Bonanza IC Note - 30 March 22
Bonanza IC Note - 30 March 22
Bonanza IC Note - 30 March 22
respectively over FY22-FY25E on back of industry consolidation and government focus on 500
smart cities & affordable housing. The current PVC Resin shortage will continue to stay, as 400
crude is hitting new highs (touched $130) due to Russia-Ukraine conflict. 300
CAPEX with strong distribution network, focus on branding & right product mix 200
Prince has utilized majority of its IPO proceeds (₹1,840 Mn) to set up 50k Tons of the 100
capacity in Telangana. By 9MFY22, it has spent ₹1,750 Mn and will close the FY22 with 0
approx. ₹2,000 Mn. Primary drivers for margin expansion would be inventory gain &
product mix improvement. The focus on brand awareness by choosing Akshay Kumar as
the brand ambassador and reducing dependence on agriculture segment (35% of revenue Prince Pipes S&P BSE Basic Material Midcap 150
in FY16 to 30% in FY21, remaining 60% is building material in FY21) is playing well for the
company. Prince has the largest distribution network of 1,500+ while, Astral (competitor)
has 850. As per the channel checks, Prince is the first choice among buyers in UPVC
compared to Astral. To leverage their distribution network, Prince has also launched range Stock Performance
of water tanks (June 2020) under the Brand “Storefit”. Return (%) 1 Month 6 Month 1 Year
Initiate Coverage with Buy Rating Absolute 0% -6.1% 58.3%
Prince has been enjoying high valuations since its IPO. We believe it is well-positioned to Relative
capture incremental market share and continues to be a strong challenger brand to sector (Basic
Material) -9% -8.4% 18.8%
leaders. The margins were a bit shy in FY22 as PVC prices declined, but it will improve
(Midcap) -3.9% -8.8% 31.3%
steadily in FY23-FY24. We initiate a Buy rating for the target price of ₹ 862 (35x PE [TTM
P/E is 27x] for FY23E EPS – 24.6).
Key Financials
Year to March 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E FY24E
Net sales (mn) 16,426 20,891 24,307 27,460 30,206
EBITDA (mn) 2,357 3,792 3,713 4,641 5,105 Analyst
EBITDAM (%) 14% 18% 15% 17% 17%
Anant Chaudhary
PAT (mn) 1,125 2,218 2,067 2,725 2,995 anant.chaudhary@bonanzaonline.com
ROE (%) 15% 24% 19% 20% 19% Tel: 91 22 6836 3754
ROCE (%) 20% 29% 23% 26% 24%
P/E (x) 8.7x 20.7x 34x 25x 23x
P/B (x) 1.3x 4.4x 6.1x 5.1x 4.3x
Source: Company, Bonanza Research
For private circulation only. For important information about Bonanza’s rating system and other discloser refer to the end of this material.
Prince Pipes & Fittings Ltd
Content
Prince background & PVC Pipes Industry trend………………………………………………………………………….3
Key Risk…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….21
Financial Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………22
CPVC, PPR and HDPE products have superior margins than the UPVC products. Prince is
India’s only company to offer 3 polymer solutions for Industrial applications through
“EASYFIT” in PVC, “GREENFIT” in PPR and now “ONEFIT CPVC piping”. It offers piping
systems and fittings in the segments such as plumbing, sewage, agriculture and bore well.
It has a total capacity of 292K MTPA and their seven manufacturing plants are located at
Uttrakhand, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Maharashtra, Chennai, Rajasthan and Telangana. The
company went public at the end of Dec’19. Promoters currently own 63% of the company.
