Full download test bank at ebook textbookfull.

com

Demystifying Climate Models A Users

Guide to Earth System Models 1st

CLICK LINK TO DOWLOAD

https://textbookfull.com/product/demystifying
-climate-models-a-users-guide-to-earth-
system-models-1st-edition-andrew-gettelman/

textbookfull
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

Marketing and management models a guide to

understanding and using business models First Edition
Yvonne Helen Strong

https://textbookfull.com/product/marketing-and-management-models-
a-guide-to-understanding-and-using-business-models-first-edition-
yvonne-helen-strong/

Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Technology: A Guide

to Core Models and Tools, 2nd Edition Lorenzo

https://textbookfull.com/product/entrepreneurship-innovation-and-
technology-a-guide-to-core-models-and-tools-2nd-edition-lorenzo/

Models for Tropical Climate Dynamics Waves Clouds and

Precipitation Boualem Khouider

https://textbookfull.com/product/models-for-tropical-climate-
dynamics-waves-clouds-and-precipitation-boualem-khouider/

Interior Design Visual Presentation a Guide to Graphics

Models and Presentation Techniques 4th Edition Mitton

https://textbookfull.com/product/interior-design-visual-
presentation-a-guide-to-graphics-models-and-presentation-
techniques-4th-edition-mitton/
Beginner s Guide to Create Models With 3ds Max Ravi
Conor

https://textbookfull.com/product/beginner-s-guide-to-create-
models-with-3ds-max-ravi-conor/

Current Trends in the Representation of Physical

Processes in Weather and Climate Models David A.
Randall

https://textbookfull.com/product/current-trends-in-the-
representation-of-physical-processes-in-weather-and-climate-
models-david-a-randall/

Introduction to Statistical Methods for Financial

Models 1st Edition Thomas A Severini

https://textbookfull.com/product/introduction-to-statistical-
methods-for-financial-models-1st-edition-thomas-a-severini/

Developing Modular Oriented Simulation Models Using

System Dynamics Libraries 1st Edition Christian K. Karl

https://textbookfull.com/product/developing-modular-oriented-
simulation-models-using-system-dynamics-libraries-1st-edition-
christian-k-karl/

From Models to Simulations Franck Varenne

https://textbookfull.com/product/from-models-to-simulations-
franck-varenne/
Earth Systems Data and Models

Andrew Gettelman
Richard B. Rood

Demystifying
Climate
Models
A Users Guide to Earth System Models
Earth Systems Data and Models

Volume 2

Series editors
Bernd Blasius, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
William Lahoz, NILU—Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
Dimitri P. Solomatine, UNESCO—IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft,
The Netherlands
Aims and Scope

The book series Earth Systems Data and Models publishes state-of-the-art research
and technologies aimed at understanding processes and interactions in the earth
system. A special emphasis is given to theory, methods, and tools used in earth,
planetary and environmental sciences for: modeling, observation and analysis; data
generation, assimilation and visualization; forecasting and simulation; and
optimization. Topics in the series include but are not limited to: numerical, data-
driven and agent-based modeling of the earth system; uncertainty analysis of models;
geodynamic simulations, climate change, weather forecasting, hydroinformatics,
and complex ecological models; model evaluation for decision-making processes
and other earth science applications; and remote sensing and GIS technology.
The series publishes monographs, edited volumes and selected conference
proceedings addressing an interdisciplinary audience, which not only includes
geologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, chemists, biologists and ecologists but
also physicists, engineers and applied mathematicians, as well as policy makers
who use model outputs as the basis of decision-making processes.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10525

Andrew Gettelman Richard B. Rood
•

Demystifying Climate
Models
A Users Guide to Earth System Models
Andrew Gettelman Richard B. Rood
National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering
Boulder University of Michigan
USA Ann Arbor
USA

ISSN 2364-5830 ISSN 2364-5849 (electronic)

Earth Systems Data and Models
ISBN 978-3-662-48957-4 ISBN 978-3-662-48959-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8

Library of Congress Control Number: 2015958748

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016. This book is published open access.
Open Access This book is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-
Noncommercial 2.5 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/) which permits any
noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and
source are credited.
The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the work’s Creative Commons
license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if such material is not included in the work’s
Creative Commons license and the respective action is not permitted by statutory regulation, users will
need to obtain permission from the license holder to duplicate, adapt or reproduce the material.
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publi-
cation does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the
relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by SpringerNature

The registered company is Springer-Verlag GmbH Berlin Heidelberg
Acknowledgments

Amy Marks provided very careful and thorough edit, as well as numerous helpful
suggestions. Cheryl Craig, Teresa Foster, Andrew Dolan, and Galia Guentchev
contributed their time to reading through drafts and providing a needed reality
check. Prof. Reto Knutti helped this book take shape while Andrew Gettelman was
on sabbatical at ETH in Zurich. David Lawrence shared critical insights and
PowerPoint figures on terrestrial systems. Thanks also to Markus Jochum for
straightening us out on explaining how the ocean works. Jan Sedlacek,
ETH-Zürich, helped with figures in Chap. 11 (especially Fig. 11.6).
Mike Moran and David Edwards of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research provided financial support. Lawrence Buja and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research hosted Richard Rood’s visitor status. The National Center
for Atmospheric Research is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation.
We thank the staff and students of the University of Michigan’s Climate Center
for reviews of the manuscript: Samantha Basile, William Baule, Matt Bishop, Laura
Briley, Daniel Brown, Kimberly Channell, Omar Gates, and Elizabeth Gibbons.
Richard Rood thanks the students in his classes on climate change problem-solving
at the University of Michigan and acknowledges in particular the project work of:
James Arnott, Christopher Curtis, Kevin Kacan, Kazuki Ito, Benjamin Lowden,
Sabrina Shuman, Kelsey Stadnikia, Anthony Torres, Zifan Yang.
Richard Rood acknowledges the support of the University of Michigan and the
Graham Sustainability Institute, and grants from the National Oceanographic and
Atmospheric Administration (Great Lakes Sciences and Assessments Center
(GLISA)—NOAA Climate Program Office NA10OAR4310213) and the
Department of the Interior, National Park Service (Cooperative Agreement
P14AC00898).
Francesca Gettelman exhibited nearly unlimited patience with some late nights.

v
Contents

Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts

1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 What Is Climate? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 What Is a Model? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3.1 Model Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.3.4 Total Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2 Components of the Climate System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1 Components of the Earth System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1.1 The Atmosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.2 Timescales and Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.3 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3 Climate Change and Global Warming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.1 Coupling of the Pieces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2 Forcing the Climate System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.3 Climate History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4 Essence of a Climate Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.2.1 Finite Pieces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.2.2 Processes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

vii
viii Contents

4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.3 Coupled Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.5.1 The Computer Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.5.2 Running a Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Part II Model Mechanics

5 Simulating the Atmosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
5.3 General Circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.4.1 Clouds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5.4.2 Radiative Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
5.4.3 Chemistry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
5.6.2 Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
5.6.3 Feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5.6.4 Cloud Feedback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
5.8 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
6.1 Understanding the Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
6.2 “Limited” Ocean Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
6.3.1 Topography and Grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
6.3.2 Deep Ocean. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
6.3.4 Surface Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
6.6 Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Contents ix

6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

6.8 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
7.1.2 Vegetation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
7.1.3 Ice and Snow. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
7.1.4 Human Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model . . . . . . . . . . . 113
7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat . . . . . . . . . . . 115
7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation
and Land Cover/Use Change) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles . . . . . . . . 121
7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.5 Land Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
7.6 Humans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
7.7 Integrated Assessment Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.8.3 Carbon Feedback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale
National Park. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
7.10 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity . . . . . . . 139
8.1 Types of Coupled Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
8.1.1 Regional Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
8.3.2 Water Feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
8.3.5 Sea-Level Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
8.4.2 Monsoons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
x Contents

