PERT

Programme Evaluation and

Technique
It is a technique which is used for planning
scheduling and controlling the project
The most important factor in completion of
project is time involved in it which depend
upon the estimate of different activities
Time estimate for the activity can be
done by two methods
i Deterministic
approach sufficient
knowledge
about completion of
activity
2 Probabilistic approach Here not much
idea about completion time of an
activity is known
Peut follows probabilistic approach and it
is event oriented technique
In order to account for uncertain
involved in
ity
completion of activity 3 time
estimate are considerable
1 Optimistic time estimate Min time required
for completion of activity in most
ideal condition

2 Pessimistic time estimate Mani mum time

required for completion of activity
in worst condition while
analysing
worst condition contigencies are not
considered

3 Most time It is the time required

likely
for completion of activity in normal
condition
Time estimate can be represented in the
form offrequency distribution curve

edistribution
Pfaq curve
Frequency
Of
no
activity

BBB jemadar
 I

Me

É K I I EE

ay

Cir ma E
 Pessimistic

NOTES
Properties of frequency distribution curve

1 Mean time I X t Xa t Xn
n

2 Deviation Variation DIV I Xi XI

3 Variance 62 2 D E Xi X
n
4 Standard deviation r Xi x
n
 All these are parameters of spread or
dispersion

Probability Distribution
In frequency distribution we me
analysis
behaviour but in probability
group
an the distribution
distribution we analysis
of probability values of diff all possible
outcomes

Since probability valueS varies from o to 1

its analysis is comparatively simpler
hence it is our distribution curve
EBfeeteroerf Deuray distribution

a
f

µ
A probability distribution curve is plot of
function f n teamed as Probability
distribution
function w r t to time Height of which
is standauized such that area under this
curve is
unity A j y du
Ex dn

NOTE
The ordinate of this curve for
absicca x does any
not gives probability
but function f x
Hence probability at point X is given
any
by ratio of area of curve upto that point
and total area of the curve
P x Area of curve upto x
Total area

IT X dx
Fx dx
f x dx
if P.D.ci symmetric about open it is
teamed
normal Gaussain Bell shaped curve
as
and it is not symmetric about open it is
termed as B distribution curve

Following properties of normal probability

distribution curve are significant

Limits Areal
I 36 0.15 I
o
N X 50
fo I
36 Assumptions
36 error at 3
fp
X IO 68
I 120 95 Ap to 5 30
I 36
I 30 99.7 tp to 60
 BE
1

A
age time in which an activity
or mean
can be completed ITit is the time
in which 507 chance in t for completion
of an
activity
If the shapeof probability distribution
its known is expected
curve AN for activity
time can be calculated directly
But practically it is not known1 Hence
this time is computed by taking
weighted
by
te to 4than
Ip6
BE
 pm Im
I

i
a
an
 Central limit theorem
tell te 23 te 34 teas
2 z 4 5

there are no of activities

In a network
in series than the expected time of the
project along particular path is summation
of expected time of all the activity along
the path
Te project Steig the particular
along
path
Event time
1 Earliest Expected Event time Te
It is the minimum time in which an
event can occur
An event occur when all the activities
leading to it are completed
It is calculated by forward Pass method
12 lai Tei teij
15
TE ti
Mei
23

10 B Fei
in teej
13
j t 27 Imax
a ai
t j 29
tei 2g
am
it UM.TEi
fi g
 TEJ Tei tei j man

2 Latest Allowable Occurrence time Ti

It is man time in which an event
occur without
may
delaying project
It is calculated by backward pass
method 10 7 J 12
peg
12 10
if 2
9
i j 15 9 6 3min flip
lo g g
i j g
ij tei j
g
j 16
Tri Tj tei
j min

Slack
It is the time
by which occurance of an
Mhm

event can be delayed without effecting

the schedule completion time of project
It is mathematical diff between latest
allowable accuranceme and earliest expected
event occur me once time
Te Te
The value of the slack can be tre O oh
 ve

slack Te 15
A
If 0
S TL TE 7 O
Ti TE 7 R
ve slack indicates Te 10
1 The events are ahead
running can
of the schedule hence be delayed
by time value equal to slack without
delaying project
2 These events are termed as sub critical
event

