Attachment 0
Attachment 0
Ares(2018)1755776 - 31/03/2018
Deliverable D6.4
Foundations for well integrity and risk
assessment
Executive summary
The aim of the GeoWell project is to develop reliable, cost effective and environmentally safe
technologies for improved productivity and lifetime of high-temperature geothermal wells. As
part of this, a framework that can be applied to risk assessment and management is developed
and described in this report. The document constitutes a basis for discussions relating to
regulations, guidelines/standards and industry best practice, thus providing a foundation for a
common approach to geothermal risk assessment and well integrity.
Current European Union (EU) legislation related to geothermal wells and geothermal energy
is reviewed. Even though geothermal energy is defined in EC (European Commission)
Directives, the specific implementation and legislation vary greatly between different regions
across Europe. It has been suggested by others that the legislative and regulatory framework
should be harmonized and that this can be led by the EU. A step towards such harmonization
could be through the development of a geothermal well protocol, providing guidance on how
risk assessment with a focus on well integrity should be conducted for different types of
geothermal wells for the well life-cycle. The summary of relevant legislation/standards to the
geothermal industry offers a basis for understanding the main concerns that need to be
addressed by risk assessment and/or management activities, such as gas emissions,
operational and occupational safety, and environmental hazards.
In the development of a framework for assessment and management of geothermal well risks,
certain requirements should be fulfilled. This document outlines the general characteristics of
such a framework, reviews what data is necessary and which well integrity considerations are
relevant throughout the life-cycle of a geothermal well, and provides the necessary phases and
activities in a risk management process. It is suggested that a future protocol should result in
a comprehensive, transparent and verifiable risk assessment and management practice during
all phases of the (high-temperature) geothermal well life.
The overall approach to risk assessment and management for geothermal wells is not
fundamentally different from other comparable industries. However, the assessment context,
influenced in part by prevailing legislation determining issues of concern and mandating
requirements differs between countries, depending on how geothermal energy is defined and
hence how it is regulated. A shift towards a common definition and regulation for geothermal
wells across the EU could also represent a first step towards a more cohesive approach to risk
assessment. The establishment of a common definition for well barriers and associated well
barrier elements, would in the same way improve geothermal well integrity management.
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Contents
1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 6
Background ..................................................................................................... 6
Objectives ........................................................................................................ 6
What is a geothermal well protocol? ................................................................ 7
2 Concepts and principles ...................................................................................... 8
Definition of well integrity ................................................................................. 8
Risk management principles ............................................................................ 9
The precautionary principle .................................................................... 9
ALARP ................................................................................................... 9
Cost-benefit ............................................................................................ 9
Definitions of geothermal energy in legislation ............................................... 10
3 Review of legislation .......................................................................................... 10
Different European Union legislative terms .................................................... 10
Review of relevant geothermal legislation ...................................................... 11
4 Requirements for Risk Assessment and Management .................................... 15
Risk Assessment characteristics.................................................................... 15
Data requirements ......................................................................................... 16
Well integrity considerations for the life-cycle of a well ................................... 17
Recommendations for a geothermal well risk assessment and management protocol
18
Assessment context ............................................................................. 20
Risk identification and quick screening ................................................. 22
Risk analysis ........................................................................................ 23
Risk evaluation ..................................................................................... 24
Monitoring............................................................................................. 24
Risk reduction....................................................................................... 25
Communication with stakeholders ........................................................ 25
Continuous risk review.......................................................................... 26
5 Bibliography ........................................................................................................ 28
Appendix A Casing design .................................................................................. 34
A.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 34
A.2 Establishing context ....................................................................................... 34
A.3 Risk identification ........................................................................................... 35
A.4 Risk analysis.................................................................................................. 37
A.5 Risk evaluation .............................................................................................. 38
A.6 Risk monitoring and treatment ....................................................................... 38
Appendix B Italian high-temperature geothermal guideline.............................. 39
B.1 Air quality ....................................................................................................... 39
B.2 Noise ............................................................................................................. 40
B.3 Surface water and groundwater ..................................................................... 40
B.4 Land subsidence............................................................................................ 40
B.5 Induced seismicity ......................................................................................... 41
B.6 Visual impact ................................................................................................. 41
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Tables
Table 1. Description of different types of unilateral acts of EU secondary law ............ 10
Table 2. Summary of the main concerns of legislation ................................................ 12
Table 3. Relevant EU directives for geothermal industry ............................................ 43
Figures
Figure 1 The role of this document related to regulations and industry practices. ......... 7
Figure 2. ALARP principle adapted from NORSOK Z-013 [60] ..................................... 9
Figure 3. Different phases in the life-cycle of a well (modified after [4]) ...................... 20
Figure 4 The proposed framework for risk assessment and management of
geothermal wells [5] ........................................................................................ 22
Figure 5. Screening and selection of methods in the risk assessment framework....... 24
Figure 6. Risk management process, adapted from DESTRESS [46]......................... 26
Figure 7: Summary of factors to consider for establishment of context ....................... 35
Figure 8: Example of failure modes for a casing ......................................................... 35
Figure 9: Transition from a normal to a failed state (casing rupture) for the casing ..... 36
Figure 10: Example of a risk matrix ............................................................................ 37
Vocabulary
ALARA/ALARP As low as reasonably achievable/As low as reasonably practicable
Hazard Potential source of risk
HAZID Hazard identification
Measure Plan or course of action to reduce risk (physical or organisational)
Monitoring Continuous or time-lapse measurement of risk indicator
Protocol Procedure for carrying out risk assessment and management of
(HT) geothermal wells
Risk Effect of uncertainty on outcomes [1]; consequences of the
activities, with associated uncertainty [2]
Risk assessment Investigation into the effects that uncertainty has on the
consequences of potential fluid leakage. The intention of a
quantitative risk assessment is to support decision-making by
providing numbers on how much effect uncertainty has on the
consequences.
