0% found this document useful (0 votes)
42 views51 pages

Lecture 2 - Time Value of Money - Chapter 5

Uploaded by

remover.units1y
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
42 views51 pages

Lecture 2 - Time Value of Money - Chapter 5

Uploaded by

remover.units1y
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 51

FINA1003/FINA1310 CORPORATE FINANCE

Faculty of Economics and Finance


University of Hong Kong

Dr. Shiyang Huang

Lecture 2: The Time Value of Money


Course Overview
• Introduction

• Part I: Valuation
• Time Value of Money, Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation, Bond and Stock Valuation.

• Part II: Risk and Return


• Historical Risk and Return Relationships, CAPM.

• Part III: Capital Budgeting


• Real Investment Decisions, Cost of Capital.

• Part IV: Financing Decisions


• Raising Capital, Tradeoff between Equity and Debt.
Key Takeaways

• Cash Flows and Assets

• Future Value (FV) and Compounding


𝑡
FV = PV 1 + 𝑟

• Present Value (PV) and Discounting

• Interest Rate

• Number of Periods

Reading: Chapter 5
Goal of Today
• Understand the Time Value of Money
• Draw timeline under each context

• Understand the power of compounding


• Calculate compound interest and simple interest

• Be able to quantitatively link FV (future value), PV (present


value), r (interest rate) and T (number of periods)
• Given three of them, be able to compute the fourth

• Focus on cases with single and known cash flows


Key Takeaways
• Cash Flows and Assets
• Future Value (FV) and Compounding
• Present Value (PV) and Discounting
• Interest Rate
• Number of Periods

Reading: Chapter 5
Timeline

CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4

• Unless otherwise stated, t=0 represents today


• Unless otherwise stated, cash flows occur at the end of a time interval
• Cash inflow are treated as positive amounts, while cash outflows are
treated as negative amounts.
Basic Definitions

• Present Value: earlier money on a timeline


• Future Value: later money on a timeline
• Interest rate: “exchange rate” between earlier money and the later money
• Discount rate
• Cost of Capital
• Opportunity cost of capital
• Required return
What is Time Value of Money?

• Your choice:
• 1,000,000 (A) vs. 1,050,000, (B)?
What is Time Value of Money?
• This question is essentially about the comparing an early
money (1,000,000) and a late money (1,050,000).

• There is one challenge in this question.


• Money occurs at different time

• How to solve this question?


• We can convert the early money to the future value.
What is Time Value of Money?
Future Values and Interest Rate
• Future Value: later money on a timeline. Amount to
which an investment will grow after earning interest.

• Simple Interest: Interest paid (earned) on only the


original amount, or principal, borrowed (lent).

• Compound Interest: interest paid (earned) on any


previous interest earned, as well as on the principal
borrowed (lent).
Simple Interest
• Simple Interest: Interest paid (earned) on only the original
amount, or principal, borrowed (lent).
Future Value: Simple Interest

Formula

Future value using simple interest rate


= P0 (1 + t*i)

P0: Deposit today (t=0)


i: Interest Rate per Period
t: Number of Time Periods
Simple Interest – Example 1

• Assume that you deposit $1,000 in an account


earning 5% simple interest for 2 years. What is the
account balance at the end of the 2nd year?
• A 1,050

• B 1,100
• C 1,102.5
• D 1,125
Simple Interest – Example 1

• Assume that you deposit $1,000 in an account


earning 5% simple interest for 2 years. What is the
account balance at the end of the 2nd year?

Future value using simple interest rate


= P0(1 + t * i)
= $1,000(1 + 2*0.05)
= $1100
Compound Interest
• Compound Interest: interest paid (earned) on any previous
interest earned, as well as on the principal borrowed (lent).
Future Value – General Formula
• $1 today should be worth more than $1 in the future.
• Suppose the interest rate is 𝑟:
• $1 in Year 0 = $1 × 1 + 𝑟 in Year 1
2
• $1 in Year 0 = $1 × 1 + 𝑟 in Year 2
• ⁞
𝑇
• $1 in Year 0 = $1 × 1 + 𝑟 in Year T

• $1 today and any single choice on the right-hand side are


equivalent
• The choices on the right are Futures Values of $1 today
Future Value: Compound Interest

Formula

Future value using simple interest rate


= P0 *(1 + i)t

P0: Deposit today (t=0)


i: Interest Rate per Period
t: Number of Time Periods
Compound Interest – Example 1

• Assume that you deposit $1,000 in an account


earning 5% compound interest for 2 years. What is
the account balance at the end of the 2nd year?
• A 1,050

• B 1,100
• C 1,102.5
• D 1,125
Compound Interest – Example 1

• Assume that you deposit $1,000 in an account


earning 5% compound interest for 2 years. What is
the account balance at the end of the 2nd year?

Future value using compound interest rate


= P0 *(1 + i)t
= $1,000*(1 + 0.05)2
= $1102.5
The Effect of Compound
• Simple Interest

• FV with simple interest = 1000 + 50 + 50 = 1100

• Compound Interest

• FV with compound interest = 1102.5

• What is the Effect of Compounding?

