimate may be deficient, and or additional focus is required. The deployment of good cost
estimate review governance and assurance processes is to align the expectations and requirements for cost estimations in the application of
company standards and quality management systems (QMS).
(EVM-4197) The Value of Earned Value

TCM Section(s): 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement 10.2. Forecasting
Sylvia M. Donado Arcadis, Inc
John Holincheck Acuity International
Abstract: Earned value management is a technique that can improve the overall project planning and control as well as contribute to improved
communication of project status. The implementation of this technique can prove to be incredibly challenging for many organizations. Successful
implementation and use is dependent on several factors and considerations lining up in a manner which tracking and analysis can be done in an
objective manner across the entire project. The appropriate level of detail, considering risks while developing the schedule, allocating budgets in
accordance with appropriate controls accounts, data collection, & tracking metrics are among these challenges that become critical for a successful
EVMS implementation. Furthermore, making sure the entire project team clearly understands and contributes to the planning and control metrics
being used becomes critical to communicating with the project team to facilitate decision-making & forecasting to ensure overall project success.
(EVM-4215) Is Cost Performance Index Predictive of Project Performance?

TCM Section(s): 2.1. Basis of Total Cost Management Processes 1.4. Key Introductory Concepts for Total Cost
Management
Eric Vyskocil Laurentis Energy Partners
Ashrita Srikanth Ontario Power Generation
Abstract: The key measure of a metric’s usefulness is its ability to accurately predict what will occur in a project. In particular, the ability of a
project to be able to accurately predict the total costs associated with the work is essential, allowing the team to take corrective action when
necessary. While earned value management (EVM) is a recommended practice by numerous international organizations, it is important to confirm
that metrics like the cost performance index (CPI) have predictive power to be able to accurately forecast a project’s at completion costs.
Using Ontario Power Generation’s (OPG) project historical data warehouse, it is possible to review historical trends in project performance at OPG
to assess different metrics and their usefulness in predicting the project’s at completion costs. This paper will summarize some of the analyses
performed, comparing the predictive value of the CPI against the estimate at completion (EAC) forecast by project teams.
(EVM-4408) Basics of Earned Value Management - How & Why

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 10.1. Project Performance Assessment 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement
Carole A. Venters, CCP EVP Worley
Abstract: This paper will discuss: what is earned value management (EVM); how is earned value (EV) calculated; when should EVM be used; and
above all, why does project management want to know the EV of their projects? This paper will lead the reader through these and other questions
often asked by new project controls professionals as well as other project team leads. A brief history of EVM will be discussed, as well as various
(typical) equations for determining the EV and the methods for presenting this EV information to the project management team. There are many
articles and books which have been written about earned value management; this paper intends to give a brief summation from a few of those
articles and books.
(EVM-4419) (Presentation Only) EVM Reviews – Surveillance Reviews vs. IBRs

Sam Kitchin Augur Consulting
J. Greg Smith, EVP Humphreys and Associates
Abstract: Successful Earned Value Management (EVM) implementation requires an effective Earned Value Management System (EVMS) and a
well-planned performance measurement baseline. Meaningful insight into project performance can only be achieved with this combination of a
compliant system with the active planning and management of project execution. A critical method to evaluate adherence to EVM best practices
is to conduct reviews. Compliance reviews and surveillance reviews are used to evaluate the sufficiency of the EVMS, while integrated baseline
reviews are used to assess the reasonableness of a project baseline. This presentation will compare and contrast these two types of review,
demonstrating how and why they differ. Key terminology, stakeholders, artifacts, timeline, and intended results will be discussed. Real life
examples may be used.
(EVM-4420) Performance Baseline-Contract (PB-K) Based Independent Estimate-at-Completion (iEAC)

TCM Section(s): 10.2. Forecasting
S. Brian Kong, PE CCP U.S. Department of Energy
Abstract: Past performance is a predictor of future performance. This paper provides a unique independent estimate-at-completion (iEAC)
technique that factors past performance, control account manager (CAM) & project manager (PM) EACs, risks, and hotel load. This integrated
schedule and cost technique using earned value management (EVM) has proven successful in identifying projects that may breach the approved
baseline. This early indicator enables projects to strategically identify and address root causes as well as implement recovery plans. Further, it
allows projects to enforce favorable performance.
(IND-4336) (Presentation Only by HATCH) A Digital Project Delivery Journey: Taking Project Controls to
the Next Level
Leslie E. McMullan, FAACE HATCH
Ashwin Lala HATCH
Abstract: Digital Project Delivery (DPD) is the use of digital data and models to plan, estimate, engineer, procure, construct, commission and
operate facilities. It helps firms adopt or develop technologies that support a collaborative environment, providing the information in a structured
and real-time way through a data hub during execution and provides a digital twin for operations.
This presentation describes the journey to an integrated digital project control system for cost effective and efficient project delivery. Results
include the enhancement of forecasting and predictability, change management, risk management and earned value. Efficiencies realized by the
seamless development of estimating to cost control to benchmarking provide the means for automated analytics and decision opportunities,
rather than simply data collection and reporting.
Digital project controls and digital project management is steering towards greater collaboration and efficiencies between project disciplines and
stakeholders. It also enhances the role and skills required. With further industry trends and innovation, we imagine a bold and positive future for
project controls and estimating, unlocking greater value for owners and stakeholders.
(IND-4444) (Presentation Only by Steelray Software) Changing the Economics of Half-Step Delay Analyses
Brian Leach Steelray Software
Jacob Goins Steelray Software
Abstract: In 2018, Steelray began working on technology to automate a methodology for calculating the impact of schedule delays. We based it
on MIP 3.4 from the AACEI RP 29R-03, Forensic Schedule Analysis. A Half-step delay analysis answers the question: Which changes caused the
finish date to move between two schedule updates, and to what extent is each change culpable?
Outside of the construction industry, half-step delay analyses are virtually unknown and seldom practiced, and the reasons for this are economic
in nature. Without the large sums of money at risk in claims disputes, the analysis has traditionally been too time-consuming and expensive to
be cost-effective. With the introduction of automated tools like Steelray Delay Analyzer, the economics have changed radically.
This presentation will examine the use cases, considerations, impact, and future applications of automating the half-step delay analysis.
(IND-4445) (Presentation Only by InEight) The Future of Construction Scheduling: A Collaborative Journey
with AI
Jordan Brooks, EVP PSP InEight
Dominic Cozzetto InEight
Abstract: For decades, scheduling has served as its own, isolated process. As evolving methodologies, delivery methods, and materials continue
to shape construction’s future, it is clear that scheduling deserves a change of its own. Join Jordan Brooks, Principal Product Manager and Dominic
Cozzetto, Product Director at InEight, as they explore how innovative technologies and refined best practices can elevate schedules from an
operational silo into a strategic center. From improved collaboration and communication to AI-driven analytics and data collection, this webinar
invites viewers to rethink their schedule experience and create a more certain tomorrow. Unlock the potential of collaborative scheduling.
Key discussion points:

- Challenges in Traditional Scheduling: Explore the limitations of siloed scheduling, complex tools, and the inability to adapt to modern project
delivery models.
- The Collaborative Advantage: See how collaborative scheduling enhances accuracy, trust, and efficiency by leveraging your team's expertise.
- AI Integration: Discover how AI can augment the scheduling process, provide transparent insights, and facilitate informed decision-making.
- Practical Application: Understand how to implement collaborative scheduling practices and AI tools in your projects for immediate impact.
(IND-4446) (Presentation Only by Hexagon Asset Lifecycle Intelligence Division) The Top 6 Technology
Trends in Project Performance
Cynthia Gomes Hexagon Asset Lifecycle Intelligence (ALI)
Abstract: Technology is advancing at an unprecedented rate. For leaders in project-driven industries, it can be difficult to keep up with the latest
tech trends and even more so to decipher which will reshape the industry or disappear in a flash. How can you tell which advances are necessary
to keep your organization competitive without getting lost in the technology sauce? During this session, we will explore the top technology trends
that are benefiting project planning, performance and controls. Aligning with these trends will allow organizations to:
- Instill confidence in decision-makers

- Ensure scalability and stop the “rip-and-replace” cycle
- Boost user adoption and buy-in
- Maximize budgets and resources
- Enhance visibility into performance
- Promote stakeholder trust
(IND-4447) (Presentation Only by SmartPM Technologies)

Michael A. Pink SmartPM Technologies
(IND-4448) (Presentation Only by Cleopatra Enterprise) One Platform, Endless Possibilities: The Benefits
of Integrated Tooling in Project Management
Babette Schep, CCT Cost Engineering Consultancy BV
Abstract: In the dynamic landscape of project management, markets face numerous challenges. From fragmented processes to disjointed data,
these obstacles hinder efficiency and impede project success. Cleopatra Enterprise software platform offers an integrated solution to overcome
these challenges.
With Cleopatra Enterprise, Project managers can:

• Streamline the project management by centralizing all project data and documentation
• Generate detailed cost estimates quickly and accurately
• Manage costs throughout the project lifecycle
• Leverage historical project data and benchmarking to generate key insights
• Make informed decisions, minimize risks and ensure project success with real-time insights into the project performance and financials.
(IND-4449) (Presentation Only by Safran Software Solutions) Practical Application of RP 57R-09

