Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11171-3

RESEARCH

Satellite‑based estimates of groundwater storage depletion

over Egypt
Ahmed Shalby · Sobhy R. Emara · Mohammed I. Metwally ·
Asaad M. Armanuos · Doaa E. El‑Agha · Abdelazim M. Negm ·
Tamer A. Gado

Received: 23 December 2022 / Accepted: 27 March 2023 / Published online: 20 April 2023
© The Author(s) 2023

Abstract An arid climate accompanied by a freshwa- Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
ter shortage plagued Egypt. It has resorted to ground- mission enables a novel consistent approach to deriv-
water reserves to meet the increasing water demands. ing aquifers’ storage changes. In this study, the GRACE
Fossil aquifers were lately adopted as the sole water monthly solutions during the period 2003–2021 were
source to provide the irrigation water requirements of utilized to estimate alterations in terrestrial water stor-
the ongoing reclamation activities in barren areas. Yet, age (TWS) throughout Egypt. Changes in groundwater
the scarcity of measurements regarding the changes storage (GWS) were inferred by subtracting soil water
in the aquifers’ storage poses a great challenge to such content, derived from the GLDAS-NOAH hydrologi-
sustainable resource management. In this context, the cal model, from the retrieved TWS. The secular trends
in TWS and GWS were obtained using the linear least
square method, while the non-parametric technique
Highlights (Mann–Kendall’s tau) was applied to check the trend
• Egypt’s aquifers have undergone a significant loss rate significance. The derived changes in GWS showed
during the last two decades.
• Groundwater depletion of 0.4 K ­ m3/year occurred in the
that all aquifers are undergoing a significant loss rate
Sinai Peninsula’s fossil aquifers. in their storage. The average depletion rate over the
• Development projects have multiplied pumping from the Sinai Peninsula was estimated at 0.64 ± 0.03 cm/year,
Moghra aquifer by about Eight times. while the depletion rate over the Nile delta aquifer was
• An appreciable room for rural development still exists
depending on the Nubian aquifer’s potential.
0.32 ± 0.03 cm/year. During the investigated period
• Groundwater pumping and saltwater incursion into the (2003–2021), the extracted groundwater quantity from
Nile delta aquifer were not significant until 2007. the Nubian aquifer in the Western Desert is estimated at
nearly 7.25 ­km3. The storage loss from the Moghra aqui-
A. Shalby (*) · S. R. Emara · M. I. Metwally ·
fer has significantly increased from 32 M­ m3/year (2003–
A. M. Armanuos · T. A. Gado 3
Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Tanta 31733, 2009) to 262 M ­ m /year (2015–2021). This reflects the
Egypt aquifer exposure for extensive water pumping to irrigate
e-mail: [email protected] newly cultivated lands. The derived findings on the aqui-
fers’ storage losses provide a vital source of information
D. E. El‑Agha
Faculty of Engineering, Suez University, Suez 43512, for the decision-makers to be employed for short- and
Egypt long-term groundwater management.

A. M. Negm
Keywords GRACE · Groundwater monitoring ·
Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University,
Zagazig 44519, Egypt Aquifer storage · GLDAS · Remote sensing

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 594 Page 2 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

Introduction 2002 and continued working until 2017. To fol-

low GRACE’s successful predecessor, a novel mis-
Globally, groundwater has become an essential fresh- sion, GRACE follow-on, has been launched in 2018
water source for agriculture and domestic supply in (Richey et al., 2015). The GRACE satellites detect
many countries. Consequently, groundwater stores each tiny acceleration in the Earth’s gravity field
are experiencing increasing demands getting a global which is mainly attributed to the redistribution of
withdrawal rate of 750–800 ­ km3/year (Frappart & TWS (Frappart & Ramillien, 2018). Groundwa-
Ramillien, 2018). In some regions, especially where ter component naturally accounts for the majority of
groundwater-based irrigation is intensive, ground- TWS. Accordingly, the GRACE-based anomaly of
water pumping rates exceed renewability rates, and TWS can be employed to estimate variations in GWS
hence both aquifer’s storage and water tables dropped by isolating other terrestrial water mass components
dramatically. Accordingly, groundwater depletion has (e.g., surface water, soil moisture, and snow). Indeed,
been reported in many regions worldwide and nega- groundwater engineering is of the last hydrological
tive consequences of over-pumping become inevi- sciences to benefit from remote sensing. The GRACE
table (Konikow & Kendy, 2005; Wada et al., 2012). dataset has become the only hope to measure the tem-
Richey et al. (2015) stated that 21 aquifers, out of poral variations of GWS in data-poor regions all over
the 37 world’s major aquifers, are being stressed. the world. During the last decades, GRACE has been
The most stressed aquifers that pose an urgent deple- proven reliable as an efficient method for monitoring
tion risk include the California central valley aquifer storage dynamics and availability (Rodell et al., 2007).
(USA), Murzuk-Djado Basin (Maghreb region), Ara- GRACE is promising as it is available for virtually all
bian aquifer Basin (Arabia Gulf region), Indus Basin aquifers with unprecedented accuracy and sufficient
(India), and North China aquifer (China). In cases resolutions. Thanks to the constantly improving and
of non-renewable aquifers, where recharge is limited advancement of GRACE data processing approaches,
or null, permanent groundwater mining constitutes GRACE spatial resolution has become a few hundred
depletion. While in replenished aquifers, depletion kilometers. Applying the recent GRACE release (RL
is indicated by substantial head declines (Bartolino 06), the changes of 1.5 cm in the TWS, measured as
& Cunningham, 2003). This would result in a major Equivalent Water Height (EWH), over a watershed
environmental crisis unless countermeasures are area of 200,000 k­ m2 could be detected (Sun et al.,
implemented in time. Accordingly, it is important 2010). The error of the GRACE land water solutions
to quantify rates of groundwater depletion to miti- is a few millimeters of EWH, ranging from 15 mm
gate the associated hazards. Yet, monitoring aquifers in the polar regions to around 40 mm at the Earth’s
storage remains a challenge in many regions owing Equator. (Swenson et al., 2006).
to a lack of shared data about monitoring networks The unique potential of the GRACE technique to
and the absence of water pumping reports. Globally, monitor changes in GWS has been confirmed in many
measurements regarding the variability of groundwa- studies (e.g., Moiwo et al., 2009; Strassberg et al., 2007;
ter storage (GWS) are extremely scarce (Konikow & Swenson et al., 2008; Yeh et al., 2006). In these stud-
Kendy, 2005). The in-situ measurements, if exist, are ies, a close matching in pattern was demonstrated
often characterized by data inconsistency, and spatial when comparing the GRACE-derived GWS variations
and temporal gaps, and often reflect only local esti- with those based on in situ water level observations.
mates of GWS. For instance, Yeh et al. (2006) concluded a reason-
Reliable and periodic observations of aquifer able coincidence between the seasonal amplitude
heads (piezometric data) are required to estimate the of GRACE-estimated GWS and those of the in-situ
changes in GWS over time. Fortunately, using the observations in Illinois, the USA. Strassberg et al.
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) (2007) demonstrated a robust correlation between sea-
satellite-acquired information provide inferring the sonal measured and GRACE-derived GWS variations
alterations in the soil water masses. GRACE mission in the high plains aquifer, USA. Swenson et al. (2008)
is the first remote sensing platform to enable consist- observed a consistent phase between the annual vari-
ent monitoring of terrestrial water storage (TWS) (Li ation of well-level data and GRACE estimation of
et al., 2012). GRACE satellites were launched in groundwater anomalies. Moiwo et al. (2009) found

