Flood Hazard Mapping of Western part Kathmandu Valley using

QGIS
Abinash Dev*, Anurag Mallik*, Asim Bajracharya, Luna Bajracharya
*
Department of Architecture, Masters in Science in Energy Efficient Building, Pulchowk Campus,
Institute ofEngineering, Tribhuwan University, Nepal

Corresponding Email: [email protected]

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[email protected]

Abstract:
Flood hazard mapping of Kathmandu Valley holds significant importance since the valley has witnessed several flood events
in the past, causing loss of life, damage to property, and disruption of socio-economic activities. This study presents an
approximate Flood hazard mapping of western region of Kathmandu district using a geographic information system (QGIS)
combined with a multiple-criteria decision-analysis-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The integration of various
morphologic, topographic & climatic maps like Elevation map, Slope map, Distance to river map and Topographic Wetness
Index provided a tentative framework for hazard mapping. In the framework of this study, only four criteria were used to
elaborate on hazard mapping. The population going to be affected by flooding was calculated. The western part of
Kathmandu district appeared to be affected most than other parts of valley.

Keywords:
Flood hazard Mapping, QGIS, AHP, TWI, GIS

1. Introduction
Kathmandu Valley, located in Nepal, is a densely populated area with significant cultural, economic, and
historical importance. The valley's topography characterized by its bowl-like structure, makes it particularly
susceptible to flooding during heavy rainfall events. The region experiences a monsoon climate, with heavy
rains concentrated in a few months each year, leading to rapid runoff and potential flooding. Major rivers and
tributaries flowing through the valley, including the Bagmati River, are prone to overflow during intense
rainfall. Rapid urbanization has led to significant changes in land use, with increased impervious surfaces
contributing to reduced natural water absorption and higher flood risks. Encroachment on floodplains and
inadequate urban planning exacerbate the vulnerability of the area to flooding. Kathmandu Valley has
witnessed several flood events in the past, causing loss of life, damage to property, and disruption of socio-
economic activities. These historical events highlight the need for effective flood management and risk
reduction strategies. Flood hazard mapping using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a critical tool for
identifying and visualizing flood-prone areas. It aids in the assessment of flood risks, planning of mitigation
measures, and preparation of emergency response strategies. The primary objective of this project is to
develop a comprehensive flood hazard map for Kathmandu Valley using GIS technology.

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2. Objectives
• To analyze the spatial distribution of flood risks
• To propose effective strategies to mitigate the impact of future flood events.
• To identify and categorize areas within Kathmandu Valley based on their flood risk levels by
analyzing the potential impact of different flood scenarios on human settlements, infrastructure,
land use, slope percentage, elevation and precipitation.
• To analyze past flood events in Kathmandu Valley, identifying patterns and factors contributing
to flooding, which will inform the development of more accurate and reliable flood models.
• To create detailed and user-friendly flood hazard maps using GIS technology, which will be
accessible to decision-makers, planners, and the public for better flood risk communication.
• To incorporate flood risk reduction measures into urban development plans and regulations,
promoting sustainable and resilient urban growth.
• To understand the methodologies for flood hazard mapping and risk assessment that can be
applied to other regions with similar challenges

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3. Methodology
3.1 Data Collection and Integration
To comprehensively understand the topography and terrain of Kathmandu Valley, Digital Elevation Model
(DEM) data were acquired. This data provides crucial insights into the region's elevation variations,
helping to map out its physical landscape accurately. Additionally, hydrological data were collected,
including river and stream networks, historical flood records, and rainfall data (though rainfall data was
not acquired). This information is essential for assessing water flow patterns and potential flood risks.
Land use and land cover data were obtained through satellite imagery from KVDA 2015, offering a
detailed view of how the land is utilized and its coverage. Furthermore, infrastructure data, encompassing
buildings, roads, and other critical infrastructure, were gathered to understand the built environment
within the valley. This integrated data collection approach ensures a holistic understanding of Kathmandu
Valley's geographical and infrastructural characteristics.

3.2 Digitalization and Mapping

In this phase, satellite imagery is processed using QGIS to digitalize and create accurate land cover maps. This
step is crucial for converting raw satellite images into usable geospatial data, which can then be analyzed
to provide insights into land use patterns and changes over time. By employing QGIS, a powerful open-
source geographic information system, the study ensures precise and reliable mapping of the region's land
cover, facilitating thorough analysis and decision-making.

3.3 Quantitative and Spatial Analysis

In this stage, spatial analysis is conducted using GIS tools to perform spatial overlay, flood hotspot analysis,
and apply statistical methods like weighted overlay. These techniques are employed to identify areas at
high risk of flooding. The quantitative assessment involves analyzing flood risk based on various factors
such as topography, elevation, and the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). By integrating these factors
into a comprehensive weighted risk map, the analysis provides a detailed understanding of flood-prone
areas, enabling better-informed decision-making and risk management.

