MATH 264

Statistics for
Social Sciences

Chapter 10

Hypothesis Testing
 Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:
 Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for
applications involving
 a single population mean from a normal distribution
 a single population proportion (large samples)
 Formulate a decision rule for testing a hypothesis
 Know how to use the critical value and p-value
approaches to test the null hypothesis (for both mean
and proportion problems)
 Know what Type I and Type II errors are
 Assess the power of a test
 What is a Hypothesis?
 A hypothesis is a claim
(assumption) about a
population parameter:

 population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
of this city is μ = $42
 population proportion
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is p = .68
 Hypothesis Testing

 Hypothesis testing begins with a hypothesis

statementAabout
HYPOTHESIS statementaabout
population
a population parameter
parameter subject
to verification

 Examples
 The mean speed of automobiles passing
milepost 150 on the West Virginia Turnpike is
68 mph
 The mean cost to remodel a kitchen is $20,000
 Hypothesis Testing
 The objective of hypothesis testing is to verify
the validity of a statement about a population
parameter
HYPOTHESIS TESTING A procedure based on sample evidence
and probability theory to determine whether the hypothesis is a
reasonable statement.
 Step 1 of the Six-Step
Process
 State the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternate
hypothesis (H1)
NULL HYPOTHESIS A statement about the value of a population
parameter developed for the purpose of testing numerical evidence.

 The null hypothesis always includes the equal sign

 For example; =, ≥, or ≤ will be used in H0
ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS A statement that is accepted if the sample
data provide sufficient evidence that the null hypothesis is false.

 The alternate hypothesis never includes the equal

sign
 For example; ≠, <, or > is used in H1
 The Null Hypothesis, H0

 States the assumption (numerical) to be

tested
Example: The average number of TV sets in
U.S. Homes is equal to three ( H0 : μ  3 )

 Is always about a population parameter,

not about a sample statistic

H0 : μ  3 H0 : X  3
 The Null Hypothesis, H0
(continued)

 Begin with the assumption that the null

hypothesis is true
 Similar to the notion of innocent until

proven guilty
 Refers to the status quo
 Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
 May or may not be rejected
 The Alternative Hypothesis, H1
 Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
 e.g., The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 )
 Challenges the status quo
 Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
 May or may not be supported
 Is generally the hypothesis that the
researcher is trying to support
 Hypothesis Testing Process

Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
Population
H0: μ = 50 )
Now select a
random sample
Is X 20 likely if μ = 50?
If not likely, Suppose
the sample
REJECT mean age Sample
Null Hypothesis is 20: X = 20
 Reason for Rejecting H0
Sampling Distribution of X

X
20 μ = 50
If H0 is true
... then we
If it is unlikely that
reject the null
we would get a
... if in fact this were hypothesis that
sample mean of
the population mean… μ = 50.
this value ...
 Step 2: Level of Significance, 

 Defines the unlikely values of the sample

statistic if the null hypothesis is true
 Defines rejection region of the sampling
distribution
 Is designated by  , (level of significance)
 Typical values are .01, .05, or .10
 Is selected by the researcher at the beginning
 Provides the critical value(s) of the test
 Level of Significance
and the Rejection Region
Level of significance =  Represents
critical value
H0: μ = 3 /2 /2
H1: μ ≠ 3 Rejection
Two-tail test 0 region is
shaded
H0: μ ≤ 3 
H1: μ > 3
Upper-tail test 0

H0: μ ≥ 3

H1: μ < 3
Lower-tail test 0
 One-Tailed and Two-Tailed
Tests

Note that the total area in the normal distribution is

1.0000.
 Step 3 of the Process

TEST STATISTIC A value, determined from sample information,

used to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis.
 Step 4 of the Process
 Formulate the decision rule
 The decision rule is a statement of specific
conditions under which the null hypothesis is
rejected and the conditions under which it is not
rejected
 The region or area of rejection defines the
location of all the values that are either so large
or so small that their probability of occurrence
under a true null hypothesis is remote
CRITICAL VALUE The dividing point between the region where the
null hypothesis is rejected and the region where it is not rejected.
 Critical Value


 Steps 5 & 6 of the Six-Step
Process

 Step 5 Make a decision

 First, select a sample and compute the value of the
test statistic
 Compare the value of the test statistic to the critical
value
 Then, make the decision regarding the null
hypothesis

 Step 6 Conclude (H1) & Interpret the results

 What can we say or report based on the results of
the statistical test?
 Errors in Making Decisions

