Comparing Demographic Trends in Vulnerable Road User Fatalities and The U.S. Population, 1980-2019
Comparing Demographic Trends in Vulnerable Road User Fatalities and The U.S. Population, 1980-2019
Comparing Demographic Trends in Vulnerable Road User Fatalities and The U.S. Population, 1980-2019
Research Note
DOT HS 813 178 August 2021
NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590
2
In 1980 the proportion of traffic fatalities outside vehicles tion of fatalities of people inside vehicles (passenger car,
was 28 percent, or 14,308 fatalities, as shown in Figure 1. light truck, large truck, bus, and other vehicle occupants)
A decrease in the proportion of these fatalities started in has been decreasing. Even though the number of fatali-
1986 where it came down to the lowest at 20 percent in ties inside vehicles is decreasing, the number of fatalities
1996. The 1990s and early 2000s showed the lowest pro- outside vehicles is increasing, which contributes to the
portions of fatalities of people outside vehicles. However, increases in proportion of fatalities in traffic crashes.
this reduction was short lived and the proportion of Starting in 2011 the proportion of fatalities outside of
fatalities outside vehicles began to increase. Since 2001 vehicles exceeded 30 percent. In 2019 the proportion of
the proportion of fatalities in traffic crashes for VRUs fatalities for the VRUs (outside vehicles) was 34 percent,
has been increasing and correspondingly the propor- or 12,352 fatalities.
Figure 1
Proportion of Fatalities Inside/Outside Vehicle, 1980–2019
90%
80% 1980, 72%
2019, 66%
70%
Proportion of Fatalities
60%
50%
2019, 34%
40%
1980, 28%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Inside Vehicle Outside Vehicle
Excluding the other/unknown nonoccupants, Figure ing trend in recent years. Similar to Figure 1, the VRU
2 shows the counts of VRU fatalities from 1980 to 2019. fatalities were lower in the 1990s to early 2000s.
Overall, VRU fatalities decreased followed by an increas-
Figure 2
Vulnerable Road User Fatalities in Traffic Crashes, 1980–2019
16,000
14,000
12,000
VRU* Fatalities
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
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While VRU fatalities are increasing as a whole, it is at 5,337 in 2016. Motorcyclist fatalities in 2019 slightly
important to assess the fatality trends in the VRU cat- decreased from 2018, from 5,038 to 5,014. In 2019, motor-
egories separately. cyclist fatalities accounted for 41 percent of the VRU
fatalities.
Motorcyclists
During this same time the number of registered motor-
In 1980 there were 5,144 motorcyclist fatalities, 40 percent cycles showed fluctuating trends. In 1980 there were
of the total 14,308 VRU fatalities, as shown in Figure 3. 5,693,940 registered motorcycles according to the Federal
Motorcyclist fatalities decreased to 2,116 in 1997. Starting Highway Administration (FHWA). Registered motor-
in 1998 motorcyclist fatalities have been steadily increas- cycles decreased to the lowest in 1994 at 3,756,555.
ing. In 2008 motorcyclist fatalities increased to 5,312, half This decrease was short-lived and was followed by a
of all VRU fatalities. In the following 6 years motorcy- steady increase. By 2019 there were 8,595,314 registered
clist fatalities decreased and remained relatively steady. motorcycles.
However, motorcyclist fatalities again exceeded 5,000
starting in 2015 and hit the highest on record number
Figure 3
Motorcyclist Fatalities in Traffic Crashes, 1980–2019
6,000
5,000
Motorcyclist Fatalities
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: FARS 1980-2018 Final File, 2019 ARF
Pedestrians
Pedestrians had the greatest number of fatalities 2009 there were 4,109 pedestrian fatalities, the lowest
throughout the years of the VRU groups in this research number on record. However, starting in 2010 the number
note. In 1980 there were 8,070 pedestrian fatalities, 56 per- of pedestrian fatalities began increasing again. In 2019
cent of VRU fatalities. Pedestrian fatalities then steadily there were 6,205 pedestrian fatalities, half of all VRU
decreased for nearly 30 years, as shown in Figure 4. In fatalities.
