Proposed Plan For Victory in Ukraine
Proposed Plan For Victory in Ukraine
Proposed Plan For Victory in Ukraine
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
The Threat...................................................................1
Oversight.....................................................................8
Burden Sharing...........................................................13
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Appeasing dictators won’t work – Republicans need to fight back against this
administration’s failing policies vis-à-vis Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and
Venezuela. Russia’s war of aggression - the largest land invasion in Europe since the
Second World War - is eerily reminiscent of Poland of 1939. At the same time, we are
seeing rising hostilities in the Indo-Pacific by Chairman Xi. And now we are facing a full-
scale war in the Middle East that threatens to destabilize the entire region.
Biden is mishandling the worst war in Europe since World War II. His weakness failed to
deter Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, continues to prolong the war, and risks
inviting further aggression from America’s adversaries.
Biden did not impose a single significant sanction on Russia as it amassed troops
around Ukraine in the lead-up to the invasion, nor did he provide significant military
assistance during those critical months. In fact, he rolled-back and failed to enforce
Trump-era sanctions on key Kremlin projects such as Nord Stream 2. This weakness
forfeited the last opportunity to deter Russia and prevent this costly war.
It is no coincidence that Russia invaded Ukraine a mere six months after Biden’s
shameful surrender to the Taliban and humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. Putin
sensed American weakness and believed he could seize Ukraine without a significant
response from the West. The disastrous withdrawal and faulty timelines drained
American credibility globally and led to U.S. warnings of an impending Russian invasion
of Ukraine falling on deaf ears.
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Since the first day of the war, Biden’s debilitating hesitation to provide
critical weapons to Ukraine has delayed a Ukrainian victory. Ukraine needs
the longest-range variant of ATACMS, F-16s, and sufficient quantities of
cluster munitions, artillery, air defenses, and armor to make a difference
on the battlefield. This delay is costing Ukrainian lives and the American
taxpayer.
A path to victory for Ukraine will require (1) providing critical weapons to
Ukraine at the speed of relevance, (2) tightening sanctions on the Putin
regime, and (3) transferring frozen Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine.
This will take congressional Republican pressure, which has been the key
to unlocking every new needed weapon system to Ukraine since the start
of the war. The bipartisan and bicameral bill, the REPO Act, will also
require the Biden administration lead a coalition of allies to transfer up to
$300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets to assist Ukraine.
This strategy will ensure Ukraine is able to make the needed advances on
the battlefield to force Putin to the negotiating table. If Ukraine doesn’t
negotiate from a position of strength, there can be no lasting peace.
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Biden is indirectly funding both sides of this war through his disastrous Iran policy.
Multi-billion-dollar ransom payments to the Ayatollah and sanctions relief worth far
greater have, for example, allowed Iran to build and transfer hundreds of drones to
Russia. This supply of weaponry will become more sophisticated as the sanctions relief
continues.
China has also given Russia access to satellite navigation to aid Russian military strikes
in Ukraine, and it has served as a backdoor through which Russia has procured dual-use
technologies, like chips, to feed its war machine.
Russia has refused to condemn Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel and sponsored a UN
resolution calling for a premature ceasefire. Senior Hamas delegations have visited
Moscow three times this year – including immediately before and after the October 7
terrorist attack on Israel.
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North Korea is supplying artillery shells to Russia for use in Ukraine. In return, there is
growing concern Vladimir Putin will share advanced weapons and satellite technologies
which would support North Korea’s military nuclear program.
Prioritizing Oversight
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As a percentage of GDP, the U.S. ranks just 30th in total assistance to Ukraine, with
Poland, the Baltic states, the UK, Norway, and others contributing more in terms of this
metric. In terms of security assistance by GDP, the U.S. ranks 14th. Europe has also
committed more non-security assistance to Ukraine than the United States. House
Republicans need to push our allies to continue this positive trend.
The U.S. has committed $44 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of
the full-scale invasion. That amounts to just 3.9% of our defense budget. With U.S.
weapons, Ukraine has significantly degraded Putin’s army, causing almost 300,000
casualties – all without a single U.S. servicemember being put in harm’s way.
Defeating Putin in Ukraine now will prevent a Russian invasion of a NATO ally, which
would be immeasurably more costly in terms of American blood and treasure.
The extent to which the U.S. defense industrial base has suffered in the decades since
the Cold War was well-known before the war. However, the demand signal caused by
U.S. assistance to Ukraine has incentivized industry to fix bottlenecks and boost
production, therefore better positioning the U.S. to help credibly deter an invasion of
Taiwan and support other allies.
