Welcome to Gov 2003!

Fall 2021

Matthew Blackwell

Gov 2003 (Harvard)

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Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

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Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

• We should understand when our methods can have a causal

interpretation.

2/6
Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

• We should understand when our methods can have a causal

interpretation.

• Manksi: “data + assumptions = conclusions”

2/6
Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

• We should understand when our methods can have a causal

interpretation.

• Manksi: “data + assumptions = conclusions”

• Causal inference is about making assumptions and conclusions more

transparent.

2/6
Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

• We should understand when our methods can have a causal

interpretation.

• Manksi: “data + assumptions = conclusions”

• Causal inference is about making assumptions and conclusions more

transparent.

• The old way was kitchen sink regression + causal weasel words:

2/6
Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

• We should understand when our methods can have a causal

interpretation.

• Manksi: “data + assumptions = conclusions”

• Causal inference is about making assumptions and conclusions more

transparent.

• The old way was kitchen sink regression + causal weasel words:

• “associated with”, “leads to”, “the [causal?] effect of”, “[in|decreases]”,

“more likely”, “encourages”, “is linked to”, “correlated”, “predicts”

2/6
Why causal inference?

• Social science theories are almost always causal in nature.

• We should understand when our methods can have a causal

interpretation.

• Manksi: “data + assumptions = conclusions”

• Causal inference is about making assumptions and conclusions more

transparent.

• The old way was kitchen sink regression + causal weasel words:

• “associated with”, “leads to”, “the [causal?] effect of”, “[in|decreases]”,

“more likely”, “encourages”, “is linked to”, “correlated”, “predicts”

• Credibility/causal revolution: pick a causal estimand and a research

design to identify it.

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Staff

• Instructor: Matt Blackwell

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Staff

• Instructor: Matt Blackwell

• Teaching Fellow: Sooahn Shin

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Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

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Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

• Canvas site: place for all the course materials

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

• Canvas site: place for all the course materials

• Lecture notes, section materials, etc.

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

• Canvas site: place for all the course materials

• Lecture notes, section materials, etc.

• Gradescope: submitting assignments.

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

• Canvas site: place for all the course materials

• Lecture notes, section materials, etc.

• Gradescope: submitting assignments.

• Ed Board: discussion of course material.

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

• Canvas site: place for all the course materials

• Lecture notes, section materials, etc.

• Gradescope: submitting assignments.

• Ed Board: discussion of course material.

• Slack: logistical and social discussion, DMs for help/study groups

4/6
Teaching resources

• Lecture: general theoretical and practical issues.

• Goal is to be recorded and uploaded fairly quickly.

• Section: more targeted examples with an eye toward assignments.

• Canvas site: place for all the course materials

• Lecture notes, section materials, etc.

• Gradescope: submitting assignments.

• Ed Board: discussion of course material.

• Slack: logistical and social discussion, DMs for help/study groups

• Office Hours: ask even more questions.

4/6
Textbooks

• Responsibility = material covered in lectures.

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Textbooks

• Responsibility = material covered in lectures.

• Good books that I’ll draw upon:

5/6
Textbooks

• Responsibility = material covered in lectures.

• Good books that I’ll draw upon:

• Imbens & Rubin: fairly technical, but covers basics well.

5/6
Textbooks

• Responsibility = material covered in lectures.

• Good books that I’ll draw upon:

• Imbens & Rubin: fairly technical, but covers basics well.

• Hernan & Robins: slightly less technical, more biostat influence.

5/6
Textbooks

• Responsibility = material covered in lectures.

• Good books that I’ll draw upon:

• Imbens & Rubin: fairly technical, but covers basics well.

• Hernan & Robins: slightly less technical, more biostat influence.
• Angrist & Pischke: most readable, opinionated, a bit narrow.

5/6
Textbooks

• Responsibility = material covered in lectures.

• Good books that I’ll draw upon:

• Imbens & Rubin: fairly technical, but covers basics well.

• Hernan & Robins: slightly less technical, more biostat influence.
• Angrist & Pischke: most readable, opinionated, a bit narrow.
• Morgan & Winship: good combo of potential outcomes and graphs.

5/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

• Final collaborative project (40%)

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

• Final collaborative project (40%)

• short (< 20 pg) research paper either applying or extending a method

from the class.

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

• Final collaborative project (40%)

• short (< 20 pg) research paper either applying or extending a method

from the class.
• Milestones throughout term: find group by Sept 17th and submit
half-page proposal by Oct 10th

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

• Final collaborative project (40%)

• short (< 20 pg) research paper either applying or extending a method

from the class.
• Milestones throughout term: find group by Sept 17th and submit
half-page proposal by Oct 10th

• Participation (10%)

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

• Final collaborative project (40%)

• short (< 20 pg) research paper either applying or extending a method

from the class.
• Milestones throughout term: find group by Sept 17th and submit
half-page proposal by Oct 10th

• Participation (10%)

• Asking questions in lecture, section, asking/answering questions on

Ed/Slack.

6/6
Work

• Problem sets (50%)

• There will be 9 problem sets, you are only responsible for 8 (we’ll drop
the lowest score).
• Mix of analytic review questions and empirical applications of methods.
• Go out on Thursdays and due the following Wednesday, formatted nicely.

• Final collaborative project (40%)

• short (< 20 pg) research paper either applying or extending a method

from the class.
• Milestones throughout term: find group by Sept 17th and submit
half-page proposal by Oct 10th

• Participation (10%)

• Asking questions in lecture, section, asking/answering questions on

Ed/Slack.
• Not really intended to hurt your final grade.

6/6