Root cause The basis cause of a hazard or risk
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1 Introduction
Background
Description of the project,
New concepts for high-temperature geothermal wells are developed in the GeoWell project
addressing the lifetime of the wells, to improve the economic viability and environmental
friendliness of geothermal projects. The project objective is to develop reliable, cost effective
and environmentally safe well completion and monitoring technologies; such as optimized well
designs involving corrosion resistant materials, optimized cementing procedures, and
compensation for thermal strains between casing and the well. The project also targets the
development of methods and tools to assess the main life stages of the well, and manage the
associated risks.
Risk assessment in the petroleum industry is described in several standards. The practices
described in these standards is considered to be at the highest quality level, in particular those
for offshore petroleum exploitation in Europe. Thus, it is considered to be desirable to bring
relevant practices in the petroleum industry to the geothermal industry. The New Zealand Code
of Practice for deep geothermal wells [3] is commonly referred to as the most advanced
standard within geothermal wells. For example, it was used as the basis for The African Union
Code of Practice for Geothermal Drilling [4], adapting it to the conditions of the geothermal
industry in Africa. The geothermal industry relies to a degree on the practices in the petroleum
industry, primarily onshore practices and standards provided by the American Petroleum
Institute (API). It is of interest to also consider the place of petroleum approaches to risk
management in a geothermal context.
In [5], [6] and [7], have gone through the common uses of risk assessment methods and in
particular quantitative risk assessments.
The applicability of the framework described in [7] needs to be put in context with existing
regulations; and exemplified further for practical use. This document, i.e. “Foundations for well
integrity and risk management”, attempts to create a foundation for the development of a
European protocol for Risk assessment and Well integrity in geothermal wells, which means it
is a recommendation in compliance with European and domestic regulations.
Objectives
The objective of the document is to provide building blocks for a protocol for risk assessment
and management of geothermal wells. To this end an elaborated assessment and
management framework has been provided which can be applied in a “recipe”-based manner
to deep high temperature (HT) geothermal wells (i.e. wells reaching temperatures required for
electricity production and requiring multiple casing strings) within the EU member states. The
presented building blocks are meant to be a basis for possible future regulation on risk
assessment and management of HT geothermal wells. While the presented risk assessment
and management framework is generally applicable also to oil & gas wells, the specific relation
to geothermal wells is presented in the form of addressing legislation specific to this industry,
which is an integral part of the assessment context. The generality of the foundations
presented here does not permit covering all aspects unique to HT geothermal wells, but does
provide some relevant examples throughout. Issues that concern geothermal wells in general,
may also apply to HT geothermal wells.
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Previous studies in the GeoWell project have highlighted the lack of any widely used guidelines
for how to perform risk assessments for geothermal wells. It is the aim of this document to
provide a first step towards a more uniform approach towards geothermal risk assessment and
well integrity.
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3 Review of legislation
To understand what is needed to comply with EU requirements, it is useful to review legislation
and standards relevant to the geothermal industry. This chapter aims to provide a summary of
legislation/standards that are relevant to the context of the GeoWell project, i.e. improving well
integrity at high temperatures. The goal is to understand the main concerns of the
legislations/standards that need to be addressed by risk assessment activities. Note that the
intention is not to list all the international, national and regional legislation that might be relevant
to the geothermal industry.
i) Primary law: founding Treaties that establish the EU and determine the legal
framework within which the EU institutions implement European policies.
ii) Secondary law: legal instruments based on the Treaties that include unilateral
secondary law (regulations, directives, decisions, opinions and recommendations,
and "atypical" acts e.g. communications and recommendations, and white and
green papers), and conventions and agreements.
iii) Supplementary law: elements of law not provided for by the Treaties such as Court
of Justice case-law, international law and general principles of law.