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Europe is finally moving away from energy dependence on Russia and importing more
U.S. LNG. Instead of restricting U.S. fossil fuel production to appease his base, Biden
should promote America’s reliable and cleaner oil and gas industry.
Like the horrors Hamas has inflicted on Israel, Russian forces have committed countless
war crimes in Ukraine, including executions, torture, and rape. Russia has also kidnapped
tens of thousands of Ukrainian children and sent them to so-called re-education camps
in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Those responsible for these crimes must face justice. If
Russia is able to conquer more of Ukraine, millions more innocent civilians will be
subject to a similarly horrific fate.
President Trump understood Putin only respects strength. Trump reversed the Obama-
Biden administration’s disastrous lethal arms embargo on Ukraine, becoming the first
U.S. President to transfer Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. This policy helped deter a
full-scale invasion of Ukraine on President Trump’s watch. Biden’s sanctions and export
control regime are riddled with loopholes. In particular, the U.S. must ramp up and
strengthen enforcement of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, which are still funding
Putin’s war machine to the tune of billions of dollars per month.
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If the United States abandons our Allies like we did in Afghanistan, we will lose our trust
and standing in the world as the leader of the free world. Our adversaries and enemies
will be emboldened and empowered and the world will become more dangerous. Just as
the greatest generation defeated the forces of evil, liberating Europe and the Pacific, we
will protect their legacy. The United States can carry the torch of freedom, democracy,
and human rights, or she can retreat into a false sense of security. The choice is ours,
the time is now, history is on our side.
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As of November 2023, the Inspectors General of the DoD, State, and USAID have not
identified any significant diversion, theft, or misuse of U.S. assistance to Ukraine.
The GOP House majority has demanded more oversight and transparency of U.S.
assistance for Ukraine, bringing in DoD, State, and USAID Inspectors General to
testify before numerous committees – something the Democratic majority failed to
do even once last Congress.
There are 96 ongoing or planned audits and reports by the IGs of more than 20
different agencies, as well as the Government Accountability Office (GAO), to
monitor, audit, and evaluate activities related to the Ukraine response. 39 have
been completed. Details are publicly available on their websites.
The Ukraine Oversight Working Group has consisted of 20 agencies led by the
Inspector Generals from DoD, State, and USAID. This group – which has met at least
once a month – has coordinated the oversight of the U.S. Government’s Ukraine
response, including by implementing the publicly-available Joint Strategic Oversight
Plan and ensuring there are no duplications or gaps in oversight coverage.
In August 2023, the Chair of the Council of Inspectors General on Integrity and
Efficiency (CIGIE) selected the DoD IG to be the Lead IG for the whole-of-
government Ukraine oversight effort. This designation represents a
formalization and elevation of the Working Group structure and will further
build upon existing efforts. As Lead IG, the DoD IG is required to submit
quarterly reports to Congress and the public and take over the implementation
of the Joint Strategic Oversight Plan.
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DoD has unprecedented insight into the status of the 31 types of high-end military
equipment transferred to Ukraine, including serial number tracking for HIMARS,
howitzers, Abrams tanks, and Bradley and Stryker vehicles, among others. This is
because DoD provides virtual help to Ukrainians on the front lines, which ensures
updated information on the status of U.S.-provided equipment. Further, the Joint Staff
closely tracks the level of key munitions transferred to Ukraine in real time. DoD is also
leveraging its presence at Embassy Kyiv to conduct extraordinary site inspections for in-
country inventory verification where security conditions allow.
USAID OIG has an investigative arm and agents in Kyiv who are working closely
alongside the Department of Justice to investigate and potentially prosecute all
allegations of crimes committed against USAID programs and operations in Ukraine.
Details on these allegations are posted on USAID OIG’s website, including here.
The OIGs work closely with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, the
Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine, the High Anti-Corruption
Court of Ukraine, and Ukrainian civil society organizations in combatting the misuse of
any U.S. assistance and holding any bad actors accountable.
