ONandem Eshustmeutt An expubneat whose put

callol s
Can not Phdicteol in evane
Rantom fgtutment .
Thaonfng
eibiol olle.

Eveub The pesibiltiy

ase seld fo be
ohea than

Result from
52 Caud, any casel
well cheule he 52
tn the clsewso that
eveuts

érludve evubi vuts ase calleel

Mutually
erelusve orhcanpatke
smuknaly ef them doy net precksle
to
ofhess, In oher wors- Ip
oemyent of all thu no
the dis foint he. hru ls
commo

subsets
then hese evus e callecl
clemeut betweeA them, Can nat
Mutrally eylPAneS Pkafp sian eouls.
 Gample For tasfane tn he
the the fau mayked 5
One lie
anel fau 5
(empalebla efnce lce
On eaeh die.
Pos sitle to get fa 5

Eshaustive reuta,-
Erenti- Evut esolot fo b exhas
fncludy all po ssibillHeg ul
-ttve
that it csates he

EAompli- n toecing coin, thepocusnec

ef aeate the exhawtive
Head oA Tall

fasasske he haßfuy
Fveuabl fveuts he tralu which ental! eveut.
eveut ase said to be farouable
die 3 s b.

Can not
zero not esult
eubical die cm
 exclusi re anel outboms
them ae favousable
Banelom eyprimeut anl h e
A, then the pobab:lly
an evet
to the
hepeniy
he aent

Lonp kmenka éveub

anel only

<PIA)+PÐ-ÍS

Compoune Eveds- lhen to on mose ereut Hot

tabe's plae fa selaton wih eah ofhea they
called lompouncl evets.
Gumnf In fuo ose a coin ,
erett.
Lonáng
he
y ad
compounol
 4

hdoltisn Thonm
evuta ae not exelusive then
B
PAUB) = PlA) + PLS) - pANB)
ANB
mubnally clestre thea
PIAVB) = PIA) +P 6)

Nete' amel

Probabiliy then

bependeutt d Tadtbncut .evuta Tavo erutz ane

Loic o be the the
seonl defeud
Mst Reel
fon tie otomnyef the jtst.
we aw a ca o cast from a Pache,
he prebat i is 19/52. Bt i we aauw anohes
the
ia e he a casel

hact his tme is 12/5L ) and net 13/s2- Hwerer

We Be cond
the pro bability 13/52 .
 Note)I two eruth au thcabankut
PANB)= PlA PB)

the chauuy hat some outome Dcws

oced.
anoths eveut fas also
ten sfetiel as the B

A
whetten
a4 PCB|A) whes the pababiiy
that
B dafnds On

PCADB)
P(B|A) =
P(A)

Joint Probbity wlhen the panbabiig two moae eveuts

tme fs miaswned
gnl at fhegm
emts
Polakity prohabiliy
A4nd B, i denteel hy dt
PCANB).
 Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' Theorem is named after Reverend Thomas Bayes. It is a very important theorem in
mathematics/management science to find the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of
conditions that might be related to that event. It is a further case of conditional probability.

For example, There are 3 bags, each containing some white marble and some black marble in each bag. If
a white nmarble is drawn at random. What is the probability of finding this white marble from the first bag?
In cases like such, we use Bayes Theorem. It is used where the probability of occurrence of a particular
event is calculated based on other conditions called conditional probability.
What is Bayes' Theorem?

Bayes theorem is also known as the Bayes Rule or Bayes Law. It is used to determine the conditional
probability of event A when eventB has already happened. The general statement of Bayes' theorem is
"The conditional probability of an event A, given the occurrence of another event B, is equal to the
product of the event of B, given A and the probability of Adivided by the probability of event B. " i.e.

P(4/B) =:P(BIA)*P(4)
P(B)
where,

P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of events A and B

P(A/B) is the probability of event A when event B happens

P(B/A)is the probability of event B when A happens