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Figure 4
Pedestrian Fatalities in Traffic Crashes, 1980–2019
9,000
8,000
7,000
Pedestrian Fatalities
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: FARS 1980-2018 Final File, 2019 ARF
Pedalcyclists
Pedalcyclists (bicyclists and other cyclists) make up the 623 in 2010, a 35-percent decrease from 1980. However,
lowest proportion of fatalities among the VRU categories. regardless of the overall decrease in fatalities, starting in
The number of pedalcyclist fatalities has fluctuated since 2011 the number of pedalcyclist fatalities started slowly
1980, as shown in Figure 5. In 1980 there were 965 pedal- increasing again. There were 846 pedalcyclist fatalities
cyclist fatalities, only 7 percent of the VRU fatalities. The in 2019.
lowest number of pedalcyclist fatalities recorded was
Figure 5
Pedalcyclist Fatalities in Traffic Crashes, 1980–2019
1,200
1,000
Pedalcyclist Fatalities
800
600
400
200
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
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Age was broken down into seven groups of interest (<20, From 1980 to 2019:
20-to-29, 30-to-39, 40-to-49, 50-to-59, 60-to-69, and 70+). ■ The proportion of the population in the <20 age group
Within each age group, a breakdown of sex (male versus decreased from 32 percent to 25 percent.
female) is shown. The proportions and traffic fatality rate
per 100,000 population for males and females in each age ■ Similarly, the proportion of the population in 20-to-29
group was analyzed to see if there were any compari- age group decreased from 18 percent to 14 percent.
sons between these same groups in the U.S. population. ■ In both the 30-to-39 and 40-to-49 age groups there
were increases in the proportions of the population
Census Bureau followed by decreases.
For this analysis the total U.S. population data from the ■ With the 50-to-59 age group there was a slight decrease
Census Bureau for age and sex was used. It was assumed followed by a steady increase in the proportion of the
that the full U.S. population is considered a VRU since population.
data is not available to understand the overall proportion
of people who participate in riding motorcycles, riding ■ In the 60-to-69 age group the proportion of the popu-
bicycles, or walking every day. lation remained steady with little fluctuation, but then
started to gradually increase.
The same seven age groups were used. Like the VRU
■ The 70+ age group proportions are slowly increasing.
fatalities, these age groups were separated by sex. The
Table 1
Percentage of U.S. Population, by Age Group and Sex, 1980–2019
Age Group, by Sex
<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Year %M %F %T %M %F %T %M %F %T %M %F %T %M %F %T %M %F %T %M %F %T
1980 33 30 32 19 18 18 14 14 14 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 6 9 7
1985 31 28 30 19 17 18 16 16 16 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 9 9 6 10 8
1990 30 27 29 17 16 16 17 16 17 13 13 13 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 10 8
1995 30 27 29 14 14 14 17 16 17 14 14 14 9 10 9 7 8 8 7 11 9
2000 30 27 29 14 13 14 16 15 15 15 15 15 11 11 11 7 8 7 7 11 9
2005 29 27 28 14 13 14 14 13 14 15 15 15 13 13 13 8 8 8 7 10 9
2010 28 26 27 14 13 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 9 10 10 8 10 9
2015 27 25 26 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 11 11 11 9 11 10
2019 26 24 25 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 12 12 10 12 11
Source: Census Bureau
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Overall, the proportion of U.S. population in the younger Vulnerable Road Users
age groups are decreasing while those in the older age The median age of the U.S. population has been gradu-
groups are increasing. When combining data for those ally increasing. In 1980, the first year in which exposure
50 and older, the proportion was 26 percent in 1980, but data was available by age, the population median age
jumped to 36 percent in 2019. This trend is opposite of was 30 and rose to 38 by 2019, as seen in Table 2. Similarly,
the youngest age group (<20) who represented 32 percent the median age of VRU fatalities has been increasing but
of the population in 1980 compared to 25 percent in 2019. at a faster pace. The median age of VRU fatalities was 26
Few differences are observed between the population in 1980 and increased to 46 in 2019. Pedalcyclist fatalities
proportions for males and females in each age group. had the lowest median age among VRU groups in 1980
The <20 and 70+ age groups showed the biggest differ- but by 2019 jumped to the highest. For pedestrian fatali-
ence in male and female proportions. Throughout the ties the median age has been the highest of VRU groups
years studied there was a 2- to 3-percent difference in until 2010. For motorcyclist fatalities the median age was
the <20 age group and a 2- to 4-percent difference in the 24 in 1980 but rose to 42 by 2019. Non-VRU fatalities have
male and female proportions of the 70+ age group for also been increasing in age, but not as fast as VRUs.
