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OBJECTIVES
1.Enumerate the theories of probability
LESSON 2 2.Define what is MPV
3.Compute for the residual and the probable error
4.Define the interrelationship of errors

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THEORY OF PROBABILITY THEORY OF PROBABILITY

• 1. Small errors occur more often than large ones

• 2. Large errors happen infrequently and are less probable 1. Small errors occur more
• 3. Positive and negative errors happen with equal frequency
• 4. The most probable value is the mean of an infinite number of observations
often than large ones

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THEORY OF PROBABILITY THEORY OF PROBABILITY

2. Large errors happen 3. Positive and negative errors

infrequently and are less happen with equal frequency
probable

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THEORY OF PROBABILITY MOST PROBABLE VALUE

4. The most probable value is the actual value is equal to the mean of
all the observations made infinite number
the mean of an infinite of times.
number of observations

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THE FORMULA FOR MPV IS: SAMPLE PROBLEM 1:

• Where: •A length is measured 6 times. The
• MPV = Most Probable measurements are as follows: 250.25, 250.15,
Value 249.90, 251.04, 250.50, 251.22. What is the
• x = observation
most probable value of the distance
• n = number of observations
measured?

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SOLUTION MOST PROBABLE VALUE

∑𝑥
𝑀𝑃𝑉 =
𝑛 In case of related measurements taken
𝑀𝑃𝑉 =
250.25 + 250.15 + 249.90 + 251.04 + 250.50 + 251.22 under identical conditions the MPVs are
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????????
the observed values corrected by an
𝑀𝑃𝑉 =
6
equal part of the total error.
𝑀𝑃𝑉 = ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

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SAMPLE PROBLEM 2 SOLUTION

The internal angles of the triangle are First step we identify the error by getting the sum of the
observation and subtract it to 180º.
measured. The measurements are A =
35º14’37”, B = 96º30’9” C = 48º15’5”. What 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝐴𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑠
is the most probable value of the angles = 35º14’37” + 96º30’9” + 48º15”5’
measured? =? ? ? º? ? ? ? "

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SOLUTION SOLUTION
First step we identify the error by getting the sum of the
Our correction is
observation and subtract it to 180º.
Correction = 9”/ 3 = ???
𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 179º59 51" − 180º
𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = ????"

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SOLUTION RESIDUAL
Our correction is 3” is added to the 3 observations: •Difference between measured quantity and
A = 35º14’40” its most probable value.

B = 96º30’12” V1 = X1 – MPV
C = 48º15’8” V2 = X2 – MPV
And so on.

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V1 = X1 – MPV

RESIDUAL V2 = X2 – MPV
...
SAMPLE PROBLEM
•A length is measured 6 times. The
• V1 = is the residual of the first observation measurements are as follows: 250.25,
250.15, 249.90, 251.04, 250.50, 251.22.
• V2 = is the residual of the 2nd observation
What are the residuals of the observations
(v1, v2,…,v6)

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SOLUTION SOLUTION
• The first step is to calculate the MPV of the 6 observations. • Using the MPV we can get the residual of each observation by
subtracting MPV from the observed quantity.
∑𝑥
𝑀𝑃𝑉 = V1 = 250.25 – 250.51 = ??.??
𝑛
250.25 + 250.15 + 249.90 + 251.04 + 250.50 + 251.22 V2 = 250.15 – 250.51 = ??.??
𝑀𝑃𝑉 = V3 = 249.90 – 250.51 = ??.??
6
????.?? V4 = 251.04 – 250.51 = ??.??
𝑀𝑃𝑉 = V5 = 250.50 – 250.51 = ??.??
6
𝑀𝑃𝑉 =? ? ? . ? ? V6 = 251.22 – 250.51 = ??.??

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PROBABLE ERROR
•Probable error defines the half-range of
an interval about a central point for the
distribution, such that half of the values from
the distribution will lie within the interval
and half outside.

