HavellsIndia CompanyUpdate5Jun24 Research
HavellsIndia CompanyUpdate5Jun24 Research
HavellsIndia CompanyUpdate5Jun24 Research
HOLD
TP: Rs 1,780 | 1%
HAVELLS INDIA | Consumer Durables | 05 June 2024
Healthy FY24 performance; EBITDA margin expansion of 40bps YoY; Arshia Khosla
[email protected]
Lloyd turns profitable in Q4
Healthy performance amid lacklustre demand: Throughout FY24, HAVL Key changes
exhibited healthy overall performance with revenue at Rs 186bn (+9.9% YoY). Target Rating
Infrastructure-led segments, buoyed by government's consistent emphasis on
infrastructure development, experienced strong growth trajectories. Conversely, B2C
segments encountered challenges in a subdued consumer demand landscape. Ticker/Price HAVL IN/Rs 1,793
Market cap US$ 13.7bn
Expanding access into rural market: With the aim of enhancing product Free float 41%
accessibility, the company expanded into emerging channels such as modern format 3M ADV US$ 26.4mn
retail, e-commerce, and quick commerce. Additionally, through the Rural Vistaar 52wk high/low Rs 1,985/Rs 1,233
programme, HAVL made efforts to establish a retail presence in towns with Promoter/FPI/DII 60%/23%/10%
Source: NSE | Price as of 5 Jun 2024
populations of less than 10,000, resulting in the addition of over 250 UTSAV stores
this year alone, bringing the total to over 600. Key financials
Y/E 31 Mar FY24A FY25E FY26E
Manufacturing focus: Manufacturing is a key strength for HAVL and its gross block Total revenue (Rs mn) 185,900 211,581 240,871
expanded at 15% CAGR over the past 10 years. This growth continued post the EBITDA (Rs mn) 18,426 23,647 28,854
acquisition of Lloyd as the company commissioned a new plant at Sri City, taking its Adj. net profit (Rs mn) 12,708 17,217 21,093
total air conditioner capacity to 1mn units per year. Capex for FY24 was ~Rs 7bn. Adj. EPS (Rs) 20.3 27.5 33.7
Consensus EPS (Rs) 20.3 27.3 33.2
Higher R&D investment: The company incurred R&D spend of Rs 2.06bn in FY24, Adj. ROAE (%) 18.1 21.4 22.4
rising at 18% CAGR over FY19-FY24. It has nearly tripled spends from Rs 790mn in Adj. P/E (x) 88.4 65.2 53.2
FY19 to keep pace with the changing consumer environment. EV/EBITDA (x) 61.0 47.5 38.9
Adj. EPS growth (%) 18.6 35.5 22.5
Source: Company, Bloomberg, BOBCAPS Research
Expansive distribution reach: HAVL's vast network includes around ~0.3mn
retailers and electricians each, with 18,000 dealers and 8,718 active vendors. This Stock performance
network boosts product availability across markets. Efforts to onboard new
HAVL NSE Nifty (Relative)
electricians led to a significant monthly increase of 5% in enrolments. 1,920
1,720
Maintain HOLD: Despite acknowledging HAVL's strengths such as its strong brand, 1,520
extensive distribution network, and growth potential, we remain cautious as its 1,320
1,120
valuations are high. As a result, we maintain HOLD. Our TP for HAVL remains Rs
920
1,780, with a target multiple of 53x FY26E P/E.
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
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Sep-22
Dec-22
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Source: NSE
Growth trends
Fig 1 – Revenue growth Fig 2 – EBITDA growth
(Rs mn) Revenue Growth YoY (R) (%) (Rs mn) EBITDA Growth YoY (R) (%)
200,000 40 20,000 60
180,000 18,000 50
30
160,000 16,000
20 40
140,000 14,000
120,000 12,000 30
10
100,000 10,000 20
80,000 0 8,000 10
60,000 (10) 6,000
0
40,000 4,000
(20) (10)
20,000 2,000
0 (30) 0 (20)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research
(Rs mn) Core Net Income Growth YoY (R) (%) (days) Inventory Receivables Payables Working Capital Cycle
14,000 50 200
12,000 40
150
10,000 30
100
8,000 20
6,000 10 50
4,000 0 0
2,000 (10)
(50)
0 (20)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 (100) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research
20 40
30
15
20
10
10
5
0
0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 (10) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research
HAVL increased margins in FY24 through premiumisation efforts, cost efficiencies, and
the favourable impact of softer commodity prices. The company maintained a strong
financial position, remaining free of debt, and consistently delivering on its dividend
payout track record. This was underpinned by HAVL’s ability to generate strong cash
flows.
Manufacturing focus
HAVL has long practised ‘Make in India’, manufacturing 90% of its products in-
house.