8.4.3 El Niño. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
8.5 Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources. . . . . . 155
8.7 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

Part III Using Models

9 Model Evaluation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
9.1.2 Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
9.1.3 Model Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
9.2 Climate Model Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
9.2.1 Types of Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
9.2.2 Model Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further
Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections. . . . . . . . . . 173
9.3.1 Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
9.3.2 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation:
Ozone Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
9.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
10 Predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
10.1.1 Physics of the System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
10.1.2 Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition
Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30–50 Years: Scenario
Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty
Versus Scenario Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
10.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
Contents xi

11 Results of Current Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
11.2.1 Goals of Prediction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
11.2.2 Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
11.2.3 Why Models? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
11.3.1 Confident Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious. . . . . . . . 210
11.3.3 Bad Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events?. . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events . . . . . . . . . . . 217
11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado . . . . . . . . . . . 217
11.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners . . . . . . . . . 221
12.1 Knowledge Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
12.2 Interpretation and Translation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections . . . . . 225
12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
12.2.3 Climate Assessments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
12.2.4 Expert Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
12.3 Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
12.3.1 Ensembles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
12.4 Framing Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
12.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
13 Summary and Final Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
13.1 What Is Climate? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
13.3 Components of the Climate System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
13.3.1 The Atmosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
13.3.2 The Ocean. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
13.3.4 Coupled Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
13.4.1 Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
13.4.2 Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
xii Contents

13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

13.6.1 Increasing Resolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
13.6.2 New and Improved Processes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
13.6.3 Challenges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
13.7 Final Thoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

Climate Modeling Text Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
About the Authors

Andrew Gettelman is a Scientist in the Climate and Global Dynamics and

Atmospheric Chemistry and Modeling Laboratories at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR). He is actively involved in developing atmosphere
and chemistry components for global climate models at NCAR. Dr. Gettelman
specializes in understanding and simulating cloud processes and their impact on
climate, especially ice clouds. He has numerous publications on cloud physics
representations in global models, as well as research on climate forcing and feed-
backs. He has participated in several international assessments of climate models,
particularly for assessing atmospheric chemistry. Gettelman holds a doctorate in
Atmospheric Science from the University of Washington, Seattle. He is a recent
recipient of the American Geophysical Union Ascent Award, and is a
Thompson-Reuters Highly Cited Researcher.
Richard B. Rood is a Professor in the Department of Climate and Space Sciences
and Engineering (CLaSP) at the University of Michigan. He is also appointed in the
School of Natural Resources and Environment. Prior to joining the University of
Michigan, he worked in modeling and high performance computing at the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). His recent research is focused on
the usability of climate knowledge and data in management planning and practice.
He has started classes in climate-change problem solving, climate change uncer-
tainty in decision making, climate-change informatics (with Paul Edwards). In
addition to publications on numerical models, his recent publications include
software engineering, informatics, political science, social science, forestry and
public health. Rood’s professional degree is in Meteorology from Florida State
University. He recently served on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on
A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. He writes expert blogs on
climate change science and problem solving for the Weather Underground Richard
Rood is a Fellow of American Meteorological Society and a winner of the World
Meteorological Organization’s Norbert Gerbier Award.

xiii
Introduction

Human-caused climate change is perhaps the defining environmental issue of the

early twenty-first century. We observe the earth’s climate in the present, but
observations of future climate are not available yet. So in order to predict the future,
we rely on simulation models to predict future climate.
This book is designed to be a guide to climate simulation and prediction for the
non-specialist and an entry point for understanding uncertainties in climate models.
The goal is not to be simply a popular guide to climate modeling and prediction, but
to help those using climate models to understand the results. This book provides
background on the earth’s climate system and how it might change, a detailed
qualitative analysis of how climate models are constructed, and a discussion of
model results and the uncertainty inherent in those results. Throughout the text,
terms in bold will be referenced in the glossary. References are provided as foot-
notes in each chapter.
Who uses climate models? Climate model users are practitioners in many fields
who desire to incorporate information about climate and climate change into
planning and management decisions. Users may be scientists and engineers in fields
such as ecosystems or water resources. These scientists are familiar with models
and the roles of models in natural science. In other cases, the practitioners are
engineers, urban planners, epidemiologists, or architects. Though not necessarily
familiar with models of natural science, experts in these fields use quantitative
information for decision-making. These experts are potential users of climate
models. We hope in the end that by understanding climate models and their
uncertainties, the reader will understand how climate models are constructed to
represent the earth’s climate system. The book is intended to help the reader
become a more competent interpreter or translator of climate model output.
Climate is best thought of as the distribution of weather states, or the probability
of finding a particular weather state (usually described by temperature and pre-
cipitation) at any place and time. Climate science seeks to be able to describe this
distribution. In contrast, the goal of predicting the weather is to figure out exactly
which weather state will occur for a specific place and time (e.g., what the high
temperature and total precipitation will be on Tuesday for a given city). Even in

xv
xvi Introduction

modern societies, we are still more dependent on the weather than we like to admit.
Think of a winter storm snarling traffic and closing schools. Windstorms and
hailstorms can cause significant damage. Or think of the impact of severe tropical
cyclones (also called hurricanes or typhoons, depending on their location), per-
sonified and immortalized with names like Sandy, Andrew, or Katrina. Persistence
(or absence) of weather events is also important. Too little rain (leading to drought
and its resulting effects on agriculture and even contributing to wildfires) and too
much rain (leading to flooding) are both damaging.
Although we are tempted to speak of a single “climate,” there are many climates.
Every place has its own. We build our societies to be comfortable during the
expected weather events (the climate) in each place. Naturally, different climates
mean different expected weather events, and our societies adapt. Buildings in
Minneapolis are built to standards different from buildings in Miami or San
Francisco. City planning is also different in different climates. Minneapolis has
connected buildings so that people do not need to walk outside in winter, for
example. Singapore has connected buildings so that people do not need to walk
outside in heat and humidity. Not just the built environment, but the fabric of
society may be different with local climates. In warmer climates, social life takes
place outdoors, for example, or the flow of a day includes a rest period (siesta in
Spanish) during the hottest period of the day.
We construct our lives for possible and sometimes rare weather events: putting
on snow tires for winter even though snow may not be around for over half a
winter. We build into our lives the ability to deal with variations in the weather.
A closet contains coats, gloves, hats, rain jackets, umbrellas, sun hats, and sun-
glasses: We are ready for a range and for a distribution of possible weather states.
Some events are rare: Snow occasionally has fallen in Los Angeles, for example.
But it is usually the rare or extreme weather events that are damaging. These
outliers of the distribution are typically damaging because they are unexpected and
therefore we do not adequately prepare for them. Or rather, the expectation
(probability) is so rare that it is not cost-effective for society to prepare for them.
This applies to the individual as well: if you live in Miami your closet contains
more warm weather gear, and less cold weather gear. It is unlikely you would be
able to dress for temperatures well below freezing. The impacts of extreme weather
are dependent on the climate of a place as well. For example, a few inches (cen-
timeters) of snow is typical for Denver, Minneapolis, or Oslo, but it will shut down
Rome or Atlanta. One inch (25 millimeters) of annual rainfall is typical for Cairo,
but a disaster in most other places.
Where the most damaging weather events occur are at the extremes of the cli-
mate distribution. One problem is that we often do not know the distribution very
well. Every time we hit a record (e.g., a high temperature, rainfall in 24 hours, days
without rain), we expand the range of observed events a little, and we learn more
about what might happen in a particular place. Because extreme events are rare, we
do not really know the true chance of their occurrence. Think about your knowledge
of the climate where you live or in a place you have visited several times. At first,
you might not have a good grasp of what the seasons are like. After a few years,
Introduction xvii