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Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594 Page 3 of 17 594

a consistent agreement between the hydrological irrigation is unavoidable to provide sufficient food
measurements and GRACE-estimated data in the Hai production for the growing population. Yet, inten-
River basin, China. The comparison affirmed that sive pumping in these areas leads to severe ground-
GRACE has sufficiently characterized storage change water drawdown in renewable aquifers and increases
in such a semi-arid watershed indicating an annual the susceptibility of non-renewable aquifers to deple-
loss rate in the range of 12.72 to 23.76 mm. tion. Shifting the current pumping policy to achieve
Recently, the GRACE dataset, along with external sustainable water resources management requires the
information to disaggregate the four terrestrial water integration of multiple sourced-information about
components, has been widely utilized for monitoring aquifers storage. In Egypt, there are insufficient
GWS changes in major world aquifers (e.g., Ahmed ground-based networks to monitor GWS variations
et al., 2016; Fallatah et al., 2017; Othman et al., 2022). and even the pumping reports are considered sensi-
It has been used to define trends and infer rates of tive or confidential. This paper addresses a framework
groundwater depletion and aquifer stress indices, for tracking the depletion of Egyptian groundwater
with promising results. Jiao et al. (2015) analyzed reserves which are subject to unrestricted water with-
the release 05 of GRACE-based TWS anomalies drawal. Specifically, the study will estimate aquifer
from 2003 to 2012 in the Badain Jaran desert (China) storage loss rates in the last 2 decades by applying
which was represented as nine grids. Changes in GWS the GRACE‐based approach. Addressing the time
were isolated by subtracting TWS from soil moisture series of the aquifer storage is essential to mitigate the
anomalies simulated by GLDAS, while the contri- adverse consequences of over-pumping and to provide
bution of surface runoff and snow water was negli- reliable information to improve groundwater exploita-
gible. The results demonstrated a gradual decrease tion policies.
in GWS with an average depletion rate of 6.54 mm/
year, which led to a significant shrinkage of the spring Main groundwater reserves and abstraction fields
area. Changes in GWS throughout the San Joaquin in Egypt
River Basins, USA from 2003 through 2010 showed
a loss rate of 31.0 ± 2.7 mm/year (Famiglietti et al., In Egypt, there are six aquifers of high potentiality for
2011). Satellite-based and in situ observations of exploitation, as shown in Fig. 1. Although this study
surface water, snow, and soil moisture were com- covers the spatial extension of Egypt, it is more con-
bined to isolate the groundwater contribution to the cerned with the three major aquifers (i.e., the Nile
GRACE-TWS anomalies. Mohamed (2020) inte- Delta aquifer, the Moghra aquifer, and the Nubian
grated outputs of the community land surface model sandstone aquifer) where groundwater is exploited on
with GRACE estimations to measure the storage a large scale. The characteristics of deposits forma-
variations over the Nile Delta aquifer, a large water- tion of these aquifers are described in the following:
bearing storage in Egypt. The aquifer is subjected to
groundwater depletion varying from (−2.11 ± 0.85) 1. The Nile Delta aquifer, a huge renewable ground-
mm/year in (2003–2006) to (−5.8 ± 1.74) mm/year water reserve, covers the Nile Delta region and
in (2009–2012). The author tried to verify the results the adjacent desert fringes, with an area of about
against limited field data showing an acceptable skill 32,650 ­km2 (Armanuos & Negm, 2019), repre-
of the GRACE technique to capture the long-term senting about 4% of the country’s total area. The
changes in the aquifer’s storage. aquifer forms originally from confined Pleisto-
Egypt is increasingly dependent on groundwater to cene gravel and sand deposits overlayed by clay
compensate for the freshwater availability gap. Thus, sediments from the Holocene (Sefelnasr & Sherif,
groundwater is pumped, with no rationing restrictions, 2014). The depth of the aquifer increases from
to fulfill agricultural water demands in different areas. 200 m in the south to 1 km in the northern parts
Fossil desert aquifers are now being exploited to sup- (Armanuos & Negm, 2019). The depth to water
ply the bulk of the water required to irrigate newly level increases from 2 m in the northern portions
cultivated areas in the barren lands within the recently to about 4 m in the middle portions and reaches
advocated rural development project (SIS, 2016). The up to 5 m in the southern (Morsy, 2009; RIGW,
growing exploitation of groundwater resources for 2002). The aquifer capacity is estimated to be