Exhibit 2: Focus towards Building materials Exhibit 3: Pipe is the major contributor
30% 30%
70% 70%
Agri (Irrigation & Borewell) Bulding material (Plumbing & Sewage) Plastic Pipes Fittings
12% 14%
37%
20%
25%
68%
24%
Net Sales
3500
3020
3000 2745
2,430
2500
2072
2000
(In ₹ Cr)
1572 1636
1500 1246 1315
1006 957 1009
853
1000
446 519
500
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Source: Company, Bonanza Research
12%
300 13% 10%
510 8%
7% 9% 464
200 8% 379 371 6%
5%
100 236 4%
165 169 191
32 25 110 88 105 2%
71
0 0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
EBITDA EBITDAM
Source: Company, Bonanza Research
35%
31% 29%
30% 27% 26%
24% 23% 23% 24% 23%
25% 20% 35%
16% 27%
20% 25% 24%
21% 20%
15% 19% 19%
10% 15% 15%
5% 10% 42%
0%
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
ROE ROCE West North South
As per the latest available data, India consumes 11 kg per capita of plastic, which is well
below the world average of 28 kg, on the other hand, USA consumes a whopping 109 kg.
The Indian plastic pipes and fittings industry is expected to reach ₹ 500-550 billion by the
year 2025 growing at a CAGR of 10% from the current levels of ₹ 290-300 billion (as of
FY20). Out of that UPVC is 200 billion, CPVC is 50 billion (growing double digit) and other
polymers are 50 billion. DWC pipes, a sub-category of HDPE pipes are gradually replacing
RCC pipes in underground drainage and other infra projects due to its longer life and low
maintenance (Prince was the early mover in DWC pipes in 2017).
Due to their specialized nature, fittings and CPVC fetch higher margins compared to other
categories. Similarly, because of higher competition, companies earn lower margins in
agri compared to plumbing and sewerage. Manufacturing pipes is simple and not very
capital intensive, but fittings are different. Fittings require precision and significant
investment in moulds which makes it capital intensive compared to pipes (~3x of pipes).
The requirement to maintain large number of SKUs also increases the working capital in
fittings. On the other hand, pipe is a fast-moving product and have higher asset turnover
compared to fittings. However, due to its specialized nature, fittings fetch much higher
margin than pipes (~2x of pipes). So, higher share of fittings differentiates a company
from its competition as it helps them to sell more volumes of pipes.
Industry growth was driven by rising demand from the construction and irrigation sectors.
The sub-segments propelling off take in the construction space were increasing
investments in WSS (Water supply & Sanitation) projects, substitution of metal pipes with
polymer pipes, and replacement demand. The irrigation sector is the prime user of PVC
pipes, contributing ~47% to total sales. WSS and plumbing contribute 35-40% to the total
PVC pipe market in India. Out of India’s 142 million hectares of cultivated land, only 50%
is irrigated and about 63% of the irrigated land is dependent on tube wells which in turn
are monsoon-dependant. Irrigation will rise sharply by 8-9% CAGR by FY24 compared with
9-10% CAGR over the past five years (April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2019).
Swachh Bharat Mission: Swachh Bharat Mission and National Mission for Clean Ganga
(NMCG), Atal Mission for Rejuvenation & Urban Transformation (AMRUT) are likely to
boost investments in WSS. On the other hand, initiatives such as Pradhan Mantri Krishi
Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) will also off take the irrigation sector.
Exhibit 10: Various Polymers Market size in India (in ₹ Billion) (FY20)
50 UPVC
CPVC
50
Other
200 polymers
20%
20%
17%
15%
12%
10%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Fittings CPVC (Plumbing) PVC (Plumbing) SWR/DWC (infra) PVC (Agri)
Exhibit 13: Plastic Pipes & Fittings Industry growth Exhibit 14: CPVC likely to clock highest growth rate (FY14-25E)
Plastic Pipes & Fittings Industry Growth Product wise growth rate
20% 18%
600 18%
514
500 445 16%
391 14%
400 344 11% 11%
In ₹ Billion
12%
280 300 302 10%
300 250 10%
180 205 224
200 165 8%
6%
100 4%
0 2%
0%
UPVC CPVC HDPE PPR
Source: Astral AR FY21, Bonanza Research Source: Astral AR FY21, Bonanza Research
Exhibit 15: Prince has also shown healthy growth in last 5 years
30%
24% 25% 24%
25%
21%
20% 18%
16% 16%
15% 13% 12% 13%
11% 11% 11%
10% 7%
6%
5%
0%
Prince Pipes Astral Pipes Finolex Industries Ashirvad Pipes Supreme Industries
Revenue CAGR Operating Profit CAGR PAT CAGR
Exhibit 16: Focus on branding Exhibit 17: Prince is little behind in Revenue/distributor
2.5% 4.00
(Cr.)