you think you know how the seasons evolve. But there are always events that will
surprise you. The record events are those that surprise everyone. What is the
probability of a hurricane flooding Houston as New Orleans was flooded by
Katrina? It has not happened since the city of Houston has been there, so we may
not know. The extremes of the distribution of possible weather states are not well
known.
This creates even more of a problem when these extremes change. Changing the
distribution of weather is what we mean by climate change. The cause of those
changes might be natural or they might be human caused (anthropogenic).
So how do we predict the future of weather and the distribution of weather that
represents climate in a location? To understand and predict the future, we need a
way to represent the system. In other words, we need a model. This book is about
how we attempt to use models to represent the complex climate system and predict
the future. Our goal is to explain and provide a better understanding of the models
we use to describe the past, present, and future of the earth system. These are
commonly known as climate models. Scientists often refer to these models formally
as earth system models, but we use the term climate model.
The purpose of this book is to demystify the models we use to simulate present
and future climate. We explain how the models are constructed, why they are
uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in those models.
Uncertainty is not a weakness. Understanding uncertainty is a strength, and a key
part of using any model, including climate models. One key message is that the
level of confidence depends on the questions we ask. What are we certain about in
the future and why? What are we less certain of and why? For policy-makers, this is
a critical issue. Understanding how climate models work and how we get there is an
important step in making intelligent decisions using (or not using) these climate
models. Climate models are being used not just to understand the earth system but
also to provide input for policy decisions to address human-caused climate change.
The direction of our environment and economy is dependent on policy options
chosen based on results of these models.
The chapters in Part I serve as a basic primer on climate and climate change. We
hope to give readers an appreciation for the complexity and even beauty of the
complex earth system so that they can better understand how we simulate it. In
Part II, we discuss the mechanics of models of the earth system: How they are built
and what they are trying to represent. Models are built to simulate each region
of the climate system (e.g., atmosphere, ocean, and land), critical processes within
each region, as well as critical interactions between regions and processes. Finally,
in Part III, we focus on uncertainties and probabilities in prediction, with a focus on
understanding what is known, what is unknown, and the degree of certainty. We
also discuss how climate models are evaluated. In the concluding chapter, we
discuss what we know, what we may learn in the future, and why we should (or
should not) use models.
 Part I
Basic Principles and the Problem
of Climate Forecasts
Chapter 1
Key Concepts in Climate Modeling

In order to describe climate modeling and the climate system, it is necessary to have
a common conception of exactly what we are trying to simulate, and what a model
actually is. What is climate? What is a model? How do we measure the uncertainty
in a model? This chapter introduces some key terms and concepts. We start with
some basic definitions of climate and weather. Everyone will come to this book
with a preconceived definition of what climate and weather are, but separating these
concepts is important for understanding how modeling of climate and weather are
similar and why they are different. It also makes sense to discuss what a model is.
Even if we do not realize it, we use models all the time. So we describe a few
different conceptual types of models and put climate models in context. Finally we
introduce the concept of uncertainty. As we discuss later in the book, models may
have errors and still be useful, but this requires understanding the errors (the
uncertainties) and understanding where they come from. Most of these concepts are
common to many types of modeling, and we provide examples throughout the text.

1.1 What Is Climate?

Climate is perhaps easiest to explain as the distribution of possible weather states.

On any given day and in any given place, the history of weather events can be
compiled into a distribution with probabilities of what the weather might be (see
Fig. 1.1). This figure is called a probability distribution function, representing a
probability distribution.1 The horizontal axis represents a value (e.g., tempera-
ture), and the vertical axis represents the probability (or frequency of occurrence) of
that event’s (i.e., a given temperature) occurring or having occurred. If based on
observations, then the frequency can be the number of times a given temperature
occurs. The higher the line, the more probable the event. The most frequent

1
There is quite a bit of statistics in climate, by definition. For a technical background, a good
reference is Devore, J. L. (2011). Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, 8th
ed. Duxbury, MA: Duxbury Press. Any specific aspect of statistics (e.g., standard deviation,
probability distribution function) can be looked up on Wikipedia (www.wikipedia.com).

© The Author(s) 2016 3

A. Gettelman and R.B. Rood, Demystifying Climate Models,
Earth Systems Data and Models 2, DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8_1
4 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling

Frequency of Occurrence

Cold Mean T1 Hot

Value (e.g., temperature)

Fig. 1.1 A probability distribution function with the value on the horizontal axis, and the
frequency of occurrence on the vertical axis

occurrence is the highest probability (the mode). The total area under the line is the
probability. If the total area is given a value of 1, then the area under each part of
the curve is the fractional chance that an event exceeding some threshold will occur.
In Fig. 1.1, the area to the right of point T1 is the probability that the temperature
will be greater than T1, which might be about 20 % of the curve. The mean, or
expected value, is the weighted average of the points. It need not be the point with
the highest frequency. The mean value is the point at which half the probability
(50 %) is on one side of the mean, and half on the other. The median is the value at
which half the points are on one side and half on the other.
Here is an important and obvious question: How can we predict the climate (for
next season, next year, or 50 years from now) if we cannot predict the weather (in 5
or 10 days)? The answer is, we use probability: The climate is the distribution of
probable weather. The weather is a particular location in that distribution, and it is
conditional on the current state of the system. The chance of a hurricane hitting
Miami next week depends mostly on whether one has formed or is forming, and if
one has formed, whether it is heading in the direction of Miami. As another
example, the chance of having a rainy day in Seattle in January is high. But, given a
particular day in January, with a weather state that might be pushing storms well to
the north or south, the probability of rain the next day might be very low. In 50
Januaries, though, the probability of rain would be high. So climate is the distri-
bution of weather (sometimes unknown). Weather is a given state in that distri-
bution (often uncertain).
In a probability distribution of climate, the probabilities and the curve change
over time: In the middle latitudes, the chance of snow is higher in winter than in
summer. The curves will look different from place to place: Some climates have
narrow distributions (see Fig. 1.2a), which means the weather is often very close to
the average. Think about Hawaii, where the average of the daily highs and lows do
not change much over the course of the year or Alaska, where the daily highs and
lows may be the same as in Hawaii in summer, but not in winter. For Alaska the
annual distribution of temperature is a very broad distribution (more like Fig. 1.2b).
1.1 What Is Climate? 5

Fig. 1.2 Different probability (a) Narrow

distribution functions:
a narrow, b wide and
c skewed distributions

(b) Wide

(c) Uneven (Skewed)

Of course, even in Hawaii, extreme events occur. For a distribution like precipi-
tation, which is bounded at one end by zero (no precipitation) the distribution might
be “skewed” (Fig. 1.2c) with a low frequency of high events marking the
‘extreme’. As events are more extreme (think about hurricanes like Katrina or
Sandy), there are fewer such events in the historical record. There may even be
possible extreme events that have not occurred. So our description of climate is
incomplete or uncertain. This is particularly true for rare (low-probability) events.
These events are also the events that cause the most damage.
One aspect of shifting distributions is that extremes can change a lot more than
the mean value (see Fig. 1.3). The mean is the value at which the area is equal on
each side of the distribution. The mean is the same as the median if the distribution
is symmetric. Simply moving the distribution to the right or left causes the area
(meaning, the probability) beyond some fixed threshold to increase (or decrease). If
the curve represents temperature, then shifting it to warmer temperatures (Fig. 1.3a)
decreases the chance of cold events and really increases the chance of warm events.
But note that some cold events still occur. Also, you can change the distribution
without changing the mean by making the distribution wider (or broader). The
mathematical term for the width of a distribution is variance, a statistical term for
variability. This situation is illustrated in Fig. 1.3b. The mean is unchanged in
6 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling

(a) Increase in mean

Lots more ‘hot’ (some off scale: records)

Less cold

(b) Increase in variance

More hot and cold: both off scale

Same mean

(c) Increase in mean and variance

Lots more hot, off scale

Less cold

Fig. 1.3 Shifting probability distribution functions are illustrated in different ways going from the
blue to red distribution. The thick lines are the distribution, the thin dashed lines are the mean of
the distributions and the dotted lines are fixed points to illustrate probability. Shown is a increase
in mean, b increase in variance (width), c increase in mean and variance

Fig. 1.3b, but the chance of exceeding a given threshold for warm or cold tem-
peratures changes. In other words, the climate (particularly a climate extreme)
changes dramatically, even if the mean stays the same. The change need not be
symmetric: Hot may change more than cold (or vice versa). Figure 1.3c is not a
symmetric distribution. The key is to see climate as the distribution, not as a fixed
number (often the mean).
This brings us to the fundamental difference between weather and climate
forecasting. In weather forecasting,2 we need to know the current state of the
system and have a model for projecting it forward. Often the model can be simple.
One “model” we all use is called persistence: What is the weather now? It may be
like that tomorrow. In many places (e.g., Hawaii), such a model is not bad, but
sometimes it is horribly wrong (e.g., when a hurricane hits Hawaii). So we try to
use more sophisticated models, now typically numerical ones. These models go by
the name numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and they are used to
“forecast” the evolution of the earth system from its current state.