All manufacturing plants are unique, based on different technologies, but have fully
integrated manufacturing set-ups. Each plant is equipped with a high level of in-
house manufacturing, with all major components produced under the same roof.
HAVL has procured automatic high-tech machines from Japan, Europe, and other
leading manufacturers across the globe.
AC plant operational at Sri City: Manufacturing operations at Sri City Plant are in
full swing, capable of producing up to 1mn AC units annually. This cutting-edge
facility incorporates seamless manufacturing processes and produces all essential
components in-house. With advanced machinery and processes supported by its
manufacturing execution systems (MES), the plant efficiently manages its
operations, with women employees skillfully managing major tasks.
According to HAVL, its newly established Lighting and EMS Division provides a
holistic solution for all EMS requirements, encompassing PCB Design, PCB
Assembly, Product Assembly and Testing in a single facility for multiple business
units.
The facility boasts the capability to manufacture innovative and smart lighting
products, encompassing a diverse range of LED drivers ranging from 3W to 250W.
It produces smart LED drivers equipped with advanced features like dimming and
tunable white, utilising technologies such as DALI (Digital Addressable Lighting
Interface), Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) and
GPRS (General Packet Radio Service).
Research and development spend for FY24 was Rs 2.06bn. The R&D team
strength is 713 and HAVL has four R&D centres across India.
HAVL has directed significant efforts towards rural markets through its Rural
Vistaar programme. This programme places particular emphasis on establishing
retail presence in towns with populations of below 10,000, a segment often
overlooked by traditional retail strategies.
In FY24, the company significantly slashed its import reliance to under 15%. It
efficiently secured 44% of its needs from suppliers situated within a 100km radius,
thus mitigating freight expenses and transport vulnerabilities.
Segmental performance
Switchgears
HAVL remains optimistic that the increase in new real estate launches will have a
positive impact on the demand for switches and other electrical categories.
Cables
Power cables: As demand for power cables grows steadily, HAVL's expansion
was constrained by capacity limitations through the year. To address this issue, the
company is actively pursuing greenfield expansion of its power cables capacity in
Tumkur, Karnataka, expecting to commission the plant in early FY25.
Flexible cables: During the year, HAVL intensified its efforts in flexible cables,
prioritising deeper penetration into semi-urban and rural markets while expanding
existing distribution channels. Leveraging a multi-brand strategy with HAVL,
Standard and REO, the company aimed to cater to diverse customer segments and
establish a distinct product hierarchy.
During the year HAVL concentrated on advancing its Brushless Direct Current
(BLDC) and Super premium BLDC+ range as part of its premiumisation strategy
across all fan segments. With nearly 40 models now in the BLDC range, HAVL
boasts the largest assortment of BLDC fans among its peers in our coverage
universe with distinct offerings, steadily increasing its BLDC share to over 20%.
Lighting
In FY24, amid significant price erosion in LEDs within the lighting industry, HAVL
maintained its commitment to customer-centricity and product innovation across its
two business units, Consumer Lighting and Professional Lighting, consolidating its
market position and resilience.
Lloyd
Lloyd boosted its presence in general trade and ventured into emerging channels
like organised retail and e-commerce. In organised retail, the focus was on
expanding counter share by investing in in-store demonstrators (ISDs). Also, Lloyd
introduced the Sales & Service Dealership (SSD) channel by establishing exclusive
Lloyd Gallery stores nationwide.
Valuation methodology
HAVL has solidified its position as a formidable player within the consumer durables
sector, showcasing a diversified portfolio across multiple categories. This diversified
presence is underpinned by a robust balance sheet, allowing the company to concentrate
on specific business segments, as evidenced by its approach to Lloyd.
While we recognise the strengths of HAVL's core offerings, including its strong brand
recognition, expansive distribution network and inherent growth drivers, we remain
cautious due to the stock's expensive valuations. Therefore, we maintain our HOLD
rating on the stock.
Our TP for HAVL stands at Rs 1,780, with an unchanged target multiple of 53x FY26E
P/E. This valuation aligns with the stock's three-year average, reflecting a balanced
assessment of its growth prospects and market positioning.