2.1%
2.85 3.00
2.0% 3.00 2.64
1.6%
1.5% 1.2%
2.00
1.0%
1.38
0.5% 1.00
0.0% 0.00
Prince Pipes Astral Pipes Finolex Ashirvad Supreme Prince Pipes Astral Pipes Finolex Ashirvad Supreme
Industries Pipes* Industries Industries Pipes* Industries
Source: Company, Bonanza Research Source: Company, Bonanza Research
80
70 60
60 53 49
43 31
50
(In Days)
40
30
20
10
55 48 54 41 54 35 8 75 39 34 62 47 23 51 43
0
Prince Pipes Astral Pipes Finolex Industries Ashirvad Pipes* Supreme Industries
5yr Average Receivable days 5yr Average Inventory days 5yr Average Days Payable CCC
Prince Pipes Astral Pipes Finolex Industries Ashirvad Pipes Supreme Industries
Pipes Capacity in (MT) 2,90,000 2,63,342 3,70,000 2,00,000 2,50,000
Sales Volume in FY21 1,38,289 1,36,590 2,12,060 1,49,532 2,94,357
(MT)
Utilization (%) 50% 55% 58% N/A 58%
No. of Manufacturing 7 7 3 2 8
Facilities
Maharashtra, Tamil Gujarat, Tamil Maharashtra and Karnataka and Maharashtra, Telangana,
Manufacturing Location
Nadu, Uttarakhand, Nadu, Gujarat Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Dadra & Nagar Rajasthan, Pradesh and West Bengal
Haveli, Rajasthan Maharashtra &
and Telangana Uttarakhand
Product Portfolio UPVC, CPVC, HDPE, UPVC, CPVC, UPVC, CPVC pipes and UPVC, SWR, CPVC UPVC, CPVC, HDPE, PPR
PPR pipes and HDPE pipes and fittings, Water Tanks pipes and fittings pipes and fittings, Water
fittings, Water fittings, Water Tanks
Tanks Tanks
TTM total revenue (₹Mn) 25170 40,800 43,030 35,032* 73000
FY16-21 Revenue CAGR 11% 11% 6% 12% 7%
FY16-21 Operating profit 18% 21% 13% 13% 11%
CAGR
FY16-21 PAT CAGR 24% 25% 16% 24% 16%
% of revenues from 100% 76% 80% 100% 63%
Plastic pipes & fittings in
FY21
5 YR Avg. EBITDAM 13.0 16.2 19.8 18.9 16.1
(FY16-21) [%]
5 yr Avg. NPM (FY16-21) 6.0 8.2 12.2 10.4 8.6
[%]
5 YR Avg. CCC (FY16-21) 53 60 38 49 34
[Days]
5 yr Avg. ROE (FY16-21) 24 22 18 31 25
[%]
5 YR Avg. ROCE (FY16-21) 22 29 24 35 33
[%]
After usage, the pipes showed failure when used in hot water. In North India where the
summers are extremely hot, pipes failed due to this limitation, including water heater
lines, where the failures were very frequent.
Exhibit 20: UPVC has the major share in PVC pipes market, while CPVC is gaining market aggressively
Industry wise Polymer breakup (FY14) Industry wise Polymer breakup (FY20)
4% 1%
6%
13% 15%
10%
16%
64%
71%
UPVC CPVC HDPE PPR UPVC CPVC HDPE PPR Composite pipes
20%
35%
45%
Unorganised
Organised
80%
65%
55%
The early 2000 saw the entry of many alternative materials in India: CPVC was developed
by Lubrizol in the 1960 and is used extensively all over the world. Pipes have to be
concealed during the time of construction and any leakage or joint loosening requires
masonry work which damages the paint, tiles and overall look of the house. With
increased awareness about durability of plastic pipes and BIS standards, residential
consumers (UPCV, CPVC) and farmers (UPVC) are opting for better quality pipes to
minimize these problems.