2
For an overview of the history of weather forecasting, see Edwards, P. N. (2013). A Vast
Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA:
MIT Press.
1.1 What Is Climate? 7

Climate forecasting uses essentially the same type of model. But the goal of
climate forecasting is to characterize the distribution. This may mean running the
model for a long time to describe the distribution of all possible weather states
correctly. If you start up a weather model from two different states (two different
days), you hope to get a different answer each time. But for climate, you want to get
the same distribution (the same climate), regardless of when the model started. We
return to these examples again later.

1.2 What Is a Model?

A model, in essence, is a representation of a system. A model can be physical

(building blocks) or abstract (an image on paper like a plan, or in your head).
Abstract models can also be mathematical (monetary or physical totals in a
spreadsheet). Ordinary physics that describes how cars go (or, more importantly,
how they stop suddenly) is a model for how the physical world behaves. Numbers
themselves are abstract models. A financial statement is a model of the money and
resource flows of a household, corporation or country. Models are all around us,
and we use them to abstract, make tractable and understand our human and natural
environment.
As a concrete example, think about different “models” of a building. There can
be many types of models of a building. A physical model of the building would
usually be at a smaller scale that you can hold in your hand. There are several
different abstract models of a building, and they are used for different purposes.
Architects and engineers produce building plans: two-dimensional representations
of the building, used to construct and document the building. Some of these are
highly detailed drawings of specific parts of the building, such as the exterior, or the
electrical and plumbing systems. The engineer may have built not just a physical
model of the building, but perhaps even a more detailed structural model designed
to understand how the building will react to wind or ground motion (earthquakes).
Increasingly, these models are “virtual”: The structure is simulated on a computer.
We are familiar with all these sorts of model, but there are other more abstract
models that deal with flows and budgets of materials or money. The owner and
builder also probably have a spreadsheet model of the costs of construction of the
building. This financial model is not certain, because it is really an estimate (or
forecast, see below) of all the different costs of construction. And, finally, the owner
likely has another model of the financial operation of the building: the money
borrowed to finance the building, any income from a commercial building, and the
costs of maintenance and operations of the building. The operating plan is really a
projection into the future: It depends on a lot of uncertainties, like the cost of
electricity or the value of the income from a building. The projection depends on
these inputs, which the spreadsheet does not try to predict. The prediction is con-
ditional on the inputs.
8 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling

Models All Around Us

Models are everywhere in our world. Many models are familiar and physical,
such as a small-scale model of a building or a bridge, or a mockup of a
satellite or an airplane. Some models we use every day are made up of
numbers. Many people use a model with numbers to manage income and
expenses, savings and debts; that is, a budget. When the model of a bridge is
placed in a computer-assisted design program, or a financial budget is put into
a spreadsheet on a personal computer, then one has a “numerical” model.
These models have a set of mathematical equations that behave with a
specific set of rules, principles or laws.
Climate models are numerical models that calculate budgets of mass,
momentum (velocity) and energy based on the physical laws of conservation.
For example, energy is conserved (neither created or destroyed) and can,
therefore, be counted. The physical laws on which climate models are based
are discussed in more detail in Chap. 4. Weather and climate are dynamical
systems; that is, they evolve over time. We rely on models of dynamical
systems for many aspects of modern life. Here we illustrate a few examples of
models that affect our everyday lives.
Climate models are closely related to weather forecast models; both
simulate how fluids (air or water) move and interact, and how they exchange
heat. An obvious example of a model that affects daily life is the weather
forecast model, which is used in planning by individuals, governments,
corporations and finance. The exact same physical principles of fluid flow are
used to simulate a process in a chemical plant that takes different substances
as liquids or gasses, reacts them together under controlled temperature and
pressure, and produces new substances. Water and sewage treatment plants
share similar principles and models. Internal combustion engines used for
cars, trucks, ships and power plants are developed using models to understand
how fuel enters the engine and produces heat, and that heat produces motion.
Airplanes are also developed using modeling of the airflow around an aircraft.
In this case, computational modeling has largely replaced design using wind
tunnels. All of these models involve fluid flow and share physical princi-
ples with climate models. The details of the problem, for example, flow in
pipes as contrasted to flow in the free atmosphere, define the specific
requirements for the model construction.
So do you trust a model? Intuitively, we trust models all the time. You are
using the results of a model every time you start your car, flush your toilet,
turn on a light switch or get in an airplane. You count on models when you
drive over a bridge. When NASA sends a satellite or rover to another planet,
the path and behavior of the space vehicle relies on a model of simple physics
describing complex systems.
Models do not just describe physical objects. Models of infectious diseases
played an important role in management of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola. One
function of models is to provide plausible representations of events to come,
1.2 What Is a Model? 9

and then to place people into those plausible futures. It is a way to anticipate
and manage complexity. Though most times these models do not give an
exact story of the future, the planning and decision making that comes from
these modeling exercises improves our ability to anticipate the unexpected
and to manage risk. Think of modeling as a virtual, computational world in
which to exercise the practice of trial and error, and therefore, a method for
reducing the “error” in trial and error. Reducing these errors saves lives and
property. Models reduce the chance of errors: Airplanes do not regularly fall
out of the sky, bridges do not normally collapse and chemical plants do not
typically leak.
Ultimately, trust of models is anchored in evaluation of models compared
to observations and experiences. Weather models are evaluated every day
with billions of observations as well as billions of individuals’ experiences.
Trust is often highly personal. By many objective measures, weather models
have remarkable accuracy, for example, letting a city know more than five
days in advance that a major tropical cyclone is likely to make landfall near
that city. Of course, if the tropical cyclone makes landfall just 60 miles
(100 km) away from the city, many people might conclude the models cannot
be trusted.
Objectively, however, a model that simulated the tropical cyclone and
represented its evolution with an error of 60 miles (100 km) on a globe that
spans many thousands of miles can, also, be construed as being quite accu-
rate. This represents the fact that models provide plausible futures that inform
decision making.
Like weather models, climate models are evaluated with billions of
observations and investigations of past events. The results of models have
been scrutinized by thousands of scientists and practitioners. With virtual
certainty, we know the Earth will warm, sea level will rise, ice will melt and
weather will change. They provide plausible futures, not prescribed futures.
There are uncertainties, and there will always be uncertainties. However, our
growing experiences and vigilant efforts to evaluate and improve will help us
to understand, manage and, sometimes, reduce uncertainty. As the models
improve, trust and usability increase. There remains some uncertainty in most
physical models, but that can be accounted for, and we discuss uncertainty,
and its value in modeling, at length.
Our world is completely dependent on physical models, and their success is
seen around us in the fact that much of the world “works” nearly all of the time.
Models are certain enough to use in dangerous contexts that are both mundane
and ubiquitous. We answer the question of whether we should trust models and
make changes in our lives based on their results every time we get in an
elevator or an airplane. There is no issue of should we trust models; we have
been doing it for centuries since the first bridge was constructed, the first train
left a station or the first time a building was built more than one story high.
10 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling

1.3 Uncertainty

Forecasting involves projecting what we know, using a model, onto what we do

not know. The result is a prediction or forecast. Forecasts may be wrong, of course,
and the chance of them being wrong is known as uncertainty. Uncertainty can
come from several different sources, but this is particularly the case when we think
about climate and weather. One way to better characterize uncertainty is to divide it
into categories based on model, scenario and initial conditions.3

1.3.1 Model Uncertainty

Obviously, a model can be wrong or have structural errors (model uncertainty).