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PROBABLE ERROR OF ANY SINGLE PROBABLE ERROR OF ANY SINGLE

MEASUREMENT MEASUREMENT

Where:
• ∑ 𝑉 = summation of the residual squared
• n = the total number of observations
• 0.6745 = is a constant derived from the normal distribution

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PROBABLE ERROR OF THE MEAN PROBABLE ERROR OF THE MEAN

Where:
• ∑ 𝑉 = summation of the residual squared
• n = the total number of observations
• 0.6745 = is a constant derived from the normal distribution

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SAMPLE PROBLEM SOLUTION

•A length is measured 6 times. The • The most probable value is 250.51, the residual is

measurements are as follows: 250.25, Residual

V1 250.25 – 250.51 -0.26
250.15, 249.90, 251.04, 250.50, 251.22. V2 250.15 – 250.51 -0.36
What is the PEs and PEm? What is the
V3 249.90 – 250.51 -0.61
V4 251.04 – 250.51 0.53
Relative Precision? V5
V6
250.50 – 250.51 -0.01
251.22 – 250.51 0.71

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SOLUTION SOLUTION

• Compute for the square of the residuals • Get the summation of all the squared residuals. The sum is

Residual V2
V1 250.25 – 250.51 -0.26 ???? 𝑉 = 0.0676 + 0.1296 + 0.3721 + 0.2809 + 0.0001 + 0.5041
V2 250.15 – 250.51 -0.36 ????
V3 249.90 – 250.51 -0.61 ????
V4 251.04 – 250.51 0.53 ????
V5 250.50 – 250.51 -0.01 ???? 𝑉 =? ? ? ?
V6 251.22 – 250.51 0.71 ????

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PROBABLE ERROR OF ANY SINGLE PROBABLE ERROR OF THE MEAN

MEASUREMENT

•Compute PEs ∑𝑉 •Compute Pem ∑𝑉

using the formula: 𝑃𝐸𝑠 = ±0.6745 using the formula: 𝑃𝐸m = ±0.6745
𝑛−1 (𝑛)(𝑛 − 1)
. .
𝑃𝐸𝑠 = ±0.6745 𝑃𝐸𝑚 = ±0.6745
∗( )
𝑃𝐸𝑠 =? ? 𝑃𝐸m =? ?

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RELATIVE ERROR/PRECISION SAMPLE PROBLEM

Expressed as a fraction having the magnitude •What is the relative precision of the
of the error in the numerator and magnitude measurement of the previous example?
of the measured quantity in the denominator. 𝟐𝟓𝟎. 𝟓𝟏 ± 𝟎. 𝟏𝟒
Expressed in singularity.

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SOLUTION INTERRELATIONSHIP OF ERROR

•Relative precision of a single measurement = • The propagation of error is unique to the

0.35/250.51 = 1/ 715.74 operations.

•Relative precision of the mean = • Error behaves differently when adding or

multiplying.
0.14/250.51 = 1/ 1789.36

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SUMMATION OF ERROR SUMMATION OF ERROR

•If measurements are added we add the most • If measurements are added we add the most probable value and the
probable error of the sum is given by the square root of the sum of the
probable value and the probable error of square of individual probable error.

the sum is given by the square root of the

sum of the square of individual probable
error.

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SAMPLE PROBLEM SOLUTION

• To get the perimeter we add the lengths of the side. We add
The sides of a triangle are measured to
first the MPV for each measurement.
be 162.54±0.03, 234.26±0.05 and
MPV of the Perimeter = 162.54 + 234.26 + 195.70 =? ? ?
195.7±0.04. Find the perimeter of the
triangle.

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SOLUTION PRODUCT OF ERROR

• The probable error of the perimeter is calculated using the • For a measured quantity, which is determined by a product of
formula two other independently measured quantity, the probable error
is given by the following equation.
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 = 0.03 + 0.05 + 0.04
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 =
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 =????

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PRODUCT OF ERROR SAMPLE PROBLEM

The sides of a rectangular lot have
Where: the following measurement
• PEP = Probable Error of the Product
253.36±0.06m and 624.15±0.08m.
• Q1, Q2 = MPV of 1st/2nd measurement
• PE1, PE2 = Probable Error of 1st/2nd measurement Get the area.

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SOLUTION SOLUTION
• probable error of the perimeter is calculated using the formula
• To get the area we multiply the length and width. We
multiply the MPV for each measurement.

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 = 253.36 ∗ 0.08) + 624.15 ∗ 0.06

MPV of the Area = 253.36 ∗ 624.15 = ? ? ? ? ? ? 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 = ? ? ? ? . ? ?
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 =? ? . ? ?

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SOLUTION
• probable error of the perimeter is calculated using the formula

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 = 253.36 ∗ 0.08) + 624.15 ∗ 0.06

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 = ? ? ? ? . ? ?
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 =? ? . ? ?

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