Timeseries Forecasting of Web Traffic Using Prophet Machine Learning Model
Timeseries Forecasting of Web Traffic Using Prophet Machine Learning Model
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All content following this page was uploaded by Hariprasath Gnanasekaran on 17 December 2023.
1
Department of Computer Science and Technology, Arden University, Middlemarch Park, United Kingdom.
2,3
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Ramapuram,
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
4
Department of Computer Engineering, Suleyman Demirel University, Karasai, Turkey.
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
Abstract: Forecasting web traffic is critical for website owners, marketers, and organizations to make educated decisions, plan
for future development, properly manage resources, and optimize their online presence. Handling online traffic was a simpler
and less complicated procedure in the early days of the internet and web development compared to today's standards. The
internet was still in its early stages, and websites were simpler. In recent years, handling online traffic with machine learning
(ML) time series models have gotten more complex. Machine learning algorithms may give accurate projections and useful
insights into online traffic trends. Using Facebook Prophet, a popular forecasting toolkit, this model explains the time series
forecasting process and performance evaluation for online traffic data. Prophet's ability to handle complicated time series data
with many seasonal components and holidays has won its appeal. Moving Average (MA) models were used for forecasting in
time, but there are certain limits and drawbacks to using time series data to capture and forecast underlying trends. MA is
specifically designed for short-term forecasting, capturing short-term dependencies and random fluctuations. However, the
Prophet model is designed to handle time series data with various seasonal patterns, such as daily, weekly, and annual
seasonality. We provide a detailed Explanation of the Prophet Time series model and Evaluation for web traffic data using
Facebook Prophet, focusing on understanding model performance and visualization.
Keywords: Moving Average; Prophet of Forecasting; Time Series; Web Traffic; Seasonality of Facebook; Online Traffic
Trends; forecasting toolkit; Handling Online Traffic.
Received on: 12/02/2023, Revised on: 27/04/2023, Accepted on: 01/08/2023, Published on: 29/11/2023
Cited by: R. Bin Sulaiman, G. Hariprasath, P. Dhinakaran, and U. Kose, “Time-series Forecasting of Web Traffic Using
Prophet Machine Learning Model,” FMDB Transactions on Sustainable Computer Letters., vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 161 –177, 2023.
Copyright © 2023 R. Bin Sulaiman et al., licensed to Fernando Martins De Bulhão (FMDB) Publishing Company. This is an
open access article distributed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, which allows unlimited use, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium with proper attribution.
1. Introduction
In today’s world, each individual has access to the internet. Everyone can access information through websites, web
applications, and other online services. As the number of users increases daily, web traffic is one factor responsible for the
success of the internet [13]. People who work for web service providers must know how much traffic a web server receives. If
they do not notice the web traffic on the web server, then it may make the people or customers wait longer to access the
information and leave the webpage [14]. Web traffic has become essential in today’s digital world. Since the World Wide Web
was founded, it has transformed the digital ecosystem that powers businesses, transfers information worldwide, and connects
people across the globe. As the digital world evolves every day, the ability to understand web traffic has become a crucial part
of it [15]. Accurate web traffic forecasting is not easy and needs practicality. Accurate web traffic forecasting help business
organization plan their marketing strategies [16].
*
Corresponding author.
The type of traffic from search engines like Google, Bing, or Yahoo is organic traffic. This type of traffic mostly occurs when
users find a website by entering relevant keywords in a search and then clicking on either of the search results. Direct traffic is
another type of traffic that occurs when a user provides the website URL directly to the browser or when the particular website
is bookmarked [18]. This type of traffic represents people already familiar with the website and using it without a search engine.
Social traffic is a type of traffic that occurs from social media platforms such as Instagram, LinkedIn, and Snapchat. This type
of traffic occurs when we visit a link that has been shared through social media platforms or visit the website through social
media profiles, and it is considered social traffic [19]. Email traffic is a type of traffic that occurs when the links within an email
are sent to subscribers or users. This includes promotional or transactional emails that contain a link to their website. Mobile
traffic is traffic caused when users access websites using mobile phones or tablets [20].