• The extra 0.25 comes from the interest of 0.05(50) = 2.5


earned on the first interest payment
Future Values – Example 2
• Suppose you invest the $1000 from the previous example

(interest rate=5%) for 5 years. How much would you have?

• FV with simple interest = ?

• FV with compound interest = ?


Future Values – Example 2
• Suppose you invest the $1000 from the previous example
(interest rate=5%) for 5 years. How much would you have?
• FV with simple interest = ?
• Answer: FV=1000×(1+5%×5)=1250

• FV with compound interest = ?


• Answer: FV=1000 ×(1+5%)5 =1276.30

• Difference = 1276.30 – 1250 = 26.30


• One finding: the effect of compounding is small for a small
number of periods but increases as the number of periods
increases.
Future Value – General Formula
• Future value with compound interest PV FV
• FV = PV 1 + 𝑟 𝑡

• Future Value Interest Factor


0 t
The “Exchange Rate” between a dollar today and the dollar at time t

= (1 + r)t
• Future value with simple interest
• FV = PV (1 + 𝑟 × 𝑡)
Comparative Statics
• For a given interest rate – the longer the time period, the
future value is higher or lower?
• Answer: higher (A) vs. lower (B)?

• For a given time period – the higher the interest rate, the
future value is higher or lower?
• Answer: higher (A) vs. lower (B)?
Different Periods and Interest Rates
Key Takeaways
• Cash Flows and Assets
• Future Value (FV) and Compounding
• Present Value (PV) and Discounting
• Interest Rate
• Number of Periods

Reading: Chapter 5
Present Value
• $1 today compounded at 10% interest is worth $1.1 next year

• What is the present value of $1.1 next year?


• What is the present value of $1 next year?

• $1 today is equivalent to $1×(1+𝑟)𝑡 in t years

• $1 in t years is equivalent to ____ Today?


• Answer:
Present Value
• Remember Exchange Rate from PV to FV
$𝒕
= 𝟏+𝒓 𝒕
$𝟎
• What is the Exchange Rate from FV to PV? PV FV
$𝟎 𝟏
=
$𝒕 𝟏+𝒓 𝒕
0 t
• The Basic PV Equation
𝑭𝑽
𝑷𝑽 = 𝒕
𝟏+𝒓

• When we talk about discounting, we mean finding the present value of


some future amount
• When we talk about the “value” of something, we are talking about the
present value unless we specifically indicate that we want the future value
Present Value – Example 1
• Suppose you need $10,000 in one year for the down payment on
a new car. If you can earn 7% annually on a ETF ABC, how
much do you need to invest today?
• A 10,700

• B 10,000

• C 9,345

• D 9,000

• E 8,000

PV = 10,000 / (1.07)1 = 9,345.79


Present Value – Example 2
• Your parents set up a trust fund for you 10 years ago
that is now worth $19,671.51. If the fund earned 7% per
year, how much did your parents invest?

PV = 19,671.51 / (1.07)10 =10,000


Present Value – Example 3
• Your neighbor wants to begin saving for her daughter’s
college education and you estimate that she will need
HK$180,000 in 17 years. The interest rate is 8% per
year, how much does your neighbor need to invest
today?

PV = 180,000 / (1.08)17 = 48,648.41


Different Periods and Interest Rates
• For a given interest rate – the longer the time period, the
present value is higher or lower?
• Answer: higher (A) vs. lower (B)?

• For a given time period – the higher the interest rate, the
present value is higher or lower?
• Answer: higher (A) vs. lower (B)?

𝑭𝑽
𝑷𝑽 = 𝒕
𝟏+𝒓
Different Periods and Interest Rates
Key Takeaways
• Cash Flows and Assets
• Future Value (FV) and Compounding
• Present Value (PV) and Discounting
• Interest Rate
• Number of Periods

Reading: Chapter 5
The Basic FV Equation

• 𝐹𝑉 = 𝑃𝑉 1 + 𝑟 𝑡

• There are four parts to this equation

• PV, FV, r and t

• If we know any three, we can solve for the fourth


Interest Rate
• Many names: Interest Rate, Discount Rate, Cost of
Capital, Opportunity Cost of Capital, Required Return…

• We often will want to know the “implied rate of interest” of


an investment

• Rearrange the basic PV equation and solve for r


• FV = PV(1 + r)t
• r = (FV / PV)1/t – 1
Interest Rate – Example 1

• We are looking at an investment that will pay $1,200


in 5 years if we invest $1,000 today. What is the
implied rate of interest?

• r = (FV / PV)1/t – 1
• r = (1,200 / 1,000)1/5 – 1 = .03714 = 3.714%
Interest Rate – Example 2

• Suppose we are offered an investment that will allow


us to double our money in 6 years. What is the
implied rate of interest?

• r = (FV / PV)1/t – 1
• r = (2/1)1/6 – 1 = 12.25%
Key Takeaways
• Cash Flows and Assets
• Future Value (FV) and Compounding
• Present Value (PV) and Discounting
• Interest Rate
• Number of Periods

Reading: Chapter 5
Number of Periods

• Start with the basic equation and solve for t

(remember your logs)

• 𝐹𝑉 = 𝑃𝑉 1 + 𝑟 𝑡

• t = ln(FV / PV) / ln(1 + r)


Number of Periods – Example 1

• You want to purchase a new car and you are willing


to pay $20,000. If you can invest at 10% per year and
you currently have $15,000, how long will it be before
you have enough money to pay cash for the car?

