Introduction To Statistics
Introduction To Statistics
Reading
Introductory Comments
This Chapter sets the framework for the book. Read it carefully, because the ideas
introduced are a basis to this subject and research Methodology.
Random Sampling
In order that these generalizations should be accurate the sample must be random,
that is, every possible sample has an equal chance of selection and the choice of a
member of the sample must not be influenced by previous selection; this is simple
random sampling.
1
Example 1
Solution
Sample Measurements
1 1,2
2 1,3
3 1,4
4 1,5
5 1,7
6 2,3
7 2,4
8 2,5
9 2,7
10 3,4
11 3,5
12 3,7
13 4,5
14 4,7
15 5,7
Now let us suppose that I draw a single sample of n = 2 measurement from the 15
possible sample of two measurements. The sample selected is called a random sample if
every sample had an equal probability (1/15) being selected.
It is rather unlikely that we would ever achieve a truly random sample, because the
probabilities of selection will not always be exactly equal. But we do the best we can.
One of the simplest and most reliable ways to select a random sample of n measurements
from a population is to use a table of random numbers (See Appendix B). Random
number tables are constructed in such a way that, no matter where you start in the tables
no matter what direction you move, the digits occur randomly and with equal probability.
Thus if we wished to choose a random sample of n = measurements from a population
containing 100 measurements, we could label the measurements in the population from
0 to 99 (or 1 to 100). Then referring to Appendix Vii and choosing a random starting
point, the next 10 two-digit numbers going across the page would indicate the labels of
the particular measurements to be included in the random sample. Similarly, by moving
up or down the page, we would also obtain a random sample.
2
Example 2
Solution
Assuming that a list of all families in the community is available such as a telephone
directory), we could label the families from 0 to 849 (or equivalently, from 1 to 850).
Then referring to the Appendix, we choose a starting point. Suppose we have decided to
start at line 1, column 4. Going down the page we will choose the first 20 three-digit
numbers between 000 and 849 from Table B, we have
These 20 members identify the 20 families that are to be included in our example/
The reasoning that is used in statistics hinges on understanding two types of logic,
namely deductive and inductive logic. The type of logic that reasons from the particular
(sample) to the general (Population) is known as inductive logic, while the type that
reasons from the general to the particular is known as deductive logic.
Learning Objectives
3
CHAPTER 2
Reading
Newbold Chapter 2
Introductory Comments
This Chapter contains themes to do with the understanding of data. We find graphical
representations from the data, which allow one to easily see its most important
characteristics. Most of the graphical representations are very tedious to construct
without the use of a computer. However, one understands much more if one tries a few
with pencil and a paper.
Types of business data. Although the number of business phenomena that can be
measured is almost limitless, business data can generally be classified as one of two
types: quantitative or qualitative.
Quantitative data are observations that are measured on a numerical scale. Examples of
quantitative business data are:
4
Qualitative data is one that is not measurable, in the sense that height is measured, or
countable, as people entering a store. Many characteristics can be classified only in one
of asset of category. Examples of qualitative business data are:
ii) The brand of petrol last purchased by seventy four randomly selected car owners.
Again, each measurement would fall into one and only one category.
For example, suppose a woman’s clothing store located in the downtown area of a
large city wants to open a branch in the suburbs. To obtain some information
about the geographical distribution of its present customers, the Store manager
conducts a survey in which each customer is asked to identify her place of
residence with regard to the city’s four quadrants. Northwest (NW), North east
(NE), Southwest (SW), or Southeast (SE). Out of town customers are excluded
from the survey. The response of n = 30 randomly selected resident customers
might appear as in Table 1.1 (note that the symbol n is used here and throughout
this course to represent the sample size i.e. the number of measurements in a
sample). You can see that each of the thirty measurements fall in one and only
one of the four possible categories representing the four quadrants of the city.
A natural and useful technique for summarizing qualitative data is to tabulate the
frequency or relative frequency of each category.
5
Definition:
The frequency for a category is the total number of measurements that fall in the
category. The frequency for a particular category, say category i will be denoted by the
symbol fi .