Ian Nicholson, PEng Emerald Associates
Abstract: RP 57R-09 lays out the steps to perform an integrated cost and schedule risk analysis effectively. The requirement of the RP is that you
start with a cost loaded schedule to conduct the analysis. Cost loading a schedule (ie one which includes time independent costs) is a time-
consuming process for those who normally build a resource loaded schedule (one that is only loaded with time dependent costs). Adding time
independent costs to a schedule usually requires additional activities and constraints be added to the schedule to place those costs, which
compromises the schedule. Changes to either the schedule or cost estimate can require extensive rework and reconciliation of the cost loaded
schedule.
A practical approach to resolve this issue and speed model development is to build a risk model that includes linked cost and schedule modules.
The costs which are time-dependent (labor and rented equipment) can be linked to those activities which drive the costs while the time
independent costs (materials and placed equipment) can be modeled without linkage to the schedule. This allows concurrent modeling of cost
and schedule and the analysis of Joint Confidence Level (JCL) without the requirement to build the cost loaded schedule. It also speeds model
development and analysis because the cost and schedule models can be completed and analyzed independently or jointly, the latter allowing the
impact of schedule on cost to be calculated by exclusion.
This presentation will describe the challenges of developing the cost loaded schedule, the advantages of the combined model approach and the
results obtained.
(IND-4450) (Presentation Only by Contruent) The Wild Ride: Lessons Learned in Driving Technology
Innovation in Project Controls
Mike Shore Contruent
(IND-4451) (Presentation Only by Planisware)

-TBD-
(IND-4452) (Presentation Only by Omega365) Live Demonstration of our Fully Integrated Platform for
Managing Projects and Assets
Arvid Markhus Omega365
Abstract: The Omega 365 cloud platform offers seamless project and asset management, empowering teams with best practices. Experience a
live demonstration of our fully integrated software, where we will showcase how we combine the use of AI technology, BIM modeling,
workflows, risk, cost and schedule, and other core project functionalities, all within Omega 365.
(IND-4453) (Presentation Only by Contruent) The Future of Construction Technology: Crossing the Digital
Chasm in Project Controls
Rich Humphrey Contruent
Dathan Beasley Turner & Townsend
(IND-4454) (Presentation Only) - Industry Showcase - TBD

-TBD-
(IND-4455) (Presentation Only) - Industry Showcase - TBD

-TBD-
(INT-4273) The Challenges of Business Development for Engineering Firms and Contractors
Lan Zhang Century 3 Shanghai
Yi Fang Century 3 Shanghai
Zhenyu Qiang Century 3 Shanghai
Abstract: One of the most significant challenges faced by engineering firms and contractors is the quest for more business leads to enhance their
chances of winning additional projects. The conventional method involves identifying requests for proposals (RFPs) and following the bidding
process by tracking information from permitting details, new project announcements, funding approval news, or even rumors. While this
methodology works well for most companies, it lacks a straightforward direction, resulting in random and unstable outcomes. The question arises:
How and where can new business leads be found before the RFP stage? This paper, based on the project execution cycle model from the industrial
leader DuPont, analyzes the major phases before the RFP. It explores stakeholders from the business and technical lines, examining their objectives
and pain points to identify solutions that may add value for the client. This approach helps companies engage earlier in the process before the
RFP, systematically obtaining business leads at earlier stages. The paper presents a business development mechanism, assisting engineering firms
and contractors in generating leads systematically and staying ahead of their peers.
(IT-4291) Robotic Process Automation (RPA) for Cost Estimating

TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting 11.3. Information Management
Sulaiman Alabdulkarim Saudi Aramco
Josue E. Garcia, CCP CEP Saudi Aramco
Rafael E. Lozada F. Saudi Aramco
Abstract: Robotic process automation (RPA) is a rapidly evolving technology that has been widely adopted in various industries for its ability to
automate repetitive and rule-based tasks. In the oil & gas industry, estimating is a critical function that involves predicting the cost of a project
accurately for planning, funding, and project management purposes. Occasionally, estimator professionals are required to produce multiple types
of estimates that are often repetitive and high volume such as onshore maintain potential funding estimates and annual capital program
conceptual estimates. This paper presents two cases of RPA implementation in the Saudi Aramco oil and gas industry. The first one is related to
the review, validation and endorsement of cost estimates for the onshore maintain potential funding process, and the second one is related to
updating annual capital program cost estimates, due to changes in the initial and final execution schedule. The latter are very frequently requested
from the estimating division. The implementation of RPA has led to increased productivity, reduced processing times, consistent and accurate
estimate production, as well as minimizing the involvement of estimator professionals. The paper provides an overview of the RPA implementation
process, the benefits realized, and the challenges faced during the implementation process.
(OWN-4202) Perceived Risk in Project Delivery Method Selection in the U.S. Federal Transportation Sector
TCM Section(s): 4.1. Project Implementation 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Dr. Douglas D. Gransberg, PE Gransberg & Associates, Inc.
Daniel D'Angelo, PE Applied Research Associates, Inc
Abstract: The project delivery method (PDM) selection decision in transportation projects involves the agency comparing authorized PDMs against
project risks to identify the one perceived to permit the owner to best manage risk. A recent Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study found
that state departments of transportation (DOT) rely on a qualitative approach based on the perceived risks inherent to each PDM. This paper
reports the results of case study interviews from 11 DOTs, involving rating 19 project outcomes and the value of early contractor involvement
portrayed by 15 typical preconstruction services touted as risk management methods in the literature. The analysis was conducted using two
approaches: classic Likert scale ratings (risk perceptions) and factorial pairwise comparison (risk mitigation perceptions). The paper finds that the
outcome reached by each approach was different. The Likert scale rating indicated that design-build (DB) was the preferred PDM; whereas, the
pairwise comparison found construction manager/general contractor (CMGC) to be the preferred method. The paper infers that the difference
relates to the need for the agency to surrender control of the design details in DB. When a head-to-head comparison is made on the 34 variables
CMGC is perceived to provide enhanced scope certainty as well as cost and schedule certainty when the DOT controls the design.
(OWN-4253) Applying Lessons Learned From Past Schedules

TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 7.6. Risk Management
Andre K. W. Chong Teck Resources
Abstract: This paper presents a method to analyze historical schedule data for contracts that experienced delays. The aim is to identify schedule
risk factors and incorporate mitigation strategies into future contract development.
At the end of a project a table is created that sums up the overall delays to the project end date. The as-built schedule is measured against the
contractor’s schedule at award to pinpoint critical path delays. Each reason for delay is normalized into a percentage of the total delay. This will
be referred to as a ‘delay table’ in this paper. To prepare for future contracts of a similar nature, it is recommended to review the delay table to
identify applicable risk factors and formulate mitigation strategies. For instance, if a heavy rain event resulted in flooding on a poorly drained
site on a past project in the area, the project team can evaluate their new project to assess if the risk of localized flooding will impact their site. If
the site is well-drained this risk is not as applicable, and no further action is required. If the site is poorly drained, however, mitigation strategies
should be developed to minimize the impact.
Delay tables can also provide another data point during contract negotiations. For example, historical data showing how inclement weather
impacted productivity on past projects in the area can be compared with the contractor’s assessment of impact from the same risk factors. Finally,
comparing delay tables from similar project types or the same contractor may reveal patterns that lead to changes in how the organization
operates.
(OWN-4268) Effectively Leveraging Schedule Reserve

TCM Section(s): 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Stephen L. Cabano, FAACE Pathfinder, LLC
Zachary Ledet Pathfinder, LLC
Abstract: The identification of schedule reserve has emerged as an effective approach to acknowledge and manage unforeseen events during
project development and execution. Schedule reserve is the practice of allocating extra time within a project schedule to accommodate
unexpected delays, risks, and uncertainties. Moreover, the practice of incorporating schedule reserves facilitates the proactive assessment of
resources, processes, and technological factors. This focused pre-examination of a project fosters an environment conducive to achieving
successful project outcomes. Although the significance of schedule reserve is acknowledged, creating a strategy that leverages time reserve while
aligning with other project aspects proves to be a complex task.
This paper is based on an owner project team approach and the value it brings to the owner organization’s senior management and business
leaders. Drawing upon an extensive multi-industry discourse, this paper explores methodologies for seamlessly integrating and visually
representing contingency measures. This study further delves into insights on mitigating unintended added cost associated with contingency
development, preventing complacency-driven cultural implications, and circumventing redundant planning endeavors within the framework of
implementing and communicating schedule reserve. The primary objective of this study is to enhance the comprehension and assimilation of
contingency durations and events, as derived from statistical risk studies, into project schedules. The implementation of these techniques and
methodologies have potential to enhance the overall efficacy of project execution and foster more successful project outcomes.
(OWN-4271) PM Responsibilities Comparison Model Between Owner and Contractor for a Theme Park
Project
TCM Section(s): 4.1. Project Implementation 11.2. People and Performance Management
Lan Zhang Century 3 Shanghai
Kai Wang Century 3 Shanghai
Renjun Luo Century 3 Shanghai
Abstract: The current study on the responsibilities of project managers (PMs) focuses on the project itself, where the PM is responsible for safety,
quality, cost, and scheduling. However, every project has two parties: the owner and the contractor. Owing to the differences in their roles and
interests, they have different priorities and common grounds. By identifying these differences, addressing them, and expanding the common
ground, a project can be executed successfully and under control toward its objectives. This study is based on the definition of the responsibilities
of a PM in a literature review. A comparison model was developed by utilizing the primary scope of the work and the responsibilities of the PM at
each phase from the owner and contractor sides. The model was further explained through a case study of a theme park project. The comparison
model presents how the owner’s PM leads project management, whereas the contractor’s PM delivers the project. The model enriches the body
of knowledge on project management by analyzing the processes of two major stakeholders to reduce confrontations and increase cooperation.
(OWN-4308) Main Challenges and Strategies in Utility-Scale Solar Projects