3.4 Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment

The flood hazard and risk assessment process involve categorizing flood-prone areas based on weighted
models. This categorization helps to identify regions at varying levels of flood risk. The assessment also
evaluates the vulnerability of different areas by analyzing factors such as population density,
infrastructure, and land use patterns. This comprehensive approach ensures a detailed understanding of
which areas are most at risk, allowing for targeted interventions and effective flood risk management
strategies.

3.5 Integration and Visualization

In the integration and visualization phase, GIS-based mapping is used to create detailed flood hazard maps.
These maps highlight high-risk areas and potential flood extents, providing a visual representation of the
flood risk assessment. This step is crucial for effectively communicating flood risks to stakeholders and
supporting informed decision-making for flood management and mitigation efforts.

3.6 Policy and Planning Recommendations

In the policy and planning recommendations phase, the focus is on developing effective flood mitigation
measures based on the analysis. This involves studying various strategies to mitigate flood risks and
providing actionable recommendations for urban planners and policymakers. The goal is to incorporate
flood risk reduction into urban development plans, ensuring that future developments are resilient to 3
flooding and that existing vulnerabilities are addressed. This comprehensive approach helps to protect
communities, infrastructure, and economic activities from the adverse impacts of flood
4. Literature Review

The valley is bowl‐shaped loose soil deposit with relatively flat terrains centrally, hillocks in the out‐skirts,
and mountains ranging from 1198 m to 2722 m above mean sea level (amsl) in the valley fringes. The
weather is subtropical and is influenced by the South Asian monsoon with hot and wet summers (March–
August) and cold and slightly dry winters (September-February)(Aryal K.R. et.al.,2021).There is a critical
need for dynamic risk assessments that consider the complex interactions between natural hazards, urban
growth, and social vulnerability to guide resilient urban development strategies(Aryal K.R.
et.al.,2021).Flood Hazard mapping involves expert opinions from various fields and considered factors such
as distance from the river, rainfall, land use, slope, elevation, and drainage density to assess flood
risks(Chaulagain.D et.al.,2023).The assessment methodology, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process
(AHP), showed promising results validated against historical hazard records. Eastern, southern, and north-
eastern parts, along with peripheral mountains, were found to be less prone to multi-hazards, suggesting
potential areas for urban expansion(Aryal K.R. et.al.,2021).The results showed that distance from the river,
rainfall, and land use change were the most influential factors contributing to flood susceptibility in the
city(Chaulagain.D et.al.,2023).The mapping revealed that certain wards in KMC, particularly those near
rivers, were at higher risk of flooding, emphasizing the importance of targeted flood preparedness and
response strategies(Chaulagain.D et.al.,2023).The adaptation of the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to the
local context provides a comprehensive assessment of social vulnerability, aiding in the identification of
vulnerable communities and the prioritization of interventions to enhance resilience(Mesta.C
et.al.,2022).Eastern, southern, and north-eastern parts, along with peripheral mountains, were found to be
less prone to multi-hazards, suggesting potential areas for urban expansion(Mesta.C et.al.,2022).

5. Data Sources:
Primary Data Sources:

• Kathmandu Valley Development Authority (KVDA):

• Land cover data from 2015, provided by the KVDA, offers baseline information on land use patterns and
changes over time.

Department of Survey (DOS):

• Topographic maps and land survey data from the DOS are used as sources and tools for analyzing and
validating the research objectives and results.

• Census Reports:
Population data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) are incorporated to examine the relationship
between population growth and land use change.

Secondary Data Sources:

• Climate Consultant
• DHM Precipitation Data
• Research Articles

6. Spatial analysis and discussion:

a) Calculation of Topographical Wetness Index (TWI):

b) Land Use and Vulnerability:

Overlay of land use data (residential, commercial, agricultural) with flood hazard zones.
Discuss the vulnerability of different land uses to flooding (e.g., residential areas vs. industrial zones).

c) Infrastructure and Critical Facilities:

Identify critical facilities (schools, hospitals, emergency services) within flood-prone areas.
Discuss the impact of flooding on infrastructure (roads, bridges, utilities).

d) Population Exposure:
From CBS data analyze the population exposed to flood hazards.

e) Flood Extent and Depth:

Analyze the extent of flood-prone areas based on your hazard maps.

Data Presentation / Output

In this Project, we have tried to establish a relation between Flood Hazard vs. Slope Percentage, Topographical
Wetness Index (TWI) and Elevation of Land space.

a) Slope Percentage:
A slope map, or a slope gradient map, is a thematic map showing the steepness or slope of the terrain in a
particular area. It is typically created from a digital elevation model (DEM) that provides information
about the elevation and topography of an area. Slope maps are often used in various fields, including
geology, geography, and environmental science. They can be used to identify areas that are prone to
erosion, landslides, or other types of slope-related hazards.