The relative frequency for a category is the frequency of that category divided by the
total number of measurements; that is, the relative frequency for category I is
fi
Relative frequency =
n
The frequency for a category is the total number of measurements in that category,
whereas the relative frequency for a category is the proportion of measurements in the
category. Table 1.2 shows the frequency and relative frequency for the customer
residences listed in Table 1.1. Note that the sum of the frequencies should always equal
the total number of measurements in the sample and the sum of the relative frequencies
should always equal 1 (except for rounding errors) as in Table 1.2.
Total 30 1
The height of the bar for a given category is proportional to the category frequency (or
relative frequency). Usually the bars are placed in a vertical position with the base of the
bar on the horizontal axis of the graph. The order of the bars on the horizontal axis is
unimportant. Both a frequency bar chart and a relative frequency bar chart for the
customer’s residence are shown in Figure 1.1.
6
10
Relative
5 Frequency
Frequency
0
NE NW SE SW
Residential quadrant
.50
.25
NE NW SE SW
Residential Quadrant
Figure 1.1
7
b) The Pie Chart
The second method of describing qualitative data sets is the pie chart. This is
often used in newspaper and magazine articles to depict budgets and other
economic information. A complete circle (the pie) represents the total number of
measurements. This is partitioned into a number of slices with one slice for each
category. For example, since a complete circle spans 360o, if the relative
frequency for a category is .30, the slice assigned to that category is 30% of 360
or (.30) (36) = 108o.
108o
Figure 1.2 The portion of a pie char corresponding to a relative frequency of .3.
The histogram (often called a frequency distribution) is the most popular graphical
technique for depicting quantitative data. To introduce the histogram we will use thirty
companies selected randomly from the 1980 Financial Magazine (the top 500 companies
in sales for calendar year 1979). The variable X we will be interested in is the earnings
per share (E/S) for these thirty companies. The earnings per share is computed by
dividing the year’s net profit by the total number of share of common stock outstanding.
This figure is of interest to the economic community because it reflects the economic
health of the company.
The earnings per share figures for the thirty companies are shown (to the nearest ngwee)
in Table 1.3.
8
Company E/S Company E/S` Company E/S
1 1.85 11 2.80 21 2.75
2 3.42 12 3.46 22 6.58
3 9.11 13 8.32 23 3.54
4 1.96 14 4.62 24 4.65
5 6.48 15 3.27 25 0.75
6 5.72 16 1.35 26 2.01
7 1.72 17 3.28 27 5.36
8 .8.56 18 3.75 28 4.40
9 0.72 19 5.23 29 6.49
10 6.28 20 2.92 30 1.12
2. Divide the interval from the smallest to the largest measurement into between five
and twenty equal sub-intervals, making sure that:
a) Each measurement falls into one and only one measurement class.
4. Using a vertical axis of about three-fourths the length of the horizontal axis, plot
each frequency (or relative frequency) as a rectangle over the corresponding
measurement class.
Using a number of measurements, n = 30, is not large, we will use six classes to
span the distance between the smallest measurements, 0.72, and the largest
measurement, 9.11. This distance divided by 6 is equal to
9
By locating the lower boundary of the first class interval at 0.715 (slightly below the
smallest measurement) and adding 1.4, we find the upper boundary to be 2.115. Adding
1.4 again, we find the upper boundary of the second class to be 3.515. Continuing this
process, we obtain the six class intervals shown in the table below. Note that each
boundary falls on a 0.005 value (one significant digit more than the measurement), which
guarantees that no measurement will fall on a class boundary.
The next step is to find the class frequency and calculate the class relative frequencies
Total 30 1.00
Table 1.4
Definition
The class frequency for a given class, say class i, is equal to the total number of
measurements that fall in that class. The class frequency for class I is denoted by the
symbol f i .