 Type I Error
 Reject a true null hypothesis

 Considered a serious type of error

The probability of Type I Error is 

 Called level of significance of the test
 Set by researcher in advance
 Errors in Making Decisions
(continued)

 Type II Error
 Fail to reject a false null hypothesis

The probability of Type II Error is β

 Outcomes and Probabilities

Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes

Actual Situation
Decision H0 True H0 False
Do Not
No error Type II Error
Reject
Key: (1 -  ) (β)
Outcome H0
(Probability) Reject Type I Error No Error
H0 () (1-β)
 Type I & II Error Relationship

 Type I and Type II errors can not happen at

the same time
 Type I error can only occur if H0 is true
 Type II error can only occur if H0 is false

If Type I error probability (  ) , then

Type II error probability ( β )
 Factors Affecting Type II Error
 All else equal,
 β when the difference between
hypothesized parameter and its true value

 β when 
 β when σ
 β when n
 Power of the Test

 The power of a test is the probability of rejecting

a null hypothesis that is false

 i.e., Power = P(Reject H0 | H1 is true)

 Power of the test increases as the sample size

increases
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean

Hypothesis
Tests for 

 Known  Unknown
 Test of Hypothesis
for the Mean (σ Known)
 Convert sample result ( x ) to a z value
Hypothesis
Tests for 

σ Known σ Unknown

Consider the test

H0 : μ  μ 0 The decision rule is:
H1 : μ  μ0 x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   zα
σ
(Assume the population is normal) n
 Decision Rule
H0: μ ≤ μ0
x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   zα H1: μ > μ0
σ
n

Alternate rule:
Reject H0 if X  μ0  Zασ/ n 

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

Z 0 zα
σ
x μ0 μ0  z α
n

Critical value
 p-Value Approach to Testing

 p-value: Probability of obtaining a test

statistic more extreme ( ≤ or  ) than the
observed sample value given H0 is true
 Also called observed level of significance

 Smallest value of  for which H0 can be

rejected
 p-Value Approach to Testing
(continued)
 Convert sample result (e.g., x ) to test statistic (e.g., z
statistic )
 Obtain the p-value x - μ0
 For an upper
p - value  P(Z  , given that H0 is true)
σ/ n
tail test:
x - μ0
 P(Z  | μ  μ0 )
σ/ n

 Decision rule: compare the p-value to 

 If p-value ≤  , reject H0
 If p-value >  , do not reject H0
 Example: Upper-Tail Z Test
for Mean ( Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that
customer monthly cell phone bill have
increased, and now average over $52 per
month. The company wishes to test this
claim. (Assume  = 10 is known)

Form hypothesis test:

H0: μ ≤ 52 the average is not over $52 per month
H1: μ > 52 the average is greater than $52 per month
(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the
manager’s claim)
 Example: Find Rejection Region
(continued)
 Suppose that  = .10 is chosen for this test

Find the rejection region: Reject H0

 = .10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

0 1.28

x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   1.28
σ/ n
 Example: Sample Results
(continued)

Obtain sample and compute the test statistic

Suppose a sample is taken with the following

results: n = 64, x = 53.1 (=10 was assumed known)
 Using the sample results,

x  μ0 53.1  52
z   0.88
σ 10
n 64
 Example: Decision
(continued)
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
Reject H0

 = .10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

1.28
0
z = 0.88

Do not reject H0 since z = 0.88 < 1.28

i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the
mean bill is over $52
 Example: p-Value Solution
(continued)
Calculate the p-value and compare to 
(assuming that μ = 52.0)
p-value = .1894
P(x  53.1| μ  52.0)
Reject H0
 = .10
 53.1 52.0 
 P z  
 10/ 64 
0
Do not reject H0
1.28
Reject H0
 P(z  0.88)  1 .8106
Z = .88
 .1894

Do not reject H0 since p-value = .1894 >  = .10

 One-Tail Tests

 In many cases, the alternative hypothesis

focuses on one particular direction

H0: μ ≤ 3 This is an upper-tail test since the

alternative hypothesis is focused on
H1: μ > 3
the upper tail above the mean of 3

This is a lower-tail test since the

H0: μ ≥ 3
alternative hypothesis is focused on
H1: μ < 3 the lower tail below the mean of 3
 Upper-Tail Tests