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 594 Page 4 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

Fig. 1  Spatial distribution of the physiographical regions and the major aquifer systems in Egypt

about 500 × ­109 ­m3, and it is mainly exploited for 2. The Moghra aquifer in the north of the Western
agriculture and other domestic purposes (Ahmed Desert, a mixture of renewable and fossil water,
et al., 2022). The aquifer salinity dropped from covers the Moghra desert area at the western edge
5000 ppm in the northern margins to 1500 ppm of the Nile Delta with an area of 50,000 k­ m2 (El
in the southern portions (Abd-Elhamid et al., Tahlawi et al., 2008). The aquifer consists mainly
2019). The aquifer water budget balance decreased of Miocene fluviatile and fluvio-marine gravel
from + 3.98 ­km3/year in 1981 (Kashef, 1983), and coarse sand sediments with clay and siltstone
to + 2813.984 ­Mm3/year in 1990 (Dahab, 1993). In intercalations (Sayed et al., 2020). The aqui-
the last decades, abstraction rates have increased fer depth reaches up to 900 m in the center and
dramatically (Armanuos & Negm, 2019). Accord- decreases towards the north and west, where its
ingly, the aquifer budget balance turned into a base is in line with the ground level (Gomaa et al.,
negative balance (Negm et al., 2019), which is 2021). The aquifer is marginally replenished, with
affirmed by the observed drawdown in the water low water quantities, specifically from (i) the Nile
head throughout the aquifer. Delta aquifer through seepage, (ii) the overlying

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Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594 Page 5 of 17 594

aquifers (Miocene limestone aquifer and Nubian (Kharga, Dakhla, Bahareya, and Farafra) through
Sandstone Aquifer System) through upward leak- free-flowing springs and tube wells. These shal-
age, and (iii) a minor contribution from rainfall low wells have run dry since 1960 and have been
through infiltration. The main aquifer discharge replaced by deep wells that were installed for the
source is evaporation from local depressions (i.e., extensive irrigation project that was developed in
Qattara in the west and Wadi El-Natroun in the the vicinity of old oases as well as “East Oweinat,”
east) and by lateral seepage into carbonate for- and “Darb El-Arbain” areas. The cultivation area
mations (Abdel Mogith et al., 2013; Morad et al., steadily increased to reach 4200 ha in 2003 with
2014). The aquifer water salinity ranges, from an estimated total annual extraction of 2.8 ­Km3
slightly brackish (1000 ppm) within a narrow (CEDARE, 2014). By 2015, the extraction rate has
wedge in the vicinity of the Nile delta to saline increased by 500% (Ebraheem et al., 2002). Con-
(up to 12,000 ppm) over the rest of the aquifer’s sequently, groundwater levels have fallen over the
area (Eltarabily & Moghazy, 2021). The Moghra last 40 years by 60 m within the wells fields (El-
desert is one of the areas selected for the national Rawy & Smedt, 2020). According to the recently
land reclamation project that was inaugurated released national groundwater management poli-
in late 2015. Around 200 M ­ m3 of water will be cies, large cultivation schemes are being developed
annually abstracted to sustain ongoing cultivation in this region where the role of the Nubian aquifer
and fish breeding activities (Sayed et al., 2019). has been given more emphasis.
3. The Nubian sandstone aquifer cover most (83%) The Cretaceous Nubian Sandstone is the main aquifer
of the country’s whole area (Sharaky et al., within the desert of the Sinai Peninsula, Fig. 1.
2019). The aquifer occurs in central and northern Its depth varies from 100 m in the central por-
Egypt where it is confined by a thick Upper Cre- tion to 500 m in the south (Ahmed, 2020). Sur-
taceous shale deposit separating it from fissured face recharge, from rainfall, occurs over zones
carbonate aquifers (Fig. 1). It overlays the Pro- of sandstone outcrops at the mountain’s foothills
terozoic basement rocks, and its total thickness and fractured depositions (Balderer et al., 2014).
ranges from 0.5 to 4 km (Aly et al., 2019). The The Mediterranean Sea in the north and the Red
aquifer system is composed mainly of Paleozoic Sea’s gulfs in the south (i.e., the Suez gulf to the
and Mesozoic sandstone, intercalated by pre- west and the Aqaba Gulf to the east) represent
Upper Cretaceous clay and shale deposits (Aly natural effluents of the groundwater reserves of
et al., 2019). It consists of two major formations the Sinai Peninsula (Ahmed et al., 2022).
(i.e., the post-Nubian and the Nubian reservoirs)
separated by a low-permeability layer (i.e., aqui-
tard). Its groundwater quality is relatively good: Methodology
fresh (total dissolved solids (TDS) less than
1000 mg/L) in the Western Desert, slightly brack- The applied approach in this research is upon using
ish (1500 < TDS < 2000 mg/L) in the Sinai Pen- GRACE processed data to track trends in Egypt’s
insula and brackish (3000 < TDS < 4000 mg/L) groundwater storage. The temporal monthly TWS
in the Eastern Desert (Elmansy et al., 2020). It changes, mass deviation from the baseline, are
is a high-potential aquifer in Egypt, water stored expressed in terms of EWH and posted on a 1° grid
in the aquifer is about 40,000 ­km3 of paleowater resolution. The other approach of deriving regional
(CEDARE, 2014). mass concentration (Mascon) from orbit perturba-
In the southern portions of the Western Desert, sand- tion data is complicated to be realized, albeit its
stone outcrops expose, and the aquifer is uncon- higher precision (Mohamed et al., 2023). In the fol-
fined. This has fostered extensive development to lowing sections, more details about data processing
have occurred in the southwestern part of the coun- and extraction as well as procedures for deriving the
try, where this study scope is. Originally, the aqui- direction and degree of changes in groundwater stor-
fer in this region supplied the New Valley Oases age are discussed.