Based on the description of different EU law sources, secondary law seems to have most
relevance to the scope of this report. Table 1 presents different types of secondary law [17]
that are listed in Article 288 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU [18].
Table 1. Description of different types of unilateral acts of EU secondary law
Term Description
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of the European Parliament and of the Council [37], or a targeted risk-based assessment
(following the methodology of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93) should be performed
focusing solely on aquatic ecotoxicity and on human toxicity via the aquatic environment. The
ultimate goal is to achieve concentrations in the marine environment near background values
for naturally occurring substances and close to zero for man-made synthetic substances.
Also from WFD (and Environmental quality standards Directive), to set a maximum annual
average concentration for setting chemical quality standards, Member States shall set
appropriate safety factors consistent with the nature and quality of the available data and the
guidance given in technical guidance document in support of Commission Directive 93/67/EEC
on risk assessment for new notified substances [38] and Commission Regulation (EC) No
1488/94 on risk assessment for existing substances [39] and the safety factors set out in the
water framework Directive.
In order to protect the environment as a whole, and human health in particular, detrimental
concentrations of harmful pollutants in groundwater must be avoided, prevented or reduced.
Similar to water framework Directive, risk assessment procedures required by 91/414/EEC or
98/8/EC.
In order to ensure a high-level protection of the environment, precautionary actions need to be
taken for certain projects because of their vulnerability to major accidents, and/or natural
disasters (e.g. flooding or earthquakes). According to EIA Directive [40], a description of the
vulnerability of such projects to risks of major accidents or disasters and their adverse effects
on human health, cultural heritage or the environment needs to be provided. To meet the
requirements of this Directive, relevant information available and obtained through risk
assessments pursuant to EU/national legislation may be used. Where appropriate, this
description should include measures envisaged to prevent or mitigate the significant adverse
effects of such events on the environment.
For assessing damages of the projects to land as defined in ELD, it is desirable to use risk
assessment procedures to determine to what extent human health is likely to be adversely
affected [28].
According to wastes management from extractive industries Directive, a waste facility shall be
classified, among other conditions, under category A (i.e. waste facilities with stricter
environmental regulations), if a failure or incorrect operation could give rise to a major accident,
based on a risk assessment considering factors such as the location and the environmental
impact of the waste facility [29].
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sections and the framework presented in D6.3, a geothermal well risk assessment should
possess the following characteristics:
Be risk-based, i.e. consider both the probability of an event occurring and the impact
of such an occurrence.
Cover all phases of a traditional risk management process (including monitoring and
risk treatment).
Be reasonable and proportionate for the threats profile (e.g. according to ALARP
principle).
Use readily available data.
Address data, information and model uncertainty.
The focus in this document is on well integrity, thus related to this, a risk assessment should
cover:
Assessment of the well integrity (technical, operational and organizational) during its
life cycle.
Both production and injection wells (doublet).
The source, pathway and receptor components.
The most relevant consequences to consider are:
Serious damage to human health, safety and the environment (ecosystem), and in
particular related to substances mentioned in the legislation (see section 3.2).
Impact on equipment/system performance.
Communication and reputation.
Financial.
Whether the Geothermal well contains either hazardous waste or dangerous
substances.
Data requirements
Site-specific data are needed to properly support the activities related to risk assessment and
risk management. The actual collection may already start during the exploration phase, well
before the development of the geothermal project starts and will continue during the project
development. The outcome of the risk assessment may require additional data acquisition to
reduce remaining uncertainty. Monitoring data will be gathered during the operation of the
geothermal (HT) well (see also 4.4.5).
Data needs relate to:
Overall well design and well barrier concept
Detailed description of the well casing, cement and completion
Well barrier properties
Near-well rocks and sediments (cores, log data, seismic data)
THMC (Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical) properties of rocks and sediments
Potential pathways to receptors of the fluids
Production forecasts
Composition of production fluids with physico-chemical properties
Temperature and pressure
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corrosion. Furthermore, the cement placement is also essential to cement integrity, where
proper hole-cleaning and casing centralization are important considerations.
In the production phase, the risk of corrosion is one of the main concerns due to a greater
exposure to formation fluids. Another important aspect is that until the production commences,
the well is the responsibility of the drilling department. The change in responsibility when
moving into another life-cycle phase, implies the importance of a proper handover, to ensure
that all important well-specific concerns, including those relating to well integrity, are
transferred to the production department. This pertains not only to data transfer, but also to
training and re-evaluation of the risk assessments conducted during the previous life-cycle
phases, involving personnel from the production department.
