Probability

I & II
Module 6 & 7

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 Examples

Flip a coin Rolling a die

Heads & tails 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6

Marks of exam Recording

(out of 100) grade of exam
Numbers between 0 to 100 A, B, C, D and F

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 Sample Space
● A sample space of a random experiment is a list of all possible outcomes of the
experiment.

● The outcomes must be exhaustive and mutually exclusive.

S = {O1, O2, O3,……,Ok}

● We can produce more than one list of exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes.

Events
● An event is a collection or set of one or more simple events in a sample space.

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 Types of Events
Dependent
Event Sure Event
Events whose outcome Event that will always
depends on a previous happen.
outcome.

Independent Impossible Simple Event

Event Event If an event consists of a single
result from the sample space,
Events whose outcome An event that can never
it is termed a simple event.
does not depend on some happen
previous outcome. RIDDHI PASARI 4
 Types of Events
Mutually Equally Likely
Exclusive Events Events
Events that cannot occur Events in which the outcomes
at the same time. are equally possible.

Compound Exhaustive Complementary

Event Event Event
Event consists of more than a single Exhaustive events are a set of events When there are two events such
result from the sample space. one of them compulsorily occurs that one event can occur if and only
while performing the experiment. if the other does not take place.
5 RIDDHI PASARI
 Probability
Rules
1. The probability of event occurring always has
a value between 0 and 1, inclusive.
2. The probabilities of all outcomes must always
add up to 1.

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 Methods of Assigning
Probabilities
Classical
Approach
Each outcome is assumed
to have an equal Subjective
probability of occurrence. Approach
Probability is assigned
as the degree of belief

Relative that we hold in the

occurrence of an event.
Frequency Assigning probability

Approach based on judgements.

Assigning probabilities based on

experimentation or historical data. RIDDHI PASARI 7
 Probability of an Event
● The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the simple events that
constitute the event.

Example: Recording grade of exam

Assigning probabilities to simple events as follows:

P(A)= .20
P(B)= .30
P(C)= .25
P(D)= .15
P(F)= .10
P(pass the course)= P(A)+ P(B)+ P(C)+ P(D)

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Types of Probability
Joint, Marginal & Conditional

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.

Joint
Conditional

Marginal
Also known as
intersection of
events
𝐏𝐏(𝐀𝐀 ∩ 𝐁𝐁)
𝐏𝐏 𝐀𝐀 𝐁𝐁 =
Joint probability is a 𝐏𝐏(𝐁𝐁)
statistical measure that Also known as
Conditional probability is
calculates the Simple probability
defined as the likelihood of
likelihood of two events
Marginal probability is an event or outcome
occurring at the same
the probability of a occurring, based on the
time. It is a type of
single event occurring, occurrence of a previous
probability that deals
independent of other event or outcome.
with the intersection of
events.
two independent
events. RIDDHI PASARI 10
Multiplication and Addition Rule

When events are

Multiplication independent
Rule When events
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝐵𝐵) are dependent

Addition When events are

independent
Rule
When events
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝐵𝐵) are dependent

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How to check whether two events are
independent
If,
𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 = 𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 × 𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐵
Than the two events A & B are independent.

How to check whether two events are

mutually exclusive
If,
𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 = 0
Than the two events A & B are mutually exclusive.
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Decision Trees
Also known as Probability Trees

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 A graduate statistics course has seven male and three female
students. The professor wants to select two students at random
to help her conduct a research project. What is the probability
that the two students chosen are female?

The professor who teaches the course is suffering from flu and
will be unavailable for two classes. The professor’s replacement
will teach the next two classes. His style is to select one student
at random and pick on him or her to answer questions during
that class. What is the probability that the two students chosen
are female?
What is the probability that one student chosen is female and
one is male in above two cases?
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RIDDHI PASARI
 Students who graduate from law schools must still pass a bar
exam before becoming lawyers. Suppose that in a particular
jurisdiction the pass rate for first-time test takers is 72%.
Candidates who fail the first exam may take it again several
months later. Of those who fail their first test, 88% pass their
second attempt. Find the probability that a randomly selected
law school graduate becomes a lawyer. Assume that candidates
cannot take the exam more than twice.

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RIDDHI PASARI
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Bayes' Theorem
When we need to know the possible
cause of the effect already occurred.

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