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 594 Page 6 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

Approach of using GRACE data in C20 (degree 2 order 0) estimated by GRACE, It

was replaced with the values obtained from satellite
Equation (1) is the starting point for recovering sur- laser ranging (Loomis et al., 2019).
face mass changes from the GRACE monthly solu-
tions (Cheng et al., 2011). Yet, the spherical harmonic Data retrieving
errors in the results become larger for higher degrees.
Gaussian spatial filter with a radius of 300 km is to TWS anomalies are processed and made available
be applied to diminish the spherical harmonic coef- by three official processing centers (GRACE science
ficients of high degrees (Jekeli, 1981) data centers): “the Center for Space Research (CSR)
in Austin, Texas, United States, the Jet Propulsion
∞ l
𝛼 𝜌ave 𝜋 ∑ ∑ m
̃ (Cos 𝜃) 2l + 1 Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, United
Δh(𝜃, 𝜑) = P
3 𝜌wat l = 0 m = 0 l 1 + ki (1) States, and the GeoForschungs Zentrum (GFZ) in
Potsdam, Germany” (Gemitzi & Lakshmi, 2018).
× ΔCl (m𝜙) + ΔSlm Sin(m𝜙)
( m )
There is a slight difference in the gravity field solu-
where Δh (θ, φ) is the EWH changes, α is the mean tion strategies and the processing technique applied
radius of the planet, ­Plm are normalized associated by each centre (Mohamed, 2020). Free access to
legendre functions, θ and φ are the co-latitude and lon- online data is provided by the Physical Oceanogra-
gitude, ­kl is the ­lth degree Love number, ΔClm and phy Distributive Active Archive Center (PODAAC),
ΔSlm are temporal changes in the spherical harmonic where the data are available in netCDF, ASCII,
coefficients in which m and l are the order and degree and GeoTIFF formats. In this study, GRACE
respectively, ρave is the mean density of the planet and data release-06 version 04 (RL06V04) spanning the
ρwat is the freshwater density. period from January 2003 to December 2021 was
Equation (2) shows the Gaussian smoothing func- retrieved. This data set constitutes a considerable
tion (Wl ) to smooth the gravity field. And the Gaussian improvement over other releases thanks to advance-
kernel function W(α) is stated in Eq. (3). ments in the applied processing techniques (Landerer
& Swenson, 2012), as described in “Approach of using
𝜋
GRACE data” section of this article. Eighty-nine
∫ (2) monthly GRACE solutions were extracted from the
Wl = W(𝛼) × Pl (𝛼) × Sin(𝛼) d 𝛼
0 three processing centers, and their scaled solutions
were averaged and posted in a geographic informa-
In (2) exp [−b(1 − Cos 𝛼)] tion system (GIS) platform. Grids of EWT variation
W(𝛼) = [ ]
1 − e−2b (3) were then generated and projected onto the WGS
2𝜋 1 − Cos(r∕𝛼)
1984, UTM Zone 36N coordinate system on the GIS
Additionally, postprocessing is then applied to environment. Afterwards, the area-averaged storage
obtain the GRACE solutions (Landerer & Cooley, anomaly was inferred from the generated raster maps
2021): (1) The influences of the tides (i.e., ocean, applying re-truncation to each aquifer extent. This
and solid earth pole) and nontidal (i.e., atmos- approach (area-weighted averaging) is necessary to
pheric) signals are removed by applying a back- support a sufficient and consistent spatial extent dis-
ground model (Landerer & Swenson, 2012); (2) play of the aquifers’ storage changes.
The effect of the correlated errors was minimized
using a decorrelated (de-striping) filter (Swenson & Estimating groundwater storage
Wahr, 2006); (3) Ellipsoidal correction suggested
by Ghobadi-Far et al., (2019) has been applied; A straightforward technique for estimating the vari-
(4) Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the GIA ations in GWS (Δ WGroundwater ) is to isolate the
model denoted as “ICE-6G_D” by (Richard Peltier included contributions from the other hydrologi-
et al., 2018); (5) Optimizing correction approach of cal components, i.e., surface water (Δ WSurface Water ),
annual variations and trends in the geocenter motion soil water (Δ WSoil Water ), and snow (Δ WSnow), from
(Sun et al., 2016); (6) Finally, due to the uncertainty GRACE-based anomalies of TWS (Δ TWS), Eq. (4).