However, exports started to become more popular for the local suppliers as prices rose
in international markets. As a result, the price of PVC pipes increased dramatically. The
PVC prices have increased twofold and continue to grow northward. Additionally, in
Feb’20, Government of India imposed an ADD (Anti-dumping duty) on imports of CPVC,
originating in or exported from China and Korea, for a period of 5 years. Over the years,
many PVC plants have had to shut down or shift from mercury-based catalyst processes
to mercury-free processes owing to strict environmental regulations in China. Around 18
mt capacity in China is still dependent on mercury-based catalyst processes. This led to a
shutdown of 4.5 mtpa of PVC capacities in China over 2015-19.
As per DGTR findings, imports from these two countries were ~32% of India’s overall CPVC
resin/compound imports. The government’s mandatory BIS (Bureau of Indian Standard)
quality norms have further aggravated the economic stability of small and medium
enterprises (SMEs) and have led the organized players to gain market share.
Exhibit 22: Pipes & Fittings is the major consumer of PVC Exhibit 23: Unorganised players couldn’t compete with big players
120%
5%
9% 100%
5% 80% 35%
40%
3% 50%
5% 60%
40%
73% 60% 65%
50%
20%
0%
FY10 FY15 FY21
Pipes & Fittings Films & Sheets Profiles
Wires & Cables Calendring sheets Others Organised Unorganised
PVC resin is the main RM for manufacturing of PVC pipes, while Ethylene dichloride (EDC,
which is produced from ethylene and chlorine by direct chlorination,) is RM for PVC resin.
Ethylene capacity in India stood at 7.05 million metric tons (Mt) in FY20. Reliance
Industries Limited (“RIL”) backward integrated as it produces ethylene, chlorine, EDC and
VCM (Vinlyl Chloride Monomer) at its Gujarat petrochemical plant. It is the largest
manufacturer of ethylene in India with a capacity of 3.8 Mt. PVC industry is the single
largest consumer of chlorine globally.
Domestic PVC resin capacity is pegged at approx. 1.5 mtpa (million tons per annum) while
demand stood at 4.12 MTPA in FY21 and is forecast to reach 7.03 Million Tonnes by
FY2030, growing at a healthy CAGR of 6.11% until FY30. Reliance Industries, CCVL
(Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls), Finolex Industries, DCW and DCM Sriram being the Key
producers. However, the scenario is expected to change now as India has announced the
second-highest capacity addition of PVC at 1.7 MTPA by 2025 after China.
India meets 50%/90%+ of PVC and CPVC requirement via imports. Imports have been
largely sourced from Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and China historically.
Exhibit 24: India is expected to lead the PVC capacity addition after China
Exhibit 26: Strong Correlation between PVC Resin and Crude Oil prices
Lubrizol deal and synergy with Ultratech to boost volume and margins
Post ADD imposition on PVC resin, in the late Aug’20, Prince tied up with US-based
Lubrizol – the world’s largest manufacturer of CPVC compound (Berkshire Hathaway
Company Founded in 1928) – for a period of 3 years and currently sells under the brand
“FlowGuard Plus”.
This tie-up will further support in improving the company’s market share. Sourcing of
quality resins is a strong entry barrier in CPVC pipes vis-à-vis other plastic pipes segments,
as there are very few quality RM global suppliers. Most top Indian plastic manufacturers
have tied up/source from either Lubrizol, Sekisui, Kaneka Corporation or Kem for one for
their CPVC resin needs.