Of all the traffic, as mentioned earlier, social and mobile traffic are the largest contributors to web traffic, as the number of
users in both mediums is larger. As the number of users increases, web traffic increases significantly, impacting people who
access the web page [21].
Different types of traffic contribute to the web traffic dataset. Sites have their own method for monitoring incoming and
outgoing traffic to determine which part of the page is most frequently visited [22]. The organizational sector, groups, and
individuals are moving toward the internet, the biggest contributor to the web traffic dataset. We may require a combination of
tools, techniques, and strategic thinking to harness web traffic data [23].
Digital marketers must understand the different types of web traffic to effectively analyze and evaluate an individual’s presence
on an online platform. Website traffic is important for online businesses but can cause issues like slow loading, high costs,
security risks, and bad user experiences [24]. To solve these issues, website owners use security and monitoring tools and
strategies to handle increased traffic smoothly [25].
Accurate web traffic projections allow website administrators and online companies to better manage resources. This involves
reserving server capacity, bandwidth, and other infrastructure resources to handle expected user traffic. A good user experience
is essential for keeping and attracting website visitors [26]. Traffic projections may help content-driven websites like news
portals and e-commerce platforms customize their content strategy. They may prioritize and personalize information to engage
people more successfully by anticipating which articles, goods, or services will likely be in demand. Digital marketers use web
traffic estimates to plan and optimize their advertising campaigns [27]. Accurate projections assist companies in determining
when and where to deploy advertising funds, ensuring that commercials reach the appropriate audience at the appropriate time
[28].
Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) are critical to effectively delivering digital content. Traffic projections can help security
teams discover unusual trends and possible Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. Organizations may secure their
websites and online services by recognizing abrupt traffic surges and implementing proactive security measures. Accurate site
traffic projections help with budgetary planning [29]. Businesses may use forecasts to estimate income, allocate budgets, and
define financial targets. Forecasting web traffic encourages data-driven decision-making. Organizations may make educated
decisions regarding content development, marketing tactics, user experience upgrades, and more by relying on historical and
real-time data [30].
Forecasting models are important tools to forecast future values based on previous data and certain parameters. These
forecasting models use mathematical statistical concepts to generate accurate predictions. Forecasting web traffic is essential
because it allows digital marketers to plan effectively and manage risks [31]. Time series models forecast future value by
analyzing previous data over a specified period. Various web traffic forecasting applications include content and marketing
strategy, e-commerce inventory management, user experience optimization, and disaster preparedness [32].
Time series analysis is a fundamental approach to web traffic forecasting. It involves analyzing historical data to identify trends
and patterns. Various forecasting models exist today, but choosing the right model is the biggest task. The model’s complexity
should align with available data and the forecasting horizon [33]. Overly complex models can be computationally intensive and
prone to overfitting, while overly simplistic models may fail to capture essential nuances [34].
The process of making predictions about future events based on historical data is known as forecasting. Web traffic forecasting
predicts the future volume and web traffic patterns that a website or application will experience. Accurate forecasting helps
The main focus of this publication is to develop a time series forecasting model for web traffic using date and views as a
parameter to predict web traffic. This project data has been designed so that everyday views are recorded.
2. Objective
• Forecasting web traffic using the prophet model is to predict future web patterns accurately. By analyzing past data,
we aim to capture underlying patterns and trends in web applications.
• Forecasting web traffic can help in term planning for websites /web applications. It can help businesses plan for
capacity expansion, resource allocation, and strategic decisions related to their digital presence.
• Identify the seasonal pattern in web traffic data, such as daily, weekly, and yearly cycles. Understanding these patterns
is crucial for optimizing marketing campaigns, content scheduling, and server resources to accommodate peak traffic.
