2022-05-11 - Nature - Transitioning Organizations To Post-Quantum Cryptography
2022-05-11 - Nature - Transitioning Organizations To Post-Quantum Cryptography
Transitioning organizations to
post-quantum cryptography
In the past few decades, the field of cryptography has developed from shortcomings of rushing through poorly planned countermeasures
an obscure set of rudimentary scrambling techniques into a mature, down the road. We intend this document to be relevant to a wide audi-
formal science. Along with better cryptographic techniques, a set of ence, and particularly to those in industry and government.
cryptanalysis techniques has arisen. One of these cryptanalysis tech-
niques is related to quantum computers and threatens the foundations
of the security guarantees that cryptography strives to offer1 (see a Post-quantum cryptography
review2 for a comprehensive overview of the post-quantum cryptog- In general terms, cryptography is the study of mathematical techniques
raphy (PQC) field). to enforce policies on information. These policies broadly specify who
The adoption of such post-quantum cryptographic techniques is allowed to send, read and edit digital information. Some common
constitutes a challenge in itself. In this Perspective, we present an uses include security against eavesdroppers, enforcing read and write
application-focused perspective of the transition process to protect access to data, and message authentication. All these techniques have
organizations (including businesses, government departments and something in common: they depend on the intractability of certain
non-profit organizations) from quantum threats. Our perspective mathematical problems. To ensure that a cryptosystem is secure, there
is derived from extensive discussions across security teams within is a need to show that breaking such a cryptosystem is at least as hard as
Alphabet, and substantially agrees with established best practices in solving some mathematical problem considered intractable to anyone
the information security and cryptography communities. The scale of who does not possess knowledge of some piece of secret information,
the challenges faced by our colleagues and the pressing timeline within henceforth known as a key. Implementation errors aside, the hardness
which they must be confronted lead us to believe that now is an oppor- of this problem is the core security guarantee of the cryptosystem,
tune moment to open the discussion to a wider array of stakeholders and if the hardness is refuted by a cryptanalysis technique, then the
in business, government and other organizations. cryptosystem is considered broken.
We present a set of actionable recommendations to organizations:
from outlining the reasons why they should craft a robust strategy to The quantum threat to traditional cryptography
start the migration to post-quantum cryptosystems now and increase The key mathematical techniques underpinning today’s cryptosystems
awareness and understanding of PQC, to an analysis of the compu- are closely related, and are based on the integer factorization problem
tational resources these new cryptosystems will require. We believe and the discrete logarithm problem. The cryptosystem’s security relies
that taking critical steps now will be beneficial to reduce the future on the hardness of solving these problems. In 1994, the mathematician
SandboxAQ, Palo Alto, CA, USA. 2Google, Mountain View, CA, USA. ✉e-mail: [email protected]
1
Time
Store now decrypt later—non-PQC-protected data are at risk RSA and ECC broken
Fig. 1 | Post-quantum cryptography timeline. The three timelines can be thought of as: the threat to cryptography (top), the steps organizations should pass
through during the migration (middle) and the process of standardization (bottom), which is led by multinational standards bodies.
Peter Shor devised a quantum algorithm that promised an exponential threat. It corresponds to adversaries capturing valuable encrypted
speed-up for factoring integers and finding discrete logarithms1 over information now, storing it and decrypting it later once LFT quantum
non-quantum algorithms, which in theory allows a quantum computer computers are available. The SNDL attack assumes that this information
to crack the majority of the currently used public key cryptosystems. remains valuable in the future. The second quantum threat refers to the
That is, many of our present cryptosystems will be broken when suf- capability of breaking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), the
ficiently large and fault-tolerant (LFT) quantum computers are built. two most widespread public key algorithms for encrypting informa-
Quantum computers exist today, but they are highly rudimentary tion today that can be broken with Shor’s algorithm. This would allow
and imperfect machines and a great deal of technology evolution is adversaries to forge RSA and ECC digital signatures and pose risks to
needed to achieve wide application. The roadblocks for quantum systems that rely on them, such as secure web browsing8, zero trust
computing lie mostly in creating high-precision hardware. Even with architectures9 and cryptocurrencies10.