Definition
The class relative frequency for a given class, say class i, is equal to the class frequency
divided by the total number n of measurements, i.e.
fi
Relative frequency for class i =
n
10
8
.3
.2
.1
11
Cumulative Frequency Distribution
It is often useful to know the number or the proportion of the total number of
measurements that are less than or equal to those contained in a particular class. These
quantities are called the class cumulative frequency and the class cumulative relative
frequency respectively.
For example, if the classes are numbered from the smallest to the largest values of x, 1, 2,
3, 4, . . . , then the cumulative frequency for the third class would equal the sum of the
class frequencies corresponding to classes 1, 2, and 3.
f1 f 2 f 3
Similarly, cumulative relative frequency for class 3 where n is the total
n
number of measurements in the sample.
Cumulative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies for earning per share data.
12
1.0
Cumulative
Relative .8
Frequency
.6
.4
.2
Learning Objective
Draw a pie chart, bar chart and also construct frequency tables, relative
frequencies, and histogram.
Interpret the diagrams. You will understand the importance of captions, axis
labels and graduation of axes.
13
CHAPTER 3
DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES
Reading
Newbold Chapter 2
Introductory Comments
This Chapter contains themes which allow one to easily se the most important
characteristics of data. The idea is to find simple numbers like the mean, variance which
will summarize those characteristics.
Definition.
The mode is the measure that occurs with the greatest frequency in the data set.
Because if emphasizes data concentration, the mode has application in marketing
as well as in description of large data sets collected by state and federal agencies.
Unless the data set is rather large, the mode may not be very meaningful. For
example, consider the earning per share measurements for the thirty financial
companies we used in the previous chapter. If you were to re-examine these data,
you would find that none of the thirty measurements is duplicated in this sample.
This, strictly speaking, all thirty measurements are mode for this sample.
Obviously, this information is of no practical use for data description. We can
calculate a more meaningful mode by constructing a relative frequency histogram
for the data. The interval containing the most measurements is called the modal
class and the mode is taken to be the midpoint of this class interval.
14
The modal class, the one corresponding to the interval 0.715 – 2.115 lies to the left side
of the distribution. The mode is the midpoint of this interval; that is
0.715 2.115
Mode = 1.415
2
In the sense that the mode measures data concentration, it provides a measure of central
tendency of the data.
The most popular and best understood measure of central Tendency for a quantitative
data set is the arithmetic (or simply the mean):
Definition
The mean of a set of quantitative data is equal to the sum of the measurements divided by
the number of measurement contained in the data set. The mean of a sample is denoted
by x (read “x bar”) and represent the formula for this calculation as follows:-
Example 1
Solution
Using the definition of the sample mean and demand shorthand notation we find
5 3 8 5 6 27
x 11
xi 5.4.
5 5 5
The sample mean will play an important role in accomplishing our objective of making
inferences about populations based on sample information. For this reason it is important
to use a different symbol when we want to discuss the mean of a population of
measurement s i.e. the mean of the entire set of measurements in which we are interested.
We use the Greek letter (“mu”) for the population mean
15
The Median: Another measure of Central Tendency
The median of a data set is the number such that half the measurements fall below the
median and half fall above. The median is of most value in describing large data sets. If
the data set is characterized by a relative frequency histogram, the median is the point on
the x-axis such that half the area under the histogram lies above the median and half lies
below. For a small, or even a large but finite, number of measurements, there may be
many numbers that t satisfy the property indicated in the figure on the next page. For this
reason, we will arbitrarily calculate the media of a data.
Calculating a median
1. If the number of n of measurements in a data set is odd, the median is the middle
number when the measurements are arranged in ascending (or descending) order.
2.. If the number of n of measurements is even, the median is the mean of the two
middle measurements when the measurements are arranged in ascending (or
descending) order.
Example 2
5, 7, 4, 5, 20, 6, 2
b) Eliminate the last measurement (the 2) and calculate the median of the remaining
n = 6 measurements.
Solution
a) The seven measurements in the sample are first arranged in ascending order
2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 20
Since the number of measurements is odd, the median is the middle measure.