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Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594 Page 7 of 17 594

In areas that are featured by arid climates and the variable with an average of x and y is the dependent
absence of snow, the contribution of snow is negli- random variable with an average of y.
gible. Hence, the terrestrial-based water balance for-
mula is equated with the changes in surface water,
n
∑
(yi − y)(xi − x)
soil moisture, and groundwater. Furthermore, due i=1
to the marginal annual alteration in canal water lev- Slope = n (6)
∑ 2
els throughout the case study, the effect of change in (xi − x)
i=1
the surface water is neglected. The fixed water levels
in the irrigation canal network throughout the Nile
The residual error at each point is calculated as
Valley and Delta are regulated by the High Aswan
ei = yi − y i representing the distance that the observed
⌢

dam and successive hydraulic structures including

value (yi ) deviated from the estimated value by the
regulators and barrages. Thus, changes in GWS are
regression model ( y i ). The standard residuals of the
⌢

inferred by removing the Δ WSoil Water content from

regression slope are estimated as in Eq. (7) represent-
the GRACE-derived TWS anomaly, Eq. (5). Since the
ing the average distance at all points along the fit line.
lack of available monitoring networks, the GLDAS-
NOAH land surface model is used instead to pro- Standard Error of Regressions Slope
vide information on water in the soil. The GLDAS �
hydrological model provides a large quantity of data � n � ⌢
�∑ �
y − y (7)
including total column soil moisture at several depths i i
� ��
�i = 1
2
up to 200 cm (Rodell et al., 2007). The soil mois- = (xi − x)
n−2
ture outputs from the “GLDAS_NOAH10_M_2.1”
model have a spatial resolution equal to a degree, and The generated trends were then statistically investi-
its temporal resolution is monthly. The soil moisture gated using the Mann–Kendall’s tau method (Kendall,
(SM) is extracted for four layers (0–10 cm, 10–50 cm, 1975; Mann, 1945) to identify which ones are statisti-
50–100 cm, and 100–200 cm) to represent the unsat- cally significant at 95% (α = 5%) and 90% (α = 10%)
urated water mass change. Storage of the SM in the confidence levels. The approach of Mann–Kendall’s
top two meters of the soil is stable, and the amplitude tau, a non-parametric technique, is widely used for
within the four layers is the same, but a fairly dampen- trend analysis because it does not assume any spe-
ing is recognized at the upper 50 cm where shallow- cific theoretical distribution of the random variables.
rooted crops are penetrating. To be consistent with the In this approach, the null hypothesis ­(H0) states that
anomaly-derived monthly series of the TWS, the SM there is no significant trend in the investigated time
data were converted into anomaly data. Accordingly, series, which is rejected when the p-value is less than
the relative time-average values from 2004 to 2009 α, indicating a statistically significant trend (positive
were subtracted from the original data outputted from or negative).
the GLDAS NOAH model.
ΔWGroundwater = ΔTWS − ΔWSurface Water
Results and discussion
(4)
− ΔWSoil Water − ΔWSnow
Temporal variations in TWS
ΔWGroundwater = ΔTWS − ΔWSoil Water (5)
The obtained time series of TWS variations were ana-
lyzed in 89 grids all over Egypt based on the solu-
Trend analysis tions from three sources (i.e., CSR, JPL, and GFZ) in
addition to their average. The annual averages of the
Secular trends of the time series were obtained by the extracted monthly time series from 2003 to 2021 were
linear least square fitting method (linear regression investigated and posted in a GIS environment. The
analysis). Equation (6) was used to calculate the slope ΔTWS values of the three solutions and their average
value of the best-fit line for a series of points [(x1, have turned into a negative sign in almost all grids
y1), (x2, y2), …., (xn, yn)], where x is the independent since the year of 2009. The negative sign denotes

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 594 Page 8 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

a loss in the TWS. Figure 2 depicts the spatial pat- respectively, for the three solutions (CSR, JPL, and
tern of the analyzed trend values of TWS, estimated GFZ) and their averaging. All the grids within the
by linear regression analysis over the entire inves- middle portion of the country experience a down-
tigated period, where almost all time series showed ward trend ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 cm/year. While the
a negative slope value. For the four data sets, a sig- grids along the western border showed a downward
nificant upward trend is observed in one grid (S89). trend of about 0.2 cm/year. Grids along the south bor-
Only four grids (S79, S80, S81, and S89), located der experience a slight downward slope affected by
at the north-western corner of Egypt, have shown the recharge from Lake Nasser (the High Dam’s res-
positive slopes ranging from 0.01 to 0.05 cm/year ervoir). These storage variations refer to changes in
according to the CSR and JPL solutions, as well as groundwater, and soil moisture; however, the ground-
the average of the three solutions. While the solu- water is believed to be the main component through-
tion from the GFZ showed a monotonic slope at S79 out the case study.
and S81, an upward significant trend of 0.04 cm/
year at S89, and a slight upward slope of 0.02 cm/ Temporal variations in SM
year at S80. In contrast, the maximum downward
was detected at the eastern portions within the Sinai The GLDAS hydrological model integrates a large
Peninsula, i.e., S88 showed significant negative trends quantity of observed data including total column soil
estimated as −0.71 ± 0.03 cm/year, −0.72 ± 0.03 cm/ moisture (SM). The SM through the top 200 cm of the
year, −0.77 ± 0.03 cm/year, and −0.73 ± 0.03 cm/year, soil depth was extracted to represent the unsaturated