3. Literature Review
R. Casado-Vara et al. [1] approach the problem of web traffic prediction by designing a distributed and scalable architecture
that follows a design pattern from bottom to top. The authors use a scrapper to gather the web page’s view data, perform
preprocessing, discover the features, and find the patterns in the embedded data. They use the concept of LSTM to meet the
problem of forecasting the web traffic of the chosen page. They also use pattern detection techniques to design a distributed
architecture with several LSTMs, which were trained asynchronously using the downpour strategy.
Kochetkova et al. [2] propose two models, seasonal ARIMA and Holt winters, for short-term mobile network traffic forecasting.
These models are applied to real network traffic data from a mobile operator in Portugal and evaluated based on their accuracy
in forecasting download and upload traffic. The authors demonstrate that the SARIMA model is more appropriate for
forecasting download traffic, while the Holt-Winters model is better suited for forecasting upload traffic. The models are
suitable for fast and precise forecasting of mobile network traffic and can be implemented in cellular operators’ solutions
without a significant increase in cost.
Ma et al. [3] propose the Enhanced Information Graph Recursive Network (EIGRN), a deep learning-based model for accurate
traffic volume predictions. The model comprises a Graph Embedding Adaptive Graph Convolution Network (GE-AGCN), a
Modified Gated Recursive Unit (MGRU), and a local information augmentation module. The model accurately captures
spatiotemporal correlations in traffic data by combining graph convolutional networks and recursive neural networks.
Shelatkar et al. [4] have proposed a web traffic forecasting model using ARIMA and LSTM RNN. The main motive of this
project is to predict future web traffic to make decisions for better web congestion control. It also focuses on improving web
traffic load management and business analysis. Using LSTM RNN improves system efficiency by capturing seasonal cycles
and long trends successfully.
Kong et al. [5] have proposed a model based on a deep learning-based network traffic prediction model using the transformer
architecture. The model has been designed in such a way that it captures long-term time series features and parallelizes the
output. This model has a faster convergence speed, making it easier to handle multidimensional data.
Lohrasbinasab et al. [6] have suggested strategical-based strategies for network traffic predictions. The author has proposed the
ARMA AND ARIMA model for forecasting web traffic. The author used the two linear statistical models to uncover patterns
from existing data and forecast future points in time series based on lagged data.
Tambe et al. [7] have proposed an ARIMA model for web traffic forecasting. The author has trained the ARIMA model using
the page name, date visited, and number of visits as parameters. These parameters track page popularity weekly, monthly, and
annually. The authors also apply a golden ratio-based median of variable time frame window median to boost the model
efficiency.
Prajam et al. [8] proposed a method to forecast network traffic in real-time using ANN and LSTM and statistical methods such
as SMA and ARIMA. The proposed method uses a sliding window approach, which means the model will use a fixed window
of past data to predict future data. They have proposed that the ANN model has superior performance and accuracy compared
to other statistical methods.
Tedjopurnomo et al. [9] proposed a deep-learning neural network method for traffic prediction. The author has proposed the
model for convolution neural networks, feed-forward neural networks, and Recurrent neural networks. This publication spans
the years from 2014 to 2019. The author has debated 37 cutting-edge deep neural networks for traffic prediction.
Prophet, a forecasting tool created by Facebook, excels in modeling and predicting time series data with numerous seasonality
components and significant seasonal trends. It may anticipate online traffic by tracking seasonality daily, monthly, and annually.
In this model, we have used a prophet to forecast the web traffic. Facebook's Core Data Science team created the Prophet
model. Sean J. Taylor and Benjamin Letham initially described it in their "Forecasting at Scale" work 2017. Prophet is an open-
source forecasting tool for time series data. It has grown in popularity because of its ease of use and efficacy in forecasting a
wide range of time series data, including business indicators, financial data, and more. Its capacity to manage data with
seasonality, holidays, and missing values while giving interpretable projections makes it frequently utilized [36].