 There is only one H0: μ ≤ 3

critical value, since H1: μ > 3
the rejection area is
in only one tail 

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

Z 0 zα
x μ

Critical value
 Lower-Tail Tests
H0: μ ≥ 3
 There is only one H1: μ < 3
critical value, since
the rejection area is
in only one tail 

Reject H0 Do not reject H0

-z 0 Z

μ x
Critical value
 Two-Tail Tests
 In some settings, the H0: μ = 3
alternative hypothesis does
H1: μ  3
not specify a unique direction

/2 /2
 There are two
critical values,
3 x
defining the two
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
regions of
-z/2 0 +z/2 z
rejection
Lower Upper
critical value critical value
 Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of TV
sets in US homes is equal to 3.
(Assume σ = 0.8)
 State the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
 H0: μ = 3 , H1: μ ≠ 3 (This is a two tailed test)
 Specify the desired level of significance
 Suppose that  = .05 is chosen for this test

 Choose a sample size

 Suppose a sample of size n = 100 is selected
 Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)

 Determine the appropriate technique

 σ is known so this is a z test

 Set up the critical values

 For  = .05 the critical z values are ±1.96

 Collect the data and compute the test statistic

 Suppose the sample results are

n = 100, x = 2.84 (σ = 0.8 is assumed known)

So the test statistic is:
X  μ0 2.84  3  .16
z     2.0
σ 0.8 .08
n 100
 Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)

 Is the test statistic in the rejection region?

Reject H0 if  = .05/2  = .05/2

z < -1.96 or
z > 1.96;
otherwise Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

do not -z = -1.96 0 +z = +1.96

reject H0

Here, z = -2.0 < -1.96, so the

test statistic is in the rejection
region
 Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
 Reach a decision and interpret the result

 = .05/2  = .05/2

Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

-z = -1.96 0 +z = +1.96
-2.0
Since z = -2.0 < -1.96, we reject the null hypothesis
and conclude that there is sufficient evidence that the
mean number of TVs in US homes is not equal to 3
 Example: p-Value
 Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of
2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either
direction) if the true mean is  = 3.0?

x = 2.84 is translated to
a z score of z = -2.0
P(z  2.0)  .0228 /2 = .025 /2 = .025

.0228 .0228
P(z  2.0)  .0228

p-value
= .0228 + .0228 = .0456 -1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
 Example: p-Value
(continued)
 Compare the p-value with 
 If p-value ≤  , reject H0
 If p-value >  , do not reject H0

Here: p-value = .0456 /2 = .025 /2 = .025

 = .05
.0228 .0228
Since .0456 < .05, we
reject the null
hypothesis
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
(σ Unknown)
 Convert sample result ( x ) to a t test statistic
Hypothesis
Tests for 

σ Known σ Unknown

Consider the test

The decision rule is:
H0 : μ  μ 0
x  μ0
H1 : μ  μ0 Reject H0 if t   t n-1, α
s
(Assume the population is normal) n
 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
(σ Unknown)
(continued)
 For a two-tailed test:
Consider the test
H0 : μ  μ0 (Assume the population is normal,
and the population variance is
H1 : μ  μ0 unknown)

The decision rule is:

x  μ0 x  μ0
Reject H 0 if t    t n -1 , α/2 or if t   t n -1 , α/2
s s
n n
 Example: Two-Tail Test
( Unknown)

The average cost of a

hotel room in New York
is said to be $168 per
night. A random sample
of 25 hotels resulted in
x = $172.50 and H0: μ = 168
s = $15.40. Test at the H1: μ  168
 = 0.05 level.
(Assume the population distribution is normal)
 Example Solution:
Two-Tail Test

H0: μ = 168 /2=.025 /2=.025

H1: μ  168

  = 0.05 Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

t n-1,α/2
-t n-1,α/2 0
 n = 25 -2.0639 1.46
2.0639
  is unknown, so x μ 172.50  168
t n1    1.46
use a t statistic s 15.40
n 25
 Critical Value:
t24 , .025 = ± 2.0639 Do not reject H0: not sufficient evidence that
true mean cost is different than $168
 Tests of the Population Proportion
Ch.15 pg 543-546

 Involves categorical variables

 Two possible outcomes
 “Success” (a certain characteristic is present)
 “Failure” (the characteristic is not present)

 Fraction or proportion of the population in the

“success” category is denoted by P
 Assume sample size is large
 Proportions
(continued)
 Sample proportion in the success category is
denoted by p̂

