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CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA FINAL EXAMINATION

COURSE COURSE CODE EXAMINATION TIME

INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS/BUSINESS STATISTICS QMT181/212/216 SEPTEMBER 2011 3 HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1. 2. 3. This question paper consists of five (5) questions. Answer ALL questions in the Answer Booklet. Start each answer on a new page. Do not bring any material into the examination room unless permission is given by the invigilator. Please check to make sure that this examination pack consists of: i) ii) iii) iv) the Question Paper a three - page Appendix 1 (Formula List) an Answer Booklet - provided by the Faculty graph paper - provided by the Faculty

4.

DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

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CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

QUESTION 1 a) The Student Affairs department of a college is interested to find the average amount of pocket money received by each student per month. Initial information showed that the amount of pocket money received can be summarized as follows: 600 students receive high amount (RM500 and above) 1500 students receive medium amount (RM300 < RM500), 500 students receive small amount (RM200 < RM300), and 400 students receive very small amount (less than RM200). i) State the variable of interest. Identify if the variable is qualitative, quantitative discrete or quantitative continuous. (2 marks) ii) Construct a question each with the following level of measurement: nominal ratio to elicit information for the above study. (4 marks) iii) State the most suitable data collection method. (1 mark) iv) Describe the selection of a random sample of 500 students using stratified random sampling method. (5 marks) If the sampling technique in (iv) is used for this study, can inferential techniques be used in analyzing the data? Give your reason. (2 marks)

v)

b)

Forty six companies recorded the time taken (days) to receive a shipment. Depict the data presented in the table below in the form of a histogram. Days to receive shipment 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13-15 16-18 Number of companies 6 8 10 7 10 5 (6 marks)

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CONFIDENTIAL QUESTION 2 a)

CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

The following data shows the responses to the question "How much do you spend on petrol per week?" given by eleven customers at a petrol station. 81 68 70 100 94 47 66 70 82 110 105

Construct a box and whisker plot and describe the skewness of the data. (6 marks)

b)

The unemployment rate for the months of January through December in year 2004 is tabulated below.

Jan 8.6

Feb 8.8

Mar 8.4

Apr 7.8

May 7.2

Jun 7.4

Jul 6.9

Aug 6.8

Sep 7.1

Oct 7.5

Nov 7.9

Dec 8.6

i)

Calculate the mean and the standard deviation of the unemployment rate. (5 marks) Calculate the coefficient of variation of the unemployment rate. (2 marks)

ii)

iii)

The coefficient of variation of the unemployment rate in 2005 was 7%. State which year has a more consistent unemployment rate. (1 mark)

c)

The number of appointments made through the telephone at a clinic are shown in the following table. Interval time (in minute) 0 2 4 6 i) and and and and less than 2 less than 4 less than 6 less than 8 Number of appointments 31 57 26 14

Construct a cumulative frequency table. Hence, draw a "less than" ogive. (4 marks) Using the ogive in (i), find the percentage of the number of appointments that takes less than 5 minutes. (2 marks)

ii)

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CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

QUESTION 3 a) A recent magazine article listed the "Best Small and Medium Companies" for the year 2006. A random sample of 8 companies was selected, and the sales and earnings, in million ringgit, are reported below: Company Dungun Enterprise Pemiagaan Kami Karang Adik Beradik Maju Enterprise Dar Sdn Bhd Setia Bersama Ayam Selera Halal Sdn Bhd i) Sales (RM million) 89.2 18.6 18.2 71.7 58.6 46.8 17.5 11.9 Earnings (RM million) 4.9 4.4 1.3 8.0 6.6 4.1 2.6 1.7

Contruct a scatter diagram. Hence, describe the relationship that might exist between earnings and sales based on the scatter diagram. (4 marks) Compute the Pearson coefficient of correlation. (4 marks)

ii)

iii)

Compute the coefficient of determination and interpret the value obtained. (2 marks) Determine the regression equation by using the least squares method. (4 marks) Estimate the earnings of a company with RM50 million in sales. (1 mark)

iv)

v)

b)

Six cars of different age were graded according to their performance where Grade A implies the highest performance. Calculate the Spearman rank correlation coefficient for the following data and give your comment. Performance Grade A A Age 2 3 B C 1 7 D 10 C 8 (5 marks)

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CONFIDENTIAL QUESTION 4 a)

CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

State whether the following statements are TRUE or FALSE. i) To study components of time series, the analyst must consider their mathematical relationships. Seasonal fluctuations are typically found in data classified quarterly, monthly, or weekly. The basic forces producing or affecting the trend of a series are population change, price change, technological change, productivity increases, and product life cycles. The cyclical component of the time series is identified by eliminating or averaging out the effects of the trend. (4 marks)

ii)

iii)

iv)

b)

