Bata - Financial Modelling
Bata - Financial Modelling
Years Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 LTM
COGS ₹ 1,633.4 ₹ 1,484.2 ₹ 1,523.4 ₹ 1,574.9 ₹ 1,695.0 ₹ 1,754.8 ₹ 1,230.3 ₹ 1,524.8 ₹ 2,564.4
COGS % Sales 60.63% 61.26% 61.57% 59.79% 57.83% 57.42% 72.01% 63.86% 76.82%
Gross Profit ₹ 1,060.65 ₹ 938.55 ₹ 950.83 ₹ 1,059.24 ₹ 1,236.13 ₹ 1,301.28 ₹ 478.18 ₹ 862.96 ₹ 773.86
Gross Margins 39.37% 38.74% 38.43% 40.21% 42.17% 42.58% 27.99% 36.14% 23.18%
Selling & General Expenses ₹ 709.46 ₹ 644.79 ₹ 655.03 ₹ 695.59 ₹ 746.29 ₹ 455.09 ₹ 309.23 ₹ 435.60 ₹ 0.00
S&G Exp % Sales 26.33% 26.61% 26.47% 26.41% 25.46% 14.89% 18.10% 18.24% 0.00%
EBITDA ₹ 351.19 ₹ 293.76 ₹ 295.80 ₹ 363.65 ₹ 489.84 ₹ 846.19 ₹ 168.95 ₹ 427.36 ₹ 773.86
EBITDA Margins 13.04% 12.13% 11.96% 13.81% 16.71% 27.69% 9.89% 17.90% 23.18%
Other Income ₹ 74.80 ₹ 97.40 ₹ 18.09 ₹ 48.66 ₹ 66.17 ₹ 65.55 ₹ 87.28 ₹ 53.74 ₹ 0.00
Interest ₹ 17.77 ₹ 15.79 ₹ 14.99 ₹ 14.82 ₹ 14.28 ₹ 128.71 ₹ 108.12 ₹ 99.43 ₹ 105.19
Interest % Sales 0.66% 0.65% 0.61% 0.56% 0.49% 4.21% 6.33% 4.16% 3.15%
Depreciation ₹ 79.28 ₹ 78.82 ₹ 65.04 ₹ 60.45 ₹ 64.05 ₹ 295.80 ₹ 264.75 ₹ 241.96 ₹ 290.02
Depreciation%Sales 2.94% 3.25% 2.63% 2.29% 2.19% 9.68% 15.50% 10.13% 8.69%
Earnings Before Tax ₹ 328.94 ₹ 296.55 ₹ 233.86 ₹ 337.04 ₹ 477.68 ₹ 487.23 -₹ 116.64 ₹ 139.71 ₹ 378.65
EBT % Sales 12.21% 12.24% 9.45% 12.79% 16.30% 15.94% -6.83% 5.85% 11.34%
Tax ₹ 97.6 ₹ 79.2 ₹ 74.9 ₹ 116.5 ₹ 148.7 ₹ 158.3 (₹ 27.3) ₹ 36.7 ₹ 105.8
Effective Tax Rate 29.67% 26.69% 32.03% 34.57% 31.13% 32.49% 23.42% 26.28% 27.94%
Net Profit ₹ 231.4 ₹ 217.4 ₹ 159.0 ₹ 220.5 ₹ 329.0 ₹ 328.9 (₹ 89.3) ₹ 103.0 ₹ 272.9
Net Margins 8.59% 8.97% 6.42% 8.37% 11.22% 10.76% -5.23% 4.31% 8.17%
No of Equity Shares 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85
Earnings per Share ₹ 18.00 ₹ 16.92 ₹ 12.37 ₹ 17.16 ₹ 25.60 ₹ 25.60 -₹ 6.95 ₹ 8.02 ₹ 21.23
EPS Growth % 0.00% -6.03% -26.88% 38.73% 49.20% -0.02% -127.15% -215.32% 164.91%
Dividend per Share ₹ 3.3 ₹ 3.5 ₹ 3.5 ₹ 4.0 ₹ 6.3 ₹ 4.0 ₹ 4.0 ₹ 54.5 ₹ 54.5
Dividend payout ratio 18.05% 20.69% 28.30% 23.31% 24.41% 15.63% -57.56% 680.03% 256.70%
Retained Earnings 81.95% 79.31% 71.70% 76.69% 75.59% 84.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
# Balance Sheet
Equity Share Capital ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3 ₹ 64.3
Reserves ₹ 956.9 ₹ 1,156.7 ₹ 1,260.1 ₹ 1,410.4 ₹ 1,677.6 ₹ 1,829.7 ₹ 1,693.8 ₹ 1,750.4
Borrowings - - - - - ₹ 1,249.1 ₹ 1,032.3 ₹ 1,094.2
Other Liabilities ₹ 259.0 ₹ 183.0 ₹ 181.0 ₹ 187.0 ₹ 216.0 ₹ 86.0 ₹ 102.0 ₹ 160.0