Key risks
Financials
Income Statement Per Share
Y/E 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E Y/E 31 Mar (Rs) FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
Total revenue 139,385 169,107 185,900 211,581 240,871 Reported EPS 19.1 17.1 20.3 27.5 33.7
EBITDA 17,604 15,991 18,426 23,647 28,854 Adjusted EPS 19.1 17.1 20.3 27.5 33.7
Depreciation 2,609 2,962 3,385 3,128 3,352 Dividend per share 7.5 7.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
EBIT 14,995 13,030 15,041 20,519 25,502 Book value per share 95.8 105.8 118.9 137.8 163.0
Net interest inc./(exp.) (534) (336) (457) (479) (493)
Other inc./(exp.) 1,604 1,777 2,490 2,614 2,745 Valuations Ratios
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0 0 Y/E 31 Mar (x) FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
EBT 16,066 14,471 17,074 22,655 27,754 EV/Sales 8.1 6.6 6.0 5.3 4.7
Income taxes 4,101 3,753 4,366 5,437 6,661 EV/EBITDA 63.8 70.2 61.0 47.5 38.9
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted P/E 93.9 104.8 88.4 65.2 53.2
Min. int./Inc. from assoc. 0 0 0 0 0 P/BV 18.7 17.0 15.1 13.0 11.0
Reported net profit 11,965 10,717 12,708 17,217 21,093
Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 DuPont Analysis
Adjusted net profit 11,965 10,717 12,708 17,217 21,093 Y/E 31 Mar (%) FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
Tax burden (Net profit/PBT) 74.5 74.1 74.4 76.0 76.0
Balance Sheet Interest burden (PBT/EBIT) 107.1 111.1 113.5 110.4 108.8
Y/E 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenue) 10.8 7.7 8.1 9.7 10.6
Accounts payables 23,800 26,432 26,919 34,780 39,595 Asset turnover (Rev./Avg TA) 4.1 4.7 7.1 7.6 8.1
Other current liabilities 10,881 11,562 15,305 14,465 16,468 Leverage (Avg TA/Avg Equity) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3
Provisions 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted ROAE 21.4 17.0 18.1 21.4 22.4
Debt funds 3,955 2,231 3,032 3,191 3,287
Other liabilities 6,567 5,095 4,604 5,240 5,966 Ratio Analysis
Equity capital 626 627 627 627 627 Y/E 31 Mar FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
Reserves & surplus 59,403 65,628 73,841 85,733 101,501 YoY growth (%)
Shareholders’ fund 60,029 66,255 74,468 86,360 102,127 Revenue 33.3 21.3 9.9 13.8 13.8
Total liab. and equities 105,232 111,574 124,327 144,037 167,443 EBITDA 12.0 (9.2) 15.2 28.3 22.0
Cash and cash eq. 27,014 18,702 30,382 37,433 50,160 Adjusted EPS 14.6 (10.4) 18.6 35.5 22.5
Accounts receivables 7,663 9,739 11,650 12,722 14,789 Profitability & Return ratios (%)
Inventories 29,681 37,086 34,086 42,598 46,330 EBITDA margin 12.6 9.5 9.9 11.2 12.0
Other current assets 1,708 5,135 2,879 1,419 1,615 EBIT margin 10.8 7.7 8.1 9.7 10.6
Investments 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted profit margin 8.6 6.3 6.8 8.1 8.8
Net fixed assets 34,336 36,236 26,063 27,935 29,583 Adjusted ROAE 21.4 17.0 18.1 21.4 22.4
CWIP 572 1,634 2,969 3,379 3,847 ROCE 18.5 17.0 20.5 21.0 22.0
Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 Working capital days (days)
Deferred tax assets, net 0 0 0 0 0 Receivables 20 21 23 22 22
Other assets 4,258 3,042 16,299 18,551 21,119 Inventory 78 80 67 73 70
Total assets 105,232 111,574 124,327 144,037 167,443 Payables 62 57 53 60 60
Ratios (x)
Cash Flows Gross asset turnover 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.6 4.7
Y/E 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E Current ratio 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
Cash flow from operations 17,278 5,649 19,529 19,243 25,267 Net interest coverage ratio 28.1 38.8 32.9 42.9 51.7
Capital expenditures (2,528) (5,855) (7,591) (5,000) (5,000) Adjusted debt/equity 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in investments 0 5,004 (10,371) 0 0 Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research | Note: TA = Total Assets
Other investing cash flows (5,067) 1,201 1,823 (2,026) (2,310)
Cash flow from investing (7,595) 350 (16,139) (7,026) (7,310)
Equities issued/Others 312 267 0 0 0
Debt raised/repaid 0 (4,563) (848) 159 96
Interest expenses 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (5,783) (4,773) (4,488) (5,325) (5,325)
Other financing cash flows 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (5,472) (9,069) (5,335) (5,166) (5,230)
Chg in cash & cash eq. 4,212 (3,070) (1,945) 7,052 12,727
Closing cash & cash eq. 27,014 18,702 30,382 37,433 50,160
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Ratings and Target Price (3-year history): HAVELLS INDIA (HAVL IN)
30-Apr (H)
(Rs) HAVL stock price BOBCAPS Research
TP:Rs 1780
1,920
1,120
920
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B – Buy, H – Hold, S – Sell, A – Add, R – Reduce
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