RELIABILITY

• Reliability is the probability of a product performing its intended

function for a stated period of time under certain specified
conditions.
• Four aspects of reliability are apparent from this definition.
– First, reliability is a probability-related concept; the numerical value of this
probability is between 0 and 1.
– Second, the functional performance of the product has to meet certain
stipulations.
– Third, reliability implies successful operation over a certain period of time.
– Fourth, operating or environmental conditions under which product use
takes place are specified.
 LIFE-CYCLE CURVE AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN
MODELING RELIABILITY

• Most products go through three distinct

phases from product inception to wear-out.
• Figure shows a typical life-cycle curve for
which the failure rate λ is plotted as a
function of time.
• This curve is often referred to as the
bathtub curve; it consists of the
debugging phase, the chance-failure phase,
and the wear-out phase. FIGURE: Typical life-cycle curve
 RELIABILITY

• The debugging phase, also known as the infant-mortality phase,

exhibits a drop in the failure rate as initial problems identified
during prototype testing are ironed out.
• The chance failure phase, between times t1 and t2, is then
encountered; failures occur randomly and independently. This
phase, in which the failure rate is constant, typically represents the
useful life of the product.
• Following this is the wear-out phase, in which an increase in the
failure rate is observed. Here, at the end of their useful life, parts
age and wear out.
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• Exponential Distribution The life-cycle curve shown in above figure

shows the variation of the failure rate as a function of time. For the chance-
failure phase, which represents the useful life of the product, the failure rate
is constant.
• As a result, the exponential distribution can be used to describe the time
to failure of the product for this phase.
• The probability density function of exponential distribution is given by

• where λ denotes the failure rate

 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• The mean time to failure (MTTF) for the exponential distribution is given
as

• Thus, if the failure rate is constant, the mean time to failure is the reciprocal
of the failure rate.
• For repairable equipment, this is also equal to the mean time between
failures (MTBF).
• There will be a difference between MTBF and MTTF only if there is a
significant repair or replacement time upon failure of the product.
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• The reliability at time t, R(t), is the

probability of the product lasting up to at
least time t. It is given by

• where F(t) represents the cumulative

distribution function at time t.
• Adjacent Figure shows the reliability
function, R(t), for the exponential failure
distribution.
• At time 0, the reliability is 1, as it should be. FIGURE: Reliability function for the
Reliability decreases exponentially with time. exponential time-to-failure
distribution
 Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate

• In general, the failure-rate function r(t) is given

by the ratio of the time-to-failure probability
density function to the reliability function. We
have

• For the exponential failure distribution

implying a constant failure rate, as mentioned FIGURE: Reliability function for the
earlier. exponential time-to-failure
distribution
 Example 1

• An amplifier has an exponential time-to-failure distribution

with a failure rate of 8% per 1000 hours. What is the reliability
of the amplifier at 5000hours? Find the mean time to failure.
 Example 2

• What is the highest failure rate for a product if it is to have a probability

of survival (i.e., successful operation) of 95% at 4000 hours? Assume
that the time to failure follows an exponential distribution.
 Availability

• The availability of a system at time t is the probability that the

system will be up and running at time t. To improve availability,
maintenance procedures are incorporated, which may include
periodic or preventive maintenance or condition-based
maintenance. An availability index is defined as
 Availability

• Downtime may consist of active repair time, administrative time (processing of

necessary paperwork), and logistic time (waiting time due to lack of parts). It is
observed that maintainability is an important factor in influencing availability.
Through design it is possible to increase the reliability and hence operational
probability of a system. Further, downtime can be reduced through adequate
maintenance plans. For a steady-state system, denoting the mean time to repair
(MTTR) to include all the various components of downtime, we have

• In the situation when the time-to-failure distribution is exponential (with a failure

rate λ) and the time-to-repair distribution is also exponential (with a repair rate
μ), the availability is given by μ /(λ + μ).
 SYSTEM RELIABILITY

• Most products are made up of a number of components. The reliability of

each component and the configuration of the system consisting of these
components determines the system reliability (i.e., the reliability of the
product).
• Although product design, manufacture, and maintenance influence
reliability, improving reliability is largely the domain of design.
• One common approach for increasing the reliability of the system is
through redundance in design, which is usually achieved by placing
components in parallel: As long as one component operates, the system
operates.
• Here we demonstrate how to compute system reliability for systems that
have components in series, in parallel, or both.
 Systems with Components in Series

• Figure shows a system with three components

(A, B, and C) in series. For the system to
operate, each component must operate. It is
assumed that the components operate
independent of each other (i.e., the failure of one A B C
component has no influence on the failure of any
other component).
• In general, if there are n components in series, FIGURE:
System with components in
where the reliability of the ith component is series.
denoted by Ri, the system reliability is
 Example 3

• A module of a satellite monitoring system has 500 components in series.

