Chapter 4:

Rainfall-Runoff
Modeling
Lesson goals
At the end of this topic, student should be able to:-

Know the rainfall-runoff relationship

Apply and analysis the concept of

rainfall-runoff analysis
 Introduction
In many hydrologic engineering designs, we need to predict peak discharge or
hydrograph resulting from a certain type of storm event. For this purpose, some
kind of rainfall-runoff model is needed to translate rainfall input to produce
discharge hydrograph.

Reliable estimates of stream flow generated from catchments are required as part
of the information sets that help policy makers make informed decisions on water
planning and management. The characteristics of the streamflow time series that
influence water resources system modelling and planning can include the
sequencing of flows on daily and longer time steps, spatial and temporal
variability of flows, seasonal distribution and characteristics of high and low flows.

A range of methods are available to estimate streamflow from catchments, using

observed data wherever possible, or estimating by empirical and statistical
techniques, and more commonly using rainfall-runoff models.
Introduction
Rainfall Runoff
Watershed

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Rainfall Rainfall-Runoff Runoff

Model
 Introduction
The rainfall runoff model is one of the most frequently used events in hydrology.

It determines the runoff signal which leaves the watershed from the rainfall
signal received by the basin. Numerous methods have been developed by
different researchers to simulate the rainfall runoff process. However most of
the methods are lump in nature.

In the lump approach, average rainfall and uniform catchment characteristics

are considered in developing the model. If the spatial variations of rainfall and
catchment characteristics are significant, lump approach will not give
accurate results.
 Introduction
Design Rainfall

A hypothetical rainfall event corresponding to a specified return period is usually

the basis for the design and analysis of stormwater management systems.

The return period of rainfall event is not equal to the return period of the resulting
runoff.

Historical rainfall record is used as input to a rainfall-runoff model; the resulting

runoff is analyzed to determine the hydrograph corresponding to a given return
period.

Synthetic design are characterized by their return period, duration, depth,

temporal distribution, and spatial distribution.
 Rainfall Analysis
Return period

The return period of a design rainfall should be selected on the basis of economic
efficiency. Usually selection based on level of protection. Typical return period
are given in the table below:-

Land use Return period (years)

Minor drainage system
-Residential 2-5
-high value general commercial area 2-10
-airport (terminal, road, aprons) 2-10
-high value downtown business areas 5-10
Major drainage systems Up to 100 years
 Probability

The chance of occurrence of a flood of a return period T, in a unit time is 1/T, that is the
probability of occurrence. It is referred to as the probability of annual exceedence.

1
P  X  xT  
T

P  X  xT each year for N years  1  P 

N

P  X  xT at least once in N years  1  1  P 

N

8
 Example 4.1

Example 4.1
Estimate the probability that the annual maximum discharge Q on the
Guadalupe River will exceed 50,000 cfs at least once during the next three
years.

1
P Q  50,000    0.195
5.125

P Q  50,000 cfs at least once during the next 3 years  1  1  0.195 

3

P Q  50,000 cfs at least once during the next 3 years  0.48

9
 Example 4.2
A culvert has been designed for a 50-year exceedence interval. What is the
probability that one flood or more of the design capacity will occur in the 100-
year lifetime of the structure?

N = 100 years

1
P Q  design capacity    0.02
50

P At least once in 100 years  1  1  0.02

100

P At least once in 100 years  0.87

10
 Example 4.3
The spillway of a dam has a service life of 75 years. A risk of 5% for the failing of
the structure (exceeding of the flood capacity) has been considered acceptable.
For what return period should the spillway capacity be designed?