Thus, the median of this sample is 5.
b) After removing the 2 from the set of measurements, we arrange the sample
measurements in ascending order as follows:
4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 20
16
Now the number of measurements is even, and so we average the middle two
measurements. The median is (5+6)/2 = 5.5.
Comparing the mean and the median
1. If the median is less than the mean, the data set is skewed to the right.
Relative
Frequency
Median Mean
Mean Mode
Skewness
s tan dard deviation
3( mean median)
s tan dard deviation
2. The median will equal the mean when the data set is symmetric.
Median Mean
Measurement unit
Symmetry
17
3. If the median is greater than the mean, the data set is skewed to the left.
Mean Median
Measures of Variation
Definition:
The range of a data. Set is equal to the largest measurement minus the smallest measure.
When dealing with grouped data, there are two procedures which are not adopted for
determining the range.
The Sample Variance for a sample of n measurements is equal to the squared distances
from the mean divided by (n-1). In symbols using S 2 to represent the simple variances,
(x x)i
2
S2 i 1
n 1
18
The second step in finding a meaningful measure of data variability is to calculate the
standard deviation of the data set.
The sample standard deviation , s, is defined as the positive square root of the sample
variance, S 2 thus,
(x x) i
2
S S2 i 1
n 1
The corresponding quantity, the population standard deviation, measure the variability of
the measurements in the population and is denoted by (‘sigma’). The population
variances will therefore be denoted by 2 .
Example 3
Solution
(2 3) 2 (3 2) 2 (3 3) 2 (4 3) 2
S
5 1
2
0.5 0.71
4
2
( sum of sample measurement )
( sum of square of sample measurement )
S2 n
n 1
2
n
x1
xi i 1
n
i 1
2
n
n 1
19
Example 4
Use the shortcut formula to compute the variances of these two samples of five measures
each.
Solution
x
i 1
1 = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 15, and
x
i 1
2
1 12 22 32 42 52
1 4 9 16 25 55
2
5
xi
x1 i 1
n
(15) 2
2
5
55
5
S 2 i 1
5 1 4
55 45 10
2.5
4 4
x
i 1
i = 2 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 4 = 15
5
Add x
i 1
2
1 2 2 32 32 32 4 2 4 9 9 9 16 47
20
Then the variance for sample 2 is
2
5
xi
x1 i 1
n
(15) 2
2
5
47
5
S 2 i 1
5 1 4
47 45 2
0.5
4 4
Example 5
The earnings per share measurements for thirty companies selected randomly from 1980
Financial/Daily mail are listed here. Calculate the sample variance S 2 and the standard
deviation, S, from these measurements.
Solution
The calculation of the sample variance , S 2 , would be very tedious for this example if we
tried to use the formula,
30
( x x)
i
2
S2 i 1
30 1
because it would be necessary to compute all thirty squared distances from the mean.
However, for the shortcut formula we need only compute:
21
30
x
i 1
i 1.85 3.42 . . . 1.12 122.47 and
30
x
i 1
2
i (1.85) 2 (3.42) 2 . . . (1.12) 2 6.57.5239
2
30
x1
i 1
30
(122.47) 2
i x 2
30
657.5239
30
S 2 i 1
30 1 29
5.4331
Notice that we retained four decimal places in the calculation of S 2 to reduce rounding
errors, even though the original data were accurate to only two decimal places.
S S 2 5.4331 2.33
If we are comparing the variability of two samples selected from a population, the sample
with the larger standard deviation is the more variable of the two. Thus, we know how to
interpret the standard deviation on a relative or comparative basis, but we have not
explained how it provides a measure of variability for a single sample.
One way to interpret the standard deviation as a measure of variability of a data set would
be to answer questions each as the following. How many measurements are within 1
standard deviation of the mean? How many measurements are within 2 standard
deviation of the mean? For a specific data set, we can answer the questions by counting
the number of measurements in each of the intervals. However, if we are interested on
obtaining a general answer to these questions, the problem is more difficult. There are
two guidelines to help answer the questions of how many measurements fall within 1, 2,
and 3 standard deviations of the mean. The first set, which applied to any sample, is
derived from a theorem proved by the Russian Mathematician Chebyshev. The second
set, the Empirical Rule is based on empirical evidence that has accumulated over time
and applies to samples that posses mould shaped frequency distributions those that are
approximately symmetric, with a clustering of measurement about the mid point of the
22
distribution (the mean, median and mode should all be about the same) and that laid off
as we move away from the center of the histogram.