For example, if one were modeling how many tires a delivery company would need
for their trucks in a year and assumed that the tires last 10,000 miles, when they
actually only last 7,000 miles, the forecast of tire use is probably wrong. If you
assumed each truck would drive 20,000 miles per year and tires last 10,000 miles,
the trucks would need two sets of tires. However, what if the trucks drove only
14,000 miles per year and each set of tires lasted only 7,000 miles, (still needing
just two sets of tires)? Then the forecast might be right, but the tire forecast would
be right for the wrong reason: in this case, a cancellation of errors.

1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty

The preceding example also illustrates another potential uncertainty faced in climate
modeling: scenario uncertainty. The scenario4 is the uncertainty in the future
model inputs. In the tire forecast, the scenario assumed 20,000 miles per truck each
year. But the scenario was wrong. If the tire forecast model was correct (or “per-
fect”) and tires lasted 10,000 miles, but the mileage was incorrect (14,000 vs.
20,000 assumed), then the forecast will still be incorrect, even if the model is
perfect. If the actual mileage continued to deviate from the assumption (14,000
miles), then the forecast over time will continue to be incorrect. If one is concerned
with the total purchase of tires and total cost, then the situation becomes even more
uncertain. Other factors (e.g., growth of the company, change in type of tires) may
make forecasting the scenario, or inputs to the model, even more uncertain, even if
the model as it stands is perfect. As the timescale of the model looks farther into the

3
This definition of uncertainty has been developed by Hawkins, E., & Sutton, R. (2009). “The
Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Prediction.” Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 90(8): 1095–1107.
4
For a discussion of climate scenarios, see Chap. 10.
1.3 Uncertainty 11

future, more and more different “variables” become uncertain (e.g., new types of
tire, new trucks, the cost of tires). These variables that cannot be predicted, but have
to be assumed, are often called parameters. Scenario uncertainty logically domi-
nates uncertainty farther into the future (see Chap. 10 for more detail).

1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty

Finally, there is uncertainty in the initial state of the system used in the model, or
initial condition uncertainty. In our tire forecast, to be specific about how many
tires we will need in the current or next year, we also need to know what the current
state of tires is on all the trucks. Changes in the current state of tires will have big
effects on the near-term forecast: If all trucks have 6,000 or 8,000 miles on their
tires, there will be more purchases of tires in a given year than if they are all brand
new. Initial condition uncertainty is a similar problem in weather forecasting. As we
will discuss, some aspects of the climate system, particularly related to the oceans,
for example, have very long timescales and “memory,” so that knowing the state of
the oceans affects climate over several decades. However, over long timescales
(longer than the timescale of a process), these uncertainties fade. If you want to
know how many tires will be needed over 5 or 10 years, the uncertainty about the
current state of tires (which affects only the first set of replacements) on the total
number of tires needed is small.

1.3.4 Total Uncertainty

In climate prediction, we must address all three types of uncertainties—model

uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and initial condition uncertainty—to estimate the
total uncertainty in a forecast. They operate on different time periods: Initial con-
dition uncertainty matters most for the short term (i.e., weather scales, or even
seasonal to annual, in some cases), and scenario uncertainty matters most in the
longer term (decades to centuries). Model uncertainty operates at all timescales and
can be “masked” or hidden by other uncertainties.
The complicated nature of these uncertainties makes prediction both harder and
easier. It certainly makes it easier to understand and characterize the uncertainty in a
forecast. One of our goals is to set down ideas and a framework for understanding
how climate predictions can be used. Judging the quality of a prediction is based on
understanding what the uncertainty is and where it comes from. Some comes from
the model and some comes from how the experiment is set up (the initial conditions
and the scenario).
12 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling

1.4 Summary

Climate can best be thought of as a distribution of all possible weather states. What
matters to us is the shape of the distribution. Weather is where we are on the
distribution at any point in time. The extreme values in the distribution, that usually
have low probability, are hard to predict, but that is where most of the impacts lie.
Weather and climate models are similar, except weather models are designed to
predict the exact location on a distribution, while climate models describe the
distribution itself.
We use models all the time to predict the future. Some models are physical
objects, some are numerical models. Climate models are one type of a numerical
model: As we shall see, they can often be thought of as giant spreadsheets that keep
track of the physical properties of the earth system, the same way a budget keeps
track of money.
Uncertainty in climate models has several components. They are related to the
model itself, to the initial conditions for the model (the starting point) and to the
inputs that affect the model over time in a “scenario.” All three must be addressed
for a model to be useful. Uncertainty is not to be feared. Uncertainty is not a failure
of models. Uncertainty can be understood and used to assess confidence in
predictions.
Key Points

• Climate is the distribution of possible weather states at any place and time.
• Extremes of climate are where the impacts are.
• We use models all the time to predict the future, some models are even
numerical.
• Weather and climate models are similar but have different goals.
• Uncertainty has several different parts (model, scenario, initial conditions).

Open Access This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-
Noncommercial 2.5 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/) which permits any
noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s)
and source are credited.
The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the work’s Creative
Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if such material is not included in
the work’s Creative Commons license and the respective action is not permitted by statutory
regulation, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to duplicate, adapt or
reproduce the material.
Chapter 2
Components of the Climate System

We experience climate generally at the surface of the earth. This is the intersection
of a number of different and distinct parts of the climate system. Understanding the
different components of the climate system is critical for being able to simulate the
system. As we will discuss, the climate system is typically simulated as a set of
building blocks, from each individual process (i.e., the condensation of water to
form clouds) collected into a model of one part or component of the system (i.e., the
atmosphere), and then coupled to other components of the system (i.e., ocean, land,
ice). Understanding and then representing in a model the different interactions
between processes and then between components is critical for being able to build a
representation of the system: a climate model.
In this chapter we describe the basic parts of the earth system that comprise the
climate system, some of the key scientific principles and critical processes neces-
sary to simulate each of these components. This forms the background to a dis-
cussion of how climate might change (see Chap. 3) and a more detailed discussion
of each component and how it is simulated (Sect. 2.2, Chaps. 5–8). We discuss the
key components of the earth system, as well as some of the critical interactions
(discussed in more detail in Chap. 8).

2.1 Components of the Earth System

Figure 2.1 represents a schematic of many of the important components of the earth
system that govern and regulate climate. Broadly, there are three different regions of
the planet: the atmosphere, the oceans and the land (or terrestrial) surface. In
addition to these general regions, we also speak of a cryosphere, the snow and ice
covered regions of the planet. This fourth “sphere” spans the ocean (as sea ice) and
the terrestrial surface (as glaciers, snow and ice sheets). We address the cryosphere
in discussions of the ocean and terrestrial surface. While modeling the surface of the
earth is commonly thought of as just modeling the land surface, it also includes the
cryosphere (ice and snow) that sits on land. The term terrestrial is used to
encompass all these spheres, though the common term land is also used.