qubits that can execute basic operations with 0.1% error rates, over an The middle grey timeline in Fig. 1 depicts the two actions required
entire system these errors propagate and grow exponentially, limit- by organizations in transitioning to PQC. The first regards the strate-
ing the size of a useful quantum computer. Each extra qubit doubles gic planning and technological experimentation for this transition,
the power of a quantum computer, and so when Google AI Quantum whereas the second regards the effective adoption of PQC in produc-
announced quantum supremacy in late 20193 their experiment was tion systems. We emphasize that the strategic planning phase must be
performed on a processor of only 53 qubits. The number of noisy completed well before LFT quantum computers are able to effectively
qubits required to break RSA-2048—where RSA (Rivest–Shamir– attack RSA and ECC (that is, a process whose start should not be further
Adleman) is the cryptosystem and 2048 is the most commonly used delayed).
parameter set—is estimated to be around 20 million4. We argue below Finally, the bottom blue timeline in Fig. 1 concerns the standardi-
why action is urgent despite the engineering challenges this develop- zation processes organized by relevant government and industrial
ment implies. bodies, with particular focus on the National Institute of Standards
Consequently, new cryptographic primitives are required to main- and Technology (NIST) PQC process to determine the fundamental
tain the security of communication and information storage in the security of proposed PQC candidates.
face of quantum threats. These cryptographic algorithms are known
as post-quantum cryptography, and are based on mathematical prob- Recommendations to organizations regarding strategy and
lems that are believed to be quantum resistant. Although there exist timelines
quantum-based cryptographic techniques that are secure against quan- Given its low cost, ease of integration into current infrastructure plus
tum computers (see refs. 5–7 for relevant discussions), a substantial the whole set of cryptographic features, there has been a natural con-
advantage of PQC over any quantum alternatives is that PQC schemes vergence of standardization bodies and organizations towards PQC. As
can be plugged into any conventional communication infrastructure such, we recommend that organizations interested in protecting their
or contemporary devices. systems and users against quantum attacks should adopt PQC (over
quantum cryptography) as their main quantum protection strategy.
PQC transition timeline For those organizations that have not started integrating PQC in
This Perspective makes a set of recommendations to organizations their systems or even planning for it, we highly recommend starting
about the process and timeline by which the PQC transition should their efforts now. Those organizations and enterprises with sensitive
take place, summarizes the landscape of the field, maps out the stand- data with time value exceeding five years should consider PQC imme-
ardization timelines and compiles a list of resources for stakeholders. diately. The SNDL attack is already practicable, so in this context, such
Figure 1 depicts a timeline of important PQC-related events that lie organizations are already late and at increasing risk.
ahead. This timeline is composed of three parallel sequences of events We recommend that, despite the natural pressure from industry, the
and is not to scale. standardization bodies should have a clear focus on creating standards
The top red timeline in Fig. 1 captures the two most important quan- with a security-first mindset. A standard that is published quickly but
tum threats and when they become of critical importance. The first, that lacks clarity brings about many more problems than a standard
known as a store-now-decrypt-later (SNDL) attack, is already an active that is published later.
Dec 2016: Nov 2017: April 2018: August 2019: June 2021: 2023–2024:
Formal call for Deadline for First NIST PQC Second NIST PQC Third NIST PQC Draft standards
submissions submissions standardization standardization standardization available for
workshop workshop workshop schemes selected
after third round
Fig. 2 | NIST post-quantum cryptography process timeline. The notable events during the course of the NIST PQC standardization process are shown, from its
inception in 2016 to the present day. This process is the longest and most comprehensive study into PQC conducted thus far.
standard (AES) algorithm24 and, more recently, the SHA-3 algorithm17 perform better in all metrics at the cost of at least one additional secu-
are examples of these initiatives. In 2016, with the quantum threat loom- rity assumption. In summary, these two classes (structured versus
ing, NIST launched a process to standardize public key PQC algorithms. unstructured code and lattice schemes) represent a trade-off between
Figure 2 depicts the timeline of events for this process. security and efficiency. NIST’s decision to keep representatives from
Since the beginning of the process, NIST acknowledged that this both categories for its third round seems prudent, as it gives time to
particular process would be substantially more complex than the pro- the community to determine where the line should be drawn between
cesses for AES and SHA-325. One reason for this is that the requirements efficiency and security.