Over the first four Ukraine supplementals, the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act,
and the FY22 and FY23 omnibus appropriations acts, there are 39 provisions that require
reports to Congress on oversight and accountability of all aid sent to Ukraine, including
reporting on:
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Planned use for and the results achieved by U.S. direct budget support (DBS) to the
Government of Ukraine (GOU);
As required by law, all U.S. DBS to Ukraine is done on a reimbursable basis, meaning
funds are only disbursed following the World Bank’s verification the money was spent on
approved activities. All funds also are subject to external third-party monitoring by
Deloitte, which, among other activities, is conducting randomized spot checks to verify
the uses of DBS and working with Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance to review its monitoring,
transparency, verification, and reporting systems and procedures. USAID also receives
detailed progress and financial reporting, including monthly verification reports, bi-
annual implementation status and impact assessments, and annual progress reports
from the World Bank. In the spring of 2023, PwC completed a review and confirmed that
the Government of Ukraine adhered to the agreed upon World Bank procedures for the
first tranche of DBS. PwC will complete its next review in December 2023. Finally,
numerous audits of DBS are being conducted, including by the World Bank, the
Accounting Chamber of Ukraine (ACU) with GAO support, and KPMG. The first audits
conducted by the World Bank and ACU/GAO will be completed by December 2023.
The House-passed H.R. 4665, the Fiscal Year 2024 Department of State, Foreign
Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, included unprecedented Ukraine-
specific oversight provisions requiring the Department to adhere to the following
requirements:
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Cost Matching Requirement – Requires other donors to provide more than half of
non-security funds for U.S. dollars to move.
Obligation Report – Requires regular reports to Congress on how all funds related to
the Ukraine response are spent that also must be published on the State
Department’s website for public transparency.
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The House-passed H.R. 2670, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
2024, provides flexible hiring authorities for the OIGs for matters related to the oversight
of U.S. assistance to Ukraine, creates a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance,
and mandates transparency by requiring numerous reports to and briefings for Congress,
including on allied contributions to Ukraine, a plan to encourage other countries to
increase their military contributions to Ukraine, oversight of U.S. assistance to Ukraine,
and the status of U.S. weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
The House-passed H.R. 5692, the Ukraine Security Assistance and Oversight
Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024, provides funding for a special inspector general
for Ukraine, if authorized by the final NDAA.
The House-passed H.R. 4365, the Fiscal Year 2024 Department of Defense Appropriations
Act, includes:
A requirement that the inspector general review the department’s end-use monitoring
program.
State Department, USAID, and DoD Inspectors General testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee
Oversight, Transparency,
on Marchand Accountability of Ukraine Assistance
23, 2023.
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To date, international donors have committed $109.4 billion in security, economic and
humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, complementing the U.S. commitment of $74.3
billion to Ukraine.
As a percentage of GDP, 29 European countries have provided more aid to Ukraine than
the U.S.
Vladimir Putin has triggered an awakening in many corners of Europe that it must take
the continent’s defense more seriously.
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In 2023, NATO collectively boosted defense spending by 8.3% – the largest yearly
increase in the past decade – and allies have purchased $90 billion of U.S. weapons
to backfill their donations to Ukraine.
As a percentage of GDP, the United States ranks 14th in terms of providing security
assistance to Ukraine behind Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Denmark, Poland,
Albania, North Macedonia, Croatia, Sweden, Norway, the United Kingdom, and
Germany. EUCOM estimates that Allies and partners have committed $35 billion in
security assistance to Ukraine. Combined with U.S. security assistance to date ($43.9
billion), Ukraine has received $79 billion total in international security assistance
commitments.
The UK, Poland, and the Baltics were the first to provide Western tanks to Ukraine. This
“tank Coalition” transferred Challenger and Leopard tanks.
The UK and France were the first to provide long-range missiles (Storm Shadow and
SCALP missiles).
Our European allies, particularly the Netherlands and Denmark, have led on training F-16
pilots and transferring these aircraft to Ukraine. The U.S. agreed to also train F-16 pilots
after pressure from our European allies and Congress.
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Understanding the outcome of the war in Ukraine will have consequences for peace and
stability in the Indo-Pacific, many of our Asian partners have assisted Kyiv. The Republic
of Korea, Taiwan, and Japan all joined the U.S. in sanctions against Russia. All three
also contribute humanitarian assistance, recovery assistance, and nonlethal equipment
to Ukraine.
Republic of Korea: The ROK has provided $250 million to Ukraine to date and
pledged an additional $2.3 billion in humanitarian, financial and reconstruction aid.
The ROK government has also reportedly transferred artillery rounds to replenish
stocks.
Taiwan: Political support for Ukraine remains high in Taiwan, in no small part due to
the threat of a CCP invasion. The country has committed nearly $112 million to
Ukraine.