© The Author(s) 2016 13

A. Gettelman and R.B. Rood, Demystifying Climate Models,
Earth Systems Data and Models 2, DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8_2
14 2 Components of the Climate System

Sun
Atmosphere
Anthroposphere

Biosphere
Ice (cryosphere)
Ocean
Terrestrial (land)

Fig. 2.1 The Earth system. The climate system contains different spheres (components):
atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, cryosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere

These are the traditional physical components of the earth’s climate system. We
also introduce two more “spheres.” An important fifth component of the system is
the biosphere: the living organisms on the planet, again, which span the terrestrial
surface (plants, organisms in the soil, and animals) as well as the ocean (fish and
plants in the ocean). We discuss the biosphere as part of both the ocean and
terrestrial surface. Finally, although humans are technically part of the biosphere,
our large “footprint” and impact on the global environment and the climate system
is large enough that we can define a separate sphere for human activity and impacts
called the anthroposphere (see Chap. 3).

2.1.1 The Atmosphere

The atmosphere is usually the first part of the climate system we naturally think of.
It is literally the air we breathe: mostly inert nitrogen (78 %) with oxygen (16 %)
and then other trace gases (argon, water vapor, carbon dioxide). The oxygen is a
by-product of the respiration (“breathing”) of plants and other organisms: It is
evidence of life on earth. The oxygen in the atmosphere did not exist before the
emergence of living organisms.1 Oxygen is emitted by plants as an outcome of
photosynthesis that removes carbon from carbon dioxide. Oxygen reacts with
materials (rock and ore) at the earth’s surface (oxidation) and disappears from the
atmosphere. One of the most common reactants is iron (iron oxide = rust), which is
responsible for the red color of many rocks. Unless organisms continue to produce
oxygen, it will disappear from the atmosphere. It would take a long time however:
hundreds of thousands to millions of years. But it is the trace species—water vapor,
carbon dioxide and methane—known as the greenhouse gases, that are most
important in understanding the climate system and how climate might change.