• t = ln(FV / PV) / ln(1 + r)

• t = ln(20,000 / 15,000) / ln(1 + 0.1) =3.02 years


Double Your Money!!!

Quick! How long does it take to double $5,000 at a


compound rate of 12% per year (approx.)?

We will use the “Rule-of-72”.

ln 2 0.72
𝑇= ≈
ln(1 + 𝑟) 𝑟
Rule of 72

• Question 1: The economy of Hong Kong grew by 2.4% in


2014. If this growth rate continues, how long will it take
for the Hong Kong economy to double in size?
Answer: A (30 years) vs. B (20 years) vs. C (40 years)?

• Question 2: The value of your friend’s house doubled in the


past twenty years. What was the approximate value of the
growth rate in house price per year?
Answer: A (2%) vs. B (3.5%) vs. C (4%)?
Key Takeaways
• Cash Flows and Assets
• Future Value (FV) and Compounding
• Present Value (PV) and Discounting
• Interest Rate
• Number of Periods

FV = PV 1 + 𝑟 𝑡

• How about an extension with multiple cash flows?

Reading: Chapter 6
PV and FV of Multiple Cash Flows
• PV Multiple Cash Flows

0 1 2 3

C1 C2 Ct
PV(C1)
PV(C2)
PV(C3)
PV(Ct)

PV(Total CF)
PV and FV of Multiple Cash Flows
Dividend History Ex-Div. Date Amount Type Yield Change Decl. Date Rec. Date Pay. Date Details

for Apple, Inc. 11/3/2016 $0.57 Quarter 2.1% N/A 10/25/2016 11/7/2016 11/10/2016 Details

(AAPL)
8/4/2016 $0.57 Quarter 2.2% N/A 7/26/2016 8/8/2016 8/11/2016 Details

5/5/2016 $0.57 Quarter 2.4% +9.6% 4/26/2016 5/9/2016 5/12/2016 Details


Ticker | Expand Research on AAPL
Price: 120.08 | Annualized 2/4/2016 $0.52 Quarter 2.2% N/A 1/26/2016 2/8/2016 2/11/2016 Details
Dividend: $2.28 | Dividend
11/5/2015 $0.52 Quarter 1.7% N/A 10/27/2015 11/9/2015 11/12/2015 Details
Yield: 1.9%
8/6/2015 $0.52 Quarter 1.8% N/A 7/21/2015 8/10/2015 8/13/2015 Details

5/7/2015 $0.52 Quarter 1.7% +10.6% 4/27/2015 5/11/2015 5/14/2015 Details

2/5/2015 $0.47 Quarter 1.6% N/A 1/27/2015 2/9/2015 2/12/2015 Details

11/6/2014 $0.47 Quarter 1.7% N/A 10/20/2014 11/10/2014 11/13/2014 Details

8/7/2014 $0.47 Quarter 2% N/A 7/22/2014 8/11/2014 8/14/2014 Details

5/8/2014 $3.29 Quarter 11% +7.9% 4/23/2014 5/12/2014 5/15/2014 Details

2/6/2014 $3.05 Quarter 2.4% N/A 1/27/2014 2/10/2014 2/13/2014 Details

11/6/2013 $3.05 Quarter 2.3% N/A 10/28/2013 11/11/2013 11/14/2013 Details

8/8/2013 $3.05 Quarter 2.6% N/A 7/23/2013 8/12/2013 8/15/2013 Details

5/9/2013 $3.05 Quarter 2.7% +15.1% 4/23/2013 5/13/2013 5/16/2013 Details

2/7/2013 $2.65 Quarter 2.3% N/A 1/23/2013 2/11/2013 2/14/2013 Details

11/7/2012 $2.65 Quarter 1.9% N/A 10/25/2012 11/12/2012 11/15/2012 Details

8/9/2012 $2.65 Quarter 1.7% N/A 7/24/2012 8/13/2012 8/16/2012 Details


PV and FV of Multiple Cash Flows
• FV Multiple Cash Flows
FV of Multiple Cash Flows
• Suppose you invest $500 in a mutual fund today and $600 in
one year. If the fund earns 9% annually, how much will you
have in 2 years?
FV of Multiple Cash Flows
• Suppose you invest $500 in a mutual fund today and $600 in
one year. If the fund earns 9% annually, how much will you
have in 2 years?

𝐹𝑉2 500 = $500 × 1.092 = $594.05


𝐹𝑉2 600 = $600 × 1.09 = $654
𝐹𝑉2 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 = $594.05 + $654 = $1248.05
Key Takeaways
• FV = PV(1 + r)t

𝐹𝑉
• 𝑃𝑉 =
1+𝑟 𝑡

• r = (FV / PV)1/t – 1

• t = ln(FV / PV) / ln(1 + r)

Reading for Next Lecture: Chapter 6

You might also like