2. A rule of thumb, called the empirical rule, that applies to samples with frequency
distributions that are mould-shaped:
Example 6
Refer to the data for earnings per share for thirty companies selected randomly from the
1980 Financial/Daily Mail. x 4.08, S 2.33. Calculate the fraction of the thirty
measurements that lie within the intervals x S , x 2S , and x 3S , and compare the
results with those of the Chebyshev and Empirical rule.
23
Solution
contains all the measurements. These 1, 2 and 3 standard deviations percentages (63, 97,
and 100) agree fairly well with the approximations of 68%, 95% and 100%, given by the
Empirical Rule for mould-shape distributions.
Example 7
The aid for interpreting the value of a standard deviation can be put to an immediate
practical use as a check on the calculation of the standard deviation. Suppose you have a
data set for which the smallest measurement is 20 and the largest is 80. You have
calculated the standard deviation of the data set to be S = 190.
How can you use the Chebyshev or empirical rule to provide a rough check on your
calculated value of S?
Solution
The larger the number of measurements in a data set, the greater will be the tendency for
very large or very small measurements (extreme values) to appear in the data set. But
from the Rules, you know that most of the measurements (approximately 95% if the
distribution is mould-shaped) will be within 2 standard deviations of the mean, and
regardless of how many measurements are in the data set, almost all of them will fall 3
standard deviations of the mean. Consequently we would expect the range to be between
4 and 6 standard deviations – i.e. between 4s and 6s.
24
Range – largest measurement – smallest measurement = 80 – 20 = 20.
x 2S x x 2S
Range 4S
Range = 6S
60 = 6S
S = 10
Or, if we let the range equal 4S, we obtain a larger (and more conservative) value for S,
namely
Range = 4S
60 = 6S
S = 15
Now you can see that it does not make much difference whether you let the range equal
4S (which is more realistic for most data set) or 6S (which is reasonable for large data
sets). It is clear than your calculated value, S = 190, is too large, and you should check
your calculations.
25
Calculating a mean and standard Deviation from Grouped data
If your data have been grouped in classes of equal width and arranged in a frequency
table, you can use the following formulas to calculate x , S2, and S
x f i i
x i 1
n
2
K
xi f i
x12 f i i 1
K
n
S 2 i 1
n 1
S S2
Example 8
Compute the mean and standard deviation for the earnings per share data using the
grouping shown in the frequency Table 1.4.
Solution
The six class interval, midpoints, and frequencies are shown in the accompanying table.
26
K
x f i i
x i 1
(1.415)(8) (2.815)(7) (4.215)(5) . . . (8.415)(3) / 30
n
120.85
4.03
30
2
K
xi f i
x12 f i i 1
K
n
S 2 i 1
n 1
K
We found x f
i 1
i i = 120.85 when we calculated x, therefore
You will notice that values of x, S 2 , and S from the formulas for grouped data usually do
not agree with these obtained for the raw data ( x 4.03 and S = 2.311). This is because
we have substituted the value of the class mid point for each value of x in a class
interval. Only when every value of a x in each class is equal to its respective class
midpoint will the formulas for grouped and for ungrouped data give exactly the same
answers for x, S 2 , and S. Otherwise, the formulas for grouped data will give only the
approximations to these numerical descriptive measures.
Descriptive measures of the relationship of a measurement to the rest of the data are
called measure of relative standing.
27
Definition
For example: if oil company A report that its yearly sales are in the 90th percentile of all
companies in the industry, the implication is that 90% of all oil companies have yearly
sales less that A’s, and only 10% have yearly sales exceeding company A’s.