The challenges in the abandonment phase can often relate to the fact that data on the well
has been handed over multiple times, and gaps in data and/or inadequate handover may lead
to poor decisions being made relating to risk management and well integrity. Issues, such as
sustained casing pressure, that have been circumvented through dispensations in the
production phase, may cause problems in the abandonment phase when attempting to verify
barrier integrity, as restoration of e.g. annulus barriers is difficult [42]. An updated well
evaluation, including cement bond logs etc., and abandoning the well in accordance with local
regulations, as is industry practice, can help overcome such challenges.
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be used for decision support for example in a design phase to balance different considerations.
Even though one usually focuses on reducing the probability and/or consequences of negative
outcomes in a risk assessment, there are also situations where reducing the probability of
negative outcomes will also reduce the probability of favourable outcomes which might be
valued higher. In such situations one might want to maintain the risk, even if the measure has
no direct cost associated with it. Such a focus would be included in the ISO-definition of risk,
although it would be more commonly referred to as decision and risk analysis. Considering the
precautionary principle, a balanced view of the effect of uncertainty should only be taken when
it is accepted by all parties, such as if all negative consequences are suffered by the company.
The risk assessment process proposed here is not intended to give a complete solution for a
protocol, but to describe how to arrive at solutions which are consistent with a risk-based
approach. Such an approach must include necessary elements given by the national and
European regulations, such as directives related to water pollution, mining laws, other
environmental laws and power-, work-, operational- and environmental permits (see chapter
3).
Objective
The purpose of the present proposal is to provide recommendations for a future European
protocol on the risk assessment and management of high-temperature geothermal wells. The
objective of the protocol is to ascertain that fluids cannot unintendedly escape from the well
bore and adversely impact the environment, human beings, utilities and resources. The future
protocol should result in a comprehensive, transparent and verifiable risk assessment and
management during all phases of the (HT) geothermal well life.
Scope
The risk assessment and management protocol is primarily directed to the function of the well
including completion, wellhead, safety valves and rocks and sediments which are directly
exposed to the wellbore. Information on rocks and sediments in a wider region around the well
are necessary if fluids may escape from the well in the subsurface and on the conditions at the
surface including population density, land use etc.
The proposed protocol deals with the whole chain of events which could result in unintended
leakage of fluids from the well bore and its consequences for the environment, human beings,
utilities and resources. The emphasis in GeoWell however is on the integrity of the well and
less on the possible consequences of an unintended release of fluids.
The recommendations will suggest guidelines for risk assessment of geothermal wells, their
monitoring and measures to reduce risk. The proposed protocol will thus address the risk
management next to the risk assessment.
The proposal will try to establish a practical level of detail of the protocol but without becoming
overly prescriptive.
The proposed protocol will in principle deal with all phases of the geothermal project life but
most emphasis will be placed on the construction and production phases of the geothermal
well life-cycle (see Figure 3).
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The details of a risk assessment depend on the objectives. Early in a well planning stage the
main focus would be on whether there are any showstoppers related to drilling, construction
and operation of the well. At such a stage where information is limited to considerations related
to the area in general (geographical or regional concerns) and general subsurface conditions
(related to well integrity and well control), a company-specific checklist is a resource effective
method to focus on feasibility and safety. Similarly, when different well concepts (alternatives
for how the well will be constructed) have been identified, a more detailed checklist covering
issues related to pressures, well barriers, hydraulics, friction etc. can be performed.
For a chosen well concept, a more complete risk assessment can be made. In the petroleum
industry it is common to use risk matrices where issues are identified and evaluated in coarse
scales in both probability and consequence dimensions. The consequences can be divided
into different dimensions, such as HSE (e.g. health, safety, environment and reputation), cost
(and/or time), and well performance objectives. This assessment can be used to give an overall
score to the concept, identify the main risk drivers related to the concept and in general be
used in the decision-making process. Detailed assessments are made when well design is
almost finished (e.g. 80% finished). Then particular challenges can more appropriately be
investigated with a more in-depth risk analysis using quantitative methods.
In the GeoWell report D6.3 a framework for risk assessment has been proposed [7] which will
be included in the current proposed protocol. The framework for risk assessment of geothermal
wells uses ISO 31000 [1] as a point of departure (Figure 4) and consists of the following main
steps:
Establishment of the context;
Risk assessment sub-divided into risk identification, analysis and evaluation;
Monitoring and risk reduction;
Continuous communication with stakeholders and risk review.
