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ST 1201: Probability Theory

Tutorial 0

June 11, 2020

1. Company XYZ operates two machines. The chance that the first machine
breaks down in the next day is 0.1. The chance that the second machine
breaks down in the next day is 0.13. The chance that both machines break
down in the next day is 0.04. Find:
(i) the probability that the first machine does not break down in the next
day
(ii) the probability that at least one machine breaks down in the next day
(iii) the probability that exactly one machine breaks down in the next day.
2. Among a large group of patients suffering from Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
(SLE), it is found that 26% suffer from both arthritis and kidney problems,
whereas 8% suffer from neither of these. The probability that a patient visits
suffers from kidney problems exceeds by 0.16 the probability that a patient suf-
fers from arthritis. Determine the probability that a randomly chosen member
of this group suffers from arthritis.
3. A public health researcher examines the medical records of a group of 937
men who died in 1999 and discovers that 210 of the men died from causes
related to heart disease. Moreover, 312 of the 937 men had at least one parent
who suffered from heart disease, and, of these 312 men, 102 died from causes
related to heart disease. Determine the probability that a man randomly
selected from this group died of causes related to heart disease, given that
neither of his parents suffered from heart disease.
4. A blood test indicates the presence of a particular disease 95% of the time
when the disease is actually present. The same test indicates the presence of
the disease 0.5% of the time when the disease is not present. One percent
of the population actually has the disease. Calculate the probability that a
person has the disease given that the test indicates the presence of the disease.
5. If P (A) = 61 , P (B) = 5
12
, and P (A|B) + P (B|A) = 7
10
. Find P (A ∩ B)
6. A, B and C are any three events on a sample space (Ω) : Show that
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∩ B) − P (B ∩ C) − P (A ∩ C) +
P (A ∩ B ∩ C)

1
ST 1201: Probability Theory Tutorial 0

7. Let A and B be two independent events such that the probability is 18 that
they will occur together and 43 that neither of them will occur. Find P (A) and
P (B).
8. You have a bag containing two white cats and three black cats. You let one
cat out of the bag. It runs up a tree before you get a chance to see its colour.
Then you let out another cat. This one bites you, and you see that its white.
What is the chance that the cat in the tree is also white?
Let C1 = the colour of the first cat that comes out of the bag. Let C2 = the
colour of second cat that comes out of the bag. Show that, regardless of the
numbers of cats in the bag, that P (C1 = W |C2 = W ) = P (C2 = W |C1 =
W ).
[Hint, assume n white cats and m black cats]. In general, under what conditions
on events A and B does P (A|B) = P (B|A)? Can you explain why this applies
above?
9. Let E1 , E2 , ..., Ek be a (finite) partition of sample space (Ω), and let F ⊆ Ω.
Prove that

k
X
P (F ) = P (F |Ei )P (Ei )
i=1

Also, if E1 , E2 , ..., Ek are disjoint, with P (Ei ) > 0 for i = 1, 2, ..., k and form
partition of F ⊆ Ω. Show that

P (F |Ei )P (Ei )
P (Ei |F ) = Pk
i=1 P (F |Ei )P (Ei )

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