Trade Payables ₹ 357.0 ₹ 329.0 ₹ 408.0 ₹ 480.0 ₹ 516.0 ₹ 503.0 ₹ 440.0 ₹ 456.0
Total Liabilities ₹ 1,637.2 ₹ 1,732.9 ₹ 1,913.3 ₹ 2,141.7 ₹ 2,473.8 ₹ 3,732.0 ₹ 3,332.4 ₹ 3,524.9
Fixed Assets Net Block ₹ 308.7 ₹ 304.1 ₹ 268.0 ₹ 296.4 ₹ 316.5 ₹ 1,369.4 ₹ 1,119.5 ₹ 1,225.9
Capital Work in Progress ₹ 48.2 ₹ 19.0 ₹ 29.8 ₹ 12.1 ₹ 17.3 ₹ 19.9 ₹ 33.6 ₹ 5.2
Investments - - - - - - - -
Other Assets ₹ 306.9 ₹ 311.1 ₹ 320.1 ₹ 387.1 ₹ 394.3 ₹ 442.3 ₹ 394.9 ₹ 382.7
Total Non Current Assets ₹ 663.8 ₹ 634.2 ₹ 617.9 ₹ 695.7 ₹ 728.0 ₹ 1,831.6 ₹ 1,548.0 ₹ 1,613.7
Total Assets ₹ 1,637.0 ₹ 1,733.1 ₹ 1,923.1 ₹ 2,141.4 ₹ 2,474.1 ₹ 3,732.5 ₹ 3,332.5 ₹ 3,525.2
Investing Activities
Fixed assets purchased -146 -40 -51 -78 -82 -86 -37 -49
Fixed assets sold 13 1 4 2 0 0 1 1
Investments purchased 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Investments sold 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Interest received 20 18 26 40 49 64 75 47
Other investing items 48 -93 -208 -76 -245 -167 -92 91
Cash from Investing Activities (₹ 65.0) (₹ 114.0) (₹ 229.0) (₹ 112.0) (₹ 278.0) (₹ 189.0) (₹ 53.0) ₹ 93.0
Financing Activities
Proceeds from borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Repayment of borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from deposits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest paid fin -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1
Dividends paid -42 -42 -45 -45 -51 -80 -51 -51
Financial liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 -336 -315 -289
Other financing items -7 -8 -9 -9 -11 -18 -1 0
Cash from Financing Activities (₹ 51.0) (₹ 52.0) (₹ 56.0) (₹ 56.0) (₹ 63.0) (₹ 435.0) (₹ 368.0) (₹ 341.0)
Net Cash Flow ₹ 2.0 ₹ 37.0 (₹ 28.0) (₹ 7.0) ₹ 4.0 (₹ 42.0) ₹ 40.0 (₹ 37.0)
RATIO ANALYSIS - BATA INDIA LTD
Years Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 LTM Mean Median
Sales Growth - -10.1% 2.1% 6.5% 11.3% 4.3% -44.1% 39.8% 39.8% 6.2% 5.4%
EBITDA Growth - -16.4% 0.7% 22.9% 34.7% 72.7% -80.0% 153.0% 81.1% 33.6% 28.8%
EBT Growth - -9.8% -21.1% 44.1% 41.7% 2.0% -123.9% 219.8% 171.0% 40.5% 21.9%
Net Profit Growth - -6.0% -26.9% 38.7% 49.2% 0.0% -127.2% 215.3% 164.9% 38.5% 19.4%
Dividend Growth - 7.7% 0.0% 14.3% 56.2% -36.0% 0.0% 1262.4% 0.0% 163.1% 3.8%
Gross Margin 39.4% 38.7% 38.4% 40.2% 42.2% 42.6% 28.0% 36.1% 23.2% 36.5% 38.7%
EBITDA Margin 13.0% 12.1% 12.0% 13.8% 16.7% 27.7% 9.9% 17.9% 23.2% 16.3% 13.8%
EBIT Margin 12.9% 12.9% 10.1% 13.4% 16.8% 20.2% -0.5% 10.0% 14.5% 12.2% 12.9%
EBT Margin 12.2% 12.2% 9.5% 12.8% 16.3% 15.9% -6.8% 5.9% 11.3% 9.9% 12.2%