1
Kasting, J. F., & Siefert, J. L. (2002). “Life and the Evolution of Earth’s Atmosphere.” Science,
296(5570): 1066–1068.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 The fur business of Canada has its beginning
when the company trader strikes a bargain with the
Eskimo for his season’s catch of the white fox of the
arctic and other skins.
 The Hudson’s Bay Company has more than two
hundred trading posts where Indians, Eskimos, and
white trappers exchange furs for goods. Eighteen of
the stations lie near or north of the Arctic Circle.
 Most of the fine fox skins now marketed in
Canada come from animals raised in captivity on fur
farms. Occasionally a cat may act as a substitute
mother for a litter of fox kittens.
Winnipeg has long been an important city in the Canadian fur
trade, and here the world’s greatest fur organization has its
headquarters. I refer, of course, to the Hudson’s Bay Company,
which for more than two hundred and fifty years has been bartering
goods for the furs of British North America. It was founded when the
British had scarcely a foothold in Canada, and its operations won for
them their dominion over the northwestern part of our continent. In
the beginning it was but one of many trading enterprises of the New
World. To-day it has adapted itself to the tremendous changes in our
civilization and it is bigger, stronger, and richer than ever.
Massachusetts Colony was not fifty years old when the
Nonsuch, loaded to the waterline with the first cargo of furs, sailed
for England from Hudson Bay. The success of the voyage led the
dukes and lords who backed the venture to ask King Charles II for a
charter. This was granted in 1670, and thus came into existence, so
far as the word of a king could make it so, “The Governor and
Company of Adventurers of England Trading into Hudson’s Bay,”
exclusive lords and proprietors of a vast and but vaguely known
region extending from Hudson Bay westward, with sole rights to fish,
hunt, and trade therein.
It remained for the Company to make good the privileges
conferred by the charter and maintain the profits, which at that period
sometimes amounted to one hundred per cent. a year. For nearly a
century the company’s ships and forts did battle with the armed
forces of the French. For another long period its factors and traders
had to meet the attacks of rival companies. At times the company
was nearly wiped out by the heavy losses it sustained. For almost
two centuries it furnished the only government of the Canadian
Northwest, and without the use of a standing army it administered a
vast region, out of which provinces and territories have since been
carved.
The “Company of Adventurers” has now become a fifteen million
dollar corporation, paying regularly five per cent. on ten million
dollars’ worth of preferred stock. A fleet of river, lake, and ocean
steamers has succeeded the Nonsuch. The early trading posts,
stocked with crude tools, weapons, and ornaments for the Indians,
have been supplemented by a chain of eleven department stores,
extending from Winnipeg to Vancouver, and at the same time the
number of trading posts exchanging goods for furs is greater than
ever. There are about two hundred of these posts, eighteen of which
are near or north of the arctic circle. The Company no longer actually
governs any territory, and it is selling to settlers the remainder of the
seven million acres in the fertile belt it has received from the
Dominion since the surrender of its ancient rights in the Northwest.
The story of the Hudson’s Bay Company is a large part of the
history of Canada. Many books have been written about it, and
countless romances built upon the lives of its men stationed in the
wilds. Here at Winnipeg the company has an historical exhibit where
one may visualize the life of the trappers and the traders, and gain
an idea of the adventures that are still commonplaces in their day’s
work. The company museum contains specimen skins of every kind
of Canadian fur-bearing animal. The life of the Indians and the
Eskimos is reproduced through the exhibits of their tools, boats,
weapons, and housekeeping equipment.
The success of the Hudson’s Bay Company has rested upon its
relations with the Indians. The organization is proud of the fact that it
has never engaged in wars with the tribes. The business has always
been on a voluntary basis, and the Indians have to come to the
Company posts of their own free will. At first the traders’ stocks were
limited, but through centuries of contact with civilization the wants of
the red man have increased and become more varied. They now
include nearly everything that a white man would wish if he were
living in the woods.
The first skins brought in from Hudson Bay were practically all
beavers. This led to the exchange being based on the value of a
single beaver skin, or “made beaver.” Sticks, quills, or brass tokens
were used, each designating a “made beaver,” or a fraction thereof.
The prices of a pound of powder, a gun, or a quart of glass beads
were reckoned in “made beaver.”
Early in its history the Company decided that Scotchmen made
the best traders and were most successful in dealing with the
Indians. Young Scotchmen were usually apprenticed as clerks on
five-year contracts, and if successful they might hope to become
traders, chief traders, factors, and chief factors. Men in these grades
were considered officers of the company and received commissions.
Mechanics and men engaged in the transport service were known as
“servants” of the company, and the distinction between “servants,”
clerks, and officers was almost as marked as in the various military
ranks of an army. To-day, Canada is divided into eleven districts,
each of which is in charge of a manager, and the old titles are no
longer used.
A trader had to be a diplomat to preserve friendly relations with
the Indians, an administrator to manage the Company’s valuable
properties in his charge, a shrewd bargainer to dispose of his stock
on good terms, and at times soldier and explorer besides. The
Company’s charter authorized it to apply the laws of England in the
territories under its jurisdiction, and its agents frequently had to
administer justice with a stern hand. It early became the inflexible
policy to seek out a horse thief, incendiary, or murderer among the
Indians and impose punishment, and it was the trader who had to
catch his man and sometimes to execute him.
It was the activities of its rivals, and especially of the Northwest
Company, that resulted in the establishment of the inland stations of
the Hudson’s Bay Company. As long as it had a monopoly, the
Company was content to set up posts at points convenient for itself,
and let the Indians do all the travelling, sometimes making them go
as much as one thousand miles to dispose of their furs. The
opposition, however, carried goods to the Indians, and thus
penetrated to the far Northwest and the Mackenzie River country.
This competition compelled the older organization to extend its posts
all over Canada, and finally, in 1821, led to its absorption of the
Northwest Company. To-day the chief competitor of the Hudson’s
Bay Company is the French firm of Revillon Frères.
The merger with the Northwest Company was preceded by
years of violent struggle. The younger concern was the more
aggressive. It tried to keep the Indians from selling furs to the
Hudson’s Bay traders. Its men destroyed the traps and fish nets, and
stole the weapons, ammunition, and furs of their rivals. Neither was
above almost any method of tricking the other if thereby furs might
be gained. Once some Hudson’s Bay men discovered the tracks of
Indians returning from a hunt. They at once gave a great ball, inviting
the men of the near by post of the rival company. While they plied
their guests with all forms of entertainment, a small party packed four
sledges with trade goods and stole off to the Indian camp. The next
day the Northwest men heard of the arrival of the Indians and went
to them to barter for furs, only to find that all had been sold to the
Hudson’s Bay traders. At another time two rival groups of traders
met en route to an Indian camp and decided to make a night of it.
But the Northwest men kept sober, and, when the Hudson’s Bay
men were full of liquor, tied them to their sleds and started their dog
teams back on the trail over which they had come. The Northwest
traders then went on to the Indians and secured all the furs.
 The Hudson’s Bay Company sends all of its raw skins to London,
where they are graded and prepared for the auction sales attended
by fur buyers from all over the world. It does not sell any in Canada.
Nevertheless, the Dominion is an important fur-making centre.
During a recent visit to Quebec, I spent a morning with the manager
of a firm which handles millions of dollars’ worth of furs every year. It
has its own workshops where the skins are cured and the furs
dressed and made into garments. The name of this firm is Holt,
Renfrew and Company. Let us go back to Quebec and pay it a visit.
Imagine a quarter of a million dollars’ worth of furs under one
roof! Picture to your minds raw skins in bales, just as they were
unloaded from an Indian canoe, and then look again and see wraps
and coats made from them that would each bring five thousand
dollars when sold on Fifth Avenue. If your imagination is vivid
enough you may see the American beauties who will wear them and
know how the furs will add to the sparkle of their eyes and at the
same time lighten the purses of their sweethearts and husbands.
We shall first go to the cold storage rooms. Here are piles of
sealskins from our Pribilof Islands. Put one of these furs against your
cheek. It feels like velvet. In these rooms are beavers from Labrador,
sables from Russia, and squirrels from Siberia. There are scores of
fox skins—blue, silver, black, and white. Some of them come from
the cold arctic regions and others from fox farms not twenty minutes
distant by motor. Take a look at this cloak of silvery gray fur. A year
ago the skins from which it was made were on the backs of hair
seals swimming in the mouth of the St. Lawrence River.
As we go through the factory, some of the secrets of fur making
are whispered to us. For example, this bale contains fifteen hundred
skins of the muskrat. The animals which produced them will change
their names after a trip to the dyers. They will go into the vats and
when they come out they will be Hudson Bay seals, and eventually
will find their way into a black coat with a wonderful sheen. Years
ago the muskrat skin was despised. Now it is made into coats that,
under the trade name of Hudson seal, bring nearly as much as those
of real seal.
 Here are two Russian sables, little fellows of beautiful fur, that
together will form a single neck piece. The undressed skins are
worth seven hundred dollars the pair. As we look, the manager
shows us two native sables that seem to be quite as fine. He tells us
they can be had for eighty-five dollars each, or less than a quarter of
the price of the Russian.
The most valuable fur in the world to-day is the sea otter, of
which this firm gets only three or four skins in a year. But, in contrast,
over there is a whole heap of Labrador otters, beautiful furs, which
will wear almost for ever and will look almost as well as the sea otter
itself. But you can have your choice of these at forty dollars apiece.
They are cheap chiefly because the Labrador skin is not in fashion
with women. Fashion in furs is constantly changing. Not many years
ago a black fox skin often brought as much as fifteen hundred
dollars. To-day, so many are coming from the fur farms that the price
has fallen to one hundred and fifty dollars. Scarcity is one of the chief
considerations in determining the value of furs, and fashion always
counts more than utility. The rich, like the kings of old, demand
something that the poor cannot have, and lose their interest in the
genuine furs when their imitations have become common and cheap.
The dyer and his art have greatly changed the fur trade. It is he
who enables the salesgirl to wear furs that look like those of her
customers. For example, here is a coat made of the best beaver. Its
price is four hundred dollars, and beside it is another made of dyed
rabbit fur, marked one hundred and fifty dollars. It is hard for a novice
to tell which is the better. All sorts of new names have been devised
by the furriers to popularize dyed skins of humble animals, from
house cats to skunks, in order to increase the supply of good-looking
and durable furs. Reliable dealers will tell you just what their
garments are made of, but the unscrupulous pass off the imitations
as the genuine article.
The business of dyeing furs was developed first in Germany,
when that country led the world in making dyes. Now that New York
is competing with London as a great fur market many of the best
German dyers are at work there. From the standpoint of the
consumer, the chief objection to dyed fur is that the natural never
fades, while the dyed one is almost certain to change its hue after a
time.
Now let us go into the rooms where the furs are made up. It is
like a tailor shop. Here is a designer, evolving new patterns out of big
sheets of paper. There are the cutters, making trimmings, stoles,
neck pieces, and coats. Each must be a colour expert, for a large
part of the secret of fashioning a beautiful fur garment is in the skillful
matching of the varying shades to give pleasing effects. Were the
skins for a coat sewn together just as they come from the bale, the
garment resulting would be a weird-looking patchwork. Even before
the skins are selected, they must be graded for the colours and
shadings which go far to determine their value. There are no rules
for this work; it takes a natural aptitude and long experience. In the
London warehouse of the Hudson’s Bay Company, the men of a
single family have superintended the grading of all the millions of
skins handled there for more than one hundred years.
Turn over this unfinished beaver coat lying on the bench and
look at the wrong side. See how small are the pieces of which it is
made and how irregular are their shapes. It is a mass of little
patches, yet the outer, or right side, looks as though it were made of
large skins, all of about the same size and shape. A coat of muskrat,
transformed by dyeing into Hudson seal, may require seventy-five
skins; a moleskin coat may contain six hundred. But in making up
either garment each skin must be cut into a number of pieces and
fitted to others in order to get the blending of light and dark shades
which means beauty and quality.
 The Eskimo woman and her children wear as
every-day necessities furs which if made into more
fashionable garments would bring large sums. Usually
the whole family goes on the annual trip to the trading
post.
 As Saskatchewan was not made a province until
1904, Regina is one of the youngest capital cities in
Canada. It was for many years the headquarters of
the Mounted Police for all the Northwest.
 CHAPTER XXIII
SASKATCHEWAN