The company has also entered into a 3 year technical collaboration with Tooling Holland
BV, 40+ years of experience in mould making, a global leader in the international plastic
injection moulding industry based in The Netherlands. The company specializes in
manufacture and exports of moulds for fittings (16-1000mm), crate and container
moulds, thin wall packaging moulds and PET perform moulds. The goal of this technical
partnership is to achieve optimal product design and mould layout, which will also help
optimise production costs while delivering superior product. During Dec’14-Dec’19,
Prince benefitted from a similar technical collaboration with “Wavin”. This collaboration
assisted the company in manufacturing and quality enhancement of plastic pipes, plant’s
productivity improvement, and sales. Prince and Ultratech Building Solution (UBS) have
also joined hands to create an additional revenue channel and opportunity to market
Prince’s product basket. Prince will distribute their products on UBS platform which has
a vast dealer (retail touch points) network of 2,000+.
Institutional Research 30 March 2022
Prince Pipes & Fittings Ltd
Exhibit 27: Tie up of Indian brands with International players for CPVC Resin
Exhibit 28: PAN India distribution network Exhibit 29: Akshay Kumar as Brand Ambassador
Regional Splilt
14%
31%
18%
37%
Exhibit 30: Rising number of distributors Exhibit 31: Increasing brand awareness
Launch of Loyalty Programme - Prince has been the first one in the industry to launch
“Udaan” - a loyalty programme for retailers and plumbers. This programme aims to
strengthen connect with its channel partners and plumbers, and to motivate them by
giving reward points on every purchase, which can be redeemed later in exchange for
gifts. This loyalty programme is currently operational in North India (except Madhya
Pradesh), West India, South India and East India (only Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal).
Prince also conducts Parivaar and Mitra Meets (include dealer/plumber meets).
Telangana plant will reduce logistics cost and spread brand awareness in south region
Even without having an integrated plant in South, Prince is among the top 3 choice of
consumers (as per our channel check). They are now coming up with an integrated CPVC
plant in Telangana for CPVC pipes and fittings and other polymers (partially operational),
which has a total cost of ₹195 Cr. for 50,000 Tons of capacity. It is to be commissioned in
two phases; phase 1 has been completed in February 2021 and phase 2 is expected to be
completed by end of FY22. As of 9MFY22, ₹175-180 Cr. has already been spent, and the
entire amount will be utilized in the next couple of months. In pipes, transportation costs
play a critical role due to bulkiness of the product. This will further reduce logistics cost
and improve margins going forward.
Prince has Launched various new products like Double wall corrugated pipes (these will
replace traditional RCC pipes in underground piping), low noise drainage system and
water tank with the name of “Storefit”
Moving on to the water tank industry, which is highly fragmented, the market size we
estimate is about 4,000 Cr. and the organized to the unorganized split is 30:70.
Exhibit 34: Major Water tank market is still unorganised Exhibit 35: B2C is the bigger trend as of now
20%
30%
70%
80%
Government push towards WSS - WSS and plumbing are the second largest segments for
plastic pipes, accounting for 35-40% share of the plastic pipes market. In the past five
Fiscal years (i.e., from April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2019), government expenditure on the
sector rose at 22% CAGR to about ₹624 billion in Fiscal 2019.
Exhibit 36: Growth in Irrigation (in ₹ Bn) Exhibit 37: Rising Water supply & sanitation (WSS) (in ₹ Bn)
Budget 2022 (Focus on Real Estate market) - The budget defines ₹ 480 billion being
allotted for housing projects under PM Housing Scheme. Furthermore, ₹ 600 billion
allocated to cover 38 million households for tap water as part of “Har Ghar Nal Se Jal”
Scheme and the continuation of the expansion of National Highways all of which augurs
well for the pipes and the fitting industry.
The Cabinet decided that the flagship rural scheme, “Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana Gramin”
will be provided ₹ 2.17 Lakh crore in addition to central and state funding to achieve its
target of building ₹ 2.95 crore houses. NITI Aayog expects that the Indian real estate sector
will reach a market size of $1 trillion by 2030 and will account for 13% of India’s GDP by
2025. Already being the third-largest sector to bring about economic growth, the real estate
industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2022.