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 3.2. Asset Planning 3.3. Investment Decision Making
Dennis Y. Bocuzzi Alvarez & Marsal
Vitor Ladeira Alvarez & Marsal
Abstract: Investments in the power sector increased by around 12% in 2022, surpassing the trillion milestone at USD 1.1 trillion, with 2023
expected to see further growth to almost USD 1.2 trillion. Solar projects represent the largest portion of that amount, with over 300 billion
investments worldwide.
Despite a continuous expected growth for 2023, renewable energy projects face increasing challenges, due to cost and supply chain constraints,
which are driving profitability down and, in some cases, having investors rethink such capital allocation. For those reasons, concern with the
project execution has arisen further, from development stages, and mainly through contracting and construction phases.
This paper describes the landscape for the deployment of utility-scale solar enterprises in emerging markets (where Brazil is heavily invested), the
major risks associated with such projects, and recommended practices and methodologies for owners to achieve their targets regarding cost,
schedule, and operational requirements.
(OWN-4348) Reviewing and Validating Third-Party Cost Estimates

Luke McMullan, CEP Parametrix
Jack Treval Parametrix
Jake Chalin Parametrix
Abstract: This paper offers an overview of the typical process involved in reviewing a third-party cost estimate for transparency, estimating
methodology, and subsequent validation of the projected cost. Drawing on industry best practices, the paper delves into the crucial stages of
receiving, and critically assessing cost estimates, ensuring that they are transparently derived and align with project specifications. It examines
strategies for deciphering complex estimation methodologies, clarifying assumptions, and addressing potential discrepancies. Additionally, the
paper explores methods for validating the estimate through benchmarking, expert opinions, and comparative analysis, aiming to bolster
confidence in the accuracy and reliability of the estimated cost. By providing this comprehensive framework, the paper serves as a valuable guide
for construction professionals, project managers, and stakeholders, enabling them to navigate the intricacies of third-party cost estimation and
make informed decisions based on robust and transparent cost projections.
(OWN-4386) Setting Up a Cost Engineering Department and a Benchmark of Its Estimating Practice - A
Case Study

TCM Section(s): 7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting 4.1. Project Implementation
Muftau J. Akanbi, CCP Baker Hughes
Abstract: In this study, the author reviews the establishment of a cost engineering department (CED) in a national oil and gas exploration and
production company. The company was faced with high cost of project delivery, largely attributed to poor estimating practices and lack of unified
cost database. In a bid to optimize its project cost and derive the right value for funds invested on projects, the company`s management set up a
team to establish and run a cost engineering department (CED).
This article reviews problems identified by the team and the short- and long-term strategies adopted to address the identified problems. An in-
depth analysis of the established cost estimating process (a key aspect of the short-term strategy) is presented, highlighting the difference with
the previous estimating practice and the value derived so far by the organization. A benchmark of the new estimating practice against United
States Government Accountability Office (GAO) guidelines for cost estimation was conducted to reveal areas of possible improvements. This paper
provides fundamental insights to other owner`s company willing to establish similar department in their organization.
(OWN-4392) Equity and Environmental Justice in Early-Stage NNSA Project Planning

TCM Section(s): 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Zachary Matheson National Nuclear Security Administration
Abstract: The NNSA mission, which is to maintain the nation’s nuclear stockpile, prevent nuclear weapon proliferation and reduce the threat of
nuclear and radiological terrorism worldwide, impacts the lives of Americans directly and indirectly. Sometimes this can have devastating
consequences to local communities, such as the legacy of contamination at the Hanford site in Washington state. On the other hand, NNSA’s
unique science and production facilities provide world-class opportunities for educational and career development in historically marginalized
communities, including rural communities, people of color, and other minoritized populations. An equity and environmental justice-informed
approach to planning within the NNSA can minimize the incidence of negative environmental and health outcomes, maximize the number of
opportunities available to historically marginalized groups, and contribute to greater trust of the NNSA mission within minoritized communities.
Several recent executive orders have directed federal agencies to prioritize environmental justice and reduce systemic barriers negatively affecting
minority and underserved groups. As an organization specializing in decision support for early-stage planning, the Office of Programming, Analysis,
and Evaluation has developed a framework for incorporating equity and environmental justice in analyses of alternatives and early-stage planning
studies. This framework will be used to inform decision-makers about potential project impacts from an equity and environmental justice-focused
perspective.
(OWN-4416) (Presentation Only) Triage the Sub-Projects: Calculating and Applying Portfolio Contingency

Stephen Koellner Augur Consulting
Abstract: Risk-adjusted cost estimates are needed to understand the potential range of actual costs through execution. Cost risk analysis produces
uncertainty distributions which can be used to calculate an expected cost as well as contingency, which can be thought of as the difference
between expected cost and a higher confidence level chosen for planning purposes. In a portfolio of projects, allocating uncertainty at the portfolio
level will result in a different risk-adjusted cost than applying the same allocation at the project level, and so it is unclear whether a portfolio
should allocate and manage risk-informed contingency at the portfolio or project level. This topic will examine best practices for calculating and
managing contingency, using EM 5-22 as a tangible example.
(OWN-4425) Capital Assets Recognition and Derecognition Process in Oil and Gas Operating Companies
TCM Section(s): 3.2. Asset Planning
Chad Itagi, PEng CCP CEP PSP Saudi Aramco
Nanda Itagi, CCP Saudi Aramco
Abstract: Capital projects, which make up the major part of the long-term assets on a balance sheet, can be so large for many corporations. Hence,
it is essential to decide, how the list of equipment units and facilities ends up on the balance sheet that is called capitalization – also called
recognition of assets. Some of the assets will be expensed in the operating statement.
So, it is essential to understand how oil and gas operating companies recognize the capital assets, which supply economic benefits over a future
period frame. Capital assets are tangible and intangible assets that meet the company minimum capitalization threshold.
The paper illustrates the transformation of capital asset’s cost from the balance sheet over to the income statement. Since capital assets are long-
lived assets, a portion of the cost over a period will be on income statements as depreciation and amortization expenses.
The paper will illustrate how and why it is desirable for a cost engineer or project accountant to understand the distinction between capitalizing
expenditures and expensing. The choice of whether to expense or capitalize expenditures related to long-lived assets is a complex decision that
depends on various factors, which will be illustrated with impacts on the financial statements including balance sheet, income statement and cash
flow.
(PM-4220) Collaborative Projects: The Ultimate Trust Fall Exercise for Both Vendors and Owners
TCM Section(s): 8.1. Project Control Plan Implementation 11.2. People and Performance Management
Shoshanna Fraizinger, CCP Shoshanna Fraizinger Consulting Inc.
Abstract: As the world works to rebound from pandemic-related issues, including an unreliable supply chain and high inflation rates, one can see
a trend toward more significant consideration of alternatives to the traditional and often adversarial contracting practices one often sees between
owners and vendors on large capital projects. More collaborative agreements and operating models can be found in integrated project delivery
(IPD) or project alliancing. Under such models, key delivery partners must work together during a defined preplanning period to develop the
project scope, schedule, and budget.
Now more than ever, ensuring the validity and accuracy of the estimates that form ones project baselines need to be a top priority for all parties
to ensure the success of these collaborative partnerships. This paper discusses several lessons learned from independent estimate reviews and
provides observations and recommendations that take into consideration these earlier engagements and contracting strategies.
(PM-4224) Lessons Learned - A Culture of Moving Forward

Skill Level: Basic
George S. Bekhit Aecon Group Inc.
David Jurgeneit Aecon Group Inc.
Abstract: Construction projects are very dynamic with experienced teams executing the work. Without capturing the success and learning areas
through lessons learned, even the most experienced teams will repeat failures. 3 steps are crucial to ensure a growing lessons learned culture
inside construction companies, namely – Identification, Managing & Sharing and finally Formalizing & Standardizing. Even with a robust process
in place, there’s no guarantee a strong lessons learned culture will thrive. Systems and tools must be continuously evaluated to ensure they are
working for the team. Socializing construction excellence through strong corporate communications is also vital to building the lessons learned
culture. Finally, strong stakeholder engagement and collaboration with the client are key to a successful lessons learned program and strong
culture surrounding it.
(PM-4251) Program and Project Management Insights Gained From an Analysis of Completed Projects