In performing risk assessment and management activities of (HT) geothermal wells GeoWell
recommends following the individual steps of the proposed framework. A rudimentary example
is provided in the Appendix A.
Assessment context
The first step in the risk assessment and management process is to define the context of the
risk assessment and management which is specific to the geothermal wells to be developed,
operated, plugged and abandoned. The context deals with the specific objectives of the risk
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assessment and management, the acceptance criteria to be evaluated, the well barrier concept
with system boundaries, the site-specific geological and geographical setting and resources
needed.
Objectives describe what the risk assessment and management is aiming at in securing the
integrity of the well barriers and minimizing damage from fluids leaking from the well. It should
include any company policies relevant to the risk context, regulations or requirements as to
how the risk assessment is conducted or what it must contain as a minimum.
Related to geothermal well integrity, there are several activities related to designing and
maintaining well integrity. In the petroleum standard NORSOK D-010, [9], a list of documented
activities that should be performed to ensure well integrity is provided, which includes design
of well, assessment of the risk related to well integrity or well control, activity programs and
procedures. The objective of the geothermal well integrity risk assessment will typically relate
to one of these activities.
A thorough well design is important to make sure all components can withstand loads and
stresses covering all the life cycle phases of the well. For well integrity this will focus on well
barriers. This should be performed for new wells, wells that change purpose (e.g. from
exploration to production), or other changes to the original scope of the design. The New
Zealand code of practice [3] provides recommendations for well design in a geothermal
context.
A good understanding of the well barrier concept is essential for the execution of the risk
assessment and management protocol, in particular for the identification of possible failure
modes. Defining the well barriers for the activities under consideration is important to specify
the scope of analyses related to well integrity. This involves selecting sets of well elements
that together can form an envelope which should be sufficient for its purposes, i.e. prevent
leakage. It is useful to prepare it in the form of a well barrier schematic (WBS) to easily
reference, communicate and identify operations or failures which may threaten the well
integrity. Through the risk assessment, the well barrier elements should be described together
with their function in the barrier, acceptance criteria and verification/monitoring method.
In addition to risk assessment of the well barriers, [9] recommends an analysis such as safe
job analysis should be performed for new or non-standard operations, operations using new
or modified equipment, or operations that are considered hazardous or could have increased
risk compared to when the activity has been performed previously.
In addition to the performance of activities such as drilling and intervention, the well integrity
must also consider wear from production or other states where no equipment is in the well. To
preserve the integrity a maintenance program for the well barrier elements should be made.
Some elements will have continuous monitoring, where indications of failures can be quickly
identified. Other elements should have a prescriptive maintenance program. Periodic
inspection (or test) intervals (how often they are performed) can be based on reliability data
and field conditions that may influence reliability over time.
Acceptance criteria are to be defined which indicate the level of acceptable risk resulting from
leakage of fluids from the well. They can either be quantitative or qualitative, relate to the
possible damage resulting from leakage or can be indicators of increasing leakage risk (e.g.
pressure, temperature, corrosion etc.). The acceptance criteria must often be defined by the
company, as few are given in the legislation (see Chapter 3).
The system boundaries will define which elements of the well zone and which phases of the
well life-cycle are included or excluded in the risk assessment.
The setting of the well is very important in terms of the subsurface rocks and sediments
penetrated by the well, nearby subsurface activities and the surface conditions including
population, protected water resources natural reserves and built-up areas.
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Another important factor that will impact the subsequent steps is the availability of resources
to successfully execute the risk assessment and management. This includes budget and
personnel resources, competence and skills, and data and information concerning the well in
question, as well as any resources that could be used to infer failure statistics, either in-house
or external databases.
Figure 4 The proposed framework for risk assessment and management of geothermal wells [7]
particular those that lead to damage to the environment, human beings, built-up areas and
subsurface or surface resources. This complete set of activities is referred to as risk
identification. Special attention is to be directed to the occurrence of cascading events resulting
in adverse consequences.
The identified risks are qualitatively or semi-quantitatively characterized in terms of probability
and severity of the impact. This offers the possibility for ranking and screening the various
risks. A first evaluation of possible risk treatment and its expected reducing effect on the risk
level is to be included.
An appropriate method for risk identification and screening is to be selected or is prescribed
by inhouse company risk management procedures. Various methods based on expert
judgment and supporting databases are available, which are categorized on the basis of
several characteristics (Figure 5). These categories are qualitative/quantitative, resource
requirements, complexity, and degree of uncertainty. The result is a method selection basis
for risk identification techniques.
As it is important to communicate the risk efficiently, representing the risk picture through visual
means is recommended. Thus, using simple visual methods such as risk matrices and/or bow-
tie diagrams are useful, even if other methods are used.