The prophet model has advantages, such as effectively handling seasonality, vacations, and trend variations. Data preparation
is minimal and has a simple syntax and an easy-to-use UI. It can capture numerous seasons and is suitable for missing data and
outliers in time series [37]. Prophet is programmed to identify and model yearly and weekly seasonality in data. This function
is especially useful for datasets with various recurrent patterns since it eliminates the need for manual seasonality detection.
Users can select holidays and their effects on time series data in the prophet. It includes built-in visualization functions for
plotting forecasts and components, making it easy to communicate forecasting results. It is critical to understand that no single
forecasting model is always preferable [38]. The selection of a forecasting model is determined by the unique properties of the
data as well as the forecasting purpose.
The prophet model is trained on a bespoke dataset that includes dates and views. We divided the dataset into test and train
halves, with 80 percent for training and 20 percent for testing. The columns of the data frame have been renamed to ds, which
includes the dates, and y, which contains the views; this step is critical for using the prophet model [39]. The train data is then
sent into the prophet model for training, and the trained model is used to produce future forecasts. The plotly plot and plots for
forecast components such as trend and seasonality are then plotted. Then, the extracted values from the forecast for the test data
are stored in y_pred. The true values are extracted from the test data and stored in y_true [40].
Prophet can discover instances in time data where the trend substantially shifts. This capacity to respond to rapid changes in
trends enables more accurate forecasting in dynamic contexts [41]. The model produces confidence intervals around the
predicted values. Users may use this feature to evaluate possible outcomes and make educated decisions depending on the
uncertainty [42]. Prophet is intended to be efficient and scalable to handle small and large datasets. It can easily handle millions
of observations [43]. Prophet model is used in many industries and applications for time series forecasting tasks, and some
areas are E-commerce and Retail, Finance and banking, Energy and Utilities, Healthcare, Marketing and Advertising, Supply
chain and Logistics, Human Resources, Weather and climate, and Real Estate [44].
Prophet was developed primarily for univariate time series forecasting, which models and forecasts a single time series. If your
forecasting work demands multivariate forecasting or numerous correlated time series, you may need to examine alternate
models [45]. While prophet simplifies many forecasting parts, hyperparameters such as seasonality prior scales and changepoint
prior scales must still be tuned [46]. The selection of hyperparameters can affect forecast accuracy. While prophet supports
bespoke holidays and events, it lacks sophisticated tools for adding domain-specific information or external factors, which may
be required in some forecasting applications [47].
This diagram depicts the sequence of activities and steps in the code for time series forecasting using Facebook Prophet. Each
box indicates a crucial coding step or procedure. Initially, the algorithm loads and analyses the dataset to learn about its structure
and properties. Following data loading, the algorithm visualizes the data, maybe utilizing multiple plots and charts to get
insights. The code configures and initializes the Facebook Prophet forecasting model, adjusting hyperparameters and other
necessary settings [48]. The algorithm may then decompose the time series data to separate the trend, seasonality, and residual
components. The Prophet model is trained using previous data to understand patterns and trends. The trained model creates
projections for future dates, which are then generated for the forecast period. The method then evaluates the model's
performance by computing measures like Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared
Error (RMSE) [49]. The algorithm may also classify binary by adding a threshold to the predictions and assessing precision
and other classification parameters. Cross-validation may be used to assess how effectively a model generalizes over multiple
time frames or eras [50]. This visual representation offers a clear overview of your code's sequential actions and processes,
making comprehending the workflow required in time series forecasting using Facebook Prophet simpler (Fig.1).
4.4. Formulas
MAE denotes the average magnitude of forecast errors. MAE handles all errors equally, unlike MSE, which squares the
discrepancies and penalizes larger errors more harshly. As a result, it offers a measure of the forecasting model's "typical"
inaccuracy.