TCM Section(s): 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Dan Melamed, CCP EVP FAACE United States Department of Energy
Kevin Lee Acuity
Elizabeth B. Barnett Acuity
Bryan A. Skokan, PE Acuity
Rodney Lehman United States Department of Energy
Richard J. Schassburger Acuity
Abstract: Insights on the successful project management approaches for the completed environmental cleanup projects across the United States
of America have been condensed and summarized into an AACE recommended practice for the environmental remediation industries which had
been supported with information from previously completed projects. This paper examines another successfully completed project, the Fernald
Environmental Management Protect, located near Cincinnati, Ohio. This large cleanup project offered a different and broader set of cleanup
challenges that included contaminated soils, buildings, inventories of surplus materials, wastes, and a large, contaminated groundwater plume,
that all needed to be remediated. This paper examines the project’s optimal sequencing/logic, schedules, cost estimating (for both near and far
term work), key performance metrics, and project risk minimization and management. This information provides the reader with specific insights
which contributed to the success of completed environmental cleanup projects and could thus prove useful for the future efforts in this industry
sector.
(PM-4265) Using TCM to Establish a Standard Project Management Methodology for Construction
Projects
TCM Section(s): 2.2. Total Cost Management Process Map 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Rogério F. Cruz CRASA Infraestrutura
Marcelino R. Braga CRASA Infraestrutura
Ricardo P. Sanches CRASA Infraestrutura
Abstract: A methodology is a set of practices, techniques, procedures, and rules used by professionals who work in each field. Within an
organization, these elements come together through its culture, an intrinsic ingredient of each corporation. A standard methodology seeks to
establish a common way of working and prepare a repetition environment to develop. When a company works in such a way as to repeat the
same processes, it is natural that it performs them better and better, becoming faster and more economical. In the context of project
management, an effective standard methodology brings many benefits, such as increasing the chances of project success, expanding the
availability of the team, eliminating unnecessary decisions, and enabling consistent reporting. This paper approaches the elements of the standard
project management methodology that was developed and implemented in a Brazilian contractor from the infrastructure sector, with the Total
Cost Management Framework (TCM) as its primary basis. The work presents: (i) the main challenges and elements involved in loading the route
towards the standard's mindset, (ii) essential aspects considered to support a sustainable methodology development, and (iii) some practical
components of the developed methodology and the benefits obtained from the implementation in a real-life project.
(PM-4283) Managing and Controlling Scope Creep in Construction Contracts: Case Study
Time/Location: /
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 10.3. Change Management 10.1. Project Performance Assessment
Esraa Khaled Abdelraouf Mohammed Hill International
Abstract: Under different standard forms of construction contracts, scope creep, which is the uncontrolled increase in the project’s requirements,
and ultimately, causes an increase in the project’s duration. In this technical article, the author is addressing the mechanism of managing scope
creep under several standards forms of contract, such as The International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC), American Institute of
Architects (AIA), etc... With an emphasis on the FIDIC standard form of contracts, a case study where several scope alternations took place is
illustrated with its results to show the actual methodologies and lessons learned during the construction of a mega and complex project.
Consequently, it can be clearly stated that scope creep cannot be prevented, but it can be controlled and managed with the proper contractual
mechanism.
(PM-4332) WBS-Based Work Processes: The Missing Component in Stage Gate Processes
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Richard P. Helper, PSP RPH Consulting, Ltd.
Abstract: As stage gate management systems become more widely developed and implemented, it may be time to consider whether these systems
will provide significant improvements in project results. The stage gate process is generally described as a project management technique in
which a project is divided into distinct stages, or gates, separated by decision points known as gates. Each gate has objectives, or requirements
which must be met to pass the gate. These requirements are broadly defined, which subjects them to wide interpretation. Stage gate checklists
provide more detailed requirements, but they still do not provide the granularity needed to properly manage and execute complex projects. What
is the missing? Well defined work processes based on WBS accounts that interconnect disciplines and stakeholders and provides qualitatively
defined acceptance criteria for technical and managerial deliverables. These processes can be logically connected to create a roadmap to follow
between stage gates. This roadmap becomes a methodology that proactively supports meeting project objectives. This paper will demonstrate
how to develop and use WBS work processes and why they should be the foundational element of a stage gate process.
(PM-4351) Keep Capital Projects on Track Through Agile Execution and Contracting Strategy
TCM Section(s): 4.1. Project Implementation 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Virgilio T. Monton, II PEng CCP Hatch Ltd.
Abstract: In today's highly competitive global landscape, the success of multi-year capital projects depends on meticulous planning of contracting
execution strategies. Owners who execute under an engineering, procurement, and construction management (EPCM) delivery method often
integrate a contracting strategy that involves the construction contractor taking on a significant share of the risk burden.
However, if challenges arise during project execution and cause delays in the delivery of direct works, what is the best course of action? Clearly it
is essential to adopt a robust change management process. By having project controllers and planners work closely with contract administrators
and the entire project execution team, there is a higher degree of success if better forecasting, trend, and change management are practiced.
Alternatively, the project controls and contract administrators can work collaboratively, and advise the project execution team to recalibrate the
effectiveness of the project delivery method and contracting strategy to align it with the project's critical schedule.
An integrated project delivery (IPD) framework can be selected in the planning phase or can be introduced later to realign a beleaguered project.
This framework promotes collaborative synergy between the owner and EPCM. It involves continuous refinement of predictive models, meticulous
risk evaluation, and a strategic overhaul of the contract model. This paper explores the constructive collaboration between various contracting
strategies and adept forecasting techniques during project execution, leading to a dependable forecast of final cost and schedule.
(PM-4370) Enhancing Affordable Housing Construction Through Lean Practices, Takt Planning, and Offsite
Modular Integration
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 11.5. Value Management and Value Improving Practices (VIPs) 11.1. The Enterprise in Society
Roger Nelson, PE PSP Spire Consulting Group
Hassan A. Dia Spire Consulting Group
Abstract: The surging demand for affordable housing in areas like the San Francisco Bay Area necessitates innovative construction approaches
that enhance efficiency and equity. This paper examines the interplay between lean construction, takt planning, and offsite modular integration
to address affordability challenges and promote equitable housing.
The study examines lean construction's waste reduction and collaborative principles aligned with sustainability in the context of offsite modular
construction. Takt planning, a manufacturing-derived approach, is explored for synchronized construction cycles and to improve labor
productivity.
Additionally, the research investigates offsite modular construction as a transformative solution. The workflow enhances quality control,
minimizes disruptions, improves worksite safety, and provides access to labor outside of the construction labor pool. The convergence of lean,
takt, and offsite modular techniques creates a comprehensive framework enhancing economic viability, quality standards, and streamlined
processes for affordable housing construction.
(PM-4432) Maturity Gain With the Application of PEP in Mining and Steel Projects
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 3.1. Requirements Elicitation and Analysis 3.3. Investment Decision Making
Jéssica Chequer dos Santos Alvarez & Marsal U.S.
Abstract: The warming-up projections with the recovery of the world economy in the post COVID-19 era boost the demand forecasts in the steel
and mining sector. Inserted in this global scenario, the companies in these sectors in Brazil have several sustainability and competitiveness projects
in their portfolio planned for the coming years.
In this context, the capital project market has been evolving at a fast pace, and theories with little applicability have given way to tools and
processes that can be systematically adopted, accelerating the degree of maturity and management of projects.
This paper describes the use of the front-end loading (FEL) methodology in steel and mining projects that involves the development of definitions
for decision-makers to identify and control risks, minimize threats, make investment decisions, and maximize the potential for success. In this
context, the execution of the project execution plan - PEP, is the guide used by the project team intending to deliver the agreed results of the
enterprise. This paper seeks to prove, through Monte Carlo simulation, the gain in project maturity with the elaboration of the PEP and the
consequent reduction of contingency between the approval gates of FEL 2 and FEL 3.
(PS-4230) Schedule Narratives and Reports

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Delbert E. Bearden, PSP Bear3 Consultants LLC
Abstract: Effective communication of project schedules is pivotal to the success of construction and engineering projects. In response to the
increasing complexity of these projects, this paper provides comprehensive guidance tailored to professionals responsible for developing
influential schedule narratives and reports. The paper delves into the purpose and scope, emphasizing the role of effective communication,
collaboration, and understanding among project stakeholders.
The objective is to develop schedule narratives and reports that contribute significantly to project success. Covering critical aspects such as project
milestones, progress updates, risk mitigation strategies, resource allocation, and more, this paper seeks to enhance the quality and effectiveness
of schedule documentation.
By equipping project professionals with the tools and knowledge to create impactful schedule narratives and reports, the paper aims to positively
influence project outcomes, assisting in a timely delivery, adherence to objectives, and overall success in construction and engineering projects.
(PS-4233) How Recommended Practices for Project Scheduling are Becoming Obligations by Project
Contracts
Time/Location: /
TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 8.1. Project Control Plan Implementation
Saeid Khademagha, PEng PSP EllisDon Inc.
Ali Yazdani, PEng EllisDon Inc.
Abstract: In the last few decades, having an accurate and reliable project schedule as a technical tool for planning, managing, and controlling the
time and cost of projects has become increasingly apparent across all industries. Project contracting parties have been trying to structure and
discipline the process and procedure of project scheduling and performance measurement by putting industry-accepted principles and
recommended practices into practice.
Given the obvious benefits of such recommended practices, some project owners, especially in the public sector, are trying to contractually make
them fully or partially enforceable and necessary for contractors to prepare various types of schedules (such as proposal, baseline, progress,
recovery, and revised schedules, as well as schedule delay analysis) by including several pertinent clauses and provisions in their contracts for
various attributes.
In this article, the stipulated contractual requirements for some of the main components of the project Scheduling Procedure and their related
essential actions will be discussed by reviewing different clauses in the contracts of the case study projects.
(PS-4236) Correcting Out-of-Sequence Logic

TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement
Ronald M. Winter, PSP FAACE Schedule Analyzer Software
Abstract: Out-of-sequence logic occurs when actual status is applied to a planned CPM schedule. If the actual start date is earlier than the
calculated early start date, then the actual date overrides logic. Depending on how the CPM calculation handles this occurrence, the remaining
portion of the planned work may be delayed to re-enforce the planned logic. Studies show that approximately 40% of all started activities in
typical construction projects are started out-of-sequence.
Most schedulers say that they ‘fix’ any out-of-sequence activity in schedule updates by modifying the activity or logic. This effort may be
misinformed as many schedulers do not fully appreciate the number of out-of-sequence occurrences in their schedules. For example, P6
Professional software only reports on active, direct out-of-sequence activities. This is a small percentage of the actual out-of-sequence in a
schedule. Besides, they may be fixing the wrong logic as the indirect out-of-sequence (which P6 Professional does not report) may be the correct
activity to fix. This paper looks into the reasons, methods, and pitfalls involved in correcting out-of-sequence logic during updates. Definitive rules
are proposed for various categories of out-of-sequence conditions presented in earlier papers.
(PS-4241) The Top Ten Approaches to Avoiding Resource-Related Claims

TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
Glen R. Palmer, CFCC PSP FAACE GR Palmer Consulting Services, LLC
Christopher W. Carson, CEP DRMP PSP FAACE Arcadis
Abstract: Schedules are developed based on durations and quantities, sequenced as necessary, and durations are estimated based on production
rates and quantities. Production rates are a function of resources, and many projects have failures in meeting project durations based on lack of
or application of appropriate resources as well as claims related to cost overruns also due to resources. Since resources are at the heart of many
failures and disputes winding up in claims, a useful approach to project controls is to identify these claims and develop methods to avoid claims.
This paper is proactive, intended to avoid claims and not prove claims, so it focuses on ways to avoid resource-related claims through good
planning and analysis.
The authors have a long history of claims avoidance and resource analysis, as well as developing resource related claims, so they understand the
issues and recognize the symptoms of resource claims. This paper will provide another paper in the popular “top ten” series that the authors
have written to help project controls practitioners avoid project failures and claims.
(PS-4267) Planning and Scheduling for Workplace Safety

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 11.6. Environment, Health, and Safety Management
Mark David Smith Brasfield & Gorrie
Daniel P. Gilmour, PSP Brasfield & Gorrie
Matthew Smith Brasfield & Gorrie
Abstract: Often considered conflicting obstacles to each other’s success, workplace safety and project scheduling are not the foes they were once
thought to be. This paper will examine how traditional planning and scheduling processes affect workplace safety and how workplace safety
measures may affect planning and scheduling. Authored by seasoned experts from the building construction industry with specialties in both
scheduling and safety, this paper will also outline the correlation between site safety and schedule performance.
(PS-4315) Schedule Development and Progress Measurement Requirements for Fixed-Price Construction
Contracts
Time/Location: /
Ricardo Albeny, CCP EVP NOVA Chemicals
Abstract: Many bidders complain about rigid and detailed requirements for schedule development and progress measurement included in the
owner’s bid documentation for a fixed-price contract. These requirements are typically laid out in the request for proposal (RFP) package, covering
the full gambit of expectations ranging from safety, quality and, of course, project controls.
The nature of these challenges typically stems from certain team members having a misconception about the level of detail that can or even
should be asked of bidders in such a contractual arrangement. This viewpoint can often be characterized with phrases such as: “we don’t typically
ask for that” or, “that seems too detailed for a lump-sum job”. This paper is going to reinforce the importance of ensuring such requirements are
included in the bid documentation, while providing an additional purpose for these deliverables (schedule and progress measurement system) on
fixed-price contracts, which relates to planning/assessing the payment amounts throughout the execution of the contract.
(PS-4342) A Statistical Approach to Developing Empirical System Durations for Wastewater Treatment
Plants
Shreyas Raghavendra Arcadis U.S., Inc.
Christopher W. Carson, CEP DRMP PSP FAACE Arcadis U.S., Inc.
Abstract: Schedule overruns are a major challenge in the construction and rehabilitation of wastewater treatment plants (WTPs). This can often
lead to cost overruns, loss of productivity, construction quality problems, large punch lists, disputes, and claims.
This paper aims to develop empirical system durations for WTPs through the compilation of real-world WTP related as-planned and as-built
schedule data and carry out regression analysis to model the relationship between the factors that affect the system durations (such as the size
of the plant, the type of treatment process, and the age of the plant) and the system duration itself. This model can then be used to predict system
duration based on the identified factors.
The results of the study can be used to improve the accuracy and reliability of WTP schedules by pre-emptively informing planners and schedulers
about the numerous factors affecting WTP construction and providing them with empirical system durations which can be used as a reference
point. This will help to set realistic stakeholder expectations, reduce the risk of schedule and cost overruns.
(PS-4354) An Efficient Approach to Scheduling Repetitive Projects

Skill Level: Basic
Christopher W. Carson, CEP DRMP PSP FAACE ARCADIS, U.S., Inc.
Abstract: Many projects consist of strings of activities that are repeated multiple times to generate the full schedule, a good example being a
multi-story building. The foundation is subdivided into similar sections, comprised of excavation, layout, pile driving, pile cutoffs, pile caps, grade
beams, and backfill. A common approach is to develop the first section and duplicate it, changing the horizontal label, or elevated floors in a
vertical environment. This is quick and provides good quality control if done correctly.
The risk to this effort is that the schedule development session is used to establish the standard fragnet in the first section and the sequencing
between sections, then duplicated and validated by the construction management team, however, when the full schedule is reviewed, it
commonly is not acceptable. This can be because the team has a gut feeling about the overall duration of the entire foundation or the full multi-
story facility.
The author worked out an approach that improves this method and minimizes the rework necessary when the final product is not acceptable
because that rework might be only 15 changes on the first elevated floor but 300 changes for a twenty-story highrise. It can be faster to delete
all the duplicated floors, make the changes on the single floor and duplicate it again. This paper will demonstrate the process to enable a
standardized approach for an efficient schedule development process which the author calls an “outline schedule development.”
(PS-4358) An Overview of Hydropower Projects in Canada Part 2 (Spillway)

TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 7.1. Project Scope and Execution Strategy Development
Ali Montaser, PEng CCP EVP PSP Comtech
Ahmed Montaser, EVP Aecon
Abstract: Canada is the world's fourth largest generator of electrical hydropower with facilities that have been around for more than one hundred
years. Hydropower projects are inherently complex and building them in Canada has an additional layer of challenges due to typically being in
remote locations, and having to face severe weather conditions that could reach as low as –50 C degrees. This paper is the second of a series that
will provide an in-depth review of specific considerations related to hydropower projects in Canada. The first paper, “An Overview of Hydropower
Construction Projects in Canada and Lessons Learned” was published at the 2023 AACE Conference & Expo 2023 (PM-4071).[26] This paper will
focus on spillway construction, planning, and scheduling. It will also describe the author’s lessons learned based on their experiences related to
such projects. The paper will do a deep dive into the execution strategy of the spillway complex. Then it will present the design of a schedule
intelligent calendar that automatically changes the activity’s duration according to the season in which the activity is occurring. Lastly, it presents
tried-and-true coding and sequencing methods for different concrete placement activities.
(PS-4360) (Panel Discussion) 100 Years of Federal Project Scheduling Insights and Lessons Learned

Michael R. Nosbisch, CCP PSP FAACE Strategic Management Solutions LLC
Diane Bragoni, PSP CPM Schedule Solutions LLC
Patricia Bolton, PE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
S. Brian Kong, PE CCP U.S. Department of Energy
Dr. David T. Hulett, FAACE U.S. GAO
Abstract: This will be an interactive conversation with seasoned industry and government experts who bring more than ten decades of scheduling
experience for complex federal projects/programs spanning from aerospace and defense to construction.
This discussion will dive into key scheduling challenges, offering firsthand insights and actionable recommendations for professionals involved in
federal projects and programs. Topics will include schedule resource and cost loading, level of detail, impacts and delays, reserve and
contingencies, risk analysis, and more.
Join this discussion to:

- Directly engage with top professionals.
- Actively participate, ask questions, and get immediate answers.
- Elevate your understanding with real-world lessons and guidance.
(PS-4377) Addressing Schedule Complexity and Optimizing Scheduling Process for Infrastructure Projects

Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 10.1. Project Performance Assessment
David A. Chigne, CCP CEP PSP Alpha 3 Consulting
Shrutika Barwal, PSP Alpha 3 Consulting
Abstract: Effective project scheduling is essential for the successful execution of any project. It serves as a fundamental tool to ensure that projects
are completed within their designated timelines, and budget constraints, and with minimal disruptions. However, current requirements in the
construction industry present a landscape of scheduling challenges. Various aspects, such as multiple calendars, constraints, lags, resource
allocation, and even budget considerations, introduce complexity that can render schedules highly sensitive to changes. Even minor modifications
can trigger cascading effects, significantly impacting project timelines, and making schedules difficult to interpret.
This paper closely examines the process of integrating contractual requirements into project schedules with the help of a case study on an
infrastructure project to illustrate how this alignment introduces complex scheduling challenges, influencing the critical path, near-critical paths,
and/or driving paths for special milestones on different stages of the project.
The goal is to develop a comprehensive understanding of how these complexities underscore the necessity for project schedulers and stakeholders
to collaborate effectively, creating schedules that faithfully represent project complexity while fully harnessing the capabilities of the scheduling
software.
(PS-4387) Mastering Risk Factors for Renewable Energy Projects So You Don’t Get Burnt, Blown Away, or
Washed Out
TCM Section(s): 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development 10.3. Change Management
Matthew D. Baker Watt, Tieder, Hoffar & Fitzgerald, LLP
Christopher J. Brasco Watt, Tieder, Hoffar & Fitzgerald, LLP
Dakus Gunn Delta Consulting Group
James F. Timko Watt, Tieder, Hoffar & Fitzgerald, LLP
Abstract: Renewable energy projects pose unique scheduling challenges affecting project planning, delivery, and claims resolution. Solar, wind,
and hydroelectric projects each involve distinctive supply, sequencing, environmental, means and methods, and risk shifting considerations. These
performance exposures must be considered when initially scheduling and then evaluating delays on renewable energy projects. This paper
addresses relevant considerations impacting the scheduling of renewable energy projects, provides input on how these considerations practically
affect the development of the project schedule, and outlines strategies for mitigating associated risks. As the green energy transition accelerates,
renewable energy projects are expected to constitute a growing percentage of the construction pipeline. Appreciating the unique scheduling
challenges posed by such projects will help ensure that “you don’t get burnt, blown away, or washed out” on a renewable energy project.
(PS-4415) (Presentation Only) Schedule Analysis Best Practices for Capital Projects

Dave Ingalls, EVP Augur Consulting
Abstract: Capital Infrastructure projects are often impacted by challenges in executing schedules per the plan, leading to unforeseen and costly
delays to delivery milestones. In many cases, these delays are driven by the complexity of large, dynamic acquisition efforts. However, in some
cases delays are simply caused by a failure to follow project planning best practices in the schedule development phase. This presentation aims
to cover both the content of Integrated Master Scheduling (IMS) best practices as well as the impact “for better and for worse“ inherent in the
rigor of that approach. Topics addressed will include approaches for the effective creation and baselining of a project IMS, in addition to best
practices for schedule management and schedule analysis in the execution phase. Key metrics for both elements will be covered in order to
provide a quantitative anchor of this discussion.
(RISK-4240) Case Study: Use of the Hybrid Parametric and Expected Value QRA Method on the Keeyask
Hydropower Megaproject

TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management 3.3. Investment Decision Making
John K. Hollmann, PE CCP CEP DRMP FAACE Hon. Life Validation Estimating LLC
Raminder S. Bali, PEng Manitoba Hydro
Abstract: Keeyask is a new 695-megawatt hydroelectric generating station on the Nelson River in Canada’s Manitoba province developed as a
collaborative effort between Manitoba Hydro (MH) and four First Nations – Tataskweyak Cree Nation and War Lake First Nation (operating as the
Cree Nation Partners), York Factory First Nation, and Fox Lake Cree Nation – working together as the Keeyask Hydropower Limited Partnership
(KHLP). MH managed the construction and operates Keeyask, which has been fully online since 2022. The primary Keeyask project scope included
earth-filled dams and earthen dikes, a powerhouse with seven turbine units, and a seven-bay spillway. In the early stages of Keeyask’s stage-gate
process, quantitative risk analysis (QRA) was performed using range estimation. In 2013, prior to the start of construction, Keeyask switched to
using cost and schedule QRA applying the hybrid parametric and expected value (P+EV) method along with analyses of specific management
reserves and a tipping point (non-linearity) assessment (AACE Recommended Practice 113R-20 covers the P+EV method). This case study reviews
the use of the P+EV method on a megaproject during execution.
P+EV has advantages for early stages; however, Keeyask applied it during construction. Identified, but under-appreciated, systemic fragility
challenges led to non-linear behavior; total cost increased from $6.5 to $8.2 billion Canadian dollars and the first unit in-service milestone slipped
15 months from November 2019 to February 2021. This is not a story of flawless prediction, but is a practical lesson learned guide on applying
P+EV on a project in which the nature of the risk and analysis teeters on the brink of statistical disorder. Learnings and recommendations are
provided.
(RISK-4247) Defining a Lognormal Distribution Using 3-Point Entry: The J-QPD Distribution
TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management 3.3. Investment Decision Making
John K. Hollmann, PE CCP CEP DRMP FAACE Hon. Life Validation Estimating LLC
J. Eric Bickel University of Texas at Austin
Abstract: Practical quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for project contingency determination often rely
on 3-point distributions. In a typical project QRA workshop, 3-points (e.g., low, most likely, high) have proven to be the extent of the cost and
schedule risk impact range input that most analysts can expect to obtain from project teams. In AACE RP 66R-11, there are only two practical
probability distribution functions (PDFs) defined by 3-points: Triangular and PERT. Neither is an ideal representation of naturally occurring cost
growth and schedule slip data distributions. Industry research suggests that the Lognormal distribution is a more realistic fit for large projects
based on actual project cost and schedule variability. Risk analysts, attempting to be realistic, often resort to PDF variation (e.g., trigen) and/or
attempt to push teams toward the analyst’s opinion of acceptable 3-point input. This manipulation can raise stakeholder suspicions about the
reliability of MCS, and rightfully so.
What is needed is a lognormally shaped PDF that can be defined with 3-point input. Recently, researchers at the University of Texas developed a
distribution system called the Johnson quantile-parameterized distribution (J-QPD) that is able to match the shapes of common distributions,
including lognormal with 3-point input. This paper will review the typical QRA PDF use context, describe the J-QPD distribution and its use criteria,
and provide practical examples of its application in an MCS-based QRA method. The authors will propose an RP 66R-11 update and encourage
MCS software vendors to include the J-QPD as a distribution choice in their products.
(RISK-4307) Treading Cautiously: Risk Management in the Leapfrogging of Offshore Wind Turbine
Technologies
TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management
John Coker Delta Consulting Group
Emily J. Byrd Delta Consulting Group
Abstract: As the global commitment to sustainable energy and green tech intensifies, offshore wind technology is experiencing significant
advancements. These developments, characterized by larger blades and turbines, promise heightened efficiency but also introduce a range of
challenges in transportation and installation. This paper delves into the complexities of these advancements, identifying and analyzing the risks
they pose—from logistical and regulatory hurdles to financial repercussions. It presents a comprehensive risk management framework, informed
by expert insights, designed to address these challenges effectively. The framework provides stakeholders with a structured approach to managing
risks associated with the deployment of advanced transport methodologies in the offshore wind turbine sector. By emphasizing proactive risk
management, the paper aims to equip stakeholders with the necessary tools to navigate this rapidly evolving landscape, thereby contributing to
the sustainable growth of the offshore wind industry. This work stands as an essential guide for industry professionals, highlighting the critical
role of strategic risk management in adapting to and capitalizing on technological innovations.
(RISK-4330) Navigating Risk Management Challenges in Progressive Environments: Case of Progressive

Design Build Contract Delivery Models

Roozbeh Panahi Jacobs Solutions Inc.
Katia Rizkallah Jacobs Solutions Inc.
Kyle Mawhinney Metrolinx
Sara Martino Metrolinx
Abstract: Progressive contract delivery models have gained prominence in mega-construction projects, particularly in Canada, owing to distinct
advantages such as increased market engagement, refined project definition, early risk mitigation, and project acceleration. A robust risk
management practice can play a crucial role in the success of these models. The convergence of all relevant parties at a single platform during the
iterative progression of project details during the development/design phase offers valuable insights into necessary changes concerning various
risks and corresponding risk management strategies, contributing to the overall success of the project along with a well-defined schedule and cost
estimate for the implementation/construction phase. Nevertheless, risk management may face challenges during the development/design phase
that can minimize the benefits of progressive models. These challenges can emerge as a result of inadequate information, a dynamic and rapid-
paced environment, diverse risk cultures, and limited expertise, among other factors. This article's primary objective is to examine risk
management challenges in the context of the Progressive Design Build (PDB) model, a variant of progressive contract delivery during the
development phase. In doing so, the article benefited from in-depth analysis of the risk management steps, direct contribution of the team and
unstructured interviews with project controls and technical teams involved in relevant projects.
(RISK-4345) (Presentation Only) Review of Risk/Reward Sharing Mechanisms in Collaborative-Based