Fig. 2  Spatial pattern of trends in terrestrial water storage from 2003 to 2021 throughout Egypt

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Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594 Page 9 of 17 594

TWS change in the study area. The SM storage is depending on natural flowing springs through the
fairly (stable), and the amplitudes of the four layers desert oasis (Elmansy et al., 2020). The upward trend in
are quite similar; however, a little dampening at the SM observed within the Sinai Peninsula may be attrib-
upper 50 cm, where shallow-rooted crops are pen- uted to the frequent flash flood events (Gado, 2020).
etrated, was recognized. The spatial trend pattern
of GLDAS-derived SM is shown in Fig. 3. Changes Temporal variations in GWS
in the SM are less than that observed in GRACE-
inferred TWS. Almost (75%) of the grids showed a Changes in GWS were inferred as the differences
significant downward trend with a gentle slope that between changes in GRACE-derived TWS and
does not exceed 0.1 cm/year. Accordingly, it is proved GLDAS-simulated SM, believing that the other two
that the TWS loss mainly occurs in the saturated zone water components (i.e., snow and surface water) are
due to groundwater pumping. A significant increase typically null, and their contributions to the long-
in the SM by about 0.1–0.3 cm/year was observed term trend of TWS in Egypt are negligible. The spa-
within the Nile delta and its fringes. This increase tial pattern of GWS trends for Egypt from 2003 to
in soil water content within the unsaturated zone is 2021 is depicted in Fig. 4. Similar to the results of
attributed to flood irrigation agriculture. Similarly, the TWS time-series trend analysis, the GWS exhib-
the increase in SM at some grids in the Western Desert ited a decreasing trend across almost all grids but
is attributed to the ongoing cultivation activities with different trend values. Moreover, the map of the

Fig. 3  The trend of change in the soil moisture content for the highest two meters over Egypt

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 594 Page 10 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

spatial trend of the ΔGWS time series resembles that throughout the Sinai Peninsula showing a significant
of the ΔTWS time series. Grids in the northwestern decrease in the storage by 388 M ­ m3/year, Fig. 5. This
corner of Egypt, which represent the spatial extent storage loss is mainly attributable to groundwater
of the Salloum plateau, showed positive trends. The pumping. Indeed, the groundwater in the Sinai Penin-
reasons for the upward trends that prevailed over sula exists as a thin water lens (i.e., perched aquifers)
the Salloum plateau are: (1) there is no groundwater and, therefore, is highly susceptible to abstraction-
withdrawal within the Salloum plateau because the triggered stresses (Gad et al., 2015). The pumped
local population (the Bedouin community) depends water is utilized to meet various needs as there is no
mainly on rainfall which records an annual average of other source of freshwater. This result is supported by
63 mm (Gado, 2020), (2) rainfall infiltration into the the findings of many studies attributing water salini-
soil, and (3) the seawater invasion from the Mediter- zation and wells drying up to the over-pumping to
ranean Sea. In the contrast, the most obvious decline depleted levels (Bekhit, 2015; Eissa et al., 2013; El-
of groundwater storage is noticed in plots that occu- Bihery, 2009; Gad & Khalaf, 2015).
pied the northeastern part (Sinai desert) of the coun- Following the processed annual changes of the
try. The main reason for this region’s considerable Nile Delta aquifer storage, a significant decreasing
reduction in GWS is evapotranspiration and increas- trend of (0.32 ± 0.03) cm/year is detected along the
ing groundwater extraction either in the Sinai or the investigated period (2003–2021), Fig. 6. The aver-
adjacent Negeb desert (Negev) in Palestine. age storage loss is estimated as 104.5 M ­ m3/year.
The area-weighted averaging technique was used These derived results are consistent with the litera-
to process the annual time series of GWS changes ture (e.g., Mabrouk et al., 2018; Sefelnasr & Sherif,

Fig. 4  Spatial pattern of trends in groundwater storage from 2003 to 2021 throughout Egypt

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Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594 Page 11 of 17 594

Fig. 5  Annual changes in groundwater storage throughout the Sinai Peninsula, as estimated from the GRACE data

2014; Sobeih et al., 2017) to confirm the Nile Delta storage loss was not significant until 2007, thereafter
Aquifer has experienced a significant storage loss in the the ΔGWS has considerably changed. Subsequently,
last two decades. Yet, this depletion rate is lower than the abstraction rate has increased dramatically,
­ m3/
the average extraction rate, reported as about 3.16 B exceeding the recharge rate, which caused a signifi-
year (Armanuos & Negm, 2019). That is attributed cant decrease in the aquifer storage. The time series
to higher recharge rates from the Nile River, irriga- of the Nile Delta aquifer’s storage showed a change
tion canals, and precipitation. Intruded seawater into point in the year 2014. The slope changed from −0.39
the aquifer also contributes to compensating for a (2003–2014) to −0.29 (2014–2021). This is explained
part of the groundwater withdrawal (Mabrouk et al., by the recharging increase to the aquifer due to expan-
2013). Recharges from the two Nile branches and sion in agricultural activities and accelerated seawater
seepage from irrigation networks are estimated at 2.6 intrusion owing to sea level rise.
­km3/year (RIGW, 2003), in addition to an average of Figure 7 illustrates the time series of annual changes
0.42 ­km3 seawater annually intrudes into the aquifer in GWS of the Moghra aquifer that was derived as
(Armanuos et al., 2017). The average annual natu- GRACE-TWS series minus GLDAS-SM series. The
ral discharge toward the Moghra aquifer is 85 ­Mm3/ figure showed a persistent decrease in the aquifer
year (Sayed et al., 2020). Figure 6 indicates that the storage since 2015 when the aquifer is equipped for