4.5. Seasonal Decomposition
Seasonal decomposition is a time series analysis statistical approach that divides a dataset into separate components, including
the trend, seasonal changes, and residual or error components. It breaks down a time series into constituent components,
including the trend, seasonal patterns, and residuals. Visualizing the decomposition in the context of the Prophet model, which
is built to handle time series data with complicated seasonal patterns, lets users assess the model's performance and provides a
great tool for examining and understanding the data. "Trend" is one of the major components into which a time series is divided
in seasonal decomposition. The trend component indicates the time series data's long-term, progressive, consistent pattern or
direction. The seasonal component indicates the time series data's regular, periodic, and recurrent patterns or variations at
specified periods. After eliminating the impacts of the trend and seasonal impacts, the residual component captures the
unexplained variability or noise in the time series data. In other words, it comprises data variations that cannot be traced to a
long-term trend or regular seasonal patterns.
ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is a popular time series forecasting model in statistics and econometrics.
It is intended to detect and forecast patterns in time series data, a succession of observations recorded at regular intervals. The
Autoregressive (AR) Component (p) describes the connection between the current observation and its prior values, where "p"
specifies the autoregressive component's order. In other words, it considers the impact of earlier time steps on the current value.
Integrated (I) Component (d) is responsible for differencing the time series data to make it stationary. Stationarity denotes that
the time series' statistical features, such as mean and variance, do not fluctuate over time.
Moving Average (MA) Component (q) allows for the link between the present observation and the model's previous forecast
mistakes or residuals. To summarise, an ARIMA model is characterized by three parameters (p, d, q), which control the order
of autoregressive, differencing, and moving average components. ARIMA models are sophisticated time series forecasting
methods frequently utilized in domains such as economics, finance, epidemiology, etc. When dealing with seasonal data, they
can be expanded to seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models. The Arima model analyses and preprocesses time series data,
determining the proper p, d, and q values based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots. Prophet was built from the
ground up to handle time series data with significant seasonal trends and holiday impacts. It can identify and predict seasonality
annually, weekly, and daily, making it ideal for data with complicated seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, ARIMA may
need manual intervention and extra seasonal differencing for such data. Prophet can recognize and manage outliers in data
automatically, ensuring that extreme results or anomalies do not impact the forecast. Outlier identification and treatment in
ARIMA often need manual intervention.
Prophet gracefully handles missing data points in time series, making it resilient in cases where data completeness is a concern.
ARIMA may require imputation or further data preparation to handle missing values appropriately. When compared to ARIMA,
Prophet has fewer hyperparameters to tweak. ARIMA models need careful parameter selection, such as the autoregressive order
(p), differencing order (d), and moving average order (q), which can be difficult and time-consuming. ARIMA models are
unsuitable for detecting complicated seasonal trends in data. While they can deal with some seasonality through differencing,
4.7. Execution
To implement the prophet model for time series forecasting, we can use the prophet library developed by Facebook. First, install
the Prophet library.
Pip install prophet
Then, import the necessary libraries to manipulate the data. Then, create a prophet model object and fit your data.
Model=prophet ()
The next step is to create a data frame with dates for which you want to make web traffic forecasts using the
‘make_future_dataframe.’ Then, we use the prediction method to forecast future dates. Then, we plot the graph using matplotlib
or seaborn libraries to visualize the forecasted values.
5. Implementation
5.1. Data and Preprocessing
The dataset used in the project consists of 2 parameters: dates and views. The dataset time range is between 2015 and 2016.
The major preparation step is renaming the columns of the Data Frame to conform to the prophet's intended format. The dataset
is loaded, analyzed for null values, and contains no null values.
A box plot in Figure 3, often known as a box-and-whisker plot, is a graphical depiction of a dataset's distribution and spread. It
overviews important statistical parameters such as the median, quartiles, and probable outliers. The plot's box depicts the
interquartile range (IQR), encompassing the data's middle 50%. The box's bottom border corresponds to the 25th percentile
(Q1), while the box's top edge corresponds to the 75th percentile (Q3). The line within the box reflects the data's median (50th
percentile). The whiskers go from the box's edges to the minimum and maximum values within a certain range. These values
are often generated using the IQR and can aid in identifying potential outliers.