each year of Table 1.
Table 2
Median Age of U.S. Population and Road User Fatalities, 1980–2019
Vulnerable Road Users
Non-Vulnerable
Year Population Road Users Total* Motorcyclists Pedestrians Pedalcyclists
1980 30 27 26 24 34 15
1985 31 29 27 24 36 16
1990 32 31 32 27 39 23
1995 34 34 36 30 40 27
2000 35 35 39 36 43 36
2005 36 36 41 38 45 41
2010 37 39 44 42 46 46
2015 37 39 45 42 48 48
2019 38 42 46 42 49 51
Sources: FARS 1980–2018 Final File, 2019 ARF; Population—Census Bureau
*Excludes other/unknown nonoccupants.
The overall VRU fatality rate started at 6.24 per 100,000 in 1998. All fatality rates showed varying drops in 2009
population in 1980, as shown in Figure 6. The over- followed by gradual increases with slight fluctuations.
all fatality rate steadily decreased until 2000 when it Pedalcyclist fatality rates were the lowest of the VRU
reached the lowest fatality rate of 2.96 per 100,000 popu- groups throughout all the years, which makes it harder
lation. Unlike pedestrian and pedalcyclist fatality rate to see these trends.
trends, the motorcyclist fatality rate started to increase
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Figure 6
Vulnerable Road User Fatality Rates, 1980–2019
7.00
Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Total VRU* Motorcyclist Pedestrian Pedalcyclist
Motorcyclists
Overall, the female motorcyclist fatality rates were much when the rates started to increase. However, the female
lower than the male motorcyclist fatality rates in all age motorcyclist fatality rates for the 30-to-39 age group did
groups, as shown in Figure 7. not show a consistent pattern.
For the <20 and 20-to-29 age groups motorcyclist fatality The motorcyclist fatality rate for males in the 40-to-49 age
rates were the highest in the early years for males and group started to slowly increase in the 1990s. Starting in
females. The motorcyclist fatality rates for males and 1998 the female motorcyclist fatality rate for the 40-to-49
females in the <20 age group steadily decreased since age group jumped before it started to decrease again.
1980. Similarly, the 20-to-29 age group fatality rates grad-
ually decreased but started fluctuating around 2000. In the 50-to-59, 60-to-69, and 70+ age groups, there
were similar trends in motorcyclist fatality rates show-
With the 30-to-39 age group, there were more noticeable ing gradual increases since the 1980s. Of these three
changes in the male motorcyclist fatality rates than the groups, females in the 70+ age group showed very minor
female motorcyclist fatality rates. The male motorcyclist increases in fatality rates. These three age groups show
fatality rates for the 30-to-39 age group were higher in slight variations.
the earlier years and steadily declined until around 1998,
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Figure 7
Motorcyclist Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population, by Age Group and Sex, 1980-2019
12.00
Male
10.00
8.00
6.00
Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population
4.00
2.00
0.00
1.20
Female*
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
<20 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70+
Pedestrians
Pedestrian fatality rates showed similar trends through- trian fatality rates started to increase in the 20-to-29,
out the years between males and females in all the age 30-to-39, 40-to-49, 50-to-59, and 60-to-69 age groups for
groups, as shown in Figure 8. Like the motorcyclist males and females. This trend is also shown in the over-
fatality rates, the pedestrian fatality rates were lower for all pedestrian and VRU fatality rates in Figure 6, as those
females. In general, pedestrian fatality rates declined in overall rates started increasing around 2010. Following
all the age groups regardless of sex from 1980 to 2019 the ongoing declines in the 70+ age group, there was a
with the most dramatic decreases being in the 70+ age plateau from 2010 to 2019. The <20 age group continues to
group. However, there were still a few increasing trends. show a decreasing trend in males and females.