Fig. 6  Annual changes in groundwater storage over the Nile Delta aquifer, as estimated from the GRACE data

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 594 Page 12 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

irrigation of newly cultivated lands. For the period from water quantity (Aly et al., 2019). However, the
2003 to 2008, a slight decreasing trend of (0.04 ± 0.03) recharge is controlled by the difference between
cm/year has been detected. During this period, the the lake water level and the aquifer water table.
aquifer was roughly considered an untapped aquifer The findings confirm that there is substantial room
(Morad et al., 2014). The decrease in aquifer storage for rural development depending on the huge stor-
during the first investigated period is mainly attrib- age of the Nubian aquifer.
uted to evapotranspiration (Sayed et al., 2020). Dur-
ing the second period (2008–2015), the aquifer stor-
age decreased at a rate of (0.17 ± 0.03) cm/year. The Findings verification against in situ observations
increase in storage loss is due to water withdrawal
through some private shallow wells that partially pen- A spatial match between the grids that have indicated
etrate the aquifer (Abdel Mogith et al., 2013). The loss a storage decreasing trend according to GRACE-based
in the aquifer storage during the first two periods is 32 GWS and plots of high groundwater pumping rate.
and 135 ­Mm3/year, Fig. 7. The loss doubled within That confirms the GRACE’s ability to monitor ground-
the third period (2015–2021), reaching 262 M ­ m3/ water depletion in Egypt. The results showed that
year. This huge amount of pumped water is exploited the Nile Delta aquifer is subjected to significant stor-
to irrigate a wide reclaimed area in the Western Desert age loss since 2007. These findings can be evidenced
within the national reclamation project. by hydrogeological observations showing a notice-
The extensive rural development depending on able drawdown in water levels throughout the aqui-
the Nubian aquifer’s potentiality in the Western fer. However, the GRACE-derived storage losses of
Desert significantly dropped its storage by about (104.5 ± 9.8) ­Mm3/year is not coincide with the appar-
2.5 cm in the last two decades, Fig. 8. Considering ent high extraction rates from the aquifer. The dif-
the large areal extensions of the Nubian aquifer, ference is resulting from replenishment sources and
the extracted groundwater quantity is about 7.25 intruded seawater that partially compensates for the
­km3. It may be argued these estimates underesti- groundwater extraction. Armanuos and Negm, (2019)
mate the observed huge drawdown in the ground- stated that the net budget of the system equals − 0.221
water table. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning ­Km3/year. This value is consistent with the storage loss
the fact that the cone of depression in piezometric estimated as GRACE-TWS minus GLDAS-SM. How-
heads is limited within the wells fields (Elmansy ever, considering the slight changes in surface water
et al., 2020). Moreover, the aquifer has initiated (i.e., irrigation canals) throughout the Nile Delta may
the recovery of its reserve from Lake Nasser. improve the accuracy of storage decline estimation.
As the aquifer system is hydraulically connected The results showed a moderate reduction of the
with Lake Nasser which recharges it by a huge GWS occurred in the fossil aquifers in the Western

Fig. 7  Annual changes in groundwater storage in the Moghra aquifer, as estimated from the GRACE data

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Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594 Page 13 of 17 594

Fig. 8  Changes in groundwater storage in the Nubian aquifer, as estimated from GRACE data

Desert where groundwater is overused. The GRACE- reserves to compensate for the deficit in freshwater
derived estimation was able to represent the actual resources and to supply the bulk of water demands for
three stages of groundwater exploitation in the Moghra rural development projects. This work combined data
aquifer (Gomaa et al., 2021). The aquifer was roughly from GLDAS and GRACE to track alteration in the
untapped until 2008. After that, the aquifer experi- terrestrial water components throughout Egypt, where
enced a rationed pumping rate causing a storage loss scarce observations limit hydro-climatological stud-
of about 1.5 K­ m3 during the period from 2009 to 2015. ies. Recently released GRACE time-variable gravity
The development projects inaugurated in 2016 have accurate solutions were utilized to analyze TWS vari-
multiplied pumping from the Moghra aquifer by nearly ability in Egypt. The TWS experienced a significant
eight times; consequently, the aquifer has lost about 2.3 loss rate throughout almost Egypt, with slight dif-
­Km3 of its reserves from 2017 to 2021. Such intensive ferences between the three GRACE-data processing
withdrawal threatens the sustainability of the ongoing sources. Change in the SM was less than that in the
agribusiness activities depending on the aquifer as the saturated zone, affirming that depletion occurs mainly
sole water supply. Furthermore, a significant ground- in the saturated storage due to groundwater pumping.
water depletion of 0.4 ­Km3/year was detected through- Changes in GWS were then calculated as the differ-
out the Sinai Peninsula. The resulting drawdown has ence between GRACE-derived TWS and GLDAS-
triggered the upwelling of deep saline groundwater in simulated SM. GRACE signals indicate a significant
wells near the coast (Bekhit, 2015; Eissa et al., 2013; reduction of the GWS almost over all of Egypt. The
Omran, 2019). This study urges the close monitoring decreasing trend of GWS is even more remarkable in
of any future groundwater pumping in Sinai to avoid some locations, which is attributed to groundwater
(or limit) such effects. In the contrast, the huge storage over-pumping and evapotranspiration from shallow
of the Nubian aquifer encourages future expansion in aquifers. On the contrary, the upward trend along the
cultivation projects. The regional representation of the Mediterranean Sea is attributed to saltwater invasion
Nubian aquifer system indicated the head drawdown into the north coastal aquifer.
is concentrated around the wells field and the storage The research’s findings highlight the main role of
experienced a slight loss and may be recoverable. observing aquifers’ storage in management plans and
decision-making processes to achieve resource sustain-
able management. In this context, the utilization of infor-
Conclusions mation acquire by GRACE satellites as an additional
regularization mechanism to constrain a regional ground-
Egypt is located in one of the most water-stressed areas water model over a large-scale aquifer would improve the
globally. It has relied increasingly on groundwater simulation results (Hu & Jiao, 2015; Sun et al., 2012).