Projects

TCM Section(s): 7.7. Procurement Planning 7.6. Risk Management
Dr. Moe Roghabadi Hatch
Camelia Bucur Hatch
Dr. Farzaneh Golkhoo Hatch
Sohiel M. Hassan Hatch
Abstract: Collaborative Contracting Models have been receiving worldwide attention, especially in the UK and Australia, with increasingly more
countries exploring its use. It is a relatively new delivery strategy in Canada where owner and all non-owner participants (NOPs) work together
with integrity and making best-for-project mindset decisions. Risk/reward sharing is an important concept to provide incentive for project
participants to enhance the project performance and achieve a win-win scenario for all those involved. There are multiple approaches from the
literature that explored how the risk/reward sharing ratio can be optimized to incentivize parties’ risk solving efforts. As such, this paper
summarizes previous work relating to this topic and compares 2 specific approaches in more detail to serve as a guide and to initiate further future
discussion on improved methodology for risk/reward sharing ratio optimization. Key aspects influencing the risk/reward sharing mechanism are
defined and serve as the foundation for the comparison. These principal aspects include participants’ risk attitudes, cooperative behavior and the
stochastic nature of risks, customized risk perception based on risk criteria, and optimization strategies. A numerical case example adapted from
the literature is also used to present the relevant methodology and outputs.
(RISK-4356) Enhancing Decision-Making Process through Probabilistic Schedule Analysis Across the
Project Lifecycle
Skill Level: Basic
TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management 11.5. Value Management and Value Improving Practices (VIPs)
Abbas Shakourifar, PSP Chevron
Dr. David T. Hulett, FAACE Projectrisk
Keith D. Hornbacher Hornbacher Associates
Steve Uhl McwayUhl
Abstract: This paper advocates for a re-imagining of how logic networked schedule risk analysis (SRA) can add value to projects. In the authors’
view, SRA should be considered a critical decision-support tool, leveraged to help projects add value by informing executives about risk/rewards
trade-offs on many decisions, small and large, throughout the project life cycle.
This approach contrasts with what one frequently observes in practice: SRA used primarily as a highly detailed quantification and assurance tool
at the time of final investment decision (FID), to get projects approved and perhaps highlight some risk treatment priorities. These applications
are valuable, but they underutilize the potential of SRA for mid-phase incremental decision making while scope and plans are developed, and
value is optimized.
This paper offers actionable insights as to how to apply SRA to support incremental decisions. It properly views SRA as supporting asset and project
optimization, value and change management: foundational elements of Cost Engineering and Total Cost Management (TCM). A case example is
presented, illustrating how one company used SRA to help navigate critical non-FID scope development and planning decisions during Class 4, 3,
2 and execution phase. Highlighted are the many types of decisions that may benefit from the approach, as well as practical tips to use SRA in a
more fit-for-purpose manner. In summary, SRA emerges as a dynamic and frequently applied decision-support tool that can add value in new
ways during multiple phases in the project life cycle.
(RISK-4367) Challenges Aggregating Multiple, Interdependent Projects into an Integrated Program-

Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis

TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management 7.2. Schedule Planning and Development
Dr. David T. Hulett, FAACE Hulett & Associates, LLC
Ian Bailey T4 Consultants LLC
Lorrie B. Tietze Interface Consulting, LLC
Abstract: Some complex programs are structured so that many separately managed projects must interact with each other to produce the final
integrated deliverable. Constituent projects typically have large and detailed schedules and are often assigned to various entities under the same
umbrella organization, company or government agency. The constituent projects are specialized entities, focusing on design, fabrication of various
components, integration and/or production of multiple units for the ultimate customer. Each entity has their own deliverables that are used by
another entity for their work, making downstream work dependent upon someone else’s upstream work, and so on. Each individual entities’
efforts are integrated in a development program to deliver the first production unit (FPU) of the final system to the customer (e.g., a major
program milestone). The following steps describe the sequences and challenges faced by complex programs:
• Each entity’s project, within the integrated program has its own level of uncertainty and set of entity-level risk events. Due to the
interdependencies between projects, a delay experienced by one entity, the “giver” of a deliverable (e.g., design, test results, OK to proceed, etc.),
is transmitted to another entity, the “receiver” of that deliverable, the delay rippling through the rest of the entire program’s integrated schedule.
• There are risk events that affect only one of the entities and other risk events that affect several of the entities at once. The cumulative
effect of a risk event impacting multiple entities could be much larger to the overall program success than the impact of any single-entity risks.
• A quantitative risk analysis, for a giver entity, can forecast a probabilistic delay, to the receiver entity, for the needed deliverable at a
higher confidence level. If the receiver is informed about the delay in a timely manner, it can be included in the receiver’s risk-informed plans.
• It is not sufficient to just push the new commitment date changes from one entity to another for each giver-receiver combination. The
work and schedule are not strictly sequential, having many parallel paths and feedback loops. A design will mature into a finished project
eventually, but there are instances of the receiver entity returning the product (e.g., design, component, sub-assembly) to the giver for further
re-work before it resumes its way toward the final integrated product. The quantitative analysis update process must be coordinated so that all
the hand-offs (i.e., deliveries and receipts) are shared at the same time. The simultaneous sharing enables viewing of the knock-on or ripple effect
when a delivery slips early in the schedule causing multiple delays later in the schedule.
• Once the coordinated hand-off commitment dates are updated, the receiver entities need to incorporate the giver’s delays in their own
planning. The knock-on effects of the giver’s delay on the receivers’ plans need to be represented so the receivers’ output (e.g., maybe to other
receivers such as the fabricating entities) will correctly reflect the complete set of compounded delays. This integration appropriately represents
the work of, and interconnections between the entities, and is used to conduct a program-level quantitative risk analysis.
After trying several approaches NNSA’s current strategy develops a representative program schedule that includes the top-level projects’
deliverables, and giver/receiver hand-offs between entities. The key challenges with this strategy are maintaining the representative integrated
program schedule, ensuring sufficient input data quality and consistent representation of the entities’ individual schedules and cross-entity
dependencies.
Once the integrated program schedule is created, the potential consequence of risks and uncertainties to the program final delivery to the
customer can be determined. Additionally, program level risks can be analyzed at a program level vs. having individual entities analyzing only
their piece of the overall impact. Risks can be identified, determined if they are entity risks vs. program risks, evaluated, and understood
appropriately so that plans for mitigation can be completed as early as possible. With early risk evaluation, other options can be considered and
evaluated, including early planning/structural program changes, scope reduction, putting low-priority scope toward the punch list or carefully
putting non-dependent activities in parallel rather than in series (and effective backup plans) at the start of a major program.
The integrated program schedule, informed by the individual entity quantitative risk analysis results, then becomes the basis for analyzing and
optimizing the program. The focus must be on optimizing the program vs. optimizing any individual entity’s project. Since the risks that impact
one entity are accounted for in their individual risk analysis, the program risk analysis prioritizes the risks that affect one entity, multiple entities,
or the entire program. Program risk mitigations can then address the risks that are the biggest threat to the final program’s success in delivering
the final product to the customer.
This paper uses a small representative model of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) modernization program to explore the issues
above and address the following risk analysis activities:
• Building individual program entities’ schedule so they can be integrated.

• Linking the output of the sender entities to the inputs of the receiver entities.
• Evaluate integrated program schedules and quantitative results using alternative risk evaluation strategies.
• Risk impact prioritization for focused, cost-effective mitigation across all entities to optimize the spend for mitigation and the overall
program.
(RISK-4401) Assessing Proposed Risk Mitigation Actions Using Mitigation Scoring

TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management 8.1. Project Control Plan Implementation
Waylon T. Whitehead sCurve Solutions
Dr. David T. Hulett, FAACE Hulett & Associates
Abstract: Much has been written about best practice project risk analysis. But what happens after the risk analysis concludes that the pre-mitigated
project is not going to be successful? Often, the risk analyst is asked to improve the project’s funding prospects by assessing the project using
post-mitigated risks. Strategic and tactical improvements in risk management are necessary to improve mitigation outcomes.
Risks can be prioritized as an output of the quantitative risk analysis. Then, risk mitigation workshops can be held to see if the high-priority risks
can be mitigated effectively and economically by adopting new mitigation actions focused on the specific risks. But do the mitigations developed
truly have a chance of changing the project’s prospects?
To be meaningful, a risk mitigation action must be new, not a continuation of a previous or normal practice. “Continuing to hold weekly meetings
with subcontractors” does not qualify. Mitigations for the high-priority risks should be precise and tactical, with an assessment of required support
such as funding or hiring. It should cover what will change and specifically how the change will be implemented.
Alignment should be reached on the mitigations between all main stakeholders - owner, contractors, subcontractors, commissioning agents, and
regulators. This paper presents a 6-level scale and associated concepts that can be used to evaluate the quality and potential effectiveness of
proposed mitigations. The focus is on relevance to the risks, practicality of the action within the context of the project, clarity of definition of
actions, and stakeholder commitment to the resulting plan.
The Whitehead-Hulett Mitigation Assessment Score (MAS)TM is introduced and its use is described with actual project examples. To warrant any
potential credit (represented as a lower probability of occurring, less impact if it were to occur, or both) given in post-mitigated quantitative
modeling, the mitigation should have a MAS of 3 or higher, with 4 or 5 being preferred. Achieving those MAS values indicates that the mitigations
are thought through well enough to be taken seriously. The MAS scale also directs project teams on how to improve their mitigation strategies.
This paper introduces and describes:
1. Importance of risk description metalanguage to developing effective risk mitigations.
2. Importance of mitigation element maturity to create real reductions in risk profile of the project.
3. Proposed 6-level scale to assess risk mitigation maturity.
4. Recommendation to avoid using full set of post-mitigation analysis estimates to set contingency values.
5. Recommendation to use alternate approach to assessing post-mitigation only after MAS of threshold value or higher is achieved, with
analysis being iterated as solutions are developed.
6. Reasoning for using alternate approach to accepting post-mitigation estimates only after sufficient maturity is reached.
(RISK-4435) Practical Implementation of AI-Based Risk Analysis on Construction Megaprojects