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 Fig: Slope Percentage Map of Kathmandu Valley West Portion(Self)

b) Topographical Wetness Index (TWI):

The topographic wetness index (TWI) is a derived geospatial parameter used to quantify and characterize the
degree of wetness or soil moisture conditions within a given landscape. The topography-based index
combines information about the slope and the accumulation of upslope-contributing areas to assess the
potential for water accumulation or saturation in a particular location. The TWI is widely employed in
hydrological and environmental studies to understand water movement, soil moisture patterns, and their
implications for various ecological processes.
TWI calculation involves computing the natural logarithm of the ratio between the upslope-contributing area
and the local slope. The upslope-contributing area represents an area that drains water toward a specific
location, considering the accumulation of water from the surrounding terrain. The slope measures the
steepness of the land surface

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c) Elevation:
Elevation affects flood vulnerability.
Low-lying areas are more susceptible to inundation.

Fig: Slope Percentage Map of Kathmandu Valley West Portion(Self)

d) Distance to River (D2R):

D2R indicates how near area is to the river channel. Areas lying near to channel are more susceptible
to flooding. A distance-to-river map is a type of thematic map that shows the distance of a
particular location or area from a river or other watercourse. It is typically created using
geographic information system (GIS) software, which can analyze the location and geometry of
rivers and calculate the distance from a given point or area. Distance to river maps are often
used in environmental analysis, land use planning, and flood risk assessment. They can help
identify areas that are vulnerable to flooding, erosion, or other water-related hazards, as well as
areas that may significantly impact water quality or aquatic habitats. Overall, distance to
river maps are useful tools for analyzing the relationship between human activities and
aquatic environments in a given area.

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 Fig: D2C Map of Kathmandu Valley West Portion(Self)

Fig: Final Hazard Zone Map of Kathmandu Valley West Portion(Self)

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 7. Result

a. High Population Wards:

o Ward No. 16 (Kathmandu Metro) has the highest population with 84,441 residents, followed by
Ward No. 32 with 76,241 residents, and Ward No. 31 with 66,121 residents.
o These wards represent areas with a significant number of people at potential risk from flooding.
b. Moderate Population Wards:
o Wards such as No. 14 (58,495 residents), No. 7 (51,581 residents), and No. 26 (45,052 residents)
have moderately high populations.
o These areas also need considerable attention due to the substantial number of inhabitants.
c. Lower Population Wards:
o Wards like No. 8 (10,738 residents) and No. 12 in Chandragiri Nagarpalika (7,323 residents)
have comparatively lower populations.
o While the risk is present, the impact in terms of affected individuals may be lower compared to
more densely populated areas.

Fig: Criteria Raster Map of Kathmandu Valley West Portion(Self)

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 Fig: Land Use Map of Kathmandu Valley West Portion in Risk Zone 5, 4 and 3(Self)

11. Conclusion

a. Risk Assessment and Mitigation:

o High population wards such as No. 16, 32, and 31 in Kathmandu Metro should be prioritized for
detailed flood risk assessment and mitigation planning.
o Implementing early warning systems and evacuation plans in these areas could significantly
reduce the potential impact of flooding.
b. Resource Allocation:
o Resource allocation for flood prevention and management should consider the population
density of wards. High population areas require more resources for effective management and
risk reduction.
o Infrastructure improvements, such as enhanced drainage systems, should be targeted first in the
most populated and high-risk areas.
c. Community Awareness and Preparedness:
o Community awareness programs focusing on flood preparedness should be intensified in wards
with higher populations.
o Educating residents about emergency procedures, safe zones, and first aid can help reduce
casualties and property damage during flood events.
d. Data-Driven Decision Making:
o Utilizing population data in flood hazard mapping ensures that decision-makers can prioritize
actions and resources efficiently.

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 o This approach helps in minimizing the overall impact of flooding on the community, particularly
in highly populated and vulnerable wards.

These points provide a summary of the population distribution in flood-prone wards, highlighting the
need for targeted flood risk management strategies in Kathmandu Valley.

8. References:

1) Khatakho, R.; Gautam, D.; Aryal, K.R.; Pandey, V.P.; Rupakhety, R.; Lamichhane, S.; Liu, Y.-C.; Abdouli, K.;
Talchabhadel, R.; Thapa, B.R.; et al. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 5369. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105369

2) Mesta, C., Cremen, G., & Galasso, C. (2022). Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment
for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley. Scientific Reports, 12(6152). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-
09347-x

3) Chaulagain, D., Rimal, P. R., Ngando, S. N., Nsafon, B. E. K., Suh, D., & Huh, J.-S. (2023). Flood
susceptibility mapping of Kathmandu metropolitan city using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis.
Ecological Indicators, 110653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110653

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