Scribd
Upload
217 views5 pages

ASSIGNMENT 2 Production and Logistics Management - Forecasting Numerical Assignment

qw

Uploaded by

mysoreman420
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
217 views5 pages

ASSIGNMENT 2 Production and Logistics Management - Forecasting Numerical Assignment

qw

Uploaded by

mysoreman420
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 5

Production and Logistics Management -Numerical Assignment

-Forecast

1. Solve any 5 from 1- 9 Problem


2. Problem 10,11,12 are compulsory

Problem 1

Given the following data, calculate forecasts for months 4, 5, 6, and


7 using a three-month moving average and an exponential
smoothing forecast with an alpha of 0.3. Assume a forecast of 61
for month 3:

Problem 2

The demand for a product in each of the last five months is shown below.
Month 1 2 3 4 5
Demand ('00s) 13 17 19 23 24
 Use a two month moving average to generate a forecast for demand in month 6.

 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.9 to generate a forecast for demand
for demand in month 6.

 Which of these two forecasts do you prefer and why?

Problem 3

The table below shows the demand for a new aftershave in a shop for each of the
last 7 months.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demand 23 29 33 40 41 43 49

 Calculate a two month moving average for months two to seven. What
would be your forecast for the demand in month eight?
 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.1 to derive a
forecast for the demand in month eight.
 Which of the two forecasts for month eight do you prefer and why?
 The shop keeper believes that customers are switching to this new
aftershave from other brands. Discuss how you might model this switching
behaviour and indicate the data that you would require to confirm whether
this switching is occurring or not.

Problem 4

The table below shows the demand for a particular brand of razor in a shop for
each of the last nine months.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Demand 10 12 13 17 15 19 20 21 20

 Calculate a three month moving average for months three to nine. What
would be your forecast for the demand in month ten?
 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to derive a
forecast for the demand in month ten.
 Which of the two forecasts for month ten do you prefer and why?

Problem 5

The table below shows the demand for a particular brand of fax machine in a
department store in each of the last twelve months.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demand 12 15 19 23 27 30 32 33 37 41 49 58

 Calculate the four month moving average for months 4 to 12. What would
be your forecast for the demand in month 13?
 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.2 to derive a
forecast for the demand in month 13.
 Which of the two forecasts for month 13 do you prefer and why?
 What other factors, not considered in the above calculations, might
influence demand for the fax machine in month 13?

Problem 6

The table below shows the demand for a particular brand of microwave oven in a
department store in each of the last twelve months.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demand 27 31 29 30 32 34 36 35 37 39 40 42
 Calculate a six month moving average for each month. What would be your
forecast for the demand in month 13?
 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.7 to derive a
forecast for the demand in month 13.
 Which of the two forecasts for month 13 do you prefer and why?

Problem 7

The table below shows the temperature (degrees C), at 11 p.m., over the last ten
days:

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Temperature 1.5 2.3 3.7 3.0 1.4 -1.3 -2.4 -3.7 -0.5 1.3

 Calculate a three day moving average for each day.


 What would be your forecast for the temperature at 11 p.m. on day 11?
 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.8 to derive a
forecast for the temperature at 11 p.m. on day 11.
 Which of the two forecasts for the temperature at 11 p.m. on day 11 do
you prefer and why?

Problem 8

The table below shows the movement of the price of a commodity over 12 months.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Price 25 30 32 33 32 31 30 29 28 28 29 31

 Calculate a 6 month moving average for each month. What is the forecast
for month 13?
 Apply exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of 0.7 and 0.8 to
derive forecasts for month 13.
 Which of the two forecasts based on exponential smoothing for month 13
do you prefer and why?

Problem 9

The table below shows the sales of a toy robot over the last 11 months.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Sales 3651 4015 3874 3501 3307 3105 2986 3100 3209 3450 3507
 Calculate a four month moving average for each month. What would be
your forecast for the sales in month 12?
 Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.9 to derive a
forecast for the sales in month 12.
 Which of the two forecasts for month 12 do you prefer and why?

Problem 10

Problem 11

Estimate demand for following data by using exponential smoothing method.


Use alpha as 0.20 and 0.50 and suggest which alpha would provide more
forecast accuracy.

Time period 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.

Demand 65 80 90 100 110 90 75 55 50 60 50 45

12. Following data gives actual demand for an item for a nine month period.
Test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period.

(a) Forecast April through September using a three month moving average

(b) Use exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 to estimate April through
September

(c) Use MAD to decide which method produced better forecast over six month
period.
Table Below :

(a) 3 month moving (b) Exponential


Month Actual Error Error
average Smoothing
January 110

February 130

March 150

April 170

May 160

June 180

July 140

August 130

September 140

You might also like