N = 75 years

P At least once in 75 years  0.05

1  1  P   0.05
75

P  0.000684

1
T  1460 years
P

11
 Return period
The excessive precipitation as defined by the National Weather Service is
precipitation that falls at a rate equalling or exceeding indicated by the following
formula:

p  t  20 …………………………….Equation 4.1
100
where: p = precipitation, in
t = precipitation duration, min

The precipitation values are arranged in descending order and the return
period for each value is obtained using the formula below

T  n 1 ………………………Equation 4.2
m
where: T = return period, year
m = rank of the data
n = total number of years of data in the record

The precipitation depths can be converted to intensities by:

60  p
i
t
 Example 4.4
For the precipitation data arranged for different durations in the next page table,
please prepare intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year
frequencies.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Rank Precipitation (in) of Duration of: Return
m 5 min 10 min 15 min 20 min 30 min 60 min Period
1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23 20 years
2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5
3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7 10 years
4 0.36 0.60 0.76 0.86 1.06 0.91 5.8
5 0.35 0.60 0.73 0.86 0.83 . 4.6
6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 . 3.8
7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 . 3.3
8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.78 . 2.9
9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.67 0.67 . 2.6
10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 . 2.3
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
22 0.13 0.23 0.32 0.40 0.40 0.43 1.05
Example 4.4
By using interpolation method, values of precipitation for return periods of
20-year and 10-year can be obtained as follows:
No. Precipitation (in) of Duration of: Return
5 min 10 min 15 min 20 min 30 min 60 min Period
1 0.39 0.65 0.87 1.04 1.43 2.09 20
2 0.38 0.63 0.81 0.95 1.28 1.75 10

Then, converted the precipitation depths to intensities

Return Intensity (in/hour) of Duration of:

Period 5 min 10 min 15 min 20 min 30 min 60 min
20 4.68 3.90 3.48 3.12 2.86 2.09
10 4.56 3.78 3.24 2.85 2.56 1.75

5.00

4.00 10-year
Intensity (in/hr)

20-year
3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Duration (min)
Modeling Considerations
Development of a rainfall-runoff model depends on
(1) Time scale
(2) Basin scale

The choice of the rainfall-runoff model will vary based on the purpose
the modelling is being done for, e.g., to understand seasonal low
flow characteristics for an in-stream environmental need; or to
assess over-bank flow frequency; or to estimate overall catchment
yield on an average annual basis.
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(i) Rational Method
 First proposed by Kuichling in 1889
 Qp = k C i A
where k = unit conversion factor,
1.008 for English unit; 0.278 for metric unit
Qp = peak discharge (ft3/s or m3/s);
i = rainfall intensity (in/hr or mm/hr)
A = drainage area (acres or km2)

 Note: i = average intensity of rainfall corresponding to the

duration of time-to-concentration.
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(ii) Time of Concentration Methods

It is an elusive hydrologic variable and it is very difficult to measure.

 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(ii) Time of Concentration Methods
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(ii) Time of Concentration Methods
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(ii) Time of Concentration Methods

Rainfall-Runoff
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(ii) Time of Concentration Methods
Comparison of Time-of-
Concentration Models
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(iii) Time-Area Methods

 Can be considered as an extension of the rational method in which

rainfall intensity in not uniform over the storm duration
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(iii) Time-Area Methods

Figure 4.1. Discharge hydrograph by Time-Area Method corresponding to types of

basin
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis
(iii) Time-Area
4 t

Rainfall intensity I
Methods t

Isochrones

3 t A4
I2
I3


I1 I4 Area A1

2
t
t
0 t 2 t 3 t 4 t
Time t A2 A3

(a) Rainfall Histogram (b) Catchment Isochrones

Runoff (m3/s)
Cumulative Area

q2
q3

q4
q1
t q5

0 t 2 t 3 t 4 t
Time t Time t

(c) Time-Area Curve (d) Runoff Hydrograph

Figure 4.2: Time–Area Method

 Example 4.1

A 100-ha catchment is estimated to have the following time-area relationship,

with the rainfall-excess distribution is shown in the table 2. Estimate the runoff
using the time-area method

Table 1 Table 2
Time (min) Contributing Time (min) Average
area (ha) intensity
(mm/h)
0 0
0-5 132
5 3
5-10 84
10 9
10-15 60
15 25
15-20 36
20 51
25 91
30 100
 Example 4.1
Solution
Time ha.mm/
The expected
(min) h m3/s
0 132 84 60 32 runoff
5 3 396 396 1.10 hydrograph has
10 6 792 252 1044 2.90 a time base of
15 16 2112 504 180 2796 7.77
20 26 3432 1344 360 96 5232 14.53
50 min and a
25 40 5280 2184 960 192 8616 23.94 peak runoff rate
30 9 1188 3360 1560 512 6620 18.39 of 23.94 m3/s
756 2400 832 3988 11.08
540 1280 1820 5.06
288 288 0.80
*Convert
30 ha.mm/h m3/s
0.002778
25

20
Runoff (m3/s)

15

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (min)
 Rainfall-Runoff Analysis

The Hydrologic Engineering Center has developed the following synthetic time-
are relationship based on empirical analyses of several catchments.