The identification should consider the ability of the elements defined in the context to perform
their defined function considering information such as best practice documents, company
procedures, historical data or lessons from previous wells, expert knowledge, and
consequences expressed in regional, national and EU legislation (e.g. those mentioned in
section 3.2 and Appendix B). For high temperature wells it is of particular importance to
consider temperature related mechanisms that may lead to new failure modes or
consequences that are less common or not relevant for low temperature wells. This could be
new components in the produced fluid, plastic behaviour of the casing or severe blowouts.
Keeping track of identified risks and their treatment from the start of the life of the well is
important.
Risk analysis
On the basis of the criticality of the identified hazards and risks, quantitative analysis is to be
performed in a staged manner from simple to complex models. The level of detail of the
analysis very much depends on the nature of the risks to be quantified. In some instances, a
‘back-of-the-envelope’ quantitative analysis is sufficient; in other situations one may need to
use sophisticated coupled THMC-models. Choices are to be made whether deterministic or
probabilistic approaches are required.
Depending on the objective the hazards are to be quantified in terms of resulting fluid leakage
(hazard analysis). In other type of analyses fluid migration paths need to be quantified leading
to the exposure to geothermal fluids (exposure analysis). Finally, the effects of exposure to
various receptors (e.g. environment, potable water, human beings) can be quantified (effects
analysis). The temporal and spatial scales of the impact of the hazards on the release of fluids,
exposure to fluids and effects to receptors are to be characterized. Some consequences may
be local and sudden whereas others are more diffusive over a larger area.
A lot of site-specific information including the characterization of uncertainties is required to
execute a quantitative analysis (see Section 4.2). Before addressing uncertainties, one may
perform sensitivity analysis to identify the most relevant parameters in the quantitative risk
analysis. The representativeness of the information must also be considered. For example, the
risk in extreme temperature wells may be poorly estimated if relying on data and models from
lower temperature wells.
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Appropriate risk analysis methods need to be selected which fit the requirements of the
assessment context, which includes the specific objective of the risk analysis and the
availability of adequate expertise. Also, the availability of relevant data and the complexity of
the problem are of importance in selecting the appropriate methodology (Figure 5). At times
regulations and company rules demand for specific risk analysis methodologies.
Risk evaluation
The preparation work for the risk evaluation or risk assessment is covered by the risk
identification and analysis described in the previous two sections. In the risk evaluation the
integrated results of the analysis will be compared to the criteria and indicators for risk
acceptance and a conclusion on compliance will be drawn.
Any critical uncertainties for the outcome of the evaluation will be identified and follow-up work
may be defined to reduce these uncertainties (see also section 4.4.6).
Monitoring
Monitoring provides evidence for the integrity of the well and the absence of unacceptable
damage to protected goods. A well monitoring plan is to be established with monitoring
parameters which are adjusted to the performance and risk criteria, and associated indicators.
Suitable monitoring technologies with monitoring locations, durations and sampling
frequencies are part of the plan. Monitoring parameters may include the quality of the well
barriers, fluid production and injection rates, fluid composition, pressure, temperature, leakage
detection and impact of fluid leakage, which can be measured continuously or in a time-lapse
mode.
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The well monitoring plan is established before operations start. Some parts of the monitoring
plan might start already before the start of operations in the case where baseline data are
needed.
The output from monitoring is regularly verified for conformance with the expected
performance of the well. In case the observed behaviour is deviating from the expected
behaviour, follow-up actions may be necessary. Depending on the nature of the anomaly, this
needs to be communicated with the state authorities and actions to mitigate or remediate
adverse consequences may need to be started. Contingency monitoring may be necessary
and the monitoring plan is to be updated. If the deviating behaviour has been resolved, the
contingency monitoring may be ended.
Risk reduction
To reduce and keep the risks at ALARA levels risk reduction measures may be emplaced.
Developing these measures already starts in the phase of risk identification. Once risks have
been identified (see section 4.4.2), potential reduction measures can be assigned to individual
risks.
Preference is given to preventive measures, which in most cases are implemented before
the start of operations. A large part of the measures can be adopted in the design of the well.
Additional preventive measures may be implemented during operations for example because
new rules for material usage or preventive maintenance apply.
In case monitoring results point to deviating behaviour, one may deploy additional corrective
measures, to mitigate the risks. In case damage by leaking fluids would occur remedial
measures may need to be implemented to restore the damage.
In petroleum there is a high focus on blowouts, and a blowout contingency plan is required [9].