net Profit Margin 8.6% 9.0% 6.4% 8.4% 11.2% 10.8% -5.2% 4.3% 8.2% 6.8% 8.4%
Sales Expense (%ofSales) 26.3% 26.6% 26.5% 26.4% 25.5% 14.9% 18.1% 18.2% 0.0% 20.3% 25.5%
Depriciation (%ofSales) 2.9% 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 9.7% 15.5% 10.1% 8.7% 6.4% 3.3%
Operating Income (%ofSales) 12.9% 12.9% 10.1% 13.4% 16.8% 20.2% -0.5% 10.0% 14.5% 12.2% 12.9%
ROCE 34.0% 25.6% 18.8% 23.9% 28.2% 19.6% -0.3% 8.2% 0.0% 17.5% 19.6%
Retained Earnings 81.9% 79.3% 71.7% 76.7% 75.6% 84.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 52.2% 75.6%
ROE 22.7% 17.8% 12.0% 15.0% 18.9% 17.4% -5.1% 5.7% 0.0% 11.6% 15.0%
Growth Rate 18.6% 14.1% 8.6% 11.5% 14.3% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 11.5%
Int Coverage Ratio 19.51x 19.78x 16.60x 23.74x 34.45x 4.79x -0.08x 2.41x 4.60x 13.98x 16.60x
Debtor Turnover Ratio 46.11x 34.12x 35.65x 29.48x 44.18x 48.30x 21.53x 33.29x 0.00x 32.52x 34.12x
Credtor Turnover Ratio 4.58x 4.51x 3.73x 3.28x 3.28x 3.49x 2.80x 3.34x 0.00x 3.22x 3.34x
Inv Turnover Ratio 2.32x 2.17x 2.13x 2.06x 2.02x 2.01x 2.02x 1.75x 0.00x 1.83x 2.02x
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio 8.73x 7.97x 9.23x 8.89x 9.26x 2.23x 1.53x 1.95x 0.00x 5.53x 7.97x
Capital Turnover Ratio 2.64x 1.98x 1.87x 1.79x 1.68x 1.61x 0.97x 1.32x 0.00x 1.54x 1.68x
(In days)
Debtor Days 8 11 10 12 8 8 17 11 0 9 10
Payable Days 80 81 98 111 111 105 131 109 0 92 105
Inventory Days 157 169 171 177 181 182 180 208 0 158 177
Cash conversion Cycle 86 98 84 78 78 85 67 110 0 76 84
CFO/Sales 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.06 0.12 0.19 0.27 0.09 0.00 0.11 0.09
CFO/Total Assets 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.06 0.00 0.10 0.12
CFO/Total Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.45 0.19 0.00 0.12 0.00
SALES FORECASTING EBITDA FORECASTING EPS FORECASTING 18
# Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year EBITDA EBITDA Growth Year Weight Year EPS EPS Growth
1 2010A 1275.0 1 2010A 163.0 1 2010A 6.9
2 2011A 1549.0 21.5% 2 2011A 239.0 46.6% 2 2011A 20.1 192.73%
3 2012A 1842.0 18.9% 3 2012A 287.0 20.1% 3 2012A 13.4 -33.52%
4 2013A 2065.0 12.1% 4 2013A 338.0 17.8% 4 2013A 14.9 10.98%
5 2014A 2379.5 15.2% 5 2014A 344.5 1.9% 5 2014A 16.4 10.57%
6 2015A 2694.0 13.2% 6 2015A 351.0 1.9% 6 2015A 18.0 9.56%
7 2016A 2423.0 -10.1% 7 2016A 294.0 -16.2% 7 2016A 16.9 -6.06%
8 2017A 2474.0 2.1% 8 2017A 296.0 0.7% 8 2017A 12.4 -26.85%
9 2018A 2634.0 6.5% 9 2018A 364.0 23.0% 9 2018A 17.2 38.72%
10 2019A 2931.0 11.3% 10 2019A 490.0 34.6% 10 2019A 25.6 49.18%
11 2020A 3056.0 4.3% 11 2020A 846.0 72.7% 11 2020A 25.6 -0.04%