The reliability of each component is 0.999. Find the reliability of the
module. If the number of components in series is reduced to 200, what is
the reliability of the module?
 Systems with Components in Series

• Use of the Exponential Model If the system components can be

assumed to have a time to failure given by the exponential
distribution and each component has a constant failure rate, we
can compute the system reliability, failure rate, and mean time
to failure.
• As noted earlier, when the components are in the chance-failure
phase, the assumption of a constant failure rate should be
justified.
 Systems with Components in Series

• Suppose that the system has n components in series, each with

exponentially distributed time-to-failure with failure rates λ1, λ2, … λn . The
system reliability is found as the product of the component reliabilities:

• implies that the time to failure of the system is exponentially distributed

with an equivalent failure rate of σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝜆𝑖 . Thus, if each component that fails
is replaced immediately by another that has the same failure rate, the mean
time to failure for the system is given by
 Systems with Components in Series

• When all components in series have an identical failure rate,

say λ, the MTTF for the system is given by
 Example 4
• The automatic focus unit of a television camera has 10 components in series.
Each component has an exponential time-to-failure distribution with a constant
failure rate of 0.05 per 4000 hours. What is the reliability of each component after
2000 hours of operation? Find the reliability of the automatic focus unit for 2000
hours of operation. What is its mean time-to-failure?
 Example 5
• Refer to Example 4 concerning the automatic focus unit of a television
camera, which has 10 similar components in series. It is desired for the
focus unit to have a reliability of 0.95 after 2000 hours of operation. What
would be the mean time to failure of the individual components?
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• System reliability can be improved by placing
components in parallel. The components are A
redundant; the system operates as long as at
least one of the components operates. The only
time the system fails is when all the parallel B
components fail.
• Figure demonstrates an example of a system C
with three components (A, B, and C) in
parallel.
• All components are assumed to operate
simultaneously.
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• Suppose that we have n components in parallel, with the
reliability of the ith component denoted by Ri, i=1, 2, ..., n.
• Assuming that the components operate randomly and
independently of each other, the probability of failure of each
component is given by Fi = 1- Ri. Now, the system fails only if
all the components fail. Thus, the probability of system failure
is
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• Thus, the probability of system failure is
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• Use of the Exponential Model If the time to failure of each
component can be modeled by the exponential distribution, each
with a constant failure rate λi, i= 1, ..., n, the system reliability,
assuming independence of component operation, is given by

• In the special case where all components have the same failure rate
λ, the system reliability is given by
 Systems with Components in Parallel
• the mean time to failure for the system with n identical
components in parallel, assuming that each failed component is
immediately replaced by an identical component, is given by
 Example 6
• Find the reliability of the system shown with three components (A, B, and
C) in parallel. The reliabilities of A, B, and C are 0.95, 0.92, and 0.90,
respectively.

• Note that the system reliability is much higher than that of the individual
components. Designers can increase system reliability by placing more
components in parallel, but the cost of the additional components
necessitates a trade-off between the two objectives.
 Example 7
• For the system shown in Figure, determine the
system reliability for 2000 hours of operation, A
and find the mean time to failure.
• Assume that all three components have an
B
identical time-to-failure distribution that is
exponential, with a constant failure rate of
0.0005/ hour. C
• What is the mean time to failure of each
component? If it is desired for the system to
have a mean time to failure of 4000 hours,
what should the mean time to failure be for
each component?
 Example 7

• By placing three identical components in parallel, the system MTTF has been increased by
about 83.3%.
Example 7
 Systems with Components in Series and in Parallel

• Complex systems often consist of components that are both in

series and in parallel.
• Reliability calculations are based on the concepts discussed
previously, assuming that the components operate
independently.
 Example 8

• Find the reliability of the eight-

component system shown in
Figure; some components are in A1 A2 B1

series and some are in parallel. The B2 C1

reliabilities of the components are
A3 A4 B3
as follows: RA1 = 0.92, RA2 = 0.90,
RA3 = 0.88, RA4 = 0.96, RB1 = 0.95,
RB2 = 0.90, RB3 = 0.92, and RC1 =
0.93.
Example 8
 Example 9

• Find the system failure rate and the mean time to failure for the
eight component system shown in previous Figure of example
8. The failure rates (number of units per hour) for the
components are as follows: λA1 = 0.0006, λA2 = 0.0045, λA3 =
0.0035, λA4 = 0.0016, λB1 = 0.0060, λB2 = 0.0060, λB3 = 0.0060,
and λC1 = 0.0050.
Example 9