Blowouts also occur in geothermal wells if the conditions are sufficient (i.e. high pressure
formations and/or high temperatures). High consequence events should be addressed (almost
irrespective of probability per the precautionary principle), with regards to e.g. layout, well
design, stopping method (kill strategy) and emergency response responsibilities. Simulations
of the rate and requirements to stop the blowout for the most difficult scenarios should be
performed to ensure the well can be controlled.
As part of mitigating measures, it is important to have the ability to employ them to desired
effect, such as sufficient fluids available to quench a well, sufficient area to contain any leakage
or waste and identification of soil areas which should be treated. This may create a larger
footprint on the area around the well, and must as such be evaluated against other
environmental concerns. Measures should also include organizational aspects for rapid
response and minimizing worker exposure (such as responsibilities, evacuation plans, fire
fighting plans, personal protective equipment etc.).
Communication with stakeholders
Continual communication with and engagement of stakeholders is an integral part of risk
assessment and management from the development of the geothermal project and onwards
to operations and abandonment. Confidence in the safety of the well-related activities is key
to making decisions during the realisation of the project. Different groups of stakeholders can
be identified with different interests, i.e. geothermal energy company (business case),
regulator and inspector (compliance with safety and environment riles), local public (safety and
environment), local authorities (socio-economic wellbeing) and local companies (interference
with their business). Proper communication and engagement requires a strategy and
implementation plan.
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The geothermal project owner will have to report on the outcome of the risk assessment and
the actions on monitoring and risk management to the state authorities. Regular updates on
the safe performance of geothermal well activities including outcomes of monitoring, events
occurring during operations and follow-up actions, maintenance activities etc.
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information is important. Changes may introduce new risks that must be assessed, but often
overlooked are consequences where implicit assumptions originally were made. Thus, the
holistic overview gained in the planning stage should be used to describe how changes are
dealt with.
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in the reservoir fluids, or long-term temperature changes. For the latter, an example of a
transition process to a failed state is shown.
Figure 9: Transition from a normal to a failed state (casing rupture) for the casing
Depending on the complexity of the phenomena (cause) leading to the failed state, various
techniques may be applied. Fault-tree analysis can be useful when the transition to a failed
state is conditioned on a wide range of factors, or where the system being analysed is complex
in nature. The purpose of this process is not only to identify the causes, but also to help
highlight the particular system parameters (such as casing layer material and temperature, and
thermal expansion) that need to be accounted and designed for.
No matter how many definitions are used to describe concepts in risk management, there is
some freedom in what are considered causes, processes and failure modes depending on the
view and level of the analysis. The important part is to ensure consistency in their treatment
and that all relevant occurrences are included in the analysis that follows. This is one reason
why the selection of methods to be used in the analysis is relevant to be screened in advance.
Typically initiated from a table, database and/or brainstorming, further risk identification will
depend on the assessment context. For assessments related to specific operations, it is useful
to go through the planned procedures, as well as any relevant contingency procedures, to
identify factors that may influence the barrier elements, such as the casing. Examples would
typically be factors influencing temperature changes, maximum temperature and pressures.
Although prevention of failures is preferred, and thus the focus is often on the probability of
failure, the context will often define acceptance criteria in terms of consequences given a
failure. The relevant regulations (some of which are listed in Appendix D) could for example
impose requirements for the types of consequences to be considered, or require that specific
types of risk analyses be applied, such as an environmental risk assessment. Consequences
can often be divided into well objective, cost and health, safety, environment and reputation.
While many of the vulnerable elements to consider are given by the assessment context, the
possible paths from failed barrier element to impact on the vulnerable element as well as the
escalation of failures must be identified. An example of this could be the location of nearby
groundwater and possible pathways from the well, if a concern is leakage to this groundwater
resource. HSE risks are always part of the considered consequences. There are a number of
risks that could impair the health, safety and environment throughout the life-cycle of a well.
The leakage of toxic gases, such as H2S and CO2 (large exposure) is one such risk to health.
Noise, operations involving exposure to falling objects, massive moving parts, terrain and
ground conditions, weather conditions, chemical substances, etc. are other examples. Brine
ponds, disposed cuttings and air pollution from drilling equipment are examples of
environmental risks [41].
In the risk identification stage, coarse judgments are used to screen and select the most
important risks to be further analysed in the subsequent assessment steps. As such, the
causes and failure modes are often used as a basis for listing risk elements in a risk matrix,
where probability of occurrence and consequences for different dimensions are divided into
categories. An example is provided in Figure 10.
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the surface or pollute underground resources. Models for the flow of these fluids will be able
to estimate how much will be able to reach the areas of interest as well as how long it will take.
Consequences are generally more difficult to quantify than probability of occurrence, because
they are not restricted to one dimension; considering impact on human health, the environment
or monetary loss essentially implies at least three different models of prediction.