A line plot will produce a line plot with the x-axis representing dates or a continuous variable and the y-axis representing the
number of views. The line plot in Figure 4 will link the data points with lines, demonstrating how the variable 'Views' varies
over time or across the supplied x-values. The plot's line links data points chronologically, demonstrating the trend or pattern
in the 'Views' variable over time. The line's slope and direction indicate whether the values are growing, declining, or keeping
relatively steady.
Color palettes are commonly used to customize the colors of plots or visualizations. It might be used in the prophet to customize
the colors of components in plots created by the prophet. Seaborn is a well-known Python data visualization package that
includes utilities for producing visually appealing and useful graphs. sns.color_palette() is a Seaborn function that lets you
change or customize the color palette used in your Seaborn plots. For instance, you may use sns.color_palette() to define a
specific set of colors for a Seaborn plot, such as a line plot or a scatterplot (Figure 5).
5.3. Training
The dataset was split into training and testing data, with 80% and 20% of each. The Prophet machine learning model, deployed
by Facebook, was used to train the model. For training, the model jupyter notebook has been used. Python modules such as
pandas, numpy, matplotlib, and seaborn are used in the experimental analysis. Jupyter Notebook provides an interactive
computing environment where you can simultaneously write and execute code in one cell. This interactivity allows easy
exploration and experimentation with data and code. The Prophet model has several configuration options, such as
seasonality_mode, seasonality_prior_scale, holidays_prior_scale, changepoint_prior_scale, and n_changepoints.
Seasonality is modeled using the seasonality_mode option. This example is set to 'additive,' indicating that seasonal components
are added to the trend component to represent the data. The seasonality_prior_scale controls the seasonality component's
intensity. A greater value (10.0) makes seasonality more flexible and impactful. The holidays_prior_scale parameter controls
the effect of holidays on model predictions. A larger number (for example, 15.0) emphasizes holidays in the model. The
flexibility of changepoint detection in the data is influenced by changepoint_prior_scale. A lower number (for example, 0.05)
makes changepoints more flexible. The number of potential changepoints to examine in the data is given by n_changepoints.
This code specifies 25 change points.
5.4. Evaluation
Test samples were used to test the trained models, and their performance was assessed using measures such as mean absolute
error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and precision. The precision value is 1.0, which means that the predictions
made by the model are accurate. Depending on the specific aims of your investigation, it gives different visualizations of error
metrics and includes an optional estimate of accuracy for binary classification. The mean absolute and root mean squared errors
are 1.32 and 1.75, respectively. The evaluation section of the code allows you to evaluate the Prophet forecasting model's
performance by measuring the differences between projected and actual values using MAE, MSE, and RMSE.
Metrics Value
Mean absolute error 1.32
Mean squared error 3.08
Root mean squared error 1.75
The same dataset was trained with the ARIMA model, and the same metrics as the Prophet model were evaluated for the
ARIMA model. The results are:
Table 2: Comparison of Prophet and ARIMA Model
Models Mean absolute error Mean squared error Root mean squared error
Prophet model 1.32 3.08 1.75
ARIMA model 4.83 28.72 5.35
Table 2 clearly illustrates the difference in metrics for the prophet and ARIMA models. The same dataset was trained, but there
is a huge difference between the metrics, which clearly shows that the prophet model is best suited and makes accurate
predictions for the loaded dataset.
Data Availability Statement: The research contains data related to web traffic and associated metrics. The data consists of
views and dates as parameters.
Funding Statement: No funding has been obtained to help prepare this manuscript and research work.
Conflicts of Interest Statement: No conflicts of interest have been declared by the author(s). Citations and references are
mentioned as per the used information.
Ethics and Consent Statement: The consent was obtained from the organization and individual participants during data
collection, and ethical approval and participant consent were received.
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