Relative
Frequency
.90
.10
Another measure of relative standing in popular use is the Z-score. The Z-score makes
use of the mean and standard deviation of the data set in order to specify the location of a
measurement.
Definition
xx
Z
S
x
Z
The Z-score represents the distance between a given measurement x and the mean
expressed in standard units.
28
Example 9
Suppose 200 steel workers are selected, and the annual income of each is determined.
The mean and standard deviation are x K14,000, S K 2,000
Suppose Chipo’s annual income is K12, 000 what is his sample Z-score?
Solution
Chipo’s annual income lies below the mean income of the 200 steel workers.
x x 12000 14000
We compute Z 1.0
S 2000
Which tells us that Chipo’s annual income is 1.0 standard deviation below the sample
mean, in short, his sample Z-score is –1.0.
Example 10
Suppose a female bank executive believes that her salary is low as a result of sex
discrimination. To try to substantiate her belief, she collects information on the salaries
of her counterparts in the banking business. She finds that their salaries have a mean of
K17, 000 and a standard deviation of K1, 000. Her salary is K13, 500. Does this
information support her claim of sex discrimination?
Solution
The analysis might proceed as follows: First, we calculate the Z-score for the woman’s
salary with respect to those of her male counterparts. Thus
13500 17000
Z 3.5
1000
29
The implication is that the woman’s salary is 3.5 standard deviations below the mean of
the male distribution. Furthermore, if a check of the male salary data shows that the
frequency distribution is mould-shaped, we can infer that very few salaries in this
distribution should have a Z-score less than –3, as shown in the figure.
Relative
Frequency
Z-Score = -3.5
13.500 17,000
Salary (K)
Well, which of the two situations do you think prevails? Do you think the woman’s
salary is simply an usually low one in the distribution of salaries, or do you think her
claim of salary discrimination is justified? Most people would probably conclude that
her salary does not come from the male salary distribution.
However, the careful investigator should require more information before inferring sex
discrimination as the case. We would want to know more about the data collection
technique the woman used, and more about her competence at her job. Also perhaps
other factors like the length of employment should be considered in the analysis.
30
Learning Objectives
31
Sample Examination Questions
1. (a) Briefly state, with reasons, the type of chart which would best convey the
information for each of the following:
(iii) Numbers of cars taxed for 2002, 2003 and 2004 in areas A, B and
C of a city.
(b) The weekly cost (K) of rented accommodation was recorded for 100
students living in an area.
Amount in Thousand of
Kwachas Frequency
0–4 3
5–9 17
10 – 14 24
15 – 19 31
20 – 24 19
25 - 29 6
32
2. The data below are per capita per week numbers of cigarettes sold for 38 states in
a country.
(d) How does this compare with the actual situation as shown in the table
above?
3. (a) Briefly state, with reasons, the type of chart which would best convey in
each of the following:
(b) The weekly cost (K’000) of rented accommodation was recorded for 40
students living in an area.
35 56 33 30 31 55 29 27
21 32 43 33 29 27 30 29
26 26 27 26 35 32 28 27
31 27 33 24 27 28 33 49
22 19 46 36 26 38 36 55
33
(i) Summarize the data in a frequency distribution table.
(ii) Calculate the mean and the standard deviation from your frequency
table.
(iii) Plot a histogram for these data. What is the value of the median?
5 18 29 42 50 61
8 20 33 43 54 63
10 21 35 46 56 67
11 25 39 48 58 69
14
(b) Explain the term ‘measure of dispersion’ and state briefly the advantage and
disadvantage of using the following measures of dispersion:
(i) Range
(ii) Mean deviation
(iii) Standard deviation
34
5. A machine produces the following number of rejects in each successive period of
five minutes.
20 55 58 40 15 28 21 29 30 17
84 58 7 40 41 67 28 19 26 26
16 25 55 43 22 66 32 29 11 21
26 42 57 73 27 66 7 23 17 35
27 42 13 28 24 37 34 27 24 12
(a) Construct a frequency distribution from these data, using seven class
intervals of equal width.
35