When dealing with different rainfall duration; construct a new hydrograph (e.g.
to derive 3-hr UH from 2-hr UH)

Represent the response of the basin to and effective rainfall event of infinite
duration. S-Curve allows construction of a UH of any duration
Rainfall-Runoff Analysis

S-Curve hydrograph

Derivation of an S-Curve
hydrograph
 Example 4.1
Convert the UH-2hr to a UH-3hr using the S-Curve

Time 2-hr UH
(hr) (m3/s.cm)
0 0
1 75
2 250
3 300
4 275
5 200
6 100
7 75
8 50
9 25
10 0
 Example 4.1
Solution

2‐hr UH S‐Curve (S1) S‐curve lagged 3‐hr S1 ‐ S2 3‐hr (S1‐S2) x 2/3

Time (hr) 2‐hr lagged UH's (m3/s.cm)
(m3/s.cm) (m3/s.cm) (S2) (m3/s.cm) (m3/s.cm) (m3/s.cm)

0 0 0 0 0.0
1 75 75 75 50.0
2 250 0 250 250 166.7
3 300 75 375 0 375 250.0
4 275 250 0 525 75 450 300.0
5 200 300 75 575 250 325 216.7
6 100 275 250 0 625 375 250 166.7
7 75 200 300 75 650 525 125 83.3
8 50 100 275 250 0 675 575 100 66.7
9 25 75 200 300 75 675 625 50 33.3
10 0 50 100 275 250 675 650 25 16.7
1350 CHECKING 1350
 Example 4.1

800 350
2-hr
700 300
3-hr
600
Discharge (m3/s.cm)

Discharge (m3/s.cm)
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
200 S1 S2

100 50

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time (hour) Time (hour)
 Model Objectives
There are a number of different purposes that a rainfall runoff model may be
applied within an overall water resources or catchment modeling framework.

Most of the purposes of rainfall-runoff modeling relate to providing information

to support decision making for some water management policy. In particular,
this can involve:

i. Understanding the catchment yield, and how this varies in time and
space, particularly in response to climate variability: seasonally, inter-
annually, and inter-decadally
ii. Estimating the relative contributions of individual catchments to water
availability over a much larger region, e.g. valley or basin scale.
iii. Estimating how this catchment yield and water availability might
change over time in response to changes in the catchment, such as
increasing development of farm dams, or changes in land-use and land
management.
iv. Infill gaps caused by missing or poor quality data in an observed data
series for a gauged catchment.
v. Estimate flows for a gauged catchment for periods before the observed
flow record started or after when the observed flow record ends.
vi. Estimate flows for an ungauged catchment.
Selection of gauge station
The purpose of rainfall runoff modeling is to produce an estimate of the runoff
at a single location where there is a stream flow gauge.

If this is the case, the calibration and validation process may be performed
for the single gauged catchment (to infill missing data during the period of
record, to extend the period of record at the single gauge).

A much more common situation is that flow time series estimates are
required at several locations and that gauged stream flow data is also
available at several locations. The locations where flow estimates are
required may or may not overlap with the locations where the flow data is
also available.
Selection of gauge station

Figure 4.3. Example of rainfall gauge station,

picture source; http://www.agu.org/journals/wr/wr1206/2011WR011301/figures.shtml
 Collect and review data
The amount and quality of data available to develop a model should be
determined at the outset of the project.

This can influence the selection of models, the performance criteria, and the
approach to calibrate models. A bare minimum data set sufficient to make an
approximate estimate of mean annual catchment yield would include
catchment area along with spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and
potential evapotranspiration (PET).