for public key cryptography and digital signatures are more complex
than symmetric cryptography. Another is the sheer breadth of pro- Other PQC-related standardization efforts
posed solutions that research has provided. Comparing such varied The IETF, which was responsible for crafting the transport layer security
approaches brings unique challenges, such as weighing up security, (TLS) protocol27,28 that is used extensively for secure web browsing29,30,
key sizes, latency, bandwidth and ease of secure implementation. has several ongoing efforts to integrate post-quantum primitives in
The process considers two cryptographic functionalities: stateless different protocols, for instance in TLS31 and the internet key exchange
digital signature, and asymmetric encryption and key encapsulation (IKE) standard32. The intention is to combine RSA- and ECC-based and
mechanisms. The evaluation criteria for this process focus on security PQC schemes, providing a stepping stone towards PQC without risking
first and foremost, then on the practical considerations of efficiency naked vulnerabilities that are inherent with relatively new cryptog-
and performance, and as a last priority consider other factors such raphy. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) have started
as intellectual property claims and ease of secure implementation21. initial discussions on the topic but will probably wait for the standards
Parameter sets for five security levels ranging from the equivalent to to be published by NIST before proposing new wireless encryption
conducting exhaustive key search on AES 128 (that is, level I) to AES protocols. At ISO, SD8 of JTC 1/SC 27 offers information on a range of
256 (that is, level V) are analysed, which allows cryptosystems from PQC algorithms.
different families to be roughly compared with one another. ETSI is another organization that is taking an active role in the stand-
To narrow down the field of 82 submissions initially received, NIST ardization of quantum-resistant communication technologies, with
considered the security evaluations that were provided along with the working groups on quantum key distribution (QKD) and PQC, the latter
submissions, external security analyses, as well as internal cryptanaly- having published a standard for quantum-safe key exchange33. In 2015,
sis performed by NIST’s own researchers. After just over a year, NIST ETSI released a white paper34 analysing some of the most promising
announced 26 algorithms that would proceed to the second round of post-quantum cryptography algorithms and discussing the main chal-
the process. In July 2020, NIST announced the 15 candidates that would lenges for this transition.
proceed to the third round21. Of these 15 candidates, 7 were classified as In a separate non-standardization project, NIST and the National
‘finalists’ (4 asymmetric encryption or key encapsulation mechanisms Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence are working to stimulate develop-
(KEMs) and 3 stateless signature schemes) and 8 were classified as ment of tools, playbooks and proofs of concept to ease migration35.
‘alternatives’ (5 asymmetric encryption or KEMs and 3 stateless signa- In China, the Chinese Association for Cryptographic Research com-
ture schemes). At the end of the third round, it is expected that NIST pleted a short competition held over a period of months in 2019 to
will standardize a few finalist schemes, and will continue to consider quickly settle on a small number of algorithms for standardization. The
alternative candidates for future standardization in an eventual fourth first prize was awarded to the lightweight authenticated encryption
round. The intention to keep alternative candidates in the process cipher (LAC) scheme36,37 in the key exchange category, a cryptosystem
could be explained by several reasons, including achieving diversity that made it to the second round of the NIST process38 but not the third,
of primitives, suitability to special use cases, and more. NIST aims to owing to a number of successive attacks.
release results of the third round by mid 2022, with the final standards
taking up to another two years. Recommendations to organizations regarding PQC
During its standardization process, NIST has disclosed benchmark standardization
results to illustrate potential performance gaps between the candi- Stateful HBS is a technology already standardized by multiple stand-
dates. The charts in Fig. 3 show these differences. Here we make a few ardization bodies (for example, NIST). Despite the need to implement
observations. Isogenies are extremely space efficient with small pub- a robust state-management mechanism, this technology has an out-
lic keys and ciphertexts, but suffer poor speed performance. For lat- standing benefit: its security guarantees, which are based on minimal
tices, the unstructured variants are considered the most conservative assumptions. Therefore, organizations that need to transition to PQC
approach, and enjoy more confidence from the crypto community in applications amenable to state management (such as any software
regarding security than their structured counterparts. Similarly the code signing application) should consider HBS as a potential solution.
McEliece cryptosystem26 is considered more conservative than other The NIST PQC project is close to the end of the third round, and
more recent code-based systems. By contrast, the structured variants standards for the algorithms selected are expected to be released no
3.5 programme interfaces, and the standards that define them. Adapting
infrastructure to accommodate such considerations will be a con-
siderable part of the work of migrating to PQC39. In addition, despite
3.0 the best efforts of the new algorithm authors and evaluators, there is
potential for some degree of ongoing change, in algorithms, modes
of operations or specific parameters that may in turn affect the wider
2.5
system configuration.