Economic loss for the case of a ruptured casing could be assessed by identifying possible
remedial steps required, for different severity levels. These would typically be found in
contingency plans, operational procedures and other planning documents. In such cases, it is
likely that the company has experience with similar, or comparable operations, and has records
of the duration of these. By making assumptions on the required personnel, the estimated time
to perform operations, and allocating costs to both, the main remaining challenge would be
quantifying the uncertainty of each. In the simplest instance, one could use high/medium/low
scenarios, and use e.g. a triangular distribution for each uncertain quantity. A simple model
connecting the quantities could then be realized using a Monte Carlo framework to make
tentative estimates. While similar approaches could be used for other types of consequences,
such as impact on human health, this would be more challenging, as the range of different
types of outcomes is not purely measured on one scale, and there would need to be a wide
range of assumptions related to each. For example, a ruptured casing would likely not in itself
cause impaired human health, but if considering that this leads to a surface leak, the
assessment of what the severity would be would be conditioned on factors such as what is the
leakage rate, what control mechanisms, including warning system would be breached and to
what degree, as well as the number of persons subjected to exposure and at what proximity.
That being said, the analysis should however focus on scenarios that are plausible and
conceivable, and “likely” relative to one another. Data on human tolerance to exposure of
substances such as H2S and CO2 are widely available, so consequence assessments could
start by identifying the non-acceptable exposure levels, and then evaluate whether such levels
could be reached, and under what conditions.
As a part of the analysis, it is also important to consider the assumptions made, and what
uncertainties have not been accounted for. For example, the models and data used should be
analysed in terms of the understanding of the valid domain, representativeness, simplifications
and the implications of assumed independence of events. These aspects can quickly be
forgotten when an engineering model has become close to an industry standard, but are taken
into use in new settings.
continuous monitoring for fluid losses or pressure increases behind the casing, periodical
monitoring with visual inspections utilizing a downhole camera, or limiting the number of
temperature cycles before the design life is exceeded and any extension would have to go
through a new assessment. As mentioned, the risk reducing effect of implementing these
measures should be quantified, or at least estimated. For some measures that do not introduce
any new risks this can be done fairly quickly based on the already performed risk assessment.
However, for other measures such as new technologies or cladding of the casing, the process
should be repeated to identify and estimate the change in risk.
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reduce the release of pollutants into the atmosphere including: i) establishment of reference
emission thresholds in accordance to technological advancements; ii) introduction and
improvement of new/existing on-line emission monitoring systems for air quality; iii) financial
support of R&D on new abatement technologies for other pollutants.
B.2 Noise
Noise can be produced during different phases of construction and operation of geothermal
power plants. Noise relevant to the context of this report are those arising from production and
reinjection wells where noise is produced during the initial setup and construction of drilling
site, and noise produced by drilling operations and testing wells after drilling.
Noise production is classified as a form of pollution by Italian law that defines the maximum
allowed noise levels, how to handle pollution, etc. By law, each municipality must perform an
acoustic mapping and ranking of its local area. The level of noise allowed is regulated
according to the local area (including six classes of land use ranging from hospitals to industrial
areas) and its usage, and different levels are set for night-time and day-time.
Authorizations for temporary activities (such as drilling wells) that might exceed the noise limits
can be requested to local municipalities. After plant construction, all the technologies adopted
in geothermal power plants in Italy hold the noise level below the most restrictive standards of
Class I (i.e. areas with special protection such as hospitals, schools, etc). Emission level, intake
level and quality standard values for this class of land use are 45(day)/35(night) dB(A),
50(day)/40(night) dB(A), and 47(day)/37(night) dB(A), respectively [46].
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B.7 Waste
Geothermal power plants produce both liquid and solid waste, resulting from different activities
such as well construction, operation and maintenance of the plant etc. During well construction,
fluid and solid wastes are produced, such as mud, other fluid additives, cement slurry, diesel
and lubricant, cleaning fluid, geothermal brine, cuttings, excavated earth and rocks, and
industrial waste of different types.
Waste is classified into urban, or industrial waste in the Italian law. Industrial waste is classified
into non-hazardous, which is treated similarly to urban waste, or hazardous. Hazardous and
non-hazardous waste cannot be mixed. Temporary storage of waste is allowed in an area
within the production site, before disposal or recovery, and does not require any authorization.
However, the waste must be disposed or recovered at least quarterly, regardless of the
volume, or whenever a volume of 20 m3 of non-hazardous waste, or 10 m3 of hazardous waste,
is reached. In any case, waste cannot be stored for more than one year. Excavated earth and
rocks from drilling and construction can be reused or disposed.
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