Non-Security Assistance
Europe has provided twice as much non-security assistance to Ukraine as the U.S. –
about $68.53 billion from Europe compared to $29.3 billion from the U.S.
In terms of direct budget support to Ukraine, the U.S. contribution ($22.9 billion) is
around one third of the total direct budget support ($66.5 billion) received by the
Government of Ukraine.
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Close to 8 million refugees have been recorded in the EU, and more than 4 million
Ukrainians have registered for temporary protection in the EU, which means they are
entitled to work, accommodation, healthcare, as well as schooling for their children at
the EU’s expense. Today, close to 20 percent of Ukraine’s children are taking refuge in
the EU. By comparison, the U.S. has taken in around 250,000 Ukrainian refugees.
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Economic Assistance
U.S.
34%
Other Donors
66%
Military Assistance
Other Donors
44%
U.S.
56%
Humanitarian Assistance
U.S.
34%
Other Donors
66%
Total Assistance
U.S.
45%
Other Donors
55%
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The Biden administration’s feeble approach to foreign policy crises is costing Ukrainian
lives and American treasure. From his failure in Afghanistan, and his inability to secure
the U.S. border, to his failure to quickly put an end to Russia’s renewed aggression in
Ukraine, President Biden’s policies are projecting a weak image of the U.S. abroad and
forcing the taxpayer to bail him out. If President Biden stood up to Vladimir Putin with
pre-invasion sanctions, didn’t rollback Trump administration sanctions on Nord Stream 2,
and provided visible and significant lethal assistance, he could have deterred Putin
before he invaded. Unfortunately, the current Biden policy of supporting Ukraine “for as
long as it takes” has prolonged this conflict. Instead, the strategy should be to give
Ukraine the resources it needs to win now, and inflict maximum pressure on the Russian
economy, so that this conflict can be brought to an end.
June 2021: In June 2021, President Biden halted a package of lethal military
assistance to Ukraine to help facilitate a Biden-Putin Summit in Geneva. Chairmen
Rogers and McCaul issued a statement saying, “As evidenced by its earlier decisions
to pull back two U.S. warships from the Black Sea during Russia’s military buildup,
waive critical sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and delay meeting with
Ukrainian President Zelensky until after last week’s fruitless Biden-Putin summit, this
administration has time and time again chosen to appease the Kremlin at the expense
of Ukraine. This must end.”
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Pre-February 24, 2022: With the Biden administration and Democrats back in power,
Vladimir Putin began massing troops on the Ukrainian border to test the resolve of
the new President. Biden confirmed to Putin that he would continue the Obama-era
appeasement policies by rolling back Trump-era sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Despite
the overwhelming evidence that Putin’s army was about to launch a full-scale
invasion, President Biden continued to capitulate and refused to seriously sanction
Russia or arm Ukraine, over the objections of Republicans in Congress. Biden hoped
these policies of appeasement and continued dialogue would convince Putin to pull
Russian forces back from Ukraine’s border. Biden was wrong.
February 24, 2022: President Biden’s appeasement policies failed to deter Putin.
Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Biden
administration had months of warning from the U.S. Intelligence Community yet took
no action to deter Russia. The Biden administration also failed to garner European
support to push-back on Russia’s military build-up as its warnings fell on deaf-ears
given the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Notably, the Biden administration’s
warnings were so underwhelming that the head of the German intelligence service
was in Kyiv on the day of the invasion.
First weeks of the full-scale invasion: Without sufficient security assistance from the
U.S. and Ukraine’s other partners, Ukraine’s Armed Forces quickly lost ground.
Thousands of Ukrainians found themselves behind enemy lines and suffered war
crimes and other atrocities at the hands of Russian soldiers in places like Bucha,
Izyum, and Kherson. Russia also blockaded much of the Black Sea, devastating
Ukraine’s economy and exacerbating global food insecurity.
March 2022: The Biden administration finally begins to arm the Ukrainians, who have
held the Russians off from deposing the government. The first shipment of U.S.-origin
Stingers finally arrived in Ukraine. They had been unnecessarily delayed for months,
allegedly over concerns of classified components, which were ultimately removed
easily.
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March 2022 (continued): This same month, the U.S. refused to publicly provide
political support for Poland to deliver its entire MiG-29 fleet, which could have helped
Ukraine protect its skies.
Early April 2022: Ukraine won the Battle of Kyiv, exceeding the Biden administration’s
assessment that the Ukrainian capital would fall within three days.