In preparing to implement these changes, organizations should plan
for crypto-agility, specifically to adopt abstraction layers on centrally
2.0
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 managed toolkits and services that minimize the effort on any subse-
log10[Cycles (Enc)] quent changes. Similarly, the implementation of such tooling should
also include capabilities for the application or infrastructure users of
Isogenes such tooling to cope with adjusted data formats and sizes. Explicitly,
6.0
Unstructured lattices
in initiating a crypto-agility programme, organizations should: imple-
log10[Ciphertext + public key (bytes)]
Structured lattices
5.5 Codes ment a centrally provided set of cryptographic libraries and services
McEliece that abstract algorithms in use from application and infrastructure
4.0 teams; and identify data field and size dependencies, and adjust sur-
rounding databases, datastores, protocols and other software that
4.5
assumes current fixed field sizes.
Concerning standards bodies and regulators, additionally:
4.0
crypto-agility should be embedded in any standards that are currently
3.5 being developed, for example, 6G must be inherently crypto-agile
and PQC compatible; and industry-specific regulators across criti-
3.0 cal infrastructure sectors should urgently start planning for sectoral
coordination to reduce systemic risk.
2.5
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0
Prioritization strategy
log10[Cycles (Keygen + Enc + Dec)]
The first thing organizations need to carefully pay attention to in order
Fig. 3 | NIST post-quantum cryptography algorithm performance. The top to ensure a successful transition is prioritization. This refers to the
plot shows the sizes of ciphertext and public keys for key exchange algorithms, task of identifying where the PQC transition is needed first. This is
where similar algorithms are grouped by colour. The bottom plot shows the important because the workforce able to perform this task is highly
ciphertext and public key sizes versus the computation required. A key specialized and usually scarce. Consequently, deploying a transition
generator (Keygen) is used to generate a public and private key, encapsulation strategy that does not take into account the main security bottlenecks
(Enc) encrypts a secret using the public key, and decapsulation (Dec) decrypts will probably consume all the resources available without necessarily
the secret using the private key, and the secret is then securely shared. protecting systems and users.
Regarding this prioritization of efforts, first we need to identify
the cryptographic schemes that are at highest risk. In the context of
later than 2024. We recommend that organizations monitoring this immediate need for confidentiality, key exchange algorithms are at
process should start experimenting now with the finalist and alterna- highest risk. This is because the outcome of a key exchange procedure
tive candidates. This will be important to minimize the transition time can be captured to be broken later (SNDL attack). Digital signatures,
once the NIST PQC standards are published. however, require an online adversary (that is, the adversary needs to
be able to forge signatures at the time of signing). Meanwhile some
systems are hard to update but do not absolutely require immediate
General recommendations quantum-resistant confidentiality, such as vehicular communications.
At first glance, transitioning cryptographic algorithms may look like a In these cases, secure digital signatures should be a first step, which can
simple task and similar to any other algorithmic replacement: the old then be used to push updates to key exchange algorithms at a later date.
generation of (quantum vulnerable) algorithms are replaced by the
new generation of (quantum resistant) algorithms. Unfortunately, Hybrid algorithms
this task is anything but simple given the fact that adversaries can (and Rather than replacing existing algorithms with comparatively
will) exploit any insecure node at any given time to trigger devastating less-studied post-quantum alternatives, the scientific community came
attacks. To complement the topic-specific recommendations given up with a simple and effective approach. This approach consists of
throughout this Perspective, we now provide a set of generic recom- combining both a traditional algorithm and a post-quantum algorithm
mendations that should further help organizations to transition to PQC into a single mechanism. If done correctly, the overall system’s security
in a manner that minimizes security risks, ensures a shorter transition is lower bounded by the stronger of the two cryptosystems composing
time and optimizes costs. the hybrid system. In other words, even if the PQC algorithm is subse-
quently identified as flawed, the security offered by the classical scheme
Crypto-agility is still guaranteed. In this way, security is only potentially increased in
To develop a holistic approach towards infrastructural security in this transition, never decreased.
the face of the post-quantum migration, organizations must take To combine the key exchange algorithms, one uses each algorithm
steps towards crypto-agility. This is because changing cryptographic (one PQC and one classical) to generate a single shared secret. Then,