A comprehensive data set would include;

i. long-term streamflow measurements
ii. long-term rainfall data
iii. PET data
iv. land use coverage
v. vegetation cover
vi. impervious area information,
at one or more locations within the catchment along with including
changes over time.

The quality of the data should be reviewed prior to using to detect errors and
understand uncertainties that may influence estimates.
Collect and review data
Climatic data is the most important driver of any rainfall runoff modelling
process. The calibration and validation of models also involves comparison to
observed streamflow data. Major causes of difficulty in calibrating rainfall-runoff
models are errors and uncertainties in the input data (see Kavetski et al, 2003).

Investigations into data to be used for rainfall runoff modeling should include
checks of:
i. Stationarity of the data time series , i.e. has there been any systematic
or step change in the statistical properties over the time of data
collection, and if so why;
ii. Spatial coherence of data, i.e., is the data consistent with regional
spatial and temporal patterns and trends;
iii. Accuracy of the spatial location of the gauging site;
iv. Consistency in the approach used to date and time stamp the data,
particularly for data provided by different agencies;
v. Procedures use for spatially interpolation of point observations to
gridded data estimates or estimated series across catchment areas

**One major factor which will apply across all types of time series data used is
that the time base must be kept consistent so that the data applies to the same
time period. An example is where flow data time steps should be matched to
the rainfall data time step.
Collect and review data

Figure 4.4. Example of rainfall data

Conceptual of R-R modeling
Conceptual rainfall runoff models represent the conversion of rainfall to
runoff, evapotranspiration, movement of water to and from groundwater
systems and change in the volume of water within the catchment using a
series of mathematical relationships.

Conceptual rainfall runoff models almost always represent storage of water

within the catchment using several conceptual stores that can notionally
represent water held within the soil moisture, vegetation, groundwater or
within stream channels within the catchment. Fluxes of water between these
stores and in and out of the model are controlled by mathematical equations.

There is many rainfall-runoff

models such as AWBM
(Boughton 2004), IHACRES
(Croke et al. 2006), Sacramento
(Burnash et al. 1973), SIMHYD
(Chiew et al. 2002), SMARG
(Vaze et al., 2004) and GR4J
(Perrin et al. 2003). The input
data into the models are daily
rainfall and PET, and the models
simulate daily runoff. Figure 4.4. Conceptual model, Picture source: Hydraulic Works
and Hydrology, Department DICAM - Faculty of Engineering - University of
Bologna
 Calibration and validation

Model calibration is a process of systematically adjusting model

parameter values to get a set of parameters which provides the best
estimate of the observed streamflow (in the case of rainfall-runoff models).

The term “validation”, as applied to models, typically means confirmation

to some degree that the calibration of the model is acceptable for the
intended purpose (Refsgaard and Henriksen, 2004).

In the context of rainfall runoff modelling, validation is a process of using

the calibrated model parameters to simulate runoff over an independent
period outside the calibration period (if enough data is available) to
determine the suitability of the calibrated model for predicting runoff over
any period outside the calibration period. If there is not enough data
available, the validation may be performed by testing shorter periods
within the full record.
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Calibration and validation
It is a very common situation in a project that involves rainfall runoff modeling
for flow time series to be required for several catchments or sub-catchments
within the model domain and for data to be available from two or more
stream flow gauges to facilitate calibration and validation.

At locations where gauged flows are available and flow estimates are
required, two options are available to the modeler:
a) The rainfall runoff models may be calibrated independently for each
gauged catchment. In this case, independent parameter sets will be
derived for the rainfall runoff models of each catchment; or
b) A joint calibration may be performed, with rainfall runoff models calibrated
with consistent parameters to fit to the gauge records from two or more
gauges. In this case, a single set of rainfall runoff model parameters will
be produced for all of the catchments that represents a compromise to fit
the flows at all of the gauges within that group.

The advantage of the joint calibration approach is that, assuming some

degree of homogeneity in the rainfall runoff response of the selected gauged
catchments, the parameter sets produced should be more robust when
applied to other catchments with similar response that were not used for the
calibration.