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9
Figure 8
Pedestrian Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population, by Age Group and Sex, 1980-2019
14.00
Male
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population
4.00
2.00
0.00
7.00
Female*
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
<20 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70+
Pedalcyclists
As with the other VRU groups, females had lower fatal- The 40-to-49 and 70+ age groups had many variations.
ity rates than males, as shown in Figure 9. Overall, the males and females in the 40-to-49 age group
showed slight increases in fatality rates since 1980. The
The pedalcyclist fatality rates showed consistent drops 70+ age group fluctuated greatly and had small increases
in the <20 age group for both males and females, with overall for the male fatality rate.
few years showing variations in this downward trend.
In the 20-to-29 and 30-to-39 age groups, there are many Male and female pedalcyclist fatality rates are increas-
fluctuations. The male pedalcyclist fatality rates in the ing in the 50-to-59 and 60-to-69 age groups. The female
20-to-29 age group overall showed slight decreases from pedalcyclist fatality rate showed more fluctuations from
1980 to 2019. 1980 to 2010 in these two age groups.
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10
Figure 9
Pedalcyclist Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population, by Age Group and Sex, 1980-2019
1.60
Male
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
Fatality Rates per 100,000 Population
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.40
Female*
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
<20 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70+
Conclusions
Specific VRU exposure measures are not available for the baby boomers (those born from mid-1946 to mid-1964)
U.S. population by age and sex from the Census Bureau. aging.5 The baby boom era was marked with a rise in
Therefore, this analysis assumed that the whole U.S. birth rates, and now there is an increase in the propor-
population is considered a VRU. However, the actual tions of people age 50 and older that may be attributable
proportion of VRUs in the population could be differ- to this birth cohort. Per the Census Bureau, it is pro-
ent. Within the U.S. population as the proportion of the jected that over 20 percent of the U.S. population will be
younger age groups decrease year-to-year the older age over the age of 65 in the year 2030, and by 2056 this age
groups are slowly increasing. Even though the <20, 20-to- group is expected to surpass the 18 and younger group.5
29, and 30-to-39 age group proportions are decreasing,
these groups still make up over half of the U.S. popu-
lation. Specifically, the <20 age group accounted for 25
percent of the U.S. population in 2019.
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11
The Census Bureau also projects the total population’s age groups decreasing while the older age groups were
life expectancy to increase by about six years in 2060.6 increasing. Pedalcyclist fatality rates shifted with the
An increasing life expectancy may be influential to the largest rates in the <20 and 20-to-29 age groups in the
median age increase. 1980s to the 40-to-49, 50-to-59, and 60-to-69 age groups in
2019. In 2019, the <20 age group had the lowest motorcy-
Increases in the fatality rates seen throughout the VRUs clist, pedestrian, and pedalcyclist fatality rates.
could be influenced by these generational changes to the
population. Additionally, the data suggests that older In summary, this research note observed similar trends
people are participating in more active forms of trans- in the VRU fatality rates and U.S. population age group
portation, such as biking and walking, in 2019 compared proportions. These trends might be influenced by gen-
to 1980. The most noticeable similarities found were erational age changes in the U.S. population, increas-
between the motorcyclist fatality rates and the age shift ing life expectancy, and increased mobility in the older
in population proportions, which showed the younger population.
6
Medina, L., Sabo S., & Vespa, J. (2020). Living longer: Historical and The suggested APA format citation for this document is:
projected life expectancy in the United States, 1960 to 2060. Current
Population Reports, P25-1145. U.S. Census Bureau. Available at Reish, L. (2021, August). Comparing demographic trends in vulnerable
www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/ road user fatalities and the U.S. population, 1980–2019 (Research
demo/p25-1145.pdf Note. Report No. DOT HS 813 178). National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration.
NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20590
15314-080321-v3