The table below shows electrical usage data for a particular water power company for the year 2007 to 2009. Year 2007 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Kilowatt hours (millions) 1071 648 480 746 965 661 501 768 1065 667 486 780

2008

2009

i)

Let x = 1 for the first quarter of the year 2007. Determine the trend equation and the trend values using the least squares method. (6 marks) Calculate the seasonal indices for each quarter. (6 marks)

ii)

iii)

Explain the meaning of the seasonal indices for the first and third quarter. (2 marks) Forecast the electrical usage for the fourth quarter in 2010. (2 marks)

iv)

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CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

QUESTION 5 a) The following table shows the relative price index for certain food items in 2008 compared to 2007. Food Item Kailan Ikan Kembung Ikan Selar Kuning Sawi Limau Tempatan i) Relative price index (%) 106.5 103.2 103.1 101.7 103.9 Weight (%) 10 30 30 15 15

Calculate the weighted average relative price index and give your comment. (4 marks) Which food item experience the smallest increase in price? (1 mark)

ii)

b)

The following data shows the increase in relative price index for certain items in April 2009 compared to March 2009. Item Tomatoes Long beans Eggs Squids Price (RM) per kg in March 2009 15.00 20.00 8.00 15.00 % Increase in relative price index in April 2009 16.2 13.3 5.3 4.0

Calculate the price for each item in April 2009. (2 marks) Calculate the average relative price index and give your comment. (2 marks) A box contains 6 blocks; 2 are black, 3 are yellow and 1 green. Determine the number of arrangements that can be made using all blocks. (2 marks) A group of 5 students is to be selected from 20 males and 15 females to go to a debate competition. Find the number of possible selections if the group must have 3 males and 2 females. (2 marks)

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CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

d)

From the results of a survey, it was found that 25% of all cars emit excessive amounts of pollutants. If a car emits excessive amounts of pollutants, the probability that it will fail the state's vehicular emission test is 0.99. If a car does not emit excessive amounts of pollutants, the probability that it will also fail the state's vehicular emission test is 0.17. i) Draw a tree diagram to summarize the above information. (3 marks) ii) Find the probability that a car fails the state's vehicular emission test. (2 marks) If a car fails the state's vehicular emission test, find the probability that it emits excessive amount of pollutants. (2 marks)

iii)

END OF QUESTION PAPER

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APPENDIX 1 (1)

CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

FORMULA LIST Sample Measurements

Mean,

x =

2> _ I'x or
fTf
2 Z-i m-1

Median,

x = Lm +

Mode,

x = L mo +

A1

A2y

Standard Deviation, s =

n-1

I (x - x)2

or

n-1

x2

(2

s =

n-1

D f(x - X)

w\2

or

n-1

fx2

(Ifx)

Coefficient of Variation, CV=

^x100 x Mean-Mode Pearson s Measure of Skewness = Standard Deviation where n total frequency lower median class boundary lower modal class boundary

or

3(Mean-Median) Standard Deviation

U
Lmo

Zffm A,

cumulative frequencies for the classes before the median class median class frequency (modal class frequency) - (frequency for the class before the modal class) (modal class frequency) - (frequency for the class after the modal class) class size

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APPENDIX 1 (2)

CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

Correlation and Regression 1. Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coefficient

r=

n(IXY)-(IX)(ZY)

(IXY)2
or

(ZX)(IY)

[rilX^-ilXfJnlYy )-^) ]
6^d
2

(IX')-

2,

(IX)2

cn

(IY) 2

2. Spearman's Rank Correlation: p% = 1 -

n(n2-l)

3. The least- squares regression line of Y against X, Y = a + bX (SXY)

'(EX)(EY)N n
2N

(i)

n(XY)-(SX)(SY) n(SX 2 )-(EX) 2

(SXO-

(SX) 2 ^

(ii)

KV

(y)

u(^X)

a = Y-bX

or

^-^-b--

index Numbers 1. Laspeyres Price Index = ^ - x 1 00 XPOCI Paasche Price Index =

2.

_ ZPtQt EPo^t

x100 x100
ZPO

3.

Simple Aggregate Price Index =

4.

Weighted Aggregate Price Index = - ^ x100 w where p0 = price of the base year pt = price of the current year q 0 = quantity of the base year qt = quantity of the current year w = weights

y p.w Z Po

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APPENDIX 1 (3)

CS/SEP 2011/QMT181/212/216

Probability Theory 1. Conditional Probability

P(AIB)=P(AnB) P(B) 2. Multiplicative Rule a) P(AnB) = P(B).P(AIB) b) P(A n B ) = P(A).P(B) if and if only if A and B are independent events. 3. Bayes Theorem P(AIB)P(A).P(BIA) P(A).P(BIA) + P(A').P(BIA')

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