Summer 2022: Russian forces refocused their offensive on Ukraine’s east and south,
capturing all of the Luhansk region and several key cities, like Mariupol. Russia’s
massive artillery superiority was used to devastating effect.
June 2022: The U.S. announced U.S.-origin Harpoon anti-ship missiles would be sent
to Ukraine, months after the Russian Navy completed its blockade of the Black Sea and
launched deadly cruise missile attacks from ships just off Ukraine’s southern coast
with impunity.
The first U.S. High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) finally arrived in
Ukraine, followed by British and German Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).
These much-delayed systems enabled Ukraine to stop Russia’s progress in the east
and south and later launch its own counteroffensive.
August 2022: Tehran began providing Russia with Iranian-made drones, unleashing a
devastating campaign against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, the
administration refused to provide Ukraine with longer-range Army Tactical Missile
Systems (ATACMS) to strike the drones at their staging areas in Crimea and elsewhere
in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.
September 2022: Kharkiv Oblast was liberated by Ukrainian forces. Putin illegally
claimed to annex Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. That same
month, in the middle of heavy fighting, the administration inexplicably allowed a
possible $2.3 billion of congressionally-authorized transfers of weapons from U.S.
stocks to Ukraine to go unfulfilled.
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November 2022: The first two U.S. National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems
(NASAMS) air defense systems, which are effective against aircraft, missile, and drone
threats, arrived in Ukraine after months of Russian strikes on civilian and energy
infrastructure.
Ukraine liberated Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital that fell to Russia,
following a counteroffensive using U.S.-supplied HIMARS that made Russia’s
continued occupation untenable.
February 2023: The U.S. announced that it would send Ground-Launched Small
Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) to Ukraine. These munitions have a longer range than those
previously provided by the U.S., but still less than ATACMS. However, they are not
expected to arrive before early 2024.
Despite the administration’s refusal to support the effort, the United Kingdom became
the first country to publicly announce its intent to train Ukrainian pilots to fly NATO
fighter jets.
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March 2023: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) and
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL), along with Ranking
Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Jim Risch (R-ID) and Ranking
Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee Roger Wicker (R-MS), sent a letter to
President Biden urging the administration to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions.
These munitions, which have been in U.S. stocks for decades, would be a crucial tool
to defeat the Russians. The administration ignored the request for far too long.
April 2023: The first U.S.-provided Patriot missile defense system, first pledged in
December 2022, arrived in Ukraine. It is soon followed by another system donated
jointly by the Netherlands and Germany.
May 2023: After over a year of pressure from Congress, Ukrainian officials, and
various NATO allies including the United Kingdom, Denmark, and the Netherlands, the
Biden administration finally agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on and provide F-16s, but
not until 2024.
The UK announced it would send Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have a similar
range to the U.S.’s ATACMS, to Ukraine. In July, France announced that it would
provide its own version of the long-range missile. These missiles have enabled Ukraine
to strike high-value military targets in Russian-occupied territory deep behind the front
lines. These transfers were met with no significant Russian response, yet the Biden
administration still refused to provide ATACMS.
June 2023: Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive without many of the
weapon systems it had requested, including Abrams tanks, cluster munitions, F-16s,
GLSDB, and ATACMS. Biden’s delays of critical weapon systems forced Ukraine to
delay the launch of the counteroffensive for months, giving Russian soldiers time to
fortify their defensive positions, which have proven difficult for Ukraine to break
through.
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July 2023: The Biden administration finally approved the transfer of dual-purpose
improved conventional munitions (DPICM), or cluster munitions, to Ukraine. If provided
earlier, these could have been used to great effect to address Russia’s greater quantity
of artillery, armor, and personnel.
September 2023: U.S.-pledged Abrams tanks finally arrived in Ukraine – six months
after the first German Leopard tanks had arrived and over three months after the start
of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
October 2023: Shorter-range variants of ATACMS missiles make their battlefield debut
by destroying numerous Russian helicopters based in Ukraine. The provision of
ATACMS is a positive development, but too few were sent and it took over a year of
pressure from Congress, Ukraine, and U.S. allies. Providing these weapons to Ukraine
months after its counteroffensive began is emblematic of the administration’s failure
to arm Ukraine at the speed of relevance. Moreover, the ATACMS variant provided to
Ukraine has a much shorter range than the longer-range variant that a bipartisan
coalition in Congress has been calling for (100 miles vs. 190 miles). The longer-range
model still must go to Ukraine to target critical Russian military targets in Crimea.
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