Rhys Phillips nPlan
Dev Amratia nPlan
Carlos Ledezma nPlan
Richard Bendall-Jones nPlan
Vahan Hovhannisyan nPlan
Leonie Anna Mueck nPlan
Abstract: Recently, AI-schedule risk analysis (AI-SRA) has emerged as a groundbreaking approach to construction project risk management. [1,2]
Unlike traditional quantitative schedule risk analysis (QSRA),[3] AI-SRA leverages machine learning models, trained on extensive historical schedule
data, to directly predict activity durations distributions based on data embedded in the schedule. As previously shown, AI-SRA surpasses traditional
QSRA in both the accuracy of end-date forecasts and activity duration predictions. [4,5] Despite its proven effectiveness, practical implementations
of AI-SRA within project organizations have so far been scarce and the practicalities of rolling out this new process are unstudied.
Here, a comprehensive study of how to implement AI-SRA successfully on megaprojects is presented. AI-SRA roll-out on five projects across
different sizes and sectors shows that, generally, three challenges need to be overcome: Lack of trust in AI models; the unintuitive nature of AI-
SRA results; and AI-SRA differing from tried and tested processes. These challenges can be overcome by clear steps towards understanding AI,
visualizations to aid comprehension of the results, and demonstrations of equivalence of AI-SRA to traditional processes. As a case study, the
specific application of these principles on a major UK rail project using AI-SRA is discussed.
(-TBD-) -TBD-
Time/Location: /
-TBD-
(TCM-4238) (Presentation Only) The Six Elements of Project Controls

Abstract: Numerous articles have been written about why projects fail! While there may be disagreement as to the root cause, one common
contributor to failure is due to the lack of attention and efforts being applied to the project controls surveillance envelop within a project. This
presentation tries to articulate the business value and technical contributions that proper project controls can provide if instituted properly.
With this said, the objective of this presentation is to provide a fundamental understanding of the Six Elements of Projects and the requirements
to apply these in the project environment. These include:
- Quality and the impact that errors have on impeding project success.
- Maturity and the necessary focus required on the tasks that each element requires.
- Competency that ensures sufficient knowledge or skill.
- The value of project controls (VOPC) that enhances the delivery of projects that appraise quality, maturity, and competency.
Project controls is simple but yet complex. There are many moving parts and interdependencies. However, once one understands the relationships
and the inputs and outputs of project controls, its complexity diminishes. While technology is constantly advancing, the basics and fundamentals
of project controls will always remain the same. How we manage this exercise will determine how successful we will be. The six elements of
project controls, complemented with the prescribed approaches, provide an objective approach while introducing value to the organization.
(TCM-4314) Desalination Public-Private Partnership: Assessment of Plants Operation Costs

TCM Section(s): 3.3. Investment Decision Making 3.1. Requirements Elicitation and Analysis
Mayar M. Khairy The American University in Cairo
Mohamed Abdel Raouf The American University in Cairo
A. Samer Ezeldin The American University in Cairo
Abstract: With Egypt's current economic crisis and rising inflation, there is an urge to cut costs to avoid cost overruns in public-private partnership
(PPP) reverse osmosis (RO) desalination projects. Over fifty percent of these costs comprise operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, which are
heavily influenced by a variety of factors. It is crucial to identify those factors and rank them based on their weighted impact on overall O&M
expenditures. The paper starts by exploring the key factors that determine O&M costs using a literature review of published research papers,
reports, and case studies related to desalination plants and their costs, as well as surveys and interviews with industry professionals. Furthermore,
it employs the relative importance index (RII) as an analytical technique to determine the weighted rank of each item and their contribution to
overall O&M expenses. Plant characteristics, architecture design, intake, deployed systems, management and financial elements, and
governmental charges are among the primary factors that determine O&M costs. Finally, it is revealed that the factors that may have the highest
impact on O&M costs can be summarized, but not limited to, as follows: water quality parameters, membrane replacement rate, design
considerations, lack of trained maintenance personnel, and energy consumption.

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If you are interested in federal and/or mega-projects, look for sessions marked with

Program subject to change. Rev. 2024-06-12

(CDR-4214) Integrated Construction Project Subnetworks: Development, Monitoring, and Analysis

(CDR-4217) Construction Equipment Disruption Modeling in Claims

(CDR-4221) On the Intricacies of Evaluating Delay Damages

(CDR-4226) Forensic Evaluation of Subcontractor Components in CPM Schedules

(CDR-4239) Tales from the Construction Claims Crypt - Lessons Learned

(CDR-4256) (Presentation Only) Recommended Practice 130R-23 - Demonstrating Entitlement to

(CDR-4274) Practical Considerations for Substantiating Disruption Claims

(CDR-4277) Pacing Delays - Application and Considerations

(CDR-4284) Shortcomings in the Dispute Resolution Procedure under AIA232-2019 Contract

(CDR-4287) Expert Terms of Reference in Arbitration: Guidelines and Applications

Time/Location: MON 10:15-11:15 / Dream Ballroom 2 (1st Floor)

(CDR-4359) Schedule Delay Analysis: The Intermediary Method

(CDR-4398) Time Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future

(CDR-4414) Overcoming Noisy Data in Measured Mile Productivity Analysis

Time/Location: TUE 2:00-3:00 / Dream Ballroom 2 (1st Floor)

Time/Location: SUN 4:15-5:15 / Peace 3-4 (1st Floor)

(COM-4434) (Presentation Only) Section Leadership Meeting

(COM-4436) (Presentation Only) Asset Planning and Management Subcommittee Meeting

(COM-4437) (Presentation Only) Claims & Dispute Resolution Subcommittee Meeting

(COM-4438) (Presentation Only) Cost Estimating Subcommittee Meeting

(COM-4440) (Presentation Only) Decision & Risk Management Subcommittee Meeting

(COM-4441) (Presentation Only) Planning & Scheduling Subcommittee Meeting

(COM-4443) (Presentation Only) Program & Project Management Subcommittee Meeting

(DEV-4322) (Presentation Only) Introduction to AACE

Time/Location: TUE 2:00-3:00 / Peace 3-4 (1st Floor)

(DSAA-4300) Supercharging Asset Longevity with IoT Sensors and AI

(DSAA-4395) Industrial Goods Cost Estimating Using Machine Learning Techniques

(DSAA-4406) Optimization Techniques and Metaheuristics in Project Scheduling: Using Real-World

(EST-4203) Independent Cost Estimate’s Value on Construction Manager/General Contractor

Time/Location: MON 2:00-3:00 / Magnificent 2 (3rd Floor)

(EST-4232) A Technical Approach to Classify Decommissioning Cost Estimates

(EST-4304) Evolution of Cost Estimating from the 1950s to Today

(EST-4349) Estimating Productivity Adjustments

(EST-4352) Successful Implementation of Continuous Estimating for Target Costing in Collaborative

Time/Location: SUN 1:15-2:15 / Magnificent 2 (3rd Floor)

(EST-4363) Cost Estimate Challenges for FPSO Decommissioning

(EST-4402) Indirect Costs Estimating Based on Statistical Analysis

Time/Location: MON 3:45-4:45 / Magnificent 2 (3rd Floor)

(EST-4430) Navigating Effective Capital Cost Estimate Review and Assurance

(EVM-4197) The Value of Earned Value

(EVM-4215) Is Cost Performance Index Predictive of Project Performance?

(EVM-4408) Basics of Earned Value Management - How & Why

(EVM-4419) (Presentation Only) EVM Reviews – Surveillance Reviews vs. IBRs

Time/Location: TUE 2:00-3:00 / Magnificent 2 (3rd Floor)

(EVM-4420) Performance Baseline-Contract (PB-K) Based Independent Estimate-at-Completion (iEAC)

Time/Location: TUE 3:45-4:45 / Magnificent 2 (3rd Floor)

Key discussion points:

- Instill confidence in decision-makers

(IND-4447) (Presentation Only by SmartPM Technologies)

With Cleopatra Enterprise, Project managers can:

(IND-4449) (Presentation Only by Safran Software Solutions) Practical Application of RP 57R-09

(IND-4451) (Presentation Only by Planisware)

(IND-4454) (Presentation Only) - Industry Showcase - TBD

(IND-4455) (Presentation Only) - Industry Showcase - TBD

(IT-4291) Robotic Process Automation (RPA) for Cost Estimating

(OWN-4253) Applying Lessons Learned From Past Schedules

(OWN-4268) Effectively Leveraging Schedule Reserve