12 2021A 1708.0 -44.1% 12 2021A 169.0 -80.0% 12 2021A -7.0 -127.16%
13 2022A 2388.0 39.8% 13 2022A 427.0 152.7% 13 2022A 8.0 -215.25%
14 2023E 2848.2 19.3% 14 2023E 504.9 18.2% 14 2023E 12.5 56.04%
15 2024E 2931.8 2.9% 15 2024E 526.4 4.3% 15 2024E 12.2 -2.28%
16 2025E 3015.4 2.9% 16 2025E 547.9 4.1% 16 2025E 11.9 -2.33%
17 2026E 3099.0 2.8% 17 2026E 569.3 3.9% 17 2026E 11.6 -2.39%
18 2027E 3182.6 2.7% 18 2027E 590.8 3.8% 18 2027E 11.4 -2.45%
# WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF DEBT
Current Assets
Inventories 765 839 874 608 871
Trade receivables 89 66 63 79 72
Loans n Advances 215 204 213 212 193
Other asset items 172 190 229 183 190
Total Current Assets 1241 1299 1379 1082 1326
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 480 516 503 440 456
Advance from Customers 0 0 5 8 13
Other liability items 187 216 81 94 148
Total Current Liablities 667 732 589 542 617
Net CAPEX 76 82 86 36 48
Change in Working capital -7 223 -250 169
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.61498
R Square 0.3782
Adjusted R Square
0.367837
Standard Error 0.069417
Observations 62
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.175854 0.175854 36.49412 1.05E-07
Residual 60 0.289122 0.004819
Total 61 0.464977
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.004372 0.008994 0.486113 0.628658 -0.01362 0.022362 -0.013618 0.022
-0.04951978 0.983115 0.162739 6.041036 1.05E-07 0.657588 1.308643 0.657588 1.309
# Calculation of PV of FCFF Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27
Less: Reinvestment Rate (as per industry) 35.4% 35.4% 35.4% 35.4% 35.4% 35.4%
PV of FCFF 644.1
PV of Terminal Value 2815.1
Enterprise Value 3459.3
Figures in crores
# MARKET DATA FINANCIALS VALUATION
Company Ticker Share Price Share O/s Equity Value Net Debt Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA Net Income EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E
Relaxo Footwear 852 24.89 21198 166 21363 2716 434 154 7.9x 49.2x 137.6x
Bata India 1491 12.85 19160 250 19410 3338 480 320 5.8x 40.4x 59.8x
Campus Activewe. 359 30.47 10925 396 11321 1529 245 110 7.4x 46.2x 99.1x
Mirza Internatio 63 13.82 866 67 933 1996 236 158 0.5x 4.0x 5.5x
Sreeleathers 186 2.32 431 -4 427 187 24 23 2.3x 17.7x 19.1x
Liberty Shoes 244 1.70 415 121 536 615 46 14 0.9x 11.8x 30.5x
Khadim India 226 1.80 406 290 696 657 68 16 1.1x 10.3x 25.6x
Superhouse Ltd 258 1.10 283 127 411 780 69 35 0.5x 6.0x 8.0x
Bhartiya Intl. 184 1.22 225 464 688 808 42 -13 0.9x 16.5x -17.2x
AKI India 114 1.34 153 28 181 61 5 2 3.0x 36.5x 92.9x