We have left Winnipeg and are now travelling across the great
Canadian prairie, which stretches westward to the Rockies for a
distance of eight hundred miles. This land, much of which in summer
is in vast fields of golden grain, is now bare and brown, extending on
and on in rolling treeless plains as far as our eyes can reach. Most of
it is cut up into sections a mile square, divided by highway spaces
one hundred feet wide. However, an automobile or wagon can go
almost anywhere on the prairie, and everyone makes his own road.
Sixty miles west of Winnipeg we pass Portage la Prairie, near
where John Sanderson, the man who filed the first homestead on the
prairies, is still living. This part of the Dominion was then inhabited by
Indians, and its only roads were the buffalo trails made by the great
herds that roamed the country. To-day it is dotted with the
comfortable homes of prosperous farmers, and the transcontinental
railways have brought it within a few days’ travel of the Atlantic and
the Pacific seaboards.
A hundred and fifty miles farther west we cross the boundary into
Saskatchewan, the greatest wheat province of the Dominion. It has
an area larger than that of any European country except Russia, and
is as large as France, Belgium, and Holland combined. From the
United States boundary, rolling grain lands extend northward through
more than one third of its area. The remainder is mostly forest,
thinning out toward Reindeer Lake and Lake Athabaska at the north,
and inhabited chiefly by deer, elk, moose, and black bear. There are
saw-mills at work throughout the central part of the province, and the
annual lumber cut is worth in the neighbourhood of two million
dollars.
 Except at the southwest, Saskatchewan is well watered. The
Saskatchewan River, which has many branches, drains the southern
and central sections. This stream in the early days was a canoe
route to the Rockies. For a long time afterward, when the only
railway was the Canadian Pacific line in the southern part of the
province, the river was the highway of commerce for the north. It was
used largely by settlers who floated their belongings down it to the
homesteads they had taken up on its banks. Now the steamboats
that plied there have almost entirely disappeared. The northern part
of the province is made up of lakes and rivers so numerous that
some of them have not yet been named. The southwest is a strip of
semi-arid land that has been brought under cultivation by irrigation
and now raises large crops of alfalfa.
A small part of southwestern Saskatchewan, near the Alberta
boundary, is adapted for cattle and sheep raising. The Chinook
winds from the Pacific keep the winters mild and the snowfall light,
so that live stock may graze in the open all the year round.
Elsewhere the winters are extremely cold. The ground is frozen dry
and hard, the lakes and streams are covered with ice, and the
average elevation of about fifteen hundred feet above sea level
makes the air dry and crisp. The people do not seem to mind the
cold. I have seen children playing out-of-doors when it was twenty-
five degrees below zero. The summers are hot, and the long days of
sunshine are just right for wheat growing.
After travelling fourteen or fifteen hours from Winnipeg, we are in
Regina, the capital of Saskatchewan, on the main line of the
Canadian Pacific, about midway between Winnipeg and the Rockies.
I visited it first in 1905, when the province was less than a year old.
Until that time all the land between Manitoba and British Columbia,
from the United States to the Arctic Ocean, belonged to the
Northwest Territories. It had minor subdivisions, but the country as a
whole was governed by territorial officials with headquarters at
Regina. As the flood of immigrants began to spread over the West,
the people of the wheat belt decided that they wanted more than a
territorial government and so brought the matter before the Canadian
parliament. As a result the great inland provinces of Saskatchewan
and Alberta were formed. They are the only provinces in the
Dominion that do not border on the sea.
Regina was then a town of ragged houses, ungainly buildings,
and wide streets with board sidewalks reaching far out into the
country. One of the streets was two miles long, extending across the
prairie to the mounted police barracks and the government house.
Regina was the headquarters of the Northwest Mounted Police until
that organization was amalgamated with the dominion force as the
Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and the city is still a training camp
for recruits. Saskatchewan was not then old enough to have a state
house, and the government offices were in rooms on the second
floors of various buildings. Most of the provincial business was done
in a little brick structure above the Bank of Commerce.
The hotels of the town were then packed to overflowing, even in
winter, and in the spring and summer it was not uncommon to find
the halls filled with cots. I had to sleep in a room with two beds, and
with a companion who snored so that he shook the door open night
after night. It was of no use to complain, as the landlord could tell
one to go elsewhere, knowing very well that there was no elsewhere
but outdoors.
To-day Regina is ten times as large as it was twenty years ago. It
is a modern city with up-to-date hotels, ten banks, handsome
parliament buildings, and twelve railway lines radiating in every
direction. It is the largest manufacturing centre between Winnipeg
and Calgary, and an important distributing point for farm implements
and supplies.
The dome of the capitol building, which was completed in 1911,
can now be seen from miles away on the prairie. This is an imposing
structure five hundred and forty-two feet long, situated in the midst of
a beautiful park on the banks of an artificial lake made by draining
Wascana Creek. The city has many other parks, and the residence
streets are lined with young trees, planted within the last twenty
years. Forty miles to the east is a government farm at Indian Head,
where experiments are made in growing and testing trees suited to
the prairies. Fifty million seedlings have been distributed in one year
among the farms and towns. Out in the country the trees are planted
as windbreaks and to provide the farmers with fuel. They have
greatly changed the aspect of the prairies within the last two
decades.
 The grain lands of western Canada begin in
Manitoba in the fertile Red River valley, which is world
famous for the fine quality of its wheat. From here to
the Rockies is a prairie sea, with farmsteads for
islands.
 American windmills tower over Saskatchewan
prairie lands that were largely settled by American
farmers. The province is still so thinly populated that it
has only five people to every ten square miles.
 The wheat harvest, like time and tide, waits for no
man and when the crop is ready it must be promptly
cut. The grain is usually threshed in the fields and
sent at once to the nearest elevator.
While in Regina I have had a talk with the governor-general of
Saskatchewan in his big two-story mansion that twenty years ago
seemed to be situated in the middle of the prairie. When I motored
out to visit His Excellency, although I was wrapped in buffalo robes
and wore a coon-skin coat and coon-skin cap, I was almost frozen,
and when I entered the mansion it was like jumping from winter into
the lap of summer. At one end of the house is a conservatory, where
the flowers bloom all the time, although Jack Frost has bitten off all
other vegetation with the “forty-degrees-below-zero teeth” he uses in
this latitude.
From Regina, the main line of the Canadian Pacific Railway runs
west to Calgary. Were we to travel by that route, we should pass
through Moose Jaw and Swift Current, two important commercial
centres for the wheat lands. The story is told that Lord Dunsmore, a
pioneer settler, once mended the wheel of his prairie cart with the
jaw bone of a moose on the site of the former city, and thus gave the
place its name. Moose Jaw is a live stock as well as a wheat
shipping point. It has the largest stock yards west of Winnipeg. An
extensive dairying industry has grown up in that region.
North of Regina are Prince Albert and Battleford, noted for their
fur trade and lumber mills, and also Saskatoon, the second largest
city of the province, which we shall visit on our way to Edmonton. At
Saskatoon is the University of Saskatchewan, which was patterned
largely after the University of Chicago. It has the right to a Rhodes
scholarship; and its departments include all the arts and sciences.
As sixty per cent. of the people are dependent upon agriculture,
farm courses receive much attention. A thousand-acre experimental
farm is owned by the university and the engineering courses include
the designing and operation of farm machinery. Even the elementary
schools are interested in agriculture, a campaign having been
carried on recently to eradicate gophers, which destroy the wheat.
The children killed two million of these little animals in one year,
thereby saving, it is estimated, a million bushels of grain. A
department of ceramics has been organized at the university to
experiment with the extensive clay deposits of the province, the
various grades of which are suited for building brick, tile, pottery, and
china. Saskatchewan’s only other mineral of any importance is lignite
coal, although natural gas has been discovered at Swift Current.
 CHAPTER XXIV
THE WORLD’S LARGEST WHEATFIELD

For the past two weeks I have been travelling through lands that
produce ninety per cent. of Canada’s most valuable asset—wheat.
The Dominion is the second greatest wheat country in the world,
ranking next to the United States. It is the granary of the British
Empire, raising annually twice as much wheat as Australia and fifty
million bushels more than India. The wheat crop is increasing and
Canada may some day lead the world in its production. These
prairies contain what is probably the most extensive unbroken area
of grain land on earth. In fact, so much wheat is planted in some
regions that it forms an almost continuous field reaching for
hundreds of miles. The soil is a rich black loam that produces easily
twenty bushels to an acre, and often forty and fifty.
The Canadian wheat belt extends from the Red River valley of
Manitoba to the foothills of the Rockies, and from Minnesota and
North Dakota northward for a distance greater than from
Philadelphia to Pittsburgh. New wheat lands are constantly being
opened, and large crops are now grown in the Peace River country,
three hundred miles north of Edmonton.
A man who is an authority on wheat raising tells me that the
possible acreage in the Canadian West is enormous. Says he:
“We have something like three hundred and twenty thousand
square miles of wheat lands. Divide this in two, setting half aside for
poor soil and mixed farming, and there is left more than one
hundred-thousand square miles. In round numbers, it is one hundred
million acres, and the probability is that it can raise an average of
twenty-five bushels to the acre. This gives us a possible crop of