Exhibit 38: Real estate on a growth trajectory on the back of affordable housing/ Lower interest rates and WFH trend
Demand for Commercial spaces in top 8 cities (Million Sq. ft.) PE/VC Investment in Indian Real estate ($ Billion)
45 8
40 7
35
6
30
5
25
4
20 39.3 6.7
3 6.6
15 33.2 33
28 28 29
10 2
3.3
5 1
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2019 2020 2021 (till Sept)
12
10
6 12.3
4
5.9 6
2 3.7 4.6 4.5
0.9 1.4
0
Pune NCR Mumbai Kolkata Hyderabad Chennai Bengaluru Ahmedabad
Source: IBEF, Bonanza Research
Atmanirbhar Bharat will drive growth further going forward -The Aatmanirbhar Bharat
campaign was strengthened by RBI’s announcement of loan moratoriums. Stamp duty
cuts and reduction in loan rates continues to aid real estate developers during these
volatile times. The implementation of Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) has helped
boost investments in real estate, enhancing transparency.
Exhibit 39: Slight dip in Volume in FY22 (in KT) Exhibit 40: Healthy Margins
Exhibit 41: Strong Sales growth and improving cash conversion cycle
Net Sales
3500 3131
3000 2796
2,431
2500 2072
2000 1572 1636
(In Cr)
40
30
20
10 55 38 41 41 57 59 8 50 67 46 58 64 45 48 47
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA Margins shot up from 12% in FY19 to 18% in FY21 on inventory gains related to
uptrend in PVC prices and hence improved the operating efficiencies/cost cutting. Though
the trend of margin improvement related to inventory gain has reversed in FY22 due to
sharp correction in PVC resin prices (inventory loss). But due to Russia - Ukraine conflict,
we are seeing another uptrend from March 2022 onwards (Jan and Feb 2022 saw a
reduction in prices.) and it will further pickup inventory gain in FY23 along with operating
efficiencies, product mix improvements which will help the company posting a 15-17%
EBITDAM in next couple of years.
The company has repaid all its long term borrowing, reducing the overall borrowing from
₹264 Cr. in FY20 to ₹161 Cr. by H1FY22.
Debt to Equity
2
1.55
1.5 1.33
1.15
1
0.63
0.5 0.29
0.08
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
The Indian piping industry has seen significant unorganised to organised shift in the last
couple of years due to rising awareness of use of quality pipes, this has been further aided
by the pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions leading to raw material sourcing
challenges for unorganized/regional players. Higher crude prices, due to Russia-Ukraine
conflict clearly shows that higher PVC resin prices are here to stay for a while.
The company has been focussing on improving its product mix, investing in branding,
higher utilization levels and enhancing its distribution reach. Telangana plant will further
strengthen Prince’s brand in the Southern region and reduce logistics cost as well.
EBITDA and PAT will be flattish in FY22 as volume growth will be offset by PVC price
softening but as utilization levels pick up, operating leverage will drive EBITDA gains. We
expect Volume/Revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a healthy 10%/11%/15%/17% CAGR
respectively over FY22-FY25E.
Going ahead, we anticipate the market share pendulum to shift decisively in favour of
large organized players given the worsening financial position of small fragmented
players. We initiate a Buy rating for the target price of ₹862 (35x PE, which is average P/E
multiple of the industry, for FY23 EPS of 24.6).
Valuation TP
Target P/E multiple (x) 35
FY23 Forward EPS (₹) 24.6
Target price per share (Rs) 862
No. of shares (Mn) 110.6
Target Mkt. cap (Rs MN) 95779
Key Risk
Volatility in Raw material price - Prince Operations by change in raw material price (PVC
Resin, a derivative of Crude oil), as they import half of its requirement. High volatility in
Crude will lead to unsustainable margins.
The operation of the company continues to remain moderately Working Capital intensive.
Slowdown in Agriculture sector (30% of the revenue) and lower government spending on
infrastructure will hurt the growth prospects of the industry.
Disclosure:
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not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of
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