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 594 Page 14 of 17 Environ Monit Assess (2023) 195:594

However, applying a de-striping or/and smoothing fil- use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any
ter may be a prerequisite for a successful combining of medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the
original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Crea-
GRACE water storage anomalies data into such models tive Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The
(Ahmed et al., 2014). The filtering approaches contribute images or other third party material in this article are included
to removing the correlated errors (stripes) and reducing in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated
the risk of poor consistency and comparability of data otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your
from different sources. Moreover, using GRACE mas- intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds
con solutions of a high spatial resolution may be robust. the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
GRACE data validation against in situ well observations, from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
if available, is urged to assess uncertainty and to apply a http://​creat​iveco​mmons.​org/​licen​ses/​by/4.​0/.
reliable bias correction technique to improve the skill of
the GRACE-based approach. References

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Abd-Elhamid, H., Abdelaty, I., & Sherif, M. (2019). Evalua-
STDF-Egypt for the financial support received under the tion of potential impact of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
framework of a project (ID#46278). The authors are beholden Dam on Seawater Intrusion in the Nile Delta Aquifer.
to the GRACE project for providing processed simulations (the International Journal of Environmental Science and
level 2 solutions) and making the measurements available by Technology, 16(5), 2321–2332. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​
JPL’s Physical Oceanography Distributive Active Data Center s13762-​018-​1851-3
(PODAAC). The authors would like to extend their gratitude Abdel Mogith, S., Ibrahim, S., & Hafiez, R. (2013). Groundwa-
and recognition to the reviewers for their precious time and ter potentials and characteristics of El-Moghra Aquifer in the
dedication to revising the manuscript. vicinity of Qattara Depression. Egyptian Journal of Desert
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Ahmed, M. (2020). Time-lapse gravity monitoring of ground-
Author contribution This paper originated as a part of the PhD water of the Sinai Peninsula. International Journal of
thesis of the first author (Ahmed Shalby) under the supervision of Earth Science and Geophysics, 6(2). https://​doi.​org/​10.​
Asaad M. Armanuos and Tamer A. Gado. All authors provided 35840/​2631-​5033/​1840
critical feedback and helped shape the research, analysis, and man- Ahmed, M., Chen, Y., & Khalil, M. M. (2022). Isotopic com-
uscript. Mohammed I. Metwally and Doaa E. El-Agha extracted position of groundwater resources in arid environments.
the gridded data. Ahmed Shalby and Sobhy R. Emara analyzed Journal of Hydrology, 609(March), 127773. https://​doi.​
the data. Ahmed Shalby took the lead in writing the original draft. org/​10.​1016/j.​jhydr​ol.​2022.​127773
Asaad M. Armanuos, Abdelazim M. Negm, and Tamer A. Gado Ahmed, M., Sultan, M., Wahr, J., & Yan, E. (2014). The use
reviewed and edited. Ahmed Shalby carried out the submission. of GRACE data to monitor natural and anthropogenic
induced variations in water availability across Africa.
Funding Open access funding provided by The Science, Earth-Science Reviews, 136, 289–300. https://​doi.​org/​10.​
Technology & Innovation Funding Authority (STDF) in coop- 1016/j.​earsc​irev.​2014.​05.​009
eration with The Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB). This paper Ahmed, M., Sultan, M., Yan, E., & Wahr, J. (2016). Assess-
is part of a project titled “Optimal Exploitation Strategies for ing and improving land surface model outputs over Africa
Sustainable Utilization of Fossil Groundwater Reserves in using GRACE, field, and remote sensing data. Surveys
Egypt” funded by the Science and Technology Development in Geophysics, 37(3), 529–556. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​
Fund (STDF), Egypt. s10712-​016-​9360-8
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Data availability The data that support the findings of this of the impact of Lake Nasser on the groundwater system
study are available from the corresponding author, upon rea- in Toshka under future development scenarios, Western
sonable request. Desert, Egypt. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 12(17),
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A., Yoshimura, C., Takemura, J., & Zidan, B. A. (2017).
Evaluation of the potential impact of Grand Ethiopian
Ethical approval All authors have read, understood, and have Renaissance Dam and pumping scenarios on groundwater
complied as applicable with the statement on "Ethical respon- level in the Nile Delta aquifer. Water Science and Technol-
sibilities of Authors" as found in the Instructions for Authors. ogy: Water Supply, 17(5), 1356–1367. https://​doi.​org/​10.​
2166/​ws.​2017.​037
Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Armanuos, A. M., & Negm, A. (2019). Integrated groundwater
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mons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits 489–544. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​698_​2017_​184

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