B S
f S Slack O
TL TE D TL TE
e Slack indicates that this event is on
schedule and we can not afford the
this event
delay in the occurance
mm of
in occurance this event of
as
delay
would delay the entire project
2 These events are termed as critical event

C
If Slack O
S TL TE C O
 TL TE Te 10 day

g u 7

TE 13
day
the slack indicates that this event is
running behind the schedule
These events are termed as super critical
event

Critical Path
Critical Path is the longest path in terms
of time in network in which the project
can be completed
Critical path is shortest path in terms of
time in which project can be completed
as
early as possible
Critical path is that path which joins
critical event C E for which slack is
zero
Intase a network has multiple critical
path then emphasis is made on that
critical
path whose variance on standard
deviation is more
NOTE
As per central limit theorem
variance
of any path critical path it will be
equal to sum of variance of activities
along that path or critical path
Question The expected time of completion
in days for each activities of
network is shown in the fig
Determine
the critical path if scheduled
completion time is 21 days
te 6
2 y
9
te te

tess te 6

n 3
f
te te
s
te te
te 3 test
z a 8
 E

E
E
E
E Fffftd
E

Critical path 1 3 5 7 8 9 722

days Te

Question The network for a certain

project is given find its critical
path
 to tm to tr
Activity 6 8 11 8.167
1 2
1 3 3 7 9 6.67
1 4 5 7 10 7.17
2 7 8 10 12 10
2 6 4 8 12 8
3 6 8 10 12 10
4 5 4 6 8 6
5 6 3 3 6 4.63
7 8 5 8 12 8.17
6 8 7 10 15 10.33
Critical path 1 4 5 6 8
TE 28.33
521 TE 6.17
2
10 7 20.16
y
8.17
8 TE 18
10
8
6
67,3
6 10.37
I a TL 18
TE 228.3
T 4.83620
1228.33
2 07.17 34 13.17520
7 0
7.17
635 T
TL 213.17
820 TE
S O
II 17
 Probability of completion of project

so

P Tsi Area TEL Area CTE TSI

Area Ts
0 5 Area TE Tsi
P TSI X Area LTE TSI
 P TS 2 Area Tsa
Area TE Area T2 Tr
5 Area TE TS 2
P Tsz 2 Area TE TS 2

The
probability of completion of the project
in schedule time is computed as follows
STEP
Determine standard deviation of project
along critical path Use central limit
theorem

im i
r
fue of standard deviation
of critical activity on variance
STEP
Determine Ts Te and expressed it in
terms of parameter i e probability
factor on normal deviate L
I Ts and this 2 is linked
ITE with
I
probability
I 0 2
Probability 50 84 19 97.79 99.9 7
L I 2 3
15.9 2.3 0.1

Question forgiven project determine

critical path standard deviation
compute thetimedunation that will provide
90 probability of its completion in time
Also compute probability of completion of
project in 30 days

Activity to ten tp te r
HEY
1 2 2 5 8 5 I
2 3 8 11 20 12 4
2 4 4 7 16 8
2 5 4 9 20 10
3 4 O O O O O
3 7 3 5 13 6
9 6 7 10 13 10 I
5 6 3 7 17 8
6 7 2 3 10 4 1.77
7 8 2 4 6 4 0.44
72 31
 5517 8
Tu 31
y
I

8 8
T
9 6
TEES
T D FEI't g
TE 227 1235
2 27 520
5 0 8 0
g

TE 19
Te 19

Critical Path 1 2 3 4 6 7 8
6 922 6223 6324 6425 6627 672 8
Iii r I a OH 1.77 0 44
6 2.86

I 84.1 95 p

motor
97.7 1 2
2 2 1 X 95.84
84.1 97.7
 I 1.80 I
1 80I Ts 35
2 86

Ts 40.15 41 days
iv Ts 30 I
days III
30 35
2 86

1.74
L P
I 15 9 P 15.9 15.9 2.3
X
2 2 I 2 75
P 5.79
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