ˆp  x  number of successesin sample


n samplesize

 When nP and n(1 – P) ≥ 5, p̂ can be

approximated by a normal distribution with
mean and standard deviation

μp̂  P P(1 P)
σ p̂ 
n
 Hypothesis Tests for Proportions

 The sampling
distribution of p̂ is Hypothesis
approximately Tests for P
normal, so the test
statistic is a z
nP(1 – P) > 9 nP(1 – P) < 9
value:

pˆ  P0
z
Not discussed
in this chapter
P0 (1 P0 )
n
 Example: Z Test for Proportion

A marketing company
claims that it receives
8% responses from its
mailing. To test this
claim, a random sample
of 500 were surveyed
Check:
with 25 responses. Test
Our approximation for P is
at the  = .05 p̂ = 25/500 = .05
significance level.
nP(1 - P) = (500)(.05)(.95)
= 23.75 > 9 
 Z Test for Proportion: Solution
H0: P = .08 Test Statistic:
H1: P  .08 pˆ  P0 .05  .08
z   2.47
P0 (1 P0 ) .08(1 .08)
 = .05
n = 500, p̂ = .05
n 500
Critical Values: ± 1.96 Decision:
Reject Reject Reject H0 at  = .05
Conclusion:
.025 .025
There is sufficient
-1.96 0 1.96 z evidence to reject the
-2.47 company’s claim of 8%
response rate.
 p-Value Solution
(continued)
Calculate the p-value and compare to 
(For a two sided test the p-value is always two sided)

Do not reject H0
Reject H0 Reject H0 p-value = .0136:
/2 = .025 /2 = .025
P(Z  2.47)  P(Z  2.47)
.0068 .0068
 2(.0068)  0.0136
-1.96 0 1.96

Z = -2.47 Z = 2.47

Reject H0 since p-value = .0136 <  = .05

 Type II Error
Assume the population is normal and the population
variance is known. Consider the test
H0 : μ  μ 0
H1 : μ  μ0
The decision rule is:
x  μ0
Reject H0 if z   z α or Reject H0 if x  xc  μ0  Zασ/ n
σ/ n
If the null hypothesis is false and the true mean is μ*,
then the probability of type II error is
 xc  μ * 
β  P(x  x c | μ  μ*)  P z  

 σ / n 
 Type II Error Example
 Type II error is the probability of failing
to reject a false H0
Suppose we fail to reject H0: μ  52
when in fact the true
c mean is μ* = 50
x

50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0: μ  52 xc H0 : μ  52
 Type II Error Example
(continued)

 Suppose we do not reject H0: μ  52 when in fact

the true mean is μ* = 50
This is the range of x where
This is the true H0 is not rejected
distribution of x if μ = 50

50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0: μ  52 H0 : μ  52
xc
 Type II Error Example
(continued)

 Suppose we do not reject H0: μ  52 when

in fact the true mean is μ* = 50

Here, β = P( x  x c ) if μ* = 50

 β

50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0: μ  52 H0 : μ  52
xc
 Calculating β
 Suppose n = 64 , σ = 6 , and  = .05
σ 6
x c  μ0  z α  52  1.645  50.766
n 64
(for H0 : μ  52)

So β = P( x  50.766 ) if μ* = 50

50 50.766 52
Reject Do not reject
H0: μ  52 H0 : μ  52
xc
 Calculating β
(continued)

 Suppose n = 64 , σ = 6 , and  = .05

 
 50.766  50 
P( x  50.766 | μ*  50)  P z    P(z  1.02)  .5  .3461  .1539
 6 
 64 

Probability of
type II error:
 β = .1539

50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0: μ  52 H0 : μ  52
xc
 Power of the Test Example
If the true mean is μ* = 50,
 The probability of Type II Error = β = 0.1539
 The power of the test = 1 – β = 1 – 0.1539 = 0.8461

Actual Situation
Decision H0 True H0 False
Key:
Outcome Do Not No error Type II Error
(Probability) Reject H0 1 -  = 0.95 β = 0.1539

Reject H0 Type I Error No Error

 = 0.05 1 - β = 0.8461

(The value of β and the power will be different for each μ*)
 Chapter Summary

 Addressed hypothesis testing methodology

 Performed Z Test for the mean (σ known)
 Discussed critical value and p-value approaches to
hypothesis testing
 Performed one-tail and two-tail tests
 Performed t test for the mean (σ unknown)
 Performed Z test for the proportion
 Discussed type II error and power of the test